Apr. 14, 2000

So Who’s Ahead?

Voters are having a hard time making up their minds about the presidential candidates and it is showing up in the divergent results of the horse race polls. Unlike four years ago, at this point in the campaign the national polls provide little insight as to who will win the White House in November. The […]

Mar. 23, 2000

Bush Pays Price for Primary Victory

Introduction and Summary The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2000, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. Al Gore was clearly helped, and George W. Bush was just as clearly hurt. The vice president […]

Mar. 1, 2000

The Religious Landscape in Upcoming GOP Primary States

The religious profile of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party suggests that Senator John McCain’s attack on certain Christian Right leaders may cloud his chances to succeed in Southern states, as well as certain Midwestern and Western states where white evangelicals(1) make up the largest religious bloc of voters. This group comprises […]

Feb. 17, 2000

McCain Appeals To Pivotal Older Voters and Independents

Introduction and Summary The outcome of the New Hampshire primary has changed candidate support patterns that last year seemed all but cast in stone. Al Gore has drawn into a statistical dead-heat with George W. Bush in a general-election ballot test, largely because core Democrats are rallying behind the vice president. At the same time, […]

Feb. 5, 2000

The Tough Job of Communicating with Voters

Introduction and Summary American voters are hard to reach and hard to move. They rely on a kaleidoscope of media outlets, old and new, to follow news about the presidential campaign — virtually all of which are given a mixed review for political objectivity. And most voters say that political endorsements by celebrities, local newspapers, […]

Jan. 28, 2000

Bradley Deficit Daunting; Bush Closer

The New Hampshire Polls

Jan. 19, 2000

Gore Gains, Bradley Looks More Liberal

Introduction and Summary With the start of the new year, the presidential campaign has begun in earnest for many Americans. More people are paying attention now than in the fall, and the back and forth between candidates has started to change voter perceptions. In particular, Al Gore has begun to redefine himself and challenger Bill […]

Dec. 16, 1999

Campaign Incidents Have Little Punch

Introduction and Summary The rhetoric and events of the presidential campaign so far are having little impact on the attitudes of voters nationwide. Voter preferences are being shaped more by general impressions of the candidates than by what they are saying or by what is happening to them along the campaign trail. While many Americans […]

Dec. 10, 1999

Independents Drive New Hampshire Poll Shifts

Also: The Civilian-Military Gap Flap

Nov. 11, 1999

Retro-Politics

Foreword and Overview Foreword In 1987, we embarked on an ambitious project to better understand the nature of American politics. We identified a broad range of beliefs and values that underlie common political labels and that ultimately drive political action. A voter typology emerged from this effort which classifies the electorate into distinct groupings, defined […]

Oct. 18, 1999

Candidate Qualities May Trump Issues in 2000

Introduction and Summary Even though Americans say that issues matter most, candidates’ personal qualities may be decisive in a campaign without dominant issues. Voters make fine distinctions, however, about what they want to know about candidates personally. Americans strongly reject press inquiry into most avenues of candidates’ private lives, yet at the same time place […]

Mar. 4, 1999

Does an early lead in the polls usually hold up?

A stream of candidate announcements and polls showing Texas Governor George W. Bush leading Vice President Al Gore have spurred interest in the 2000 presidential contest. But with the nominating conventions still more than 16 months away, what do these early polls mean for would-be nominees? A look back at nearly 40 years of early […]

Oct. 21, 1998

GOP Congressional Lead Not Undercut by Backlash

Introduction and Summary The House of Representatives’ decision to hold impeachment hearings has not significantly eroded support for Republicans. Despite a public backlash against proceeding with the inquiry, Republican congressional candidates continue to hold a small lead over Democrats among likely voters nationwide. Further, the Pew Research Center’s latest survey includes an oversample of voters […]

Apr. 3, 1998

Democratic Congressional Chances Helped by Clinton Ratings

Introduction and Summary President Clinton’s lofty performance ratings are benefiting the Democratic Party, which is now in a stronger position with American voters than it has been for some time. In contrast, continuing negative perceptions of Republican congressional leaders are hamstringing the image of their party. By the biggest margin of the decade, the public […]

Nov. 3, 1996

Final Pew Center Survey – Clinton 52%, Dole 38%, Perot 9%

Survey Findings Bill Clinton’s lead over Bob Dole and Ross Perot remains as wide and deep at the end of the final week of the campaign as it has been for the past two months, despite the growing controversy about Democratic campaign finance irregularities. The Pew Research Center’s final survey of 1,211 likely voters, taken […]

Nov. 1, 1996

Dole Appeal Nearly Record Low

As the 1996 election campaign draws to an end, Bob Dole rates as one of the least appealing major party presidential candidates of almost four decades, according to an analysis of favorability ratings by Larry Hugick, director of political surveys at Princeton Survey Research Associates. He ranks 19th out of 20 candidates since 1960. Bill […]

Oct. 25, 1996

Clinton Unites Dems, Gains Working Class Independents

Introduction and Summary After two presidential debates and six weeks of the general campaign Bill Clinton’s lead over Bob Dole is as large as it was in early September. The course of the race has changed little with the passing of each important campaign milestone. The only observable consequence of the debates is that the […]

Oct. 4, 1996

Dole Can’t Cash In on Mixed View of Clinton

Introduction and Summary Bill Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead over Bob Dole and Ross Perot, but it is not because voters are delighted with his record, or because the electorate is euphoric about economic conditions, or because people expect better things to come. American voters are modest in their enthusiasm for Bill Clinton, […]

Sep. 13, 1996

Solid Clinton Lead, Small Gain for Congressional Democrats

Introduction and Summary As the fall campaign begins, Bill Clinton holds a solid lead over challengers Bob Dole and Ross Perot. But the race for control of Congress remains close. While the Democrats have gained some ground on the GOP over the course of the summer, American voters have a more positive view of incumbents […]

Aug. 2, 1996

A Dull Campaign, Clinton Will Win Say More than 70% of Voters

Introduction and Summary An overwhelming majority of Americans (73%) think the presidential campaign is dull so far. Almost as many (71%) believe that President Clinton will defeat expected Republican challenger Bob Dole next November. The former Senate majority leader is widely criticized for the job he is doing as he attempts to convince people to […]