A plurality of the public (43%) views Barack Obama’s upcoming State of the Union as about as important as past years’ addresses. About a third (32%) say Obama’s speech will be more important than those in past years, while 15% say it will be less important.

Opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union are little changed from last year or 2011. Last year, 46% expected the address to be about as important as those of past years; 36% said it would be more important and 14% said it would be less important.

These views also are in line with expectations for most of George W. Bush’s State of the Unions. The exceptions were 2002 and 2003, following the 9/11 attacks and before the Iraq war, when majorities viewed Bush’s State of the Union as more important. In 2008, when Bush gave his final State of the Union, just 19% viewed it as more important.

As in past years, there are wide partisan differences in opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union address. Far more Democrats (46%) than independents (28%) or Republicans (21%) say Obama’s speech this year will be important than those in prior years.

As George W. Bush prepares to leave the White House, the United States is in many ways dramatically different from when he took the oath of office in 2001. His first few months as president were largely unremarkable, despite the contentious 2000 election. But the horrific terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 greatly altered the course forward.

The attacks transformed American public opinion and fundamentally reshaped Bush’s image. His job approval rating reached 86% by late September. The public expressed broad willingness to use military force to combat terrorism. But then controversies over the build-up to war in Iraq and other Bush policies started to take their toll – at home and abroad.

U.S. forces quickly ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003, but could not create a lasting peace. As the fighting dragged on, Bush won re-election by a narrow margin. In his second term, he failed in his bid to build support for a partial privatization of Social Security. American deaths continued in Iraq, the government bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached directly into the White House.

Soon, economic troubles started to mount, and in 2008, the economy went into a dangerous free fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets. The president’s approval ratings slid over time to historic lows. His approval last hit 50% as he started his second term. It stood at just 24% in early December.

Not surprisingly, the public’s verdict on the Bush presidency is overwhelmingly negative. In a December 2008 Pew Research Center survey, just 11% said Bush will be remembered as an outstanding or above average president – by far the lowest positive end-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. Yet Bush’s impact on public opinion over the past eight years is seen in ways that go well beyond his personal unpopularity.

He helped shape the post-9/11 climate of opinion that was broadly accepting of a muscular approach to U.S. national security. And even after much of the public came to oppose the war in Iraq, there continued to be considerable support for the Bush doctrine of preemptive military action. In spite of the public’s shock over pictures of abuse of detainees at the U.S.-run Abu Ghraib prison, nearly half of Americans consistently said that the torture of terrorists to gain key information was at least sometimes justified.

In the final year of his presidency, even as his approval rating steadily declined to historic lows, most Americans continued to say Bush’s anti-terror policies deserve at least a fair amount of credit for preventing more terror attacks.

In his first term, Bush scored several early legislative successes on domestic issues – such as the No Child Left Behind education reform, two rounds of tax cuts and the launch of a significant Medicare drug plan.

But after those successes, the instances when Bush was able to mobilize – and maintain – public support for his agenda were rare. Even in the realm of national security, the public increasingly rejected the idea that a large military presence overseas would reduce the threat of terror at home.

Public backing for what was to have been Bush’s signature second-term achievement – reforming the Social Security system – withered within months of his reelection. His immigration reform proposal faced opposition within his own party, even though it was an issue – like Social Security – where Americans recognized major change was needed.

What might have damaged Bush’s legacy most was his administration’s mixed record of competent governance. Between Iraq, the government’s flawed relief effort in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and more minor missteps over the Dubai ports issue and other matters, the government “brand” deteriorated badly during the Bush years. In late April 2008, just 37% expressed a favorable view of the federal government, about half of the percentage of five years earlier (73%).

Final Judgments

In a Pew survey conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults, the American public paints a harshly negative picture of Bush’s tenure. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say his administration will be remembered more for its failures than its accomplishments, and a plurality (34%) says Bush will go down in history as a poor president. Fully 68% say they disapprove of Bush’s performance and most of those – 53% of the public – say they disapprove strongly. That is the highest rate of strong disapproval measured by Pew surveys in Bush’s eight years in office.

As his second term ends, only 13% say Bush has made progress toward solving the major issues facing the country; 37% say he has made those problems worse and 34% say he has tried but failed in his efforts. Another 11% say he has not addressed the major problems facing the country.

More than three times as many people say Bush will go down in history as a poor president (34%) than said the same of Bill Clinton at the end of his presidency (11%). About a quarter (24%) say Bush will be seen as below average and close to three-in-ten (28%) say he will be seen as average. Just 11% say he will go down in history as above average or outstanding.

Not surprisingly, the most critical assessments come from Democrats. More than half (53%) say Bush will go down in history as a poor president, while 25% say he will be remembered as below average. More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say he will be remembered as an average president; 21% say below average and 6% say poor. Two-in-ten say he will be remembered as above average, while 7% say outstanding.

Americans by a wide margin (64% to 24%) also say that in the long run the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh its accomplishments. The assessment of Clinton in 2001, despite controversy over how he had conducted himself in office, was virtually a mirror image. Six-in-ten said the accomplishments would outweigh the failures, and 27% said the failures would outweigh the accomplishments.

Just over half (52%) of Republicans say the Bush administration will be best known for its accomplishments. That number is significantly smaller for independents (20%) and Democrats (8%). When Clinton was leaving office, his own party (77%) and independents (60%) were much more convinced he would be remembered for his accomplishments.

Second Term Approval Slide

Between the start of his second term and December 2008, Bush’s approval rating dropped from 50% to 24%, a level that rivals the historic lows recorded by Gallup for Harry S Truman as he left office in 1952. Declines came across demographic and political groups, though significant divides still exist among those with differing political ideologies.

Approval among moderate and liberal Republicans saw one of the sharpest drops – from 82% to 50%. Conservative Republican approval dropped from 94% to 66%. Independent approval started at below half in 2005 – 47% – but dropped to 18% by December 2008. The change among Democratic groups, already highly critical of Bush, proved less dramatic. Approval among conservative and moderate Democrats dropped from 22% t
o 8%, while approval among liberal Democrats dropped from 7% to 2%.

Bush’s approval dropped significantly among all education levels. In terms of age groups, the largest decline came among the youngest voters – those age 18-29. Within that group, approval dropped from 50% to 19%. The oldest group – age 65 and up – experienced a smaller decline, dropping from 47% to 26%.

A Legacy of War

When people are asked what they think Bush will be most remembered for after he leaves office, the most frequent responses volunteered are tied to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. More than half (51%) of responses mention facets of the Global War on Terror, with close to three-in-ten (29%) specifically mentioning Iraq.

About 17% include specific negative assessments of Bush and his performance. Small percentages within that group refer to his competence (2%), his negative impact on the country (2%) or label him the “worst president” (2%). Another 13% refer to the impact of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, with 9% mentioning the attacks specifically and 3% noting that Bush had kept the country safe from major attack since that day. Another 12% mentions economic issues, including 7% who refer to the economy specifically, 4% who mention the current crisis and 3% referring to the recession. Another 4% offer positive assessments of Bush’s performance in office.

Meanwhile, concerns about Bush’s effectiveness are also seen in the one-word answers people give to describe their impressions of the president. In mid-2005, positive one-word descriptions outnumbered negative ones, but in more recent lists, the responses have been more negative. The most frequently mentioned description in the latest survey was “incompetent,” just as it was in February 2007 and March 2006. Many of the terms offered by respondents in the December 2008 survey are negative, though the second most frequently mentioned description was honest. Good and honorable also make the list.

The Global Outlook

On the foreign stage, a solid majority of Americans say the country is significantly less respected than in the past – and many of those people see that as a major problem. Many Americans are eager to turn inward to deal with this nation’s problems: fully 60% said in September 2008 that domestic policy should be the primary focus of the new president. And a greater percentage than before the Iraq war now say the best way to reduce the threat of terror is to reduce America’s military presence overseas, not increase it.

Meanwhile, a 2008 survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project showed that majorities in 19 of the 24 nations – including several strong U.S. allies – had little confidence in Bush as he neared the end of his presidency. A 2007 survey of 45 nations found anti-American sentiment extensive as well as increasing disapproval for key elements of U.S. foreign policy.

And the image of the U.S. in the Muslim world remained abysmal. Iraq, the war on terrorism and American support for Israel continued to generate animosity in the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere. In many nations considered central to the war on terror, the general public deeply distrusted the United States. Even in countries like Kuwait that have long been considered relatively pro-American, the U.S. image had declined.

Among the few bright spots for Bush in the Global Attitudes surveys were the African nations that had benefited from administration programs to boost economic growth and reduce the spread of AIDS. In 2008, majorities in Tanzania and Nigeria expressed confidence in the president.

Still, Bush has had some success at home building support for tough tactics – including harsh interrogation policies for foreign detainees and government monitoring of phone calls or e-mails without warrants – to gather information about possible terrorists and stop potential attacks. On balance, more Americans say they worry that anti-terror policies have not gone far enough in protecting the United States than say they feel the anti-terror policies have “gone too far in restricting civil liberties.”

The Political Legacy

When Bush took office, Republicans controlled both Congress and the White House. But voter party preferences shifted significantly during Bush’s second term as missteps, bad news and scandals took their toll on Bush and GOP congressional leaders. In the 2006 midterm elections, more independents and moderates aligned themselves with the party out of power and Democrats took control of the House and the Senate.

In 2008, Bush was barely seen during the presidential campaign. Both Barack Obama and John McCain persistently criticized his administration, vowing to bring “change” to Washington. Obama’s significant win and additional Democratic gains in Congress signaled a continuing decline of the Republican Party under Bush.

In surveys conducted in the fall of 2008, 51% of all voters said they thought of themselves as Democrats or leaned toward the Democratic Party. That was up five points from 46% during the same period in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party fell from 45% to 41%.

The greatest gains came among younger voters. Only among voters age 65 and older did the percentage identifying with the Democratic Party decrease – from 49% in 2004 to 47% in 2008. The percentage of voters age 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Party increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% in the fall of 2008. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from only a seven-point advantage in 2004.

With the economy slowing and the stock market reeling, there is greater agreement among Republicans and Democrats that strengthening the nation’s economy should be a top priority for the president and Congress in the coming year. By contrast, partisan differences over the importance of other domestic issues — such as dealing with global warming, helping the poor and providing health insurance to the uninsured — have all increased substantially over the past year.

As President Bush prepares for his final State of the Union address on Jan. 28, opinions about his administration’s legacy, already fairly negative, have declined further. Fully 59% say the Bush administration’s failures will outweigh its accomplishments, while just 28% believe the Bush administration will be remembered more for its accomplishments. A year ago, a smaller majority (53%) believed the administration’s failures would be more enduring than its successes.

The annual survey on the public’s policy agenda shows that substantially more Republicans and independents view strengthening the economy as a top priority than did so in January 2007. Partisan differences over the importance of bolstering the nation’s economy, which were fairly sizable at the start of last year, have disappeared.

However, far fewer Republicans rate dealing with global warming, expanding access to health insurance and helping the poor as top concerns — and partisan disagreements over the importance of those issues have increased considerably. Only about a quarter of Republicans (27%) say that providing health insurance to the uninsured should be a top priority, down 17 points from January 2007. More than twice as many Democrats (65%) and independents (58%) now rate this as a major policy goal.

There is a similar pattern in views about the importance of dealing with the problems of the poor and global warming. A year ago, global warming was the lowest-ranking agenda item for Republicans of 23 issues mentioned; just 23% viewed it as a top priority. This year, it has fallen even further — just 12% of Republicans cite global warming as a top priority, less than half the proportion naming the next lowest rated issue (27% for providing health insurance to the uninsured).

Democrats currently are about four times more likely than Republicans to rate global warming as a major priority (47% vs. 12%), a much greater gap than in January 2007 (48% Democrat vs. 23% Republican).

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 9-13 among 1,515 adults, finds signs of considerable unease with the nation’s economy. In the survey, conducted before this week’s stock market fluctuations, just 26% rate the economy as excellent or good, while 73% say it is only fair or poor.

While opinions about the economy have not declined since fall, they are the most negative economic ratings at the beginning of any presidential year since 1992. In January 2004, 37% had a positive view of the economy, while 63% expressed a negative opinion.

Most Important Problem

Economic problems now top the public’s list of national concerns, with roughly one-in-three (34%) citing economic problems as the nation’s most grave, compared with 27% who say the war in Iraq is the biggest problem facing the nation. This represents a reversal from a year ago, when 42% cited Iraq as the most important problem in the wake of Bush’s proposal to increase the number of troops there. As recently as September, 37% of Americans cited Iraq as the nation’s biggest problem, nearly double the 20% who cited economic problems. But current views are more in line with public opinion in 2005 and 2006, when roughly equal numbers cited economic concerns and Iraq as the nation’s biggest problem.

Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to cite the economy as the nation’s greatest problem. Nearly four-in-ten Democrats (39%) list an economic concern, compared with 27% of Republicans. Democrats are also substantially more concerned about Iraq than are Republicans (36% vs. 21%). By contrast, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to name immigration, terrorism and national security as the biggest problems.

While the number of Americans citing the economy as the nation’s largest problem has increased in the past year, it is far from a record high, even in the post-Iraq era. Over the past two decades, 1992 still represents the peak public concern about the economy. In January of that year fully 76% cited an economic problem as the most important facing the nation. But a more recent peak occurred in the spring of 2003 — just a month after U.S. forces invaded Iraq. In April of 2003, 41% of Americans saw the economy as the nation’s biggest problem, while just 14% cited the situation in Iraq.

Top Priorities: Economy, Terrorism

Strengthening the economy and defending the country against terrorism lead the public’s list of policy priorities for the president and Congress in the coming year. Fully three-quarters of Americans (75%) rate strengthening the economy as a major priority, up from 68% a year ago.

Notably, much of the increased emphasis on the economy comes from upper socioeconomic groups — college graduates and people with relatively high annual household incomes, as well from Republicans and independents.

Three-quarters (75%) of college graduates now see the economy as a major priority, up sharply from 54% in January 2007. The shift has been just as large among people with household incomes of at least $75,000 annually (20 points). As a consequence, the substantial educational and income differences over the importance of the economy as a policy priority also have disappeared.

Terrorism has declined somewhat as a leading policy priority over the past year, though it still ranks at the top of the public’s agenda. Nearly three-quarters of Americans (74%) view defending the country from future terrorist attacks as a top priority, down from 80% in January 2007. The current measure is on par with the percentage rating terrorism as a top priority in January 2005 (75%). Terrorism has declined as a priority among independents (from 77% to 65%) and Republicans (from 93% to 86%). About the same percentage of Democrats view defending against terrorism as a top priority as did so a year ago (74% then, 75% now).

Among other issues, reducing crime has declined as a top policy priority for the president and Congress; 54% rate crime reduction as a top priority, down from 62% a year ago. At the same time, somewhat more Americans view reducing the budget deficit as a top priority than did so in January 2007 (58% now, 53% then). Currently, more Americans view reducing the budget deficit as a top priority than at any point since January 1997 (60%).

Dueling Agendas

Compared with Republicans, Democrats place much greater emphasis on jobs, health care, education, the environment, and the poor. On jobs, for instance, 76% of Democrats but just 43% of Republicans say it should be a top priority for the president and Congress. Somewhat higher proportions in each party rate jobs as a top priority than did so in January 2007 (67% of Democrats, 39% of Republicans).

Notably, 81% of Democrats say that reducing health care costs should be a top
priority for policymakers — the highest percentage for any issue mentioned. Only about half of Republicans (53%) view this as a major priority.

Republicans place greater priority on defending the U.S. against terrorism (86%, vs. 74% for Democrats), dealing with the issue of illegal immigration (64% vs. 43%), and strengthening the military (62% vs. 37%). For Republicans, illegal immigration ranks as the third leading priority, after terrorism and the economy. However, while illegal immigration has been a major issue in the GOP’s primary campaign, slightly fewer Republicans rate this as a top priority than in January 2007 (64% now vs. 69% then).

At the same time, reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interest groups in Washington is now a much higher priority among Republicans than it was in January 2007. Roughly four-in-ten Republicans (42%) say that reducing the influence of lobbyists and special interests should be a top priority, up from 28% a year ago. Republicans are now somewhat more likely than Democrats to rate this as a major priority; last year, a higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans said that reining in special interests should be a top priority.

There is little or no partisan difference on two other issues: 37% of Democrats and Republicans say that dealing with global trade should be a top priority, and about half of each group (46% of Republicans and 50% of Democrats) would make a top priority of reducing middle class taxes.

Economic Worries Now Cross Party Lines

Economic ratings today are somewhat more negative than they were a year ago, and down even more compared with the latter half of 2006. (However, this poll was conducted prior to the sharp decline in the international equity markets earlier this week). Barely one-quarter of Americans (26%) give the economy a good or excellent rating, and 73% say it’s in fair or poor shape. Majorities have not given the economy a positive rating since 2000.

Still, economic ratings today are well above where they were at this point in the election cycle in 1992. In that year, just 12% rated the economy as either excellent or good, and fully 41% said that it was in poor shape.

More people assess their own financial situation positively than do so for the nation’s economy. Currently about half (49%) say their finances are in excellent or good shape, and an equal number say their finances are in only fair or poor shape. In comparison with national ratings, personal financial ratings have changed relatively little over the past several years. Most people say that they expect their personal finances to improve at least “some” over the next year, a pattern that has been true for at least 15 years.

There continues to be a sizable partisan gap in ratings of the national economy. Currently, 46% of Republicans, but just 24% of independents and 15% of Democrats, give the economy at least a good rating. During the 1990s, partisan differences on this question were relatively small and inconsistent in direction. Beginning in 2002, a substantial party divide opened up on the question and Democrats and Republicans have remained far apart in their assessments ever since.

However, the party gap has narrowed somewhat, as increasing numbers of moderate and liberal Republicans express negative views of the economy. Over the past four years, conservative Republicans have been more positive about the economy than their moderate and liberal counterparts, but the size of this gap has grown. Currently just 29% of moderate-to-liberal Republicans rate the economy positively; by contrast, a small majority of conservative Republicans (54%) still do so.

Bush Administration’s Legacy

As he begins his final year in office, President Bush’s standing with the public continues to worsen. While his overall job approval ratings are holding steady, the balance of opinion is roughly two-to-one negative (31% approve, 59% disapprove). And the number of Americans — including many within the president’s own party — who see the failures of his administration outweighing the accomplishments continues to rise, and a record high number say this year’s State of the Union address is less important than in past years.

A 59% majority of Americans believe that, in the long run, the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh the accomplishments, up from 53% a year ago. Half as many (28%) say Bush’s accomplishments will outweigh his failures. By comparison, in January 2004 — at the outset of Bush’s re-election campaign — more saw the administrations accomplishments carrying more weight (49%) than its failures (36%).

This dour view of the Bush presidency stands in contrast to public sentiment at the same point in Bill Clinton’s presidency. In January of 2000, 51% felt the Clinton administrations main legacy would be its accomplishments, while just 37% said the failures would stand out.

At the time, a quarter of Republicans felt that Clinton’s legacy would be positive, compared with just 9% of Democrats who say the same about Bush today. And fewer Republicans today (62%) see Bush’s accomplishments standing out compared with Democrats in 2000 (75%). Yet the most striking difference in views of the two presidents’ legacies is among independents. In January 2000, a majority of independents (53%) said that Clinton’s legacy would be marked by his administration’s accomplishments.

Today, by a 64% to 23% margin, most independents say Bush’s legacy will be marked by his administration’s failures.

Conservative Republicans continue to say that Bush’s long-term legacy will be positive — 71% say the administration’s accomplishments will outweigh the failures. But among moderate and liberal Republicans — who make up roughly a third of the party — just 44% believe Bush’s accomplishments will stand out, while about the same number (43%) say the administration’s failures will stand out. This is a sharp departure from a year ago, when moderate and liberal Republicans were just as upbeat about Bush’s legacy as conservative Republicans were.

Bush’s Final State of the Union Address

More than a quarter of Americans (27%) say this year’s State of the Union address is less important than those in the past. A year ago, in the wake of Bush’s major speech outlining the troop surge in Iraq, just 16% saw the 2007 State of the Union address as less important than those in past years, while 32% said it was more important.

The modest anticipation for this year’s address stands in stark contrast to public assessments of Bush’s first two State of the Union speeches, in 2002 and 2003. Majorities in both years said those addresses were more important than in previous years. But low level of interest in a president’s final State of the Union address is hardly unprecedented. In the weeks before Bill Clinton’s final address to Congress and the nation in 2000, just 16% rated it as more important than usual, while 22% said it was less important.

Most Favor Focus on Domestic Issues

Last year amid growing concerns about the war in Iraq, the public was divided over whether President Bush should focus more on domestic or foreign policy. This year, with rising concerns about the economy and the war in Iraq no longer dominating the news, a solid majority of 56% says that the president’s focus should be on domestic policy; just 31% say foreign policy is more important. Republicans are divided on this question, with as many favoring a foreign focus as a domestic one, but Democrats and independents overwhelmingly want domestic policy to be the focus.

When the choice is posed as domestic policy or the war on terrorism — as opposed to foreign policy more generally — domestic policy is still the preferred focus, but only by a plurality (46% domestic policy vs. 38% war on terrorism).

A year before the 2008 presidential election, most major national opinion trends decidedly favor the Democrats. Discontent with the state of the nation is markedly greater than it was four years ago. President Bush’s approval rating has fallen from 50% to 30% over this period. And the Democrats’ advantage over the Republicans on party affiliation is not only substantially greater than it was four years ago, but is the highest recorded during the past two decades.

The public continues to express more confidence in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party as being able to bring about needed change, to govern in an honest and ethical way and to manage the federal government. The Democratic Party’s advantages on these traits are much wider than during the last presidential campaign. Moreover, they remain about as large as they were just prior to the 2006 midterm election, in spite of rising public discontent with the Democrat-led Congress.

The voters’ issues agenda also appears to benefit the Democrats. Along with Iraq, the economy, health care and education rate as the most important issues for voters. Compared with the 2004 campaign, fewer voters now place great importance on the issues that have animated Republican political unity in recent years — including gay marriage, abortion and terrorism.

Looking to the presidential election itself, the political climate appears to be affecting the morale of those in both parties. Democrats are more positive and more enthused than are Republicans. Since the beginning of the year, Democrats have closely followed campaign news at consistently higher rates than have Republicans, and somewhat greater proportions of Democrats say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates.

Republicans not only are less engaged in the campaign, but they also rate their party’s presidential candidates more negatively than do Democrats. Nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (46%) rate the Republican presidential candidates as only fair or poor; by comparison, just 28% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents give the Democratic presidential field comparably low ratings.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 17-23 among 2,007 adults, finds that Hillary Clinton remains the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination. Clinton leads Barack Obama, her closest rival, 45%-24% among Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters. Clinton holds a substantial advantage over Obama and other rivals among most key Democratic voter groups, including liberals and African Americans. College graduates are among the only Democratic groups that splits its support between Clinton and Obama.

The nomination race among Republicans is more fluid, reflecting sharp ideological divides within the party. Giuliani maintains a modest 31%-18% lead over John McCain, with Fred Thompson at 17%, among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters. Giuliani’s lead has remained fairly stable since March, while Thompson has faltered a bit recently and McCain has lost support over a longer period of time. Since September, Mike Huckabee’s standing has increased from 4% to 8%, giving him virtually the same level of support as Mitt Romney (9%).

The GOP nomination race among Republican evangelicals, in particular, appears to be wide open: Giuliani, McCain and Thompson each draw about 20% of the vote among white Republican and Republican-leaning evangelical voters, with Huckabee and Romney getting about 10% each.

In addition, a solid majority of Republican white evangelicals (55%) say they would at least consider voting for a conservative third-party candidate if the general election is between Giuliani and Clinton. Overall, 44% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters say they would consider backing a third-party candidate who holds more conservative positions than Giuliani on social issues like abortion and gay marriage.

Sen. Clinton holds a 51%-43% advantage over Giuliani in a general election ballot test among all registered voters. Clinton’s lead over Giuliani reflects her strong backing from women (57%-37%). Giuliani runs slightly ahead of her among men (49%- 44%). Clinton’s support is strongest among women voters younger than 50 (60%-36%), while Giuliani’s support is greatest among men in the same age group (52%-45%). Younger women also are the voting group that most often says that, apart from their feelings about Clinton, it would be a good thing to elect a female president. Nearly half (47%) express this opinion, compared with just 34% of older women and 24% of men.

Clinton’s supporters are much more positive about her candidacy than are Giuliani’s. Roughly three-quarters of voters who favor Clinton (76%) say their choice is more a vote for the New York senator, compared with 20% who say their choice is mostly a vote against Giuliani. By contrast, Giuliani’s support is divided fairly evenly between those who see their choice as a vote for Giuliani (46%) and those who say it is a vote against Clinton (50%).

Voters who favor Clinton more often cite her positions on issues as the reason they support her (35%), but many also mention her leadership ability (27%) and experience (24%). Giuliani’s support is much more based on his leadership ability (46%), and much less on his positions on issues (15%).

In fact, Giuliani’s stances on issues are cited less as a reason to support him than has been the case for any presidential candidate since 1992. At the same time, more of his supporters cite his leadership ability as what they like most about him than have the supporters of any candidate in the same period, including George Bush during his reelection campaign in 2004 (46% Giuliani vs. 41% for Bush in September 2004).

As is typically the case, opponents of both Clinton and Giuliani more often cite their positions on issues, rather than leadership, personality or other factors, as the main reason why they are not supporting them. Roughly four-in-ten Giuliani supporters (42%) say Clinton’s positions on issues are what they like least about her; 21% cite Clinton’s personality. Clinton supporters are more divided over what they do not like about Giuliani, and a relatively large minority (33%) offered no response. A plurality of those who did give an answer cited Giuliani’s positions on issues (27%), while 21% mentioned his personality.

The survey finds that in some respects, voters hold similar perceptions of the personal qualities of the New York senator and former New York City mayor. Overwhelming majorities describe Clinton as ambitious (93%), outspoken (84%) and tough (78%). Somewhat smaller, though substantial, majorities also associate these qualities with Giuliani. Smaller percentages see both candidates as compassionate and down-to-earth, and only about half view Clinton (49%) and Giuliani (48%) as trustworthy.

In a follow-up question, voters say that they like Clinton and Giuliani’s ambition, outspokenness and toughness. However, a slightly larger number say they dislike Clinton’s outspokenness than say they dislike this quality in Giuliani (26% vs. 18%). In addition, voters have a more positive view of such qualities as outspokenness and toughness in a hypothetical female leader than they do when those same qualities are associated with Clinton.

Overall, a large majority of the public (64%) says that if Hillary Clinton becomes president, Bill Clinton would have positive influence on the way she does her job. But far fewer people (45%) say they like the idea of the former president “being back in the White House.”

Men and women are about equally positive about Bill Clinton’s influence on Hillary Clinton, but fewer women than men say they like the idea of the former president returning to the White House (40% vs. 52%). Older women are less likely than younger women to say they like the idea of Bill Clinton returning to the White House. White evangelical Protestants also are quite negative about this prospect; fully 58% say they dislike the idea of Bill Clinton being back in the White House.

The public is divided about whether Hillary Clinton would govern the country differently from her husband. About half (48%) say Hillary Clinton’s government style would be similar, while 45% say it would be different. Most Republicans believe that Hillary Clinton’s style of governing would be similar to Bill Clinton’s — and by two-to-one those who express this opinion see it as a bad thing. Democrats and independents are less certain about Sen. Clinton’s governing style; those who believe Hillary Clinton’s approach will be different from Bill Clinton’s generally see this as a good thing, as do those who believe her approach will be similar.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson has broad potential appeal among Republican voters even before his expected entrance into the presidential race. Thompson is not nearly as well known as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or the other leading GOP candidates. But 37% of the Republican and Republican-leaning voters who have heard of Thompson say there is a “good chance” they will support him. This is equal to the level of support Giuliani receives from GOP voters who have heard of him, and reflects far more enthusiasm than any of the other Republican candidates garner.

Democratic voters continue to express somewhat more enthusiasm for their party’s top-tier candidates than do Republicans, and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue to draw the greatest potential support. The enthusiasm advantage Clinton enjoyed in February has all but disappeared, as the percentage of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters saying there is a good chance they would support her has dipped from 52% to 44%.

Support for Obama is unchanged from February; 40% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say there is a good chance they would vote for him. Former Vice President Al Gore has gained ground in recent months – 34% say there is a good chance they would vote for Gore today, up from 27% in February.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted May 30-June 3 among 1,503 adults, finds that overall voter engagement in the presidential campaign remains somewhat limited, despite intense press coverage of the race. Just 33% of all voters say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential candidates, up only modestly from December (27%). However, Republican voters have caught up with the Democrats in campaign engagement, after trailing in previous surveys.

Many voters are dimly aware of even heavily covered aspects of the candidates’ positions and backgrounds. For instance, just 37% of all registered voters could correctly identify Giuliani as the leading Republican candidate who favors a woman’s right to choose when it comes to abortion. Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, just 43% correctly identified Giuliani.

The survey finds a wide partisan gap in the campaign issues that Republican and Democratic voters view as very important. Health care, the war in Iraq, and the economy are the leading issues for Democrats; roughly eight-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters cite these issues as very important to their vote. By contrast, just 56% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that health care will be very important in their vote, while 64% cite the war in Iraq.

Far more Republican than Democratic voters say that terrorism and immigration will be very important issues in their voting decisions. Roughly six-in-ten GOP voters (63%) say immigration will be very important, compared with fewer than half of Democratic voters (47%).

Abortion is not a top-tier issue among either Democratic or Republican voters. Only about four-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaning voters (43%), and slightly fewer Democrats (38%), say that abortion will be very important to their voting decisions. Among Republicans, abortion rates about as important as the environment.

The survey finds that President Bush’s job approval rating has declined significantly since April. Bush’s approval rating stands at 29% – the lowest of his presidency – down from 35% two months ago. Bush has lost substantial support from his Republican base. Only about two-thirds of Republicans (65%) approve of Bush’s job performance, which also is the lowest mark of his presidency. As recently as April, 77% of Republicans approved of the way Bush was handling his job as president.

The Republican Field

Giuliani, McCain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain the most visible GOP candidates among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. But the visibility gap between them and other GOP candidates has narrowed since February. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, in particular, has become much better known. Fully 72% say they have heard of Romney, up from 46% in February. Former Govs. Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee, and Sens. Sam Brownback and Chuck Hagel also are better known among Republican and Republican-leaning voters than they were a few months ago.

Overall, solid majorities of Republican voters (and independents who lean Republican) say there is a good chance or some chance they would vote for four declared or possible Republican candidates, based on those who have heard of the candidates. Giuliani continues to draw the most support among those who say there is a good or some chance they would vote for a candidate: 76% say there is a good or some chance they would vote for Giuliani, compared with 66% for Fred Thompson, 65% for McCain, and 60% for Romney.

Giuliani and McCain draw about the same levels of potential support as they did in February. Romney has gained modestly since then; currently 24% of Republican and Republican-leading voters say there is a good chance they would vote for him, compared with 15% in February. Overall 60% say there is a good or some chance they would support the former Massachusetts governor, although a sizable minority (32%) continues to say there is no chance they would vote for him.

About half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters (49%) say there is at least some chance they could support Gingrich; notably, as many GOP voters say there is a good chance they would vote for the former House speaker as say that about McCain (20% each). But the proportion of Republican voters who say there is no chance they would vote for Gingrich is much higher (46% vs. 28% for McCain).

Thompson’s Appeal

Conservative Republican voters are substantially more enthusiastic about Thompson, Romney and Gingrich than are more moderate or liberal members of the party. Thompson is the most appealing candidate in the field to conservative Republicans – 43% say there is a good chance they would support him. By comparison, just 28% of moderate and liberal Republicans say there is a good chance they would vote for Thompson, placing him 10 points behind Giuliani among this group of voters.

Neither Giuliani nor McCain’s support divides along ideological lines. About the same share of conservative (36%) as moderate and liberal (38%) Republicans say there is a good chance they would vote for Giuliani. McCain’s appeal is more limited – only about one-in-five Republicans, regardless of ideology, express the same level of support for his candidacy.

Among Republican voters, 43% are aware of Giuliani’s position, and there is little difference between conservatives and moderate or liberal Republicans. Moreover, just 44% of Republican voters who cite abortion as a very important issue can identify Giuliani as the candidate who supports a woman’s right to choose. However, nearly twice as many Republican and Republican-leaning voters who rate abortion as very important say there is no chance they would vote for Giuliani, compared with those who view abortion as less important (27% vs. 15%).

Issues and the GOP Field

As evidenced by the low awareness of Giuliani’s position on abortion, issues play only a modest role in candidate evaluations at this stage of the campaign. Yet there are relevant links between voters’ issue priorities and their candidate preferences. For example, despite the fact that most Republicans who prioritize abortion don’t know Giuliani’s position, he does garner somewhat less interest from these voters than from Republicans who rate this a lower priority.

The roughly three-quarters of Republicans who rate terrorism as a very important campaign issue express substantially more enthusiasm for many of the candidates – more say there is a “good chance” they would vote for Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and Gingrich than among Republicans who see terrorism as less important.

Republicans who rate immigration as a very important issue express more serious consideration of Gingrich, Romney and Thompson than do those who see it as less important.

The Democratic Field

While several lesser known Republican candidates have gained in familiarity over the past few months, this has not been the case among Democrats. Sen. Joe Biden, Gov. Bill Richardson, Rep. Dennis Kucinich and Sen. Chris Dodd are not much more visible among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters than they were in February.

Among declared or possible Democratic candidates, four draw substantial support. Eight-in-ten Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters say there is a good or some chance they would vote for Sen. Hillary Clinton, while 76% say they would consider voting for Sen. Barack Obama. Somewhat fewer Democratic voters say they would consider voting for former Vice President Al Gore (69% good/some chance), or former Sen. John Edwards (68%).

While comparable percentages of Democratic voters say there is at least some chance they would vote for Gore and Edwards, more say there is a good chance they would vote for Gore (34% vs. 24% for Edwards). In February, about the same numbers said there was a good chance that they would vote for each man (27% Gore, 26% Edwards).

Reflecting their more general engagement in the early stages of the 2008 campaign, liberal Democrats are more enthusiastic about many of the leading candidates than their more conservative and moderate counterparts.

About half (51%) of the liberal Democrats who have heard of Hillary Clinton say there is a good chance they would support her, compared with 41% among moderate and conservative Democrats who have heard of her. The gap in enthusiasm is at least as large for Obama, 51% of liberals who have heard of him say there is a good chance they will support him, compared with 35% of moderate and conservative Democrats.

Issues and the Democratic Field

As with Republican voters, issue priorities among Democrats have, at best, a modest link with candidate enthusiasm at this stage of the campaign. For example, the priority Democratic voters place on such issues as abortion and immigration has no significant link with how they view the candidates.

Health care is rated as a very important campaign issue by 82% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, and 47% of these voters say there is a good chance they would vote for Hillary Clinton. By comparison, 35% of the minority of Democrats who rate this as a less important issue say there is a good chance they would vote for Clinton. The emphasis a Democratic voter places on health care is unrelated to views of the other major candidates.

Similarly, Democratic voters who rate terrorism as a very important campaign issue express substantially more interest in Clinton’s candidacy (49% say there is a good chance they would support her) than do Democratic voters who place less emphasis on terrorism (36%).

While eight-in-ten Democrats say Iraq will be a very important issue in deciding who to vote for, there are no clear signs that those who say this view the candidates all that differently at this point. Democratic voters who prioritize the environment are more enthusiastic about Al Gore’s candidacy (38% good chance) than those who do not (26% good chance). These environmentally-oriented Democratic voters also express more interest in Clinton and Edwards as well.

Bush Job Approval

For the first time in Pew Research Center polling, disapproval of President Bush’s job performance outnumbers approval by more than two-to-one (61% disapprove, 29% approve). Bush’s job approval is down six points from April, and is three points below the previous low measured in November and December of 2006.

The decline in Bush’s support is most notable among Republicans. Just under two-thirds (65%) of Republicans approve of the President’s performance today, down from 77% in April. This drop is apparent among both the conservative and moderate wings of the party. The proportion of conservative Republicans giving a positive rating declined 12 points to an all-time low of 74%. The proportion of moderate and liberal Republicans giving a positive rating fell 11 points (to 52%), also an all-time low.

White evangelical Protestants have been one of the groups consistently backing George W. Bush throughout his presidency. In the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, when the president’s overall job approval spiked to 86% nationwide it was as high as 95% among white evangelicals. As recently as December 2004, more than three-quarters of white evangelicals gave the president a positive performance review. But the current survey finds just 44% of white evangelicals expressing approval of the president’s job performance; roughly the same number (46%) say they disapprove.

Republicans More Engaged in Campaign

Overall, a third of voters say they are giving “a lot” of thought to the 2008 presidential candidates, compared with 29% in April. Since December, more Democrats than Republicans said they have given a lot of thought to the candidates. In April, 37% of Democrats said they were giving a great deal of thought to the candidates, compared with 27% of Republicans.

However, in the current survey identical proportions of Democrats and Republicans (33% each) say they are giving a lot of thought to the candidates. Independents also are more engaged by the campaign; 32% say they are giving a great deal of thought to the candidates, up from 25% in April.

Profiles of Candidate Support

Fred Thompson attracts strong potential support from men and older people, as well as from conservatives. A profile of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who say there is a good chance they will vote for Thompson shows that 70% are male and 65% are age 50 or older. Nearly three-quarters of those who say there is a good chance they would vote for Thompson are self-described conservatives (74%).

Giuliani’s potential base of support is younger than Thompson’s and less heavily male. More than half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who would strongly consider voting for Giuliani are under age 50 (53%). Roughly six-in-ten are conservatives (61%). Notably, just 39% of possible Giuliani supporters attend church at least once a week; by contrast, half or more of those who say there is a good chance they would vote for the other leading GOP candidates attend church at least weekly.

Among those who say there is a good chance they would vote for Romney, 64% attend church at least weekly. In addition, roughly half of Republican and Republican-leaning voters who say there is a good chance they would vote for Romney have annual household incomes of at least $75,000 a year (52%).

A profile of McCain’s potential support shows that 61% are self-described conservatives – a smaller proportion than for any other leading GOP candidate except for Giuliani. Like Giuliani, McCain draws about half of his potential support from those under age 50 (51%).

Profile of Democratic Support

Among leading Democratic candidates, Clinton draws disproportionate support from those with a high school education or less. More than half of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who say there is a good chance they would vote for Clinton have a high school education or less (54%).

By contrast, a relatively large proportion of Obama’s potential support comes from college graduates (40% vs. 26% for Clinton). In addition, roughly a quarter of Democratic voters who say there is a good chance they would vote for Obama are African American (28% vs. 20% for Clinton).

Nearly nine-in-ten Democratic voters who say there is a good chance they would vote for Edwards are white (87%) – the highest proportion for any leading Democratic candidate. In addition, more than half of Edwards’ potential supporters are age 50 and older (55%).

Public support for the war in Iraq continues to decline, as a growing number of political independents are turning against the war. Overall, a 53% majority of Americans believe the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible – up five points in the past month and the highest percentage favoring a troop pullout since the war began nearly four years ago.

Confidence in a successful outcome in Iraq, which remained fairly high last year even as perceptions of the situation grew negative, also has eroded. The public is now evenly divided over whether the U.S. is likely to achieve its goals in Iraq – 47% believe it will definitely or probably succeed, while 46% disagree. Three months ago, 53% saw success as at least probable and 41% disagreed.

The latest nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Feb. 7-11 among 1,509 Americans, paints a bleak picture of public opinion about the war. Fully two-thirds of Americans (67%) say things are not going well with the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and solid majorities say the U.S. is losing ground in preventing a civil war (68%), reducing civilian casualties (66%), and defeating the insurgents militarily (55%).

In recent surveys, independents had been fairly evenly split over whether to bring the troops home. In January, 47% favored a troop withdrawal while 49% said the troops should remain in Iraq until the situation there is stabilized. But in the current survey, 55% of independents say they favor bringing the troops home as soon as possible, compared with 40% who believe the troops should remain.

More Democrats also support a troop withdrawal than did so in January (74% now, 66% then). By contrast, Republicans have been unwavering in their support for keeping the troops in Iraq. By roughly three-to-one (71%-23%), Republicans believe that U.S. forces should remain in Iraq until the situation there is stable, which is nearly identical to opinion among Republicans in January.

While support is increasing for bringing the troops home as soon as possible, most Americans still do not favor an immediate troop pull-out. When asked if the U.S. should remove all troops immediately or gradually over the next year or two, most of those who support a troop pullout – 35% of the general public – say the drawdown should be gradual; just 16% want the troops brought home immediately.

Americans also have become more skeptical that success can be achieved in Iraq. Again, the shift has been most striking among independents. Since the summer, the percentage of independents who believe the U.S. will definitely or probably achieve its goals there has fallen by 14 points (from 54% to 40%). The changes have been less dramatic among Democrats and Republicans; an overwhelming number of Republicans (77%) still say the U.S. either definitely or probably will achieve its goals in Iraq.

As was the case last month, the public expresses broad opposition to President Bush’s plan to dispatch an additional 21,000 troops to Iraq. By roughly two-to-one (63%-31%) the public opposes the ‘troop surge’ plan, which is virtually unchanged since January.

In recent weeks, the Bush administration also has highlighted the increasing threat posed by Iran, both because of its nuclear program and its reported support for anti-U.S. insurgents in Iraq. But public perceptions of the Iranian threat have not increased over the past year. Currently, a quarter of Americans volunteer Iran as the country representing the “greatest danger” to the U.S., the highest percentage naming any single country. In February 2006, a comparable number (27%) cited Iran as the greatest threat to the U.S. And the public is split evenly over whether it is more important for the U.S. to take a firm stand against Iranian actions or to try to avoid a military conflict with Iran (43% each).

While public perceptions of the situation in Iraq have deteriorated, there also is pessimism about the progress being achieved on a number of domestic issues. Across a series of 10 problem areas from the budget deficit to corruption to the environment, more Americans say the country is losing ground than believe it is making progress. The only issue on which there is a divided verdict is international terrorism; even here, more say the country is losing ground (38%) than say it is making progress (30%). On every other issue polled, the gap between those who say the country is making progress and losing ground is at least 20 percentage points.

The greatest pessimism is expressed about the federal budget deficit (64% say the U.S. is losing ground) and the gap between rich and poor (63% losing ground). Nearly as many say the country is losing ground on the way the health care system is working (60%) and on the issue of illegal immigration (59%).

President Bush’s standing with the public has changed little over the past few months. Just a third approve of the president’s job performance, unchanged from last month. And when asked to describe their impression of Bush in a single word, nearly twice as many use negative terms as positive ones. The balance of negative to positive descriptions has changed little in the past year (For more on the terms used to describe Bush, see pg. 13).

Sharp Decline in Iraq Perceptions

Two-thirds of Americans (67%) say that the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going not too well or not at all well. Just 30% say things are going very or fairly well. While perceptions of the state of affairs in Iraq have been deteriorating steadily since the summer of 2003, the past year has seen a particularly sharp decline; in February 2006, 51% said things in Iraq were going at least fairly well, 21 points higher than in the current survey. As a point of comparison, positive evaluations of progress in Iraq fell by about the same amount in the nearly three preceding years (24 points).

In large part, the steep downturn over the past year reflects a crumbling of the GOP unity over progress in Iraq. As recently as a year ago, more than three-quarters of Republicans (77%) believed things were going at least fairly well in Iraq – a position most Democrats and independents then rejected. But today, a bare 51% majority of Republicans say the situation in Iraq is going well, down 26 points from a year ago.

Democrats and independents, already downbeat about Iraq, have become even more so. By a margin of 83%-15%, Democrats say things are not going well in Iraq today, and more than two-thirds of independents (69%) share this view. Comparatively, Republicans remain somewhat upbeat. However, with 47% of Republicans also rating the situation poorly, the partisan gap over how things are going is narrower today than it has been since the earliest months of the conflict.

From Bad to Worse

Increasingly, Americans see a lack of progress in Iraq across a wide range of objectives. Most notably, roughly two-thirds (68%) believe the U.S. is losing ground in terms of preventing a civil war between various religious and ethnic groups, up from just 48% a year ago. And about as many (66%) believe that the U.S. is losing ground in reducing the number of civilian casualties in Iraq. In both of these areas, only about one-in-five believe that the U.S. is making progress.

The public’s impression of how the U.S. is doing in establishing democracy in Iraq has also shifted dramatically. As recently as June of last year, most felt progress was being made (55%). But today, just 40% believe the U.S. is making progress toward establishing a democracy, while 47% say we are losing ground.

Republicans Remain Confident of Success

Despite their widespread concerns about the current state of affairs in Iraq, most Republicans remain upbeat about the prospects for the future. More than three-quarters (77%) of Republicans believe the U.S. will definitely or probably succeed in achieving its goals in Iraq. About a third of Democrats (34%) believe the U.S. will succeed, while 61% say it will definitely or probably fail; somewhat more independents think the U.S. is likely to achieve its goals in Iraq.

Overall, public opinion is divided over the prospects for Iraq, with just as many predicting success (47%) as failure (46%). This is a stark slide in optimism overall in recent months. In September, the prevailing view (by a 57% to 35%) margin, was that the U.S. would succeed in achieving its goals in Iraq.

Younger Americans express greater confidence about prospects for success in Iraq than do older people. A slim majority of those under age 50 (52%) predict success in Iraq, compared with just 36% of people age 65 and older. Seniors are no more likely than people in other age categories to predict that America will fail in Iraq. Instead, they simply express greater uncertainty – many refuse to even hazard a guess as to how things might turn out.

Consistent GOP Support for Bush Policy

Just as Republicans remain confident of success in Iraq, they also have consistently supported the Bush administration’s Iraq policy. Roughly three-quarters (76%) say the war was the right decision, which is unchanged from January and virtually the same as in August 2006. Last February, GOP support for the decision to go to war was only modestly higher (81%).

Similarly, stable majorities of Republicans believe U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the situation there is stabilized; 71% say that now, which also is about the same as in last August (72%) and February (73%).

Moreover, the number of Republicans who say more troops are needed in Iraq increased sharply after Bush announced the surge plan last month. Currently, 42% of Republicans say more U.S. forces are needed in Iraq; that is a bit lower than last month (47%). But twice as many Republicans now say more troops are needed than did so last August (42% vs. 21%).

Congress vs. Bush

Generally, public reactions to Bush’s troop increase have remained largely unchanged since last month. Roughly six-in-ten (63%) oppose the plan to send more troops into Iraq, and as many as 45% of Americans would like to see Congress try to block Bush’s plan by withholding funding for the additional forces. Among Democrats, roughly two-thirds (68%) want Congress to stop funding in an effort to block the troop buildup.

Overall, just 21% of Americans say the president has a clear plan for how to deal with Iraq, a figure that has not changed substantially over the past year. Among those who favor the troop increase, about half (52%) say the president has a clear plan for Iraq, compared with just 6% of people who oppose the surge.

Americans are just as skeptical about the Democrats’ approach on Iraq – 20% say the party leaders have a clear plan for how to deal with the situation, while 68% say they do not. Even among those who favor congressional action to block Bush’s proposed troop increase, just 29% believe the Democratic leaders have a clear alternative.

Where Do Republicans in Congress Stand?

The public is clearly aware of the opposition to Bush’s plan among Democrats in Congress. Eight-in-ten say most Congressional Democrats oppose Bush on this issue, and seven-in-ten say that a majority in Congress is against the surge.

But from the public’s perspective, there is far less clarity about where Republicans in Congress stand. While 44% say that Bush’s plan is backed by a majority of Congressional Republicans, 31% believe that most Republicans oppose the plan.

To some extent, this may be wishful thinking on the part of opponents of the surge, who are as likely to say that most Republicans side with them (38%) as side with Bush (39%). Proponents of Bush’s plan mostly believe that a majority of Republicans in Congress share their view (57%). But even here, 20% believe that Republicans in Congress oppose the president on this issue, and many others either think the party leadership is split (5%) or are unsure where they stand (18%).

Divided Over Iran

About a third of Americans (34%) say they have read or heard a lot about reports that Iran may be providing weapons to insurgent groups in Iraq. Public awareness of this issue is somewhat lower than it was regarding Iran’s nuclear program last September (41%).

Overall, Americans are evenly divided over whether it is more important to “take a firm stand” against Iran or to avoid a military conflict with Iran. The political and ideological differences over how to approach Iran resemble the divisions over Iraq. Nearly two-thirds of conservative Republicans (65%) and a smaller majority of moderate and liberal Republicans (55%) believe it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran; among Democrats, majorities of liberals (60%), and conservatives and moderates (51%), say it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran.

In addition, 40% of conservative Republicans cite Iran as the country that represents the greatest danger to the United States; no more than three-in-ten in any other partisan group identifies Iran as the country presenting the greatest danger. However, somewhat fewer conservative Republicans name Iran as the biggest threat to the U.S. than did so a year ago (48%).

Major Issues: Few See Progress

The public is generally dubious about whether progress is being achieved on major issues facing the country. Of 10 issues tested, international terrorism is the only one on which as many as 30% believe the country is currently making progress. Even on terrorism, however, the number saying progress is being made has declined (from 40% in March 2002).

Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the country is losing ground on the federal budget deficit (64%) and on the gap between rich and poor (63%). Nearly as many say the country is losing ground on the way the health care system is working (60%) and on the issue of illegal immigration (59%).

Majorities also say that the country is losing ground on moral standards and ethics (55%), and on environmental pollution (52%). Nearly half (47%) see the nation slipping on the availability of good paying jobs and on the issue of political corruption. Slightly fewer believe we are losing ground on the quality of public education (45%).

The largest change in recent perceptions has occurred on the environment, where there has been a 15-point increase since May 2005 in the view that the country is losing ground (from 37% to 52%). This shift has occurred as the debate over global climate change has intensified. A January Pew poll found that 77% of the public believes there is sol
id evidence that global warming is occurring, and 55% say that it is a problem that requires immediate government action.

Since May 2005, there has been a seven-point increase in the perception that the country is losing ground on the issue of illegal immigration. The level of concern about this issue (59%) now nearly matches its high point in Pew’s polling; in April 1995, 62% said the country was losing ground on illegal immigration.

Somewhat fewer Americans believe the country is losing ground on job availability and public education than did so in May 2005. About half (47%) say the country is losing ground on jobs, down from 55% in May 2005. The number saying that the country is losing ground on public education has slipped by five points (from 50% to 45%).

Partisan Perceptions of Progress

There are significant partisan differences in views of whether progress is being achieved, or lost, on each of these issues. The largest partisan gap is over the environment, where 63% of Democrats but only 31% of Republicans see the country losing ground.

However, the belief that the country is losing ground in environmental pollution has grown as much among Republicans as among Democrats over the past two years (up 12 points for both). An even bigger change occurred among independents; 54% now say we are losing ground on the environment, up from 38% in 2005.

Partisan differences on several other issues are nearly as large as over the environment. Three-quarters of Democrats say the country is losing ground on the federal budget deficit, compared with 47% of Republicans. Comparable differences are evident in views of whether the U.S. is losing ground on the rich-poor gap (28 points) and job availability (27 points).

The only issues on which more Republicans than Democrats say the country is losing ground are moral and ethical standards and illegal immigration. About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say the U.S. is losing ground on illegal immigration, up from 58% in May 2005; just 53% of Democrats believe the country is losing ground on this issue. On moral standards, 67% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats say the country is losing ground. White evangelicals (71%), in particular, believe the U.S. is falling behind on this issue.

Lower Grades for the Economy

In December, there was a slight improvement in the public’s assessments of the economy, but this month’s poll shows a reversal of that trend. Fewer than one-in-three Americans (31%) currently rate the country’s economic conditions as excellent or good, while 68% say the state of the economy is either fair or poor.

Republicans, however, continue to see this issue very differently than do Democrats or independents. A majority (56%) of Republicans rate the economy as excellent or good, compared with only 15% of Democrats and 30% of independents. The partisan gap in views of the nation’s economy has increased dramatically in recent years; opinions of the economy were far less politically polarized during the 1990s.

There also is a wide gender gap in economic perceptions: 38% of men say the economy is excellent or good, compared with 26% of women.

Education and income also are associated with views of the economy, with college graduates (41% excellent or good) and people with annual household incomes of at least $100,000 (43% excellent or good) especially likely to say the country’s economic health is strong.

Public expectations about the future of the economy also have grown slightly more negative since the end of last year. In December, 22% said that in one year economic conditions in the country would be better, while 18% said they would be worse. In the current survey, 17% believe the economy will get better and 20% say it will get worse. Most Americans (58%) continue to believe the economy will be about the same in a year as it is now; 56% said that in December.

When asked about the job situation in their local community, Americans are slightly less negative. About four-in-ten (39%) say there are plenty of jobs available locally, which is virtually unchanged from December (40%). The jobs climate varies considerably by region, with opportunities much more common in the West (48% say plenty of jobs available) and South (46%) than in the Midwest (30%) or East (26%). Assessments also differ along party lines, with most Republicans (51%) seeing jobs available in their communities and most Democrats (59%) saying jobs are hard to find. Among independents, 38% say plenty of jobs are available and 47% say they are scarce.

Personal Finances

Americans are evenly divided between those who see their personal financial situation as fair or poor (50%) and those who rate it as excellent or good (49%). This measure also is basically unchanged from December, and there has been very little movement on this question over the last several years. Republicans (62% excellent or good) are much more positive about their personal finances than are Democrats (42% excellent or good) or independents (48% excellent or good). And positive views of personal finances are strongly correlated with income and education – 84% of those with household incomes of $100,000 or more and 68% of college graduates rate their finances as excellent or good.

Looking to the future, Americans remain optimistic that their personal financial situation will improve; 63% believe their finances will improve either a lot (11%) or some (52%) over the next year, down just slightly from December, when 67% (10% a lot, 57% some) took an optimistic view. Only 15% think their situation will get worse (12% a little worse, 3% a lot worse), while 19% volunteer that they think it will stay about the same.

The wealthiest Americans are among the most optimistic about their economic prospects over the coming year (74% of those with household incomes of $100,000 or greater say excellent or good), but even among those with household incomes of $20,000 or less, a narrow majority (52%) believe their situation will improve.

Bush…In a Word

George W. Bush’s job approval rating stands at 33% in the current survey, virtually unchanged from a month ago. The general dissatisfaction with the president also is reflected in the single-word descriptions that people use to describe their impression of the president. While the public has consistently offered a mix of positive and negative terms to describe Bush, the tone of the words used turned more negative in early 2006 and remains the case today. In the current survey, nearly half (47%) describe Bush in negative terms, such as “arrogant,” “idiot,” and “ignorant.” Just 27% use words that are clearly positive, such as “honest,” “good,” “integrity,” and “leader.”

As was the case a year ago, the word mentioned more frequently than any other is “incompetent.” By comparison, from 2000 through 2005 “honest” was the word most frequently volunteered description of the president. Even among the positive words used there has been a decided change in tone over the years. Superlatives such as “excellent” or “great” were relatively frequent in the early years of Bush’s presidency, but are offered less frequently today.

Politicians and political reporters are scrambling to book flights for New Hampshire and other presidential primary states, but the public is far from engaged in the jockeying for 2008. About a quarter of Americans (23%) say they have given a lot of thought to candidates who may be running for president, while another 36% say they have given some thought to the candidates.

Even most Americans who have given some thought to the 2008 candidates could not actually name one they have considered supporting. Nearly three-quarters (74%) could not name a Republican whom they have thought most about possibly voting for; when asked the same question about Democratic candidates, 61% did not name a candidate.

Among Democratic candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton is named most frequently ­ at 19% ­ by those who have given at least some thought to the 2008 field. On the Republican side, 14% volunteered Sen. John McCain as the candidate they have thought most about possibly supporting.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 1,502 adults from Dec. 6-10, finds that more Democrats than Republicans or independents have given a lot of thought to possible candidates in 2008. Among Democrats, nearly a third (31%) have given a lot of thought to the candidates, compared with 21% each of Republicans and independents.

Liberal Democrats are considerably more likely than others to say they have given a lot of thought to the 2008 election; 40% have thought about it a lot, compared with 27% of moderate and conservative Democrats, 26% of conservative Republicans, and just 12% of moderate or liberal Republicans.

More Democrats have thought about voting for Sen. Clinton than for any other Democratic candidate; 33% of Democrats who have given at least some thought to the 2008 field named Clinton as the candidate they have thought most about possibly voting for; 18% volunteered Sen. Barack Obama. The two candidates are tied at 13% among independents. However, fewer independents than partisans named any candidate ­ 67% could not name a Democrat and 70% could not name a Republican for whom they have considered voting in 2008.

Among Republicans, 17% of those who have given at least some thought to the 2008 candidates volunteered McCain as the person they have thought most about possibly voting for; 12% named Giuliani. In addition, 17% of independents who have given some thought to the ’08 field also named McCain as their possible choice, more than any other GOP candidate.

Bush Popularity Remains Low

Favorable ratings for President Bush and Vice President Cheney remain largely unchanged over the past eight months. Only about four-in-ten Americans (41%) view the president favorably, while slightly fewer (38%) have a positive opinion of the vice president.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates, recently confirmed as the new secretary of defense, are viewed favorably by about two-thirds (66% each) of those who can rate them. However, nearly half of Americans (48%) are not familiar enough with Gates to give a rating.

Hillary Clinton and John McCain are both popular with the American public. Six-in-ten have a favorable view of Clinton, while nearly two-thirds (66%) express a positive opinion of McCain. McCain’s popularity extends beyond his own party. The Republican has a favorable rating among six-in-ten Democrats, including a majority of liberal Democrats (56%), and among 65% of independents. Sen. Clinton is also popular with independents ­ nearly six-in-ten (58%) view her positively ­ but her favorability among Republicans stands at just 25%.

Six years after leaving office, former President Bill Clinton continues to have a positive image ­ nearly two-thirds (65%) have a favorable opinion of him. The former president is viewed positively by about nine-in-ten Democrats (91%) and 64% of independents. In May 2000, during his final year in office, just 75% of Democrats and 50% of independents expressed favorable opinions of Clinton. And while only about a third of Republicans (32%) express a favorable view of the former president, this is up significantly from almost seven years ago, when only about one-in-five (21%) had a positive opinion of then-President Clinton.

Rep. Nancy Pelosi receives a favorable rating from a majority (54%) of those who could rate her. The incoming speaker of the House is unfamiliar to about four-in-ten Americans (41%). Pelosi is slightly more popular than Newt Gingrich was in December 1994, when just under half of the public (47%) expressed a favorable view of him; 47% could not rate Gingrich at the time.

Pelosi’s standing among Democrats and Republicans is the mirror image of Gingrich’s in 1994. More than seven-in-ten Democrats (73%) express a positive view of their party’s leader; the same share of Republicans had a favorable view of Gingrich twelve years ago. Conversely, about a quarter of Republicans (26%) view Pelosi favorably, while Gingrich was popular among a similar proportion of Democrats (25%). Pelosi’s advantage over Gingrich comes from slightly higher support among independents ­ a majority (52%) have a favorable view of the Democrat, while 44% had a favorable view of Gingrich in December of 1994.

Read the full analysis at pewresearch.org