Jan. 27, 1999

Online Polling Offer Mixed Results

The potential for conducting public opinion surveys online is a hot topic today. With the Internet’s tremendous growth, an online poll can now compile literally tens of thousands of opinions quickly and at a fraction of the cost of traditional telephone surveys. Already many commercial websites invite people to voice their views on a range […]

May. 16, 1998

Possible Consequences of Non-Response for Pre-Election Surveys

Survey Findings Pre-election polling is tricky work. A number of unknown factors can stand in the way of accurate predictions — problems with identifying registered and likely voters, uncertainties about voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in candidate preference. But estimating voter preferences in biracial elections has been especially difficult. Pre-election surveys, even those taken just […]

Mar. 27, 1998

Conservative Opinions Not Underestimated, But Racial Hostility Missed

Introduction and Summary A unique survey research experiment finds that public opinion polls, as they are typically conducted, do not understate conservative opinions or support for the Republican Party. Conservative critics of the polls have charged that these surveys are politically biased. A methodological study by the Pew Research Center finds little evidence of this, […]

Sep. 18, 1996

Generic Congressional Measures Less Accurate In Presidential Years

The polling lesson of 1994 was learned first by the Gallup Poll in the 1950′s… that a generic measure of partisan support for House races in a nationwide poll can do a good job of estimating the popular vote for the Congressional election. Consequently, it is an excellent basis for predicting the number of seats […]

Jan. 11, 1996

Chance Error and Bill Clinton’s Political Fortunes

The big difference this week between the CNN/USA/Gallup poll and ABC/WP poll is the first major polling disparity of the ’96 campaign. Gallup’s results indicate that support for the President has tumbled sharply, while the GOP leadership is viewed more favorably than a month ago. In sharp contrast, the ABC/WP poll found no trend away […]