This report examines Google Consumer Surveys, a new tool developed by Google that interviews a stratified sample of internet users from a diverse group of about 80 publisher sites who allow Google to ask one or two questions of selected visitors as they seek to view content on the site. The sample is stratified on age, gender and location; these demographic characteristics are inferred based on the types of websites the users visit, as recorded in their DoubleClick advertising cookie and their computer’s internet address, and then is weighted by these same characteristics to parameters for all internet users from the Current Population Survey. It is neither an “opt in” survey nor a recruited panel but does not constitute a probability sample of all internet users.

The Pew Research Center remains committed to rigorous, probability-based sampling and to dual frame telephone surveys for measuring public opinion, tracking long-term trends and conducting in-depth analyses of the interrelationship of demographic characteristics and social and political values and attitudes. We continue to evaluate the performance of dual frame telephone surveys, as in our study of the impact of survey nonresponse earlier this year. It showed that “despite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social and economic measures.”

It is important to critically evaluate new methodologies, as our traditional methods face growing challenges, especially increasing nonresponse and rising costs. To evaluate the results obtained using Google Consumer Surveys, the Pew Research Center, in consultation with Google, embarked on a series of tests covering a wide range of topics and question types to compare results from Pew Research telephone surveys to those obtained using the Google Consumer Surveys method. This testing is ongoing. This report describes the findings of the evaluation thus far and provides a description of the Google Consumer Surveys methodology. The analysis and conclusions are solely those of the Pew Research Center.

Pew Research and Google Comparisons

From May to October, 2012, the Pew Research Center compared results for more than 40 questions asked in dual frame telephone surveys to those obtained using Google Consumer Surveys. Questions across a variety of subject areas were tested, including: demographic characteristics, technology use, political attitudes and behavior, domestic and foreign policy and civic engagement. Across these various types of questions, the median difference between 43 results obtained from Pew Research surveys and using Google Consumer Surveys was 3 percentage points. The mean difference was 6 points, which was a result of several sizeable differences that ranged from 10-21 points and served to increase the mean difference.

Differences between the Pew Research surveys and Google results occur for a number of reasons. Given that Google Consumer Surveys does not use a true probability sampling method, and its sampling frame is not of the general public, differences in the composition of the sample are potentially of greatest concern. A comparison of several demographic questions asked by Pew Research indicates that the Google Consumer Surveys sample appears to conform closely to the demographic composition of the overall internet population. Communication device ownership and internet use also aligns well for most, though not all, questions. In addition, there is little evidence so far that the Google Consumer Surveys sample is biased toward heavy internet users.

Some of the differences between results obtained from the two methodologies can be attributed to variations in how the questions were structured and administered. During the evaluation period, we typically tried to match the question wording and format. However, some exceptions had to be made since many of the questions were part of longstanding Pew Research trends and had to be modified to fit within the Google Consumer Surveys limits and the different mode of administration (online self-administered vs. interview-administered by telephone).

The context in which questions are asked could also explain some of the differences; questions in Pew Research surveys are asked as part of a larger survey in which earlier questions may influence those asked later in the survey. By contrast, only one or two questions are administered at a time to the same respondents in the Google Consumer Surveys method.

The Google Consumer Surveys method is a work in progress and the Pew Research Center’s evaluation began shortly after its inception and continued for six months. The testing is ongoing, and we will continue to evaluate their methodology.

Methodology of the Google Consumer Surveys

The Google Consumer Survey method samples internet users by selecting visitors to publisher websites that have agreed to allow Google to administer one or two questions to their users. There are currently about 80 sites in their network (and 33 more currently in testing). These include a mix of large and small publishers (such as New York Daily News, Christian Science Monitor, Reader’s Digest, Lima, Ohio News and the Texas Tribune), as well as sites such as YouTube, Pandora and others. Google is attempting to assemble a diverse publisher network covering a range of content (e.g., news, reference, arts and entertainment), size and geography. The results page for each question shows the proportion of respondents from these publisher content groups. Google excludes publishers whose sites include or link to various types of potentially offensive content. (See McDonald et al. for further information about the methodology, as well as a report on Google’s own comparison of results with external benchmarks.)

Google Consumer Surveys selects potential respondents by using inferred characteristics of visitors to the network of publisher sites to attempt to create a sample of internet users that matches national parameters for age, gender and location for the internet using population, based on estimates derived from the Census Bureau’s 2010 Current Population Survey’s Internet Use Supplement. In a stratified-sampling process, the selection of respondents, done in real-time by computer algorithms, attempts to fill each survey with the proper proportion of individuals by age, gender and location (region, state and/or zipcode) needed for all active surveys. For example, if a male in the 18-24 age group living in the Western U.S. visits a publisher in the network and is available to receive a survey, the system will randomly select among the available questions to present to that user. Users are selected by the system and cannot opt in to any survey.

Although respondents cannot volunteer to take part in the study, the resulting sample is a non-probability sample of internet users. It is unknown whether visitors to the network of publisher sites are fully representative of all internet users or what proportion of internet users are covered by the publisher network. All members of the internet using population do not have a known chance of being included in the sample. As a result, no meaningful margin of error can be calculated for projecting the results to the internet population. In addition, the non-probability sampling may result in more variation from sample to sample.

The demographic targeting used in selecting respondents is based on inferred information. Geography is inferred through a respondent’s IP address, while gender and age are inferred based on the types of websites the users visit as recorded in their DoubleClick advertising cookie. The system also deposits a short-term cookie to prevent users from being asked to participate in the same survey more than once. Errors associated with inferred demographic characteristics can influence the sampling and weighting process, even if these inferred demographics are not used in the analysis. For approximately 30-40% of the users, demographic information is not available – either because their cookies are turned off but more often because the algorithm cannot determine a trend from the websites visited as recorded in their DoubleClick advertising cookie that would suggest what gender or age they are. For results reported on the weighted sample, respondents without inferred demographic information on the variables used in weighting are excluded.

Weighting is done with multiple-cell crosstabs, where the sample size permits, that combine age, gender and location (state or region depending on the most specific geography for which a reliable estimate is available). If some variables are not available, the weighting will adjust to use any of the three characteristics that are available.

The point at which users receive the question prompt varies by publisher site. For example, questions may appear after a user attempts to access any content, views a certain number of articles or attempts to access particular types of content (such as a photo gallery). Users may complete the initial question shown to them, request an alternative question, complete some other action (such as logging into an account, signing up to receive emails, or sharing the content on social media), or decide not to view the content on that site.

Only one or two questions can be administered to the same respondent and currently there is no ability to administer questions to the same respondents over time. This may increase response rates by reducing respondent burden, but is also one of the key limitations of the Google Consumer Surveys method. Much of the political and social research conducted using survey data seeks to explore the relationship among attitudes and behaviors; such analyses require multiple questions to be asked of the same respondent. Similarly, the ability to administer only one or two questions to the same respondent means that few measures of demographic characteristics are available for analysis.

It is also difficult to ask complex questions using the Google Consumer Surveys platform. There is a limit of 125 characters on question stems and 44 characters on response options. In addition, a maximum of five response categories can be offered. These limitations mean that longer questions cannot be asked or have to be substantially modified, potentially affecting how people comprehend and answer the question.

The brevity of a Google survey does confer one important advantage, which is that surveys can be fielded very quickly: 1,000 or more responses can be obtained in a matter of a few hours, though most surveys typically run for one or two days. Consequently, Google Consumer Surveys can be used for gathering immediate reactions to events that would be difficult and expensive to measure using telephone surveys and for tracking reactions to measure how they evolve in the short and long term. These include qualitative responses to events, such as verbatim or “one word” reactions.

Demographic Characteristics

Based on tests of several demographic variables, the profile of internet users who respond to Google Consumer Surveys is similar to that of internet users in Pew Research Center surveys. The profile of Google Consumer Surveys respondents shown here is not based on Google’s inferred demographic information, but on demographic questions that were asked of respondents to Google Consumer Surveys.

As discussed in more detail below, there can be substantial errors in how individual people are classified using Google’s inferred demographics (See “Assessing Google’s Inferred Demographics” below.) But in this test, Google Consumer Surveys achieved a representative sample of internet users on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status and home ownership when compared with internet users in Pew Research Center surveys.

The gender balance and age profile of internet users in Pew Research surveys and Google Consumer Surveys were fairly similar. In addition, both Google Consumer Surveys and Pew Research reached a similar share of white and non-white internet users.

Each source found that about half of internet users are married while about half are not, and the specific status of the unmarried (widowed, divorced, never married or living with a partner) also were very similar. And in both the Pew Research survey and the Google Consumer Surveys, 63% of internet users said they owned their home.

Weekly church attendance among internet users was comparable in the Pew Research survey and the Google Consumer Surveys. Volunteerism rates were similar in both surveys, although slightly more internet users say they volunteered in the past 12 months in the Pew Research survey than using Google Consumer Surveys (51% vs. 45%).

On two other measures of social and political engagement – talking with neighbors and contacting a public official – there were substantial differences between the results from the Pew Research and Google survey. Nearly six-in-10 (58%) in the Pew Research survey say they talk with their neighbors weekly or more, compared with 43% using Google Consumer Surveys. Nearly twice as many in the Pew Research survey as in the Google surveys said they contacted a public official in the past 12 months (34% vs. 18%). On both of these measures, however, Google results were closer to the estimates from the Current Population Survey’s Civic Engagement Supplement.

Internet and Technology Use

Given the Google surveys’ reliance on internet users visiting particular websites, it is especially important to determine the extent to which internet and technology use among Google’s respondents conforms to the broader population of internet users. Google’s own analysis of visitors to the Google Consumer Surveys publisher network shows that heavier internet users are more likely to appear, but the magnitude of this bias is relatively small. Comparisons of measures of device ownership and internet use in Pew Research surveys and Google Consumer Surveys confirm this.

In general, the percentage who said they owned particular devices and engaged in various online activities were fairly similar in the Pew Research surveys and the Google Consumer Surveys. The percentages of internet users saying they owned a tablet and e-readers were about the same in both the Pew Research survey and Google Consumer Surveys.

In the Pew Research survey, 15% of internet users said they use Twitter, compared with 18% using Google Consumer Surveys. The number saying they donated to charity online also was comparable; 25% in the Pew Research survey and 28% using Google Consumer Surveys. Social networking use was somewhat lower in the Google Consumer Surveys (57%) than in the Pew Research survey (63%), as was getting news online (70% vs. 77%, respectively).

However, there was a difference in smartphone ownership and searching for health information online. Google’s samples reported lower levels of smartphone ownership, when asked in the same way as in the Pew Research survey, and fewer said they searched for health information online.

The Pew Research question on smartphone ownership asks “Do you currently own a smartphone, such as a Blackberry, iPhone, Android or Windows phone?” In response, 55% of internet users in a telephone survey said that they did, compared with 39% in a Google survey. However, in a separate test using different question wording, respondents were asked “What type of mobile phone do you currently own?” and were offered Android, iPhone, Blackberry, Windows phone and “other type of mobile phone” as separate choices. In this version, 53% of Google respondents reported having one of the types of smartphones.

There also was a large difference in the percentage who said they looked for health or medical information online; in a Pew Research survey 71% of internet users said they did this, compared with 52% in a Google survey.

Political Attitudes and Policy Views

Across several political measures, the results from the Pew Research Center and using Google Consumer Surveys were broadly similar, though some larger differences were observed.

On party identification, the Google sample included slightly more Republicans (27% vs. 24%) and more conservatives (40% vs. 36%) than the Pew Research survey’s sample. Similarly, ratings of Obama’s job approval were more negative using Google Consumer Surveys (at the time, 45% vs. 50% approved of Obama job performance). In a September comparison, more voters reached using Google Consumer Surveys supported Obama’s re-election than in the Pew Research survey (57% vs. 51%).

Views about the size and role of government were similar in a Pew Research survey and the Google survey. In both, more respondents said they prefer a smaller government providing fewer surveys than a bigger government providing more services.

Reported frequency of voting also was little different in the Google Consumer Surveys and the Pew Research survey. A majority of respondents to the Pew Research survey (69%) reported voting always or nearly always, compared with 65% in a Google survey.

There were larger differences between the Pew Research results and those obtained using Google Consumer Surveys on several domestic policy issues tested. But taken collectively, the direction of the differences were not consistently in a liberal or a conservative direction. On the issue of same-sex marriage, opinion was more divided in the Pew Research survey than in the Google survey. In the Pew Research survey, 48% favored and 44% opposed allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. In the Google survey, more favored allowing same-sex marriage, by a 59% to 41% margin.

The Pew Research survey found more support for Obama’s policy to allow illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to remain in the country and apply for work permits (63% approve vs. 33% disapprove) than using Google Consumer Surveys (52% approve, 48% disapprove).

Opinion about the health care legislation passed by Obama and Congress in 2010 was divided in the Pew Research and Google surveys, both before and after the Supreme Court ruling upholding most of the legislation. The results of the two surveys were similar, especially after accounting for possible mode differences.

On the issue of global warming, more in the Pew Research survey said there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been warming over the past few decades (67% vs. 57% using Google Consumer Surveys). But the percentage of people saying that warming is occurring mostly because of human activity was similar in the two surveys.

Across a variety of foreign policy issues, results from the Pew Research surveys and those obtained using the Google Consumer Surveys method were quite comparable. When it comes to economic and trade policy toward China, slightly more respondents in both said that it is more important to get tougher with China than to build a stronger relationship with China,

On the issue of withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, similar percentages in both said Obama is handling this about right. But more said that Obama was not removing troops quickly enough in the Google survey (36% vs. 28% in the Pew Research survey). A majority of the public approved of the use of drones to target terrorists in other countries in both approaches, but support was somewhat higher using Google Consumer Surveys than in the Pew Research survey (63% vs. 55%).

By about two-to-one, in both surveys, more said that good diplomacy rather than military strength is the best way to ensure peace. This was tested in two versions of a long-term trend question about political values. One version, which the Pew Research Center began tracking in 1987, asks if the respondent agrees or disagrees that “the best way to achieve peace is through military strength.” The other asks respondents to choose between two alternatives: one is the same as the original question, while the other is that “good diplomacy is the best way to achieve peace.” In Pew Research telephone surveys, fewer respondents chose military strength in the forced choice format, compared with the agree/disagree format. For both versions of the question, Google Consumer Surveys produced nearly identical results to the telephone surveys.

Reactions to the Presidential Debates

In a series of tests after each presidential debate, the Pew Research surveys and Google Consumer Surveys produced similar reactions. Both approaches found that Romney was widely viewed by registered voters who watched the debate as doing the better job. Romney had a 72% to 20% margin over Obama in the Pew Research survey on who did the better job in the first debate.

Similarly, Romney had a 57% to 16% lead over Obama according to the Google Consumer Surveys reaction, with 27% saying both candidates did about the same. In the Google reactions, Romney’s lead widened from the night of the debate to the next day.

By contrast, Obama was seen as winning the second debate and third debates, but by more modest margins. By a 48% to 37% margin, more debate watchers said in the Pew Research survey that Obama did the better job in the second debate. The Google Consumer Surveys reaction showed similar results: 50% said Obama did the better job while 32% said Romney did the better job. Views about who did the better job in the second debate changed little from the night of the debate through the following weekend.

Registered voters who watched the second debate also were asked using Google Consumer Surveys for a one-word impression of Obama and Romney in the debate. The top reactions to Obama’s performance included “liar,” “great,” “president” and “strong.” For Romney, the top reactions included “presidential,” “liar,” “awesome” and “great.”

Both the Pew Research survey and Google Consumer Survey showed Obama winning the third presidential debate, but the margin was much wider in the Pew Research survey. In the Pew Research survey, voters by a 52% to 36% margin said Obama did the better job. The Google survey found 43% of voters saying Obama did a better job vs. 37% for Romney.

The public’s reaction to the vice-presidential debate was divided in both the Pew Research survey and Google Consumer Survey. Among voters who watched the vice-presidential debate, 47% said Joe Biden did the better job while 46% said Paul Ryan did the better job, according to the Pew Research survey conducted Oct. 12-14. The Google Consumer Surveys reaction, conducted over a similar period, also found a divided reaction to the vice-presidential debate; 38% said Biden did the better job while 42% chose Ryan; 20% said they did the same.

Assessing Google’s Inferred Demographics

The demographic characteristics Google uses in sampling and weighting and what it provides for use in analysis are inferred based on information about the types of websites respondents have visited as recorded in their DoubleClick advertising cookie. But there is no publically available analysis of how well these inferred demographics match up to actual demographic information as reported by respondents. To assess this, Google Consumer Survey respondents were asked their gender and age so that the survey responses could be compared to the inferred data.

For 75% of respondents, the inferred gender matched their survey response. About eight-in-ten whom Google inferred were men (79%) said they were male when asked. Similarly, 72% of women based on Google’s inferred information said they were female when asked. Among those for whom Google did not infer gender, 58% said they were male and 42% female.

For age, the pattern is more mixed. Because Google limits the number of response categories for an individual question to five but provides inferred age in six categories, age was asked twice, of separate samples of respondents, collapsing different age categories for each.

In the first comparison, from 23% to 65% report an age that was in the same category as their inferred age, that averages to about 44% among all respondents. But when adjacent age categories also are included, about 76% report an age that is the same or close to their inferred age by Google.

Although there are errors at the individual respondent level in Google’s inferred demographic information, especially for those in the middle age-ranges, correlations between substantive questions and gender and age are consistent with those found in Pew Research surveys.

For example, on the question of whether people prefer a smaller government or a bigger government, more men than women said they prefer a smaller government in both the Pew Research survey and the Google survey. The age pattern also was similar, with younger people being less likely in both surveys to prefer a smaller government.

In both surveys, men and women were about equally likely to say they always vote. And in both the Pew Research survey and the Google survey younger people were far less likely than older people to say they always vote.

The age pattern on presidential approval was quite similar in the Pew Research survey and Google Consumer Surveys; young people were more likely to approve of the job Obama is doing as president in both samples. However, fewer older people using Google Consumer Surveys approved of Obama’s job performance than in the Pew Research survey.

In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted about 43% of the voting age population.

Nonvoters favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a wide margin (59% to 24%). While most nonvoters (64%) have a favorable view of Obama, just half as many (32%) view Romney favorably.

By contrast, likely voters are evenly divided in Pew Research’s most recent national survey (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Nearly identical percentages of likely voters view Obama and Romney favorably (51% Obama, 52% Romney).

A plurality of nonvoters are independents (44%); 29% identify as Democrats and just 17% as Republicans. Likely voters include about the same percentages of Democrats (35%) as Republicans (34%); 27% of likely voters are independents.

About half of nonvoters (52%) either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; only 27% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. Likely voters’ leaned party identification is evenly divided: 47% identify with the Republican Party or lean toward the GOP, while the same percentage identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
However, just a quarter of nonvoters describe their political views as liberal; that is little different from the percentage of liberals among likely voters (20%). But nonvoters are far less likely than voters to describe their political views as conservative (28% vs. 44% of likely voters).

As might be expected, nonvoters express very little interest in politics or the election. A third of nonvoters say they are registered to vote. But they are far less likely than voters to give a lot of thought to the election and follow public affairs.

Demographic Differences Between Voters, Nonvoters

Nonvoters are younger, less educated and less affluent than are likely voters. More than a third (36%) of nonvoters are younger than 30, compared with just 13% of likely voters.

Just 13% of nonvoters are college graduates and about the same percentage (14%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more. Among likely voters, 38% are college graduates and a third (33%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more.

While most voters are married, most nonvoters are not. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of nonvoters are unmarried, compared with 40% of likely voters.

Nonvoters also are much more likely than voters to be Hispanic: 21% of nonvoters are Hispanic, which is three times the percentage of Hispanics among likely voters (7%). About six-in-ten (59%) nonvoters are white non-Hispanics. By contrast, white non-Hispanics make up about three quarters (74%) of likely voters.

Nonvoters and Voters on the Issues

Nonvoters express more liberal opinions than voters on a wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues. But the differences are far less pronounced on social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.

Far more nonvoters than voters favor activist government. About half of nonvoters (52%) say the government should do more to solve problems, while 40% say the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. The balance of opinion is reversed among likely voters: 56% say the government is doing too much, while 39% say the government should do more to solve problems.

By 46% to 31%, more nonvoters favor keeping the 2010 health care law in place than repealing the law; 23% do not express an opinion. Voters are more evenly divided, with 49% favoring the law’s repeal and 43% saying it should remain in place; just 8% do not express an opinion.

There are smaller differences in the opinions of voters and nonvoters on tax policy: 55% of nonvoters and 51% of likely voters say it would better for the economy to maintain current tax rates on income under $250,000 while raising taxes on income about that level. A third of nonvoters, and 42% of likely voters say it would better to lower tax rates for all Americans by 20%, while limiting some tax deductions.

On foreign policy, a clear majority of likely voters (56%) favor withdrawing U.S. forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible; 40% say they should remain until the situation there is stabilized. Support for an immediate withdrawal is even more widespread among nonvoters (67% favor).

Nonvoters also are less supportive of taking hard line against Iran’s nuclear program: 45% say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran, while 40% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran. Among likely voters, 62% favor taking a firm stand against Iran while just 31% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict.

On gay marriage and abortion, however, there are at most modest differences between nonvoters and likely voters. And there are no significant differences in opinions about the impact of immigrants on the country.

Identical percentages of nonvoters and likely voters favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally (49% each). Somewhat fewer nonvoters oppose gay marriage (36% vs. 42% of voters ), while more have no opinion (15% vs. 9%).

Nonvoters have the same views on abortion as likely voters: 54% of nonvoters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 39% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Among likely voters, 55% favor legal abortion in all or most cases; 38% say it should be mostly illegal.

Like voters, nonvoters express mixed opinions about the impact of the growing population of immigrants on the U.S.: 27% say it has been a change for the better, 34% a change for the worse, while 34% say it has not made much difference.

As the presidential campaign enters its final week, Barack Obama has failed to regain much of the support he lost in the days following the first presidential debate and the race is now even among likely voters: 47% favor Obama while an identical percentage supports Mitt Romney.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds Obama holding a statistically insignificant two-point edge among registered voters: 47% to 45%. This is little different from the 46% to 46% standoff among registered voters observed in early October, in the days following the first debate.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches. In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters. In September, the gap was more modest.

Indeed, surveys over the past month have found Republicans becoming much more upbeat about the race and about Mitt Romney himself. More Republicans now see the campaign as interesting and informative. And compared with September, a greater proportion of Romney voters now say they are voting for him rather than against Obama.

The deadlock in candidate support continues to reflect the offsetting strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. Romney’s personal image has improved substantially since the summer, and his favorability rating among registered voters (50%) is now about the same as Obama’s (52%).

But Obama continues to lead his rival on many personal characteristics and issues. Obama is seen as the candidate with more moderate positions on issues and as more willing to work with members of the other party. He also holds wide advantages on empathy and consistency. Obama leads Romney by about two-to-one (59% to 31%) as the candidate who connects well with ordinary Americans, and by 51% to 36% as the candidate who takes consistent positions on issues.

Obama also leads Romney by nine points on better representing voters’ views on abortion and by about the same margin (50% to 42%) on making wise decisions about foreign policy.

Moreover, majorities of voters continue to agree with criticisms frequently lodged against Romney. About six-in-ten (61%) agree that Romney is “promising more than he can deliver” while 53% say “it’s hard to know what Romney really stands for.” Both percentages are virtually unchanged since early October.

Romney’s strengths – and Obama’s weaknesses – continue to be the economy and the budget deficit. More see the former Massachusetts governor as better able to improve the job situation, by a 50% to 42% margin. Half of voters agree that “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around.” And more voters say Romney has new ideas than say that about Obama (46% vs. 41%).

The poll finds that this year’s debates collectively have had a much more positive impact on opinions of Romney than on views of Obama. Twice as many voters say they have a better opinion of Romney as a result of the debates than say that about Obama (36% vs. 18%).

And Romney continues to run about even with Obama on a number of issues on which he trailed earlier in the campaign, including health care and energy. Similarly, voters are divided over whether Obama (46%) or Romney (44%) would do better in dealing with taxes.

The poll finds familiar divides in support patterns among likely voters. Among age cohorts, Millennials continue to support Obama, while Gen Xers and Boomers split their support between the two candidates. Voters in the Silent Generation support Romney by a wide margin. Whites, especially working class whites, strongly favor Romney, while African Americans overwhelmingly favor Obama.

Overall, the poll shows a modest gender gap. Men lean to Romney by a seven-point margin, women lean to Obama by about the same margin (six points). The marital gap is much wider. Both married men and women favor Romney, while 59% of unmarried women – and 56% of unmarried men – support Obama.

The swing vote has not decreased significantly since early October. Among likely voters, 13% are either undecided, lean toward a candidate or support Romney or Obama but say they could still change their mind. In early October, 14% were swing voters.

Third-party candidates attract scant support from likely voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson polls at 2% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at less than 1%. This is comparable to levels of support for third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr at this stage in the 2008 campaign.

The 2012 Matchup

With voter preferences split evenly between Obama and Romney among likely voters, support for Barack Obama is substantially lower than it was in the election four years ago, according to national exit polls.

But Obama has held his ground among some voting blocs over this time period. Notably, he runs about as well among middle-aged voters (30-64) and those with high incomes as he did four years ago, and he continues to garner near universal support from blacks. His support among Democrats is slightly higher than in 2008.

Obama has lost ground since 2008 among young voters as well as those 65 and older. His support has also slipped among voters in the middle and lower-income brackets. Most notably, while Obama won independent voters by an eight-point margin in 2008, he now trails Romney by an identical margin among independents.

Among white voters, Obama’s support has slipped more among those without a college degree than among college graduates. Currently, Obama trails Romney by nearly two-to-one among white voters who do not have a college degree.

Romney Support More Positive

For the first time this year, a majority of registered voters who support Romney (57%) now think of their vote as a vote for Mitt Romney, not as a vote against Barack Obama. As recently as September, just over half of Romney voters (52%) said their main motivation was their opposition to Obama.

By contrast, registered voters who favor Obama have consistently described their vote as a vote for the president. Currently, 73% of Obama’s supporters say they are voting for the president, while just 24% are voting against Romney.

Consistent with this, as many Romney as Obama voters express strong support for their candidate. This continues the pattern seen in the Pew Research poll in early October, after the first presidential debate, which represented a shift from polling earlier in the year when Romney’s support was much more tepid.

Assessing Voter Turnout

As in many previous elections, turnout measures appear to favor the Republican candidate. In the poll, more of Mitt Romney’s than Barack Obama’s supporters say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. By a four-point margin, Romney supporters say they have given a lot of thought to the election (82% vs. 78%). Similarly, 66% of those voting for Romney say they have been following the campaign very closely. Fewer of Obama’s supporters (60%) say this. And 88% of Romney supporters say they will definitely vote, compared with 83% for the president.

Obama’s supporters report greater engagement now than they did earlier this month, just after the first presidential debate. The percentage who report giving a lot of thought to the election rose from 67% to 78%, and 60% now say they are following the campaign very closely, compared with 44% earlier in the month.

While turnout forecasts are very difficult, the level of engagement at this point in the campaign suggests that a relatively high percentage of voters will go to the polls. Compared with final pre-election polls in four previous elections, the percentage giving a lot of thought to the election is higher than in 2000 and 1996, and only slightly lower than in 2008 and 2004 – both high turnout elections. Similarly, the percentage saying they definitely plan to vote is 84%, not significantly different from the figures in 2008 and 2004.

Who Will Win Nov. 6?

Overall, more voters continue to expect Barack Obama to win the election (49%) than think Romney will win (31%). This reflects the continued confidence of Obama’s supporters – throughout the year at least eight-in-ten Obama backers have said they expect him to win. Romney supporters, by comparison, are less uniformly confident. Currently 64% of Romney voters say they believe Romney will win, while 17% think Obama will win and 19% are not sure.

But Romney backers are more confident now than they were in September, when their candidate trailed in most national polling.

Views of Candidate Traits, Issue Strengths

Since the aftermath of the first presidential debate, there has been little change in perceptions about the personal qualities of the two presidential candidates. Obama continues to hold a lead over Romney on empathy (by a 59%-31% margin, voters say he is the candidate who is better able to connect with ordinary Americans), and on taking consistent positions on issues (51%-36%). He also has a modest advantage on the question of which candidate takes more moderate positions (50%-38%).

But on questions of honesty, working with leaders of the other party, strength of leadership and coming up with new ideas, the candidates are evenly matched. Despite the fact that Obama was perceived as the candidate of change in 2008, 46% now say Romney is the candidate with new ideas; 41% say this better describes Obama. However, Obama has a comparably small edge on honesty, on being a strong leader and on working across the aisle.

The public is closely divided in its evaluations of which candidate can better handle the key issues facing the country. Romney holds an advantage on reducing the deficit (51%-37%) and a smaller edge on improving the job situation (50%-42%).

The candidates battle to a draw on several other important issues: dealing with the nation’s energy problems (46% Romney-45% Obama), dealing with taxes (46% Obama, 44% Romney), dealing with health care (47% Obama, 45% Romney) and dealing with Medicare (48% Obama, 43% Romney).

Obama has a modest advantage on two other issues. On foreign policy 50% say Obama is the candidate better able to make wise decisions about foreign policy (compared with 42% for Romney), while 48% say he’s better at representing the voter’s views on abortion (compared with 39% for Romney).

Since much of the electorate has already made up its mind – not to mention having possibly voted – attention turns to the swing voters, including those who are undecided or have a weak commitment to their candidate.

Swing voters in the current poll favor Mitt Romney on the critical issue of improving the job situation (41% Romney, 32% Obama) and also on the deficit (41% Romney, 28% Obama). More swing voters also view Romney as the candidate of new ideas (44% Romney, 28% Obama). But Obama matches or surpasses Romney on every other issue and candidate trait, including empathy, honesty, consistency, strength of leadership, moderation and willingness to work across party lines.

Candidate Images

Mitt Romney trailed Barack Obama most of the year in personal favorability but closed the gap after the first presidential debate and maintains that parity in the current poll. Half of registered voters (50%) say they have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 52% favorable for Barack Obama. Comparable numbers of voters say they have a very favorable opinion of each of the candidates (23% for Obama, 19% for Romney), as well as a very unfavorable opinion (26% each).

Voters are evenly divided in their views of the vice presidential candidates; 44% have a favorable view of Joe Biden, and 45% have a favorable view of Paul Ryan.

Looking at frequent criticisms of the presidential candidates, 61% of voters agree that Romney “is promising more than he can deliver,” while 35% disagree. Just more than half (53%) agree that “it’s hard to know what Romney really stands for”; 44% disagree.

Half of voters (50%) agree that Obama “doesn’t know how to turn the economy around”; about as many (47%) disagree. About four-in-ten (42%) agree that Obama “thinks government is the solution to every problem.” Just more than half (53%) disagree with this statement.

Proposals to require voters to show photo identification before being allowed to vote draw overwhelming support. By 77% to 20%, voters favor a requirement that those voting be required to show photo ID. Opinion about this is little changed from six years ago, when 80% of voters supported voter photo ID requirements.

Several states have enacted strict photo ID voting requirements, but there have been court challenges to many of these laws. Last week, a Pennsylvania judge blocked enforcement of that state’s voter ID law.

In a national survey of 1,263 registered voters, conducted Sept. 12-16 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, nearly all (98%) say they are confident that they have the identification they will need at the polls on Nov. 6.

There are partisan differences in views of photo ID requirements for voters, though majorities of Republicans, Democrats, and independents favor such requirements. Fully 95% of Republican voters say a photo ID should be required to vote, as do 83% of independents. By comparison, 61% of Democrats who say photo identification should be required; 34% say it should not. Liberal Democrats are about equally divided on this question (46% should be required, 48% should not).

Most Voters in States with Photo ID Laws Know about Requirements

Just four states (Georgia, Indiana, Kansas and Tennessee) have strict photo identification requirements in effect for the 2012 election, in which voters must show official photo identification to vote. About nine-in-ten voters (92%) in these states know that their state requires photo identification.

Laws vary in other states, but for the most part, voters are aware of the voting requirements in their state. About three-quarters (77%) of voters in states where photo ID requirements are less stringent know that a photo ID is required. And 67% of those in states with requirements for identification (though not necessarily photo identification) say photo identification is required.

Many states have no voter identification requirements, and 48% of voters in these states correctly say that their state does not require photo identification, although 38% say that photo identification is required to vote in their state.

Support for photo identification laws is somewhat higher among voters in states with some voter identification requirements (83%) than among those in states without laws requiring voters to show identification at the polls (70%).

For more on opinions about voter identification requirements by race and ethnicity, see the Pew Hispanic Center’s report: “Latino Voters Support Obama by 3-1 Ratio, But Are Less Certain than Others about Voting,” Oct. 11, 2012.

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.

More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September.

Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%.

In the presidential horserace, Romney has made sizable gains over the past month among women voters, white non-Hispanics and those younger than 50. Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.

Views of Candidates’ Traits, Issue Strengths

Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas.

Conversely, Obama continues hold leads as the candidate who connects well with ordinary people and takes consistent positions on issues. And Obama leads by 10 points (49% to 39%) as the candidate who takes more moderate positions on issues.

Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points.

In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney).

Similarly, Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%.

Romney also has once again opened a double-digit advantage as the candidate who can deal with the budget deficit (51% vs. 36%). Romney led by 14 points on the budget deficit in July, but had lost that advantage last month.

Swing voters express varying views of the candidates’ strengths. Some 18% of registered voters are swing voters in the latest survey, meaning they are either undecided, only lean toward one of the candidates, or favor a candidate but say there is still a chance they will change their mind. A month ago, 22% of registered voters fell in this category.

By a 69% to 7% margin, swing voters say Obama is the candidate who connects will with ordinary Americans. Swing voters also tend to rate Obama as the more consistent, honest and moderate candidate, and as a strong leader. Swing voters also favor Obama on the issues of health care, Medicare and foreign policy.

But Romney continues to hold a decided edge over Obama on jobs and the budget deficit. By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.

Obama, Romney Now Seen as Equally Likely to Help the Middle Class

A substantial majority of voters continue to say that Mitt Romney’s policies would help the wealthy, but he has made gains since the summer in the perception that his policies as president would help the much-discussed middle class. In July, just 41% thought Romney’s policies would help the middle class. This has risen to 49% in the current poll; a comparable percentage of voters (50%) say that Obama’s policies would help the middle class.

Three-quarters of voters say Romney’s policies would benefit the wealthy (75%), basically unchanged from July (74%). Far fewer (31%) see Obama’s policies benefiting the wealthy. Conversely, two-thirds (66%) see Obama’s policies as likely to benefit the poor, compared with 39% who say the same about Romney’s policies.

Romney’s gains on the question of how his policies would affect the middle class have come largely among upper-income voters. Among voters with incomes of $150,000 or more, the percentage saying Romney’s policies would help the middle class rose from 47% in July to 68% now. Among voters in households with incomes between $75,000 and $150,000, the increase was 10 points (from 44% to 54%). Voters in lower-income households have not changed their view of whether Romney would help the middle class, and those with household incomes under $30,000 continue to see Obama as doing more for the middle class.

Romney’s Image Improves, Obama’s Dips

The edge in favorability ratings that Barack Obama had enjoyed throughout the campaign has now been erased, as voters’ impressions of Romney have continued to improve while Obama’s ratings have returned to levels seen earlier in the summer. Currently, voters are about evenly divided in their overall opinions of both Obama (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable) and Romney (50% favorable, 46% unfavorable).

While shifts are evident across many demographic groups, there has been a notable change among women voters: In September, just 42% viewed Romney favorably, while 60% had positive impressions of Obama. Today, about half view each of the candidates favorably (51% Obama, 48% Romney).

Romney also has gained ground with younger voters. Today, 51% of those under 50 have positive impressions of the GOP candidate, up from 43% in September. Mirroring Romney’s improvement among these younger voters is an erosion in Obama’s ratings among this group: 49% of 18-49-year-old voters now view him favorably, down 10 points from September.

Views of Candidate Criticisms

While Romney’s personal image and standing in the horserace have improved markedly, two criticisms of the candidate register widely with voters – especially swing voters.

About six-in-ten voters (62%) agree with the statement that “Romney is promising more than he can deliver,” while 35% disagree. Among swing voters, fully 75% agree, which is closer to the views of certain Obama voters (89% agree) than certain Romney voters (30% agree).

Just more than half of voters (53%) also agree that “It’s hard to know what Romney really stands for.” This includes two thirds (66%) of swing voters, 86% of certain Obama voters and just 16% of certain Romney voters.

Criticism of Obama centers on his ability to improve the economy. Overall, 54% agree that “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around”; 44% disagree with this statement. Romney voters are nearly unanimous in their agreement with this criticism (94%), while only 11% of Obama voters share this view. By a 54% to 39% margin, somewhat more swing voters agree than disagree that Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around.

Voters are divided in their reactions to the statement: “Obama thinks government is the solution to every problem” – 46% agree with it, while 51% disagree. The balance of opinion among swing voters mirrors that of voters overall (46% agree, 51% disagree), while Obama voters (78% disagree) and Romney voters (75% agree) hold opposing views.

Asked to describe their greater concern about each of the candidates, more swing voters say they disagree with Obama on issues than distrust him personally (58% vs. 21%). By comparison, roughly as many swing voters say their concern with Romney is his position on issues (44%) as say they don’t trust him personally (36%).

Shifting Horserace

Since September, Mitt Romney has made gains among women and younger voters, and has expanded his advantage among whites without a college degree. In the current poll, women likely voters are evenly divided between the candidates (47% each), while men support Romney by a 51%-43% margin. Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points among women, and trailed among men by only two points.

Similarly, Obama held a solid 56%-39% lead among likely voters under 50 last month. In the current poll, Obama runs even with Romney among voters in this age group (46% Obama, 49% Romney).

Romney picked up seven points among white voters over the past month (from 51% in September to 58% now), while the horse race is unchanged among black voters. Obama’s earlier edge among college graduates (53%-42% in September) is now gone (48% Obama, 47% Romney). And Romney picked up nine points among voters with family incomes of $75,000 or more.

Obama trailed Romney last month among whites who don’t have a college degree, but he has fallen further behind in the current poll. Romney led Obama 53%-40% among this group in September but now holds a much larger 28-point lead (61%-33%).

Debate Reactions

A substantial majority of voters (69%) say they watched at least some part of last week’s presidential debate and by a more than three-to-one margin (72%-20%), voters who watched say that Romney did a better job than Obama. Romney’s performance exceeded voters’ expectations. Heading into the debate, about half said that Obama (51%) would do a better job, while only 29% said Romney would win. Republican and Democratic voters were about equally likely to have watched the debate.

The vast majority of Republican voters who watched the debate (95%) say that Romney did the better job, and many Democratic voters agree. Democrats are split in their assessment of who did better: 45% say Romney, 44% Obama.

Among independent voters, Romney was the clear winner (78% vs. 14%). And views of swing voters mirror those of independents: 70% say Romney won, 14% Obama.

Nearly two-thirds of voters who watched the debate say it was mostly informative (64%) compared with mostly confusing (26%). Republican voters overwhelmingly found the debate mostly informative (83%); only 11% say the debate was mostly confusing. By contrast, about as many Democratic voters say the debate was confusing (41%) as say it was informative (47%).

Heading into Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, voters expect that Barack Obama will do a better job than Mitt Romney. A substantial majority of voters plan to watch the debate: 62% say they are very likely to watch, another 21% say they are somewhat likely.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept., 27-30 among 1,001 adults, including 828 registered voters, finds that by a 51%-29% margin, more voters say Obama will do better than Romney in Wednesday’s debate.

Nearly nine-in-ten Democrats (89%) expect Obama to do the better job in the debate. By contrast, Republicans are less confident in their candidate: 64% say Romney will do the better job, 16% say Obama. The balance of opinion among independent voters mirrors that of all voters: 44% say they expect Obama will do the better job, 28% say Romney.

The survey finds that overall interest in the debate is comparable to levels in 2008 and 2004 and higher than in 2000 and in 1996. Currently, 66% of Republican and 64% of Democratic voters say they are very likely to watch the debate; slightly fewer independents (58%) say they are very likely to watch.

Candidates and the Issues

Recent Pew Research Center surveys have found that voters offer tepid ratings for the 2012 field and that they give both the Obama and Romney campaigns fairly low grades. However, most voters say that the candidates have been talking about the important issues.

Overall, 72% of voters say the candidates have been talking about the issues that are important to them this campaign, just 24% say they have not been. This is comparable to the percentages who said the candidates were covering top issues in September of 2008 and 2000 and somewhat higher than the percentages who said this in September 2004 and 1996.

Majorities of Democrats (81%) and Republicans (73%) agree that the candidates have been addressing the important issues, as do 65% of independents. And 79% of those who have been following news about the candidates very closely also say that they have been talking about the important issues in this campaign.

Recent Weeks’ News

News about the candidates for the 2012 presidential election was the public’s top news story last week: 40% say they followed this news very closely, including similar percentages of Democrats (48%) and Republicans (46%); independents are following campaign news somewhat less closely (34% very closely).

Many also have been following news about the U.S. economy very closely. About a third (34%) say they followed economic news very closely last week, and a week prior, economic news (36% following very closely) rivaled interest in the campaign (38% following very closely).

About one-in-five Americans (19%) say they followed news about the controversy surrounding the National Football League’s use of replacement officials very closely. Fewer (10%) tracked news about the United Nations meetings in New York very closely. In the September 20-23, 2012 survey, a quarter (25%) said there were following the current situation and events in Afghanistan very closely.

As Barack Obama and Mitt Romney prepare for their first debate on Oct. 3, the issues at the top of the voters’ agenda have changed little since 2008. Fully 87% of registered voters say that the economy will be very important to their vote, while 83% say jobs will be very important to their vote.

Four years ago, the economy also was the top priority for voters. In August 2008, an identical 87% said the economy was very important to their vote, and in October 2008, 80% rated jobs as very important.

However, the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 12-16 among 3,019 adults, including 2,424 registered voters, finds that several other issues have declined in importance since 2008. Most notably, energy policy rated among the most important electoral issues in 2008 – 77% said it was very important to their vote. Today it ranks near the bottom of the voting priorities list at 55%.

Terrorism also has declined as a voting priority. Currently, 60% of voters say the issue of terrorism will be very important to their vote, down from 72% in August 2008.

Immigration is also less of a focus in 2012. In the new survey, 41% view the issue of immigration as very important – the lowest of 12 issues tested – compared with 52% in August 2008.

The survey also finds that far more voters continue to favor a smaller government with fewer services than a bigger government that provides more services. Currently, 56% say they would rather have a smaller government providing fewer services; 35% prefer a bigger government. These opinions have changed little over the course of Obama’s presidency. In October 2008, however, opinion was more evenly divided (46% smaller government vs. 40% bigger government).

In addition, while the budget deficit remains a very important issue for most voters, there continues to be broad agreement that the best way to reduce the budget deficit is with a combination of tax increases and cuts in major programs. In the new survey, fully 69% of registered voters say the best way to reduce the federal budget deficit is with a combination of tax increases and spending cuts; just 16% say the focus should be mostly on cutting major programs and just 6% say the deficit should be reduced mostly by increasing taxes.

Priorities of Romney, Obama, Swing Voters

There are substantial differences between the priorities of voters who support Romney and those who back Obama. Eight-in-ten Romney voters (82%) say the budget deficit will be very important to their vote, compared with 55% of Obama supporters.

That is a reversal from four years ago; in May 2008, more Obama voters (77%) than supporters of John McCain (60%) said the budget deficit was very important to their vote.

The Pew Research Center’s annual public priorities surveys have found that the party out of power tends to place greater importance on the budget deficit than does the party that controls the White House. In January 2012, 84% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats viewed reducing the budget deficit as a top priority. Four years earlier, at the start of George W. Bush’s final year in office, more Democrats (64%) than Republicans (52%) said the reducing deficit was a top priority.

In the current survey, Romney supporters also are more likely than Obama voters to view terrorism (by 13 points), immigration (11 points), the economy (10 points) and foreign policy (10 points) as very important to their vote. And while jobs rank near the top of the agenda for Obama voters, more Romney voters rate the issue of jobs as very important (87% to 81%). Taxes also are viewed as very important by somewhat more Romney voters (70% vs. 64% of Obama voters).

Education, Medicare and health care rate as far more important priorities for Obama voters than for Romney voters. More than eight-in-ten Obama supporters (84%) say education will be very important to their vote, compared with 52% of Romney supporters, and there also are sizable gaps over Medicare (19 points) and health care (15 points).

Roughly one-in-five voters (22%) are considered swing voters, either because they are undecided or haven’t fully committed to Obama or Romney. For the most part their priorities are in line with those of all registered voters: Fully 85% of swing voters view the economy as a very important voting issue, followed by education and jobs (74%).

Abortion rates as a less important issue among swing voters than among all registered voters. Only about a third (34%) of swing voters say abortion is very important to their vote. Nearly half of all voters (46%) say abortion is very important.

Gender, Age Differences in Priorities

Women are far more likely than men to rate several issues as very important, including abortion and health care. More than half of women (54%) say the issue of abortion will be very important in their voting decision, compared with 36% of men. And while 81% of women voters say health care will be very important, fewer men (67%) view that issue as very important.

Women also are more likely than men to view education (by 10 points) and jobs (eight points) as very important. There are no issues that significantly more men than women rate as very important.

While women view abortion as a more important issue than do men, there is no indication in the survey that is having an impact on the vote choices of women. In the new survey, women favor Obama over Romney by a wide margin (56% to 37%). Obama’s advantage is about as wide among women who view abortion as very important (58% to 37%) as among those who view it as less important (53% to 36%).

Medicare rates as a much more important issue for older voters than younger voters. More than eight-in-ten (83%) voters 65 and older view the issue as very important to their vote, as do 69% of those 50 to 64. Among voters younger than 50, just 55% rate Medicare as a very important issue.

Older voters who rate Medicare as a very important issue support Obama by a substantial margin. Among all voters 50 and older, Obama and Romney run about even (48% Obama vs. 44% Romney). But voters in this age group who view Medicare as very important support Obama by 54% to 39%. Among the much smaller group that views the issue as less important, Romney leads, 59% to 33%.

Energy Falls in Importance

Energy emerged as a major issue during the 2008 campaign. In August, as gas prices surged, 77% of voters said the issue of energy would be very important to their vote. Currently, just 55% view energy as very important.

Just 52% of Republican voters now say energy is very important, down from 74% four years ago when the phrase “drill baby drill” became a political slogan at the 2008 GOP convention. The declines have been comparable among independents (25 points) and Democrats (20 points).

Similarly, since 2008 terrorism has declined in importance among Republicans (by 12 points), Democrats (13 points) and independents (11 points). Republicans (69%) remain far more likely than independents (58%) or Democrats (56%) to view terrorism as very important.

Four years ago, a majority of Republican voters (61%) said that the issue of immigration would be very important to their vote. That has fallen to 46% in the current survey. Fewer independent voters also rate the issue of energy as very important than did so four years ago (51% then, 39% today). There has not been a significant change in opinions among Democrats over this period (45% very important then, 39% today).

Views of Government More Linked to Voting Preferences

Views about the size of government have long been linked with voting preferences. But these opinions are now more correlated with the vote than in previous election cycles going back to 1976.

Among voters who favor a bigger government providing more services, 83% support Obama and just 12% back Romney. Those who would rather have a smaller government providing fewer services support Romney by more than two-to-one (65% to 29%).

The Pew Research Center’s long-term study of political values, released June 4, found that the largest divides between Obama supporters and Romney supporters were over the scope and role of government in the economic realm, and that the partisan divides over these and other values continue to grow.

Paul Ryan’s selection to the Republican ticket has put the issue of Medicare squarely on the 2012 campaign agenda. And the latest Pew Research Center survey continues to find the public is aware of a proposal to gradually shift Medicare to a system of vouchers and is, on balance, more opposed than supportive of the idea.

The survey, conducted August 16-19, 2012 among 1,005 adults nationwide, finds 72% have heard a lot or a little about a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. And among those who are aware, the idea remains unpopular; by a 49% to 34% margin more oppose than favor the idea. This is virtually unchanged from public reactions a little over a year ago, when Republicans in the House voted in favor of this proposal as part of the “Ryan plan.”

More generally, while surveys consistently find that dealing with the deficit is a high priority for Americans, there is little support for doing so if it means entitlement cuts. When asked whether it is more important to reduce the budget deficit or to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, Americans continue to prioritize maintaining benefits.

The public offers a relatively negative assessment of Mitt Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate. Nearly half (46%) say Ryan is an only fair or poor choice, while 28% say he is an excellent or good choice. By comparison, reactions to John Kerry’s selection of John Edwards in 2004, and Bill Clinton’s selection of Al Gore in 1992, were more positive than negative.

But public assessments of Ryan’s Democratic counterpart are even more negative. Just 27% say Joe Biden has done an excellent or good job as vice president, while 56% say his job performance has been only fair or poor.

Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate received less public attention than the selection of Palin and Biden to the Republican and Democratic tickets in 2008. Fewer than half (42%) say they heard a lot about the choice of Ryan this year, while 57% heard little or nothing. In 2008, 56% said they had heard a lot about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin and 58% heard a lot about Obama’s selection of Joe Biden in the weeks following those announcements.

At this point, most Americans do not associate Ryan with the proposal to change Medicare. Just 23% of those who have heard about the idea of shifting Medicare to a system of credits to buy private insurance identify it as Ryan’s. Nearly as many (17%) say Barack Obama proposed this, while 44% do not know who proposed it.

Medicare Vouchers

As has consistently been the case, seniors express the strongest opposition to changing Medicare into a program that offers future participants credits toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. People age 65 and older who have heard about this proposal oppose it by a 55% to 24% margin, with fully 46% saying they are strongly opposed. There also is more opposition than support among people age 50 to 64, while those under age 50 are more divided.

The issue also splits along partisan lines with Democrats opposed to such a change by a 61% to 28% margin, while Republicans are more likely to favor it, though by a slimmer 46% to 32% margin. Among independents, 49% are opposed to this sort of gradual shift toward Medicare vouchers, while 34% are in favor.

Entitlements vs. Deficit Reduction

In January, 69% said reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up significantly from recent years. But the public rejects changing Social Security and Medicare benefits to achieve deficit reduction.

Overall, 51% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with 33% who say it is more important to take steps to reduce the budget deficit; 11% volunteer that they are equally important.

Democrats prioritize maintaining benefits over deficit reduction by a wide 64% to 23% margin. By contrast, Republicans are somewhat more likely to say taking steps to reduce the budget deficit (48%) is more important than keeping Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are (34%). About half of independents (48%) prioritize maintaining benefits, compared with 35% who say reducing the deficit is more important.

Fully 61% of seniors say maintaining benefits is more important, just 22% say reducing the budget deficit should take priority. And those with low family incomes overwhelmingly favor maintaining current benefits: 66% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with just 16% who say it is more important to reduce the deficit.

Low Ratings for Ryan Choice, Biden Performance

Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate receives a more negative than positive reaction from the public. Overall, 46% say Ryan is an only fair (23%) or poor (22%) choice, while just 28% call him an excellent (14%) or good (14%) choice; 26% do not offer a rating.

Six-in-ten (60%) Republicans call Ryan an excellent or good choice, 20% say he is an only fair or poor choice and 20% do not offer an evaluation. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) conservative Republicans say Ryan is an excellent or good choice, just 16% give the selection an only fair or poor rating. Independents view the Ryan selection somewhat more negatively than positively – 30% call him an excellent or good choice, compared with 42% who say he is only a fair or poor choice; 27% of independents offer no rating. Democrats view the Ryan choice overwhelmingly negatively – 70% say he is an only fair or poor selection; just 8% say excellent or good.

Views of the Ryan vice presidential selection are somewhat less positive than those for John Edwards in 2004 and Al Gore in 1992. In 2004, 49% said Edwards was an excellent or good choice, 31% called him an only fair or poor choice and 20% did not offer an opinion. In 1992, 40% said Gore was an excellent or good choice compared with 27% who said he was an only fair or poor choice; a third (33%) offered no opinion.

Joe Biden receives more negative ratings for the job he has done as vice president. Only 27% say he has done an excellent (7%) or good (20%) job as vice president; about twice as many (56%) say he has done an only fair (31%) or poor (25%) job.

Biden receives tepid ratings from his own party. About half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has done an excellent or good job, while 36% rate his performance as only fair or poor. Liberal Democrats (61% excellent or good) are more likely than conservative and moderate Democrats (46% excellent or good) to rate Biden’s job performance positively. Most independents (59%) and a broad majority of Republicans (87%) say Biden has done an only fair or poor job as vice president.