Americans anticipate many perils in the next century, but none of them, no matter how grave, can dim the public’s positive view of the future. Despite consensus forecasts of natural disasters, environmental calamities and international terrorism, Americans are near unanimous in their confidence that life will get better for themselves, their families and the country as a whole.

An overwhelming 81% of adults are steadfast in their optimism about what the 21st century holds for them and their families, and 70% believe the country as a whole will do well. Eight-in-ten Americans describe themselves as hopeful about the year 2000, and they anticipate the new millennium will usher in the triumph of science and technology. Majorities predict cancer most likely will be cured, AIDS will be eradicated and ordinary people will travel in space.

At the same time, nearly two-thirds of the public anticipates a serious terrorist attack on the United States within the next 50 years, and more than half say an epidemic worse than AIDS is at least likely. Vast numbers of Americans also view as probable a major earthquake in California, global warming and a severe energy crisis by the middle of the 21st century.

Very sizable minorities expect even more dire things to come, although less than 20% of the public describes themselves as worried about the coming of the year 2000. More than one-third of Americans say the U.S. will most likely be involved in a nuclear war within the next 50 years, and nearly as many believe an asteroid will hit the Earth within that time.

Analysis of the survey finds, however, that these specific ideas of what the future might hold — many of them grim — have relatively little impact upon the general feeling of optimism about it. Even among those who are certain nuclear war is imminent or fully expect the Earth to be struck by an asteroid, majorities remain optimistic about the future. Conversely, general optimism is not necessarily tied to anticipation of specific improvements and progress. Those expecting a cure for cancer or Jesus Christ’s return to Earth are no more hopeful about their lives for the next 50 years than are those who do not anticipate these things.

These are the principal findings of the Pew Research Center survey of 1,546 adults on the millennium. The survey was conducted April 6 – May 6, 1999 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. This report details America’s hopes and fears for the future. A previous report, released July 4, 1999, looked back at the past one hundred years. It is available on our website www.people-press.org/mill1rpt.htm.

One theme that connects many of the public’s fears for the future is globalism: Problems that cannot be controlled by science or by our borders appear most threatening. Environmental problems and international terrorists stand atop the list of threats to the future, with nearly two-thirds of the public citing each as a major threat. The majority also believes the growing world population is likely to cause shortages of food and resources.

This pattern of global fears extends to American views of the U.S. economy and the country’s role in the world. Although two-thirds (64%) of the public believes the U.S. economy will grow stronger in the next 50 years, half (52%) expect that the average American will be hurt by the global economy. Half of the country does not expect the U.S. to remain the world’s lone superpower (53%); two-thirds believe that China will emerge as our global rival (67%); 41% foresee a nuclear war; 37% think the U.S. will be involved in such a war.

But for all the global worries Americans see looming, public faith is just as strong that science and technology will expand their horizons. Americans overwhelmingly say science and technology, medical advances and education will play major roles is creating a better future. Three-quarters think a manned spacecraft will explore Mars, and nearly six-in-ten go even farther, predicting ordinary people will travel in space before the middle of the 21st century. A 58% majority believe Americans will live much longer in the next century, and 78% of the public anticipates environmental progress.

Social and economic progress are also anticipated, but with smaller margins and more caveats than for scientific achievements. For example, despite faith that the domestic economy will be stronger, 69% say that the gap between rich and poor will widen. Similarly, the share predicting an increase in crime has fallen 9 percentage points over the past three years, but still 59% say the crime rate will climb in the next 50 years. Two-thirds of Americans expect the education system to improve by mid-century; but 60% see less affordable health care and 52% anticipate less honesty from political leaders.

The public is more consistently optimistic about racial matters. Two-thirds (68%) think that race relations will improve, and 76% believe an African American will be elected president by the middle of the 21st century, which is almost as many as think that a woman will be elected. African Americans are notably less optimistic than are whites about the future of race relations and about the prospects of one of their own occupying the Oval Office.

Few Americans, however, say they wish to live another 100 years to see how it will all turn out. This view is shared by optimists and pessimists. Age and religion matter more than outlook. Younger people and those with no formal religious affiliation express more interest in staying alive to greet the 22nd century than do older and more religious people.

Americans see the 20th century as a time of great economic, social and technological progress. As individuals, as families, as members of various social and demographic groups, nearly two-thirds of Americans say they have improved their circumstances since the 1950s, and even larger numbers see economic and social gains for many segments of society over the past half-century.

Science and technology are widely seen as the engines of the century’s economic prosperity. Americans point to advancements in these fields as principal reasons for improvements in their own family’s well-being, and they celebrate the inventions and conveniences of the 20th century. A host of innovations ranging from the automobile to birth control pills to the Internet are lauded for making life today better.

When considering America’s collective achievements, overwhelming majorities credit the Constitution, free elections and the free enterprise system for the nation’s successes of the past 100 years. It is the system — along with the culture and character of the American people — that fosters our progress, not mere good luck or even deeply-held religious beliefs.

Yet beneath this picture of economic well-being and national accomplishment, there is a parallel story not nearly so triumphant. Most Americans do not see life in the United States overall as any better at the close of the century than it was in the 1950s. A substantial minority — three-in-ten people — say it’s even worse. Further muddying the picture, today’s teenagers are one of two groups that the public sees as worse off than their peers of 50 years ago.

Misgivings about America today are focused on the moral climate, with people from all walks of life looking skeptically on the ways in which the country has changed both culturally and spiritually. While the civil rights movement and women in the workplace are uniformly endorsed, many other social trends, including the growth of the suburbs and rock music, get a mixed review, and still others are lamented, including the greater acceptance of divorce and legalized abortion.

The distinction that the public makes between material achievements and societal shortcomings is apparent throughout the Pew Research Center survey examining the 20th century. For instance, new technologies — the space program, computers, medical breakthroughs — are seen as America’s greatest achievements of the past 100 years, while moral decline is prominent on the list of failures.

These are the principal findings of a Pew Research Center nationwide survey of 1,546 adults conducted April 6 through May 6, 1999 — a period punctuated by the shootings at a high school in Littleton, Colorado. While few differences were observed between the results before and after the tragedy, those that were noted underscore the central finding that the good life today is being tarnished by moral decay. After the Littleton incident, a significant drop was observed in the way the public views life in America overall, and an increase was seen in the number of people who say that life for teenagers is worse today than it was in the 1950s. A summary of the survey findings follows, with detailed analysis beginning on page 5.

Families Doing Better

One of the most striking findings in the survey is the gap between how Americans positively view their own lives compared to their more muted perspective on life in America overall. While 63% say their own lives are better than that of their families in 1950, only 44% say that life in the U.S. improved during that period. To the public, the success of the sum is less than that of its constituent parts.

Among those who rate their own lives as better than their family members in the 1950s, the economy, modern conveniences and technology are most often cited as the reasons why. Consistent with this rationale, the view that life for one’s family has improved is especially prevalent among the wealthy and those with at least some college training. Americans with annual incomes of less than $20,000 form the only significant demographic group in which a majority does not see their own lives as better than those of their predecessors.

Among those who rate life in the U.S. as worse, the moral climate is to blame. Overwhelmingly, people in this group mention factors such as crime, family breakdown, lack of respect, and drugs as the causes for the decline. Even the minority who rate their own lives as worse blame moral breakdown for their problems as often as they do economic woes.

A majority of the public overall sees teenagers, who are potentially most vulnerable to these problems, as worse off now than their counterparts were in previous generations. This evaluation of the quality of life for teens is particularly noteworthy because among 15 major social groups tested, today’s adolescents and farmers are the only groups that Americans see as worse off today.

By large margins, the public sees the lives of almost every other group as improved since the 1950s. Women, the disabled, African Americans, Hispanics, gays and lesbians, senior citizens, and the working class are all seen as better off at the end of the century, with only small minorities saying any of these groups is worse off. Historically considered disadvantaged, many of these groups benefited from the social and economic changes of the latter part of the century and received some measure of government protection.

Successes as Old as the Constitution, as New as Technology

Despite today’s political cynicism, Americans are near unanimous in crediting the system for the country’s accomplishments. Indeed, more than eight-in-ten people say the Constitution, free elections and the free market are the reasons for the nation’s success. The country’s natural resources and its human resources — the cultural diversity and character of the American people — are also acknowledged as keys to U.S. success.

When Americans today think about the nation’s accomplishments during the 20th century, about how life has improved, and even about the government’s successes, technology is the answer. Nothing else is close — not winning the conflicts that defined America in this century (the World Wars or the Cold War), not the civil rights movement that recast society, not the Social Security program that lifted so many seniors out of poverty.

The space program is cited as the country’s single greatest achievement of the century, and inventions as old as the radio and as recent as the Internet are heartily endorsed as changes for the better. Just about the only scientific innovations not heralded by majorities of the public are nuclear energy and nuclear weapons.

While medical advances are cited by some as America’s greatest achievement, the public is relatively uneasy about many recent breakthroughs in pharmacology and biotechnology. Just slim pluralities endorse the advent of Prozac, Viagra and fertility drugs as changes for the better, and almost half (49%) of Americans see the cloning of sheep as a change for the worse.

The century’s various social trends get an even more mixed verdict. From a high of 84% calling the civil rights movement a positive change to lows of 21% saying the same of telemarketing and just 14% finding rap music a plus, attitudes about social trends vary widely. The same is true of significant personal finance changes: 69% say mutual funds are an improvement; just 22% say the wide use of credit cards is a change for the better in this country.

Collective Memories

Looking back over important events of the century, John F. Kennedy’s assassination is the single most powerful memory. Nine-in-ten Americans who are old enough to remember say they know exactly what they were doing when they heard the news of the 35th president’s murder. The only other events to come close are the attack on Pearl Harbor and those that occurred in the late 1990s.

Kennedy’s assassination also stands as the most chronologically distant memory that is shared by a majority of the public. Neil Armstrong’s 1969 walk on the moon is the only other event of the 1960s to hold a majority position in America’s collective memory today; Richard Nixon’s resignation in the 1970s does as well.

Many of the people and events that shaped the nation’s history in the 20th century — Franklin Roosevelt, World War II, the 1929 stock market crash — are remembered personally by very few Americans today. Instead, the country is united in its recollections of only recent and less historically significant events, such as the death of Princess Diana, the bombing of a federal office building in Oklahoma, and the space shuttle Challenger explosion.

These events, however, are central to our cultural identity today, and it is in cultural terms that Americans reflect on the various decades of the 20th century. With the exceptions of the Great Depression in the 1930s and World War II in the 1940s, Americans use cultural references to define the decades, coming up with words like roaring and flappers for the 1920s, happy and rock and roll for the 1950s, hippies and turmoil for the 1960s, disco and drugs for the 1970s, fun and greed for the 1980s, and high-tech and fast-paced for the 1990s.

The number of Americans going online to an information service or directly to the Internet has more than doubled in the past year, but most consumers are still feeling their way through cyberspace. Few see online activities as essential to them, and no single online feature, with the exception of E-Mail, is used with any regularity. Consumers have yet to begin purchasing goods and services online, and there is little indication that online news features are changing traditional news consumption patterns.

The broader home computer market continues to expand and appears to be maturing. The PC is a regularly used, indispensable household appliance to one in three adults. On a typical day 24 million Americans use a home computer for some personal or work-related task. Moreover, a “new wave” of demographically distinct consumers are being drawn into the market as home computers become more affordable. Surprisingly, CD-ROM drives are now found on almost half of all home PCs, and are seen by consumers as a more essential feature than online services.

These are the principal findings of the Times Mirror Center’s second annual study of the way new information technology is being used by American consumers. The trend survey found the number of Americans subscribing to an online service swelling from 5 million in the winter of 1994 to nearly 12 million by June of this year. This year’s survey, conducted among a national sample of 4005 respondents, also found that 2 million Americans connect to the Internet directly without benefit of a commercial service.

More Capacity Than Usage

The capability of Americans to go online from home grew much more quickly over the past 12 months than did subscriptions to online services. Our findings indicate that currently 18 million homes have modem-equipped computers, compared to 1994 when 11 million households had such machines. Owing to the tremendous sales of modem-equipped computers recently, a great deal of online capacity stands unused — specifically, more than 8 million households containing modem-equipped computers. These consumers represent a clear potential source for the continued rapid expansion of online usage. Most unused modems are on 486 or Pentium machines.

Among those who currently use their modems, the study detected a decided softness in attitudes toward online activities and a fragile pattern of use. Only 32% of those who go online say they would miss it “a lot” if no longer available. This compares to nearly twice as many computer users (63%), newspaper readers (58%) and cable TV subscribers (54%) who would say the same about these services. The frequency of online activity is also modest. Just 20% of online users go online every day.

Users of the three principal commercial services, America Online, Prodigy and CompuServe, were fairly similar in their frequency of usage. However, Prodigy and America Online are used more for pleasure and in the afternoon or evenings. CompuServe and the direct Internet connections are used more for work and more often during the day. Subscribers to each of the commercial services were about equally satisfied with the service delivered. But Americans who access the Internet directly are heavier online users and more satisfied than are those who use commercial services. They also consider online access much more indispensable than do those with commercial services. Fully 18% of commercial subscribers are signed on to more than one service, which is another measure of the unsettled state of the online world.

Online Numbers

                         Millions of Households

Has modem-equipped computer        18

     But modem unused               8

                         Millions of Americans

Ever Go:

Online from home                   14

Online from work or school,

not home                           11

Online to commercial service

or Internet                        12

     Subscribes to more than

     one service                    3

Regular* E-MAIL user               12

Regular* Online news reader         7

Connects to office or school        5

Navigates World Wide Web            5

*Regular refers to respondents who said they engage

in the activity either "daily", "3-5 times a week,"

or "1-2 days per week."

Typically, users go online a few times a week. But the pattern of specific activities suggest that few online features are compelling to them. A majority (53%) send or receive e-mail at least once a week, and many (41%) perform work-related research or communication online. However, relatively small percentages engage in other activities. Just 30% get the news online once a week or more often. Smaller percentages participate in discussion groups (23%), obtain entertainment related (19%) or financial information (14%).

Few Navigate the WWW

The two year old World Wide Web (WWW), which offers a whole new dimension of the Internet is still unchartered waters to most users. Only one in five of all online users (3% of Americans) have ever signed onto the Web. But among online users who have higher speed modems (14,400 baud or higher), use of the Web is far more common (53%). The most common ways that Americans get on to the WWW are through work connections (34%) or online services (33%), and “surfing” is the most popular way of discovering new sites (49%).

There are few signs in the study that use of online services or the Internet is changing traditional consumption patterns for news or goods and other services. Only 4% of all Americans are getting the news online at least once a week, and the overwhelming proportion of them (87%) said this activity has not affected their reliance on traditional news sources. As found in past Times Mirror Center surveys, users of advanced information technology continue to be heavier news consumers than are demographically-comparable samples of non- users. Similarly, commerce online is relatively modest. Only 8% of users have purchased anything via online capabilities within the month prior to the survey.

E-Mail Delivers

In contrast, e-mail appears to be making a real impact on users. Most e-mail users check their e-mail either once a day (29%), or more than once a day (22%). In a typical day, the average e-mail user sends three messages and receives five. One in four e-mail users are members of “listservs” (or electronic mailing lists), and a majority of those participate in more than one listserv. E-mail is sent or received as often for personal reasons (68%) as for work-related reasons (69%).

More than two-thirds of those who use e-mail at work (69%) said it fosters greater communication between upper and lower echelons in an organization. Over one-third (36%) believed it also results in franker communications between bosses and their workers. As many as six in ten who use e-mail for personal reasons said they communicate more often with family and friends because of e-mail (59%). Women reported increased exchanges of this kind more often than men (65% to 56%). In that regard, e-mail is the only regular computer activity in which women engage as frequently as men.

Online activities are closely associated with the substantial proportion of Americans who work at home. Most employed online users (53%) had worked at home at least one day of the week preceding the survey, and fully 20% had worked at home at least one day of the prior week instead of “going in” to work. In comparison, 33% of all employed respondents in the survey had worked at home at least one day of the pre-survey week, and 13% had worked at home at least one day rather than at their regular workplace.

A New Wave of Technology Users

In 1994, the Times Mirror Center estimated that 31% of all American households contained a computer and that 26% of all adults used a home computer at least once in a while. The current poll finds computers in 36% of all households and 32% using a PC. Although more Americans are telecommuting, growth in PC ownership is being fueled by consumers using PCs for personal reasons, not work related ones. Specifically, the frequency of PC use at home for personal reasons rose from 21% to 29%, while use for work or school-related purposes was little changed in the past year.

HOME BASED COMPUTERS*

                         Millions of Households

Has one or more                    32

     Has one only                  24

     Has more than one              9

Acquired in past 24 months         11

Acquired earlier                   22

Has one or more desktops           31

Has one or more laptops             6

Primary Computer:

Mac                                 5

IBM                                24

Other                               3

Computer Chip:

Pentium                             1

486                                 9

386                                 6

Less than 386                       2

Has CD-ROM                         15

*The questions for this table were only asked of

those who ever use their home PC (4% of PC owners

do not use their PC.) However, for the purposes

of this table, we made projections based on all PC owners.

More than one in three of the computers used in American households has been acquired within the past two years and as many as 15% were bought within the past twelve months. Although computers remain appliances of the well educated and the affluent, “new wave” owners (acquired PC within the last two years) are more likely to be middle income, not as highly educated, and younger than those who purchased them more than two years earlier. These new owners are as likely to use their PCs for financial record-keeping as are long-time owners. But they perform less word processing and play games more often. Fewer “new wave” owners use online services, but a greater percentage have CD-ROM drives.

CD-ROMs Catch On

CD-ROMs have achieved significant penetration among home users. The survey found that nearly half of all computer users surveyed (48%) had a CD-ROM drive. Patterns of usage and attitudes toward this feature indicate that CD-ROMs have been better received than online services. Most CD-ROM users (46%) said they were using their drive at least as often as they expected. And compared to online services, a somewhat greater percentage said they would miss their CD-ROM drives “a lot” if no longer available (40% vs 32%). Fully 52% said they use their drive at least once a week, and more than one in four (28%) reported using it more often. This new technology is used as much as word processing programs, and more often than financial record-keeping programs.

Few Burdened By Technology

On broader questions, the polling found that Americans continue to have positive feelings about high-tech in general. As in last years’s survey, two out of three respondents said they like computers and technology. Very few voiced dislike (4%), although almost one in four (24%) had mixed feelings, and a similar number said they felt “overloaded with information” (23%). Most (64%) said they liked having all of the television news shows, magazines, newspapers, and computer information services that are available these days.

Privacy concerns also continue, however. Half of the public worries either a lot (20%) or some (30%) that computers are being used to invade their privacy. But those Americans who have the most experience with high-tech today, the online users, are less worried about computers invading their privacy than are non-users (44% vs. 51%).

Online Politics

In their social attitudes, online users differ from average Americans and they also are unlike people of similar demographic backgrounds who do not go online. Online users are more tolerant people. They are more accepting of homosexuality. They are more in favor of free expression with regard to the kinds of books that should be allowed in public libraries and also to the presence of pornography on the Internet.

On other political dimensions, online users are much the same as non-users. For example, their views about government regulation of business and federal welfare for the needy were not much different from that of the public at large. They are more supportive of government regulation of business, but they hold the same views as non-users about social welfare. Users and non-users were essentially indistinguishable in terms of political party identification.

However, the survey did find one element of the online population that differed from the norm. Those who access the Internet directly are somewhat more likely than commercial service users and the public at large to “understand the frustrations and anger” that may have led to the Oklahoma City bombing of a federal building (20% vs. 14%). Greater “understanding” about the motives was also found among those who participate in online discussions about politics.

Other Findings

Most Americans (54%) now use a computer either at home, at work or at school. The public favors laws to bar pornography from the Internet, 52% to 41%.

Nine percent of American households have given up on computers. They no longer own one.

Eighteen percent of PC users own a laptop. Among online users who own a laptop, 29% sometimes go online while traveling.

Nearly one-half of modem owners (47%) don’t know the baud rate of their units.

Eleven percent of home computer owners go online from a “computer room” within their home. But the most popular rooms for cyberspace departure are home office or study (32%) and living room or den (25%).

More than one in four (28%) have had online sessions that lasted as long as three hours or more.

Almost one in four online users (23%) have an “online buddy” they have never met in person.

More than one-third (35%) of online users have received an electronic news clipping or story from a friend.

Six percent of Americans have a satellite dish, up from 4% last year. Nearly one-in- three (2% of all) has a small disk satellite dish.

The Use of Household Information Technologies By Major Demographic Groups

Percentage Based on Total Respondents

               ------At Home------ Subscribes   Regular

               Computer  Has       To any Online       E-Mail    Used

               User      CD-ROM    Info. Service       User WWW

Total           32        15             6                 7       3

Sex:

  Male         38        18              9                 9       4

  Female       28        13              4                 6       2

Race:

  White        33        16              7                 7       3

  Black        20         8              3                 5       1

  Hispanic     29        12              8                 8       1

Age:

  18-29        38        18              9                12       6

  30-49        41        20              9                 9       3

  50-64        26        12              4                 6       1

  65+           9         4              1                 *       *

Age By Gender:

  18-29

     Male      41        20             14                14       8

     Female    36        16              5                 8       4

  30-49

     Male      44        22             10                 9       5

     Female    38        18              7                 7       2

  50+

     Male      25        10              5                 5       2

     Female    13         6              1                 2       0

Education:

  College+     57        28             15                16       8

  Some College 44        19              8                 9       3

  H.S. Grad    23        10              3                 4       1

< H.S.       11         6              2                 1       *

Family Income:

  $50K+        57        29             14                13       5

  $30-49K      37        18              6                 7       4

  $20-29K      23         9              4                 5       2

< $20K       12         4              1                 2       1

Children

  Kids in Home 42        21              7                 8       3

  No Kids      26        12              6                 7       3

Employment:

  Employed     38        18              9                10       4

  Unemployed   19        10              2                 2       1

  In School    53        24             13                17       7

  Worked at 

    home*      53        26             14                15       5

  Home based

   business    53        25             12                 9       3

Region:

  East         32        17              7                 8       2

  Midwest      28        15              5                 6       2

  South        28        12              6                 7       3

  West         42        19              9                 9       5

City Size

  City         32        16              7                 8       4

  Small town   26        12              5                 5       1

  Suburbs      47        22             10                11       4

  Rural        28        14              5                 6       2

Other Technology:

  Has Satellite 

     dish      30        16              7                 8       5

  Has cellular 

     phone     52        28             12                11       4

  Subscribes to

    cable TV   35        17              7                 8       3

*Respondent worked at home at least one day last week.

As the internet was in its earliest stages as a mass communication medium, the Times Mirror Center for the People & the Press undertook a major study investigating the ways in which new and old technology were being integrated into peoples’ lives.

The study is based on a survey of 3,667 adults nationwide, and an additional survey of 400 children between the ages of 13 and 17.