Paul Ryan’s selection to the Republican ticket has put the issue of Medicare squarely on the 2012 campaign agenda. And the latest Pew Research Center survey continues to find the public is aware of a proposal to gradually shift Medicare to a system of vouchers and is, on balance, more opposed than supportive of the idea.

The survey, conducted August 16-19, 2012 among 1,005 adults nationwide, finds 72% have heard a lot or a little about a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. And among those who are aware, the idea remains unpopular; by a 49% to 34% margin more oppose than favor the idea. This is virtually unchanged from public reactions a little over a year ago, when Republicans in the House voted in favor of this proposal as part of the “Ryan plan.”

More generally, while surveys consistently find that dealing with the deficit is a high priority for Americans, there is little support for doing so if it means entitlement cuts. When asked whether it is more important to reduce the budget deficit or to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, Americans continue to prioritize maintaining benefits.

The public offers a relatively negative assessment of Mitt Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate. Nearly half (46%) say Ryan is an only fair or poor choice, while 28% say he is an excellent or good choice. By comparison, reactions to John Kerry’s selection of John Edwards in 2004, and Bill Clinton’s selection of Al Gore in 1992, were more positive than negative.

But public assessments of Ryan’s Democratic counterpart are even more negative. Just 27% say Joe Biden has done an excellent or good job as vice president, while 56% say his job performance has been only fair or poor.

Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate received less public attention than the selection of Palin and Biden to the Republican and Democratic tickets in 2008. Fewer than half (42%) say they heard a lot about the choice of Ryan this year, while 57% heard little or nothing. In 2008, 56% said they had heard a lot about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin and 58% heard a lot about Obama’s selection of Joe Biden in the weeks following those announcements.

At this point, most Americans do not associate Ryan with the proposal to change Medicare. Just 23% of those who have heard about the idea of shifting Medicare to a system of credits to buy private insurance identify it as Ryan’s. Nearly as many (17%) say Barack Obama proposed this, while 44% do not know who proposed it.

Medicare Vouchers

As has consistently been the case, seniors express the strongest opposition to changing Medicare into a program that offers future participants credits toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. People age 65 and older who have heard about this proposal oppose it by a 55% to 24% margin, with fully 46% saying they are strongly opposed. There also is more opposition than support among people age 50 to 64, while those under age 50 are more divided.

The issue also splits along partisan lines with Democrats opposed to such a change by a 61% to 28% margin, while Republicans are more likely to favor it, though by a slimmer 46% to 32% margin. Among independents, 49% are opposed to this sort of gradual shift toward Medicare vouchers, while 34% are in favor.

Entitlements vs. Deficit Reduction

In January, 69% said reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up significantly from recent years. But the public rejects changing Social Security and Medicare benefits to achieve deficit reduction.

Overall, 51% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with 33% who say it is more important to take steps to reduce the budget deficit; 11% volunteer that they are equally important.

Democrats prioritize maintaining benefits over deficit reduction by a wide 64% to 23% margin. By contrast, Republicans are somewhat more likely to say taking steps to reduce the budget deficit (48%) is more important than keeping Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are (34%). About half of independents (48%) prioritize maintaining benefits, compared with 35% who say reducing the deficit is more important.

Fully 61% of seniors say maintaining benefits is more important, just 22% say reducing the budget deficit should take priority. And those with low family incomes overwhelmingly favor maintaining current benefits: 66% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with just 16% who say it is more important to reduce the deficit.

Low Ratings for Ryan Choice, Biden Performance

Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate receives a more negative than positive reaction from the public. Overall, 46% say Ryan is an only fair (23%) or poor (22%) choice, while just 28% call him an excellent (14%) or good (14%) choice; 26% do not offer a rating.

Six-in-ten (60%) Republicans call Ryan an excellent or good choice, 20% say he is an only fair or poor choice and 20% do not offer an evaluation. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) conservative Republicans say Ryan is an excellent or good choice, just 16% give the selection an only fair or poor rating. Independents view the Ryan selection somewhat more negatively than positively – 30% call him an excellent or good choice, compared with 42% who say he is only a fair or poor choice; 27% of independents offer no rating. Democrats view the Ryan choice overwhelmingly negatively – 70% say he is an only fair or poor selection; just 8% say excellent or good.

Views of the Ryan vice presidential selection are somewhat less positive than those for John Edwards in 2004 and Al Gore in 1992. In 2004, 49% said Edwards was an excellent or good choice, 31% called him an only fair or poor choice and 20% did not offer an opinion. In 1992, 40% said Gore was an excellent or good choice compared with 27% who said he was an only fair or poor choice; a third (33%) offered no opinion.

Joe Biden receives more negative ratings for the job he has done as vice president. Only 27% say he has done an excellent (7%) or good (20%) job as vice president; about twice as many (56%) say he has done an only fair (31%) or poor (25%) job.

Biden receives tepid ratings from his own party. About half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has done an excellent or good job, while 36% rate his performance as only fair or poor. Liberal Democrats (61% excellent or good) are more likely than conservative and moderate Democrats (46% excellent or good) to rate Biden’s job performance positively. Most independents (59%) and a broad majority of Republicans (87%) say Biden has done an only fair or poor job as vice president.

A Pew Research survey in May of 2011 found that those 65 and older had a negative reaction to Ryan’s plan to change Medicare: 51% opposed the plan (including 43% who opposed it strongly) compared with only 25% who favored the plan. People under the age of 50 offered far more support than those over 50 for Ryan’s Medicare plan.

A June 2011 survey found that most seniors said they were happy with how Medicare and Social Security operated. About six-in-ten (61%) said Medicare does an excellent or good job serving the people it covers; 57% said the same about Social Security. By contrast, most of those under 65 said these programs do an only fair or poor job.

In addition, just 33% of those 65 and older said they think Medicare needs major changes or needs to be completely rebuilt. Similarly, few seniors (30%) supported major changes or a complete rebuilding of Social Security. Support for changing Social Security and Medicare was far higher among those under 65.

Voters 65 and older are much more likely than younger voters to name Social Security as a top potential voting issue. A June 2012 survey found about as many senior voters saying Social Security is the issue that matters most to their vote (45%) as saying jobs (48%).

Seniors – along with the public overall – prioritize the protection of Medicare and Social Security benefits over deficit reduction by wide margins. In June 2011, two-thirds (66%) of those 65 and older said it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are compared with just (20%) who prioritized deficit reduction.

A wide majority of seniors (66%) said people on Medicare already pay enough of the cost of their health care, compared with 24% who said people on Medicare need to be responsible for more costs to keep the program financially secure. Most seniors (54%) also said low income people should not have their Medicaid benefits taken away, compared with 34% who said states should be able to cut back on who is eligible for Medicaid to deal with budget problems.

Divides in GOP Base over Entitlement Changes

In addition to presenting challenges among seniors, the issue of entitlements divides the GOP base.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 63% of those with family incomes of $75,000 or more say it is more important to take steps to reduce the budget deficit; a nearly identical percentage (62%) of Republicans with incomes of $30,000 or less say it is more important to maintain Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are.

The income gap among Republicans and Republican leaners is about as large as the difference between GOP supporters of the Tea Party and non-supporters. Among Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party, 57% view deficit reduction as more important than preserving Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are. Among Republicans and leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party, just 36% say that reducing the deficit is more important than maintaining benefits.

For more on entitlements see: “Public Wants Changes in Entitlements, Not Changes in Benefits,” released July 7, 2011 and section six of “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” released November 3, 2011.

Despite the stagnant economy and broad dissatisfaction with national conditions, Barack Obama holds a significant lead over Mitt Romney. Currently, Obama is favored by a 50% to 43% margin among registered voters nationwide. Obama has led by at least a slim margin in every poll this year, and there is no clear trend in either candidate’s support since Romney wrapped up the GOP nomination.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 28-July 9, 2012 among 2,973 adults, including 2,373 registered voters, finds that Romney has not seized the advantage as the candidate best able to improve the economy. In fact, he has lost ground on this issue over the past month.

The Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act appears to have had little effect on the 2012 race. But the decision has had a substantial impact on views of the court itself.

About half of Americans (51%) express a favorable opinion of the court, while 37% have an unfavorable view, up eight points since April and the highest percentage expressing an unfavorable opinion in a trend dating to 1985. The more negative view of the court is largely being driven by Republicans: Three months ago, Republicans viewed the Supreme Court favorably by a 56% to 25% margin. Today, they view the court unfavorably by a 51% to 38% margin.

The presidential campaign’s dynamics have changed little in recent months, despite the court’s high-profile health care ruling, a series of subpar job reports and increased campaign activity on the part of both candidates. Independent voters remain evenly divided, 46% support Romney while 45% back Obama. Nearly identical majorities of Democrats (88%) and Republicans (89%) support their party’s candidate. Obama’s lead arises from the Democratic Party’s continuing advantage in party identification among registered voters.

While Romney has nearly uniform support from his base, he continues to struggle in building enthusiasm. Just 34% of Romney voters support him strongly, compared with 64% of Obama’s backers. Yet this lack of enthusiasm does not mean that Republican voters are disengaged. Seven-in-ten Romney supporters say they have given quite a lot of thought to the election, compared with 62% of Obama supporters. This gap has remained consistent throughout the year.

The electorate remains deeply unhappy with the way things are going in the country. Just 28% of registered voters say they are satisfied with national conditions, while two-thirds (67%) are dissatisfied, which is largely unchanged from recent months.

The poor job reports have not gone unnoticed by the public: 51% say they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation, and 40% say the overall economic news is mostly bad. However, these evaluations are no worse than they were a month ago, and are not having a negative effect on impressions of Obama’s performance. At 50%, his current job approval rating is actually up slightly from 47% last month and in positive territory for the first time since March.

The job situation remains the number-one issue for voters in this campaign. Neither candidate has a clear advantage on this issue: 46% say Romney and 42% say Obama can do a better job improving the job situation.

More generally, Mitt Romney has lost ground over the past month on the issue of the economy. The eight-point advantage he held in June as the candidate better able to improve the economy has now flipped, with 48% saying Obama can better improve economic conditions, while 42% favor Romney.

Of 12 issues tested, Romney is seen as stronger than Obama on only one – reducing the federal budget deficit – while Obama has the edge on eight. By two-to-one (60%-30%) Obama is seen as the candidate who would better deal with the problems of poor people. By a 50% to 36% margin, more voters say Obama better reflects their view on social issues like abortion and gay rights. Obama also holds 12-point leads as the candidate better able to defend against terrorist attacks and deal with the nation’s energy problems.

Other Key Findings

Health Care Remains a Secondary Issue.  The proportion of voters saying that the issue of health care will matter most in their vote has increased very little in the wake of the court’s decision upholding the 2010 law. Just 22% rate health care as their top issue, largely unchanged from the 19% who said this last month.

Independents View Both Parties Unfavorably. For the first time in the past four election cycles, majorities of independent voters view both parties unfavorably: 57% of independents have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party, while 62% view the GOP unfavorably.

Public Sees Better News on Gas Prices. While news about the job situation is viewed negatively, the public is more upbeat about news about gas prices. Currently, as many say they are hearing mostly good news about gas prices as mostly bad news (31% each). In March, fully 85% said news about gas prices was mostly bad; just 2% said it was mostly good.

On Monday, July 2, retiring “PBS NewsHour” anchor Jim Lehrer interviewed Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut at the Chautauqua Institution’s Morning Lecture Series, titled, “The Lehrer Report: What Informed Voters Need to Know.” The discussion was part of the New York institution’s annual summer event held before an audience of 3,500. Lehrer and Kohut discussed the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision about the Affordable Care Act, the divided American electorate and how it will play out in the upcoming election between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

Related Links:

Decision, Uncertainty Over Health Care Ruling — July 2, 2012

GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney — June 21, 2012

The Chautauquan Daily report on the discussion — July 2, 2012

The public has long been divided in its opinions about the 2010 health care law. There is now a similar division of opinion over last week’s Supreme Court decision to uphold the law – 40% say they disapprove of the decision, while 36% approve and nearly a quarter (24%) offer no opinion.

Despite extensive public interest in the court’s ruling, just 55% of the public knows that the Supreme Court upheld most of the health care law’s provisions; 45% say either that the court rejected most provisions (15%) or do not know what the court did (30%). Among those aware that the court upheld most of the law, 50% approve of the decision while 42% disapprove.

The persistent partisan divisions over the law are reflected in the public’s reactions to the court’s June 28 decision. Seven-in-ten Republicans disapprove of the Court’s decision, while 66% of Democrats approve of it. About four-in- ten (42%) independents disapprove of the ruling while 32% approve.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 28 to July 1 among 1,006 adults, finds that the top single-word reactions to the court’s decision are “disappointed” and “surprised.” While “disappointed” is by far the top reaction among those who disapprove of the decision, “good,” “surprised” and “happy” are the top words among those who approve of the ruling.

The survey finds that 45% followed news about the court’s decision very closely, making it the second most closely followed story of 2012 (52% tracked news about rising gas prices in March).

Among those who tracked news about the health care decision very closely, 50% approve of the decision while 45% disapprove. Among those who followed this news less closely, just 24% approve, 37% disapprove, with 39% offering no opinion.

There are substantial age differences in news interest in the decision, as well as in awareness of what the court decided. Only about quarter of those younger than 30 (24%) followed news about the court’s health care decision very closely. That compares with 42% of those 30 to 49 and majorities of those 50 to 64 (56%) and 65 and older (62%).

Just 37% of those younger than 30 know that the court upheld most of the law’s provisions; majorities of older age groups know that the court upheld most provisions. Majorities of those who have attended college answered this correctly, compared with 44% of those with a high school education or less.

Health Care Ruling Is June’s Top Story

The Supreme Court’s health care decision is the month’s most closely followed story, surpassing the economy and the presidential election. (Public interest in stories earlier in June can be found here and here).

This week, there also was more interest in the court’s ruling on health care than in its decision on Arizona’s immigration law (29% very closely) and the House vote holding Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt for not sharing documents related to a gun-trafficking investigation (22% very closely).

Interest in the presidential election has remained fairly stable over the past few weeks. From June 28-July 1, 32% tracked news about the election very closely.

The public is unlikely to be satisfied with the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on the 2010 Affordable Care Act – no matter what the Court decides. Whether the Court decides to uphold the entire law, overturn the entire law, or reject the “individual mandate” while allowing the rest of the law to remain in place, fewer than half of Americans say they would be happy with the decision.

The public’s expected reactions track along partisan lines. Most Democrats would be happy if the law is upheld, while most Republicans would be happy if it is thrown out.

But the other widely discussed possibility – that the court could reject the part of the law that requires individuals to have health insurance while keeping the rest – does not satisfy either side. Among Democrats, 35% would be happy with this outcome, while 56% would be unhappy. Republicans, who have consistently opposed the individual mandate, are not much happier: 43% would be happy if the court strips only this provision, while 47% would be unhappy.

For many partisans, only an “all or nothing” outcome will be acceptable. Four-in-ten (40%) Republicans say they will be happy only if the entire law is overturned, while another 29% would be happy with either overturning the entire law or just the mandate. Conversely, 39% of Democrats say they will be happy only if the entire law is upheld, while 17% would be happy with either keeping the entire law or removing the mandate but keeping the other elements.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 7-17 among 2,013 adults, finds that none of these outcomes is particularly appealing to independents, though more would like to see the law entirely overturned than kept in place. Half (50%) of independents say they would be happy if the entire law is overturned, while only 35% would be happy if the entire law is upheld. Independents have a divided reaction to the court throwing out the individual mandate while upholding the rest of the law (44% happy, 49% unhappy).

What If the Court Just Struck Down the Mandate?

The prospect that the Supreme Court might strike down the individual insurance mandate while leaving the rest of the law in place draws negative reactions from both supporters and opponents of the 2010 law.

Overall, more continue to disapprove (48%) than approve (43%) of the 2010 health care bill. That is little changed from April (41% approve vs. 49% disapprove). Half (50%) of the law’s opponents, and roughly the same share of its supporters (54%), say they would be unhappy if the court throws out the individual mandate but upholds the rest of the law.

Many Americans do not have a clear understanding of what’s in the health care law. About one-in-five (18%) say they understand the law very well and 49% say they understand it somewhat well; nearly a third (31%) say they understand it not too well or not at all well.

Those who feel they understand the law are the most skeptical of a ruling that just strikes out the individual mandate. By a 61% to 37% margin, those who feel they understand what’s in the law very well – a group that includes roughly equal percentages Republicans and Democrats – say they would be unhappy if the individual mandate alone is thrown out. Among the much larger share of the public that does not understand the law as well, reactions toward striking down the individual mandate while upholding the rest of the law are more mixed.

Most Have Strong Feelings about Health Care Law

More than two years after its passage, the 2010 Affordable Care Act continues to spark strong feelings from most Americans, particularly among opponents. Overall, 35% of Americans say they disapprove of the law very strongly; that represents nearly three-quarters of the 48% who disapprove of the bill. By comparison, 26% of Americans approve of the law very strongly, or about 60% of the bill’s supporters.

Among political independents, more disapprove (55%) than approve (36%) of the law in general, and strong opposition to the measure exceeds strong support by about two-to-one (38% vs. 18%).

Republicans are more likely to disapprove of the law (82%) than Democrats are to approve of it (73%).
The gap in intensity is even larger. Only half (50%) of Democrats strongly approve of the law, compared with strong disapproval from 71% of Republicans.

Immigration Attitudes Little Changed

Before the end of its current term, the Supreme Court also is expected to rule on Arizona’s immigration law, which requires police to determine the immigration status of people they have stopped whom they suspect might be in this country illegally.

Most Americans continue to support the Arizona law: 58% approve while just 38% disapprove. This is slightly less support than the 64% who approved when the law was first passed in 2010.

At the same time, when the public is asked about priorities for dealing with illegal immigration, a plurality (42%) gives equal priority to tighter restrictions on illegal immigration and creating a path to citizenship for people in this country illegally. About a quarter (28%) say tougher border security and stricter law enforcement alone should be the priority; about the same percentage (27%) says developing a way for illegal immigrants to become citizens alone should be the priority. These views have changed little since 2010.

Opinions about Arizona’s immigration law – as well as priorities for dealing with illegal immigration – are divided along ethnic and racial lines. Three-quarters (75%) of Hispanics oppose the law, as do 56% of blacks, while whites support the law by greater than two-to-one (69% to 28%).

Fully 84% of Republicans approve of Arizona’s immigration law, unchanged since 2010. But support has dropped among both Democrats and independents. In June 2010, 65% of independents approved of the recently passed state legislation – that has slipped to 59% today. And in 2010, Democrats were split over the new Arizona law – 50% approved while 46% disapproved. Today, most Democrats disapprove by a 55% to 41% margin.

In terms of priorities for dealing with illegal immigration, 53% of Hispanics say that creating a path to citizenship should be the priority for dealing with illegal immigration; another 35% say the priority should be a path to citizenship, along with better border security and stepped up enforcement of immigration laws.

Most blacks (59%) and a plurality of whites (41%) say that both enforcement and creating a path to citizenship should be given equal priority. One-third (33%) of whites say that better border security and enforcement of immigration laws should be the sole priority.

The American public has been deeply divided from the start over the health care reform law now before the U.S. Supreme Court, though opinion has generally tilted more negative than positive over the past two years.  A majority of Americans disapprove of a key component of the law, which requires most individuals to be covered by health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. (See more below.)

According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in mid-June – in advance of the court’s ruling – 48% of the public disapprove of the 2010 Affordable Care Act, while 43% approve. That’s little different from April 2010 – shortly after the law was enacted – when 44% said they disapproved and 40% said they approved.

The June survey also shows the public is unlikely to be satisfied with the Supreme Court’s ruling – no matter what the court decides. Whether the Court decides to uphold the entire law, overturn the entire law, or reject the “individual mandate” while allowing the rest of the law to remain in place, fewer than half of Americans say they would be happy with the decision.

The public’s expected reactions track along partisan lines. Most Democrats would be happy if the law is upheld, while most Republicans would be happy if it is thrown out. The other widely discussed possibility – that the court could reject the individual mandate while keeping the rest – does not satisfy either side.

A More Wary Public

An earlier Pew Research Center survey finds that the public has become more wary of the government’s role in health care since the early days of the debate over the legislation in 2009. About six-in-ten (59%) now say they are concerned that the government is becoming too involved in health care, according to the Pew Research Center’s 2012 American Values Survey, released in June. That’s up 13 points since 2009. Still, about eight-in-ten (82%) agree that the government needs to do more to make health care affordable and accessible.

A Deepening Partisan Divide

The partisan divide over the government role in health care, already large in 2009, has only grown larger. Today, 88% of Republicans express concern about the government becoming too involved in health care; 37% of Democrats agree. This 51-point gap is the single largest partisan divide of the 79 items included in the values survey.

The divide over health care fits a broader pattern of growing partisan disagreement over the role and effectiveness of government. For example, the values study shows that Republicans have become much less supportive over the past 25 years of the notion that government should help those in need, while Democratic attitudes are little changed. (See full slideshow of findings.)

Individual Mandate Unpopular

A clear majority of those surveyed in a March Pew Research survey disapprove (56%) of the provision in the 2010 Affordable Care Act that requires most individuals to have health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. About four-in-ten (41%) approve of the mandate. The constitutionality of the requirement is a key component of the Supreme Court case expected to be decided by the end of June.

The partisan divides remain stark over the health care law in general. In the April survey, 87% of Republicans say they disapprove and 9% approve of the law. Among Democrats, 74% approve and 17% disapprove. About half of independents (52%) disapprove, while 36% approve. And the disparity is nearly as large in responses to questions about the health care mandate. About eight-in-ten Republicans (83%) disapprove of the mandate, while two-thirds of Democrats (66%) approve of it. A majority of independents opposes the mandate (60% vs. 36%).

A March compilation of survey data by the Pew Research Center and other polling organizations – “Public Remains Split on Health Care Bill, Opposed to Mandate” — shows similar results on a range of questions dealing with support for the health care law and the individual mandate.

Public Opinion About the Supreme Court

While most Americans say the Supreme Court’s March hearings on the health care law did not change their views of the law or of the Court, the hearings did more harm than good to the image of both.

In a survey done with the Washington Post in April 2012, nearly two-thirds (63%) say that what they saw and heard about the hearings did not change their opinion of the health care law. Another 23% say they now have a less favorable opinion and just 7% a more favorable opinion of it.

Similarly, 65% say their view of the Supreme Court remained unchanged after the hearings, but the number who say their view of the Court has grown more negative is three times the number who say it has grown more positive (21% vs. 7%).

The Pew Research Center survey conducted in April shows declining favorability for the Supreme Court more generally; 52% say they have a favorable opinion of the nation’s top court, down from 58% in 2010 and the previous low of 57% in 2005 and 2007. About three-in-ten (29%) say they have an unfavorable view, which approaches the high reached in 2005 (30%).

Conducted after the health care hearings, the survey finds that the law’s supporters and opponents express similar views of the court.

Health Care: A Top Issue for Voters

Health care remains a top issue for voters; 74% say the issue will be very important to their vote this fall. Health care ranks in the top tier of issues included in a Pew Research Center April survey, just below the economy (86%) and jobs (84%) and matching the budget deficit (74%).

Though there are wide partisan differences on some of the issues, the divide is relatively modest on health care; 84% of Democrats say this issue will be very important to their vote, compared with 74% of Republicans and 66% of independents.

In the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted March 29-April 1, 2012 among 1,000 adults, nearly two-thirds (63%) say what they saw and heard about the hearings did not change their opinion of the health care law, while 23% say they now have a less favorable opinion and just 7% a more favorable opinion of it. Similarly, 65% say their view of the Supreme Court remains unchanged after the hearings, but the number who say their view of the Court has grown more negative is three times the number who say it has grown more positive (21% vs. 7%).

These more critical reactions have a decidedly partisan cast. Roughly a third (35%) of Republicans say they have a less favorable opinion of the 2010 health care law after the hearings, compared with just 13% of Democrats. The pattern is reversed when it comes to the Supreme Court itself, with 32% of Democrats saying they now view the Court less favorably, compared with just 14% of Republicans.

A review of recent polling finds that basic assessments of the law are as divided as they were when the law was passed two years ago. In the latest Pew Research Center survey conducted March 7-11, 47% of Americans approved of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress, while 45% disapproved.

This mirrors the balance of opinion in the weeks after the bill was passed. In April 2010, 40% approved and 44% disapproved of the law. Five other major surveys conducted over the past month find similar divisions of opinion, and with little change from two years ago.

The Individual Mandate

The primary element of the law that is before the court this week – the individual mandate – is deeply unpopular with the American public. The Kaiser Family Foundation has tracked views on the provision of the law that “will require nearly all Americans to have health insurance by 2014 or else pay a fine” for most of the past two years, and has consistently found large majorities viewing it unfavorably. In Kaiser’s most recent tracking survey in March, 66% had an unfavorable opinion of the provision, while just 32% viewed it favorably.

The latest Pew Research Center survey confirms this negative reaction, but suggests that opinion may be less firm than at first appearance. By a 56% to 41% margin, the public disapproved of requiring all Americans to have health insurance or face a penalty, even if those who can’t afford it receive financial help from the government.

Yet the poll also found that opinion about the mandate may be somewhat fluid. The survey question mentioned both the financial penalty to be assessed for those who do not purchase insurance, as well as the financial assistance the government will provide to those who cannot afford a policy. Levels of approval of the provision were highly sensitive to which aspect of the law was mentioned last.

Among those for whom the question ended with the reference to financial help, opinion on the mandate was evenly divided (47% approve, 49% disapprove). But among those who heard about the penalty last, more disapproved than approved (63% vs. 34%).

Mixed Views on Legislative Repeal, Court Rejection

While the division of opinion over the Affordable Health Care Act is fairly consistent across major polling organizations, the level of support for repealing the bill varies widely depending on how survey questions are asked. Across seven major surveys conducted within the past five months, two found majorities favoring at least a partial repeal, three others found minorities backing repeal, and two others found a roughly even division of opinion.

The effect of question wording is particularly evident in a comparison of recent polls by Fox News and the Kaiser Family Foundation, both conducted within the past month.

The Fox News survey found 59% in favor of some kind of repeal, either repealing the law entirely (31%) or repealing parts of the law (28%). Yet the Kaiser survey found just 41% in favor of repeal; 23% said they favored repealing the bill and not replacing it, while 18% favored repealing it and replacing it with a Republican-sponsored alternative. Unlike the Fox News poll, the Kaiser survey asked respondents about what may replace the law if it is actually repealed.

Even the number of Americans who support making no changes to the Affordable Care act can vary substantially depending on the question. The Pew Research Center’s March survey found little support for the status quo: Just 20% favored leaving the health care law as it is, with most supporting either repealing (38%) or expanding (33%) the law.

Yet another survey conducted at the same time found more than half favoring the status quo when phrased differently. The March Bloomberg News poll found 46% saying it may need small modifications, but we should see how it works, and another 11% saying the law should be left alone. In this question, 37% favored repealing the law.

Some of the public’s ambivalence about the Affordable Care Act reflects the lack of clarity about what the alternative to it might be. As the Kaiser Family Foundation surveys have found, relatively few support eliminating the law and having nothing to replace it. But the survey also finds that a Republican alternative also garners little support.

This may reflect the fact that while the health reform bill meets with a mixed reaction, the Democratic Party holds a significant advantage over the GOP as the party better able to deal with health care. The latest Pew Research Center survey found 49% saying the Democratic Party can do a better job dealing with health care, while just 35% favored the Republican Party.

Similarly, recent surveys show sharply different results over what Americans want the Supreme Court to decide this year. A recent Fox News survey found the public divided evenly over whether the Court should invalidate the health care law as unconstitutional, or whether it should uphold the law as constitutional (46% vs. 43%).

A February Quinnipiac survey found slightly more favored overturning the law (50%) than upholding it (39%). But a Washington Post/ABC News survey found two thirds (67%) in support of the Court invalidating all or part of the health care law – 42% said the entire law should be thrown out, while 25% said just the individual mandate should be thrown out. Only about a quarter (26%) said the entire law should be upheld.

Mitt Romney has retaken a significant lead nationally in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, even as he has fallen further behind Barack Obama in a general election matchup. Moreover, Obama’s own job approval rating has reached 50% for the first time since last May, shortly after the killing of Osama bin Laden.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 7-11 among 1,503 adults, including 1,188 registered voters and 538 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, finds that Romney leads Rick Santorum, 33% to 24%, in the GOP nomination contest. A month ago, the two men were in a virtual tie (28% Romney, 30% Santorum).

But both GOP frontrunners are running well behind Barack Obama in general election matchups. Among all voters, Obama leads Romney by 12 points (54% to 42%) and Santorum by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama’s advantage among women voters, while largely unchanged from a month ago, remains substantial – 20 points over Romney and 26 points over Santorum.

Obama also holds an enthusiasm advantage over both of his main GOP rivals. In a matchup with Romney, 41% say they support Obama strongly, compared with only 28% who strongly support the former Massachusetts governor. Obama holds a commanding 45% to 28% lead over Santorum in strong support.

Republicans have a modest lead in engagement; 71% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they have given quite a lot of thought to the presidential election, compared with 64% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters. However, this is far short of the engagement advantage the GOP held in pre-election polls in the 2010 midterm campaign.

Obama is widely viewed as likely to defeat either Romney or Santorum in November. Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (59%) say that Obama is likely to prevail if the election is between Obama and Romney; just 32% expect Romney to win. About seven-in-ten (68%) say that Obama is likely to beat Santorum, if he becomes the GOP nominee.

While overwhelming majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters think that Obama will win against Romney or Santorum, Republicans are far less confident in their parties’ candidates. Just 60% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say Romney is likely to defeat Obama. In an Obama-Santorum matchup, even fewer GOP voters (46%) predict victory; about as many expect Obama to best Santorum (43%).

The poll includes other positive signs for Obama, as well some potential vulnerabilities. For the first time since last May, significantly more approve (50%) than disapprove (41%) of his overall job performance. That is little changed from a month ago (47% approve, 43% disapprove), but in January 44% approved of the way Obama is handling his job as president, while 48% disapproved.

Obama’s approval rating for handling the economy also has improved over the past several months. Currently, 43% approve of his handling of the economy, while 53% disapprove. In November, 35% gave him positive marks on the economy and 58% disapproved.

Gas Prices Offset Good News about Jobs

The public’s view of overall economic news – as well as news about the job situation – has shown decided improvement since last summer. Yet perceptions of news about gas prices have taken a sharp turn for the worse.

Fully 85% say the news they are hearing about gas prices is mostly bad, which is up from 47% last November. In contrast, the percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the job situation has fallen 26 points since November – from 64% to 38% – and stands at one of its lowest points in a measure dating back nearly three years.

The mixed perceptions of economic news have had little effect on underlying opinions about the state of the economy. The public’s rating of current economic conditions remains stubbornly negative. Nearly nine-in-ten (89%) say economic conditions are only fair or poor, a figure that has changed little over the last four years.

Economic optimism increased sharply between December and February and is unchanged since last month. Currently, 44% say they expect economic conditions in the country to be better a year from now, 14% say conditions will be worse and 38% say they will be the same.

Views of Candidates, Parties

The survey finds that the contentious Republican primary has taken a toll on the image of the leading GOP candidates. In the current survey, just 29% of Americans say they have a favorable view of Romney, while 51% say they have an unfavorable impression. In November, opinions about Romney were more closely divided (36% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable). Santorum’s image has grown much more negative in the past month alone: 27% say they have a favorable view of Santorum, while 44% view him unfavorably. In February, about as many said they had a favorable opinion as an unfavorable one (33% vs. 36%).

Obama’s personal image remains much more favorable than either Romney’s or Santorum’s. Currently, 56% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of Obama while 41% have an unfavorable view.

Moreover, while the Democratic Party is viewed more favorably than it was a few months ago, the Republican Party’s image is little changed – and remains much more negative than positive. Just 36% have a favorable opinion of the GOP, compared with 56% who have an unfavorable opinion. That is largely unchanged from January (35% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable).

Currently, 49% say they have a favorable impression of the Democratic Party, while 43% view the party unfavorably. In January, 43% viewed the Democratic Party favorably and 51% had an unfavorable impression.

The Democratic Party has opened a slim 44% to 39% advantage as the party better able to improve the job situation. The Democrats also are viewed as better able to represent people’s views on abortion (by 16 points), and to deal with health care (14 points), Medicare (13 points) and the nation’s energy problems (11 points).The two parties run about even on dealing with the federal budget deficit (41% Democrats, 42% Republicans).

Half of Americans (50%) say the Republican Party is more extreme in its positions; just 35% say that phrase better describes the Democratic Party. Those opinions have changed little since July. Still, about as many say the Republican Party (39%) as the Democratic Party (42%) can better manage the federal government.

Health Care Law: Two Years Later

The survey also finds that, two years after the passage of comprehensive health care legislation, the public is evenly divided over the law. Overall, 47% approve of the law, while 45% disapprove. In January 2011, 41% approved and 48% disapproved.

About half of Americans (53%) say that Congress should either expand the health care law (33%) or leave it as it is (20%); 38% favor its repeal. However, substantially more disapprove (56%) than approve (41%) of a key provision in the law that requires individuals to have health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. This provision is at the heart of a constitutional challenge to the law, which will be heard before the U.S. Supreme Court in late March.

Opinion on health care legislation is sharply divided along partisan lines. Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove of the 2010 law (84%) and the individual mandate (83%). About three-quarters of Democrats (76%) approve of the law and 66% approve of the individual mandate. Independents are divided over the health care law (44% approve, 47% disapprove), but 60% disapprove of the individual mandate.