CommentaryMay 2, 2007

The Republicans Can’t Possibly Win in ’08…or Can They?

Republicans are facing an increasingly difficult political terrain in 2008. Yet horse race polls are showing that leading Republican candidates match up pretty well against the Democratic front runners. There are several reasons for this, but the bottom line is that Republicans can be competitive in 2008 — if their nominee is seen as an […]

PublicationsApril 26, 2007

Both Sides Reject Compromise in Iraq Funding Fight

Summary of Findings With battle lines drawn over legislation funding the Iraq war, the public is showing little appetite for compromise. Overall, a solid majority of Americans (59%) continue to say they want their representative to support a bill calling for a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq by August 2008, while just a third want […]

PublicationsFebruary 23, 2007

Voters Remain In Neutral As Presidential Campaign Moves Into High Gear

Summary of Findings The 2008 presidential campaign has kicked off earlier than usual with more candidates than usual, but many people appear not to have noticed. Americans are no more likely to say they have given the presidential campaign much thought than they did in December, and just small minorities can name a candidate they […]

CommentaryNovember 16, 2006

Election ’06: Big Changes in Some Key Groups

Post-mortems on the election have rightly focused on a few big themes: the impact of the war, opinions about President Bush, and the strong Democratic performance among moderates and independents. But the shifting allegiance of some other important voter groups has gotten relatively less attention. One of the biggest stories is about young people. Another […]

CommentaryNovember 6, 2006

Democrats and Republicans See Different Realities

PublicationsNovember 5, 2006

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign’s Final Days

Summary of Findings A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% […]

CommentaryOctober 26, 2006

Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different

Methodology ReportsOctober 26, 2006

Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different: Fewer Registered, More First-time Voters

Methodology ReportsOctober 26, 2006

Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?

PublicationsSeptember 14, 2006

Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

Summary of Findings As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 […]

CommentaryMay 2, 2006

Will White Evangelicals Desert the GOP?

President Bush’s job approval rating has fallen, and his personal favorability is down significantly as well, leading many Republicans to worry about the impact a weakened president will have on his party’s showing in the fall mid-term elections. Even among one of the president’s most supportive constituencies, white evangelical Protestants, Mr. Bush has suffered declines. […]

CommentaryMarch 7, 2006

Independents Sour on Incumbents

CommentaryDecember 6, 2004

Religion and the Presidential Vote

Bush’s Gains Broad-Based

PublicationsOctober 31, 2004

Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

Summary of Findings President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided. […]

PublicationsOctober 27, 2004

Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured

Summary of Findings With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were […]

CommentaryOctober 26, 2004

Candidates Battle Over First-Time Voters, Mothers

A Closer Look at Key Groups

PublicationsOctober 24, 2004

Voters Impressed with Campaign

Summary of Findings Voters express increasingly positive opinions of the 2004 presidential campaign. Virtually all voters ­ 96% ­ believe the campaign is important, while a growing number also view the campaign as interesting. Fully two-thirds of voters (66%) describe the campaign as interesting, up from 50% in early September and just 35% in June. […]

CommentaryOctober 21, 2004

Polls Apart

by Andrew Kohut in the New York Times

PublicationsOctober 4, 2004

Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images

Summary of Findings By two-to-one, voters who watched the first presidential debate believe that John Kerry prevailed. But the widely viewed Sept. 30 showdown did not result in a sea change in opinions of the candidates. As a consequence, George W. Bush continues to have a much stronger personal image than his Democratic challenger, while […]

Multi-section ReportsSeptember 16, 2004

Kerry Support Rebounds, Race Again Even

Introduction and Summary Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush’s edge over his Democratic rival […]