The divide between young voters and older voters was as stark this year as it was in 2008. While Obama lost ground among voters younger than 30, he still won this age group by 24 points over Mitt Romney (60% to 36%). He also maintained a slimmer advantage among voters 30 to 44 (52% Obama, 45% Romney), while losing ground among those 45 to 64 and those 65 and older.

Among all voters 30 and older, Obama ran behind Mitt Romney (48% for Obama, 50% for Romney). Four years ago, Obama edged John McCain, 50% to 49%, among all 30+ voters.

In Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Obama also failed to win a majority of voters 30 and older. Yet he swept all four battleground states, in part because he won majorities of 60% or more among young voters.

Just as critically, young people made up as large a share of the overall electorate as they did in 2008, according to the national exit poll (19% in 2012, 18% in 2008). As recently as September, young voters were significantly less engaged in the campaign than they had been four years earlier. But their interest and engagement levels increased in the campaign’s final weeks. In the Pew Research Center’s final pre-election survey, as many registered voters under 30 said they were giving a lot of thought to the election as did so in the last weekend of the 2008 race.

Obama’s support among young voters declined among many of the same subgroups in the overall electorate in which he lost ground, particularly whites, men and independents. Obama won a majority of white non-Hispanics under 30 in 2008, but lost this group to Romney this year. In contrast, Obama won young African Americans and Hispanics by margins that were about as large as in 2008.

His losses among young voters since 2008 might have been even greater, but for the fact that the under 30s are by far the most racially and ethnically diverse age group. Just 58% are white non-Hispanic, compared with 76% of voters older than 30. A recent report by Pew Social and Demographic Trends found that minorities are on track to become a majority of the overall population by 2050.

Young voters continue to identify with the Democratic Party at relatively high levels and express more liberal attitudes on a range of issues – from gay marriage to the role of the federal government – than do older voters. In fact, voters under 30 were as likely to identify as Democrats in the 2012 exit poll as they had been in 2008 (44% now, 45% then). And they are the only age group in which a majority said that the government should do more to solve problems.

The last two presidential elections have had the widest gaps in voting between young and old of any election since 1972. This year, 60% of those under 30 backed Obama, compared with just 48% of those 30 and older; in 2008, the gap was 16 points (66% of under 30 supported Obama vs. 50% of those 30 and older).

This year’s 12-point difference between old and young this year was identical to the gap in 1972, when 46% of voters 18-29 supported George McGovern compared with just 34% of those 30 and older.

As Pew Research observed a year ago in The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election there were only modest generational differences in presidential vote preferences between 1976 and 2004.

Changes in the Youth Vote: 2008-2012

While Obama carried the youth vote overall, his support declined from 2008 among all young voters and among key subgroups. In particular, Obama lost ground among young whites, men and independents.

Only 44% of white voters under 30 backed Obama, while 51% voted for Romney. This is a substantial change compared with 2008, when Obama carried the young white vote by 10 points (54% to 44%). Far more young blacks and Hispanics backed Obama than Romney, and there was little fall off in his support among these groups from 2008.

Obama also lost support among young men. Overall, 53% of men under 30 supported Obama, down from 62% in 2008. Fully 66% of young women voted for Obama, similar to the 69% who voted for him in 2008.

However, Obama lost support among both white men and women. Overall, 41% of white men supported Obama while 54% supported Romney. In 2008, Obama won the vote among white men, 52% to 46%. While white women voted for Obama over McCain by a 56% to 42% margin four years ago, they were divided this year (48% voted for Obama, 49% for Romney).

Surprisingly, Obama’s vote also declined among young black men, by 14 points, while holding steady among young black women.

Youth Vote in Battleground States

In four of the key battleground states, Obama may not have won without the youth vote. In Florida, 47% of voters 30 and older backed Obama, while 52% supported Romney. But by winning younger voters by two-to-one (66% to 32%), Obama eked out a narrow one-point victory in the state (50% to 49%).

The pattern was similar in Ohio – 48% of voters 30 and older voted for Obama. When younger voters were included, his share of the vote increased to 50% (vs. 48% for Romney). And in both Pennsylvania and Virginia, the youth vote helped push Obama over 50%.

In 2008, Obama won half or more of the vote among those 30 and older in all four states. Thus, he probably would have been able to carry the vote, even with less support from young voters.

The Demography of Young Voters

The racial and ethnic composition of young voters has shifted dramatically over the last four presidential elections. Just 58% of voters age 18-29 identified as white non-Hispanics, while 18% were Hispanic, 17% were African American and 7% identified as mixed-race or some other race. The share of young voters who are white has declined 16 points since 2000, when 74% of voters under 30 identified as white and 26% identified as nonwhite (including 12% who were African American and 10% Hispanic).

This stands in sharp contrast to older voters. Fully 76% of voters 30 and older were white, down only six points from 2000. Only 24% of voters 30 and older were nonwhite, including 12% who identified as black and 8% as Hispanic.

Younger voters also are less likely to be religious than older voters. Only 36% of young voters attend religious services at least weekly, compared with 51% of older voters.

And when it comes to religious affiliation, 47% of young voters say they are Protestant or Christian, but just 16% are white evangelicals. By contrast, 62% of voters 65 and older are Protestant, including 28% who are white evangelicals.
Young voters are three times as likely as voters 65 and older to say they are not affiliated with a religious tradition; 19% of young voters say they have no religious affiliation, compared with just 6% of voters 65 and older.

Party Identification and Issues

Young voters were not only more likely to back Obama, but they are far more likely than older voters to identify as Democrats than their older counterparts. A plurality of voters younger than 30 (44%) consider themselves Democrats while far fewer identify as Republicans (26%) or independents (30%). Young voters are as Democratic as they were in 2008 when 45% identified as Democrats (26% as Republican and 29% as independent).

By comparison, Democrats had just a three-percentage point advantage in party identification among voters 30 and older. Among those voters, 37% identify as Democrats, 34% as Republicans and 25% as independents.

A third of young voters described their political views as liberal, while 41% said they were moderate and just 26% said they were conservative. Among voters 30 and older, 23% said their political views were liberal, 41% said their views were moderate and 37% described themselves as conservative.

Consistent with their strong vote for Obama and their Democratic Party affiliation, young voters also have more liberal views on a variety of issues. A majority (59%) said that the government should do more to solve problems, while 37% said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That is a somewhat narrower margin than in 2008 (69% vs. 27%), but they were still far more likely than older voters to say that the government should do more to solve problems.

Young voters also were far more approving of the 2010 health care law: 53% said it should be expanded (34%) or left as it is (19%). That compares with 42% of 30 and older who favored retaining the health care law or expanding it.

On social issues, 64% of voters younger than 30 said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 58% of voters 30 and older. And they are far more likely than older voters to support allowing gay marriage. Fully 66% of young voters favored their states legally recognizing gay marriage, compared with 45% of voters 30 and older (and just 37% of those 65 and older).

The 2012 presidential campaign was a frustrating experience for many voters, who say the campaign was more negative than usual and had less discussion of issues than in most previous campaigns. Both Obama and Romney get mixed grades for the job they did reaching out to voters, as do campaign consultants, the press and pollsters. On most measures, voters’ views of campaign 2012 fall short of the election four years ago.

Similarly, voters do not have a particularly rosy outlook on national politics going forward. Fully 66% say that relations between Republicans and Democrats will either stay about the same (52%) or get worse (14%) over the next year. And while 56% of voters think Obama will be successful in his coming term, that is down from the 67% who thought his first term would be successful at this point four years ago.

While broad majorities of all voters want Barack Obama (72%) and the Republican leadership (67%) to work with the other side to get things done over the coming year, each party’s political base sends mixed signals. Only about half (46%) of Republicans want GOP leaders to work with Obama to get things done, while about as many (50%) say they should stand up to Obama, even if less gets done. The message to Obama from Democrats is only somewhat more conciliatory: 54% want the president to try to work with Republicans, but 42% do not.

Republicans and Republican leaners remain of the view that the GOP leaders should move in a more conservative direction, not a more moderate one, by a 57% to 35% margin. Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, continue to support more moderation from their political leaders: Nearly six-in-ten (57%) want Democratic leaders to move in a moderate direction, while 33% want them to move in a more liberal direction.

These are the principal findings of the Pew Research Center’s quadrennial post-election survey, conducted Nov 8-11, 2012 among 1,206 voters who were originally interviewed before the election. The poll finds that, despite expressing strong criticisms of the campaign, most voters say they were satisfied with the choice of presidential candidates and believe they learned enough about them over the course of the campaign to make an informed choice. The presidential debates, in particular, stand out as positive – about two-thirds (66%) say they were helpful in learning about the candidates.

Republican voters are about as likely as Democratic voters to say they learned enough about the candidates to make an informed choice and to have found the debates helpful.

Republicans also are less critical of their candidate, and their party, today than they were after John McCain’s loss in 2008. Fully 75% of Republican voters give Mitt Romney a grade of A or B for the way he conducted his campaign. In the post-election survey four years ago, 63% of Republican voters gave McCain an A or B. In that regard, more GOP voters say they were satisfied with their choice of candidates this year than after the 2008 election (57% now, 38% then).

Republicans also are more positive about the GOP’s performance in the campaign. Six-in-ten GOP voters (60%) give their party grades of A or B for the way it conducted the campaign; just 44% rated the party that positively after the election four years ago.

But Republicans give the voters much lower grades than in 2008 – just 29% give a grade of A or B, down from 47%. In fact, Republicans’ grades for the voters equal the lowest grades given by members of either party dating back to 1988. In 1996, after Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton, just 30% of Republicans gave the voters positive grades.

The survey finds that internet has again grown as a source of campaign news. Nearly half (47%) of voters say the internet was a main source of campaign news over the course of the election, up from 36% four years ago. The internet now far surpasses newspapers (27%) as a main source of campaign news, though it still trails television (67%).

In this vein, virtually all voters (92%) who followed the returns on election night tracked them on television, and 34% followed the returns on the internet. Slightly more than a quarter of voters (27%) were “dual screeners,” using both television and the internet to get information. Among voters younger than 40, 39% of those who followed returns on election night kept track both by watching TV and following online.

Election night is also a social experience for some voters: 16% of those who followed election returns did so with friends, while 8% used social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to track the results. Obama supporters were more likely to watch returns with friends, and to use social networks to follow results, than were voters who supported Romney.
Aside from long lines, few voters report having had problems casting their ballots. Some 37% of the voters interviewed say they cast their ballot before Election Day, 19% in person and 17% by mail. Many early voters cite convenience as the main factor they cast their ballots early, but for those who went to early voting sites the lines were often just as long as for those who waited until Election Day.

While most say the voting process in their area was managed well and that they are very confident that their votes were accurately counted, confidence about the vote nationwide is down from 2008. About three-in-ten (31%) voters say they are very confident that the votes across the country were accurately counted this year, down from 43% four years ago. Just 21% of Romney voters say they are very confident in the accuracy of this year’s vote, down from 29% among McCain supporters four years ago. Skepticism is also up among Obama supporters, 42% are very confident that the nation’s votes were accurately counted, down from 56% after the 2008 election.

November 14, 2012

Postelection talk of “lessons learned” is ­often exaggerated and misleading, and so it is in 2012.

A week after President Obama won re-election, two themes are dominant. First, that Mr. Obama kept his job because key elements of his base—notably young people, African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans—turned out for him. Second, that the growing size of these voting blocs represents a decisive challenge for the Republican party.

Both points are true, but most observers are overstating the gravity of the GOP’s problem. In particular, they are paying too little attention to how weak a candidate Mitt Romney was, and how much that hurt Republican prospects.

Here is what the exit poll found. Mr. Romney’s personal image took a hard hit during the primary campaign and remained weak on election day. Just 47% of exit-poll respondents viewed him favorably, compared with 53% for Mr. Obama. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorable ratings were among the lowest recorded for a presidential candidate in the modern era. A persistent problem was doubt about his empathy with the average voter. By 53% to 43%, exit-poll respondents said that Mr. Obama was more in touch than Mr. Romney with people like themselves.

Mr. Romney was never fully embraced by Republicans themselves, which may have inhibited the expected strong Republican turnout. Pew’s election-weekend survey found Mr. Romney with fewer strong supporters (33%) than Mr. Obama (39%). Similarly, a much greater percentage of Obama supporters (80%) than Romney supporters (60%) told Pew that they were voting for their candidate rather than against his opponent.

Continue reading at WSJ.com

Overall, Obama benefited from relatively strong turnout – both nationally and in key battleground states – among young people and minorities. Obama won voters younger than 30 by a somewhat smaller margin than he did four years ago, but these voters made up about as large a share of the electorate as they did in 2008, according to national exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool. Moreover, African Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans backed Obama by huge margins.

Nationally, nonwhite voters made up 28% of all voters, up from 26% in 2008. Obama won 80% of these voters, the same as four years ago.

Obama’s support from nonwhites was a critical factor in battleground states, especially Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, blacks were 15% of the electorate, up from 11% in 2008. In Florida, Hispanics were 17% of the electorate, a slight increase from 14% in 2008. While minority compositional gains were not huge, they offset a strong tilt against Obama among white voters. Nationally, Romney won the white vote, 59% to 39%.

Owing to comparatively strong turnout from Obama’s base, the composition of the electorate in 2012 was strikingly similar to that of four years ago: Nationally, Democrats made up 38% of all voters, Republicans 32% and independents 24%. This enabled Obama to win re-election even though he lost the independent vote. Romney won independents by a 50% to 46% margin. Four years ago, Obama carried independents by 52% to 44%.

Evidence of the demographic transformation of the electorate is seen in the profiles of each candidate’s supporters: Fully 89% of Romney’s were white non-Hispanics, compared with just 56% of Obama’s supporters. Romney managed to better McCain’s showing among whites by four percentage points – and still lost the election.

Continued support from women was also an important factor that helped Obama stay above water in the swing states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio. He held or improved his 2008 margins among women in all three states, while losing support among men. Nationally, Obama won women voters by nearly as much he did in 2008.

Obama’s advantages among women, minorities and young people helped offset his continued weakness among white voters. Obama’s falloff in white support was broad-based, crossing many demographics – working class whites, college graduates and even women.

The economy was clearly the dominant issue of the election, but the extent to which voters held Obama accountable for their economic frustrations was limited. Nationally, 59% said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, but voters overall were divided over which candidate could do a better job on the issue: 48% said Obama, while 49% said Romney. However, by a 53% to 38% margin, voters blamed Bush, not Obama, for the economic problems the nation is facing.

Obama also was aided by nascent economic optimism. By a 39% to 30% margin, more said the national economy is getting better rather than getting worse, and given the very strong correlation between that opinion and vote choice, that cut in Obama’s favor.
When it comes to how people feel about their own financial situation, more said they are worse off today than four years ago than better off, and most of those who expressed that opinion supported Romney. Yet importantly, a plurality of voters (41%) said they are doing the about same today as four years ago. These voters backed Obama by a wide margin (58%-40%).

Voters’ views of Obama were similar to those of George W. Bush eight years ago. After falling below 50% in job approval for much of the year, he reached 53% approval on Election Day – the same as Bush’s in 2004.

The biggest national trend in Romney’s favor was the public’s distaste for more expansive government. More voters said government is doing too many things than said government should do more, by 51% to 43%. But a populist streak regarding the lack of fairness in the system cuts the opposite way. Most voters (55%) say the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy, compared with 39% who say it is fair to most Americans. And a majority thought that Romney’s policies would favor the rich, while a plurality thought Obama policies would favor the middle class.

Romney improved his personal image substantially over the course of the campaign, but in the end he still was not as viewed as favorably as Obama. The national exit polls found that 47% viewed Romney favorably, up substantially from a low of 29% of registered voters in March during the bruising GOP primary. However, on Election Day, 53% viewed Obama favorably.

In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted about 43% of the voting age population.

Nonvoters favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a wide margin (59% to 24%). While most nonvoters (64%) have a favorable view of Obama, just half as many (32%) view Romney favorably.

By contrast, likely voters are evenly divided in Pew Research’s most recent national survey (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Nearly identical percentages of likely voters view Obama and Romney favorably (51% Obama, 52% Romney).

A plurality of nonvoters are independents (44%); 29% identify as Democrats and just 17% as Republicans. Likely voters include about the same percentages of Democrats (35%) as Republicans (34%); 27% of likely voters are independents.

About half of nonvoters (52%) either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; only 27% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. Likely voters’ leaned party identification is evenly divided: 47% identify with the Republican Party or lean toward the GOP, while the same percentage identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
However, just a quarter of nonvoters describe their political views as liberal; that is little different from the percentage of liberals among likely voters (20%). But nonvoters are far less likely than voters to describe their political views as conservative (28% vs. 44% of likely voters).

As might be expected, nonvoters express very little interest in politics or the election. A third of nonvoters say they are registered to vote. But they are far less likely than voters to give a lot of thought to the election and follow public affairs.

Demographic Differences Between Voters, Nonvoters

Nonvoters are younger, less educated and less affluent than are likely voters. More than a third (36%) of nonvoters are younger than 30, compared with just 13% of likely voters.

Just 13% of nonvoters are college graduates and about the same percentage (14%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more. Among likely voters, 38% are college graduates and a third (33%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more.

While most voters are married, most nonvoters are not. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of nonvoters are unmarried, compared with 40% of likely voters.

Nonvoters also are much more likely than voters to be Hispanic: 21% of nonvoters are Hispanic, which is three times the percentage of Hispanics among likely voters (7%). About six-in-ten (59%) nonvoters are white non-Hispanics. By contrast, white non-Hispanics make up about three quarters (74%) of likely voters.

Nonvoters and Voters on the Issues

Nonvoters express more liberal opinions than voters on a wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues. But the differences are far less pronounced on social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.

Far more nonvoters than voters favor activist government. About half of nonvoters (52%) say the government should do more to solve problems, while 40% say the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. The balance of opinion is reversed among likely voters: 56% say the government is doing too much, while 39% say the government should do more to solve problems.

By 46% to 31%, more nonvoters favor keeping the 2010 health care law in place than repealing the law; 23% do not express an opinion. Voters are more evenly divided, with 49% favoring the law’s repeal and 43% saying it should remain in place; just 8% do not express an opinion.

There are smaller differences in the opinions of voters and nonvoters on tax policy: 55% of nonvoters and 51% of likely voters say it would better for the economy to maintain current tax rates on income under $250,000 while raising taxes on income about that level. A third of nonvoters, and 42% of likely voters say it would better to lower tax rates for all Americans by 20%, while limiting some tax deductions.

On foreign policy, a clear majority of likely voters (56%) favor withdrawing U.S. forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible; 40% say they should remain until the situation there is stabilized. Support for an immediate withdrawal is even more widespread among nonvoters (67% favor).

Nonvoters also are less supportive of taking hard line against Iran’s nuclear program: 45% say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran, while 40% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran. Among likely voters, 62% favor taking a firm stand against Iran while just 31% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict.

On gay marriage and abortion, however, there are at most modest differences between nonvoters and likely voters. And there are no significant differences in opinions about the impact of immigrants on the country.

Identical percentages of nonvoters and likely voters favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally (49% each). Somewhat fewer nonvoters oppose gay marriage (36% vs. 42% of voters ), while more have no opinion (15% vs. 9%).

Nonvoters have the same views on abortion as likely voters: 54% of nonvoters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 39% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Among likely voters, 55% favor legal abortion in all or most cases; 38% say it should be mostly illegal.

Like voters, nonvoters express mixed opinions about the impact of the growing population of immigrants on the U.S.: 27% say it has been a change for the better, 34% a change for the worse, while 34% say it has not made much difference.

Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.

Clearly, both campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the nine battleground states: Fully 78% of registered voters in those states say they have received something in the mail from one or more of the presidential candidates, while 60% have gotten pre-recorded calls about the campaign. Nationwide, 49% have received mail from the candidates and 42% have gotten campaign robocalls.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds that about a third of all voters (32%) say they have been contacted by the Obama campaign (11%) or both campaigns (21%), while about as many (31%) say they have been contacted by the Romney campaign (10%) or both (21%). The survey was conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the U.S.

Similarly, among voters in the nine battleground states, nearly identical percentages say they have been contacted by both campaigns (51% by Obama or both, 52% by Romney or both.)

There are only modest differences in reported campaign contacts between Obama and Romney voters in the nine battleground states. Large majorities of both Obama voters and Romney voters say they have received mail from the candidates and pre-recorded campaign calls. And identical percentages of both groups say they have received personal phone calls from someone about the campaign (40% each).

However, Obama voters in the battleground states are more likely than Romney voters to say that they have received emails or text messages about the campaign (43% vs. 30%) or have been visited at home by someone talking about the campaign (25% vs. 14%).

More than six-in-ten (63%) Obama voters in battleground states say they have been contacted by either the Obama campaign (25%) or both campaigns (38%). About as many Romney voters (62%) in these states say they have been contacted by either the Romney campaign (21%) or both campaigns.

Early Voting 2008-2012

Both campaigns have made efforts to increase early voting, particularly in the battleground states. Overall, about a quarter of registered voters (26%) who have been contacted by either the Obama campaign, the Romney campaign, or both, say they have been encouraged to vote before Election Day. Among voters in the battleground states who have been contacted by the campaigns, 36% have been encouraged to vote early.

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

Campaign Activism

The poll finds that Romney’s supporters are more likely than supporters of Obama to say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. But on other measures of campaign activism there is little difference between supporters of the two candidates.

One-in-five Obama voters (20%), and about the same percentage of Romney voters (18%), say they have followed a candidate’s updates on Twitter or Facebook. A somewhat greater share of Obama voters than Romney voters say they have contributed any money to the presidential candidates (23% of Obama voters, 15% of Romney voters).

There are age differences in the percentages of voters who follow the candidates on social networks. About a quarter (26%) of voters younger than 30 follow candidate updates on Twitter or Facebook. That compares with 24% of voters 30-to-49, 15% of those 50-to-64 and 8% of those 65 and older.

Robo-Calls: Most Don’t Listen

Far more voters in battleground states receive pre-recorded calls about the campaign than do voters in less contested states. But their reactions are similar: 64% of voters in battleground states who get such calls do not listen to them. Similar percentages of voters in red states (72%) and blue states (71%) hang up on robocalls.

Among those who do not listen to robocalls, overwhelming percentages in all states, including 77% in battleground states, treat them as a minor annoyance. Just one-in-five voters in battleground states, and similar percentages in red and blue states, who hang up on robocalls say such calls make them angry.

Politics from the Pulpit

While many regular churchgoers say they have been encouraged to vote by their clergy, relatively few say church leaders are discussing the candidates directly or favoring one candidate over the other. Black Protestants are far more likely than white Protestants or Catholics to say they are hearing about the candidates and the importance of voting, and the messages they are hearing overwhelmingly favor Barack Obama.

Among those who attend religious services at least once or twice a month, about half (52%) say their clergy have spoken out about the importance of voting over the past few months. Just one-in-five (19%) say their clergy have spoken about the candidates themselves, according to the survey, conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life and the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) black Protestant churchgoers say their clergy have spoken out about the importance of voting, compared with about half of white evangelical Protestant (52%) and white Catholic (46%) churchgoers. Only about a third (32%) of white mainline Protestants who attend services say their clergy have discussed the importance of voting.

Black Protestants are twice as likely as churchgoers overall to be hearing about the candidates at church. Among regular churchgoers, four-in-ten (40%) black Protestants say their clergy have spoken directly about the candidates, compared with 17% of white Catholics, 12% of white evangelicals and just 5% of white mainline Protestants.

Most regular churchgoers say the messages they are hearing in church are neutral when it comes to the 2012 election – whether or not they mention the candidates directly. Only about three-in-ten say what they are hearing at church is more supportive of one candidate or the other. Among those who feel their clergy’s messages favor a candidate, roughly equal numbers say the messages support Obama (15%) as Romney (14%).

What people are hearing varies greatly by race. Nearly half (45%) of black Protestant churchgoers say the messages they hear at church favor a candidate, and every one of those says the message favors Obama. Fewer white churchgoers say they are hearing things that favor a candidate, but among those who are, the messages are far more favorable to Romney than Obama. In particular, white evangelical churchgoers say their clergy have tended to be more supportive of Romney (26%) than Obama (5%). Among white Catholic churchgoers, 21% say their clergy’s messages have been more supportive of Romney, compared with 4% who say the messages have been more supportive of Obama.

Overall, few voters are hearing messages at church that conflict with their own voting preferences. Among churchgoers who favor Obama, 32% say what they are hearing at church is supportive of Obama, compared with just 5% who say the messages from their clergy are more supportive of Romney. Similarly, among Romney voters who attend services at least monthly, more are hearing messages favorable to Romney (24%) than Obama (1%).

Clergy Discussion of the Issues

Three-quarters of those who say they attend religious services at least monthly (74%) say their clergy have recently spoken out about hunger and poverty. Roughly one-third say their clergy have spoken out about abortion (37%) and homosexuality (33%). One-fifth of those who attend religious services at least monthly have heard their clergy speak out about government policies they believe restrict religious liberty (21%), and 16% say their clergy have addressed immigration.

Large majorities of churchgoers in all major religious groups say their clergy have spoken out about hunger and poverty, including 83% of white Catholics, 74% of black Protestants, 73% of white mainline Protestants and 69% of white evangelicals.

Catholics report having heard about abortion from the pulpit at higher rates than other groups; 62% of Catholics say their clergy have discussed abortion, compared with 36% of white evangelical Protestants, 29% of black Protestants and 19% of white mainline Protestants. Three-in-ten Catholics (32%) also say their clergy have spoken out about religious liberty; fewer Protestants (18%) say their clergy have discussed this issue.

Four-in-ten white evangelicals say their clergy have spoken out recently about homosexuality, and 37% of black Protestants say the same. By comparison, fewer white mainline Protestants (24%) and white Catholics (20%) say their clergy have addressed this issue.

Campaign News Interest

In a separate survey, conducted Oct. 25-28, 2012, 52% say they are following news about the campaign very closely, which is little changed from last week (48%).

During the same week four years ago (Oct. 24-27, 2008), 44% tracked election news very closely, down from 61% a week earlier. Interest in campaign news subsequently rebounded. During the weekend before the 2008 election (Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2008), 57% followed news about the election very closely.

October News Interest

The news interest survey finds that the election and the nation’s economy were the public’s top stories in October.

The current survey finds relatively modest interest in Hurricane Sandy; 28% tracked news about the hurricane very closely. The survey was conducted before the hurricane hit the East Coast on Oct. 29.

As the presidential campaign enters its final week, Barack Obama has failed to regain much of the support he lost in the days following the first presidential debate and the race is now even among likely voters: 47% favor Obama while an identical percentage supports Mitt Romney.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds Obama holding a statistically insignificant two-point edge among registered voters: 47% to 45%. This is little different from the 46% to 46% standoff among registered voters observed in early October, in the days following the first debate.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches. In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters. In September, the gap was more modest.

Indeed, surveys over the past month have found Republicans becoming much more upbeat about the race and about Mitt Romney himself. More Republicans now see the campaign as interesting and informative. And compared with September, a greater proportion of Romney voters now say they are voting for him rather than against Obama.

The deadlock in candidate support continues to reflect the offsetting strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates. Romney’s personal image has improved substantially since the summer, and his favorability rating among registered voters (50%) is now about the same as Obama’s (52%).

But Obama continues to lead his rival on many personal characteristics and issues. Obama is seen as the candidate with more moderate positions on issues and as more willing to work with members of the other party. He also holds wide advantages on empathy and consistency. Obama leads Romney by about two-to-one (59% to 31%) as the candidate who connects well with ordinary Americans, and by 51% to 36% as the candidate who takes consistent positions on issues.

Obama also leads Romney by nine points on better representing voters’ views on abortion and by about the same margin (50% to 42%) on making wise decisions about foreign policy.

Moreover, majorities of voters continue to agree with criticisms frequently lodged against Romney. About six-in-ten (61%) agree that Romney is “promising more than he can deliver” while 53% say “it’s hard to know what Romney really stands for.” Both percentages are virtually unchanged since early October.

Romney’s strengths – and Obama’s weaknesses – continue to be the economy and the budget deficit. More see the former Massachusetts governor as better able to improve the job situation, by a 50% to 42% margin. Half of voters agree that “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around.” And more voters say Romney has new ideas than say that about Obama (46% vs. 41%).

The poll finds that this year’s debates collectively have had a much more positive impact on opinions of Romney than on views of Obama. Twice as many voters say they have a better opinion of Romney as a result of the debates than say that about Obama (36% vs. 18%).

And Romney continues to run about even with Obama on a number of issues on which he trailed earlier in the campaign, including health care and energy. Similarly, voters are divided over whether Obama (46%) or Romney (44%) would do better in dealing with taxes.

The poll finds familiar divides in support patterns among likely voters. Among age cohorts, Millennials continue to support Obama, while Gen Xers and Boomers split their support between the two candidates. Voters in the Silent Generation support Romney by a wide margin. Whites, especially working class whites, strongly favor Romney, while African Americans overwhelmingly favor Obama.

Overall, the poll shows a modest gender gap. Men lean to Romney by a seven-point margin, women lean to Obama by about the same margin (six points). The marital gap is much wider. Both married men and women favor Romney, while 59% of unmarried women – and 56% of unmarried men – support Obama.

The swing vote has not decreased significantly since early October. Among likely voters, 13% are either undecided, lean toward a candidate or support Romney or Obama but say they could still change their mind. In early October, 14% were swing voters.

Third-party candidates attract scant support from likely voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson polls at 2% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at less than 1%. This is comparable to levels of support for third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr at this stage in the 2008 campaign.

The 2012 Matchup

With voter preferences split evenly between Obama and Romney among likely voters, support for Barack Obama is substantially lower than it was in the election four years ago, according to national exit polls.

But Obama has held his ground among some voting blocs over this time period. Notably, he runs about as well among middle-aged voters (30-64) and those with high incomes as he did four years ago, and he continues to garner near universal support from blacks. His support among Democrats is slightly higher than in 2008.

Obama has lost ground since 2008 among young voters as well as those 65 and older. His support has also slipped among voters in the middle and lower-income brackets. Most notably, while Obama won independent voters by an eight-point margin in 2008, he now trails Romney by an identical margin among independents.

Among white voters, Obama’s support has slipped more among those without a college degree than among college graduates. Currently, Obama trails Romney by nearly two-to-one among white voters who do not have a college degree.

Romney Support More Positive

For the first time this year, a majority of registered voters who support Romney (57%) now think of their vote as a vote for Mitt Romney, not as a vote against Barack Obama. As recently as September, just over half of Romney voters (52%) said their main motivation was their opposition to Obama.

By contrast, registered voters who favor Obama have consistently described their vote as a vote for the president. Currently, 73% of Obama’s supporters say they are voting for the president, while just 24% are voting against Romney.

Consistent with this, as many Romney as Obama voters express strong support for their candidate. This continues the pattern seen in the Pew Research poll in early October, after the first presidential debate, which represented a shift from polling earlier in the year when Romney’s support was much more tepid.

Assessing Voter Turnout

As in many previous elections, turnout measures appear to favor the Republican candidate. In the poll, more of Mitt Romney’s than Barack Obama’s supporters say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. By a four-point margin, Romney supporters say they have given a lot of thought to the election (82% vs. 78%). Similarly, 66% of those voting for Romney say they have been following the campaign very closely. Fewer of Obama’s supporters (60%) say this. And 88% of Romney supporters say they will definitely vote, compared with 83% for the president.

Obama’s supporters report greater engagement now than they did earlier this month, just after the first presidential debate. The percentage who report giving a lot of thought to the election rose from 67% to 78%, and 60% now say they are following the campaign very closely, compared with 44% earlier in the month.

While turnout forecasts are very difficult, the level of engagement at this point in the campaign suggests that a relatively high percentage of voters will go to the polls. Compared with final pre-election polls in four previous elections, the percentage giving a lot of thought to the election is higher than in 2000 and 1996, and only slightly lower than in 2008 and 2004 – both high turnout elections. Similarly, the percentage saying they definitely plan to vote is 84%, not significantly different from the figures in 2008 and 2004.

Who Will Win Nov. 6?

Overall, more voters continue to expect Barack Obama to win the election (49%) than think Romney will win (31%). This reflects the continued confidence of Obama’s supporters – throughout the year at least eight-in-ten Obama backers have said they expect him to win. Romney supporters, by comparison, are less uniformly confident. Currently 64% of Romney voters say they believe Romney will win, while 17% think Obama will win and 19% are not sure.

But Romney backers are more confident now than they were in September, when their candidate trailed in most national polling.

Views of Candidate Traits, Issue Strengths

Since the aftermath of the first presidential debate, there has been little change in perceptions about the personal qualities of the two presidential candidates. Obama continues to hold a lead over Romney on empathy (by a 59%-31% margin, voters say he is the candidate who is better able to connect with ordinary Americans), and on taking consistent positions on issues (51%-36%). He also has a modest advantage on the question of which candidate takes more moderate positions (50%-38%).

But on questions of honesty, working with leaders of the other party, strength of leadership and coming up with new ideas, the candidates are evenly matched. Despite the fact that Obama was perceived as the candidate of change in 2008, 46% now say Romney is the candidate with new ideas; 41% say this better describes Obama. However, Obama has a comparably small edge on honesty, on being a strong leader and on working across the aisle.

The public is closely divided in its evaluations of which candidate can better handle the key issues facing the country. Romney holds an advantage on reducing the deficit (51%-37%) and a smaller edge on improving the job situation (50%-42%).

The candidates battle to a draw on several other important issues: dealing with the nation’s energy problems (46% Romney-45% Obama), dealing with taxes (46% Obama, 44% Romney), dealing with health care (47% Obama, 45% Romney) and dealing with Medicare (48% Obama, 43% Romney).

Obama has a modest advantage on two other issues. On foreign policy 50% say Obama is the candidate better able to make wise decisions about foreign policy (compared with 42% for Romney), while 48% say he’s better at representing the voter’s views on abortion (compared with 39% for Romney).

Since much of the electorate has already made up its mind – not to mention having possibly voted – attention turns to the swing voters, including those who are undecided or have a weak commitment to their candidate.

Swing voters in the current poll favor Mitt Romney on the critical issue of improving the job situation (41% Romney, 32% Obama) and also on the deficit (41% Romney, 28% Obama). More swing voters also view Romney as the candidate of new ideas (44% Romney, 28% Obama). But Obama matches or surpasses Romney on every other issue and candidate trait, including empathy, honesty, consistency, strength of leadership, moderation and willingness to work across party lines.

Candidate Images

Mitt Romney trailed Barack Obama most of the year in personal favorability but closed the gap after the first presidential debate and maintains that parity in the current poll. Half of registered voters (50%) say they have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 52% favorable for Barack Obama. Comparable numbers of voters say they have a very favorable opinion of each of the candidates (23% for Obama, 19% for Romney), as well as a very unfavorable opinion (26% each).

Voters are evenly divided in their views of the vice presidential candidates; 44% have a favorable view of Joe Biden, and 45% have a favorable view of Paul Ryan.

Looking at frequent criticisms of the presidential candidates, 61% of voters agree that Romney “is promising more than he can deliver,” while 35% disagree. Just more than half (53%) agree that “it’s hard to know what Romney really stands for”; 44% disagree.

Half of voters (50%) agree that Obama “doesn’t know how to turn the economy around”; about as many (47%) disagree. About four-in-ten (42%) agree that Obama “thinks government is the solution to every problem.” Just more than half (53%) disagree with this statement.

Not only are young registered voters less engaged, but fewer young people are registered to vote. In all Pew Research Center polling conducted over the course of 2012, only half (50%) of adults under 30 say they are absolutely certain that they are registered. This compares with 61% in 2008 and 57% in 2004. Registration rates typically rise over the course of election years, but for youth voter registration to reach 2008 levels the figures will have to shift decidedly over the coming month.

Both of these trends are disadvantages for Barack Obama, who continues to hold a wide lead among young voters. In the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, registered voters under 30 favored Obama over Romney by 59% to 33%, and that margin has held relatively steady over the course of the year.

But so far, any potential damage to Obama has been mitigated by three factors. First, the decline in youth engagement is not limited to Obama supporters. In fact, the dropoff is at least as steep among young voters who intend to vote Republican. Second, other segments of Obama’s electoral base – notably African Americans – remain highly engaged in the election. Third, declining engagement in a key Republican subgroup – moderate Republicans – at least partially offsets falling interest among the young.

Youth Engagement Slips

While most measures of voter engagement remain fairly high in 2012, overall interest and commitment to voting is down slightly when compared with the highly-charged 2008 election campaign. The share of registered voters who score high (three out of four) on a scale of four questions about interest in the campaign and intention to vote has slipped from 86% to 80% overall.

This slippage is particularly steep among voters under 30; just 61% are highly engaged in the 2012 campaign, down from 75% at this point four years ago. By contrast, fully 86% of voters 65 and older are highly engaged, which is unchanged from four years ago. Interest also is down among voters 30-to-49 (eight points) and those 50-to-64 (six points), although both groups remain more engaged in the election than those under 30.

The drop in youth engagement does not have a political tilt to it; the slippage is equally evident among both Obama and Romney supporters. Among voters under 40 who support Obama, 58% have given a lot of thought to the election this year, down from 70% among young Obama supporters four years ago.

But the trend among young Republican voters is almost identical. Just 59% of young voters who support Romney have given a lot of thought to the election, down from 75% among young McCain supporters in 2008. (For this analysis, all voters under age 40 are analyzed because there are too few 18-to-29- year-old Romney supporters to evaluate separately.)

The decline in engagement among voters age 40-to-64 also has come among voters in both parties. Among Obama supporters in this age group, there has been a 12-point decline in the percentage giving a lot of thought to the election; among Romney supporters 40-to-64, there has been an eight-point decline since 2008. Engagement among voters 65 and older is similar to 2008; older Obama and Romney supporters are as engaged as Obama and McCain supporters were in 2008.

The pattern is nearly identical in levels of campaign news interest. Fewer voters younger than 40 and 40-to-64 say they are very closely following campaign news than in 2008 and the declines are comparable among Obama supporters and Romney supporters. Voters 65 and older are as interested in campaign news as they were four years ago; there are no differences between Obama and Romney voters.

This pattern is consistent with the lack of an engagement gap between Republicans and Democrats overall. Since the summer, Democratic interest in the campaign has surged, closing an engagement deficit that was apparent earlier in the year.

While younger voters make up a larger share of the Democratic base – and their enthusiasm decline could affect Democratic turnout levels in November – there is a comparable decline in GOP engagement as well, particularly in the moderate wing of the party. Just 73% of moderate and liberal Republicans, a group that accounts for 27% of Republican voters overall, are highly engaged in the current survey, down from 89% four years ago.

Drop in Voter Registration, Especially Among Young

Voter registration rates have declined since 2008, especially among young people. In interviews conducted over the course of 2012 so far, 72% of adults 18 and older say they are absolutely certain they are registered to vote. This is lower than in 2008, when 79% were registered to vote and in 2004 (76% registered to vote).

In polls conducted from January to September, just half of those under 30 are certain they are registered to vote – 11 points lower than in 2008 – and the lowest number in the past 16 years of Pew Research Center polling. There also has been a nine-point decline in voter registration among those 30-to-49. Voter registration has slipped four points among those 50-to-64 but is virtually unchanged among those 65 and older.

More people still may register to vote in the five weeks remaining before the election. Voter registration typically increases in the second half of election years, especially among young people. In 2008, the share of young adults who said they were certain they were registered jumped six percentage points from the first half to the second half of the year.

Yet even when these seasonal factors are taken into account, young adults are starting this year with the lowest registration rate of the last five presidential elections. In polling conducted over the first six months of 2012, half (50%) of adults younger than 30 say they are certain that they are registered. This compares to a 57% registration rate in the first half of 2008, which rose to 64% over the latter part of that year.

Age Gap in Voting Preferences

Throughout this election cycle, Obama has consistently held a substantial lead over Romney among young voters. In polls conducted since April, he holds a 59% to 35% advantage among registered voters under 30. That is somewhat narrower than the 66% to 32% margin he had over McCain in 2008.

Obama has lost support from 2008 among young men and young white voters. Obama holds a 53% to 40% advantage over Romney among men under 30 but that is narrower than the 27-point margin he had over McCain in 2008. There has been little change among young women voters; 65% back Obama while just 31% support Romney. There is now a 12-point gap in Obama’s support between young men and young women.

Obama has lost substantial ground among young white voters. He had a 10-point advantage among this group in 2008, but they are now divided (47% support Obama, 47% support Romney). Young non-whites still back Obama by a wide margin (81% to 14%).

Obama’s support is equally strong among younger and older members of the 18-29 age group. He leads Romney by 60% to 35% among voters ages 18-24 and by 57%-36% among those in the 25-29 age group. Among voters 18-21, who were not eligible to vote in 2008, Obama holds a 61% to 36% margin. Similarly, Obama receives about the same level of support from young voters who have attended college and those that have not.

Less than five months before Election Day, voters are not as engaged with the presidential campaign as they were at this point four years ago, when interest in the campaign reached record levels. But voter engagement today generally equals or surpasses levels from the four campaigns prior to 2008, indicating that 2012 could be another relatively high turnout election.

Two-thirds of registered voters say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, which is down slightly from 2008 but higher than in any campaign from 1992 through 2004. Interest in election news, also lower than four years ago, surpasses interest in all other campaigns since 1992.

The percentage of registered voters who say they are more interested in politics than they were four years ago, which hit an all-time high in June 2008, is down sharply since then. Even so, the 48% who say they are now more interested in politics is identical to the number saying this in 2004 – and higher than the numbers expressing comparatively greater interest in politics than in 2000 and 1996.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 7-17 among 2,013 adults, including 1,563 registered voters, finds that the contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is shaping up to be a close one. Not only is the horserace nearly even – 50% of registered voters currently support Obama or lean toward him, while 46% support or lean toward Romney – but each party holds distinctly different advantages.

Republicans hold the edge on several turnout measures, in contrast to 2008 when Democrats had leads – some quite substantial – on nearly every indicator. More Republican voters than Democratic voters are giving quite a lot of thought to the election (73% of Republicans vs. 66% of Democrats) and paying very close attention to election news (45% vs. 37%). In 2008, Democrats held leads on both interest measures, the first time that had occurred in campaigns dating to 1992.

Moreover, GOP voters are more likely than Democrats to say it really matters who wins the 2012 election (72% vs. 65%). Four years ago, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say it really mattered who prevailed.

Yet Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidate. Most Obama backers support him strongly, while most Romney voters support him only moderately. Similarly, Democrats are more satisfied with the choice of candidates than are Republicans: 68% of Democratic voters say they are satisfied with the field compared with 60% of Republican voters. This is a smaller gap than at this point in 2008, when 74% of Democrats and just 49% of Republicans were satisfied with the field. However, the GOP led in candidate satisfaction during both of George W. Bush’s successful campaigns in 2000 and 2004.

Presidential Horserace Narrows

Voter preferences are more closely divided between Obama and Romney than they were in May, when Obama led Romney by seven points (49% to 42%). Currently, 50% favor Obama while 46% back Romney. Yet it is notable that in eight general election matchups since last October, Romney has never led Obama.

And Obama’s strong support nearly doubles Romney’s – 30% of registered voters back him strongly compared with just 17% who support Romney strongly. Obama’s advantage in strong support is about as large today as it was over John McCain in June 2008 (28% to 14%).

However, Romney’s deficit in strong support does not appear to be hurting him. While Romney’s supporters are less positive about him, they are as committed to vote for him as Obama voters are committed to vote for the president. This may reflect the fact that more Republicans than Democrats say it really matters who wins the election. Fully 91% of Romney supporters have an unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama, with 53% offering a very unfavorable assessment.

Romney Leads on Economy

Romney’s recent gains in the horserace have come during a period when more Americans reported hearing bad news about the economy. The current survey finds that views of national economic conditions remain abysmal. Perhaps more important, the percentage saying they expect conditions to improve over the next year has fallen 1o points, from 44% to 34%, since March.

The slide in economic optimism points to Romney’s most important advantage in the race. Nearly half of registered voters (49%) say Romney would do the best job of improving economic conditions, compared with 41% who favor Obama.

Yet Romney trails Obama by wide margins on connecting well with ordinary people, honesty and truthfulness, consistency, displaying good judgment and several other personal dimensions.

Romney’s personal favorability has risen by 12 points since March – from just 29% then to 41% today. Still, more voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney than a favorable view (47% vs. 41%). No previous candidate in the past 20 years has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in the campaign cycle.

While Obama’s image has slipped modestly since March it remains more positive than Romney’s. Half of voters have a favorable opinion of Obama (50%) and about the same percentage has an unfavorable view (48%).

Other Findings: Fall Predictions, Views of Ann Romney

• Obama Still Favored to Win.  About half of registered voters (52%) say Obama is most likely to win in November, while just 34% expect Romney to win. In March, 59% said Obama was most likely to win. Even many Romney supporters have doubts about his chances – 37% say either that Obama is most likely to win (21%), or have no opinion (16%). Just 19% of Obama supporters expect a Romney victory or have no opinion.

• Younger Voters Less Engaged. Younger voters’ engagement in politics, which rose sharply in 2008, has declined. Among voters younger than 50, 60% say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, down from 71% in 2008. There has been no change among voters 50 and older.

• Black Engagement Remains High. Engagement among black voters, which also increased in 2008, remains high. About seven-in-ten black voters (71%) say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election and 54% are following campaign news very closely. Both measures are little changed from 2008.

• Ann Romney Not Well Known.  About half of voters (54%) have no opinion of Ann Romney. Three-in-ten (30%) view her favorably while 17% view her unfavorably.

The public, voters and non-voters alike, has a subdued reaction to the Republican Party’s midterm election victory. Four years ago, the response to the Democrats regaining full control of Congress was far more positive, as it was in 1994 when the GOP won a historic victory. Fewer people today say they are happy about the Republican victory, approve of the GOP’s plans for the future, and far fewer believe Republicans will be successful in getting their programs passed into law.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 4-7 among 1,255 adults, finds 48% saying they are happy that the Republican Party won control of the House while 34% are unhappy. Four years ago, 60% said they were happy the Democrats won full control of Congress, compared with just 24% who were unhappy. That mirrored the public’s reaction in December 1994 to the GOP winning control of Congress for the first time in 40 years (57% happy vs. 31% unhappy).

In the current survey, 52% of those who said they voted in the Nov. 2 election were happy with the outcome compared with 42% of non-voters. Still, more voters in 2006 – 60% – said they were happy with the Democrats’ victory.

The public has a mixed reaction to the Republican policies and plans for the future: 41% approve, while nearly as many (37%) disapprove. Approval is somewhat greater among voters (45%) than among non-voters (35%). But on balance, both the general public and voters express less positive views of the GOP’s policies than they did of the Democrats’ proposals after the 2006 election.

The public is skeptical that the GOP will be successful in getting its programs passed into law. About four-in-ten (43%) think they will be successful while 37% say they will be unsuccessful. Following the elections of 2006 and 1994, when the victorious parties gained majorities in both the House and Senate, far more people thought they would be successful in enacting their agenda (59% in 2006, 62% in 1994).

There is little optimism that, in the wake of the election, relations between the two parties will improve. Just 22% expect relations between Republicans and Democrats to get better in the coming year, 28% say they will get worse, while 48% say they will stay about the same as they are now. Two years ago, after the presidential election, 37% of voters expected partisan relations to improve and just 18% thought they would get worse.

Most Americans (55%) say that Republican leaders in Congress should work with Barack Obama, even if that disappoints some of their supporters. Even more (62%) want Obama to cooperate with GOP leaders, even if that disappoints some Democrats.

Independents want the two sides to work together – 57% say GOP leaders should cooperate with Obama while about as many (59%) say that the president should work with GOP leaders. But as many Democrats say Obama should stand up to Republican leaders (43%) as work with them (46%).

Republicans are even less interested in seeing their party’s congressional leaders work with Obama – and far fewer GOP voters want their party’s leaders to work with Obama than did so after the 2008 presidential election. Currently 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters want GOP leaders to stand up to Obama, up from 47% shortly after the presidential election two years ago.

On balance, more Americans say that Obama, rather than Republican congressional leaders, should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. Nearly half (49%) say President Obama should take the lead, compared with 30% who say GOP leaders. Following the 2006 election, opinion on this measure was nearly reversed – 29% said President George W. Bush should take the lead, while 51% said Democratic congressional leaders.

At the same time, however, the public says that Republicans will have a better approach than Obama on taxes, the budget deficit, and jobs and economic growth. On Social Security and health care, neither side’s approach is favored, while Obama holds a modest advantage on foreign policy.

Cut Government But…

Americans express more conservative views about the role of government than they did just two years ago. However, when it comes to the major policy decisions that will arise in coming months, the public is closely divided.

Nearly as many approve (43%) as disapprove (47%) of the new health care law, and opinions are split over what Congress should do about the legislation. Four-in-ten (40%) favor repealing the health care law, but a larger proportion (52%) says that the law should be expanded (30%) or kept as it is (22%).

Opinion about what to do with the tax cuts passed during the Bush administration is divided three ways: 34% favor keeping all of the tax cuts; 30% say the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed while other reductions stay in place; and 28% say all the tax cuts should be repealed.

More people say that if they were setting priorities for the government, they would place a higher priority on reducing the federal budget deficit (50%) than on spending more to help the economy recover (43%). Those who cast a midterm ballot are more likely than nonvoters to see reducing the budget deficit as a higher priority (55% to 41%).

Substantial partisan gaps are evident in attitudes toward all of these issues. However, Republicans are more unified than Democrats in their views of what to do about health care legislation and tax cuts. Fully 77% of Republicans favor repealing the health care bill, while Democrats are split between expanding the measure (48%) and keeping it as it is (33%). And while 56% of Republicans favor keeping all the tax cuts, about as many Democrats favor repealing just the tax cuts for the wealthy (41%) as support getting rid of all the tax cuts (38%).

These attitudes reflect a continuing difference between Republicans and Democrats over the parties’ ideological directions. Over the past two years, Republican and Republican-leaning independents have consistently favored the GOP moving in a more conservative direction. Democrats and Democratic leaners have been just as consistent in their preference that their party move in a more moderate direction.

Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly favor the GOP moving in a more conservative direction: 71% express this view compared with just 40% of Republicans who have no opinion of the Tea Party or disagree with it.

Lower Grades for Campaign 2010

Voters express somewhat more negative views of the just-concluded campaign than they did of the 2006 midterm election. Fully 77% of voters say there was more negative campaigning or mud-slinging than in previous elections; 69% of voters expressed this view after the 2006 election.

Most voters (64%) say they learned enough to make an informed choice, but an even higher percentage said this in November 2006 (72%). And slightly fewer voters say there was more discussion of issues than did so after the 2006 election (35% today, 40% then).

Far more Republican voters (50%) say there was more discussion of issues than said that in 2006 (32%). By contrast, just 28% of Democratic voters said issues received m
ore attention – down from 50% who said this after the Democrats regained control of Congress in 2006.

Other Important Findings

• President Obama’s approval rating stands at 44%; an identical percentage disapproves of his job performance.

• Roughly a third of Democrats (34%) say they would like to see other Democratic candidates challenge Obama for the party’s nomination in 2012. In December 1994, far more Democrats (66%) supported a primary challenge to President Clinton.

• Just 16% of registered voters who attend religious services at least once a month say election information was available at their place of worship, down from 25% after the 2006 midterms.

• The GOP continues to be seen as a leaderless party: 51% say they don’t know who leads the Republican Party while 14% volunteer that no one does. More now see John Boehner as the leader of the GOP (10%) than did so in September (4%).

• There is no clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president: Sarah Palin (15%), Mike Huckabee (15%), and Mitt Romney (13%) all receive about the same levels of support.