The divide between young voters and older voters was as stark this year as it was in 2008. While Obama lost ground among voters younger than 30, he still won this age group by 24 points over Mitt Romney (60% to 36%). He also maintained a slimmer advantage among voters 30 to 44 (52% Obama, 45% Romney), while losing ground among those 45 to 64 and those 65 and older.

Among all voters 30 and older, Obama ran behind Mitt Romney (48% for Obama, 50% for Romney). Four years ago, Obama edged John McCain, 50% to 49%, among all 30+ voters.

In Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania, Obama also failed to win a majority of voters 30 and older. Yet he swept all four battleground states, in part because he won majorities of 60% or more among young voters.

Just as critically, young people made up as large a share of the overall electorate as they did in 2008, according to the national exit poll (19% in 2012, 18% in 2008). As recently as September, young voters were significantly less engaged in the campaign than they had been four years earlier. But their interest and engagement levels increased in the campaign’s final weeks. In the Pew Research Center’s final pre-election survey, as many registered voters under 30 said they were giving a lot of thought to the election as did so in the last weekend of the 2008 race.

Obama’s support among young voters declined among many of the same subgroups in the overall electorate in which he lost ground, particularly whites, men and independents. Obama won a majority of white non-Hispanics under 30 in 2008, but lost this group to Romney this year. In contrast, Obama won young African Americans and Hispanics by margins that were about as large as in 2008.

His losses among young voters since 2008 might have been even greater, but for the fact that the under 30s are by far the most racially and ethnically diverse age group. Just 58% are white non-Hispanic, compared with 76% of voters older than 30. A recent report by Pew Social and Demographic Trends found that minorities are on track to become a majority of the overall population by 2050.

Young voters continue to identify with the Democratic Party at relatively high levels and express more liberal attitudes on a range of issues – from gay marriage to the role of the federal government – than do older voters. In fact, voters under 30 were as likely to identify as Democrats in the 2012 exit poll as they had been in 2008 (44% now, 45% then). And they are the only age group in which a majority said that the government should do more to solve problems.

The last two presidential elections have had the widest gaps in voting between young and old of any election since 1972. This year, 60% of those under 30 backed Obama, compared with just 48% of those 30 and older; in 2008, the gap was 16 points (66% of under 30 supported Obama vs. 50% of those 30 and older).

This year’s 12-point difference between old and young this year was identical to the gap in 1972, when 46% of voters 18-29 supported George McGovern compared with just 34% of those 30 and older.

As Pew Research observed a year ago in The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election there were only modest generational differences in presidential vote preferences between 1976 and 2004.

Changes in the Youth Vote: 2008-2012

While Obama carried the youth vote overall, his support declined from 2008 among all young voters and among key subgroups. In particular, Obama lost ground among young whites, men and independents.

Only 44% of white voters under 30 backed Obama, while 51% voted for Romney. This is a substantial change compared with 2008, when Obama carried the young white vote by 10 points (54% to 44%). Far more young blacks and Hispanics backed Obama than Romney, and there was little fall off in his support among these groups from 2008.

Obama also lost support among young men. Overall, 53% of men under 30 supported Obama, down from 62% in 2008. Fully 66% of young women voted for Obama, similar to the 69% who voted for him in 2008.

However, Obama lost support among both white men and women. Overall, 41% of white men supported Obama while 54% supported Romney. In 2008, Obama won the vote among white men, 52% to 46%. While white women voted for Obama over McCain by a 56% to 42% margin four years ago, they were divided this year (48% voted for Obama, 49% for Romney).

Surprisingly, Obama’s vote also declined among young black men, by 14 points, while holding steady among young black women.

Youth Vote in Battleground States

In four of the key battleground states, Obama may not have won without the youth vote. In Florida, 47% of voters 30 and older backed Obama, while 52% supported Romney. But by winning younger voters by two-to-one (66% to 32%), Obama eked out a narrow one-point victory in the state (50% to 49%).

The pattern was similar in Ohio – 48% of voters 30 and older voted for Obama. When younger voters were included, his share of the vote increased to 50% (vs. 48% for Romney). And in both Pennsylvania and Virginia, the youth vote helped push Obama over 50%.

In 2008, Obama won half or more of the vote among those 30 and older in all four states. Thus, he probably would have been able to carry the vote, even with less support from young voters.

The Demography of Young Voters

The racial and ethnic composition of young voters has shifted dramatically over the last four presidential elections. Just 58% of voters age 18-29 identified as white non-Hispanics, while 18% were Hispanic, 17% were African American and 7% identified as mixed-race or some other race. The share of young voters who are white has declined 16 points since 2000, when 74% of voters under 30 identified as white and 26% identified as nonwhite (including 12% who were African American and 10% Hispanic).

This stands in sharp contrast to older voters. Fully 76% of voters 30 and older were white, down only six points from 2000. Only 24% of voters 30 and older were nonwhite, including 12% who identified as black and 8% as Hispanic.

Younger voters also are less likely to be religious than older voters. Only 36% of young voters attend religious services at least weekly, compared with 51% of older voters.

And when it comes to religious affiliation, 47% of young voters say they are Protestant or Christian, but just 16% are white evangelicals. By contrast, 62% of voters 65 and older are Protestant, including 28% who are white evangelicals.
Young voters are three times as likely as voters 65 and older to say they are not affiliated with a religious tradition; 19% of young voters say they have no religious affiliation, compared with just 6% of voters 65 and older.

Party Identification and Issues

Young voters were not only more likely to back Obama, but they are far more likely than older voters to identify as Democrats than their older counterparts. A plurality of voters younger than 30 (44%) consider themselves Democrats while far fewer identify as Republicans (26%) or independents (30%). Young voters are as Democratic as they were in 2008 when 45% identified as Democrats (26% as Republican and 29% as independent).

By comparison, Democrats had just a three-percentage point advantage in party identification among voters 30 and older. Among those voters, 37% identify as Democrats, 34% as Republicans and 25% as independents.

A third of young voters described their political views as liberal, while 41% said they were moderate and just 26% said they were conservative. Among voters 30 and older, 23% said their political views were liberal, 41% said their views were moderate and 37% described themselves as conservative.

Consistent with their strong vote for Obama and their Democratic Party affiliation, young voters also have more liberal views on a variety of issues. A majority (59%) said that the government should do more to solve problems, while 37% said the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

That is a somewhat narrower margin than in 2008 (69% vs. 27%), but they were still far more likely than older voters to say that the government should do more to solve problems.

Young voters also were far more approving of the 2010 health care law: 53% said it should be expanded (34%) or left as it is (19%). That compares with 42% of 30 and older who favored retaining the health care law or expanding it.

On social issues, 64% of voters younger than 30 said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared with 58% of voters 30 and older. And they are far more likely than older voters to support allowing gay marriage. Fully 66% of young voters favored their states legally recognizing gay marriage, compared with 45% of voters 30 and older (and just 37% of those 65 and older).

Not only are young registered voters less engaged, but fewer young people are registered to vote. In all Pew Research Center polling conducted over the course of 2012, only half (50%) of adults under 30 say they are absolutely certain that they are registered. This compares with 61% in 2008 and 57% in 2004. Registration rates typically rise over the course of election years, but for youth voter registration to reach 2008 levels the figures will have to shift decidedly over the coming month.

Both of these trends are disadvantages for Barack Obama, who continues to hold a wide lead among young voters. In the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, registered voters under 30 favored Obama over Romney by 59% to 33%, and that margin has held relatively steady over the course of the year.

But so far, any potential damage to Obama has been mitigated by three factors. First, the decline in youth engagement is not limited to Obama supporters. In fact, the dropoff is at least as steep among young voters who intend to vote Republican. Second, other segments of Obama’s electoral base – notably African Americans – remain highly engaged in the election. Third, declining engagement in a key Republican subgroup – moderate Republicans – at least partially offsets falling interest among the young.

Youth Engagement Slips

While most measures of voter engagement remain fairly high in 2012, overall interest and commitment to voting is down slightly when compared with the highly-charged 2008 election campaign. The share of registered voters who score high (three out of four) on a scale of four questions about interest in the campaign and intention to vote has slipped from 86% to 80% overall.

This slippage is particularly steep among voters under 30; just 61% are highly engaged in the 2012 campaign, down from 75% at this point four years ago. By contrast, fully 86% of voters 65 and older are highly engaged, which is unchanged from four years ago. Interest also is down among voters 30-to-49 (eight points) and those 50-to-64 (six points), although both groups remain more engaged in the election than those under 30.

The drop in youth engagement does not have a political tilt to it; the slippage is equally evident among both Obama and Romney supporters. Among voters under 40 who support Obama, 58% have given a lot of thought to the election this year, down from 70% among young Obama supporters four years ago.

But the trend among young Republican voters is almost identical. Just 59% of young voters who support Romney have given a lot of thought to the election, down from 75% among young McCain supporters in 2008. (For this analysis, all voters under age 40 are analyzed because there are too few 18-to-29- year-old Romney supporters to evaluate separately.)

The decline in engagement among voters age 40-to-64 also has come among voters in both parties. Among Obama supporters in this age group, there has been a 12-point decline in the percentage giving a lot of thought to the election; among Romney supporters 40-to-64, there has been an eight-point decline since 2008. Engagement among voters 65 and older is similar to 2008; older Obama and Romney supporters are as engaged as Obama and McCain supporters were in 2008.

The pattern is nearly identical in levels of campaign news interest. Fewer voters younger than 40 and 40-to-64 say they are very closely following campaign news than in 2008 and the declines are comparable among Obama supporters and Romney supporters. Voters 65 and older are as interested in campaign news as they were four years ago; there are no differences between Obama and Romney voters.

This pattern is consistent with the lack of an engagement gap between Republicans and Democrats overall. Since the summer, Democratic interest in the campaign has surged, closing an engagement deficit that was apparent earlier in the year.

While younger voters make up a larger share of the Democratic base – and their enthusiasm decline could affect Democratic turnout levels in November – there is a comparable decline in GOP engagement as well, particularly in the moderate wing of the party. Just 73% of moderate and liberal Republicans, a group that accounts for 27% of Republican voters overall, are highly engaged in the current survey, down from 89% four years ago.

Drop in Voter Registration, Especially Among Young

Voter registration rates have declined since 2008, especially among young people. In interviews conducted over the course of 2012 so far, 72% of adults 18 and older say they are absolutely certain they are registered to vote. This is lower than in 2008, when 79% were registered to vote and in 2004 (76% registered to vote).

In polls conducted from January to September, just half of those under 30 are certain they are registered to vote – 11 points lower than in 2008 – and the lowest number in the past 16 years of Pew Research Center polling. There also has been a nine-point decline in voter registration among those 30-to-49. Voter registration has slipped four points among those 50-to-64 but is virtually unchanged among those 65 and older.

More people still may register to vote in the five weeks remaining before the election. Voter registration typically increases in the second half of election years, especially among young people. In 2008, the share of young adults who said they were certain they were registered jumped six percentage points from the first half to the second half of the year.

Yet even when these seasonal factors are taken into account, young adults are starting this year with the lowest registration rate of the last five presidential elections. In polling conducted over the first six months of 2012, half (50%) of adults younger than 30 say they are certain that they are registered. This compares to a 57% registration rate in the first half of 2008, which rose to 64% over the latter part of that year.

Age Gap in Voting Preferences

Throughout this election cycle, Obama has consistently held a substantial lead over Romney among young voters. In polls conducted since April, he holds a 59% to 35% advantage among registered voters under 30. That is somewhat narrower than the 66% to 32% margin he had over McCain in 2008.

Obama has lost support from 2008 among young men and young white voters. Obama holds a 53% to 40% advantage over Romney among men under 30 but that is narrower than the 27-point margin he had over McCain in 2008. There has been little change among young women voters; 65% back Obama while just 31% support Romney. There is now a 12-point gap in Obama’s support between young men and young women.

Obama has lost substantial ground among young white voters. He had a 10-point advantage among this group in 2008, but they are now divided (47% support Obama, 47% support Romney). Young non-whites still back Obama by a wide margin (81% to 14%).

Obama’s support is equally strong among younger and older members of the 18-29 age group. He leads Romney by 60% to 35% among voters ages 18-24 and by 57%-36% among those in the 25-29 age group. Among voters 18-21, who were not eligible to vote in 2008, Obama holds a 61% to 36% margin. Similarly, Obama receives about the same level of support from young voters who have attended college and those that have not.

Read full analysis at Pewresearch.org

This is part of a Pew Research Center series of reports exploring the behaviors, values and opinions of the teens and twenty-somethings that make up the Millennial Generation.

A new generation has come of age, shaped by an unprecedented revolution in technology and dramatic events both at home and abroad. They are Generation Next, the cohort of young adults who have grown up with personal computers, cell phones and the internet and are now taking their place in a world where the only constant is rapid change.

In reassuring ways, the generation that came of age in the shadow of Sept. 11 shares the characteristics of other generations of young adults. They are generally happy with their lives and optimistic about their futures. Moreover, Gen Nexters feel that educational and job opportunities are better for them today than for the previous generation. At the same time, many of their attitudes and priorities reflect a limited set of life experiences. Marriage, children and an established career remain in the future for most of those in Generation Next.

More than two-thirds see their generation as unique and distinct, yet not all self-evaluations are positive. A majority says that “getting rich” is the main goal of most people in their age group, and large majorities believe that casual sex, binge drinking, illegal drug use and violence are more prevalent among young people today than was the case 20 years ago.

In their political outlook, they are the most tolerant of any generation on social issues such as immigration, race and homosexuality. They are also much more likely to identify with the Democratic Party than was the preceding generation of young people, which could reshape politics in the years ahead. Yet the evidence is mixed as to whether the current generation of young Americans will be any more engaged in the nation’s civic life than were young people in the past, potentially blunting their political impact.

This report takes stock of this new generation. It explores their outlook, their lifestyle and their politics. Because the boundaries that separate generations are indistinct, the definition of Generation Next ­ and other generational groups mentioned in this report ­ are necessarily approximate. For analysis purposes, Generation Next includes those Americans between the ages of 18 and 25 years old.

Meet Generation Next:

• They use technology and the internet to connect with people in new and distinctive ways. Text messaging, instant messaging and email keep them in constant contact with friends. About half say they sent or received a text message over the phone in the past day, approximately double the proportion of those ages 26-40.
• They are the “Look at Me” generation. Social networking sites like Facebook, MySpace and MyYearbook allow individuals to post a personal profile complete with photos and descriptions of interests and hobbies. A majority of Gen Nexters have used one of these social networking sites, and more than four-in-ten have created a personal profile.
• Their embrace of new technology has made them uniquely aware of its advantages and disadvantages. They are more likely than older adults to say these cyber-tools make it easier for them to make new friends and help them to stay close to old friends and family. But more than eight-in-ten also acknowledge that these tools “make people lazier.”
• About half of Gen Nexters say the growing number of immigrants to the U.S. strengthens the country ­ more than any generation. And they also lead the way in their support for gay marriage and acceptance of interracial dating.
• Beyond these social issues, their views defy easy categorization. For example, Generation Next is less critical of government regulation of business but also less critical of business itself. And they are the most likely of any generation to support privatization of the Social Security system.
• They maintain close contact with parents and family. Roughly eight-in-ten say they talked to their parents in the past day. Nearly three-in-four see their parents at least once a week, and half say they see their parents daily. One reason: money. About three-quarters of Gen Nexters say their parents have helped them financially in the past year.
• Their parents may not always be pleased by what they see on those visits home: About half of Gen Nexters say they have either gotten a tattoo, dyed their hair an untraditional color, or had a body piercing in a place other than their ear lobe. The most popular are tattoos, which decorate the bodies of more than a third of these young adults.
• One-in-five members of Generation Next say they have no religious affiliation or are atheist or agnostic, nearly double the proportion of young people who said that in the late 1980s. And just 4% of Gen Nexters say people in their generation view becoming more spiritual as their most important goal in life.
• They are somewhat more interested in keeping up with politics and national affairs than were young people a generation ago. Still, only a third say they follow what’s going on in government and public affairs “most of the time.”
• In Pew surveys in 2006, nearly half of young people (48%) identified more with the Democratic Party, while just 35% affiliated more with the GOP. This makes Generation Next the least Republican generation.
• Voter turnout among young people increased significantly between 2000 and 2004, interrupting a decades-long decline in turnout among the young. Nonetheless, most members of Generation Next feel removed from the political process. Only about four-in-ten agree with the statement: “It’s my duty as a citizen to always vote.”
• They are significantly less cynical about government and political leaders than are other Americans or the previous generation of young people. A majority of Americans agree with the statement: “When something is run by the government, it is usually inefficient and wasteful,” but most Generation Nexters reject this idea.
• Their heroes are close and familiar. When asked to name someone they admire, they are twice as likely as older Americans to name a family member, teacher, or mentor. Moreover, roughly twice as many young people say they most admire an entertainer rather than a political leader.
• They are more comfortable with globalization and new ways of doing work. They are the most likely of any age group to say that automation, the outsourcing of jobs, and the growing number of immigrants have helped and not hurt American workers.
• Asked about the life goals of those in their age group, most Gen Nexters say their generation’s top goals are fortune and fame. Roughly eight-in-ten say people in their generation think getting rich is either the most important, or second most important, goal in their lives. About half say that becoming famous also is valued highly by fellow Gen Nexters.

This report is drawn from a broad array of Pew Research Center polling data. The main survey was conducted Sept. 6-Oct. 2, 2006 among 1,501 adults ­ including 579 people ages 18-25. In addition, the report includes extensive generational analysis of Pew Research Center surveys dating back to 1987.

Much of the analysis deals with comparisons among the four existing adult generations. For purposes of this report, Generation Next is made up of 18-25 year-olds (born between 1981 and 1988). Generation X was born between 1966 and 1980 and ranges in age from 26-40. The Baby Boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, ranges in age from 41-60. Finally, those over age 60 (born before 1946) are called the Seniors. These generational breaks are somewhat arbitrary but are roughly comparable to those used by other scholars and researchers.

The report is divided into four main sections: (1) Outlook and World View, (2) Technology and Lifestyle, (3) Politics and Policy, and (4) Values and Social Issues.

In September polls conducted by the Pew Research Center, 57% of those under age 30 say they are giving a lot of thought to the upcoming election. That compares with just 41% of young people who said they were thinking a lot about the election at this stage four years ago, and 44% in 1996. Older people, those age 30 and older, continue to express more interest in the election ­ more than seven-in-ten in each older age group say they are giving a great deal of thought to the election.

There also has been an across-the-board increase in interest in election news compared with four years ago, with the percentage of young people following this news very closely nearly tripling (from 10% to 27%). Even so, significantly fewer Americans under age 30 than older people track campaign news very closely.

The percentage of young people who say they are registered to vote also has increased significantly since 2000 ­ from 47% to 58%. The number who are registered is at the 1992 level (60%). And the number of young registered voters who say they plan to vote in November has reached 85%, up from 67% four years ago.

Youth Vote Fluctuates

Over the past month, young voters have displayed significantly more volatility in their candidate preference than most other groups in the population. In Pew’s most recent poll, President Bush leads John Kerry by a margin of 48% to 42% among registered voters 18-29. Just a week earlier, Kerry led by 53% to 35% among this group. And two polls earlier in September found the same pattern of shifting support. In fact, young voters have moved in the same direction as the overall trends in the polls, but their swings have been more extreme than the rest of population. In 2000, Gore and Bush ran about even among young people (Gore 48%, Bush 46%), according to exit polls by the Voter News Service.

Interestingly, more young voters than older voters express a candidate preference ­ just 4% of those under 30 voiced no preference in Pew polls conducted in September, compared with higher percentages in older age groups. Yet young voters, once having expressed a preference, also are far more likely than others to say they may change their mind before the election. Roughly a quarter of voters age 18-29 (24%) say they might shift their support before Election Day, the highest percentage of any age group.

In that regard, a relatively large proportion of young voters (42%) say the upcoming presidential debates will influence their voting decision. In older age groups, where far more voters say their minds are already made up, fewer than three-in-ten say the debates will matter in their voting decisions.

Young Log on for Election News

Since the 2000 campaign, the Internet has become a more important source of election news for all Americans, but young people continue to go online for election news at higher rates than do older Americans.

Nearly three-in-ten of those age 18-29 say they get most of their election news online, up from 22% in November 2000. That compares with 21% of those age 30-49, and smaller percentages of older people, who get most of their election news from the Internet.

President Clinton faces a potentially wide generation gap on his proposal to “fix Social Security first.” Older Americans embrace the idea, but younger people are far more interested in spending any budget surplus on programs that benefit their families today.

Fully 82% of those age 50 and older say making Social Security financially sound should be the No. 1 priority for Clinton and Congress this year. Younger Americans place education first, according to two new nationwide surveys taken by the Pew Research Center in association with Americans Discuss Social Security.

When asked how they would use any budget surplus, fully two-thirds of the public is prepared to spend the money on domestic programs rather than use it for tax cuts or debt reduction. But the spenders divide into two camps: one-third of Americans say the money should be spent to fix Social Security and Medicare (32%) and one-third say the money should be spent on other domestic programs like health care, education and the environment (33%).

Again, the generational differences are stark. A plurality of those age 50 and older would fix Social Security (46%) compared to just a quarter of those under 50 (25%). Those under 50 would spend the money on today’s domestic programs (42%) compared to 16% of older Americans who would do so.

Reflecting these different priorities, Americans also split along generational lines on the role they expect Social Security to play in their own lives. Among working Americans 55 or older, half say Social Security will provide for most of their living expenses when they retire. But barely one-in-ten (12%) workers under 55 feel the same way. Most younger Americans instead are banking on personal savings or a company pension.

At the same time, public support for both Social Security and Medicare remains high across all age groups. Fully 64% said the Social Security program is “very important” to them personally and 57% described the Medicare program as “very important”. While Social Security and Medicare are most important to older people and retirees, nearly eight-in-ten Americans in every age group say both Social Security and Medicare are “very” or “somewhat” important to them personally.

Not Banking on Social Security

Few working Americans expect Social Security will be their main source of income when they retire. Two-thirds of those 35 and older say they have already begun saving money to live on when they retire.

Younger Americans are particularly doubtful that they will benefit from Social Security. Among those under the age of 35, just 9% believe Social Security will be a main source of retirement income, and more than half (61%) say the program will help them get by “only a little” or “not at all” when they retire.

These attitudes are balanced by the concerns of other segments of the population that are counting on Social Security. Substantially more lower-income Americans of all ages expect to rely on Social Security. One-in-four of those who earn under $30,000 expect that Social Security will cover most of their living expenses, for example, compared to just 7% of those earning over $40,000.

Half of those nearing retirement age — 55 and older — also say they expect most of their income will come from the Social Security program and many express concern about their financial situation in the future. Nearly half (49%) of those between the ages of 55 and 64 expect their standard of living will go down when they retire. Similarly, 41% of the 55 to 64 age-group believe they will only have enough money to meet basic living expenses when they retire, compared to just 30% of those under 55. Among Americans who have already retired, 30% say their standard of living has gone down, while 55% say it has stayed the same.

Policy Makers Out of Touch

Americans of all generations, however, think political leaders are out of touch with their views of Social Security. Nearly three-in-four Americans (71%) say the nation’s policy makers don’t understand how people feel about Social Security. Almost as many (57%) believe political leaders only care “a little” or “not at all” how people feel about the program. Similarly, majorities say policy makers don’t understand or care how people feel about Medicare.

Politicians do not bear the full brunt of public frustration on the Social Security issue, however — the media also gets its share of criticism. Two-thirds of Americans (65%) give news organizations a rating of “fair” or “poor” for their reporting about Social Security. In addition, majorities say there has been too little coverage of the issue (51%) and describe this coverage as “mostly confusing” (52%).

News Interest Highs and Low

The public’s attention to news about Social Security tends to parallel the intensity of the debate in Washington over the program. News interest peaked in January and February of 1997, when Social Security and Medicare proposals were a main focus of discussion in Congress. With as many as 29% following the Social Security debate “very closely” in early 1997, it ranked as the most closely followed domestic policy story of the year. More recently, news interest in Social Security has fallen off. In November, for example, just 9% said were following the Social Security debate “in Washington and around the country” very closely.

Americans are divided in terms of how well they understand the details of the Social Security system. About half (52%) say their knowledge of what the Social Security program does is only “fair” or “poor”, while 46% say their understanding is “excellent” or “good”. Notably, beneficiaries of Social Security — those who are currently retired — pay substantially more attention to news about Social Security and have a much better understanding of the program.