While Republicans, and particularly the new Tea Party lawmakers who joined them on Capitol Hill this year, spearheaded the drive to put deficit reduction front and center, the issue had risen at least modestly in the list of public concerns. A January survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press  showed a gradual rise in public concern about the deficit with 64% citing it as a top policy priority for 2011, compared with 60% the previous year and 53% in January 2009.

But public support for deficit reduction as the top economic priority over the job situation has been weakening under the weight of increasingly bad economic news in recent months resulting from the fragile recovery and the failure of the jobs market to improve.

A Pew Research Center/Washington Post poll conducted Sept. 1-4 shows a steady rise since March – from 34% to 43% – in the percentage of those saying that the job situation is the economic issue that worries them most. Those citing the budget deficit as their top worry declined from 28% in May and 29% in July to 22% in September.

A mid-August poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found a similar trend on a somewhat different measure.

In June, 52% had said the higher priority for government should be reducing the deficit, compared with 42% who favored spending to help the economy recovery. But the August poll showed the public almost evenly divided over whether the higher priority should be spending to help the economy recover (47%) or reducing the budget deficit (46%).

Those results showed the same sharp partisan split that characterized the budget battles throughout the year. Republicans favored deficit reduction over spending to help the economy by 66% to 29% and GOP Tea Party adherents held that view even more strongly, 82% to 16%. Democrats favored stimulus over spending reduction by 61% to 32%.

The big factor driving down overall public preference for deficit reduction over stimulus since June was a change in outlook among independents. In June, they favored deficit reduction over stimulus by a 54% to 39% margin, but in the August survey, 47% backed spending on the economy while 46% stuck by deficit reduction as the higher priority.

The recent shifts in public opinion on the importance of deficit reduction come in the context of the bad economic news that is saturating Americans at the moment. The News Interest Index conducted Sept. 1-4 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that 61% of those surveyed said they were hearing “mostly bad” news about the economy.

That number was down slightly from August, but was up nearly 40 points since the beginning of 2011. As has been the case for nearly three years, very few Americans, just 2%, said the news they were hearing about the economy was mostly good.

When asked which economic issue worries them most, nearly twice as many Americans cite the job situation as the federal budget deficit (43% to 22%). There is less clarity in the public’s views about ideas to address the job situation – many are seen as helping at least a little, but no specific proposal emerges as a silver bullet.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted September 1-4, 2011 among 1,001 adults, finds that large majorities say additional spending on infrastructure, cutting the federal budget deficit and tax cuts for businesses and individuals would do at least a little to improve the job situation. But there is no consensus that any of these ideas would do a lot to help.

More than three-quarters of Americans say that additional spending on roads, bridges and other public works would improve the job situation a lot (36%) or a little (41%). Smaller majorities say that cutting taxes on businesses (70%), budget cuts to reduce the deficit (65%) and cutting personal income taxes (60%) would do a lot or a little to help the job situation.

For the most part, these opinions are little changed from a June 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. There continue to be wide partisan differences in views of proposals to improve the job situation. But none of the proposals is viewed by a majority of Republicans, Democrats or independents as helping the jobs situation a lot.

Nearly half of Democrats (48%) say that additional spending on roads, bridges and other public works would help the job situation a lot, far more than the percentages saying tax cuts or budget cuts would help a lot. Among Republicans, 47% say budget cuts to reduce the deficit would help a lot, while 43% say cutting taxes on businesses would help a lot and 37% see personal tax cuts as helping a lot.

The proportion of Republicans who say that cutting taxes on business would do a lot to help the job situation has declined, from 55% last summer to 43% currently. Opinions have been more stable among Democrats and independents.

The survey finds that the job situation remains the public’s top economic worry by a wide margin: 43% say the job situation is the national economic issue that worries them most. Far fewer cite the budget deficit (22%), rising prices (17%) or problems in financial or housing markets (11%).

In July, jobs also were the top economic worry, but by a smaller margin (39% job situation vs. 29% budget deficit). Since then, more Democrats cite the job situation as the economic issues that most worries them (55% today, 43% in July), while the percentage of Democrats citing the budget deficit has fallen (from 24% then to 12% today).

Republicans’ and independents’ opinions have shown less change. In the new poll, roughly equal percentages of Republicans say the budget deficit (35%) and the job situation (31%) are their biggest economic worries. Independents cite the job situation by a wide margin (41% job situation vs. 26% budget deficit).

Nearly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say they plan to watch President Obama’s speech Thursday night to a joint session of Congress about his plans to spur job growth and help the struggling national economy.

Not surprisingly, fewer plan to watch Wednesday night’s debate in California among the candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Four-in-ten (40%) say they plan to watch the debate, while 57% say they do not plan to watch. Obama originally sought time for the speech the same night as the GOP debate, but then moved it to Thursday.

The partisan differences on these questions are wide. Three-quarters of Democrats (76%) say they plan to tune in to Obama’s address, compared with 49% of Republicans and 52% of independents. On the other hand, 63% of Republicans say they plan to watch the debate, compared with 30% of Democrats and 39% of independents.

About the same number say they plan to watch Obama’s jobs speech as said they planned to watch his address to Congress in September 2009 during the debate over health care legislation. At that point, 56% said they planned to watch the prime time speech. More Democrats said they planned to watch (72%) the speech than Republicans (41%) or independents (52%).

Those with a college degree (65%) are more likely than those with some college experience (53%) or those with a high school diploma or less (56%) to say they plan to watch Obama’s jobs speech this week. On the other hand, there are no significant differences based on household income.

By a modest margin, more say they back Wisconsin’s public employee unions rather than the state’s governor in their continuing dispute over collective bargaining rights. Roughly four-in-ten (42%) say they side more with the public employee unions, while 31% say they side more with the governor, Scott Walker, according to the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Feb. 24-27 among 1,009 adults.

In Washington, meanwhile, prospects for an imminent government shutdown decreased as Republicans and Democrats neared a short-term budget deal. However, the public is divided over who would be more to blame if the federal government were to shut down as a result of a budget impasse: 36% say Republicans would be more to blame, 35% say the Obama administration and 17% volunteer that both would be to blame. This question was asked jointly by the Pew Research and The Washington Post.

Opinions are notably different today than they were the last time a budget battle threatened a government shutdown. In November 1995, a Washington Post/ABC News survey asked a similar question and found that 46% said a possible government shutdown would be mainly the Republicans’ fault; just 27% said the bulk of the blame would fall on the Clinton administration.

The differences in opinions between now and then may well be more linked to changes in views of the GOP House Speaker rather than the Democratic president. Obama’s current approval rating of 49% is about the same as Bill Clinton’s in October 1995 (48%).

But the current House Speaker, John Boehner, is viewed far less negatively than Newt Gingrich was in 1995. In December 2010, 28% expressed a favorable opinion of Boehner while 25% had an unfavorable view. In August 1995, a few months before the budget impasse, 30% had a favorable view of Gingrich while 54% had an unfavorable opinion.

Democrats, Young, Less Affluent Side Strongly With Unions

Democrats overwhelmingly side with the government employee unions in the ongoing dispute in Wisconsin. Two- thirds (67%) say this, compared with just 12% who say they side more with the governor. About half of Republicans (53%) say they side more with Gov. Walker; 17% say they side more with the public employee unions. Independents are evenly divided (39% side more with the unions, 34% more with the governor).

Among those ages 18 to 29, nearly half (46%) say they side more with the public employee unions, while 13% say they side with the governor. Among those 65 and older, the balance is reversed – but the gap more narrow (45% say they side more with the governor, 33% with the unions).

While whites are nearly evenly divided (38% unions, 36% governor), non-white people are much more likely to say they side more with the unions that represent public employee workers (51% vs. 19%).

And while those with household incomes of $75,000 or more are divided (36% side more with the unions, 40% with the governor), those earning less clearly side more with the government employee unions. Among those with family income of less than $30,000, 46% say they side more with the unions, while 20% say they side more with the governor.

Partisan Divide on Potential Blame for Federal Shutdown

Looking at the possibility of a federal government shutdown if Republicans and the Obama administration cannot agree on a budget, partisans on both sides would put the bulk of the blame on the opposing party.

About seven-in-ten Republicans (69%) say the administration would be most to blame. Just 8% would blame their own party’s leaders. More than six-in-ten Democrats (63%) say congressional Republicans would be most responsible for any shutdown, while 11% say the administration would be most to blame. Independents are divided: 32% say Republicans and 37% say the administration would be mostly to blame. Among all three groups, 17% say both would share the blame equally.

In November 1995, just days before a standoff between congressional Republicans and the Clinton administration led to a partial government shutdown, most Democrats (71%) said Republicans would be responsible for any shutdown, while a smaller majority of Republicans (57%) put the blame on Clinton. Unlike today, many more independents said they would blame the Republicans (46%) than the Clinton administration (24%).

In early January 1996, with the government in a partial shutdown, the public continued to put more blame on the Republicans, according to a second ABC News/Washington Post survey. At that point, a plurality (44%) said the GOP was mainly to blame for the shutdown, while 25% said the Clinton administration was mainly to blame and 24% blamed both sides.

The favorability ratings for labor unions remain at nearly their lowest level in a quarter century with 45% expressing a positive view. Yet the public expresses similar opinions about business corporations – 47% have a favorable impression – and this rating is also near a historic low.

Americans express mixed views of the impact of labor unions on salaries and working conditions, international competitiveness, job availability and productivity. About half (53%) say unions have had a positive effect on the salaries and benefits of union workers, while just 17% say they have had a negative effect. Views are similar about the impact of unions on working conditions for all workers (51% positive, 17% negative).

But as many say unions have a negative effect as a positive effect on workplace productivity and on the availability of good jobs in America. And more say that unions have a negative (36%) than positive (24%) impact on the ability of U.S. companies to compete internationally.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 2-7 among 1,385 adults, finds virtually no differences in opinions about private and public sector unions.

About half (48%) say they have a favorable opinion of unions that represent workers at private companies, while 37% have an unfavorable view. The figures are nearly identical for unions that represent people who work for state or local governments – 48% have a favorable impression of these unions while 40% have an unfavorable opinion.

A previous Pew Research survey on proposals for balancing state budgets found more support for decreasing the pension plans of state government employees than for cutting programs or raising taxes. Even so, only about half (47%) favored decreasing government employee pensions to balance their state’s budget; an identical percentage said their state should not do this. (See “Fewer Want Spending to Grow, But Most Cuts Remain Unpopular,” Feb. 10, 2011.)

The new survey finds there has been little change since the mid-1990s in public support for labor unions in disputes with businesses. Currently, 43% say that when they hear of such a disagreement, their first reaction is to side with businesses; about the same number (40%) say their first reaction is to side with the unions. In 1995, the balance of opinion was about the same (36% side with unions, 43% side with businesses).

Opinions also are divided when people are asked for initial reaction to a disagreement between unions and state and local governments: 44% say that when they hear of such a dispute they side with unions, compared with 38% who say they side with governments.

In general, Americans do not believe that union agreements give union workers unfair advantages over other workers. Slightly more than half (55%) say that labor agreements ensure that union workers are treated fairly, while only about a third (34%) say the agreements give union workers unfair advantages.

Government data show that labor unions have become less of a factor in the overall U.S. economy in recent decades – most notably in the private sector. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 11.9% of wage and salary workers in the United States belonged to unions in 2010. That is down slightly from the 12.3% in 2009, but much lower than the 20.1% that belonged to unions in 1983, the first year when comparable data are available. BLS also reports that now more public sector workers belong to a union than do private sector workers.

Union Favorability Still Well Below 2007

Americans’ attitudes about labor unions changed only slightly over the past year, following a sharp downturn between early 2007 and early 2010. Currently, 45% say they have a favorable opinion about labor unions, while nearly as many (41%) say they have an unfavorable opinion.

In January 2007, 58% said they had a favorable opinion of unions; 31% had an unfavorable opinion.

Young people, Democrats and people who live in union households continue to hold the most favorable views of organized labor. About six-in-ten of those 18-29 (58%) say they have a favorable opinion of unions, compared with 37% of those 65 and older. In early 2007, a much larger percentage of older Americans (60%) had a favorable opinion of unions. The decline among younger people was modest (66% to 58%).

Six-in-ten Democrats (61%) say they have a favorable opinion, compared with 30% of Republicans and 42% of independents. In early 2007, 70% of Democrats, 47% of Republicans and 54% of independents said they had a favorable opinion of unions. There are similar partisan differences in opinions about private sector unions and public employee unions.

In the current survey, there is a little difference in opinions about labor unions based on education level or household income. Among many groups – but not all – opinions dropped between 2007 and 2010 and then made up some of that decline over the past year.

African Americans continue to offer more favorable opinions about labor unions than do whites. Currently, 62% of African Americans say they have a favorable view, compared with 43% of whites. Last year, the numbers were similar (37% for whites, 59% for blacks). Favorable opinions of labor unions among both whites and blacks were higher in 2007 (54% for whites, 75% for blacks).

Not surprisingly, members of union households also continue to see unions more favorably. About seven-in-ten in union households (69%) offer a favorable opinion, compared with 42% in non-union households. That gap was somewhat wider one year ago: 74% for union households, 36% for non-union). In early 2007, more than three- quarters (77%) of those in union households expressed a favorable opinion, compared with 54% of non-union households.

Business Favorability Also Lower

Currently, 47% say they have a favorable opinion of business corporations while 45% have an unfavorable opinion. These views are unchanged since April 2008, but are substantially less positive than in January 2007 (57% favorable, 30% unfavorable). Since early 2007, the favorability ratings for business corporations have fallen by 10 points while favorable ratings for unions have fallen by 13 points.

Over the past four years, opinions about business corporations have turned more negative among Republicans, Democrats and independents. Currently, 58% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of business while 36% have an unfavorable opinion. In January 2007, 70% of Republicans viewed corporations favorably and only 18% said they had an unfavorable opinion – half the percentage as in the current survey.

The balance of opinion among independents toward business corporations moved from positive to negative between 2007 and 2008 and has changed little since then. Democrats’ views of business corporations also turned more negative between 2007 and 2008 before recovering slightly in the current survey.

Democrats Most Likely to See Union Positives

Democrats are much more likely to offer favorable opinions of unions than either Republicans or independents. Democrats also are less likely to say that unions have a negative impact on the ability of American companies to compete in a global marketplace and the availability of good jobs in the United States.

On balance, Republicans, Democrats and independents say that labor unions have had a positive effect on union workers’ salaries and benefits, as well as working conditions for all Americans workers. However, Democrats view their impact as much more positive than either of the other groups. For example, 61% of Democrats said labor unions have had a positive effect on working conditions for all American workers; 49% of independents and 42% of Republicans agree.

Republicans, though, are much more negative than Democrats about unions’ impact on America’s ability to compete globally, workplace productivity and the availability of good jobs in the U.S. Independents tend to fall in between.

Nearly half of Republicans (47%) say unions hurt American companies’ global competitiveness, compared with 26% of Democrats. Nearly four-in-ten independents (38%) say this. About four-in-ten Democrats (39%) say unions don’t have much of an effect on this. Fewer than three-in-ten Republicans (28%) or independents (26%) agree.

Higher-Income Americans See More Negative Effects

People across income levels say that labor unions have had a positive effect on both union members’ salaries and benefits and working conditions for all American workers. People with higher family incomes, however, are more critical of unions’ impact on American competitiveness and workplace productivity.

More than half of those with annual family income of $75,000 or more (54%) say that unions hurt companies’ ability to compete in a global marketplace. About four-in-ten (38%) of those earning between $30,000 and $74,999 agree, as do 22% of those earning less than $30,000. About a third in each of the lower income groups says unions do not have much of an effect on this (35% for those with income of less than $30,000, 32% for those with income between $30,000 and $74,999). Just 22% of those earning at least $75,000 a year say this.

Higher wage earners also are more likely to see a negative impact on productivity. More than four-in-ten (44%) say unions have a negative effect on workplace productivity, compared with 33% of those earning between $30,000 and $74,999 and just 19% of those earning less than $30,000.

Union Membership and Perceptions of Labor’s Impact

Households with current union members offer much more positive views on the impact of unions than those made up of former union members or people who have never belonged to a union.

For example, about half of those who say they or their spouse (52%) is currently a member of a labor union say unions have had a positive effect on the availability of good jobs in the United States. That drops to 31% among former union members and 28% among those never in a union.

Current union households also are more likely to say that unions have a positive effect on workplace productivity. Nearly half (48%) say this, compared with 34% of those in former union households and 31% among those never in a union.

More Say Union Contracts Protect Than Give Unfair Edge

A majority of the public sees union agreements as ensuring fair treatment for union workers (55%), rather than giving union workers unfair advantages (34%).

Asked which statement comes closer to their views, two-thirds of Democrats (67%) say the agreements protect union workers, while 25% say they give union workers unfair advantages. Independents show a similar balance, though not as large a divide (55% to 34%). Among Republicans, 48% say the agreements give union workers unfair advantages while 42% say they ensure fair treatment.

More than six-in-ten (63%) of those earning less than $30,000 say the agreements ensure fair treatment for union workers. Nearly as many (56%) of those earning between $30,000 and $74,999 agree. Those earning at least $75,000 are more evenly divided: 47% say unions ensure fair treatment for union workers, while 45% say they give union workers unfair advantages.

Looking at union membership, 63% of those with household members ever in a union say union agreements ensure fair treatment for union workers. Half of those in households where neither spouse has ever belonged to a union agree.

Consistent with the mood of the nation all year, 2010 is closing on a down note. Fully 72% are dissatisfied with national conditions, 89% rate national economic conditions as only fair or poor, and majorities or pluralities think the country is losing ground on nine of 12 major issues.

The public is especially bearish about the federal budget deficit, the cost of living, the financial condition of Social Security and the availability of good-paying jobs. At least six-in-ten say the country is losing ground in each of these areas.

Smaller majorities say the nation is losing ground on the gap between rich and poor (58%), the ability to compete economically with other countries (55%) and the financial condition of Medicare (51%).

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 1-5 among 1,500 adults, finds only two issues where relatively small minorities say the United States is losing ground – international terrorism (25% losing ground) and environmental pollution (23%). Even in these areas, however, most Americans do not see progress being achieved; rather, pluralities say things are staying about the same as they have been.

Yet Americans’ views about how the nation is doing on several major issues have improved since December 2008, a time when Americans expressed an even more negative view of the economy than they do today. Opinions among Republicans and Democrats also have changed substantially since then, shortly before President Obama took office. On many issues, the percentage of Republicans saying the nation is losing ground has increased, while the percentage of Democrats expressing this view has declined.

This shift has been particularly dramatic in opinions about the way the health care system is working. Currently, 67% of Republicans say the country is losing ground on health care, up from 41% two years ago. Opinion among Democrats has moved as sharply in the opposite direction: 33% now say the country is losing ground, down from 67% in December 2008.

The survey finds that while the vast majority of Americans take a negative view of current economic conditions, many see recovery as a long way off. Just 17% think the economy is now recovering while 33% say recovery will occur soon. Nearly half (48%) say it will be a long time before the economy recovers, which is little changed from earlier this year.

Jobs remain the public’s primary economic concern. Nearly half (47%) cite the job situation as the economic issue that worries them most; far fewer say the federal budget deficit (19%), rising prices (15%) or problems in the financial markets (14%). (For more, see “Deficit Solutions Meet with Public Skepticism,” Dec. 9, 2010).

Perceptions about the availability of jobs, both locally among the public and in people’s line of work among those with jobs, have worsened as the unemployment rate has risen. Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say jobs are difficult to find in their community, while just 14% say there are plenty of jobs available. In February 2008, more than twice as many (34%) said jobs were plentiful. And 65% of those working full- or part-time say jobs in their line of work are difficult to find in their community, up from 46% in early 2008.

Moreover, 46% of Americans say there has been time in the past year when they or someone in their household has been without a job and looking for work.

The survey finds that a majority of the public (57%) says it is very difficult or difficult to afford things they really want. About the same percentage said this two years ago (55%). And for many Americans, affording basic necessities remains a struggle – 51% say it is difficult to afford health care, 48% say the same about their home heating and electric bills, and 29% say it is difficult to afford food.

Looking ahead to next year, most Americans (55%) say that 2011 will be better than 2010, while 31% say the coming year will be worse. But there was even more optimism at the start of this year: In January, 67% said that 2010 would be a better year than 2009.

The public overwhelmingly views the job situation as a major priority for Congress during the coming months. Fully 80% say it is very important for Congress to pass legislation to address the job situation, which is virtually unchanged from May (81%).

Somewhat fewer (70%) say it is very important for Congress to reduce the federal budget deficit. Nearly as many (66%) see addressing the country’s energy needs as very important, while 63% say the same about addressing immigration policy. About half (53%) say it is very important for Congress to pass legislation that would more strictly regulate financial institutions and markets.

As with opinions about the importance of dealing with the job situation, views about energy, financial regulation and immigration also have changed little since May. That survey did not ask about the importance of reducing the federal budget deficit.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, which was conducted July 8-11 among 1,001 adults, finds a growing partisan gap over the importance of Congress addressing the job situation. Nearly nine-in-ten Democrats (89%) view jobs as a very important priority for lawmakers to address, compared with 72% of Republicans. In May, comparable percentages of Democrats (84%) and Republicans (81%) said that it was very important for Congress to address the job situation.

Since May, partisan differences also have increased over the importance of addressing the country’s energy needs. Nearly eight-in-ten Democrats (79%) see this as a very important objective for Congress, compared with 63% of independents and just 52% of Republicans.

More Democrats than Republicans also continue to view stricter regulation of financial institutions as a very important priority for Congress (65% vs. 39%). These opinions have changed little from May. By contrast, there are no significant partisan differences in views of the importance of reducing the federal budget deficit and addressing immigration policy.

Notably, nearly identical percentages of Republicans view reducing the federal budget deficit (73%) and addressing the job situation (72%) as very important. Far more Democrats rate jobs as very important than say that about deficit reduction (89% vs. 69%). Independents also place greater priority on addressing jobs than on reducing the deficit, though by a smaller margin (77% vs. 67%).

HEALTH CARE LEGISLATION REMAINS UNPOPULAR

Almost four months after the passage of major health care legislation, the law remains unpopular with the public. Nearly half of Americans (47%) disapprove of the health care law while just 35% approve of the measure. An overwhelming proportion of opponents of health care legislation – 37% of the public overall – favor repealing the legislation as soon as possible. Just 7% say they want to let the law stand and see how it works.

Public opinion toward health care legislation remained very stable in the months leading up to the bill’s passage, and that has continued to be the case. Opinion about the legislation is somewhat more favorable among those younger than 30 than among older Americans; still, nearly as many young people disapprove (38%) as approve (40%) of the law. Among older age groups, opposition surpasses support by significant margins.

While whites disapprove of the law by nearly two-to-one (55% to 29%), non-whites approve of the measure by roughly the same margin (52% to 28%). There also continues to be a wide partisan divide in opinions about health care legislation: Republicans disapprove of the law by about eight-to-one (82% to 10%) and fully 69% favor its repeal. Democrats approve of the legislation, but by a less lopsided margin (65% to 17%), and 12% say it should be repealed. Just 30% of independents approve of the law, while 52% disapprove; 37% of independents say the law should be repealed as soon as possible.

(For more on public attitudes toward health care legislation prior to passage, see “Gloomy Americans Bash Congress, Are Divided on Obama” March 18, 2010.)

MORE OPPOSITION THAN SUPPORT FOR U.S. CHALLENGE OF ARIZONA LAW

More Americans disapprove than approve of the U.S. Justice Department’s decision to challenge the state of Arizona’s recently passed immigration law in federal court.

Just under half (45%) say they disapprove of the federal government’s decision to file a lawsuit seeking to overturn the law; 36% say they approve of the move, according to the latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM. About two-in-ten (19%) say they do not know.

There are large partisan differences over support for the federal lawsuit challenging the Arizona law. By a margin of more than three-to-one (67% to 20%), Republicans disapprove of the suit filed by the Obama administration on July 6, while more Democrats (49%) approve of the decision than disapprove (28%). Independents mirror the public as a whole (36% approve, 49% disapprove).

Young people are more supportive than older people of the Justice Department action. Almost half of those ages 18-29 (47%) approve of the decision to file the legal challenge, while 29% disapprove. Among those 65 and older, the sentiments are reversed. Close to six-in-ten (58%) disapprove of the decision, while 25% approve.

In late June, a Pew Research survey found broad support for the Arizona measure. The law, set to take effect July 29, gives police greater authority to investigate the legal status of anyone they have stopped or arrested if they suspect that the person is in the country illegally. By two-to-one (64% to 32%), more said they favored than opposed the law. More than eight-in-ten Republicans (84%) said they approved of the law, along with 65% of independents. Democrats were divided (50% approved, 46% disapproved).

In addition to support for the Arizona law, the June survey found strong support for providing a way for illegal immigrants currently in the country to gain legal citizenship if they pass background checks, pay fines and have jobs. Support for the so-called path to citizenship had increased somewhat from 2009 (from 63% to 68%).

OPINION ABOUT AFGHAN WAR LARGELY STABLE

Public opinion about the war in Afghanistan has been relatively stable over the last several months. Today, a 49% plurality says that the military effort in Afghanistan is going very (9%) or fairly (40%) well, while 40% say the effort is going not too (31%) or not at all (9%) well.

Opinion about the war is little changed since a Pew Research Center poll conducted in the middle of last month. A week before Gen. David Petraeus took over command of U.S. forces in Afghanistan from Gen. Stanley McChrystal, 48% of Americans said things were going well in Afghanistan while 45% said they were not going very well.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, which was conducted July 8-11 among 1,001 adults, also finds that the public is divided over whether the United States and NATO should keep military
troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized. Nearly half (47%) say the troops should remain until the situation is stable, while 42% say they should be removed as soon as possible. This is largely unchanged from mid-June, when 53% favored keeping U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan and 40% were opposed.

There continue to be partisan differences in views of how soon to bring troops home from Afghanistan. Today, just 36% of Democrats say that troops should remain until the situation in Afghanistan is stabilized while 51% say they should be removed as soon as possible. Republicans by greater than two-to-one (65% to 26%), favor maintaining troops in Afghanistan. Independents are divided over whether U.S. and NATO forces should remain (46%) or be removed (44%).

There is broad public agreement that past government policies intended to address the financial crisis and recession have not worked. At the same time, there is very little agreement about what the government should do now to deal with the nation’s biggest economic concern – the job situation.

None of the options currently under discussion for dealing with the job situation are viewed as very helpful. In fact, fewer than four-in-ten say each of these proposals would help the job situation a lot: additional spending on public works (37%); cutting taxes for businesses (36%) or individuals (31%); budget cuts to reduce the deficit (34%); or providing money to state and local governments to help them avoid layoffs (33%).

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, which was conducted June 17-20 among 1,009 adults, finds that majorities do think each proposal would at least do a little to help the job situation. Relatively few say the proposals would not help the job situation at all, although slightly more say this about cutting personal income taxes (29%) than the other options.

The survey finds continued public skepticism about the impact of last year’s economic stimulus legislation, as well as the government’s loans to troubled banks and financial institutions. Six-in-ten (60%) say the stimulus has not helped the job situation while just a third (33%) say that it has helped.

A majority (54%) also says that the government’s loans to troubled financial institutions did not help prevent a more severe economic crisis, while 38% say it did help. Opinions about the impact of the financial bailout, like views of the stimulus, have changed little changed since April.

Little Enthusiasm for any Job Remedies

There are sizable partisan differences in views about the effectiveness of proposals to address the job situation. Still, none of these options gets an overwhelmingly positive response from Republicans, Democrats or independents.

Indeed, cutting business taxes is the only proposal viewed by a majority of Republicans (55%) as helping the job situation a lot. None of the options are viewed as very helpful by a majority of Democrats or independents.

More than four-in-ten Democrats (44%) say additional spending on public works would do a lot to help the job situation while 40% say the same about providing money to state and local governments to avoid layoffs. Far fewer see tax cuts for businesses (22%), budgets cuts to reduce the deficit (22%) or tax cuts for individuals (20%) as helping a lot. Independents’ views about proposals to improve the job situation show little variance – between 34% and 37% view them as helping a lot.

Still Skeptical of Stimulus, TARP

People with less education and lower incomes are particularly skeptical of the impact of last year’s economic stimulus legislation on the job situation.

Just 28% of those with no more than a high school education say the stimulus has helped the job situation, compared with 44% of college graduates. Only about three-in-ten (29%) of those with family incomes of less than $30,000 view the impact of the stimulus positively; that compares with 39% of those with family incomes of $75,000 or more.

Republicans have an overwhelmingly negative view of the effect of the stimulus: 80% say it has not helped the job situation. Most independents (59%) also say the stimulus has not helped. A narrow majority of Democrats (53%) say the stimulus has helped the job situation, though 40% disagree.

The public’s views of the impact of government loans to troubled banks and financial institutions have changed little since April. But college graduates and Republicans, in particular, have grown more skeptical of the bailout.

Fewer than half of college graduates (45%) now say that the bailout helped prevent a more severe economic crisis, down from 56% in April. And just a quarter of Republicans (25%) now say that the financial bailout helped prevent a worse crisis, down from 35% in April. Opinions among Democrats and independents are virtually unchanged over the last two months.

MORE GIVE ADMINISTRATION POOR RATINGS FOR OIL LEAK RESPONSE

Over the past month, the public’s views of how both the Obama administration and BP have handled the Gulf oil leak have changed only modestly. Still, a significantly higher percentage gives the administration a poor rating now (35%) than did so last month (26%), largely because Republicans have grown much more critical of its handling of the oil leak.

The administration continues to get much higher marks for its response to the oil leak than does BP. Currently, 33% rate the administration’s response to the leak as excellent or good; another 29% say the administration has done only fair. Both measures are little changed from May.

By contrast, just 18% give positive ratings to BP’s response, while 28% say it has been only fair. And even with the rise in poor ratings for the Obama administration, many more rate BP’s response to the oil leak as poor (49%) than say that about the administration’s response (35%).

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, which was conducted June 17-20 among 1,009 adults, finds that opinions about the administration’s response to the oil leak have become more partisan since May. Currently, 64% of Republicans rate the administration’s response as poor, up from 44% last month. Republicans now are less critical of BP than of the administration; fewer than half (47%) of Republicans say BP has done a poor job in responding to the leak.

By contrast, Democratic evaluations of the administration’s response to the leak have become somewhat more positive (48% excellent/good in May, 59% excellent/good today). As was the case in May, independents are divided: 30% say the administration has done an excellent or good job, 31% only fair, while 35% say the administration has done a poor job in responding to the leak.

MIXED VIEWS OF KAGAN NOMINATION, MANY OFFER NO OPINION

With Senate hearings on Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court set to begin June 28, the public remains divided over whether she should be confirmed, though many still express no opinion. On balance, more Americans support Kagan’s nomination than oppose it (by 33% to 25%), but more than four-in-ten (42%) say they do not know or decline to offer an opinion.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, which was conducted June 17-20 among 1,009 adults, finds that views of Kagan have changed little since President Obama announced his choice on May 10. A Congressional Connection Poll conducted May 13-16 found 33% supporting Kagan’s confirmation, 21% opposed, and 46% with no opinion.

In recent weeks, the nomination has received scant coverage and generated little controversy. According to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism, the nomination accounted for 13% of the newshole in the week immedia
tely after President Obama unveiled his pick, but 1% or less of overall news coverage in each succeeding week.

Heading into the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings, views of Kagan are comparable to those of President George W. Bush’s second and third nominees, Harriet Miers and Samuel Alito. Miers, a one-time White House counsel, withdrew her nomination in the fall of 2005 amid questions about her qualifications. Several months later, the Senate, then controlled by Republicans, confirmed Alito on a 58-42 vote on Jan. 31, 2006.

The divided opinion about Kagan stands in contrast to the broader support for Sonia Sotomayor last year after Obama nominated the former appeals court judge to the Supreme Court. Last June, twice as many said the Senate should confirm Sotomayor as opposed her confirmation (50% vs. 25%). The Senate voted 68-31 to confirm Sotomayor on Aug. 6, 2009.

Continued Partisan Divide over Kagan Nomination

More than half (54%) of Democrats say Kagan should be confirmed, compared with 17% of Republicans and 33% of independents. Democratic support is unchanged from when the question was first asked in mid-May.

Among Republicans, 43% say Kagan should not be confirmed, slightly higher than the 35% that said this in May. Independents mirror the public as a whole – 33% say Kagan should be confirmed, while 25% say she should not be. About four-in-ten in each group offer no opinion.

Last June, Sotomayor, whose nomination sparked more controversy than Kagan’s has so far, had broader support from all partisan groups. About seven-in-ten Democrats (69%) said she should be confirmed, along with 47% of independents and 30% of Republicans.

Currently, men are evenly split over Kagan’s nomination; 32% say she should be confirmed, 30% say she should not, while 38% offer no opinion. Women are somewhat more supportive (34% confirm vs. 20% oppose) while 46% have no opinion. Last year, nearly half of men (47%) supported Sotomayor’s confirmation while 28% were opposed. Women favored Sotomayor’s confirmation by more than two-to-one (52% to 22%).

No Consensus on Kagan’s Ideology

The survey also finds that many Americans are unsure of Kagan’s political ideology: 28% say they think she is liberal, while 24% say they see her as moderate. Just 7% see her as conservative. Four-in-ten (41%) offer no opinion or say they do not know.

Republicans are much more likely to see Kagan as liberal (45%) than Democrats (17%) or independents (29%). Democrats, meanwhile, are more likely to see the nominee as moderate. Close to four-in-ten (38%) say they think she is moderate, compared with 13% of Republicans and 23% of independents.

The public views tougher regulations on financial institutions as an important priority for Congress, but far more want Congress to take action on the job situation and energy policy. In thinking about financial regulation, as many say they worry that the government will go too far in regulating financial markets, making it harder for the economy to grow, as say they worry that the government will not go far enough, leaving the country at risk of another financial crisis.

Congress’s overall job ratings remain abysmal. More generally, most Americans express little or no confidence in Washington to make progress over the next year on the biggest issues facing the country. Finally, Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, who began making the rounds on Capitol Hill last week, draws mixed ratings from the public, while nearly half offer no opinion about her Senate confirmation.

These are the principal findings from a new weekly survey with a special focus on the themes and issues directly related to Congress. The Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, will complement the Pew Research Center’s ongoing comprehensive surveys on politics, the press, the economy and international affairs. The survey, conducted May 13-16 among 1,002 adults, also finds:

Congress’s Priorities – Jobs, Energy

• 81% say it is very important for Congress to address the job situation over the coming months, reflecting consistent concern among the public about the economy’s large job losses. There is no significant difference across party lines.

• 67% say it is very important for Congress to address the nation’s energy needs, including 75% of Democrats, 64% of independents and 61% of Republicans.

• 59% say that addressing immigration policy is very important, with Republicans 20 points more likely to say this than Democrats (69% vs. 49%).

• Only about a third (32%) says it is very important for Congress to address climate change in the coming months, including 47% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 17% of Republicans. This is consistent with earlier Pew Research surveys that show the public putting a relatively low priority on addressing climate change.

Concerns about Stricter Financial Regulations

• 54% say it is very important for Congress to act on stricter regulations for financial institutions and markets; 65% of Democrats see this as very important, compared with 53% of independents and 40% of Republicans.

• When asked what worries them more about financial regulation, 46% say their greater concern is that the government will go too far in regulating financial institutions and markets, making it harder for the economy to grow while 44% say they worry more that the government will not go far enough, leaving the country at risk of another financial crisis.

• 63% of Republicans say they are more concerned that the government will go too far in regulating financial institutions, while 60% of Democrats say they are more worried the government will not go far enough.

Continued Weak Ratings for Congress

• 13% say Congress is doing an excellent or good job, while 38% say it is doing only fair and 44% rate Congress’s job performance as poor. These ratings are largely unchanged from mid-March, when 17% said Congress was doing an excellent or good job.

• Republicans and independents give Congress equally negative job ratings. Majorities of Republicans (57%) and independents (55%) say Congress does a poor job.

• Even among Democrats, only about a quarter (23%) says Congress does an excellent or good job.

• 39% say Barack Obama is doing an excellent or good job, which is virtually unchanged from 40% in mid-March; 31% rate the job he is doing as only fair, while 27% say poor.

Little Confidence Government Will Make Progress

• Just 10% say they have a lot of confidence that the government in Washington will make progress over the next year on the most important issues facing the country; 32% say they have some confidence, 31% say not much, and 25% say no confidence at all.

• About two-thirds of Democrats (66%) have at least some confidence the government will make progress on major issues over the next year. That compares with 35% of independents and just 22% of Republicans.

Mixed Views of Kagan

• Initial reactions to Elena Kagan’s nomination to the Supreme Court are comparable to public views about the nomination of John G. Roberts to be the court’s chief justice in September 2005. Currently, 33% say the Senate should confirm Kagan, 21% are opposed, while 46% have no opinion.

• 54% of Democrats say Kagan should be confirmed, compared with 19% of Republicans and 28% of independents. There is no gender gap in reactions to Kagan’s nomination; 34% of women and 31% of men say she should be confirmed.