As Americans head to the polls this November, their values and basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years. Unlike in 1987, when this series of surveys began, the values gap between Republicans and Democrats is now greater than gender, age, race or class divides.

Overall, there has been much more stability than change across the 48 political values measures that the Pew Research Center has tracked since 1987. But the average partisan gap has nearly doubled over this 25-year period – from 10 percentage points in 1987 to 18 percentage points in the new study.

Nearly all of the increases have occurred during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. During this period, both parties’ bases have often been critical of their parties for not standing up for their traditional positions. Currently, 71% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats say their parties have not done a good job in this regard.

With regard to the broad spectrum of values, basic demographic divisions – along lines such as gender, race, ethnicity, religion and class – are no wider than they have ever been. Men and women, whites, blacks and Hispanics, the highly religious and the less religious, and those with more and less education differ in many respects. However, these differences have not grown in recent years, and for the most part pale in comparison to the overwhelming partisan divide we see today.

In recent years, both parties have become smaller and more ideologically homogeneous. Republicans are dominated by self-described conservatives, while a smaller but growing number of Democrats call themselves liberals. Among Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber moderates by about two-to-one. And there are now as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.

But the growing partisan divide over political values is not simply the result of the declining number who identify with the party labels. While many Americans have given up their party identification over the past 25 years and now call themselves independents, the polarization extends also to independents, most of whom lean toward a political party. Even when the definition of the party bases is extended to include these leaning independents, the values gap has about doubled between 1987 and 2012.

Looking ahead to the 2012 election, the largest divides between committed supporters of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are over the scope and role of government in the economic realm. Swing voters, who make up about a quarter of all registered voters, are cross-pressured. Their attitudes on the social safety net and immigration are somewhat closer to those of Romney supporters, while they tilt closer to Obama supporters in opinions about labor unions and some social issues.

In contrast to the widening partisan gap, the new survey finds neither growing class differences in fundamental political values, nor increasing class resentment. As in the past, a substantial majority of Americans agree that “the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.” Yet there are no indications of increasing hostility toward the rich and successful. And there are no signs that lower-income people have become more cynical about an individual’s power to control their destiny or the value of hard work.

At the same time, the proportion of Americans who see a widening gap in living standards between the poor and middle class has grown since the mid-1980s. But the public sees no greater gap in values differences between the middle class and poor over this period.

The polling finds little support for the broad notion of American “declinism.” As has been the case in previous political values surveys, a large majority agrees that “as Americans we can always find a way to solve our problems and get what we want.” The public’s confidence in the nation has not been dulled, even as Americans have become more skeptical about prospects for economic growth.

These are among the principal findings of the latest Pew Research Center American Values survey, conducted April 4-15, 2012, among 3,008 adults nationwide. The values project, which began in 1987 and has been updated 14 times since then, tracks a wide range of the public’s fundamental beliefs. These questions do not measure opinions about specific policy or political questions, but rather the underlying values that ultimately shape those opinions.

Widening Gaps over Social Safety Net, Environmentalism

The survey covers the public’s attitudes on the role and performance of government, the environment, business, labor, equal opportunity, national security and several other dimensions.

Republicans are most distinguished by their increasingly minimalist views about the role of government and lack of support for environmentalism. Democrats have become more socially liberal and secular. Republicans and Democrats are most similar in their level of political engagement.

On some sets of issues, such as views of the social safety net, there already were sizable partisan gaps in Pew Research’s first political values study in 1987. But these differences have widened considerably. On others, such as measures of religiosity and social conservatism, there were only modest differences initially, but these divides also have grown.

Republicans and Democrats are furthest apart in their opinions about the social safety net. There are partisan differences of 35 points or more in opinions about the government’s responsibility to care for the poor, whether the government should help more needy people if it means adding to the debt and whether the government should guarantee all citizens enough to eat and a place to sleep.

On all three measures, the percentage of Republicans asserting a government responsibility to aid the poor has fallen in recent years to 25-year lows.

Just 40% of Republicans agree that “It is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves,” down 18 points since 2007. In three surveys during the George W. Bush administration, no fewer than half of Republicans said the government had a responsibility to care for those unable to care for themselves. In 1987, during the Ronald Reagan’s second term, 62% expressed this view.

Over the past two decades, the public consensus in favor of tougher environmental restrictions has weakened, also primarily because of changing opinions among Republicans.

For the first time in a Pew Research Center political values survey, only about half of Republicans (47%) agree that “there needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment.” This represents a decline of 17 points since 2009 and a fall of nearly 40 points, from 86%, since 1992.

The partisan gap over this measure was modest two decades ago. Today, roughly twice as many Democrats as Republicans say stricter environmental laws and regulations are needed (93% vs. 47%).

Democrats More Secular, Socially Liberal

Yet the widening partisan divide in political values is not just the result of changing opinions among Republicans. Democrats have shifted their views in a number of areas in recent years, though less dramatically: They have become more secular, more positive in their views of immigrants and more supportive of policies aimed at achieving equal opportunity.

Roughly three-quarters of Democrats (77%) say they “never doubt the existence of God,” as do 76% of independents. The proportion of Democrats saying they never doubt God’s existence has fallen 11 points over the past decade. Among white Democrats, the decline has been 17 points – from 85% in 2002 to 68% currently.

Independents also are less likely to express firm belief in God than in the past. By contrast, the percentage of Republicans saying they never doubt God’s existence is as large today (92%) as it was a decade ago, or a quarter century ago.

There also has been a substantial decline in the share of Democrats saying they “have old-fashioned values about family and marriage.” Just 60% of Democrats currently agree, down from 70% in 2007 and 86% in the first political values survey. Republicans’ views have shown far less change: Currently, 88% say they have old-fashioned values about marriage and family.

Democratic support for doing whatever is necessary to improve the position of minorities, including the possible use of preferences, has increased in recent years. About half (52%) of Democrats agree that “We should make every effort to improve the position of blacks and other minorities, even if it means giving them preferential treatment” – an 11-point increase since 2007.

Republicans’ views have changed little over this period. Just 12% currently agree that all efforts should be taken, including the use of preferential treatment, to improve the position of minorities. Since 1987, the gap between the two parties has about doubled – from 18 points to 40 points.

Class Divides: No Wider than in 1987

While the partisan gaps in political values have increased substantially, class divisions have not. This does not mean there are not significant differences, particularly when it comes to views about whether hard work leads to success and whether success is within an individual’s control. But these differences are generally no wider today than in recent years, or than they were in the initial political values survey.

For the past 25 years, majorities across most groups have rejected the idea that “hard work offers little guarantee of success.” In the current survey, just 35% agree with this statement while 63% disagree. As in the past, those with less education and lower incomes are more likely than those with more education and higher incomes to say that hard work does not ensure success.

Currently, 45% of those with no more than a high school education agree that hard work offers little guarantee of success, compared with 25% of college graduates. The gap was about as large in Pew Research’s first political values study (35% vs.17%).

Among whites who have not completed college, 36% are skeptical that hard work guarantees success; fewer white college graduates agree (24%). The education gap among whites was comparable in 1987 (29% non-college grad, 16% college grad).

There is greater agreement across socioeconomic lines in views of the gap between the rich and poor in this country.

As has been the case in most values surveys, majorities in all educational and income groups agree that “today it’s really true that the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.” In the current survey, 76% of the public agrees with this statement, about the same as the 74% that agreed in 1987.

Still, there is evidence that the public sees greater economic inequality today than it did in the 1980s. About six-in-ten (61%) say the gap in living standards between middle class and poor people has widened over the past 10 years, while just 28% say it has narrowed.

In a 1986 survey by Gallup and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, just 40% said the gap in the standard of living between the middle class and poor had grown, while about as many (39%) said it had narrowed.

Yet there has been far less change in opinions about whether the values of middle class and poor people are growing apart. In the current survey, 47% say the values of the middle class and poor have gotten more similar over the past 10 years; somewhat fewer (41%) say they have gotten more different. That is little changed from the 1986 survey, when 44% said the values of each had gotten more similar and 33% more different.

Economic Views Sour, But No Decline in Optimism

The survey also finds new evidence of the toll taken by the economic downturn, both on people’s personal financial assessments and their views of the country’s economic prospects. Just 53% say they are “pretty well satisfied with the way things are going for me financially.” That matches the lowest percentage ever, reached three years ago. People with family incomes of $75,000 or more express greater satisfaction with their finances than in 2009; financial satisfaction has continued to sag among those with incomes of less than $40,000.

Only about half of Americans (51%) agree with this statement: “I don’t believe that there are any real limits to growth in this country today”; 45% disagree. That is the lowest percentage ever agreeing with this statement, down slightly from 54% in 2009. In the first political values survey, 67% said there were no limits to growth in the United States.

Despite persistent economic pessimism, however, the public remains bullish about the ability of the American people to overcome challenges. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) agree that “As Americans, we can always find a way to solve our problems and get what we want.” While that is largely unchanged from 2009 (70%), it is up 11 points since 2007 (58%). It also is about the same percentage that agreed with this statement in the first values survey (68%).

Political Values and the 2012 Election

When the values items are combined into indices (grouping measures on common subjects, such as the social safety net, into a single scale), swing voters – who make up 23% of all registered voters – tend to fall about halfway between certain Obama voters and certain Romney voters. Swing voters are either undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or favor a candidate but say there is still a chance they will change their minds.  (For more, see “With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows,” April 17, 2012).

On views about the scope and performance of government, for example, there is a wide divide between certain Obama and Romney supporters. But the attitudes of swing voters are about equidistant from backers of either candidate. The same is true on several other key indices, including views of business, the environment and national security.

Nonetheless, there are some issues on which the views of swing voters tilt slightly toward the backers of either candidate. On attitudes toward labor and social conservatism, opinion among swing voters comes somewhat closer to that of Obama voters. By contrast, on indices measuring attitudes on the social safety net and immigration, swing voters’ opinions tilt toward those of Romney supporters.

While the views of swing voters generally fall between those of certain Obama and Romney backers, there are a handful of individual questions that show agreement between swing voters and the supporters of one candidate or the other.

For example, on the power of labor unions and admiration of wealthy people, the opinions of swing voters are closer to those of Obama supporters. About half of swing voters (51%) agree that labor unions have too much power, placing them closer to the views of Obama supporters (39% agree) than Romney supporters (82%).

Just 22% of swing voters, and an identical percentage of Obama supporters, say they “admire people who are rich.” A much higher percentage of Romney supporters (38%) agree.

But swing voters are far closer to Romney voters on the question of whether the government should help more needy people even if it means going further into debt: just 19% of Romney voters and 27% of swing voters agree, compared with a 62% majority of Obama voters.

Number of Independents Continues to Grow

While Republicans and Democrats have been moving further apart in their beliefs, both groups have also been shrinking. Pew Research Center polling conducted so far in 2012 has found fewer Americans affiliating with one of the major parties than at any point in the past 25 years. And looking at data from Gallup going back to 1939, it is safe to say that there are more political independents in 2012 than at any point in the last 75 years.

Currently, 38% of Americans identify as independents, while 32% affiliate with the Democratic Party and 24% affiliate with the GOP. That is little changed from recent years, but long-term trends show that both parties have lost support.

The percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats increased from 31% in 2002, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, to 36% in 2008. But over the past four years, Democratic affiliation has fallen to 32%. Republican identification stood at 30% in 2002, but fell to 25% in 2008 and has not recovered since then.

More Conservative Republicans, More Liberal Democrats

Over the past decade, the Republican Party has come to be dominated by conservatives, while liberals make up an increasing share of Democrats.

In surveys conducted this year, 68% of Republicans describe themselves as politically conservative. That is little changed from 2008, but is higher than in 2004 (63%) or 2000 (60%).

Demographically, Republicans remain overwhelmingly white and their average age now approaches 50. Fully 87% of Republicans are non-Hispanic whites, a figure which has changed little since 2000.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Democrats who say their political views are liberal has risen from 28% in 2000 to 34% in 2008 and 38% in 2012 surveys by the Pew Research Center. For the first time, there are as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.

In contrast to Republicans, Democrats have grown increasingly diverse. A narrow majority of Democrats (55%) are non-Hispanic whites, down from 64% in 2000. As in recent years, most Democrats are women (59%). And while the average age of self-described Democrats has risen since 2008 – from 46.9 to 47.7 – Democrats continue to be younger than Republicans on average (47.7 vs. 49.7).

Independents also have become more diverse since 2000: Two-thirds of independents (67%) are non-Hispanic whites, down 12 points from 2000. The proportion of independents who are Hispanic has nearly doubled – from 9% to 16% – over this period.

A plurality of independents (43%) describes their views as moderate, while 30% are conservative and 22% are liberal. These views are largely unchanged from previous election years.

But while Americans are hearing more about class conflict, there is no sense that the American people are on the verge of class conflict; they just want a better chance of achieving success themselves. They want government policies that give everyone a fair shot, reflecting bedrock American belief in the individual’s ability to succeed through hard work.

A recent Gallup poll found 70% saying that it is extremely or very important that the federal government in Washington enact policies that increase the equality of opportunity for people to get ahead. By comparison, just 46% say it is extremely or very important for the government to reduce the income and wealth gap between the rich and poor; 54% say this is somewhat important or not important. Income inequality is an element of the economic system that is accepted by many Americans: 52% say the fact that some people in the U.S. are rich and others are poor is an acceptable part of our economic system.

A sense of economic inequality is hardly new. A broad majority public (77%) says that there is too much power in the hands of a few rich people and large corporations; and as far back as 1941, Gallup polling found a majority (60%) expressing this view. In addition, the public agrees with the statement that in general the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer –majorities have consistently said this since Pew Research first asked the question in 1987.

At root, these concerns are associated with the issue of economic fairness. About six-in-ten (61%) say the economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy. Far fewer say that the economic system is generally fair to most Americans (36%). Concerns over economic fairness can also be seen in the public’s negative reactions to government policies such as the bank bailout. A Pew Research Center survey in February  found that 39% say that the 2008 loans to banks and financial institutions were the right thing to do; 52% say they were the wrong thing.

The public’s desire for fairness in government policy is perhaps best seen in views of the tax system. A majority of Americans now say the federal tax system is unfair and there has been a seven-point rise in this view since 2003.The public’s top complaint about taxes is not how much they themselves pay; rather, it is the belief that some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share. Nearly six-in-ten (57%) say what bothers them most about taxes is the feeling that some wealthy don’t pay their fair share, just 11% say it is the amount they themselves pay. The public supports overhauling the federal tax system and this support stems primarily from concerns over the fairness of the system.

A desire for a level economic playing field is tied to American individualism. Belief in the individual’s ability to achieve success through hard work is a bedrock American value. And there is a strong belief that the individual has the power to shape their own future.

Three-quarters (75%) agree with the statement that everyone has it in their own power to succeed; just 19% say success is determined by outside forces. This view has been held by wide majorities ever since the question was first asked in 1994.

A majority of the public (58%) also agrees with the statement that most people who want to get ahead can make it if they’re willing to work hard. However, public views of opportunity are not immune to hard economic times – agreement with this statement has slipped somewhat in recent years.

But there is no less admiration for people who get rich by working hard: 90% agree with this sentiment, just 8% disagree. This near-unanimous opinion highlights that the public’s fundamental complaint is not with the rich themselves.

Pew Global Attitudes surveys have consistently found that Americans’ views of the individual and role of the state set them apart from the publics of many Western European nations. Nearly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say it is more important that everyone be free to pursue their life’s goals without interference from the state; far fewer (35%) say it is more important that the state play an active role in society so as to guarantee that nobody is in need. The balance of opinion is reversed among Western European countries. In Spain, for example, 67% say the state guaranteeing that no one is in need is more important, just 30% say individual freedom to pursue goals should be prioritized.

Similarly, asked if they agree that “success in life is pretty much determined by forces outside our control,” most Americans disagree. Opinion is much more mixed among Western European nations. For example, 57% of the French and 72% of Germans say that success in life is determined by outside forces.

Americans’ more skeptical view of a strong social safety net has consequences. About a third of Americans (32%) say there have been times in the past year when they have been unable to afford health care, which is consistent with Pew Research Center surveys over the past decade. That is far higher than the percentages in four Western European countries who say this. People in the United States also are more likely to say they have been unable to afford food in the past year.

But while Americans are hearing more and more about class conflict, there is little indication that they are increasingly divided along these lines. People don’t necessarily want to take money from the wealthy; they just want a better chance to get rich themselves. They care about policies that give everyone a fair shot — a distinction that candidates in both parties should understand as they head into the 2012 campaigns.

An awareness of economic inequality is not new. Pew surveys going back to 1987 have found an average of 75 percent of the American public thinking that the “rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.” As far back as 1941, 60 percent of respondents told the Gallup poll that there was too much power in the hands of a few rich people and large corporations in the United States.

Read the full article.

The percentage of Americans who see society as divided between haves and have-nots declined shortly after Barack Obama took office, but has rebounded since. In April 2009, just 35% said the nation was divided economically, down from 44% in October 2008. The number saying the nation is economically divided increased to 42% a year later and has changed little since then (45% currently).

Since 2009, the percentage of independents saying the country is divided between haves and have-nots has risen 15 points, from 32% to 47%. There has been a comparable increase in the proportion of Democrats expressing this view (from 47% to 59%). Just 27% of Republicans see the nation as economically divided, which is largely unchanged from two years ago (24%).

While consistent with views over much of the past decade, the balance of opinion about economic division in the country stands in contrast to where it was a quarter century ago.  In Gallup polls in the mid-1980s, far wider majorities rejected the idea that the country was divided into haves and have-nots.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted Sept. 22-25 among 1,000 adults, finds that 48% say that, if forced to choose, they are among the haves, while 34% say they are among the have-nots. This balance of opinion has changed little over the past six years. Over the longer term, however, the number seeing themselves in the have-nots has risen substantially. In 1988, half as many described themselves this way (17%) as is the case today (34%).

By two-to-one (29% vs. 15%), more Americans think the Obama administration does more to help the have-nots than to help the haves, with a plurality (45%) saying it treats both groups about equally.

Public impressions of congressional Republicans are quite different:  47% say they are mostly helping the haves, while just 7% say they are mostly helping the have-nots; 32% say Republicans are treating both groups the same. Current assessments of the Republicans in Congress are similar to 2004 opinions of which group George W. Bush’s administration was doing more to help (47% the haves, 4% the have-nots, 42% both about the same).

Interestingly, partisan differences are relatively modest in views of which groups the Obama administration is doing more to help. More Republicans, Democrats and independents say the administration is doing more to help the have-nots than the haves. By contrast, 72% of Democrats say the GOP mostly helps the haves, compared with 46% of independents and just 20% of Republicans.

Haves and Have-Nots: Long-Term Views

There long have been wide racial differences in views of whether the nation is economically divided. In the current survey, 73% of African Americans say the nation is divided between haves and have-nots, compared with 40% of whites.

When Gallup first asked this question in 1988, blacks were almost twice as like as whites to express this view (49% vs. 24%). There also have been persistent partisan and income differences in these opinions.

In 1988, far more Americans saw themselves as haves than have-nots (59% vs. 17%), but the balance of opinion has narrowed. In recent years, nearly half have placed themselves in the haves while slightly more than a third see themselves as have-nots.

While partisan differences in these self-assessments have fluctuated, income differences have been fairly consistent over time. In the current survey, 75% of those with family incomes of $75,000 or more say they are haves, compared with 46% of those with incomes of $30,000 to $75,000 and 36% of those with incomes of less than $30,000.

The public sees clear winners and losers from the economic policies the government has implemented since the recession of 2008. Most Americans say these policies have helped large banks, large corporations and the wealthy, while providing little or no help for the poor, the middle class or small businesses.

Fully 74% say that government policies over the past two years have done a great deal (53%) or a fair amount (21%) to help large banks and financial institutions. Majorities also say that large corporations (70% great deal/fair amount) and wealthy people (57% great deal/fair amount) have been helped.

By contrast, 68% say government policies have helped small businesses not at all (29%) or not too much (39%); 68% also say middle-class people have received little or no help from these policies. And about the same percentage (64%) says poor people have not been helped.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted July 15-18 among 1,003 adults, finds partisan differences over the perceived beneficiaries of government economic policies – with two notable exceptions. Large majorities of independents (77%), Republicans (75%) and Democrats (73%) say these policies have helped large banks and financial institutions. No more than a third in each group says government policies have done a great deal or a fair amount for the poor.

More Democrats than Republicans say government economic policies have helped the wealthy (by 22 percentage points) and large corporations (by 13 points). And more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans say government policies have benefited the middle class and small businesses.

Poor Say Policies Have Helped Wealthy, Not Them

Across income groups, more say that wealthy people have been helped by the economic policies of the last few years than say middle class or poor Americans have been aided by these policies, but this difference is most pronounced among the poor themselves. About two-thirds of those with annual family incomes of less than $30,000 (68%) say that the wealthy have benefited a great deal or a fair amount from recent economic policies; that compares with 58% of those with incomes of $30,000-74,999 and 50% of those with incomes of $75,000 or more.

At the same time, lower income people are also the least likely to say poor people have been helped by economic policies during the recession. Just 21% of those with incomes of less than $30,000 say this, compared to 37% of those with higher annual incomes.

DEFICIT REDUCTION NOW SEEN AS HIGHER PRIORITY THAN SPENDING TO BOOST RECOVERY

The public now sees reducing the budget deficit as a higher priority than increasing government spending to help the economy recover. And by virtually the same margin, more Americans also place greater priority on reducing the budget deficit than on cutting taxes.
In Pew Research Center surveys over the past year, the public had been evenly divided over whether the government should reduce the budget deficit or spend more to boost the economy. Today, 51% sees deficit reduction as the higher priority while 40% say the government should spend more to help the economy recover. Similarly, 51% say that reducing the budget deficit is a higher priority than cutting taxes, while 41% sees tax cuts as the higher priority.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted July 15-18 among 1,003 adults, finds independents leading the way in changing priorities for government economic policies. Currently, 53% of independents see reducing the deficit as a higher priority while 38% say spending more to boost the economy. In February, these figures were almost reversed: 51% said the higher priority for government was to spend more to help the economy recover while 42% said it was more important to reduce the budget deficit.

Republicans also have become more supportive of reducing the budget deficit since February; 73% now say that should be the higher priority, up from 63% five months ago. Opinions among Democrats are virtually unchanged – 57% now say the government should spend more to help the economy recover while 34% say the higher priority is reducing the deficit.

However, when the choice is between deficit reduction and cutting taxes, most Democrats (57%) view reducing the budget deficit as the higher priority. Republicans are evenly divided, with 47% saying that cutting taxes is the higher priority compared with 45% who say reducing the deficit. Independents also are split; 50% rate deficit reduction as a higher priority than tax cuts, while 43% say the reverse.

No Consensus on How to Boost Economy

When asked solely about which approach would be more effective in jump-starting the economy, the public divides fairly evenly between more government spending and cutting taxes.
In this context, nearly half (47%) say it would be more effective for the government to spend more on such things as education, public works and unemployment benefits; 42% say it would be more effective to cut taxes for businesses and individuals.

While Republicans are divided over whether deficit reduction or tax cuts should take precedence, they clearly view tax cuts as more effective for the goal of stimulating the economy. Fully 61% of Republicans see tax cuts for individuals and businesses as more effective, while just 31% say that about increased government spending. By an equally wide margin, Democrats see increased government spending as more effective (67% to 23%). About half of independents (51%) view tax cuts as more effective; 38% say more spending on such things as education, public works and unemployment benefits would be more effective.

MOST SAY STIMULUS HAS INCREASED DEFICIT, FEW SEE ITS BENEFITS

Looking back at last year’s economic stimulus program, a large majority of Americans say it has increased the federal budget deficit. Far fewer say it has prevented steeper job losses or led to improvements in roads and other infrastructure in their area.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted July 15-18 among 1,003 adults, finds that fully 66% say the economic stimulus has increased the federal budget deficit. By comparison, 43% say it has led to improvements in roads, bridges and other infrastructure in their area. Only about third (35%) say it helped keep unemployment from getting even worse while just 29% say it helped state and local governments avoid layoffs and budget cuts.

Republicans take highly negative views of the impact of the stimulus. Eight-in-ten (80%) say it has increased the budget deficit; 31% say it has improved infrastructure in their area, while even fewer say it helped prevent higher unemployment (18%) and state and local budget cuts (14%).

But many independents and Democrats also are skeptical of the benefits of the stimulus. And majorities of both groups say it has increased the federal budget deficit (69% of independents, 55% of Democrats).

Democrats express positive views of the impact of the stimulus on roads and infrastructure in their area (56% helped), while 49% say it has kept unemployment from getting even worse and 41% say it helped state and local governments avoid layoffs and budget cuts. Fewer than half of independents see the stimulus helping infrastructure in their area (41%), unemployment (34%) and state and local governments (29%).

African Americans see a widening gulf between the values of middle class and poor blacks, and nearly four-in-ten say that because of the diversity within their community, blacks can no longer be thought of as a single race, a new Pew Research Center survey has found. The survey also finds blacks less upbeat about the state of black progress now than at any time since 1983. Looking backward, just one-in-five blacks say things are better for blacks now than they were five years ago. Looking ahead, fewer than half of all blacks (44%) say they think life for blacks will get better in the future, down from the 57% who said so in a 1986 survey.

View the complete report at pewsocialtrends.org

Of equal importance, the number of Americans who see themselves among the “have-nots” of society has doubled over the past two decades, from 17% in 1988 to 34% today. In 1988, far more Americans said that, if they had to choose, they probably were among the “haves” (59%) than the “have-nots” (17%). Today, this gap is far narrower (45% “haves” vs. 34% “have-nots”).

Read the full analysis at PewResearch.org

Read full analysis at Pewresearch.org

Much is at stake, not just for the union movement but also for the political parties. Working class voters are a key swing constituency, and in recent years the Republicans have made significant gains among this economic group, even as the Democrats have retained their strong support from labor union members and their immediate families.

Today, just 12.5% of the workforce belongs to a union; the rate was more than twice as high when the AFL-CIO was founded 50 years ago. But the union vote carries more political clout than the sharp decline in overall membership suggests. Since 1980 about one-in-four voters on election day belonged to a household that included a union member, and there is no sign that this percentage is declining.

But while the union vote remains a key part of the Democratic base, the economic class from which most union members are drawn has become a growth area for Republicans. Indeed, a review of relevant data suggest that the age-old political axiom — Democrats are the party of the working class; Republicans are the party of the well-to-do — could stand a little updating.

A new Pew Research Center analysis of national public opinion surveys conducted since 1992 — some 129 surveys with more than 200,000 respondents — has found that at the broadest level, the axiom still holds. It remains true now, as it was in 1992, that the more income a person has, the more likely he or she is to be a Republican, and the less income a person has, the more likely he or she is to be a Democrat.

But the analysis also yielded a couple of significant qualifiers. First, when it comes to explaining partisan affiliation, income is a relatively weak demographic indicator. It is only about half as important as church attendance, and just a third as important as race.

Second, even though there hasn’t been much change since 1992 in party identification at the top and bottom of the income curve, there has been some significant pro-Republican movement in the middle. Indeed, among whites, Republicans now enjoy a clear edge over Democrats not just in the upper income brackets, but also in the middle bracket and have made gains even in the lower-middle income bracket. These income groups contain the people who are either union members or likely targets of membership drives. They also typically contain many swing voters who decide close elections.

Party Breakdown By Quintile:

Upper Income Quintile (Annual household income above approx. $92,000, in 2005 dollars): In 2005, the GOP edge over Democrats among people in this income bracket is 38%-27% (with the remainder unaffiliated with either major party); back in 1992, the GOP edge was nearly identical, 37%-26%.

Upper Middle Income Quintile (Annual household income of approx. $58,000 to $92,000): The Republicans have a small edge over Democrats among all people in this bracket, 36%-31%, and a larger edge among whites, 40%-27%. Back in 1992, the GOP’s margins were smaller among all people (32%-29%) and among whites (34%-26%).

Middle Income Quintile (Annual household income of approx. $35,000 to $58,000): Among whites in this bracket, Republicans have opened up an 8 percentage point margin over Democrats (36%-28%), up from the 4 percentage point margin the GOP enjoyed in 1992 (32%-28%). When nonwhites are included, the overall public in this income range is divided almost evenly (33% Democrat, 32% Republican).

Lower Middle Income Quintile (Annual household income of approx. $19,000 to $35,000): Here is where the GOP gains have been strongest. Republicans still trail Democrats among all people in this bracket by 35%-28%, but the GOP now leads among whites in this bracket, by a slim 33%-29%. Back in 1992, the Democrats led the GOP among whites by 33%-28% and among all people by 38%-24%.

Lower Income Quintile (Annual household income below approx. $19,000): Republicans continue to trail by sizable margins in this income bracket. Currently the Democrats enjoy a 42%-20% advantage overall, comparable to their 43%-18% edge in 1992. Among whites, the Democratic edge is 37%-24% now and had been 37%-22% back in 1992.

These Republican gains among whites in the middle brackets aren’t limited to partisan identification. They also were a factor in helping Bush to his 51%-48% popular vote reelection victory.

According to last year’s election day exit poll, Bush carried the overall white vote by 58%-41%, while Sen. John Kerry captured the black vote by 88%-11%. That survey also separated voters into eight brackets of family income. It showed that Bush carried the white vote in seven of these eight brackets (all but the poorest) — and that he won by significant margins (see table) in six of the eight brackets, including by a 17 percentage point edge among whites with annual incomes of $30,000-$49,999.

It’s instructive to compare Bush’s supporters in 2004 with Ronald Reagan’s supporters two decades earlier. In winning landslide victories in 1980 and 1984, Reagan, like Bush, ran extremely well among middle and working class whites. The difference is that, back then, these voters were dubbed “Reagan Democrats.” A generation later, fewer of these working class voters needed to break free of their partisan allegiances in order to vote for Bush. Many were already Republicans.

Of course, presidential votes are determined by many factors beyond partisan allegiances — among them, the character of the candidates, the state of the economy, and the issue agenda of the campaign. For that reason, people are more prone to switch back and forth in their presidential vote than in their partisan self-identification.

A Longer Sweep of History

However, partisan allegiances also change — and over time, they can change a great deal. In the 1960s and 1970s, Democrats enjoyed as much as a two-to-one edge over Republicans in party identification, largely on the strength of the “big tent” coalition their party had assembled during the long presidency of Franklin Roosevelt. But by the end of the 1980s, President Reagan had helped to build a modern big-tent Republican Party that wiped out most of the earlier Democratic dominance.

The two parties have been closely matched ever since, with Democrats generally enjoying a small single-digit advantage over the GOP during the past decade and a half — in Pew’s July, 2005 survey, for example, 34% of respondents said they were Democrats, 31% Republicans and 29% Independents.

Just as these partisan allegiances have changed significantly over the longer sweep of history, so too have the relationships between party and income. A team of researchers led by Nolan McCarty of Princeton University has analyzed National Election Study survey data from 1952 to 2000 and found that there was much more partisan stratification by income at the end of that period than there had been at the beginning.

The biggest reason, they note, was the shift in the political alignment of Southern voters. In the 1950s, Southern whites of all income levels were among the most loyal Democrats in the country; they were still voting the way great-granddaddy shot in the Civil War. Meantime, blacks (almost all of whom were poor) were politically cross-pressured. Many were drawn to the Democrat Party by the policies of Franklin Roosevelt, but many others retained their ancestral loyalties to the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln.

The Civil Rights movement of the 1960s changed all that; blacks became nearly monolithically Democratic and Southern whites turned heavily Republican. Both these changes, in turn, contributed to a rise in partisan stratification by income.

Analyzing NES data, McCarty found that in the elections of 1956 and 1960, respondents in the highest income quintile were hardly more likely to identify as Republicans than were respondents in the lowest quintile. But by the elections of 1992 and 1996, those in the highest quintile were twice as likely as those in the lowest to call themselves Republicans. Pew’s 2000 and 2004 election year surveys show that this pattern has persisted.

In short, the familiar “Republicans are rich/Democrats are poor” stereotype is much more true now — at least at the extremes of the income curve — than it was a half century ago when the AFL-CIO was founded. However, when it comes to partisanship and income, the key battleground in American politics is in the middle brackets. And there, after a long slow climb that has occurred mostly in the past two decades, the GOP has reached parity with the Democrats.

Increase in Income Inequality

During the past half century, there has also been another significant change — an overall increase in income inequality. Economists disagree on its magnitude (mostly because there is a running dispute among economists over whether to count certain non-cash benefits, such as Medicaid and Medicare, in measuring household income), but virtually everyone agrees on the basic facts. In relative terms, the rich are richer, and everyone else is poorer, now than they were a generation and two generations ago.

More of the change has occurred at the top than at the bottom. According to the Census Bureau, the wealthiest quintile of households received 49.8% of all personal income in 2003; up from 43.8% in 1967, while the poorest quintile received 3.6% in 2003, down from 4% in 1967. The middle quintile received 14.8% in 2003, down from 17.3% in 1967.

However, McCarty found that this increase in income inequality has not played a significant role in the increase is partisan stratification by income. The modern history of presidential politics tends to bear out his analysis. Despite the substantial growth in relative income that the wealthy have enjoyed over the past two decades, the bash-the-rich politics of class resentment have not resonated with the electorate in the presidential campaigns waged during this era.

Where Income Rates

Indeed, when it comes to explaining partisanship, income is not nearly as powerful a factor as the familiar stereotype would suggest. To find out its relative influence, Pew conducted a multiple regression analysis of survey data it has collected on party identification since January of 2004. This is a statistical technique that measures the relative impact of each of a set of factors on a phenomenon of interest.

The analysis (see table) shows that of six demographic traits often linked to partisanship, race is the most influential driver of party identification, and frequency of church attendance is the second most important. Income, union membership and gender are of roughly equal importance, and education is least important.

The Labor Union Conundrum

The question at the heart of the labor movement’s schism is essentially a strategic one: Is it better to invest marginal resources in organizing drives to bring in new union members, or in get-out-the-vote drives to help elect pro-labor candidates?

Only the unions themselves can answer that question, but the data show that both approaches have grown more challenging over time. The sharp decline in union membership speaks to the inhospitality of the modern economy to the labor movement. And the growth in GOP identification among people in the middle income brackets suggests the difficulties in mobilizing such voters for pro-labor candidates.

But in the face of both of these changes, the data also make one more thing clear: the labor movement has done a very good job of getting those members it has to the polls, and keeping them loyal to the Democratic Party.