A plurality of the public (43%) views Barack Obama’s upcoming State of the Union as about as important as past years’ addresses. About a third (32%) say Obama’s speech will be more important than those in past years, while 15% say it will be less important.

Opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union are little changed from last year or 2011. Last year, 46% expected the address to be about as important as those of past years; 36% said it would be more important and 14% said it would be less important.

These views also are in line with expectations for most of George W. Bush’s State of the Unions. The exceptions were 2002 and 2003, following the 9/11 attacks and before the Iraq war, when majorities viewed Bush’s State of the Union as more important. In 2008, when Bush gave his final State of the Union, just 19% viewed it as more important.

As in past years, there are wide partisan differences in opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union address. Far more Democrats (46%) than independents (28%) or Republicans (21%) say Obama’s speech this year will be important than those in prior years.

As Barack Obama begins his second term in office, the public is hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy, as it has for much of the past four years. Views of news about real estate values and financial markets have improved and are as positive as they have been in the last four years. But these relative bright spots are counterbalanced by persistently negative views of news about gas prices and prices for food and consumer goods.

For the first time, as many say they are hearing mostly good news (25%) as bad news (24%) about real estate values; the remainder (40%) says the news is mixed. In 2009, far more saw the news about real estate as bad than good and the balance worsened considerably in 2010 and 2011.
The latest survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 31-Feb. 3 among 1,000 adults, finds that perceptions of news about financial markets have become more positive since the end of last year. Nonetheless, more say the news about the financial markets is mostly bad (28%) than mostly good (18%); 44% say the news is a mix of good and bad. The job situation also is viewed less negatively: 42% say the news about jobs is mostly bad, the lowest percentage in nearly a year and far lower than the 71% who viewed job news negatively in June 2009.

By contrast, views of news about prices for food and consumer goods remain broadly negative and have shown no improvement over Obama’s first term. Half (50%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about consumer prices; just 7% say they are hearing mostly good news. In June 2009, shortly after Obama took office, impressions of news about prices were less negative (39% mostly bad news vs. 9% mostly good news).

By a 53%-8% margin more say they are hearing mostly bad news about gas prices than mostly good news. The percentage hearing mostly bad news about gas prices has jumped 11 points since December and 22 points since July.

There have been wide swings in perceptions of news about gas prices – and other economic sectors – over the past four years. For instance, over a four-month period last year, between March and July, the percentage viewing news about gas prices as mostly bad fell 54 points, from 85% to 31%.

Opinions about job news improved both last spring and the year before, but subsequently declined. In March 2012, for instance, 38% said job news was mostly bad. In June, that figure rose to 55%, before declining in the fall. Currently, 42% say job news is mostly bad, 12% say it is mostly good, while 43% see it as mixed.

Views of Economic News

Overall impressions of economic news continue to be mixed: 59% say they have been hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy, 28% say they have been hearing mostly bad news while 10% say they have been hearing mostly good news.

That is little changed since January, though views of economic news are somewhat more positive than last summer. In August, 41% said economic news was mostly bad, 13 points higher than the current figure.

For the most part, however, opinions about economic news remain mixed as they have for much of Obama’s presidency. But during his first months in office, perceptions were much more negative: in February 2009, 60% said news about the economy was mostly bad, 37% said it was mixed and just 2% said news about the economy was mostly good.

Public Closely Following Gun Control Debate

Debate over gun control in the U.S. was the public’s top story last week, with 42% following news about the gun debate very closely. Interest was as high last week as it was in the Jan. 17-20, 2013 survey, conducted shortly after Obama announced proposals for strengthening gun laws (43% very closely). Equal percentages of Republicans and Democrats say they followed news about the gun control debate very closely (49% each); fewer independents followed the story (32% very closely). Interest in the gun debate outpaced interest in economic news (33% very closely) as well as interest in news about immigration policy (23% very closely), a hostage situation in Alabama (20% very closely), and the Super Bowl (18%).

In the previous week’s survey (conducted Jan. 24-27), cold winter weather topped the public’s news agenda: 37% followed news about winter weather very closely, compared with far fewer who followed Obama’s inauguration (24%) or discussions over the federal budget deficit and national debt (23%). Democrats were much more likely to follow Obama’s inauguration very closely (41%) than were Republicans (12%). Partisans were equally likely to follow news about Hillary Clinton testifying about the attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya.

In the last four national elections, generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006.

The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. Millennial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a matchup against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate who has run the strongest against Obama in many polls. By contrast, Silent generation voters are solidly behind Romney.

In between the youngest and the oldest voters are the Baby Boom generation and Generation X. Both groups are less supportive of Obama than they were in 2008 and are now on the fence with respect to a second term for the president.

One of the largest factors driving the current generation gap is the arrival of diverse and Democratic-oriented Millennials. Shaped by the politics and conditions of the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush presidencies, this group holds liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues.

In contrast, the Silent generation – whose members reached adulthood between the late 1940s and early 1960s and now make up over 80% of Americans age 65 and older – has held relatively conservative views on social issues and the role of government for most of their lives. Their growing unease, and even anger, about the direction of the country in recent years has moved them further toward the GOP, largely erasing the Democratic Party’s advantage in affiliation.

While the political divides between young and old are deep, there are potential fissures at both ends of the age spectrum. Millennials continue to support Obama at much higher levels than older generations. But Obama’s job ratings have fallen steeply among this group, as well as among older generations, since early 2009. Perhaps more ominously for Obama, Millennials are much less engaged in politics than they were at this stage in the 2008 campaign.

In contrast, Silents – particularly those who affiliate with or lean to the Republican Party – are far more engaged in the presidential campaign than they were at this point in the contest four years ago. While Silents support Romney over Obama by a wide margin, they express highly unfavorable views of both the GOP and the Democratic Party.

Silents prefer the Republican Party on most issues, with Social Security a notable exception. Silents are about evenly divided over whether the Democrats or the Republicans can better handle Social Security. If debate over Social Security and Medicare comes to the forefront, it raises potentially significant cross pressures for Silent generation voters, who rank Social Security among the top issues affecting their 2012 vote.

Growing racial and ethnic diversity, which is concentrated among younger generations, has benefited Democrats. Race and ethnicity are strongly associated with views about government, and in no small part account for some of the greater liberalism of the younger age groups and greater conservatism of older groups.

The polling finds that older generations – Boomers and especially Silents – do not fully embrace diversity. Fewer in these groups see the increasing populations of Latinos and Asians, as well as more racial intermarriage, as changes for the better. For many Silents in particular, Obama himself may represent an unwelcome indicator of the way the face of America has changed. Feelings of “unease” with Obama, along with higher levels of anger, are the emotions that most differentiate the attitudes of Silents from those of the youngest generation.

The nation’s ongoing economic difficulties have affected all generations. But Boomers and Gen Xers are far more likely than either Silents or Millennials to have little or no confidence they will have enough money to finance their retirement. And two-thirds of Boomers ages 50 to 61 who are still working expect to delay retirement because of current economic conditions.

These are the principal findings from two major national surveys exploring generational differences in political attitudes conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (Sept. 22-Oct. 4) and the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project (Sept. 1-15). Together, these surveys interviewed 4,413 adults. They have been supplemented with data from other polling over the course of the year and analyses of census data by Pew Social & Demographic Trends.

The study provides a detailed look at the current generational dynamics of American politics. Why are Silent generation voters so angry? How have the political leanings of Baby Boomers evolved? Is the Reagan-era Generation X moving closer to the Democratic column? Will Millennials be as engaged and enthused about Obama as they were in 2008? The answers lie in understanding the broad political, social and economic changes of the past decades and how they have shaped the political leanings of these generations over time.

A Closer Look at … Older Americans

The vast majority of Americans who are 65 and older are members of the Silent generation (ages 66 to 83). They came of age in the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy years. Silents favored the Democrats at times during the 1990s, but in recent elections have strongly supported the Republicans. While they aligned more with the Democrats in the 1990s, they have become much more Republican in recent years. The Silent generation “replaced” the Greatest generation, who were more reliable Democratic voters when they constituted the bulk of the senior vote.

Silents increasingly call themselves conservative and they hold the most consistently conservative views about government, social issues and America’s place in the world. Unlike other generations that in recent years have become more supportive of smaller government, they have held conservative views about government for years.

Today, an overwhelming majority of Silents are either angry or frustrated with government. They are the generation that is most strongly disapproving of Barack Obama, for whom a majority did not vote. Silents also are the most politically energized generation, as they demonstrated in the 2010 midterms.

More often than the younger generations, Silents take the American exceptionalist view that the United States is the greatest nation in the world. But fewer older people than young people think that “America’s best days are ahead of us.”

The political discontent of the Silent generation is not economically based. A greater proportion of Silents than younger people say they are financially satisfied, and Silents are less likely to say they often do not have enough money to make ends meet.

Race is a factor in their political attitudes. Silents are the whitest of the generations and are the least accepting of the new face of America. Compared with younger generations, relatively few Silents see racial intermarriage and the growing population of immigrants as changes for the better.

As was the case in 2008, racial attitudes are associated with views of Obama and voting intentions. And while there is racial intolerance in all generations, it is more prevalent among older than younger age groups.

While Silent generation voters say they are solidly behind Obama’s Republican challengers, there are some signs of potential opportunity for the Democrats. Silents cite Social Security as often as they name jobs as their top voting issue. And while seniors tend to favor the Republican Party on most issues, they are as likely to favor the Democrats as Republicans on Social Security.

Young People

Millennials, who are 18 to 30, have voted more Democratic than older voters in the last four national elections. They came of age in the Clinton and Bush eras, and hold liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues, as well as America’s approach to foreign policy.

Just as members of the Silent generation are long-term backers of smaller government, Millennials, at least so far, hold “baked in” support for a more activist government.

Millennials have come of age professing an allegiance to the Democratic Party and profoundly little identification with the GOP. Today, half of Millennials (50%) think of themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents while just 36% affiliate with or lean toward the GOP.

Although they back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in matchups against both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, just 49% approve of his job performance, down 24 points since February 2009.

Millennials are a racially and ethnically diverse generation. Only 59% of Millennials are white non-Hispanic. They are well acquainted with changing face of America and overwhelmingly think these changes are good for the country.

The racial gap also helps explain the greater liberalism of Millennials when compared with older generations. The racial factor, however, mutes rather than explains away the ideological and partisan gaps between Millennials and older voters. For example, while 57% of all Millennials favor a bigger government with more services, just 44% of white Millennials do. But only about a quarter of whites in older generations (27%) support an activist government.

Similarly, while 61% of all Millennials back Obama in a matchup against Romney, only 49% of white Millennials do. But this compares to 37% of older whites who back the president.

For more on Millennials, see Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change, Feb. 24, 2010.

Middle-Aged Americans

Baby Boomers (ages 47 to 65) are the largest generation. They came of age under presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan.
Boomers had very little allegiance to the GOP during the 1960s and 70s, but were increasingly drawn to the Republican Party starting in the 1980s. Since then, they have tilted to the Democratic Party.

Historically, there has been an age gap within the Baby Boom generation. Older Boomers, who cast their first ballots in the Nixon elections of 1968 and 1972, have voted more Democratic than have younger Boomers who came of age under Ford, Carter and Reagan. In 2008, for example, Obama performed better among older Boomers (currently 56 to 65) than younger Boomers (47 to 55).

Boomers supported Republican candidates in 2010. Currently, they are almost as disillusioned with Obama as are Silents, yet are divided in a matchup between Obama and Romney.

In recent years, more Boomers have come to call themselves conservatives. A majority of Boomers now favors a smaller government that provides fewer services. When they were in their 20s and 3os, Boomers were more supportive of big government. Today, almost as many Boomers as Silents say they are angry with government.

Boomers’ current attitudes bear little imprint from coming of age in an era of great social change. On most social issues, their opinions generally fall between the Silents and the younger age cohorts. And many Boomers express reservations about the changing face of America.

Like younger generations, many Boomers say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation and their anxieties about retirement have increased. In a survey conducted last year, a majority of Boomers (54%) said they were in worse shape financially than they were before the recession. Today, 38% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years.

Like other generations, Boomers oppose cutting entitlement benefits in order to reduce the budget deficit. They are also part of a multi-generational majority that supports reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors with higher incomes. However, unlike Silents, Boomers oppose raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare.

Generation X, ages 31 to 46, is the in-between generation. They represent the dividing line on many issues between young and old, but they are not as Democratic and liberal as the younger Millennial generation.

Gen Xers mostly came of age politically in the Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton years. In the 1990s, they divided their loyalties between the parties. In 2000, they split their votes between George W. Bush and Al Gore; they narrowly supported Bush in 2004 and favored Obama by clear margin in 2008.

Gen Xers are less supportive of larger government than they once were. And along with other generations, their views of Obama have become more negative. Gen Xers supported GOP candidates by a small margin in 2010. Currently, as many Gen Xers favor Romney as Obama.

On a range of social issues Gen Xers take a more liberal position than do older voters. Gen Xers are more likely than both Boomers and Silents to favor gay marriage and marijuana legalization, and Gen Xers are far more comfortable with the social diversity of 21st century America.

As with Millennials and Boomers, jobs are the number one voting issue for Gen Xers. And they are increasingly anxious over their financial futures. Fully 46% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years – the highest percentage in any generation.

Entitlements: Agreement on Principles, Not Policies

The poll finds a fair amount generational agreement on entitlement issues. Majorities across generations say that the federal government does too little for older people. And there is broad agreement that it is more important to maintain current retirement benefits than to reduce the budget deficit, though that view is more widely shared among older than younger generations.

But wide generation gaps exist with respect to a number of proposed reforms to the retirement programs. Silents are lukewarm toward allowing younger workers to invest their Social Security taxes in private accounts and using their Medicare benefits to purchase private insurance. Millennials, in particular, enthusiastically embrace these proposed changes.

Moreover, Silents are more supportive than are younger generations of gradually raising the retirement age for receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits. Roughly half of Silents favor raising the retirement age for these programs; no more than four-in-ten in younger generations agree.

Generational Voting in Red and Blue

One way to look at the political leanings of generations is to sort people by the political environment when they became politically engaged. For example, not so long ago, voters 65 and older were predominantly members of the Greatest generation, most of whom came of age during FDR’s presidency and were fairly reliable supporters of Democrats even into their later years.

As recently as 2004, members of the Greatest generation supported John Kerry by a greater margin than did all voters in that election.

As the Greatest generation has mostly passed from the scene, members of the Silent generation – most of whom came of age politically during the Truman and Eisenhower presidencies – have come to make up an increasing share of voters 65 and older. They have long voted less Democratic than the Greatest generation; in both 2008 and 2010, both Truman- and Eisenhower-era Silents voted more Republican than average.

The Baby Boom is a long generation, spanning many presidencies. The oldest, who turned 18 when LBJ was president, have mostly voted with the national electorate in recent years, though they voted more Republican than average in 2008. Those Boomers who came of age when Nixon was president retained a Democratic leaning, although they have voted with the overall electorate since 2006. The youngest Boomers, who mostly came of age in the Ford and Carter years, have been one of the most reliable Republican voting groups.

Internal divisions within Generation X are even more notable. The older portion of Generation X who came of age during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush presidencies, have voted more Republican than the electorate. In contrast, younger Xers, who became active politically during the Clinton administration, have mostly voted more Democratic than average. Millennials largely came of age during George W. Bush’s presidency and have consistently voted more Democratic by large margins.

Best President in Your Lifetime?

When asked which president has done the best job in their lifetime, more respondents name Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan than any other presidents. Sizeable numbers in each of the four generational groups, including majorities of Millennials and Gen Xers, cite Clinton as either their first or second choice as the best president. Reagan matches Clinton in mentions among Baby Boomers and members of the Silent generation.

Despite the fact that many of them were quite young during Clinton’s years in office, nearly half (48%) of Millennials say Bill Clinton did the best job of any president in their lifetime. Another 12% cite him as second best. Fewer Millennials (37%) cite Obama as best or second-best. Relatively few (22%) say that George W. Bush was a favorite.

A majority of Xers also named Clinton as best (38%) or second-best (18%), while 43% cite Reagan (34% as best, 9% as second-best). Just 23% of Xers say that Obama is the best or second best president of their lifetimes; 18% cite George H. W. Bush and 14% cite George W. Bush.

Baby Boomers divide their loyalties about evenly between Clinton and Reagan, with 45% citing Reagan in either first (33%) or second (12%) place. About as many name Clinton as the best president (27%) or second-best (15%). About a quarter of Boomers (26%) cite John F. Kennedy.

Only among the Silent generation do presidents in office before Kennedy receive a significant number of mentions. But even among this older group, Clinton and Reagan are essentially tied for the top positions. Reagan is cited by 36% and Clinton by 35% as best or second-best. Kennedy is mentioned by 29%, Dwight D. Eisenhower by 17%, and Harry S Truman and Franklin D. Roosevelt are named by 11% and 12%, respectively.

Consistent with the mood of the nation all year, 2010 is closing on a down note. Fully 72% are dissatisfied with national conditions, 89% rate national economic conditions as only fair or poor, and majorities or pluralities think the country is losing ground on nine of 12 major issues.

The public is especially bearish about the federal budget deficit, the cost of living, the financial condition of Social Security and the availability of good-paying jobs. At least six-in-ten say the country is losing ground in each of these areas.

Smaller majorities say the nation is losing ground on the gap between rich and poor (58%), the ability to compete economically with other countries (55%) and the financial condition of Medicare (51%).

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 1-5 among 1,500 adults, finds only two issues where relatively small minorities say the United States is losing ground – international terrorism (25% losing ground) and environmental pollution (23%). Even in these areas, however, most Americans do not see progress being achieved; rather, pluralities say things are staying about the same as they have been.

Yet Americans’ views about how the nation is doing on several major issues have improved since December 2008, a time when Americans expressed an even more negative view of the economy than they do today. Opinions among Republicans and Democrats also have changed substantially since then, shortly before President Obama took office. On many issues, the percentage of Republicans saying the nation is losing ground has increased, while the percentage of Democrats expressing this view has declined.

This shift has been particularly dramatic in opinions about the way the health care system is working. Currently, 67% of Republicans say the country is losing ground on health care, up from 41% two years ago. Opinion among Democrats has moved as sharply in the opposite direction: 33% now say the country is losing ground, down from 67% in December 2008.

The survey finds that while the vast majority of Americans take a negative view of current economic conditions, many see recovery as a long way off. Just 17% think the economy is now recovering while 33% say recovery will occur soon. Nearly half (48%) say it will be a long time before the economy recovers, which is little changed from earlier this year.

Jobs remain the public’s primary economic concern. Nearly half (47%) cite the job situation as the economic issue that worries them most; far fewer say the federal budget deficit (19%), rising prices (15%) or problems in the financial markets (14%). (For more, see “Deficit Solutions Meet with Public Skepticism,” Dec. 9, 2010).

Perceptions about the availability of jobs, both locally among the public and in people’s line of work among those with jobs, have worsened as the unemployment rate has risen. Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) say jobs are difficult to find in their community, while just 14% say there are plenty of jobs available. In February 2008, more than twice as many (34%) said jobs were plentiful. And 65% of those working full- or part-time say jobs in their line of work are difficult to find in their community, up from 46% in early 2008.

Moreover, 46% of Americans say there has been time in the past year when they or someone in their household has been without a job and looking for work.

The survey finds that a majority of the public (57%) says it is very difficult or difficult to afford things they really want. About the same percentage said this two years ago (55%). And for many Americans, affording basic necessities remains a struggle – 51% say it is difficult to afford health care, 48% say the same about their home heating and electric bills, and 29% say it is difficult to afford food.

Looking ahead to next year, most Americans (55%) say that 2011 will be better than 2010, while 31% say the coming year will be worse. But there was even more optimism at the start of this year: In January, 67% said that 2010 would be a better year than 2009.

Imagine a future in which cancer becomes a memory, ordinary people travel in space, and computers carry on conversations like humans. Now imagine a darker future – a world beset by war, rising temperatures and energy shortages, one where the United States faces a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons.

Most Americans think that these developments and many others are likely to unfold over the next 40 years. In the public’s view, this promises to be an era of technological progress. Large majorities expect that computers will be able to carry on conversations (81% say this definitely or probably will happen) and that there will be a cure for cancer (71%). About two-thirds (66%) say that artificial arms and legs will outperform real limbs while 53% envision ordinary people traveling in space.

At the same time, most say that war, terrorism and environmental catastrophes are at least probable by the year 2050. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) see another world war as definite or probable; 53% say the same about the prospect for a major terrorist attack on the United States involving nuclear weapons. An even higher percentage (72%) anticipates that the world will face a major energy crisis in the next 40 years.

The public is evenly divided over whether the quality of the earth’s environment will improve over the next 40 years; as many say the environment is not likely to improve (50%) as say it is (47%). There continues to be a widespread belief that the earth will get warmer in the future, though the percentage expressing this view has declined by 10 points, from 76% to 66%, since 1999.

Moreover, 60% say the world’s oceans will be less healthy 40 years from now than they are today; just 32% say the oceans will be more healthy. The survey was conducted just after the April 20 explosion and fire on the Deepwater Horizon well in the Gulf of Mexico but before the full extent of the massive environmental damage caused by the oil leak became evident.

These are among the findings of a new survey of attitudes and expectations about the future, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Smithsonian magazine in conjunction with the magazine’s 40th anniversary (see “40 Things You Need to Know about the Next 40 Years“). The survey, conducted by landline and cell phones April 21-26 among 1,546 adults, was informed by a 1999 survey on the future that explored many of the same topics (see “Optimism Reigns, Technology Plays Key Role,” October 24, 1999).

Despite the current economic slump and the widespread anticipation of crises to come, most Americans remain upbeat about the future, both for themselves and the nation. Today, 64% say they are very or somewhat optimistic about life for themselves and their family over the next 40 years, while 61% are optimistic about the future of the United States. Moreover, 56% say the U.S. economy will be stronger than it is today.

Today’s recession-weary public is less sanguine about the long-term future than it was in May 1999, a time of very strong economic growth. Still, majorities across most demographic and political groups see things getting better – both for themselves and the nation – over the next four decades.

Race Relations and Health Care Expected to Improve

Thinking ahead 40 years, 68% say race relations in the United States will better, which is unchanged from the 1999 survey. And in the wake of the election of the nation’s first African American president, large majorities say that the election of a woman (89%) and Hispanic (69%) will definitely or probably occur.

Notably, far more Americans think that health care will be more affordable in the future than did so in May 1999. Currently, 50% say health care will be more affordable in 2050, while 46% say it will be less affordable. In 1999, just 36% said health care would be more affordable compared with 60% who said it would be less affordable.

While a clear majority (58%) expects the gap between rich and poor in the United States to grow by 2050, fewer people say this than did so in 1999 (69%). About a third (34%) now says the rich-poor gap will get smaller, up from 27% 11 years ago.

However, Americans are less optimistic about long-term prospects for public education than they were 11 years ago. About half (49%) say the public education system will improve by 2050, down from 66% who expressed that view in 1999.

The public expresses mixed views about America’s role in the world in 2050. On the one hand, people are divided over whether China will overtake the U.S. as the world’s main superpower – 46% say this will definitely or probably happen, while 49% say it will not. However, most Americans (53%) say that the United States will be less important in the world 40 years from now than it is today; 40% say it will be more important.

As the day of reckoning for health care reform approaches, Americans have little to cheer about. Nearly everyone (92%) gives the national economy a negative rating. Closer to home, 85% say that jobs are hard to find in their community. A majority (54%) now says that someone in their household has been without a job or looking for work in the past year, compared with 39% in February 2009. And the proportion saying they got a pay raise or a better job in the past year fell from 41% in January 2008 to 24% currently.

Public gloom about the economy and personal finances extends to opinions about the future of health care costs. Regardless of what happens with the health care bills this week, Americans expect their own health care costs to rise in the coming years. While 51% say their health care costs would increase if the proposed legislation becomes law, even more (63%) believe their health care costs will increase if no changes are made to the health care system.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 10-14 among 1,500 adults, finds that public views of the health care bills before Congress remain more negative than positive – 48% generally oppose the bills before Congress while 38% favor them. But just 18% of Americans would prefer Congress pass nothing and leave the current system as it is.

It is in this context that attitudes toward Washington are best understood. When asked for a single word that best describes their impression of Congress, “dysfunctional,” “corrupt,” “self-serving” and “inept” are volunteered most frequently. Of people offering a one-word description, 86% have something negative to say, while only 4% say something positive.

Just 12% believe that Republicans and Democrats are working together in dealing with important issues facing the country – 81% don’t think so. While more blame Republican leaders than Democratic leaders for this (by 25% to 18%), fully 27% volunteer that both are to blame. And when asked which party has higher moral and ethical standards, neither party has an advantage – 31% name the Democratic Party, 29% name the GOP, while 22% volunteer neither.

The sour public mood and disillusionment with Washington is apparent in Barack Obama’s job approval ratings as well. For the first time in Pew Research Center survey, nearly as many say they disapprove (43%) of Obama’s job performance as approve (46%). Even so, Obama’s approval rating is well above the 31% who say they approve of the job the Democratic congressional leaders are doing and the 25% who give positive job ratings to GOP leaders.

Afghanistan Opinions More Positive

Obama’s ratings for dealing with specific issues are for the most part a little lower than his overall rating, which is typically the case for presidents. Roughly four-in-ten approve of the way Obama is handling foreign policy (42%), the economy (41%) and health care (39%).

An exception to this pattern is the public’s view of his handling of the situation in Afghanistan. In the new survey, more approve (51%) than disapprove (35%) of Obama’s job performance on Afghanistan; opinion was evenly divided in December 2009, while in November more disapproved than approved. Independents (51% approve) and Republicans (42%) give Obama much higher ratings on Afghanistan than other issues.

Republicans also are more likely than Democrats to think that things are going well in Afghanistan (61% vs. 52%). But perceptions of the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan have improved overall since November. In addition, a clear majority of the public (59%) continues to say that the United States will definitely or probably succeed in achieving its goals there.

Personal Views of Obama

While the public is divided over Obama’s job performance, many Americans continue to express positive personal opinions of him. Majorities see Obama as inspiring (61%) and decisive (57%), and relatively few regard him as arrogant (35%) or detached (35%). Many also say that Obama makes them feel hopeful (54%) and proud (49%). Just 30% say that Obama makes them angry, while somewhat more (44%) say he makes them feel disappointed.

Obama’s personal ratings are less positive than they were just after his election in November 2008. The changes in opinion of him have occurred across the political spectrum. But far fewer conservative Republicans say Obama is inspiring (61% to 25%) and far more say he makes them angry (18% to 62%). There also have been substantial changes in the views of independents: In November 2008, 68% said Obama made them feel hopeful; 48% say that today. Democrats are somewhat less positive about Obama than they were just after the election, but relatively small percentages see him as arrogant, detached or disappointing.

The survey finds that since the start of the year, most of the slippage in Obama’s job approval rating has come among Democrats – particularly Democrats with lower incomes. Currently, 74% of Democrats approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, down from 84% in January. Obama’s approval rating is down 17 points over this period among Democrats with family incomes of less than $50,000 (from 83% to 66%), but is largely unchanged among those with incomes of $50,000 or more (89% to 84%).

Most Health Care Opponents Want New Bill

Opinion about the health care bills being discussed in Congress continues to be deeply split along partisan lines. Fully 81% of Republicans generally oppose the current bills while 62% of Democrats generally favor them. Far more independents still oppose (56%) than favor (32%) the health care bills.

While the current bills draw more opposition than support, opponents generally prefer that Congress begin working on a new bill (28% of the public) rather than pass nothing and leave the health care system as it is (18%).

Notably, 71% of the bills’ opponents say they expect their own health care costs will go up in coming years if the legislation is enacted – but 62% predict their costs will rise if no changes are made to the health care system. Among the supporters of the current bills, far more say their future costs will increase if nothing is done on health care (67%) than if the legislation passes (27%).

Job Problems Cut a Wide Swath

The number of Americans reporting that they or someone in their household has been without a job and looking for work in the past year has risen sharply; currently 54% say that, compared with 42% last October and 39% in February 2009.

People are experiencing other job and financial stresses at similar or slightly higher levels than in February 2009. Roughly one-in-five (21%) say they have lost their job or been laid off, while 15% say they have had their hours reduced or taken a pay cut.

Aside from job-related issues, about a quarter (26%) say they had trouble getting or paying for medical care for themselves or their family, while 24% say they have had problems making their rent or mortgage payment. Overall, 70% of Americans say they have faced one or more job or financial-related problems in the past year, up from 59% in February 2009.

Moreover, these concerns show no sign of easing in the future: 25% of those who are currently employed say it is very or somewhat likely they may be asked to take a cut in pay, 24% say it as least somewhat likely they may be laid off. Comparable proportions say it is very or somewhat likely their health care benefits (23%) or retirement benefits (22%) will be reduced or eliminated by their employer. These levels of concern are similar to February 2009.

A comprehensive new survey of racial attitudes finds that a year after Barack Obama’s election, blacks’ assessments about the state of black progress in America have improved more dramatically than at any time in the last quarter century. The poll finds an upbeat set of black views on a wide range of matters, including race relations, local community satisfaction and expectations for future black progress. But at the same time, some views on race show little change. Most blacks still have doubts about the basic racial fairness of American society.

Some of the most notable trends include:

• Nearly twice as many blacks now (39%) than in 2007 (20%) say that the “situation of black people in this country” is better than it had been five years earlier

• A majority of blacks (53%) say that life for blacks in the future will be better than it is now. In 2007, only 44% said things will be better for blacks in the future, while 21% said they will be worse.

• Most blacks join with most whites in saying that the two racial groups have grown more alike in the past decade, both in their standard of living and their core values.

• Recession not withstanding, the number of blacks who rate their personal finances as excellent or good is little changed (32% now, 27% in late 2006). During the same period, ratings among whites dropped significantly – to 35% now, from 52% then.

• Fewer than half (44%) of blacks say they are very satisfied with their community as a place to live, but this figure is higher than it was in 2007, when just 36% of blacks felt this way. Community satisfaction ratings of whites (64%), while higher than those of blacks, have not improved during the past two years.

• A majority of blacks (54%) say they believe Obama’s barrier-breaking election has improved race relations in America. A third of whites (32%) agree, while 45% say his election has made no difference to race relations.

Despite the upbeat findings from blacks on many fronts, more than eight-in-ten blacks — compared with just more than a third of whites — say the country needs to make more changes to give blacks equal rights with whites. And most remain skeptical that blacks are treated fairly by the police.

View the complete report at pewsocialtrends.org

As the current decade draws to a close, relatively few Americans have positive things to say about it. By roughly two-to-one, more say they have a generally negative (50%) rather than a generally positive (27%) impression of the past 10 years. This stands in stark contrast to the public’s recollection of other decades in the past half-century. When asked to look back on the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, positive feelings outweigh negative in all cases.

To be sure, the passage of time may affect the way people view these historical periods. For example, had we asked the public’s impression of the 1970s in December of 1979, the negatives may well have outweighed the positives.

By a wide margin, the 9/11 terrorist attacks are seen as the most important event of the decade, with Barack Obama’s election as president a distant second – even among his political supporters. And the sour view of the decade is broad-based, with few in any political or demographic group offering positive evaluations.

Happy to put the 2000s behind them, most Americans are optimistic that the 2010s will be better. Nearly six-in-ten (59%) say they think the next decade will be better than the last for the country as a whole, though roughly a third (32%) think things will be worse.

There are a number of recent changes and trends that are viewed favorably. In particular, the major technological and communications advances are viewed in an overwhelmingly positive light.

Clear majorities see cell phones, the internet and e-mail as changes for the better, and most also view specific changes such as handheld internet devices and online shopping as beneficial trends. There is greater division of opinion, however, over whether social networking sites or internet blogs have been changes for the better or changes for the worse.

Most see increasing racial and ethnic diversity as a change for the better, as well as increased surveillance and security measures and the broader range of news and entertainment options.

But the public is divided over whether wider acceptance of gays and lesbians, cable news talk and opinion shows, and the growing number of people with money in the stock market are good or bad trends. Reality TV shows are, by a wide margin, the least popular trend tested in the poll; 63% say these shows have been a change for the worse. Tattoos are also unpopular with many – 40% say more people getting tattoos is a change for the worse, though 45% say it makes no difference and 7% see it as a change for the better.

A ‘Downhill’ Decade

The breadth and depth of discontent with the current decade is reflected in the words people use to describe it. The single most common word or phrase used to characterize the past 10 years is downhill, and other bleak terms such as poor, decline, chaotic, disaster, scary, and depressing are common. Other, more neutral, words like change, fair and interesting also come up, and while the word good is near the top of the list, there are few other positive words mentioned with any frequency.

Boomers Look Back Fondly

There is no significant generational divide in impressions of the current decade: Roughly half in all age groups view the 2000s negatively, while less than a third rates the decade positively. This is in stark contrast to generational differences in views of previous decades. The 1990s are viewed far more positively by younger people – roughly two-thirds of Americans younger than 50 have a positive impression of the decade compared with fewer than half of people ages 50 and older. The 1960s, by contrast, receive generally positive ratings from people ages 50 and older, while those under 50 offer more mixed views.

The biggest generational division of opinion is in retrospective evaluations of the 1970s. Baby Boomers – most of whom are between the ages of 50 and 64 today and were between 20 and 34 in 1979 – view this decade in an overwhelmingly favorable light, with positive impressions outnumbering negative views by 48 points (59% positive vs. 11% negative). By contrast, people who were younger than 20 at the end of the 1970s – who are currently in their 30s and 40s – offer a less positive assessment; just 28% view the decade positively, 20% negatively, and 52% say neither or offer no opinion.

The decade out of the last half century with the best image right now is the 1980s. While comparable percentages offer positive evaluations of the 1980s (56%) and 1990s (57%), negative ratings for the 1980s are lower than for the 1990s (12% vs. 19%). And the balance of opinion about the 1980s is overwhelmingly positive across all age groups – with positive views outnumbering negative by more than three-to-one across the board.

Next Decade Looks Better

Most Americans (59%) think the next decade will be better than the current one for the country as a whole, and this perspective is widely shared across most political and demographic groups. But a significant minority – 32% – is of the view that things will be worse in the 2010s than in the 2000s. Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats (42% vs. 20%) to offer a pessimistic assessment of the next decade. Roughly a third (34%) of independents offer a gloomy prediction.

Generationally, Americans between the ages of 50 and 64 are the most pessimistic about the 2010s – 42% think things will be worse over the next 10 years. This compares with 30% of people under 50 and just 26% of those age 65 and older. Along religious lines, white evangelical Protestants take a far more pessimistic view of the next decade than other major religious groups. Just over half (52%) of white evangelicals predict that the coming decade will be worse than the current one, far more than the number of white mainline Protestants (29%), white Catholics (24%) or unaffiliated (28%) Americans who take this view.

9/11 the Crystallizing Event

When offered a list of six major events of the decade, just over half (53%) say that the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks were the single most important event of the decade. Trailing far behind, 16% cite Obama’s election as president, 12% the 2008 financial crisis, 6% George W. Bush’s election as president, 5% the war in Iraq, and 3% cite Hurricane Katrina.

More than a quarter (28%) of Democrats say Obama’s election was the single most important event of the decade, far more than among independents (12%) or Republicans (8%). Because of this focus on Obama’s election, fewer Democrats (43%) cite the Sept. 11 attacks as the biggest event of the decade than Republicans (60%) or independents (56%).

And while 9/11 is seen as the most important event across all age groups, opinions about the importance of other events differ in significant ways. People under age 30 are more likely than their elders to name the war in Iraq as the most important event of the decade (11% vs. 3% of those ages 30 and over). And, along with the oldest cohort, younger Americans are less likely to name 9/11 as the most important event.

Technology and Communications Changes Viewed Positively

The internet – perhaps the seminal technological development of recent decades – conti
nues to be widely seen in a favorable light. About two-thirds (65%) say the internet has been a change for the better, while just 16% say it has been a change for the worse; 11% say it hasn’t made much difference while 8% are unsure. This largely mirrors the balance of opinion at the close of the 1990s – the decade that saw the widespread adoption of the web. In 1999, 69% called the internet a change for the better and 18% called it a change for the worse.

As with most technological developments, young people and the well educated are particularly likely to embrace the internet as a change for the better. About three-quarters (76%) of young people view the web as a positive change, compared with far fewer (42%) of those ages 65 and older. Older Americans, however, are no more likely to see the internet as a change for the worse than are younger people, rather more seniors simply say it has made no difference or are unsure as to its impact.

As was the case in 1999, far more of those with a college degree say the internet has been a change for the better (82%) than do those with no college experience (52%). And the internet – like most other technological developments – is not a politicized innovation: similar majorities of Republicans (69%), Democrats (68%), and independents (63%) say the internet has been a positive change.

Email, the form of communication born from the web, is viewed as favorably as the internet itself. By an overwhelming margin, more say email has been a change for the better (65%) than say it has been a change for the worse (7%); 19% say it hasn’t made a difference. Views of email are largely unchanged from a decade ago, though there has been a slight decline in the share describing email as a change for the better. This decline has taken place largely among young people: 69% of those younger than 30 say email has been a change for the better, compared with 82% a decade ago. Very few young people – just 1% – say email has been a change for the worse, but a quarter of those who came of age in the current decade – with ever-increasing options for real-time, wireless communication – say email has not made much of a difference. In 1999, just 6% of those under 30 expressed that view.

In addition to the internet and email, cell phones are broadly embraced by the public as a change for the better. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) call cell phones a change for the better compared with just 14% who call them a change for the worse. Overall, the public’s take on cell phones is slightly better than it was ten years ago. In 1999, 22% felt that cell phones were a change for the worse – this has fallen to 14% in the current survey.

Age Gap in Views of Handheld Devices

Handheld devices such as Blackberries and iPhones are seen as a good thing by most people (56%). However, a quarter (25%) says these devices have been a change for the worse. The age gap in attitudes toward these devices is particularly wide: 72% of those under 30 consider handheld wireless devices to be a positive change, compared with just 33% of those 65 and older.

The public is ambivalent when it comes to evaluating social networking sites such as Facebook. About a third (35%) call them a change for the better, 21% say they have been a change for the worse, while 31% say social networking sites have not made much of a difference and 12% are unsure. In fact, even among young people, fewer than half (45%) say social networking sites have been a change for the better.

And when it comes to internet blogs, the plurality opinion (36%) is that the emergence of blogs has not made much of a difference. Slightly fewer (29%) call them a change for the better, while 21% think they have been a change for the worse.

Greater Diversity Seen as Positive Change

A majority (61%) of the public says that the increasing racial and ethnic diversity in the United States has been a change for the better; 25% say increasing diversity has not made much difference and only 9% say it has been a change for the worse. However, opinion that increased diversity has been a change for the better is more widely held among some demographic groups than others.

Older people are less likely to believe that increased diversity has been a change for the better; about half (49%) of people ages 65 and older say this has been a change for the better compared with about two-thirds (66%) of those younger than 50. More college graduates (72%) than those with a high school education or less (54%) think increased diversity is a change for the better.

Divisions over Acceptance of Gays

There is far less agreement about the increasing acceptance of gays and lesbians. Overall, 38% say this has been a change for the better, 28% a change for the worse and 28% say it has made no difference. As with other public opinion questions about homosexuality, there is a substantial divide between how younger and older Americans view this issue.

By greater than two-to-one, those younger than 50 see increased acceptance of gays and lesbians as a change for the better (45%), not worse (19%) By contrast, people ages 65 and older see this as a change for the worse, not the better, by more than two-to-one (46% to 21%).

There is a substantial gender divide on this issue: more women than men think increased acceptance of gays and lesbians has been a change for the better (45% vs. 31%). And this gender gap spans generations. Younger women in particular see this as a change for the better; 53% of women under 50 say this has been a change for the better, compared with 36% of men in this age range.

There also are educational differences on the issue of increased acceptance of gays and lesbians: 51% of college graduates and 44% of those with some college education say this has been a change for the better compared with only 28% of those with a high school education or less. In addition, while 52% of Democrats and 40% of independents think increased acceptance of gays and lesbians is a change for the better, just 21% of Republicans agree. And just 20% of white non-Hispanic evangelical Protestants say greater acceptance of gays is a change for the better, a far lower percentage than in other religious groups.

Most See Benefits of Genetic Testing

A majority of Americans (53%) say that genetic testing has been a change for the better while 22% say it has not made much difference and 13% say it has been a change for the worse. A plurality across all age and educational groups says that genetic testing has been a change for the better, but fewer of those who are 65 and older or who have a high school education or less believe this.

White evangelical Protestants are more divided in their opinion than nearly all other demographic groups. About four-in-ten (39%) say genetic testing has been a change for the better, but 25% say it has made no difference and 23% say it has been a change for worse. A plurality of Republicans, Democrats and independents say that genetic testing has been a change for the better, but Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say that it has been a change for the worse (18% vs. 8%).

Generations Divide over Tattoos

The public is divided about the impact of more people getting tattoos; 45% say it has not made much difference, 40% think it has been a change for the worse and only 7% say this has been a change for the better. As might be expected, older Americans are far more likely to negatively view this trend: 64% of those 65 and older and 51% of those 50 to 64 say more people getting tattoos has been a change for the worse. A majority of those under 50 (56%) say the tattoo trend has not made much of a difference.

The age differences are larger among women than men. About six-in-ten (61%) women ages 50 and older say more people getting tattoos have been a change for the worse compared with 27% of younger women. The gap is smaller among men: 51% of men 50 and older say more people getting tattoos has been a change for the worse compared with 30% of younger men.

A majority (56%) of white evangelical Protestants say that more people getting tattoos has been a change for the worse; white mainline Protestants and white Catholics are more divided in their opinion. By comparison, 57% of those who are religiously unaffiliated say that more people getting tattoos has not made much difference.

Cable Talk a Mixed Bag

The public also is divided about the effect of cable news talk and opinion shows; 34% say they have been a change for the better, 31% think they have made no difference and 30% say they have been a change for the worse. More young people think these shows have been a change for the worse than people 65 and older. Similarly, more college graduates (43%) say cable news talk and opinion shows have been a change for the worse than those with some college education (28%) or with a high school education or less (23%).

On balance, more Republicans say cable news talk and opinion shows have been a change for the better (40%) than worse (24%). Democrats and independents are more divided with about the same percentages of each group viewing these shows positively and negatively.

A plurality (44%) of those who get most national and international news from cable television news say that cable talk and opinion shows have been a change for the better, compared with 31% who get most of their news from network news. People whose main news source is cable news are also more likely than those who get most news from newspapers to say these shows have been a change for the better.

The public overwhelmingly thinks that reality television shows have been a change for the worse; 63% say this compared with 22% who say they have not made much difference and only 8% who say they have been a change for the better. A plurality in all age groups says these shows have been a change for the worse. Even though a majority in all education groups says reality television shows have been a change for the worse; college graduates or those with some college education are more likely than those with a high school education or less to say they have been a change for the worse.

Israel’s offensive into Lebanon has not resulted in a public opinion backlash in the U.S. so far. A new Pew poll conducted July 6-19 finds little change in public sympathy for Israel in its dispute with the Palestinians. A 44%-plurality of U.S. adults say they sympathize more with Israel, while 9% sympathize with the Palestinians, figures that have remained largely unchanged in polls taken since late 2001. One in five (20%) say they sympathize with neither side, while a similar number (22%) say they don’t know with whom to sympathize.

The poll was underway when Israel responded militarily to the kidnapping of soldiers by Hamas and by Hezbollah. No significant difference was found in responses to this question by those interviewed earlier in the polling period, before the escalation of hostilities when Hezbollah guerillas crossed into Israel from Lebanon, and those interviewed later.

The poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, interviewed a nationwide sample of 2,003 adults by telephone.

Among political groups, Israel evokes the most sympathy among self-identified conservatives and Republicans. Among religious groups, white evangelical Christians are the most sympathetic to Israel (59%), with white Catholics slightly above the average (at 48%) and mainline Protestants and seculars significantly less sympathetic (33% and 24%, respectively). But even among those groups that express less sympathy for Israel — Democrats, mainline Protestants, seculars — few say they sympathize with the Palestinians; more say they have sympathy for neither.¹

A plurality of those polled say their views on this question have been shaped more by what they have seen in the media than by any other source (35%). Religious beliefs (21%) and education (19%) are also important. But among people who sympathize with Israel, religious beliefs nearly match the media in importance (32% for religious beliefs, 35% for the media).

Dissatisfaction with Bush, State of the Nation

The American public continues to express dissatisfaction with President Bush’s performance in office and with the state of the nation. President Bush’s job approval rating remains low, at 36%, the same as last month and just a few points higher than his low point of 33% reached in March and April of this year.

A large majority of Republicans (73%) approves of President Bush’s performance in office, but only 13% of Democrats and 28% of independents agree. These levels of support are mostly unchanged from polling conducted one month ago. The president continues to receive lukewarm support from important segments of his political base. Just 57% of conservatives approve of his job performance, and while a small majority of white evangelicals (52%) continues to have a positive view of the president, that percentage is significantly lower than the 72% of evangelicals who approved of Bush’s performance in January 2005, as he began his second term in office.

Dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. is as high now as in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina — nearly two-thirds (65%) are dissatisfied — and not far below the levels of discontent registered during the period of political disgruntlement from 1993-1995, when Pew polls found 71-75% of the public dissatisfied.

Republicans are more satisfied than Democrats with the way things are going in the United States (51% for Republicans, 14% for Democrats). But even among groups that are generally supportive of Republican policies, significant numbers express unhappiness with the state of the nation. Overall, 53% of people who identify as conservative say they are dissatisfied with how things are going, and this unhappiness is matched or exceeded by a number of important groups including white evangelicals (59% satisfied).

Half Now Say Iraq War Was Wrong Decision

One factor that may be contributing to public concern about the nation and disapproval of the president is unhappiness about the war in Iraq. In the current poll, just 44% of Americans say the U.S. made the right decision in using military force in Iraq — the same proportion as in early October 2005 and lower than at any other time since the war began. Half (50%) say the U.S. made the wrong decision.

Opinions about President Bush and about the state of the nation are strongly related to opinions about the situation in Iraq. Two-thirds of people who think the war in Iraq was the right decision approve of Bush’s performance in office, while fully 85% of those who think it was the wrong decision disapprove. Among those who disapprove of the war, a similar number also say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country.

No Change in Views of the Parties

Images of the two political parties have remained relatively stable over the past several months, with the Democratic Party garnering somewhat better ratings than the Republican Party. Currently, 40% of those polled said they had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party; 52% had an unfavorable opinion. For the Democratic Party, 47% were favorable and 44% unfavorable. These ratings, which are basically identical to those from an April Pew poll, reflect a significant fall-off in views about Republicans, from 52% favorable in December 2004, and a somewhat less sharp decline in the image of Democrats (from 53% favorable in 2004).

About the Survey

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. (SRBI) among a nationwide sample of 2,003 adults, 18 years of age or older, from July 6-19, 2006. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. For results based on Form 1 (N=996) or Form 2 (N=1,007) only, the error attributable to sampling is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions about Israel were on Form 1; favorability ratings of the parties were on Form 2.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

In this paper, we use comparative international data to analyze a broad array of issues relating to the global gender gap: Are women “doves” and men “hawks” when it comes to foreign policy and security matters? Do men and women have different beliefs on religion and morality? Is it possible to identify regional patterns in gender differences? And specifically, what are the major fault lines in opinions among men and women in predominantly Muslim countries?

To find the answers to these and other questions, we used the Pew Global Attitudes Project, a series of worldwide public opinion surveys administered by local organizations under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. To date, the Project has interviewed over 74,000 people in 50 populations (49 countries and the Palestinian Authority).

A commentary released by the Project last October addressed some of the general questions about the way men and women view their lives and increasing global interconnectedness. Here are the primary conclusions (Some copies of the release are available at the conference or on the Pew Research Center’s website at www.people-press.org):

• On the whole, women are happier with their lives and say they’ve made personal progress more than men.
• Within regions, men and women agree on almost every issue addressed, from personal progress to social issues, such as the acceptability of homosexuality.
• Men are more optimistic about the lives of their children and the future than are women.
• When asked about modern electronics and technological advances that are so much a part of the globalizing world, both men and women agree that having these available is a change for the better. But in 37 of 44 countries, “boys” like their high-tech “toys” much more than women.
• Birth control is popular among both the sexes, but in two-thirds of the countries surveyed, women are more likely to think having the ability to control reproduction is a change for the better.
• Most people around the world are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country, but women are most dissatisfied. The difference is greatest in France where 39% of men and only 26% of women are satisfied with national conditions, and in the U.S., where 47% of men are satisfied but only 36% of women agree.

This paper builds upon this initial analysis and looks specifically at the opinions of Muslim men and women on issues ranging from religion to social and political values. It also compares these views with those of men and women worldwide. It concludes with a look at how the sexes view current foreign policy issues and terrorism. Several primary conclusions can be drawn from this work:

• Few gender gaps exist among Muslims regarding the role of Islam in political life, and when gender differences do surface, it is within specific countries and not part of a broader pattern.
• Muslim men are more likely to favor more traditional roles for their female counterparts, while more women express a desire to bring gender equality into the workplace and into their marriages.
• Women, particularly in the Muslim world, decline to answer polling questions or say they don’t know at a much higher rate than men. Yet there is a pronounced pattern to their DK/Refusal response, suggesting that it is the type of question that determines whether or not women offer an opinion.
• When attitudes are measured only among those who respond to questions, men and women share similar opinions about the role of Islam in their society, women in the workplace and a host of political and personal issues.
• Suicide bombings and violent acts of killing are not just supported by men. As many women as men in several predominantly Muslim countries say such activities are justified.
• In the most recent survey taken in March 2004, men and women within their own countries in Muslim nations share common views on foreign policy issues and the war in Iraq, suggesting that national identity is more important than gender differences in these cases.
• Among Muslims, there is little difference between the genders on foreign policy issues, the war in Iraq and favorability of world leaders in the U.S. and Europe. However, women are somewhat less likely to express an opinion on these issues.

Muslim Surveys

In the 44-nation survey of the Pew Global Attitudes Project, 14 countries where Muslims are either the overwhelming majority or prominent minorities were asked a series of questions pertaining specifically to the role of Islam and governance. In smaller, subsequent surveys, additional populations were surveyed. Those populations noted as “predominantly Muslim” are Pakistan, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mali, Senegal and Uzbekistan. Smaller surveys incorporated the Palestinian Authority, Morocco, and Kuwait. Muslims surveyed in countries where they are a minority of their country’s population are Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Tanzania and Uganda. In three cases where there are Muslim minorities — Ivory Coast, Ghana and Uganda — gender breakouts are not reported due to small sample size.

Islam and Politics

Majorities in over half of the Muslim nations surveyed say Islam currently plays a large role in the governance of their society and just as many say it should play that role. Overall, men and women share the same views within their countries in nearly every nation surveyed. Only in Uzbekistan and Jordan are there significant gaps in opinion between the sexes. A 12-point gap exists in Uzbekistan with 48% of Uzbek men and 60% of women saying Islam currently plays a large role; in Jordan, more men than women say the role of Islam is significant (58% to 48%).

When asked of the role Islam should play in the governance of their countries, opinions correspond with the respondent’s beliefs in the role Islam currently plays. Majorities of Muslims in 9 of the original 14 nations surveyed said Islam should play a large role. In four others (Lebanon, Turkey, Senegal and Uzbekistan), respondents are split on this issue and only in Tanzania do Muslims say Islam should play a small role in the politics of their country. Again, men and women view the political role of their religion in roughly the same way.

In Nigeria, a country grappling with the issue of Sharia law, it may be surprising to find that women express a stronger belief that Islam should play a large role in the governance of their country. Although more than eight-in-ten respondents of both genders agree that Islam currently plays a large role, only 66% of Nigerian men say they think it should play a large role while 79% of women hold such views. Jordanian men and women hold differing opinions on many issues, the role of Islam being one. Men in Jordan say they want Islam to play a large role in politics much more than women and women are more likely to say that their religion currently plays less of a role in politics than men.

Democracy Can Work Here

Majorities of Muslims surveyed by Pew say that “Western style democracy” can work in their own country, with Indonesia a notable exception. Few Muslims say that democracy is “a Western way of doing things that would not work here.” The latter view is expressed by a majority of Indonesians (53%), and sizable minorities in Turkey and the Palestinian Authority both at 37%.

The belief that democracy can work in their country is shared fairly equally by both men and women. The exception is Bangladesh; 76% of Bangladeshi men and just 42% of Bangladeshi women say democracy can work here. Even after accounting for the higher non-response rate among women, Bangladeshi men believe more strongly than women in the democratic prospects for their countries.

However, the most significant change in the idea of “Western-style democracy” from 2002 to 2003 is the number of women who express an opinion. Perhaps because of the Iraq war and the increased international discussion of regime change in the Middle East, only a quarter of the women in Pakistan did not offer an opinion in 2003, whereas 57% did not do so in 2002. Less dramatically, yet still significantly, the number of men who did not respond decreased 17 points, from 21% in 2002 to 4% in 2003.

Interestingly, since 2002, Turkish respondents (both men and women) have increased their belief that Western-style democracy can work there. While 43% of men and 44% of women held such views in 2002, fully 51% of men and 49% of women said democracy could work in Turkey in 2003.

Democratic Aspirations

In addition to large numbers of both genders saying that democracy could work in their country, many Muslim men and women register high levels of support for the key democratic principles. Majorities in six countries, (Turkey, Mali, Bangladesh, Senegal, Nigeria and Lebanon) say it is very important to be able to live in a country where you can openly say what you think and criticize the government, have freedom of the press, and open and honest elections. Men and women within those countries have nearly identical views about these key freedoms yet women tend to give an opinion much less often than men. This is particularly the case in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Turkey and to a lesser degree elsewhere. Women who do register an opinion place equal importance on these democratic aspirations.

The DK/Refusal Effect

The discrepancy in the way men and women register opinions on various issues mentioned above shows that women, particularly in Muslim countries, respond “don’t know” or “refused” to questions with much more regularity than men. But, interestingly, the kind of question makes a big difference. Two spheres exist, the personal, home sphere dealing directly with women’s roles and personal lives, and a worldly sphere relating to opinions about the government, international problems, and political views. When asked about government policy or whether or not democracy can work in their country, fully 60% of women in Pakistan, (21% of men) 42% of Bangladeshi women (18% of men) and 18% of Turkish women (10% of men) do not register a response. The same is true when asked about the role of Islam in politics. Pakistani men register opinions at a much higher rate than women.

Yet, when asked about personal issues that deal directly with them, women are much more likely to offer a response. For example, when asked to agree or disagree with the statement, “women should have the right to decide if they wear a veil,” only 5% of Pakistani women did not respond, all Bangladeshi women gave a response and only 3% of Turkish women (equal their male counterparts) failed to respond. The dk/refusal rates are nearly identical when asked a series of questions about women’s role in the workplace and religious education.

After accounting for this difference by repercentaging the results between men and women, the findings are striking – the gender gap shrinks to near irrelevance. For example, 68% of Pakistani men said religious leaders should play a larger role in politics, whereas only 57% of women held that view. After accounting for the dk/refusal effect by basing the total on those who registered a response, the percentage of women believing religious leaders should play a larger role in politics was actually greater than men. Fully 84% of women and 74% of men who responded took that view.

The Role of Women in the Workplace

Women may not register opinions at a fairly high rate when asked about politics or government, but it is clear that they willingly share them regarding their roles in the social structure of their country and their personal values. This is especially true when Muslim men and women are asked about women’s roles in society.

In many countries, there is a significant gender gap among Muslims over whether women should be permitted to work outside the home. In Bangladesh, 57% of women completely agree that they should be allowed to work, compared with 36% of men. The gap is nearly as wide in Pakistan, where 41% of women strongly agree with that statement, compared with roughly a quarter of men (24%). Even in countries where Muslims broadly support women’s right to work outside the home, such as Lebanon and Turkey, differences between men and women are sizable.

Indonesia and Jordan are notable exceptions to this pattern. In those countries, support for women working is equally weak among members of both sexes. Just 24% of Muslim women in Indonesia, and 20% of men, strongly agree that women should work outside the home, and support is even lower in Jordan (16% to 13% respectively).

There is less of a gender gap over restrictions against men and women being employed in the same workplace. In most cases, women are as supportive of these restrictions as are men. While women in Bangladesh are much more likely than men to strongly favor the right of women to hold jobs, they also are more supportive of separating men and women in the workplace. More than a third of Muslim women in Bangladesh (36%) completely agree that such restrictions are appropriate, compared with 20% of Muslim men.

Type of Marriage

Questions on the role of women in the workplace were not only asked of Muslims. In the Global Attitudes Project inaugural survey in 2002, publics around the world were asked to identify the type of marriage that was most appealing to them. Majorities throughout Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa expressed the desire for both spouses to have jobs and share in household and child care duties. A majority of Americans agree, but to a lesser degree than many Africans and Turks, with 58% of the total U.S. population surveyed supporting both spouses working and 37% disagreeing. There is a large difference of opinion among predominantly Muslim countries, such as Egypt, Pakistan and Jordan, which are the sole countries to favor the more traditional role of women, where the man provides the income and the woman takes care of the household and children.

Homosexuality, Religion and Morality

The Global Attitudes Project reported a gaping transatlantic divide on social issues from the acceptability of homosexuality to social welfare between the U.S. and Europe. While the two regions are divided, another transatlantic gender gap also exists. Women in the U.S. are more accepting of homosexuality than American men, as are nearly all western European women.

Even among Muslims in regions as diverse as Pakistan, Turkey, Bangladesh and Lebanon, women express views of acceptance for homosexuality more than their male counterparts. The outlaying exceptions are Italy where both genders register almost equally large endorsements for homosexual acceptability (73% of men and 71% of women), and among Muslims in Uzbekistan, Indonesia and Jordan where an equally insignificant difference between the genders opposes homosexuality.

Women around the world say religion is more important to them than men in every region, in highly religious countries such as those in Latin America and in more secular societies such as Canada and Europe. Only in Muslim countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia, where nearly everyone expressed the importance of religion in their lives, were there few gaps between genders. On the question of whether or not you have to believe in God to be a moral person, women in 34 of 39 countries (question not permitted in China, Vietnam, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt) say that belief in God is tantamount to personal morality. Where men hold this opinion more than women, it is only by a slim margin – for example in France 16% of men and 10% of women hold this opinion and in Nigeria the margin is 86% to 84% respectively.

With women expressing greater importance of religion in their lives, how do Muslim women feel about religious education for their children? The Muslim world is divided over whether schools should focus more on ‘practical’ subjects and less on religious education. Half of the countries surveyed, including Turkey and Uzbekistan, support putting greater emphasis on practical education and several other countries, notably Indonesia, Pakistan and Jordan strongly oppose this idea. Yet despite the difference in male and female attitudes toward religion in Muslim societies, there is no large gap between the genders on religious education. The greatest difference is found in Nigeria where 26% of men completely agree that practical education should be given precedent with only 18% of women saying the same thing. Elsewhere, in Turkey, Pakistan and Uzbekistan, men and women mirror each other’s response.

Muslim men and women are also in agreement within their own countries on whether their religion should tolerate diverse interpretations of Islam’s teachings or if there is only one true interpretation of those teachings. The only significant gender gap is in Pakistan where 39% of women who offered a response favor diversity with 27% of men agreeing.

Threats to Islam

The perception that there are serious threats to Islam is widespread and growing in the Muslim world. This is most pronounced in Middle Eastern countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and the Palestinian Authority, where over two thirds of respondents in each country see Islam threatened. But this view is not limited to that region alone. Since the war in Iraq, over half of Indonesians (59%), Pakistanis (64%) and half of Turks feel major threats to their religion. These proportions are all up considerably since the Pew survey began polling in 2002, before the war in Iraq. Even in Nigeria, respondents saying Islam is seriously threatened have doubled since 2002, from 21% to 42%.

Men in most places feel threat more intensely than women, with the exception of Uzbekistan where women site serious threats to Islam by 4 percentage points over men. The biggest gender gap in opinion exists in Senegal where 71% of men see Islam threatened, but only 45% of women and Bangladesh (59% and 33% respectively). But the largest shift in opinion from 2002 to 2003 was in Pakistan. In the span of one year, men seeing a threat jumped 17 percentage points while women perceiving threats to Islam skyrocketed from 19% to 70%.

But what are these serious threats? Polling in 2002, prior to the US-led war in Iraq, found that people were not primarily worried about external, political, military or cultural threats. Instead most cited internal threats within their own country, such as government interference with religion, a diminishing commitment to Muslim teachings and schools among the young, or a lack of Islamic unity and moral decline.

Men and women express very different views of threats to Islam. Men list “terrorism” more often than women and also say that the U.S. and the West pose larger threats to Islam than their female counterparts. This is particularly prominent in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Women see local government and politics as larger threats to their religion, especially in Indonesia and Turkey. Women around the Muslim world agree that internal religious issues and the direction of Muslim education within their countries pose large problems for Islam. This is particularly distinct in Turkey where twice as many women than men say religious issues within Islam are the main threat to their faith.

Lebanon and Jordan are exceptional in that both sexes cite external threats to Islam more often than internal threats, a departure from any other country surveyed. There, terrorism and U.S./Western threats and even the influence of other religions far outweigh any internal threats to their religion. In addition, men and women share in this opinion equally, with nearly identical emphasis placed on those threats outside their country.

Similarly, the genders in Uzbekistan have few discrepancies in their responses on this issue, each saying that people within their own country (specifically Vakhabists, or religious fundamentalists) posed the largest threat to their religion. The threat of terrorism was also of primary concern to Uzbek men and women and they agreed to equal degree that the problem threatened their religion.

In sum, women in the Muslim world are more focused on internal threats to Islam, whereas men are more threatened by the other religions and the U.S./Western war on terrorism.

Suicide bombings

In the 14 Muslim countries surveyed in the inaugural 2002 poll, men were more likely to say suicide bombings and other forms of violence against civilian targets is justifiable than women. However, the gaps between the sexes are not large, with two contrasting exceptions. In Nigeria, a majority of men say suicide bombing is justifiable (56%) and only 36% of women say so. But 4,500 miles to the east in Pakistan, a majority of women who gave a response say such violence is justifiable much more than men. The re-percentaged ratio shows that 55% of women compared with 37% of men believed suicide bombing could be justified.

In an era where women are themselves joining the ranks of suicide bombers in the Middle East, it may come as little surprise that nearly three quarters (72%) of Lebanese women agree with their male counterparts that such actions are justifiable. In Jordan, the number of women sharing that view slightly outnumbers men, 45% to 41%.

Two additional questions regarding suicide bombing were asked in 2004 using specific scenarios. One asked about the justifiability of suicide bombing carried out by Palestinians against Israeli citizens and the other asked about such acts carried out against American and other Westerners in Iraq. When presented with these two cases, the number of people in all four countries saying that violence is justified, increased, and, in Turkey, increased considerably.

But the most astonishing figures come from Muslim women in Jordan and Morocco. There, more women than men say suicide bombings against Israeli citizens are justified, with fully 89% of Jordanian women and 77% of Moroccan women saying so compared with 85% and 71% of their male counterparts respectively. In Pakistan and Turkey, more Muslim men than women say such acts of violence are justified, yet still 33% of Pakistani women say so compared with 31% of Turkish men and 17% of Turkish women.

The same pattern holds when asked about suicide bombing of Americans and other westerners in Iraq. Again, Jordanian and Moroccan women believe these acts are justifiable by a slight margin over men in their country, whereas it is the men in Pakistan and Turkey who say this.

Foreign Policy and the War in Iraq

This paper has focused primarily on Muslim views but it is worth noting that men and women within their countries have very similar views of foreign policy issues. A nine country survey March 2004 examined the war in Iraq one year after it began and revisited some of the same questions about the America’s image in the world and U.S.-European relations that the inaugural survey examined. A few key points are worth mentioning. Overall, there is little difference in the views of men and women on most foreign policy questions, issues dealing with the Iraq war and use of force within their own countries. In addition, no clear regional patterns emerge.

One interesting finding from the new survey supports Pew’s original analysis– that men in all countries except Britain express more optimism about their lives and those of their children. In 2004 men believe people from their country who move to the United States have a better life more than women. This is especially true in Jordan where 38% of men believe immigrants to America are better off, but only 25% of women agree. In Britain women are only slightly more hopeful of the lives of British immigrants with 43% believing them better off and men just behind at 40%.

What is apparent is that the DK/Refusal effect both widens and narrows the gender gap with regard to foreign policy questions. As noted previously, women in all parts of the world are less likely to give an opinion on political issues than men, but taking that into account only muddies the picture and highlights the importance of intra-country differences.

After accounting for the higher rates of opinion giving, Pakistani men and women tend to fall further apart on most questions, yet in most other nations, the gap narrows. Three examples exemplify this finding: When asked to rate the United Nations, men in six of nine countries surveyed have a more favorable view of the world institution than women. Yet, due to the DK/Refused effect, women in six of nine countries rate the U.N better than men and the gap is narrowed in all of the remaining three. Smaller differences in view on foreign policy questions such as the relationship between the U.S. and Western Europe and pre-emption, show the same pattern, where, after accounting for opinion registry women and men the gender gaps narrow.

Conclusion

This analysis fails to detect any systematic difference between the genders when it comes to issues of governance, foreign policy and current international conflicts. Only on specific domestic issues of particular immediacy to men and women do the genders differ in their views. The data suggest the historic gender gap has diminished and one’s sex does not appear to predict opinion on a variety of issues the way it once did. The findings outlined here are only a first step, not the definitive work measuring opinion differences. Future in-depth analysis of other important cleavages such as age and education will be crucial to our understanding of ways in which men and women voice their opinions and which issues gender differences will surface in the future. For in the end, we may find we are not so different after all.