The divide between young voters and older voters was as stark this year as it was in 2008. While Obama lost ground among voters younger than 30, he still won this age group by 24 points over Mitt Romney (60% to 36%). He also maintained a slimmer advantage among voters 30 to 44 (52% Obama, 45% Romney), while losing ground among those 45 to 64 and those 65 and older.

Among all voters 30 and older, Obama ran behind Mitt Romney (48% for Obama, 50% for Romney). Four years ago, Obama edged John McCain, 50% to 49%, among all 30+ voters.

In Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Obama also failed to win a majority of voters 30 and older. Yet he swept all four battleground states, in part because he won majorities of 60% or more among young voters.

Just as critically, young people made up as large a share of the overall electorate as they did in 2008, according to the national exit poll (19% in 2012, 18% in 2008). As recently as September, young voters were significantly less engaged in the campaign than they had been four years earlier. But their interest and engagement levels increased in the campaign’s final weeks. In the Pew Research Center’s final pre-election survey, as many registered voters under 30 said they were giving a lot of thought to the election as did so in the last weekend of the 2008 race.

Obama’s support among young voters declined among many of the same subgroups in the overall electorate in which he lost ground, particularly whites, men and independents. Obama won a majority of white non-Hispanics under 30 in 2008, but lost this group to Romney this year. In contrast, Obama won young African Americans and Hispanics by margins that were about as large as in 2008.

His losses among young voters since 2008 might have been even greater, but for the fact that the under 30s are by far the most racially and ethnically diverse age group. Just 58% are white non-Hispanic, compared with 76% of voters older than 30. A recent report by Pew Social and Demographic Trends found that minorities are on track to become a majority of the overall population by 2050.

Young voters continue to identify with the Democratic Party at relatively high levels and express more liberal attitudes on a range of issues – from gay marriage to the role of the federal government – than do older voters. In fact, voters under 30 were as likely to identify as Democrats in the 2012 exit poll as they had been in 2008 (44% now, 45% then). And they are the only age group in which a majority said that the government should do more to solve problems.

The last two presidential elections have had the widest gaps in voting between young and old of any election since 1972. This year, 60% of those under 30 backed Obama, compared with just 48% of those 30 and older; in 2008, the gap was 16 points (66% of under 30 supported Obama vs. 50% of those 30 and older).

This year’s 12-point difference between old and young this year was identical to the gap in 1972, when 46% of voters 18-29 supported George McGovern compared with just 34% of those 30 and older.

As Pew Research observed a year ago in The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election there were only modest generational differences in presidential vote preferences between 1976 and 2004.

Changes in the Youth Vote: 2008-2012

While Obama carried the youth vote overall, his support declined from 2008 among all young voters and among key subgroups. In particular, Obama lost ground among young whites, men and independents.

Only 44% of white voters under 30 backed Obama, while 51% voted for Romney. This is a substantial change compared with 2008, when Obama carried the young white vote by 10 points (54% to 44%). Far more young blacks and Hispanics backed Obama than Romney, and there was little fall off in his support among these groups from 2008.

Obama also lost support among young men. Overall, 53% of men under 30 supported Obama, down from 62% in 2008. Fully 66% of young women voted for Obama, similar to the 69% who voted for him in 2008.

However, Obama lost support among both white men and women. Overall, 41% of white men supported Obama while 54% supported Romney. In 2008, Obama won the vote among white men, 52% to 46%. While white women voted for Obama over McCain by a 56% to 42% margin four years ago, they were divided this year (48% voted for Obama, 49% for Romney).

Surprisingly, Obama’s vote also declined among young black men, by 14 points, while holding steady among young black women.

Youth Vote in Battleground States

In four of the key battleground states, Obama may not have won without the youth vote. In Florida, 47% of voters 30 and older backed Obama, while 52% supported Romney. But by winning younger voters by two-to-one (66% to 32%), Obama eked out a narrow one-point victory in the state (50% to 49%).

The pattern was similar in Ohio – 48% of voters 30 and older voted for Obama. When younger voters were included, his share of the vote increased to 50% (vs. 48% for Romney). And in both Pennsylvania and Virginia, the youth vote helped push Obama over 50%.

In 2008, Obama won half or more of the vote among those 30 and older in all four states. Thus, he probably would have been able to carry the vote, even with less support from young voters.

The Demography of Young Voters

The racial and ethnic composition of young voters has shifted dramatically over the last four presidential elections. Just 58% of voters age 18-29 identified as white non-Hispanics, while 18% were Hispanic, 17% were African American and 7% identified as mixed-race or some other race. The share of young voters who are white has declined 16 points since 2000, when 74% of voters under 30 identified as white and 26% identified as nonwhite (including 12% who were African American and 10% Hispanic).

This stands in sharp contrast to older voters. Fully 76% of voters 30 and older were white, down only six points from 2000. Only 24% of voters 30 and older were nonwhite, including 12% who identified as black and 8% as Hispanic.

Younger voters also are less likely to be religious than older voters. Only 36% of young voters attend religious services at least weekly, compared with 51% of older voters.

And when it comes to religious affiliation, 47% of young voters say they are Protestant or Christian, but just 16% are white evangelicals. By contrast, 62% of voters 65 and older are Protestant, including 28% who are white evangelicals.
Young voters are three times as likely as voters 65 and older to say they are not affiliated with a religious tradition; 19% of young voters say they have no religious affiliation, compared with just 6% of voters 65 and older.

Party Identification and Issues

Young voters were not only more likely to back Obama, but they are far more likely than older voters to identify as Democrats than their older counterparts. A plurality of voters younger than 30 (44%) consider themselves Democrats while far fewer identify as Republicans (26%) or independents (30%). Young voters are as Democratic as they were in 2008 when 45% identified as Democrats (26% as Republican and 29% as independent).

By comparison, Democrats had just a three-percentage point advantage in party identification among voters 30 and older. Among those voters, 37% identify as Democrats, 34% as Republicans and 25% as independents.

A third of young voters described their political views as liberal, while 41% said they were moderate and just 26% said they were conservative. Among voters 30 and older, 23% said their political views were liberal, 41% said their views were moderate and 37% described themselves as conservative.

Consistent with their strong vote for Obama and their Democratic Party affiliation, young voters also have more liberal views on a variety of issues. A majority (59%) said that the government should do more to solve problems, while 37% said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That is a somewhat narrower margin than in 2008 (69% vs. 27%), but they were still far more likely than older voters to say that the government should do more to solve problems.

Young voters also were far more approving of the 2010 health care law: 53% said it should be expanded (34%) or left as it is (19%). That compares with 42% of 30 and older who favored retaining the health care law or expanding it.

On social issues, 64% of voters younger than 30 said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 58% of voters 30 and older. And they are far more likely than older voters to support allowing gay marriage. Fully 66% of young voters favored their states legally recognizing gay marriage, compared with 45% of voters 30 and older (and just 37% of those 65 and older).

November 14, 2012

Postelection talk of “lessons learned” is ­often exaggerated and misleading, and so it is in 2012.

A week after President Obama won re-election, two themes are dominant. First, that Mr. Obama kept his job because key elements of his base—notably young people, African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans—turned out for him. Second, that the growing size of these voting blocs represents a decisive challenge for the Republican party.

Both points are true, but most observers are overstating the gravity of the GOP’s problem. In particular, they are paying too little attention to how weak a candidate Mitt Romney was, and how much that hurt Republican prospects.

Here is what the exit poll found. Mr. Romney’s personal image took a hard hit during the primary campaign and remained weak on election day. Just 47% of exit-poll respondents viewed him favorably, compared with 53% for Mr. Obama. Throughout the campaign, Mr. Romney’s favorable ratings were among the lowest recorded for a presidential candidate in the modern era. A persistent problem was doubt about his empathy with the average voter. By 53% to 43%, exit-poll respondents said that Mr. Obama was more in touch than Mr. Romney with people like themselves.

Mr. Romney was never fully embraced by Republicans themselves, which may have inhibited the expected strong Republican turnout. Pew’s election-weekend survey found Mr. Romney with fewer strong supporters (33%) than Mr. Obama (39%). Similarly, a much greater percentage of Obama supporters (80%) than Romney supporters (60%) told Pew that they were voting for their candidate rather than against his opponent.

Continue reading at WSJ.com

Overall, Obama benefited from relatively strong turnout – both nationally and in key battleground states – among young people and minorities. Obama won voters younger than 30 by a somewhat smaller margin than he did four years ago, but these voters made up about as large a share of the electorate as they did in 2008, according to national exit polls conducted by the National Election Pool. Moreover, African Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans backed Obama by huge margins.

Nationally, nonwhite voters made up 28% of all voters, up from 26% in 2008. Obama won 80% of these voters, the same as four years ago.

Obama’s support from nonwhites was a critical factor in battleground states, especially Ohio and Florida. In Ohio, blacks were 15% of the electorate, up from 11% in 2008. In Florida, Hispanics were 17% of the electorate, a slight increase from 14% in 2008. While minority compositional gains were not huge, they offset a strong tilt against Obama among white voters. Nationally, Romney won the white vote, 59% to 39%.

Owing to comparatively strong turnout from Obama’s base, the composition of the electorate in 2012 was strikingly similar to that of four years ago: Nationally, Democrats made up 38% of all voters, Republicans 32% and independents 24%. This enabled Obama to win re-election even though he lost the independent vote. Romney won independents by a 50% to 46% margin. Four years ago, Obama carried independents by 52% to 44%.

Evidence of the demographic transformation of the electorate is seen in the profiles of each candidate’s supporters: Fully 89% of Romney’s were white non-Hispanics, compared with just 56% of Obama’s supporters. Romney managed to better McCain’s showing among whites by four percentage points – and still lost the election.

Continued support from women was also an important factor that helped Obama stay above water in the swing states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio. He held or improved his 2008 margins among women in all three states, while losing support among men. Nationally, Obama won women voters by nearly as much he did in 2008.

Obama’s advantages among women, minorities and young people helped offset his continued weakness among white voters. Obama’s falloff in white support was broad-based, crossing many demographics – working class whites, college graduates and even women.

The economy was clearly the dominant issue of the election, but the extent to which voters held Obama accountable for their economic frustrations was limited. Nationally, 59% said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, but voters overall were divided over which candidate could do a better job on the issue: 48% said Obama, while 49% said Romney. However, by a 53% to 38% margin, voters blamed Bush, not Obama, for the economic problems the nation is facing.

Obama also was aided by nascent economic optimism. By a 39% to 30% margin, more said the national economy is getting better rather than getting worse, and given the very strong correlation between that opinion and vote choice, that cut in Obama’s favor.
When it comes to how people feel about their own financial situation, more said they are worse off today than four years ago than better off, and most of those who expressed that opinion supported Romney. Yet importantly, a plurality of voters (41%) said they are doing the about same today as four years ago. These voters backed Obama by a wide margin (58%-40%).

Voters’ views of Obama were similar to those of George W. Bush eight years ago. After falling below 50% in job approval for much of the year, he reached 53% approval on Election Day – the same as Bush’s in 2004.

The biggest national trend in Romney’s favor was the public’s distaste for more expansive government. More voters said government is doing too many things than said government should do more, by 51% to 43%. But a populist streak regarding the lack of fairness in the system cuts the opposite way. Most voters (55%) say the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy, compared with 39% who say it is fair to most Americans. And a majority thought that Romney’s policies would favor the rich, while a plurality thought Obama policies would favor the middle class.

Romney improved his personal image substantially over the course of the campaign, but in the end he still was not as viewed as favorably as Obama. The national exit polls found that 47% viewed Romney favorably, up substantially from a low of 29% of registered voters in March during the bruising GOP primary. However, on Election Day, 53% viewed Obama favorably.

In the final days before Tuesday’s election, most of the focus will be on those likely to cast votes. But a sizable minority of adults choose not to vote or are unable to vote. By their absence, they also will affect the outcome. Nonvoters are numerous; in 2008, they constituted about 43% of the voting age population.

Nonvoters favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a wide margin (59% to 24%). While most nonvoters (64%) have a favorable view of Obama, just half as many (32%) view Romney favorably.

By contrast, likely voters are evenly divided in Pew Research’s most recent national survey (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Nearly identical percentages of likely voters view Obama and Romney favorably (51% Obama, 52% Romney).

A plurality of nonvoters are independents (44%); 29% identify as Democrats and just 17% as Republicans. Likely voters include about the same percentages of Democrats (35%) as Republicans (34%); 27% of likely voters are independents.

About half of nonvoters (52%) either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; only 27% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. Likely voters’ leaned party identification is evenly divided: 47% identify with the Republican Party or lean toward the GOP, while the same percentage identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
However, just a quarter of nonvoters describe their political views as liberal; that is little different from the percentage of liberals among likely voters (20%). But nonvoters are far less likely than voters to describe their political views as conservative (28% vs. 44% of likely voters).

As might be expected, nonvoters express very little interest in politics or the election. A third of nonvoters say they are registered to vote. But they are far less likely than voters to give a lot of thought to the election and follow public affairs.

Demographic Differences Between Voters, Nonvoters

Nonvoters are younger, less educated and less affluent than are likely voters. More than a third (36%) of nonvoters are younger than 30, compared with just 13% of likely voters.

Just 13% of nonvoters are college graduates and about the same percentage (14%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more. Among likely voters, 38% are college graduates and a third (33%) have family incomes of $75,000 or more.

While most voters are married, most nonvoters are not. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of nonvoters are unmarried, compared with 40% of likely voters.

Nonvoters also are much more likely than voters to be Hispanic: 21% of nonvoters are Hispanic, which is three times the percentage of Hispanics among likely voters (7%). About six-in-ten (59%) nonvoters are white non-Hispanics. By contrast, white non-Hispanics make up about three quarters (74%) of likely voters.

Nonvoters and Voters on the Issues

Nonvoters express more liberal opinions than voters on a wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues. But the differences are far less pronounced on social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.

Far more nonvoters than voters favor activist government. About half of nonvoters (52%) say the government should do more to solve problems, while 40% say the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. The balance of opinion is reversed among likely voters: 56% say the government is doing too much, while 39% say the government should do more to solve problems.

By 46% to 31%, more nonvoters favor keeping the 2010 health care law in place than repealing the law; 23% do not express an opinion. Voters are more evenly divided, with 49% favoring the law’s repeal and 43% saying it should remain in place; just 8% do not express an opinion.

There are smaller differences in the opinions of voters and nonvoters on tax policy: 55% of nonvoters and 51% of likely voters say it would better for the economy to maintain current tax rates on income under $250,000 while raising taxes on income about that level. A third of nonvoters, and 42% of likely voters say it would better to lower tax rates for all Americans by 20%, while limiting some tax deductions.

On foreign policy, a clear majority of likely voters (56%) favor withdrawing U.S. forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible; 40% say they should remain until the situation there is stabilized. Support for an immediate withdrawal is even more widespread among nonvoters (67% favor).

Nonvoters also are less supportive of taking hard line against Iran’s nuclear program: 45% say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran, while 40% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran. Among likely voters, 62% favor taking a firm stand against Iran while just 31% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict.

On gay marriage and abortion, however, there are at most modest differences between nonvoters and likely voters. And there are no significant differences in opinions about the impact of immigrants on the country.

Identical percentages of nonvoters and likely voters favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally (49% each). Somewhat fewer nonvoters oppose gay marriage (36% vs. 42% of voters ), while more have no opinion (15% vs. 9%).

Nonvoters have the same views on abortion as likely voters: 54% of nonvoters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 39% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Among likely voters, 55% favor legal abortion in all or most cases; 38% say it should be mostly illegal.

Like voters, nonvoters express mixed opinions about the impact of the growing population of immigrants on the U.S.: 27% say it has been a change for the better, 34% a change for the worse, while 34% say it has not made much difference.

Not only are young registered voters less engaged, but fewer young people are registered to vote. In all Pew Research Center polling conducted over the course of 2012, only half (50%) of adults under 30 say they are absolutely certain that they are registered. This compares with 61% in 2008 and 57% in 2004. Registration rates typically rise over the course of election years, but for youth voter registration to reach 2008 levels the figures will have to shift decidedly over the coming month.

Both of these trends are disadvantages for Barack Obama, who continues to hold a wide lead among young voters. In the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, registered voters under 30 favored Obama over Romney by 59% to 33%, and that margin has held relatively steady over the course of the year.

But so far, any potential damage to Obama has been mitigated by three factors. First, the decline in youth engagement is not limited to Obama supporters. In fact, the dropoff is at least as steep among young voters who intend to vote Republican. Second, other segments of Obama’s electoral base – notably African Americans – remain highly engaged in the election. Third, declining engagement in a key Republican subgroup – moderate Republicans – at least partially offsets falling interest among the young.

Youth Engagement Slips

While most measures of voter engagement remain fairly high in 2012, overall interest and commitment to voting is down slightly when compared with the highly-charged 2008 election campaign. The share of registered voters who score high (three out of four) on a scale of four questions about interest in the campaign and intention to vote has slipped from 86% to 80% overall.

This slippage is particularly steep among voters under 30; just 61% are highly engaged in the 2012 campaign, down from 75% at this point four years ago. By contrast, fully 86% of voters 65 and older are highly engaged, which is unchanged from four years ago. Interest also is down among voters 30-to-49 (eight points) and those 50-to-64 (six points), although both groups remain more engaged in the election than those under 30.

The drop in youth engagement does not have a political tilt to it; the slippage is equally evident among both Obama and Romney supporters. Among voters under 40 who support Obama, 58% have given a lot of thought to the election this year, down from 70% among young Obama supporters four years ago.

But the trend among young Republican voters is almost identical. Just 59% of young voters who support Romney have given a lot of thought to the election, down from 75% among young McCain supporters in 2008. (For this analysis, all voters under age 40 are analyzed because there are too few 18-to-29- year-old Romney supporters to evaluate separately.)

The decline in engagement among voters age 40-to-64 also has come among voters in both parties. Among Obama supporters in this age group, there has been a 12-point decline in the percentage giving a lot of thought to the election; among Romney supporters 40-to-64, there has been an eight-point decline since 2008. Engagement among voters 65 and older is similar to 2008; older Obama and Romney supporters are as engaged as Obama and McCain supporters were in 2008.

The pattern is nearly identical in levels of campaign news interest. Fewer voters younger than 40 and 40-to-64 say they are very closely following campaign news than in 2008 and the declines are comparable among Obama supporters and Romney supporters. Voters 65 and older are as interested in campaign news as they were four years ago; there are no differences between Obama and Romney voters.

This pattern is consistent with the lack of an engagement gap between Republicans and Democrats overall. Since the summer, Democratic interest in the campaign has surged, closing an engagement deficit that was apparent earlier in the year.

While younger voters make up a larger share of the Democratic base – and their enthusiasm decline could affect Democratic turnout levels in November – there is a comparable decline in GOP engagement as well, particularly in the moderate wing of the party. Just 73% of moderate and liberal Republicans, a group that accounts for 27% of Republican voters overall, are highly engaged in the current survey, down from 89% four years ago.

Drop in Voter Registration, Especially Among Young

Voter registration rates have declined since 2008, especially among young people. In interviews conducted over the course of 2012 so far, 72% of adults 18 and older say they are absolutely certain they are registered to vote. This is lower than in 2008, when 79% were registered to vote and in 2004 (76% registered to vote).

In polls conducted from January to September, just half of those under 30 are certain they are registered to vote – 11 points lower than in 2008 – and the lowest number in the past 16 years of Pew Research Center polling. There also has been a nine-point decline in voter registration among those 30-to-49. Voter registration has slipped four points among those 50-to-64 but is virtually unchanged among those 65 and older.

More people still may register to vote in the five weeks remaining before the election. Voter registration typically increases in the second half of election years, especially among young people. In 2008, the share of young adults who said they were certain they were registered jumped six percentage points from the first half to the second half of the year.

Yet even when these seasonal factors are taken into account, young adults are starting this year with the lowest registration rate of the last five presidential elections. In polling conducted over the first six months of 2012, half (50%) of adults younger than 30 say they are certain that they are registered. This compares to a 57% registration rate in the first half of 2008, which rose to 64% over the latter part of that year.

Age Gap in Voting Preferences

Throughout this election cycle, Obama has consistently held a substantial lead over Romney among young voters. In polls conducted since April, he holds a 59% to 35% advantage among registered voters under 30. That is somewhat narrower than the 66% to 32% margin he had over McCain in 2008.

Obama has lost support from 2008 among young men and young white voters. Obama holds a 53% to 40% advantage over Romney among men under 30 but that is narrower than the 27-point margin he had over McCain in 2008. There has been little change among young women voters; 65% back Obama while just 31% support Romney. There is now a 12-point gap in Obama’s support between young men and young women.

Obama has lost substantial ground among young white voters. He had a 10-point advantage among this group in 2008, but they are now divided (47% support Obama, 47% support Romney). Young non-whites still back Obama by a wide margin (81% to 14%).

Obama’s support is equally strong among younger and older members of the 18-29 age group. He leads Romney by 60% to 35% among voters ages 18-24 and by 57%-36% among those in the 25-29 age group. Among voters 18-21, who were not eligible to vote in 2008, Obama holds a 61% to 36% margin. Similarly, Obama receives about the same level of support from young voters who have attended college and those that have not.

In the Pew Research Center’s most recent national survey, conducted March 7-11, Obama led Mitt Romney by 20 points (58% to 38%) among women voters. It marked the second consecutive month that Obama held such a wide advantage over Romney among women (59% to 38% in February). In both February and March, Obama ran about even with Romney among men.

In the March survey, Obama’s overall lead over Rick Santorum was 18 points. Fully 61% of women voters said they would favor Obama in a matchup with Santorum, compared with just 35% who backed the former Pennsylvania senator.

The gender gap – the difference in support for a candidate among women and men – is about as wide today as it was at this point in the campaign four years ago. In March 2008, both Democratic candidates, Obama and Hillary Clinton, had narrower overall leads over John McCain than Obama has today. Obama ran about even with McCain among men, but he led by 14 points among women (53% to 39%). Clinton trailed among men, yet also led by 14 points among women.

In November 2008, Obama defeated McCain by eight points (53% to 45%). While Obama essentially broke even with McCain among men (49% Obama, 48% McCain), he held a commanding 56% to 43% over McCain among women.

The gender gap in 2008 – the seven-point difference between women and men in support for the Democratic candidate – was comparable to the gap in most elections since 1980. Even when Democratic candidates failed to garner a majority of the women’s vote – as in 1980, 1984 and 1988 – they still drew more support from women than from men.

The election of 1992 was unusual because of Ross Perot’s popular third-party campaign. Still, the gender gap was significant: Women backed Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush, 45% to 37%, with 17% supporting Perot. Clinton had a narrower lead among men (41% Clinton, 38% Bush); 21% of men voted for Perot, according to exit polls conducted after the 1992 election.

Obama Holds Larger Lead among Younger Women

In the March survey, Obama led Romney by 31 points among women younger than 50 (64% to 33%), and had a sizable advantage among women 50 to 64 (58% to 36%). But Romney ran about even with Obama among women 65 and older (48% Obama, 49% Romney).

Among men, by contrast, there were no significant differences by age: Obama and Romney ran about even in all three age categories.

Obama led Romney among women in all three main income categories, including those with family incomes of $75,000 or more. Romney held a slight edge among men with incomes of $75,000 or more.

Notably, Romney’s lead among white men (55% to 40%) was on par with McCain’s lead among this group in 2008 (57% to 41%). White women were evenly divided in the March survey (48% Romney, 48% Obama). In 2008, McCain led Obama by seven points (53% to 46%) among white women.

Gap in Party ID

Just as women have been more likely to vote Democratic in presidential elections, a higher percentage also identifies with or leans toward the Democratic Party or lean Democratic.

In Pew Research Center polls this year, 52% of women identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, compared with 43% of men. That is in line with the gender gap in party identification dating back to 1990. In 2008, 56% of women and 46% of men identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic.

Aside from a gender gap, there also is a marriage gap in party identification. In 2011, fully 62% of single women voters identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party. Just 31% of single women voters identified with or leaned toward the GOP.

Among married women voters, nearly as many identified with the GOP, or leaned Republican (45%), as identified with or leaned toward the Democratic Party (48%). Among men voters, a marriage gap also was evident but it was much narrower.

Gender and Key Issues

There are several clusters of issues on which men and women divide, including views of government and its role. Yet gender differences do not follow a predictable pattern. On social issues, for instance, there is a wide gender gap in views of gay marriage, but not abortion.

For more than a decade, women have been more likely than men to favor an active role for government. And recent surveys show that higher percentages of women than men say that government should do more for the poor, children and the elderly.

In the October 2011 survey, nearly half of the public (48%) favored a smaller government that provides fewer services, while 41% preferred a bigger government with more services. While 45% of women preferred a bigger government with more services, fewer men agreed (36%). That was in line with the gender differences on this issue dating back to at least 2000.

The October survey also found higher percentages of women than men saying that the government does not do enough for older people (by 11 points), children (10 points) and the poor (nine points). By contrast, there were no differences in views of how much the government does for wealthy people. Nearly identical percentages (65% of women, 64% of men) said it does too much for the wealthy.

There also were significant gaps on two issues involving the role of government in a survey on public priorities for the president and Congress in 2012 – helping the poor and needy, and education. In a January survey, 72% of women cited education as a top priority, compared with 57% of men. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) women rated helping the poor and needy as a top priority, compared with 46% of men.

There is not a significant gender gap on the general question of whether government regulation of business is necessary, or usually does more harm than good. However, women are far more likely than men to say that government regulations should be strengthened in a number of areas.

In February, 61% of women, but only 45% of men, said regulations on food production and packaging should be strengthened. Women also were more likely to favor stronger regulations on workplace safety and health (by 13 points) and in environmental protection (by nine points). (For more, see “Auto Bailout Now Backed, Stimulus Divisive,” Feb. 23, 2012.)

Views of Social Issues

One of the recent political controversies in the social issues arena involved a proposed federal rule that would require employers, including most religiously affiliated institutions, to cover birth control as part of their health care benefits.

In February, the public was divided when asked if a waiver should be given to religiously-affiliated organizations that objected to the use of contraceptives or whether they should be required to provide coverage for birth control like other employers.  (See “Public Divided over Birth Control Insurance Mandate,” Feb. 14, 2012.)

The gender differences on this issue were relatively modest. Roughly half of women (48%) who heard about the issue said that religiously affiliated organizations that object to contraceptives should be required to cover them; 42% said they should be given an exemption from the rule. Men, by 54% to 40%, favored the exemption.

Notably, women younger than 50 were far less likely than older women to have heard about the issue. Among younger women who had heard about the issue, 53% said religious institutions should be required to cover contraceptives, while 40% said they should be given an exemption. Women 50 and older were evenly divided (45% required, 43% be given an exemption).

There are virtually no gender differences in opinions about abortion. Last November, about half of women (52%) and men (50%) said abortion should be legal in all or most cases; 42% of women and 44% of men said it should be illegal in all or most cases. These views have changed little in Pew Research Center surveys going back more than a decade.

However, there is a sizable difference in women’s and men’s attitudes toward gay marriage. In an October 2011 survey, 53% of women favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, while 38% were opposed. More men opposed than supported same-sex marriage (51% to 40%).

The gender gap was evident among young and old alike: 60% of women younger than 50 favored gay marriage, compared with 45% of men. Among those 50 and older, 44% of women and 32% of men favored gay marriage.

Health Care: No Gap, Little Change

One issue on which there is virtually no gender gap is the 2010 health care law. In March, 47% of men and 46% of women approved of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in 201o.

There also is little difference in opinion about the health care law’s so-called individual mandate. Nearly six-in ten men (57%) and (54%) of women disapprove of the law’s requirement that all individuals be covered by health insurance or pay a penalty.

In April 2010, more men disapproved (47%) than approved (36%) of the bill. Women were more evenly divided (44% approved, 41% disapproved). (For more about polling on the health care law, see “Public Remains Split on Health Care Bill, Opposed to Mandate,” March 26, 2012.)

Environment and Energy

Somewhat more women (75%) than men (67%) say the country should do whatever it takes to protect the environment. Just 20% of women and 28% of men say the country has gone too far in environmental protection.

There are larger gender differences on some environmental policies – notably the idea of promoting increased use of nuclear power. In the March survey, 57% of men favored increasing the use of nuclear power, compared with just 31% of women. A larger majority of men (70%) than women (60%) also supported allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling as a way to address the nation’s energy

But on other energy policies – requiring better vehicle fuel efficiency, giving tax breaks for oil and gas exploration, increased federal funding for mass transit, or increased funding for alternative energy research – there were virtually no differences in the opinions of men and women.

In addition, men and women share similar views about global warming: In a survey last November, 65% of women and 60% of men said that there is solid evidence that the earth’s average temperature has been rising over the past few decades.

Foreign Policy and National Security

Women are somewhat less supportive of possible military action in Iran than are men. In February, 62% of men and 54% of women said it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons even if it means taking military action. Only about three-in-ten men (29%) and women (30%) said it was more important to avoid a military conflict, with Iran, if that means the country develops nuclear weapons.

When it comes to the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, majorities of men (56%) and women (59%) favor removing the troops as soon as possible. That survey, conducted in early March before reports that a U.S. soldier allegedly murdered 17 Afghan civilians, also found that men and women have similar views about the way things are going in Afghanistan.

More generally, in a survey conducted in March 2011, a higher percentage of men than women said that the best way to ensure peace is through military strength (35% vs. 27%). About half of men (53%) and 62% of women said peace is best ensured through diplomacy.

In the last four national elections, generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006.

The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. Millennial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a matchup against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate who has run the strongest against Obama in many polls. By contrast, Silent generation voters are solidly behind Romney.

In between the youngest and the oldest voters are the Baby Boom generation and Generation X. Both groups are less supportive of Obama than they were in 2008 and are now on the fence with respect to a second term for the president.

One of the largest factors driving the current generation gap is the arrival of diverse and Democratic-oriented Millennials. Shaped by the politics and conditions of the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush presidencies, this group holds liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues.

In contrast, the Silent generation – whose members reached adulthood between the late 1940s and early 1960s and now make up over 80% of Americans age 65 and older – has held relatively conservative views on social issues and the role of government for most of their lives. Their growing unease, and even anger, about the direction of the country in recent years has moved them further toward the GOP, largely erasing the Democratic Party’s advantage in affiliation.

While the political divides between young and old are deep, there are potential fissures at both ends of the age spectrum. Millennials continue to support Obama at much higher levels than older generations. But Obama’s job ratings have fallen steeply among this group, as well as among older generations, since early 2009. Perhaps more ominously for Obama, Millennials are much less engaged in politics than they were at this stage in the 2008 campaign.

In contrast, Silents – particularly those who affiliate with or lean to the Republican Party – are far more engaged in the presidential campaign than they were at this point in the contest four years ago. While Silents support Romney over Obama by a wide margin, they express highly unfavorable views of both the GOP and the Democratic Party.

Silents prefer the Republican Party on most issues, with Social Security a notable exception. Silents are about evenly divided over whether the Democrats or the Republicans can better handle Social Security. If debate over Social Security and Medicare comes to the forefront, it raises potentially significant cross pressures for Silent generation voters, who rank Social Security among the top issues affecting their 2012 vote.

Growing racial and ethnic diversity, which is concentrated among younger generations, has benefited Democrats. Race and ethnicity are strongly associated with views about government, and in no small part account for some of the greater liberalism of the younger age groups and greater conservatism of older groups.

The polling finds that older generations – Boomers and especially Silents – do not fully embrace diversity. Fewer in these groups see the increasing populations of Latinos and Asians, as well as more racial intermarriage, as changes for the better. For many Silents in particular, Obama himself may represent an unwelcome indicator of the way the face of America has changed. Feelings of “unease” with Obama, along with higher levels of anger, are the emotions that most differentiate the attitudes of Silents from those of the youngest generation.

The nation’s ongoing economic difficulties have affected all generations. But Boomers and Gen Xers are far more likely than either Silents or Millennials to have little or no confidence they will have enough money to finance their retirement. And two-thirds of Boomers ages 50 to 61 who are still working expect to delay retirement because of current economic conditions.

These are the principal findings from two major national surveys exploring generational differences in political attitudes conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (Sept. 22-Oct. 4) and the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project (Sept. 1-15). Together, these surveys interviewed 4,413 adults. They have been supplemented with data from other polling over the course of the year and analyses of census data by Pew Social & Demographic Trends.

The study provides a detailed look at the current generational dynamics of American politics. Why are Silent generation voters so angry? How have the political leanings of Baby Boomers evolved? Is the Reagan-era Generation X moving closer to the Democratic column? Will Millennials be as engaged and enthused about Obama as they were in 2008? The answers lie in understanding the broad political, social and economic changes of the past decades and how they have shaped the political leanings of these generations over time.

A Closer Look at … Older Americans

The vast majority of Americans who are 65 and older are members of the Silent generation (ages 66 to 83). They came of age in the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy years. Silents favored the Democrats at times during the 1990s, but in recent elections have strongly supported the Republicans. While they aligned more with the Democrats in the 1990s, they have become much more Republican in recent years. The Silent generation “replaced” the Greatest generation, who were more reliable Democratic voters when they constituted the bulk of the senior vote.

Silents increasingly call themselves conservative and they hold the most consistently conservative views about government, social issues and America’s place in the world. Unlike other generations that in recent years have become more supportive of smaller government, they have held conservative views about government for years.

Today, an overwhelming majority of Silents are either angry or frustrated with government. They are the generation that is most strongly disapproving of Barack Obama, for whom a majority did not vote. Silents also are the most politically energized generation, as they demonstrated in the 2010 midterms.

More often than the younger generations, Silents take the American exceptionalist view that the United States is the greatest nation in the world. But fewer older people than young people think that “America’s best days are ahead of us.”

The political discontent of the Silent generation is not economically based. A greater proportion of Silents than younger people say they are financially satisfied, and Silents are less likely to say they often do not have enough money to make ends meet.

Race is a factor in their political attitudes. Silents are the whitest of the generations and are the least accepting of the new face of America. Compared with younger generations, relatively few Silents see racial intermarriage and the growing population of immigrants as changes for the better.

As was the case in 2008, racial attitudes are associated with views of Obama and voting intentions. And while there is racial intolerance in all generations, it is more prevalent among older than younger age groups.

While Silent generation voters say they are solidly behind Obama’s Republican challengers, there are some signs of potential opportunity for the Democrats. Silents cite Social Security as often as they name jobs as their top voting issue. And while seniors tend to favor the Republican Party on most issues, they are as likely to favor the Democrats as Republicans on Social Security.

Young People

Millennials, who are 18 to 30, have voted more Democratic than older voters in the last four national elections. They came of age in the Clinton and Bush eras, and hold liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues, as well as America’s approach to foreign policy.

Just as members of the Silent generation are long-term backers of smaller government, Millennials, at least so far, hold “baked in” support for a more activist government.

Millennials have come of age professing an allegiance to the Democratic Party and profoundly little identification with the GOP. Today, half of Millennials (50%) think of themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents while just 36% affiliate with or lean toward the GOP.

Although they back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in matchups against both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, just 49% approve of his job performance, down 24 points since February 2009.

Millennials are a racially and ethnically diverse generation. Only 59% of Millennials are white non-Hispanic. They are well acquainted with changing face of America and overwhelmingly think these changes are good for the country.

The racial gap also helps explain the greater liberalism of Millennials when compared with older generations. The racial factor, however, mutes rather than explains away the ideological and partisan gaps between Millennials and older voters. For example, while 57% of all Millennials favor a bigger government with more services, just 44% of white Millennials do. But only about a quarter of whites in older generations (27%) support an activist government.

Similarly, while 61% of all Millennials back Obama in a matchup against Romney, only 49% of white Millennials do. But this compares to 37% of older whites who back the president.

For more on Millennials, see Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change, Feb. 24, 2010.

Middle-Aged Americans

Baby Boomers (ages 47 to 65) are the largest generation. They came of age under presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan.
Boomers had very little allegiance to the GOP during the 1960s and 70s, but were increasingly drawn to the Republican Party starting in the 1980s. Since then, they have tilted to the Democratic Party.

Historically, there has been an age gap within the Baby Boom generation. Older Boomers, who cast their first ballots in the Nixon elections of 1968 and 1972, have voted more Democratic than have younger Boomers who came of age under Ford, Carter and Reagan. In 2008, for example, Obama performed better among older Boomers (currently 56 to 65) than younger Boomers (47 to 55).

Boomers supported Republican candidates in 2010. Currently, they are almost as disillusioned with Obama as are Silents, yet are divided in a matchup between Obama and Romney.

In recent years, more Boomers have come to call themselves conservatives. A majority of Boomers now favors a smaller government that provides fewer services. When they were in their 20s and 3os, Boomers were more supportive of big government. Today, almost as many Boomers as Silents say they are angry with government.

Boomers’ current attitudes bear little imprint from coming of age in an era of great social change. On most social issues, their opinions generally fall between the Silents and the younger age cohorts. And many Boomers express reservations about the changing face of America.

Like younger generations, many Boomers say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation and their anxieties about retirement have increased. In a survey conducted last year, a majority of Boomers (54%) said they were in worse shape financially than they were before the recession. Today, 38% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years.

Like other generations, Boomers oppose cutting entitlement benefits in order to reduce the budget deficit. They are also part of a multi-generational majority that supports reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors with higher incomes. However, unlike Silents, Boomers oppose raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare.

Generation X, ages 31 to 46, is the in-between generation. They represent the dividing line on many issues between young and old, but they are not as Democratic and liberal as the younger Millennial generation.

Gen Xers mostly came of age politically in the Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton years. In the 1990s, they divided their loyalties between the parties. In 2000, they split their votes between George W. Bush and Al Gore; they narrowly supported Bush in 2004 and favored Obama by clear margin in 2008.

Gen Xers are less supportive of larger government than they once were. And along with other generations, their views of Obama have become more negative. Gen Xers supported GOP candidates by a small margin in 2010. Currently, as many Gen Xers favor Romney as Obama.

On a range of social issues Gen Xers take a more liberal position than do older voters. Gen Xers are more likely than both Boomers and Silents to favor gay marriage and marijuana legalization, and Gen Xers are far more comfortable with the social diversity of 21st century America.

As with Millennials and Boomers, jobs are the number one voting issue for Gen Xers. And they are increasingly anxious over their financial futures. Fully 46% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years – the highest percentage in any generation.

Entitlements: Agreement on Principles, Not Policies

The poll finds a fair amount generational agreement on entitlement issues. Majorities across generations say that the federal government does too little for older people. And there is broad agreement that it is more important to maintain current retirement benefits than to reduce the budget deficit, though that view is more widely shared among older than younger generations.

But wide generation gaps exist with respect to a number of proposed reforms to the retirement programs. Silents are lukewarm toward allowing younger workers to invest their Social Security taxes in private accounts and using their Medicare benefits to purchase private insurance. Millennials, in particular, enthusiastically embrace these proposed changes.

Moreover, Silents are more supportive than are younger generations of gradually raising the retirement age for receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits. Roughly half of Silents favor raising the retirement age for these programs; no more than four-in-ten in younger generations agree.

Generational Voting in Red and Blue

One way to look at the political leanings of generations is to sort people by the political environment when they became politically engaged. For example, not so long ago, voters 65 and older were predominantly members of the Greatest generation, most of whom came of age during FDR’s presidency and were fairly reliable supporters of Democrats even into their later years.

As recently as 2004, members of the Greatest generation supported John Kerry by a greater margin than did all voters in that election.

As the Greatest generation has mostly passed from the scene, members of the Silent generation – most of whom came of age politically during the Truman and Eisenhower presidencies – have come to make up an increasing share of voters 65 and older. They have long voted less Democratic than the Greatest generation; in both 2008 and 2010, both Truman- and Eisenhower-era Silents voted more Republican than average.

The Baby Boom is a long generation, spanning many presidencies. The oldest, who turned 18 when LBJ was president, have mostly voted with the national electorate in recent years, though they voted more Republican than average in 2008. Those Boomers who came of age when Nixon was president retained a Democratic leaning, although they have voted with the overall electorate since 2006. The youngest Boomers, who mostly came of age in the Ford and Carter years, have been one of the most reliable Republican voting groups.

Internal divisions within Generation X are even more notable. The older portion of Generation X who came of age during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush presidencies, have voted more Republican than the electorate. In contrast, younger Xers, who became active politically during the Clinton administration, have mostly voted more Democratic than average. Millennials largely came of age during George W. Bush’s presidency and have consistently voted more Democratic by large margins.

Best President in Your Lifetime?

When asked which president has done the best job in their lifetime, more respondents name Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan than any other presidents. Sizeable numbers in each of the four generational groups, including majorities of Millennials and Gen Xers, cite Clinton as either their first or second choice as the best president. Reagan matches Clinton in mentions among Baby Boomers and members of the Silent generation.

Despite the fact that many of them were quite young during Clinton’s years in office, nearly half (48%) of Millennials say Bill Clinton did the best job of any president in their lifetime. Another 12% cite him as second best. Fewer Millennials (37%) cite Obama as best or second-best. Relatively few (22%) say that George W. Bush was a favorite.

A majority of Xers also named Clinton as best (38%) or second-best (18%), while 43% cite Reagan (34% as best, 9% as second-best). Just 23% of Xers say that Obama is the best or second best president of their lifetimes; 18% cite George H. W. Bush and 14% cite George W. Bush.

Baby Boomers divide their loyalties about evenly between Clinton and Reagan, with 45% citing Reagan in either first (33%) or second (12%) place. About as many name Clinton as the best president (27%) or second-best (15%). About a quarter of Boomers (26%) cite John F. Kennedy.

Only among the Silent generation do presidents in office before Kennedy receive a significant number of mentions. But even among this older group, Clinton and Reagan are essentially tied for the top positions. Reagan is cited by 36% and Clinton by 35% as best or second-best. Kennedy is mentioned by 29%, Dwight D. Eisenhower by 17%, and Harry S Truman and Franklin D. Roosevelt are named by 11% and 12%, respectively.

The Republican Party’s prospects for the midterm elections look much better than they did four years ago at this time, while the Democrats’ look much worse. Voter preferences for the upcoming congressional elections remain closely divided (45% support the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic, while 44% favor the Republican or lean Republican). In polling conducted in August-September 2006, the Democrats held an 11-point advantage (50% to 39%).

Major shifts in sentiment among key voting blocs account for the improved GOP standing in 2010. The Republicans now enjoy advantages among typically loyal voting blocs that wavered in 2006, notably men and whites.

The GOP is also now running better than four years ago among three key swing groups in recent elections – independents, white Catholics and seniors.

The Republicans also continue to enjoy an engagement advantage over the Democrats, which at least in part reflects the greater disposition to vote among these voting blocs that have swung their way. In contrast, groups such as young people and African Americans, who continue to support the Democrats by comparable margins as in 2006, are relatively unenthused about voting.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 21-August 5 among 3,003 adults, including 2,431 registered voters, finds that the basic contours of opinion about the midterm election have changed little since the start of the year. In four previous surveys in 2010, preferences among registered voters were also evenly divided. Also as in past surveys, economic issues continue to be most important for voters. At the other end of the spectrum, same-sex marriage ranks last in importance among 13 issues tested in the new poll.

The Vote for Congress

Republicans and Democrats express near-unanimous support for candidates of their own party (93% each), while independents are divided (42% for Republican candidates, vs. 35% for Democratic candidates).

More than eight-in-ten Republican-leaning independents (85%) favor the GOP candidate in their district; 78% of Democratic-leaning independents (%) support the Democratic candidate.

Men are 10 points more likely than women to favor Republican candidates (49% vs. 39%). About half of white voters (51%) favor Republican candidates, while blacks overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (84%). Hispanic voters favor Democrats by a two-to-one margin (60% to 30%).

About a quarter of all voters (27%) say they generally agree with the Tea Party political movement; and the vast majority of this group (84%) says they will vote Republican this fall. Conversely, those who disagree with the Tea Party (22% of voters) overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates (84%). About half of voters (51%) have never heard of the Tea Party or have no opinion of it; these voters favor Democratic candidates 0ver GOP candidates by a modest margin (47% to 38%)

Wide Partisan Gap in Engagement Persists

In the current survey, 44% of voters say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the November election. This is comparable to the level of interest expressed by voters in September 2006 (45%), though it is quite a bit higher than in September 2002, when just 36% said they had given a lot of thought to the upcoming elections. Currently, interest is on par with levels later in the 1994 and 1998 midterm campaigns (44% and 42%, respectively, in early October of those two years).

The partisan enthusiasm gap seen in surveys earlier this year persists. (For a detailed analysis of the GOP’s enthusiasm advantage, see “Voting Intentions Even, Turnout Indicators Favor GOP,” July 1, 2010).

Republicans and conservatives continue express far greater interest in the election than do Democrats and liberals. More than half of Republicans (55%) say they have given a lot of thought to the election, compared with 37% of Democrats. Among Republican-leaning independents, 62% have given a lot of thought to the election; Democratic-leaning independents are much less engaged (29%). Among Republicans, conservatives are far more engaged than those who describe themselves as moderates or liberals (62% vs. 41%).

Republican voters also are more likely than Democrats to say they are absolutely certain to vote in November. More than three-quarters of Republicans (77%) say they are certain to vote, compared with 69% of Democrats. There is a somewhat larger gap between independents who lean Republican (76% certain to vote) and those who lean Democratic (59%). As with thought given to the election, conservative Republicans are the most engaged, with fully 81% saying they are certain to vote.

Taking two indicators of engagement together – thought given to the election and intention to vote – it is clear that Republicans and Republican leaning groups are far more energized at this point in the campaign than are Democrats and Democratic groups. Overall, 39% of registered voters are highly engaged: They have given a lot of thought to the campaign and say they definitely will vote. Among voters who identify as Republicans, 50% fall into to this high engagement category. Perhaps equally important, 57% of independents who say they lean to the GOP are rated as highly engaged.

By comparison, Democrats are significantly less engaged. Just 33% of Democrats and 23% of Democratic-leaning independents fall into the high engagement category. Similarly, relatively few among two key demographic groups that supported Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008, African Americans and young people, rate high on campaign engagement (24% for African Americans, 23% for voters ages 18 to 29).

It is important to keep in mind that interest in the election is not the only factor that motivates voting. Many people vote as a habit, which may be why the overall percentage saying they are “certain to vote” – either absolutely or fairly certain – is more similar between the parties. This survey did not ask about previous voting behavior, which is a usual part of pollsters’ indexes of likely voting.

Much as the Democratic Party attempted to make the 2006 elections a referendum on Republican control of the government, Republican candidates are stressing national issues this year, and Republican voters are more likely than others to say national issues are important. Asked which factor among four would be most important in their vote, a small plurality (36%) of all voters picked national issues, followed by 29% for local or state issues, 22% for candidate character and experience, and just 5% who said the candidate’s political party would be most important. The percentage choosing national issues is higher than in September 2006, when 29% chose this option, and is far larger than in off-year elections from 1994 through 2002.

Among voters who support the GOP candidate in their district, 45% say national issues are most important, compared with 30% among those who say they intend to vote Democratic.

Issue Priorities and the Vote for Congress

The economy and jobs are the dominant issues of 2010. Nine-in-ten voters cite the economy as very important and about the same percentage (88%) cites jobs. The economy and jobs are viewed as very important by comparably large percentages of voters who intend to vote Republican and Democratic.

By cont
rast, same-sex marriage ranks at the bottom of the list for both Republican and Democratic voters. Same-sex marriage was recently in the news because of a federal district court judge’s ruling that the California proposition banning gay marriage is unconstitutional.

Other issues at the top of the list include health care (at 78% very important), terrorism (71%), the federal budget deficit (69%) and taxes (68%). Mid-tier issues include the banking and financial system (65%), energy (62%), Afghanistan (59%), immigration (58%) and the environment (57%). Rounding out the list are abortion (43% very important) and same-sex marriage (32%).

There are sizable partisan differences in views of the importance of some issues. While about eight-in-ten voters who support Republican candidates see the budget deficit (81%) and taxes (80%) as very important, smaller majorities of Democratic voters say the same (60% budget deficit, 58% taxes). And immigration is rated a very important by substantially more Republican voters (70%) than Democratic voters (47%).

Seven-in-ten voters who intend to vote Democratic say the environment will be very important, compared with fewer than half (42%) of Republican voters. The financial system also is seen as very important by somewhat more Democratic than Republican voters (71% vs. 62%).

Obama Approval Stable

President Obama’s job approval rating stands at 47%, a number that has changed very little all year; 41% currently disapprove of his performance in office.

The stability in Obama’s ratings for the past several months is evident not just among the public overall, but among most subgroups in the population. His core supporters continue to give him high ratings, including Democrats (79% approval) and African Americans (89%). He gets nearly unanimous approval from liberal Democrats (90%).

Even among groups with more mixed opinions, there has been little evidence of a trend for the past several months. Independents remain divided (42% approve, 43% disapprove), while a plurality of whites continue to disapprove (49%, vs. 38% who approve).

Obama in a Word

Good is the word that people use most frequently to describe Obama. In a separate survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Aug.5-8 among 1,002 adults, 49 say that good is the word that first comes to mind in describing Obama. Other words used frequently are trying (mentioned by 36 respondents) and disappointing (32).

The word good is used more frequently to describe Obama than in previous surveys. In a survey in January, in which 740 respondents were asked to give a one-word description of Obama, 18 mentioned good; in April 2009 (asked of a sample of 742), 29 used that word. Mentions of trying also have increased – from 12 in April 2009 to 21 in January and 36 in the current survey.

Some negative terms also are being used more frequently, including disappointing, incompetent and idiot: 32 now describe Obama as disappointing (six did so in January); 22 use the word incompetent (11 in January); and 17 describe Obama as an idiot (five in January).