Barack Obama’s job approval rating has tumbled since shortly after his re-election, as the public’s economic expectations for the coming year have soured. Despite substantial public awareness of recent gains in the stock market and rebounding real-estate values, the percentage saying economic conditions will get worse over the next year has risen to its highest point in nearly eight years.

Obama’s job approval measure has fallen eight points since December, from 55% to 47%. His rating is comparable to George W. Bush’s (45%) at the same point early in his second term and is much lower than Bill Clinton’s 60% rating in February 1997.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 13-17 among 1,501 adults, finds that despite Obama’s lower job rating, he retains greater public confidence than congressional Republicans in dealing with the budget deficit: 53% express at least a fair amount of confidence in him to handle the budget, compared with 39% who express the same confidence in GOP leaders.

The decline in Obama’s approval rating comes at a time when the number of Americans saying that real estate prices have gone up has jumped from 25% in 2011 to 52% currently, and 71% of investors say the value of their portfolios have increased.

Yet the survey also finds that large percentages of Americans – particularly those with lower family incomes – continue to face severe economic and job-related problems. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) say they have had trouble getting or paying for medical care in the last year, while nearly as many (23%) report problems with paying their rent or mortgage. And 15% say they have been laid off or lost their job in the past year.

The share experiencing one or more of these problems is as high today as it was during the recession: Currently, 42% say they have encountered at least one of these problems, including 60% among those with annual family incomes of $30,000 or less.

When it comes to views of the national economy, most Americans do not think a recovery has taken hold. Just 27% say that the economy is recovering, while 31% say it will recover soon and 40% say it will be a long time before the economy recovers. These views have changed little over the past year.

Looking ahead, the public’s forecast for the national economy has deteriorated. A year ago, nearly three times as many Americans expected the economy to be better as worse in the next year (44% vs. 14%). Today, just a quarter (25%) expect economic conditions to be better a year from now, while nearly a third (32%) say conditions will be worse.

The market turnarounds are having a limited effect on the public’s economic outlook because they are not what affect people’s personal financial situation. When people are asked to consider the personal impact of different economic factors, just 32% say their household finances are affected a lot by real estate values, while even fewer (23%) say that the stock market has a major effect.

Instead, far more Americans say their households are affected by prices – both gas prices (64% a lot) and prices for food and consumer goods (58%). Prices are not only viewed as more important than real estate or the stock market but also the federal budget deficit and even the availability of jobs (39% each). And the news about prices is decidedly bad. The March update of the Pew Research Center’s track of what people are hearing about the economy found 74% saying the news about gas prices was mostly bad, and 52% saying the same about consumer prices.

Rising prices also now rank near the top of the public’s economic worries. Currently, 32% say the job situation is the national economic issue that worries them most, while 29% cite rising prices and 27% the federal budget deficit. Just three months ago, jobs far surpassed all other economic worries – 40% cited the job situation, 25% said the budget deficit and just 22% rising prices.

As federal spending cuts take effect and the stock market has reached record highs, the public continues to say they are hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy. Overall, 58% say they have been hearing mixed economic news; a third (33%) have been hearing mostly bad news about the economy, while just 7% say they have been hearing mostly good news. Views of economic news are little changed in recent months.

While the overall economic news picture remains mixed, a national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 7-10 among 1,006 adults, finds modest improvement in views of news about the financial markets. About a quarter (23%) say they are hearing mostly good news about markets, up from 18% in February. Nonetheless, more (29%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about financial markets; 43% report hearing mixed news.

Meanwhile, impressions of news about gas prices have turned sharply negative. Nearly three-quarters (74%) say they have been hearing mostly bad news about gas prices, just 4% have been hearing mostly good news and 20% have heard mixed news. About a month ago, 53% said they had been hearing mostly bad news about gas prices. Negative impressions of news about gas prices have risen across nearly all demographic groups.

News about Economic Sectors

Aside from news about financial markets and gas prices, the public’s perceptions of news about other economic sectors, including the job situation, have shown little change.

Far more continue to say they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation (45%) than mostly good news (15%); four-in-ten (40%) say they have been hearing mixed news. Opinion is almost identical to that measured one month ago.

Views of news about consumer prices also remain gloomy. About half (52%) say the news they have been hearing about prices for food and consumer goods has been mostly bad, 40% say they have been hearing mixed news; very few (6%) say they have been hearing mostly good news about prices. Opinions are little changed from February.

Impressions of real estate news are more positive when compared with views of news about jobs and prices. Overall, about as many have been hearing mostly good news about real estate values (24%) as mostly bad (23%); 46% have been hearing mixed news. Views of news about real estate values are about the same as they were in February, but are improved from late last year.

Modest Improvement in Financial News

Views of news about financial markets are modestly better than last month, but have shown more marked improvement since December. At that time, just 10% said they were hearing mostly good news about markets; in February, 18% reported hearing mostly good news and that figure has risen to 23% in the current survey.

Since December, there has been a 19-point jump in positive views of news about financial markets among those with family incomes of $75,000 or more (from 13% to 32%). The rise has been comparable among college graduates (from 13% to 33%). There has been less change in opinions among those with family incomes of less than $30,000 (seven-point increase in share hearing mostly good news) and those without a college degree (10 points).

Positive impressions of financial market news are especially high among the small share of Americans (14% of the public) who say they were following news about the stock market very closely last week. Nearly half (47%) of those following the stock market very closely say they have been hearing mostly good news about financial markets, compared with just 19% of those who have been following the stock market less closely.

The Week’s News

News about the condition of the U.S. economy and the government spending cuts that began taking effect March 1 were the public’s two top stories last week. Overall, 35% said they followed economic news very closely; 31% followed news about the spending cuts very closely. Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to follow news about the automatic federal spending cuts.

The public paid far less attention to Catholic cardinals meeting in Rome to select a new pope (14% very closely) and reports about the U.S. stock market (14% very closely). And just 10% paid very close attention to the death of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

While many Americans may be resigned to seeing automatic spending cuts in the budget sequester go into effect, the public is concerned about the potential impact of the reductions. A new national survey by the Pew Research Center and The Washington Post, conducted Feb. 21-24 among 1,000 adults, finds that most say the budget sequester would have a major effect on the economy as well as on the U.S. military. And by more than three-to-one (62%-18%), the public sees the impact on the economy as mostly negative rather than mostly positive.

But signs of public fatigue after a series of fiscal crises remain apparent. Just days before automatic federal spending cuts are set to take place, only a quarter are following the issue very closely. By comparison, four-in-ten were closely tracking the fiscal cliff debate in December a full month before the deadline.

And a Pew Research Center/USA TODAY survey just last week found 40% willing to see the sequester’s cuts take hold rather than having them delayed.

Yet the new survey finds six-in-ten-ten (60%) saying automatic federal spending cuts would have a major effect on the U.S. economy and nearly as many (55%) say the same for the U.S. military. Fewer (45%) say the cuts would have a major impact on the federal budget deficit, while just (30%) think their own personal finances would be affected in a major way.

And while earlier polls have found Republicans and Democrats offering different solutions to the nation’s budget problems, there is substantial partisan agreement that the sequester will do more economic harm than good. Roughly six-in-ten Republicans, Democrats and independents alike say the sequester will have a major effect on the nation’s economy, and by overwhelming margins all agree that the effect will be negative, not positive.

Fewer See Personal Finances Affected

Public views of the sequester’s potential impact on the nation’s economy are comparable to how they viewed the fiscal cliff late last year. However, unlike the fiscal cliff, which included potential tax increases, far fewer say the looming spending cuts would have a major impact on their personal finances.

In December of last year, 64% said automatic spending cuts and tax increases would have a major effect on the economy and by a 60% to 19% margin, more thought the economic impact of going over the fiscal cliff would be mostly negative rather than mostly positive. Today, opinion about the economic impact of pending federal spending cuts is nearly identical: 60% say there would be major economic effects; and by more than three-to-one the effects are seen as negative.

By contrast, just 30% say sequester will have a major impact on their own personal finances. In December, 2012, 43% thought going over the fiscal cliff would have a major effect on their finances.

Even with just days until the sequester deadline, relatively few Americans are paying close attention to the issue. Only a quarter (25%) say they are following news about automatic federal spending cuts very closely. By comparison, 40% were following news about the pending fiscal cliff very closely in early December, several weeks before the Jan. 1 deadline. Interest in budget deficit debates was similarly high (38% very closely) in the summer of 2011, in the weeks leading up to the debt limit agreement.

Similarly, just 18% say they understand what would happen if the cuts take place “very well.” In December of 2012, 28% said they understood the fiscal cliff’s effect very well. In the current survey, partisans are about equally likely to say they have been following sequester news and that they understand the issue very well.

Who Would Be to Blame?

More continue to say Republicans in Congress (45%), rather than President Obama (32%), would be more to blame if an agreement to prevent automatic spending cuts is not reached before the deadline; 13% volunteer that they think both would be equally to blame. Opinion is about the same as in a Pew Research Center/USA TODAY survey conducted a week ago.

In December of 2012, a 53%-majority said Republicans in Congress would be to blame if an agreement on the fiscal cliff was not reached, just 27% said Obama would be more to blame.

In the current survey, about as many independents say Republicans in Congress (39%) as President Obama (32%) would be more to blame if an agreement on spending cuts is not reached. A week ago, independents blamed Republicans in Congress by a somewhat wider margin (47%-29%); and in December, 52% of independents would have blamed Republicans more for going over the fiscal cliff, compared with 21% who would have blamed Obama.

Low-Income More Likely to Expect Hit to Personal Finances

Those in households earning less than $30,000 a year are especially likely to say automatic federal spending cuts would have a major effect on their personal finances. Nearly four-in-ten (39%) say this, compared with 27% of those earning $30,000-$74,999 and just 21% of those making over $75,000 a year.

College graduates are less likely to say their own personal finances would be majorly affected (22%) than are those with some college experiences (33%) and those with no college experience (34%).

As Barack Obama begins his second term in office, the public is hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy, as it has for much of the past four years. Views of news about real estate values and financial markets have improved and are as positive as they have been in the last four years. But these relative bright spots are counterbalanced by persistently negative views of news about gas prices and prices for food and consumer goods.

For the first time, as many say they are hearing mostly good news (25%) as bad news (24%) about real estate values; the remainder (40%) says the news is mixed. In 2009, far more saw the news about real estate as bad than good and the balance worsened considerably in 2010 and 2011.
The latest survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 31-Feb. 3 among 1,000 adults, finds that perceptions of news about financial markets have become more positive since the end of last year. Nonetheless, more say the news about the financial markets is mostly bad (28%) than mostly good (18%); 44% say the news is a mix of good and bad. The job situation also is viewed less negatively: 42% say the news about jobs is mostly bad, the lowest percentage in nearly a year and far lower than the 71% who viewed job news negatively in June 2009.

By contrast, views of news about prices for food and consumer goods remain broadly negative and have shown no improvement over Obama’s first term. Half (50%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about consumer prices; just 7% say they are hearing mostly good news. In June 2009, shortly after Obama took office, impressions of news about prices were less negative (39% mostly bad news vs. 9% mostly good news).

By a 53%-8% margin more say they are hearing mostly bad news about gas prices than mostly good news. The percentage hearing mostly bad news about gas prices has jumped 11 points since December and 22 points since July.

There have been wide swings in perceptions of news about gas prices – and other economic sectors – over the past four years. For instance, over a four-month period last year, between March and July, the percentage viewing news about gas prices as mostly bad fell 54 points, from 85% to 31%.

Opinions about job news improved both last spring and the year before, but subsequently declined. In March 2012, for instance, 38% said job news was mostly bad. In June, that figure rose to 55%, before declining in the fall. Currently, 42% say job news is mostly bad, 12% say it is mostly good, while 43% see it as mixed.

Views of Economic News

Overall impressions of economic news continue to be mixed: 59% say they have been hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy, 28% say they have been hearing mostly bad news while 10% say they have been hearing mostly good news.

That is little changed since January, though views of economic news are somewhat more positive than last summer. In August, 41% said economic news was mostly bad, 13 points higher than the current figure.

For the most part, however, opinions about economic news remain mixed as they have for much of Obama’s presidency. But during his first months in office, perceptions were much more negative: in February 2009, 60% said news about the economy was mostly bad, 37% said it was mixed and just 2% said news about the economy was mostly good.

Public Closely Following Gun Control Debate

Debate over gun control in the U.S. was the public’s top story last week, with 42% following news about the gun debate very closely. Interest was as high last week as it was in the Jan. 17-20, 2013 survey, conducted shortly after Obama announced proposals for strengthening gun laws (43% very closely). Equal percentages of Republicans and Democrats say they followed news about the gun control debate very closely (49% each); fewer independents followed the story (32% very closely). Interest in the gun debate outpaced interest in economic news (33% very closely) as well as interest in news about immigration policy (23% very closely), a hostage situation in Alabama (20% very closely), and the Super Bowl (18%).

In the previous week’s survey (conducted Jan. 24-27), cold winter weather topped the public’s news agenda: 37% followed news about winter weather very closely, compared with far fewer who followed Obama’s inauguration (24%) or discussions over the federal budget deficit and national debt (23%). Democrats were much more likely to follow Obama’s inauguration very closely (41%) than were Republicans (12%). Partisans were equally likely to follow news about Hillary Clinton testifying about the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya.

The Democrats are in a strong position with the public as they engage in negotiations to find a solution to the fiscal cliff crisis. Barack Obama’s first post-reelection job approval rating has risen to 55%, up five points since July and 11 points since the start of the year. Obama’s job rating is markedly higher than George W. Bush’s first job measure (48%) after he won reelection in 2004.

When it comes to the reaching an agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff, 55% say Obama is making a serious effort to work with Republicans. But just 32% say Republican leaders are making a serious effort to work with Obama on a deficit deal.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 5-9 among 1,503 adults, finds that the current problems for the GOP run deep. Just 25% approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are doing their jobs, while 40% approve of Democratic leaders’ job performance. And the GOP’s lead negotiator, House Speaker John Boehner, is viewed more unfavorably (40%) than favorably (28%).

By a 53% to 33% margin, the public sees the Republican Party, rather than the Democratic Party, as “more extreme in its positions.” Democrats, on the other hand, are seen as “more willing to work with leaders from the other party” by roughly two-to-one (53% vs. 27%).

Americans have long felt that deficit reduction should be achieved with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, and as the debate intensifies, this consensus is only growing. Nearly three-quarters (74%) say the best way to reduce the deficit is by both cutting major programs and increasing taxes, up from 69% in September and just 60% in July 2011 when the debate focused on raising the debt ceiling. Just 11% say the focus should mostly be on program cuts and 7% say the focus should be mostly on tax increases.

However, while the public endorses a balanced approach to deficit reduction, majorities continue to oppose making cuts in federal funding for several specific programs, including education (77% disapprove), roads and transportation (67%), programs to aid low-income Americans (58%) and military defense (55%). And majorities also disapprove of gradually raising the retirement age for Medicare and Social Security (56% each).

In fact, the only deficit reduction proposals that garner more support than opposition – among 12 items tested – are those that affect higher income Americans, either directly or indirectly. Of the 12, by far the most widely supported option is raising taxes on incomes over $250,000; fully 69% approve of that proposal. Narrow majorities also favor limiting the deductions a taxpayer can claim (54% approve) and raising the tax rate on investment income (52%).

There is more support for an overall cap on tax deductions than for a limit on the tax deduction for home mortgage interest: opinion runs against limiting the mortgage deduction (41% approve, 52% disapprove), but in favor of a more general deduction limit as some have proposed (54% approve, 40% disapprove).

While the nation’s budget deficit may be the focus in Washington, the public continues to view the job situation as the most worrisome national economic issue. Four-in-ten (40%) say the job situation is the top economic worry, while 25% say the federal budget deficit. These views have changed little since March.

Although the public expresses doubts about the Republican Party’s leadership and approach to the current discussion, the GOP still engenders about as much confidence as the Democrats on the public’s top two economic worries – jobs and the deficit. But Democrats hold significant leads on all other domestic issues tested, including education, energy, health care and Social Security, as well as being seen as the party better able to manage the federal government by a 45% to 36% margin.

And there has been no improvement in the Republican Party’s image over the past year. The job approval rating of Republican congressional leaders, which fell to just 22% in August of 2011 after the debt ceiling debate, stands virtually unchanged at 25% today. Meanwhile, the job rating for both Democratic leaders in Congress (now 40% up from 29% in August 2011) and Obama (55% up from 43%) have rebounded by double-digits.

The recovery in Obama’s job approval ratings is particularly notable; other than a brief spike following the killing of Osama bin Laden, Obama’s approval has not been significantly above 50% since September of his first year in office.

And this corresponds with a less sour assessment of the economy. While few say the economy is in good shape, the number describing economic conditions as poor stands at 35%, the lowest since January 2008. And while only 22% believe that plenty of jobs are available, that is up from 10% in early 2010, and the highest since 2008. However, while current conditions appear slightly better, expectations for the future have taken a turn for the worse. The share who think economic conditions will be worse a year from now has risen to 25%, a four year high.

Partisanship is a factor in the changing views of the economy, particularly the public’s less positive economic outlook. Republicans, who no doubt were stung by Obama’s victory last month and are deeply pessimistic about progress toward a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff, have an increasingly negative economic outlook.

Nearly half of Republicans (47%) say the economy will be worse a year from now than it is today. In January, just 19% expected national conditions to worsen. Economic expectations among Democrats and independents are little changed from the start of this year.

A Pew Research Center/Washington Post poll last week found that 69% of Republicans said Obama and congressional Republicans will not reach a budget agreement by the Jan.1 deadline. By contrast, most Democrats (55%) predicted that the two sides would be able to reach an agreement in time.

Republicans’ deepening gloom – about the economy and the fiscal cliff – appears to have colored their overall expectations for the coming year. Fully 69% say 2013 will be worse than 2012; that compares with just 9% of Democrats and 38% of independents. Last January, just 37% of Republicans said the year ahead would be worse than the year that had just passed.

Meanwhile, there has been an across the board rise in the number saying that the country is more politically divided than it was in the past. Currently, 80% view the country as more politically divided – the highest percentage ever in a Pew Research Center survey. Nearly identical percentages of Democrats (82%), Republicans (81%) and independents (80%) say the country is more politically divided.

And 60% now say the people they know also are more politically divided. That is higher than the percentages saying this shortly after Obama first won the presidency (47% in January 2009) and Bush won his second term (53% in December 2004). In the current survey, majorities of Republicans (67%), independents (60%) and Democrats (58%) say the people they know are more divided over politics than in the past.

Other Findings

Military’s Ratings Still Strong. Favorable ratings for the military – and military leaders – remain strong despite the recent scandal involving former Gen. David Petraeus. More than eight-in-ten (83%) express a favorable opinion of the military while 71% have a favorable view of military leaders. Both measures are little changed from past years.

Views of Supreme Court Still Divided. The partisan differences in opinions about the Supreme Court that emerged after its ruling on the 2010 health care law remain evident. About six-in-ten Democrats (62%) have a favorable opinion of the court, compared with 44% of Republicans. In April, before its July ruling upholding most of the law, there were no significant differences in views of the court.

Mixed Awareness of Fiscal Cliff. A majority (57%) knows that the fiscal cliff involves automatic spending cuts and tax increases and 70% know that nearly all taxpayers – not just those with high incomes – would be affected. But just 38% know that if the spending cuts go into effect, the military would be most affected.

With Washington making little apparent progress in efforts to avoid going over the “fiscal cliff,” public opinion about the situation has changed little over the past three weeks.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted Nov. 29-Dec. 2 among 1,003 adults, finds continued pessimism over prospects for a deficit agreement.

Four-in-ten (40%) expect that the president and congressional Republicans will reach a deal by Jan. 1 to prevent automatic tax increases and spending cuts from taking effect; 49% say they will not. If no deal is reached, far more say congressional Republicans would be more to blame (53%) than President Obama (27%). These opinions are virtually unchanged since early November.

Democrats continue to be much more optimistic about prospects for a fiscal cliff compromise than either Republicans or independents. A majority of Democrats (55%) expect Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement before Jan. 1 to prevent the automatic tax increases and spending cuts. Just 37% of independents and 22% of Republicans say an agreement will be reached.

Most Americans feel like they have only a dim understanding of what might happen if the automatic spending cuts and tax increase go into effect. Just 28% say they understand the consequences very well, while 29% understand them fairly well. These impressions also have changed little over the past three weeks.

Nonetheless, the public continues to see dire consequences – both for the nation’s economy and themselves – if the government goes over the fiscal cliff. While more say the nation’s economy (64%) than their own finances (43%) would be greatly affected, roughly six-in-ten say the impact would be negative for both the economy generally (60%) and their own personal finances (61%).

Democrats More Optimistic about Agreement

Republicans and Democrats continue to have starkly different expectations for the negotiations aimed at forestalling the automatic spending cuts and tax increases. Fully 69% of Republicans and 52% of independents say Obama and Republicans will not reach agreement in time to prevent the automatic measures from going into the effect. Yet Democrats remain optimistic – 55% predict an agreement will be reached while 36% do not.

Democrats overwhelmingly say Republicans in Congress would be more to blame if an agreement is not reached (77%). A smaller majority of Republicans (62%) say Obama should bear more of the blame. A third of Republicans (33%) say either that Republicans in Congress would be more to blame (19%) or volunteer than both sides would be equally to blame (14%). Just 16% of Democrats say Obama would be more to blame or that both sides would be equally to blame.

Fewer Young People Understand Fiscal Cliff

Overall, 57% of Americans say they have at least a fairly good understanding of what would happen if automatic spending cuts and tax increases go into effect as scheduled Jan. 1. But just 28% say they understand the consequences very well. There is no major demographic or political group in which a majority says they have a very good understanding of the possible impact of the fiscal changes.

In particular, people with lower family incomes, as well as those with less education and those younger than 30, feel like they have a dim understanding of what might happen if the spending and tax changes kick in. A majority (55%) of those with family incomes of less than $30,000 and 49% of those who have not attended college say they understand the possible implications not too well or not at all well; 54% of Americans younger than 30 say the same.

There are only modest partisan differences in how well people understand the effects of automatic spending cuts and tax increases: 61% of Republicans, 58% of Democrats and 55% of independents say they understand the impact of possible tax and spending changes very or fairly well.

Weekly News Interest

The debate in Washington over the fiscal cliff is the public’s top story this week: 40% paid very close attention to news about the debate over the automatic spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect Jan. 1 unless the president and Congress act.

Only about half as many (21%) followed news about another Washington story very closely – the debate over whether U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice should become secretary of state. Notably, there are only slight partisan differences in interest in the debate over Rice. A quarter of Republicans (25%), 21% of Democrats and 18% of independents followed this story very closely.

Three foreign stories attracted less public interest than news about Susan Rice or the fiscal cliff. Just 15% of Americans say they followed news about violence in Syria very closely; about as many very closely tracked news about political turmoil and protests in Egypt (14%) and the debate at the U.N. over the Palestinian territories (also 14%).

As the president and congressional leaders begin negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff” deadline at the end of the year, there is widespread public concern about the possible financial consequences. More say the automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January would have a major effect on the U.S. economy than on their own finances. But nearly identical majorities say the effect of the changes would be mostly negative for the economy (62%) and their personal financial situation (60%).

The public is skeptical that President Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement by the end of the year to avoid the fiscal cliff. About half (51%) say the two sides will not reach an agreement, while just 38% say they will. If no deal is reached, more say that congressional Republicans would be more to blame than President Obama (53% vs. 29%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted Nov. 8-11, 2012, among 1,000 adults finds sharp partisan divisions over prospects for a deal to avoid the fiscal measures from automatically taking effect.

Republicans are particularly skeptical: By a 66%-25% margin more think an agreement will not be reached. By comparison, Democrats are about as likely to expect a deal to be made (47%), as not (40%). Among independents, 51% do not think President Obama and Republicans and in Congress will come to an agreement, while 37% think this will happen.

If an agreement is not reached, 85% of Democrats and 53% of independents say that Republicans in Congress would be more to blame. About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say that if an agreement is not reached, President Obama would be more to blame.

Impressions of Fiscal Cliff

While debate over the fiscal cliff is the dominant issue in Washington, many Americans say they do not fully understand the consequences of the tax and spending measures taking effect. Only about quarter (26%) say they understand very well what would happen if the automatic spending cuts and tax increases were to go into effect in January; 32% say they understand the effect of these changes fairly well. About four-in-ten (42%) say they understand the impact of these measures not too well (23%) or not at all well (17%).

There are only slight partisan differences in percentages saying they understand the consequences of the fiscal cliff: 64% of Republicans and 61% of Democrats say they understand the possible impact of the spending and tax changes. That compares with 53% of independents.

Those who say they understand the potential impact of the automatic spending cuts and tax increases either very or fairly well are more likely to say there will be a major impact on the U.S. economy (75%) and their own personal finances (48%) than are those who understand the issue not too well or not at all well (58% major impact on economy, 38% major impact on personal finances).

The election is the public’s top news story this week: Fully 60% say they followed news about the presidential election very closely. That is the same as the percentage tracking election news during the week that Obama was elected president four years ago (60%).

Nearly half (46%) followed news about the impact of Hurricane Sandy very closely, down slightly from 53% a week prior.

Interest in news about the fiscal cliff nearly equals interest in news about the economy. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) followed news about the debate in Washington over the possible spending cuts and tax increases very closely; 41% paid very close attention to economic news. In July, just 23% followed news about the possible tax and spending changes very closely.

Partisan Divide in Views of Fiscal Cliff

Republicans and Democrats take somewhat different views on the effect automatic spending cuts and tax increases would have on the economy and their own personal finances.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say there would be a major effect on the economy (78% vs. 64%) as well as on their own personal finances (54% vs. 39%).

In addition, 79% of Republicans say the effect on the economy would be negative and 74% see a negative impact on their own personal finances. By comparison, Democrats express less concern: 50% say the economic effect of automatic spending cuts and tax increases would be mostly negative, and 52% say the same about the effect on their personal finances.

Americans are hearing less negative news about the nation’s economy than they were just a month ago, and perceptions of news about other economic sectors – notably, the job situation – have improved as well.

Most Americans continue to hear a mix of good and bad news about the economy (62%), but the share hearing mostly bad news has dipped from 35% in September to 28% this month. The percentage hearing mostly good news is essentially unchanged (8%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7, 2012, among 1,006 adults, finds that the percentage hearing mostly bad news about the job situation has declined 10 points since September – from 52% to 42% – and 13 points since August. Most of the interviewing was conducted after the jobs report on Oct. 5, which showed that unemployment had fallen below 8% for the first time since early 2009.

The survey also finds fewer Americans are hearing mostly bad news about financial markets, real estate values and food and consumer prices. Last month, far more Americans said news about financial markets was mostly bad than mostly good (37% vs. 14%); 41% said the news about financial markets was mixed.

Currently, 26% say news about financial markets is mostly bad while 16% say it is mostly good. The percentage saying the news is a mix of good and bad has increased to 50%.

Similarly, the balance of opinion about real estate news has improved substantially since September. Currently 32% say news about real estate values is mostly bad, 23% say it is mostly good and 38% say it is mixed. Last month, negative perceptions of news about real estate values surpassed positive perceptions by about two-to-one (43% to 20%).

However, perceptions of news about gas prices remain overwhelmingly negative and are virtually unchanged since September. In the new survey, 72% say they are hearing mostly bad news about gas prices.

And while views of news about food and consumer prices have improved since September, 51% say the news about this sector is mostly bad.

Views of Job News: 2009-2012

Views of news about the job situation now approach their most positive levels in more than three years of Pew Research Center surveys. Currently, 17% say news about the job situation is mostly good, 42% say it mostly bad, while 40% see the news as mixed. In March of this year, there were similar perceptions of jobs news (17% mostly good, 38% mostly bad, 42% mixed).

Views of news about the job situation are markedly better today than at comparable points in past years since 2009. In November 2009, 68% said news about jobs was mostly bad; views were about as negative in September 2010 (65%) and November 2011 (64%).

Republicans Less Negative

A month ago, partisan differences in views of economic news reached record levels. Those differences, while still substantial, have narrowed since September as Republican views of economic news have improved both generally, and across most specific sectors.

Currently, about half (49%) of Republicans say economic news is mostly bad, down from 60% a month ago. Just 13% of Democrats say economic news is mostly bad, which is virtually unchanged since September. Independents’ views also are little changed (36% mostly bad in September, 29% currently).

Perceptions of job news have become less negative across partisan lines since last month. Nonetheless, far more Republicans (64%) than independents (43%) and Democrats (26%) say news about the job situation is mostly bad.

Notably, as many Democrats now say news about the job situation is mostly good (26%) as mostly bad (26%); 47% say it is a mix of good and bad. A month ago, 34% said job news was mostly bad, 18% said it was mostly good and 45% said it was mixed.

Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. Currently, Obama is favored by a 50% to 43% margin among registered voters nationwide. Obama has led by at least a slim margin in every poll this year, and there is no clear trend in either candidate’s support since Romney wrapped up the GOP nomination.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters, finds that Romney has not seized the advantage as the candidate best able to improve the economy. In fact, he has lost ground on this issue over the past month.

The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act appears to have had little effect on the 2012 race. But the decision has had a substantial impact on views of the court itself.

About half of Americans (51%) express a favorable opinion of the court, while 37% have an unfavorable view, up eight points since April and the highest percentage expressing an unfavorable opinion in a trend dating to 1985. The more negative view of the court is largely being driven by Republicans: Three months ago, Republicans viewed the Supreme Court favorably by a 56% to 25% margin. Today, they view the court unfavorably by a 51% to 38% margin.

The presidential campaign’s dynamics have changed little in recent months, despite the court’s high-profile health care ruling, a series of subpar job reports and increased campaign activity on the part of both candidates. Independent voters remain evenly divided, 46% support Romney while 45% back Obama. Nearly identical majorities of Democrats (88%) and Republicans (89%) support their party’s candidate. Obama’s lead arises from the Democratic Party’s continuing advantage in party identification among registered voters.

While Romney has nearly uniform support from his base, he continues to struggle in building enthusiasm. Just 34% of Romney voters support him strongly, compared with 64% of Obama’s backers. Yet this lack of enthusiasm does not mean that Republican voters are disengaged. Seven-in-ten Romney supporters say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election, compared with 62% of Obama supporters. This gap has remained consistent throughout the year.

The electorate remains deeply unhappy with the way things are going in the country. Just 28% of registered voters say they are satisfied with national conditions, while two-thirds (67%) are dissatisfied, which is largely unchanged from recent months.

The poor job reports have not gone unnoticed by the public: 51% say they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation, and 40% say the overall economic news is mostly bad. However, these evaluations are no worse than they were a month ago, and are not having a negative effect on impressions of Obama’s performance. At 50%, his current job approval rating is actually up slightly from 47% last month and in positive territory for the first time since March.

The job situation remains the number-one issue for voters in this campaign. Neither candidate has a clear advantage on this issue: 46% say Romney and 42% say Obama can do a better job improving the job situation.

More generally, Mitt Romney has lost ground over the past month on the issue of the economy. The eight-point advantage he held in June as the candidate better able to improve the economy has now flipped, with 48% saying Obama can better improve economic conditions, while 42% favor Romney.

Of 12 issues tested, Romney is seen as stronger than Obama on only one – reducing the federal budget deficit – while Obama has the edge on eight. By two-to-one (60%-30%) Obama is seen as the candidate who would better deal with the problems of poor people. By a 50% to 36% margin, more voters say Obama better reflects their view on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Obama also holds 12-point leads as the candidate better able to defend against terrorist attacks and deal with the nation’s energy problems.

Other Key Findings

Health Care Remains a Secondary Issue.  The proportion of voters saying that the issue of health care will matter most in their vote has increased very little in the wake of the court’s decision upholding the 2010 law. Just 22% rate health care as their top issue, largely unchanged from the 19% who said this last month.

Independents View Both Parties Unfavorably. For the first time in the past four election cycles, majorities of independent voters view both parties unfavorably: 57% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 62% view the GOP unfavorably.

Public Sees Better News on Gas Prices. While news about the job situation is viewed negatively, the public is more upbeat about news about gas prices. Currently, as many say they are hearing mostly good news about gas prices as mostly bad news (31% each). In March, fully 85% said news about gas prices was mostly bad; just 2% said it was mostly good.

Less than five months before Election Day, voters are not as engaged with the presidential campaign as they were at this point four years ago, when interest in the campaign reached record levels. But voter engagement today generally equals or surpasses levels from the four campaigns prior to 2008, indicating that 2012 could be another relatively high turnout election.

Two-thirds of registered voters say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, which is down slightly from 2008 but higher than in any campaign from 1992 through 2004. Interest in election news, also lower than four years ago, surpasses interest in all other campaigns since 1992.

The percentage of registered voters who say they are more interested in politics than they were four years ago, which hit an all-time high in June 2008, is down sharply since then. Even so, the 48% who say they are now more interested in politics is identical to the number saying this in 2004 – and higher than the numbers expressing comparatively greater interest in politics than in 2000 and 1996.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 7-17 among 2,013 adults, including 1,563 registered voters, finds that the contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is shaping up to be a close one. Not only is the horserace nearly even – 50% of registered voters currently support Obama or lean toward him, while 46% support or lean toward Romney – but each party holds distinctly different advantages.

Republicans hold the edge on several turnout measures, in contrast to 2008 when Democrats had leads – some quite substantial – on nearly every indicator. More Republican voters than Democratic voters are giving quite a lot of thought to the election (73% of Republicans vs. 66% of Democrats) and paying very close attention to election news (45% vs. 37%). In 2008, Democrats held leads on both interest measures, the first time that had occurred in campaigns dating to 1992.

Moreover, GOP voters are more likely than Democrats to say it really matters who wins the 2012 election (72% vs. 65%). Four years ago, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say it really mattered who prevailed.

Yet Democrats are more enthusiastic about their candidate. Most Obama backers support him strongly, while most Romney voters support him only moderately. Similarly, Democrats are more satisfied with the choice of candidates than are Republicans: 68% of Democratic voters say they are satisfied with the field compared with 60% of Republican voters. This is a smaller gap than at this point in 2008, when 74% of Democrats and just 49% of Republicans were satisfied with the field. However, the GOP led in candidate satisfaction during both of George W. Bush’s successful campaigns in 2000 and 2004.

Presidential Horserace Narrows

Voter preferences are more closely divided between Obama and Romney than they were in May, when Obama led Romney by seven points (49% to 42%). Currently, 50% favor Obama while 46% back Romney. Yet it is notable that in eight general election matchups since last October, Romney has never led Obama.

And Obama’s strong support nearly doubles Romney’s – 30% of registered voters back him strongly compared with just 17% who support Romney strongly. Obama’s advantage in strong support is about as large today as it was over John McCain in June 2008 (28% to 14%).

However, Romney’s deficit in strong support does not appear to be hurting him. While Romney’s supporters are less positive about him, they are as committed to vote for him as Obama voters are committed to vote for the president. This may reflect the fact that more Republicans than Democrats say it really matters who wins the election. Fully 91% of Romney supporters have an unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama, with 53% offering a very unfavorable assessment.

Romney Leads on Economy

Romney’s recent gains in the horserace have come during a period when more Americans reported hearing bad news about the economy. The current survey finds that views of national economic conditions remain abysmal. Perhaps more important, the percentage saying they expect conditions to improve over the next year has fallen 1o points, from 44% to 34%, since March.

The slide in economic optimism points to Romney’s most important advantage in the race. Nearly half of registered voters (49%) say Romney would do the best job of improving economic conditions, compared with 41% who favor Obama.

Yet Romney trails Obama by wide margins on connecting well with ordinary people, honesty and truthfulness, consistency, displaying good judgment and several other personal dimensions.

Romney’s personal favorability has risen by 12 points since March – from just 29% then to 41% today. Still, more voters have an unfavorable opinion of Romney than a favorable view (47% vs. 41%). No previous candidate in the past 20 years has been viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point in the campaign cycle.

While Obama’s image has slipped modestly since March it remains more positive than Romney’s. Half of voters have a favorable opinion of Obama (50%) and about the same percentage has an unfavorable view (48%).

Other Findings: Fall Predictions, Views of Ann Romney

• Obama Still Favored to Win.  About half of registered voters (52%) say Obama is most likely to win in November, while just 34% expect Romney to win. In March, 59% said Obama was most likely to win. Even many Romney supporters have doubts about his chances – 37% say either that Obama is most likely to win (21%), or have no opinion (16%). Just 19% of Obama supporters expect a Romney victory or have no opinion.

• Younger Voters Less Engaged. Younger voters’ engagement in politics, which rose sharply in 2008, has declined. Among voters younger than 50, 60% say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election, down from 71% in 2008. There has been no change among voters 50 and older.

• Black Engagement Remains High. Engagement among black voters, which also increased in 2008, remains high. About seven-in-ten black voters (71%) say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election and 54% are following campaign news very closely. Both measures are little changed from 2008.

• Ann Romney Not Well Known.  About half of voters (54%) have no opinion of Ann Romney. Three-in-ten (30%) view her favorably while 17% view her unfavorably.