As the March 1 deadline for a possible budget sequester approaches, a new national survey finds limited public support for reducing spending for a range of specific programs, including defense, entitlements, education and health care.

For 18 of 19 programs tested, majorities want either to increase spending or maintain it at current levels. The only exception is assistance for needy people around the world. Nonetheless, as many say that funding for aid to the needy overseas should either be increased (21%), or kept the same (28%), as decreased (48%).

The survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Feb. 13-18, 2013 among 1,504 adults, finds little change in attitudes about government spending since 2011. One notable exception: somewhat fewer support reducing military defense spending, which would bear a major share of the sequester cuts.

In the current poll, 24% say that if they were making up the federal government’s budget this year they would decrease spending for military defense, down from 30% two years ago. More than seven-in-ten either support increasing defense spending (32%) or maintaining it at current levels (41%).

There continue to be sizable partisan differences in views of funding for government programs. For most, substantially larger shares of Republicans than Democrats support decreased funding. Yet there are only two possible reductions that draw majority support from Republicans – foreign aid (70%) and unemployment assistance (56%). There is no program among the 19 included in the survey that even a plurality of Democrats wants to see decreased.

An earlier report on this survey showed that 70% think it is essential for the president and Congress to pass major legislation to reduce the federal budget deficit this year. That portion of the survey, conducted in collaboration with USA TODAY, also found that more Americans want the focus of deficit-reduction efforts to be mostly on spending reductions rather than tax increases.

Yet the survey also finds higher percentages support increases rather than decreases in spending for education, veterans’ benefits, entitlements and other programs. Six-in-ten (60%) say they would increase education funding, while 53% want funding for veterans’ benefits and services to grow and 41% say the same about spending on Social Security.

Partisans Differ on Gov’t Spending

In 16 of 19 areas, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to support cutting spending. Only in the areas of military and anti-terrorism spending are Democrats more supportive of cuts than Republicans. There are no partisan differences about decreasing funding for veterans’ benefits.

The largest partisan gaps are over aid to needy people both in the U.S. and abroad. Seven-in-ten Republicans (70%) say foreign aid should be decreased, compared with just a quarter (25%) of Democrats. Similarly, while 56% of Republicans say spending on unemployment assistance should be decreased, just 13% of Democrats agree.

By large margins, Democrats also are less supportive of cuts to health care, environmental protection and scientific research. While 44% of Republicans say federal funding for health care should be decreased, just 7% of Democrats do (in fact, a majority of Democrats – 58% – say federal spending on health care should be increased).

While Democrats are more likely than Republicans to favor cutting military spending, about as many Democrats say funding for the military should be increased as decreased (28% vs. 32%), and about twice as many say anti-terrorism funding should be increased as decreased (36% vs. 18%)

Conversely, while Republicans are more supportive than Democrats of cutting funding for Medicare, Social Security and food and drug inspection, these remain minority positions within the GOP. More Republicans want to increase, rather than decrease, funding for Social Security (35% vs. 17%). And Republicans are as likely to say funding for Medicare should be increased as to say it should be decreased (24% vs. 21%).

Little Change in Opinions

Public attitudes about government spending are relatively unchanged from 2011; across 14 of the 16 issues where 2011 trends are available there is no significant shift in public opinion over the last few years.

In contrast to most other areas, there has been a drop in public support for increasing spending to provide economic assistance to needy people in the U.S.: 27% want this funding increased today, down from 42% in 2011. Although there remain significant partisan and demographic differences in support for spending on the needy in the U.S., the drop in support for increasing spending is seen across both party and socioeconomic lines.

Attitudes about military defense spending, which would be subject to the largest cuts under the budgets sequester, have also shifted slightly. There is now is somewhat less support for decreasing spending on military defense (24% today, 30% in 2011).

The overall stability of public opinion over the last two years stands in contrast to the shift from 2009 to 2011, when there was a drop in support for increases in spending across many of these same areas (See Fewer Want Spending to Grow, But Most Cuts Remain Unpopular, February 10, 2011).

Long-Term Trends

While there has been little change in public views on government spending within the last two years, the long-term trend over the past quarter-century is, for the most part, away from spending growth.

When the question was first asked in 1987, a 64% majority felt that Social Security spending should be increased; this stands at 41% in the new survey. Similarly, support for increased federal spending on health care has fallen from 72% to 38% since 1987, and the share favoring more spending on environmental protection has declined from 59% to 33%.

While the trends are shorter, two other issues have seen similar trajectories. When first asked in 1994, 71% supported more federal spending on combating crime. This figure stands at 41% today. And even just over the past 12 years, the share saying education spending should be increased has fallen from 76% to 60%.

Views of Defense Spending

Public views on military defense spending have shifted substantially over the past quarter-century. In 1990, during George H.W. Bush’s presidency, 40% wanted to decrease defense spending and just 18% favored increasing it. By contrast, in February 2002, following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a 60% majority backed increased spending on military defense, with just 5% saying spending should be lowered.

Currently, there is no public consensus on defense spending: 32% say it should be increased, virtually unchanged from 31% two years ago. About a quarter (24%) say it should be decreased, down from 30% in 2011. And a plurality (41%) say defense spending should be kept the same.

Beyond the significant political divide over defense spending, there also are differences of opinion by age and education. Those younger than 30 are far more likely to support defense spending cuts (36%) than are those 65 and older (13%).

The divide also is stark along educational lines: college graduates are twice as likely to back defense spending cuts compared with those who have not attended college (38% vs. 18%).

Paul Ryan’s selection to the Republican ticket has put the issue of Medicare squarely on the 2012 campaign agenda. And the latest Pew Research Center survey continues to find the public is aware of a proposal to gradually shift Medicare to a system of vouchers and is, on balance, more opposed than supportive of the idea.

The survey, conducted August 16-19, 2012 among 1,005 adults nationwide, finds 72% have heard a lot or a little about a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. And among those who are aware, the idea remains unpopular; by a 49% to 34% margin more oppose than favor the idea. This is virtually unchanged from public reactions a little over a year ago, when Republicans in the House voted in favor of this proposal as part of the “Ryan plan.”

More generally, while surveys consistently find that dealing with the deficit is a high priority for Americans, there is little support for doing so if it means entitlement cuts. When asked whether it is more important to reduce the budget deficit or to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, Americans continue to prioritize maintaining benefits.

The public offers a relatively negative assessment of Mitt Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate. Nearly half (46%) say Ryan is an only fair or poor choice, while 28% say he is an excellent or good choice. By comparison, reactions to John Kerry’s selection of John Edwards in 2004, and Bill Clinton’s selection of Al Gore in 1992, were more positive than negative.

But public assessments of Ryan’s Democratic counterpart are even more negative. Just 27% say Joe Biden has done an excellent or good job as vice president, while 56% say his job performance has been only fair or poor.

Romney’s selection of Ryan as his running mate received less public attention than the selection of Palin and Biden to the Republican and Democratic tickets in 2008. Fewer than half (42%) say they heard a lot about the choice of Ryan this year, while 57% heard little or nothing. In 2008, 56% said they had heard a lot about McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin and 58% heard a lot about Obama’s selection of Joe Biden in the weeks following those announcements.

At this point, most Americans do not associate Ryan with the proposal to change Medicare. Just 23% of those who have heard about the idea of shifting Medicare to a system of credits to buy private insurance identify it as Ryan’s. Nearly as many (17%) say Barack Obama proposed this, while 44% do not know who proposed it.

Medicare Vouchers

As has consistently been the case, seniors express the strongest opposition to changing Medicare into a program that offers future participants credits toward purchasing private health insurance coverage. People age 65 and older who have heard about this proposal oppose it by a 55% to 24% margin, with fully 46% saying they are strongly opposed. There also is more opposition than support among people age 50 to 64, while those under age 50 are more divided.

The issue also splits along partisan lines with Democrats opposed to such a change by a 61% to 28% margin, while Republicans are more likely to favor it, though by a slimmer 46% to 32% margin. Among independents, 49% are opposed to this sort of gradual shift toward Medicare vouchers, while 34% are in favor.

Entitlements vs. Deficit Reduction

In January, 69% said reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up significantly from recent years. But the public rejects changing Social Security and Medicare benefits to achieve deficit reduction.

Overall, 51% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with 33% who say it is more important to take steps to reduce the budget deficit; 11% volunteer that they are equally important.

Democrats prioritize maintaining benefits over deficit reduction by a wide 64% to 23% margin. By contrast, Republicans are somewhat more likely to say taking steps to reduce the budget deficit (48%) is more important than keeping Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are (34%). About half of independents (48%) prioritize maintaining benefits, compared with 35% who say reducing the deficit is more important.

Fully 61% of seniors say maintaining benefits is more important, just 22% say reducing the budget deficit should take priority. And those with low family incomes overwhelmingly favor maintaining current benefits: 66% say it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are, compared with just 16% who say it is more important to reduce the deficit.

Low Ratings for Ryan Choice, Biden Performance

Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate receives a more negative than positive reaction from the public. Overall, 46% say Ryan is an only fair (23%) or poor (22%) choice, while just 28% call him an excellent (14%) or good (14%) choice; 26% do not offer a rating.

Six-in-ten (60%) Republicans call Ryan an excellent or good choice, 20% say he is an only fair or poor choice and 20% do not offer an evaluation. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) conservative Republicans say Ryan is an excellent or good choice, just 16% give the selection an only fair or poor rating. Independents view the Ryan selection somewhat more negatively than positively – 30% call him an excellent or good choice, compared with 42% who say he is only a fair or poor choice; 27% of independents offer no rating. Democrats view the Ryan choice overwhelmingly negatively – 70% say he is an only fair or poor selection; just 8% say excellent or good.

Views of the Ryan vice presidential selection are somewhat less positive than those for John Edwards in 2004 and Al Gore in 1992. In 2004, 49% said Edwards was an excellent or good choice, 31% called him an only fair or poor choice and 20% did not offer an opinion. In 1992, 40% said Gore was an excellent or good choice compared with 27% who said he was an only fair or poor choice; a third (33%) offered no opinion.

Joe Biden receives more negative ratings for the job he has done as vice president. Only 27% say he has done an excellent (7%) or good (20%) job as vice president; about twice as many (56%) say he has done an only fair (31%) or poor (25%) job.

Biden receives tepid ratings from his own party. About half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has done an excellent or good job, while 36% rate his performance as only fair or poor. Liberal Democrats (61% excellent or good) are more likely than conservative and moderate Democrats (46% excellent or good) to rate Biden’s job performance positively. Most independents (59%) and a broad majority of Republicans (87%) say Biden has done an only fair or poor job as vice president.

A Pew Research survey in May of 2011 found that those 65 and older had a negative reaction to Ryan’s plan to change Medicare: 51% opposed the plan (including 43% who opposed it strongly) compared with only 25% who favored the plan. People under the age of 50 offered far more support than those over 50 for Ryan’s Medicare plan.

A June 2011 survey found that most seniors said they were happy with how Medicare and Social Security operated. About six-in-ten (61%) said Medicare does an excellent or good job serving the people it covers; 57% said the same about Social Security. By contrast, most of those under 65 said these programs do an only fair or poor job.

In addition, just 33% of those 65 and older said they think Medicare needs major changes or needs to be completely rebuilt. Similarly, few seniors (30%) supported major changes or a complete rebuilding of Social Security. Support for changing Social Security and Medicare was far higher among those under 65.

Voters 65 and older are much more likely than younger voters to name Social Security as a top potential voting issue. A June 2012 survey found about as many senior voters saying Social Security is the issue that matters most to their vote (45%) as saying jobs (48%).

Seniors – along with the public overall – prioritize the protection of Medicare and Social Security benefits over deficit reduction by wide margins. In June 2011, two-thirds (66%) of those 65 and older said it is more important to keep Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are compared with just (20%) who prioritized deficit reduction.

A wide majority of seniors (66%) said people on Medicare already pay enough of the cost of their health care, compared with 24% who said people on Medicare need to be responsible for more costs to keep the program financially secure. Most seniors (54%) also said low income people should not have their Medicaid benefits taken away, compared with 34% who said states should be able to cut back on who is eligible for Medicaid to deal with budget problems.

Divides in GOP Base over Entitlement Changes

In addition to presenting challenges among seniors, the issue of entitlements divides the GOP base.

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 63% of those with family incomes of $75,000 or more say it is more important to take steps to reduce the budget deficit; a nearly identical percentage (62%) of Republicans with incomes of $30,000 or less say it is more important to maintain Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are.

The income gap among Republicans and Republican leaners is about as large as the difference between GOP supporters of the Tea Party and non-supporters. Among Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party, 57% view deficit reduction as more important than preserving Social Security and Medicare benefits as they are. Among Republicans and leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party, just 36% say that reducing the deficit is more important than maintaining benefits.

For more on entitlements see: “Public Wants Changes in Entitlements, Not Changes in Benefits,” released July 7, 2011 and section six of “The Generation Gap and the 2012 Election,” released November 3, 2011.

In my years of polling, there has never been an issue such as the deficit on which there has been such a consensus among the public about its importance – and such a lack of agreement about acceptable solutions.

When the public was asked in March to volunteer the most important problem facing the nation, only unemployment and the economy were cited more often.

The deficit has also risen in importance in the public mind when Americans are asked at the beginning of each year what they believe to be the top national priorities for the president and the Congress.

The Pew Research Center began measuring national priorities in 1997. Jobs, education, Social Security, Medicare and the budget deficit were at the top of the list then just as they are now, in 2012.

The deficit had earlier slipped as a priority during the last years of the Clinton administration when the budget was in surplus and following the 9/11 attacks when terrorism rose as a priority.

Today, however, the budget deficit stands out as one of the fastest growing priorities for Americans, rising 16 percentage points since 2007 and ranking third with 69% calling it a top priority. Only the economy and jobs, ranking first and second at 86% and 82% respectively, have registered bigger increases over this period – hardly surprising, given the financial meltdown that began in 2008 and whose impact is still being felt today.

While an increasing number of Americans share concern about the deficit, the issue has often been one that generates intense reactions among Republicans given their traditional preference for a smaller and less activist federal government.

The number of Republicans ranking the budget deficit as a top priority has spiked to 84% compared to 68% a year ago, and 42% five years ago. Concern has also risen among Democrats and independents, but nowhere near to the degree it has among Republicans. About two-thirds (66%) of Democrats rank the deficit as a top priority compared to 61% last year and 57% in 2007. Just over six-in-ten (62%) of independents say the deficit is a top priority, compared to 65% a year ago and 53% in 2007.

The Republican emphasis on the deficit is reflected in the voting priorities of those who favor presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and those who support President Obama.

Voters who rank the federal budget deficit as a top priority favor Romney over Obama by a 52% to 42% margin.

Concerns over the debt has become a troubling issue on both sides of the Atlantic. However, the politics surrounding it differs in the U.S. A median 81% of the publics in European countries regard the size of the national debt as a major threat to economic well-being; 71% of Americans share that view.

But the unease over the national debt is far more likely to be a partisan issue in the U.S. than it is in Europe.  Europeans, whatever their political leanings, tend to see indebtedness the same way. The left-right divide in concern is five percentage points in Germany, four in France, and three in Britain. It is 20 points in the United States, with only 59% of liberals ranking debt as a major threat to the economy compared with 79% of conservatives.

While there is a clear and broad consensus in the U.S. about the importance of dealing with debt and deficit, that is where the clarity and consensus stops – undermined by the disconnect between the public’s stated desire for a smaller government delivering fewer services, and its resistance to spending cuts and, in other cases, tax increases.

By a margin of 52% to 39%, the largest in five years, Americans express a preference for smaller government as opposed to a larger government providing more services.

But even given that preference, there was not a great deal of support for decreases in spending across a range of issues in a February 2011 survey.

The survey did find that fewer Americans supported spending increases than in previous years, but even with those declines, the number of Americans favoring increases still outnumbered those favoring decreases on 15 of 18 issues tested. In addition, a substantial number are willing to see spending held steady.

The reluctance to cut spending, or support tax increases, was foreshadowed by reaction to the sweeping recommendations issued in December 2010 by the Simpson-Bowles deficit commission created by President Obama. The commission had called for deep cuts in military and domestic spending, reducing or ending popular tax breaks (including the home mortgage interest deduction) and changes to entitlement programs.

While 70% of Americans said at the time that the budget deficit was a major problem that needed to be addressed immediately, they disapproved of the commission’s proposals by a 48% to 30% margin, with 21% expressing no opinion.

When it came to specifics, the public had three kinds of reactions:

About two-thirds or more said “no” to proposals for taxing employer-provided health insurance plans, raising the gasoline tax, reducing federal funding to states and raising the contributions the Medicare recipients pay into the program.

Proposals drawing more moderate opposition – ranging from 52% to 58% – would eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction, raise the Social Security retirement age, and impose a national sales tax.

What the public saw as acceptable included raising the Social Security contribution cap for affluent recipients (64% in favor) and freezing the salaries of federal workers (59% in favor). At the same time, a plurality backed raising taxes on high-income earners by not including them in an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, (47% favored making the cuts available only for those earning less than $250,000 a year, compared to 33% who supported an extension for all).

Many of those findings were echoed in a later May 2011 survey conducted in the run-up to last summer’s fractious debt ceiling debate.

Majorities ranging from 54% to 59% rejected proposals to reduce funding to help lower-income Americans, reducing Social Security benefits for high-income seniors, and raising the Social Security retirement age. More than seven-in-ten opposed reducing funding to states for roads and education, and taxing employer-provided health insurance. The public was divided on limiting the home mortgage deduction interest and cutting agriculture subsidies.

The areas where there was support for cuts included reducing foreign aid (a relatively small part of the budget), raising the Social Security contribution cap, taxing those with annual incomes of over $250,000, limiting tax deductions for large corporations and reducing military commitments overseas.

The  most heated and politically-charged issue when it comes to proposals to deal with the debt/deficit debate is what, if anything, to do about entitlement programs.

The public overwhelmingly regards Social Security as a program that has been good for the country, with 87% holding that view. More than three-quarters (77%) also share the concern that its financial condition is only fair or poor. But that’s where the consensus ends.

There is strong resistance to any cuts in entitlement programs in order to reduce the deficit, with 58% of Americans saying that to maintaining benefits as they are trumps deficit reduction, (35% favor taking steps to reduce the deficit). Nearly six-in-ten (59%) put a higher priority on avoiding any future cuts in benefit amounts than on avoiding Social Security tax increases for workers and employers, with 32% believing that avoiding tax increases is more important.

Agreement that Social Security benefits should be maintained at current levels even if it removes one way to cut the deficit is shared among all age groups.  But beyond that consensus, there are generational divides on a host of issues.

The importance of keeping benefits at current levels is felt more intensely by Baby Boomers and the over-65 Silent generation than it is among Millennials, (62% of Boomers and 64% of Silents want to keep benefits untouched compared to 53% of Millennials). Six-in-ten or more of Gen Xers, Baby Boomers, and Silents want to avoid any future cuts in Social Security benefit amounts, far outnumbering those in their age groups who put the priority on avoiding any Social Security tax increases. Far fewer Millennials (49%) say they want to avoid any future benefit cuts, and more of them (44%) say their priority is to avoid tax increases.

There are also generational divides on proposals that would privatize Social Security and gradually raise the age of eligibility, both of which get a decidedly mixed reaction from those now of retirement age or older.

Fully 86% of Millennials favor changing Social Security to let younger workers invest Social Security taxes in private accounts. Support for that proposal is lower among Gen Xers (69%), Boomers (58%) and Silents (52%). The age divide extends to the idea of changing Medicare so people can use their benefits towards purchasing private health insurance. About three-quarters of Millennials (74%) favor this proposal, compared to 48% of Silents.

When it comes to the proposal to gradually raise the Social Security retirement age, the Silents are at odds with the younger generations. About half (51%) of Silents support this idea, compared to 39% of Boomers, 30% of Gen Xers and 40% of Millennials.

In addition to generational differences, there are sharp partisan disagreements.

About two-thirds (67%) of Democrats oppose future cuts in Social Security compared to 49% of Republicans. On Medicare, 41% of Republicans say its recipients should pay more of their health care costs compared to 23% of Democrats. More than seven-in-ten (72%) Democrats say recipients already pay enough compared to 53% of Republicans.

While the public is resistant to a wide range of proposals to deal with the deficit, it has expressed a solid distaste for the deadlock in Washington.

In late 2011, about two-thirds (65%) wanted their lawmakers to be willing to compromise rather than stand by their principles, even if standing by principles meant no progress was made. That view was held by 74% of Democrats and 67% of independents compared to 52% of Republicans.

The public did signal its flexibility on strategy for dealing with deficits, with a majority favoring a combination of major program cuts and tax increases as part of any agreement. Just 17% said the best approach was using only major spending cuts and just 8% said deficit reduction should be achieved through only tax increases. Democrats were the most likely to favor the combination approach, with 71% holding that view compared to 53% of Republicans. Independents were in between at 63%.

The fact that the parties, in the end, did not break their deadlock exacted a political cost. The debt ceiling fight in the summer of 2011 resulted in the public holding less favorable views of President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner.

Both parties lost ground in public esteem, but the Republicans suffered the biggest setbacks. Americans associated the Republicans with extreme positions while viewing the Democrats as the party of compromise, which is what the public wanted lawmakers to do as the prospect loomed of a federal government default. Opinion of the Republican leadership nose-dived over that summer. At the end of July, 42% of Americans saw Republicans in Congress less favorably after the weeks of debt negotiations, (44% said their opinions were unchanged and 11 percent said their opinion was more favorable).  More generally, the Republican Party’s favorable rating sank to 34% in August 2011 compared to 42% in February, unfavorable views of the GOP rose from 51% to 59%. Democrats continued to get mixed marks, with 43% seeing them favorably and 50% unfavorably (compared to 48% favorable and 45% unfavorable in February).

The high level of disappointment and frustration reflected by this public reaction poses a serious conundrum for those in Washington wrestling with the debt and deficit issue – they are dealing with a public that is demanding solution to a problem which it has declared to be a major priority, but at the same time Americans are resistant, or divided at best, on the sacrifices that would be required to achieve a solution.

The bottom line appears to be that if the deficit and related entitlement programs are to be addressed, it may well have to be in spite of public opinion, not in response to it.

As Americans head to the polls this November, their values and basic beliefs are more polarized along partisan lines than at any point in the past 25 years. Unlike in 1987, when this series of surveys began, the values gap between Republicans and Democrats is now greater than gender, age, race or class divides.

Overall, there has been much more stability than change across the 48 political values measures that the Pew Research Center has tracked since 1987. But the average partisan gap has nearly doubled over this 25-year period – from 10 percentage points in 1987 to 18 percentage points in the new study.

Nearly all of the increases have occurred during the presidencies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama. During this period, both parties’ bases have often been critical of their parties for not standing up for their traditional positions. Currently, 71% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats say their parties have not done a good job in this regard.

With regard to the broad spectrum of values, basic demographic divisions – along lines such as gender, race, ethnicity, religion and class – are no wider than they have ever been. Men and women, whites, blacks and Hispanics, the highly religious and the less religious, and those with more and less education differ in many respects. However, these differences have not grown in recent years, and for the most part pale in comparison to the overwhelming partisan divide we see today.

In recent years, both parties have become smaller and more ideologically homogeneous. Republicans are dominated by self-described conservatives, while a smaller but growing number of Democrats call themselves liberals. Among Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber moderates by about two-to-one. And there are now as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.

But the growing partisan divide over political values is not simply the result of the declining number who identify with the party labels. While many Americans have given up their party identification over the past 25 years and now call themselves independents, the polarization extends also to independents, most of whom lean toward a political party. Even when the definition of the party bases is extended to include these leaning independents, the values gap has about doubled between 1987 and 2012.

Looking ahead to the 2012 election, the largest divides between committed supporters of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are over the scope and role of government in the economic realm. Swing voters, who make up about a quarter of all registered voters, are cross-pressured. Their attitudes on the social safety net and immigration are somewhat closer to those of Romney supporters, while they tilt closer to Obama supporters in opinions about labor unions and some social issues.

In contrast to the widening partisan gap, the new survey finds neither growing class differences in fundamental political values, nor increasing class resentment. As in the past, a substantial majority of Americans agree that “the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.” Yet there are no indications of increasing hostility toward the rich and successful. And there are no signs that lower-income people have become more cynical about an individual’s power to control their destiny or the value of hard work.

At the same time, the proportion of Americans who see a widening gap in living standards between the poor and middle class has grown since the mid-1980s. But the public sees no greater gap in values differences between the middle class and poor over this period.

The polling finds little support for the broad notion of American “declinism.” As has been the case in previous political values surveys, a large majority agrees that “as Americans we can always find a way to solve our problems and get what we want.” The public’s confidence in the nation has not been dulled, even as Americans have become more skeptical about prospects for economic growth.

These are among the principal findings of the latest Pew Research Center American Values survey, conducted April 4-15, 2012, among 3,008 adults nationwide. The values project, which began in 1987 and has been updated 14 times since then, tracks a wide range of the public’s fundamental beliefs. These questions do not measure opinions about specific policy or political questions, but rather the underlying values that ultimately shape those opinions.

Widening Gaps over Social Safety Net, Environmentalism

The survey covers the public’s attitudes on the role and performance of government, the environment, business, labor, equal opportunity, national security and several other dimensions.

Republicans are most distinguished by their increasingly minimalist views about the role of government and lack of support for environmentalism. Democrats have become more socially liberal and secular. Republicans and Democrats are most similar in their level of political engagement.

On some sets of issues, such as views of the social safety net, there already were sizable partisan gaps in Pew Research’s first political values study in 1987. But these differences have widened considerably. On others, such as measures of religiosity and social conservatism, there were only modest differences initially, but these divides also have grown.

Republicans and Democrats are furthest apart in their opinions about the social safety net. There are partisan differences of 35 points or more in opinions about the government’s responsibility to care for the poor, whether the government should help more needy people if it means adding to the debt and whether the government should guarantee all citizens enough to eat and a place to sleep.

On all three measures, the percentage of Republicans asserting a government responsibility to aid the poor has fallen in recent years to 25-year lows.

Just 40% of Republicans agree that “It is the responsibility of the government to take care of people who can’t take care of themselves,” down 18 points since 2007. In three surveys during the George W. Bush administration, no fewer than half of Republicans said the government had a responsibility to care for those unable to care for themselves. In 1987, during the Ronald Reagan’s second term, 62% expressed this view.

Over the past two decades, the public consensus in favor of tougher environmental restrictions has weakened, also primarily because of changing opinions among Republicans.

For the first time in a Pew Research Center political values survey, only about half of Republicans (47%) agree that “there needs to be stricter laws and regulations to protect the environment.” This represents a decline of 17 points since 2009 and a fall of nearly 40 points, from 86%, since 1992.

The partisan gap over this measure was modest two decades ago. Today, roughly twice as many Democrats as Republicans say stricter environmental laws and regulations are needed (93% vs. 47%).

Democrats More Secular, Socially Liberal

Yet the widening partisan divide in political values is not just the result of changing opinions among Republicans. Democrats have shifted their views in a number of areas in recent years, though less dramatically: They have become more secular, more positive in their views of immigrants and more supportive of policies aimed at achieving equal opportunity.

Roughly three-quarters of Democrats (77%) say they “never doubt the existence of God,” as do 76% of independents. The proportion of Democrats saying they never doubt God’s existence has fallen 11 points over the past decade. Among white Democrats, the decline has been 17 points – from 85% in 2002 to 68% currently.

Independents also are less likely to express firm belief in God than in the past. By contrast, the percentage of Republicans saying they never doubt God’s existence is as large today (92%) as it was a decade ago, or a quarter century ago.

There also has been a substantial decline in the share of Democrats saying they “have old-fashioned values about family and marriage.” Just 60% of Democrats currently agree, down from 70% in 2007 and 86% in the first political values survey. Republicans’ views have shown far less change: Currently, 88% say they have old-fashioned values about marriage and family.

Democratic support for doing whatever is necessary to improve the position of minorities, including the possible use of preferences, has increased in recent years. About half (52%) of Democrats agree that “We should make every effort to improve the position of blacks and other minorities, even if it means giving them preferential treatment” – an 11-point increase since 2007.

Republicans’ views have changed little over this period. Just 12% currently agree that all efforts should be taken, including the use of preferential treatment, to improve the position of minorities. Since 1987, the gap between the two parties has about doubled – from 18 points to 40 points.

Class Divides: No Wider than in 1987

While the partisan gaps in political values have increased substantially, class divisions have not. This does not mean there are not significant differences, particularly when it comes to views about whether hard work leads to success and whether success is within an individual’s control. But these differences are generally no wider today than in recent years, or than they were in the initial political values survey.

For the past 25 years, majorities across most groups have rejected the idea that “hard work offers little guarantee of success.” In the current survey, just 35% agree with this statement while 63% disagree. As in the past, those with less education and lower incomes are more likely than those with more education and higher incomes to say that hard work does not ensure success.

Currently, 45% of those with no more than a high school education agree that hard work offers little guarantee of success, compared with 25% of college graduates. The gap was about as large in Pew Research’s first political values study (35% vs.17%).

Among whites who have not completed college, 36% are skeptical that hard work guarantees success; fewer white college graduates agree (24%). The education gap among whites was comparable in 1987 (29% non-college grad, 16% college grad).

There is greater agreement across socioeconomic lines in views of the gap between the rich and poor in this country.

As has been the case in most values surveys, majorities in all educational and income groups agree that “today it’s really true that the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.” In the current survey, 76% of the public agrees with this statement, about the same as the 74% that agreed in 1987.

Still, there is evidence that the public sees greater economic inequality today than it did in the 1980s. About six-in-ten (61%) say the gap in living standards between middle class and poor people has widened over the past 10 years, while just 28% say it has narrowed.

In a 1986 survey by Gallup and the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, just 40% said the gap in the standard of living between the middle class and poor had grown, while about as many (39%) said it had narrowed.

Yet there has been far less change in opinions about whether the values of middle class and poor people are growing apart. In the current survey, 47% say the values of the middle class and poor have gotten more similar over the past 10 years; somewhat fewer (41%) say they have gotten more different. That is little changed from the 1986 survey, when 44% said the values of each had gotten more similar and 33% more different.

Economic Views Sour, But No Decline in Optimism

The survey also finds new evidence of the toll taken by the economic downturn, both on people’s personal financial assessments and their views of the country’s economic prospects. Just 53% say they are “pretty well satisfied with the way things are going for me financially.” That matches the lowest percentage ever, reached three years ago. People with family incomes of $75,000 or more express greater satisfaction with their finances than in 2009; financial satisfaction has continued to sag among those with incomes of less than $40,000.

Only about half of Americans (51%) agree with this statement: “I don’t believe that there are any real limits to growth in this country today”; 45% disagree. That is the lowest percentage ever agreeing with this statement, down slightly from 54% in 2009. In the first political values survey, 67% said there were no limits to growth in the United States.

Despite persistent economic pessimism, however, the public remains bullish about the ability of the American people to overcome challenges. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) agree that “As Americans, we can always find a way to solve our problems and get what we want.” While that is largely unchanged from 2009 (70%), it is up 11 points since 2007 (58%). It also is about the same percentage that agreed with this statement in the first values survey (68%).

Political Values and the 2012 Election

When the values items are combined into indices (grouping measures on common subjects, such as the social safety net, into a single scale), swing voters – who make up 23% of all registered voters – tend to fall about halfway between certain Obama voters and certain Romney voters. Swing voters are either undecided, only lean toward a candidate, or favor a candidate but say there is still a chance they will change their minds.  (For more, see “With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows,” April 17, 2012).

On views about the scope and performance of government, for example, there is a wide divide between certain Obama and Romney supporters. But the attitudes of swing voters are about equidistant from backers of either candidate. The same is true on several other key indices, including views of business, the environment and national security.

Nonetheless, there are some issues on which the views of swing voters tilt slightly toward the backers of either candidate. On attitudes toward labor and social conservatism, opinion among swing voters comes somewhat closer to that of Obama voters. By contrast, on indices measuring attitudes on the social safety net and immigration, swing voters’ opinions tilt toward those of Romney supporters.

While the views of swing voters generally fall between those of certain Obama and Romney backers, there are a handful of individual questions that show agreement between swing voters and the supporters of one candidate or the other.

For example, on the power of labor unions and admiration of wealthy people, the opinions of swing voters are closer to those of Obama supporters. About half of swing voters (51%) agree that labor unions have too much power, placing them closer to the views of Obama supporters (39% agree) than Romney supporters (82%).

Just 22% of swing voters, and an identical percentage of Obama supporters, say they “admire people who are rich.” A much higher percentage of Romney supporters (38%) agree.

But swing voters are far closer to Romney voters on the question of whether the government should help more needy people even if it means going further into debt: just 19% of Romney voters and 27% of swing voters agree, compared with a 62% majority of Obama voters.

Number of Independents Continues to Grow

While Republicans and Democrats have been moving further apart in their beliefs, both groups have also been shrinking. Pew Research Center polling conducted so far in 2012 has found fewer Americans affiliating with one of the major parties than at any point in the past 25 years. And looking at data from Gallup going back to 1939, it is safe to say that there are more political independents in 2012 than at any point in the last 75 years.

Currently, 38% of Americans identify as independents, while 32% affiliate with the Democratic Party and 24% affiliate with the GOP. That is little changed from recent years, but long-term trends show that both parties have lost support.

The percentage of Americans identifying as Democrats increased from 31% in 2002, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, to 36% in 2008. But over the past four years, Democratic affiliation has fallen to 32%. Republican identification stood at 30% in 2002, but fell to 25% in 2008 and has not recovered since then.

More Conservative Republicans, More Liberal Democrats

Over the past decade, the Republican Party has come to be dominated by conservatives, while liberals make up an increasing share of Democrats.

In surveys conducted this year, 68% of Republicans describe themselves as politically conservative. That is little changed from 2008, but is higher than in 2004 (63%) or 2000 (60%).

Demographically, Republicans remain overwhelmingly white and their average age now approaches 50. Fully 87% of Republicans are non-Hispanic whites, a figure which has changed little since 2000.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Democrats who say their political views are liberal has risen from 28% in 2000 to 34% in 2008 and 38% in 2012 surveys by the Pew Research Center. For the first time, there are as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.

In contrast to Republicans, Democrats have grown increasingly diverse. A narrow majority of Democrats (55%) are non-Hispanic whites, down from 64% in 2000. As in recent years, most Democrats are women (59%). And while the average age of self-described Democrats has risen since 2008 – from 46.9 to 47.7 – Democrats continue to be younger than Republicans on average (47.7 vs. 49.7).

Independents also have become more diverse since 2000: Two-thirds of independents (67%) are non-Hispanic whites, down 12 points from 2000. The proportion of independents who are Hispanic has nearly doubled – from 9% to 16% – over this period.

A plurality of independents (43%) describes their views as moderate, while 30% are conservative and 22% are liberal. These views are largely unchanged from previous election years.

In the last four national elections, generational differences have mattered more than they have in decades. According to the exit polls, younger people have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in each election since 2004, while older voters have cast more ballots for Republican candidates in each election since 2006.

The latest national polls suggest this pattern may well continue in 2012. Millennial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a matchup against Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate who has run the strongest against Obama in many polls. By contrast, Silent generation voters are solidly behind Romney.

In between the youngest and the oldest voters are the Baby Boom generation and Generation X. Both groups are less supportive of Obama than they were in 2008 and are now on the fence with respect to a second term for the president.

One of the largest factors driving the current generation gap is the arrival of diverse and Democratic-oriented Millennials. Shaped by the politics and conditions of the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush presidencies, this group holds liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues.

In contrast, the Silent generation – whose members reached adulthood between the late 1940s and early 1960s and now make up over 80% of Americans age 65 and older – has held relatively conservative views on social issues and the role of government for most of their lives. Their growing unease, and even anger, about the direction of the country in recent years has moved them further toward the GOP, largely erasing the Democratic Party’s advantage in affiliation.

While the political divides between young and old are deep, there are potential fissures at both ends of the age spectrum. Millennials continue to support Obama at much higher levels than older generations. But Obama’s job ratings have fallen steeply among this group, as well as among older generations, since early 2009. Perhaps more ominously for Obama, Millennials are much less engaged in politics than they were at this stage in the 2008 campaign.

In contrast, Silents – particularly those who affiliate with or lean to the Republican Party – are far more engaged in the presidential campaign than they were at this point in the contest four years ago. While Silents support Romney over Obama by a wide margin, they express highly unfavorable views of both the GOP and the Democratic Party.

Silents prefer the Republican Party on most issues, with Social Security a notable exception. Silents are about evenly divided over whether the Democrats or the Republicans can better handle Social Security. If debate over Social Security and Medicare comes to the forefront, it raises potentially significant cross pressures for Silent generation voters, who rank Social Security among the top issues affecting their 2012 vote.

Growing racial and ethnic diversity, which is concentrated among younger generations, has benefited Democrats. Race and ethnicity are strongly associated with views about government, and in no small part account for some of the greater liberalism of the younger age groups and greater conservatism of older groups.

The polling finds that older generations – Boomers and especially Silents – do not fully embrace diversity. Fewer in these groups see the increasing populations of Latinos and Asians, as well as more racial intermarriage, as changes for the better. For many Silents in particular, Obama himself may represent an unwelcome indicator of the way the face of America has changed. Feelings of “unease” with Obama, along with higher levels of anger, are the emotions that most differentiate the attitudes of Silents from those of the youngest generation.

The nation’s ongoing economic difficulties have affected all generations. But Boomers and Gen Xers are far more likely than either Silents or Millennials to have little or no confidence they will have enough money to finance their retirement. And two-thirds of Boomers ages 50 to 61 who are still working expect to delay retirement because of current economic conditions.

These are the principal findings from two major national surveys exploring generational differences in political attitudes conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press (Sept. 22-Oct. 4) and the Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends project (Sept. 1-15). Together, these surveys interviewed 4,413 adults. They have been supplemented with data from other polling over the course of the year and analyses of census data by Pew Social & Demographic Trends.

The study provides a detailed look at the current generational dynamics of American politics. Why are Silent generation voters so angry? How have the political leanings of Baby Boomers evolved? Is the Reagan-era Generation X moving closer to the Democratic column? Will Millennials be as engaged and enthused about Obama as they were in 2008? The answers lie in understanding the broad political, social and economic changes of the past decades and how they have shaped the political leanings of these generations over time.

A Closer Look at … Older Americans

The vast majority of Americans who are 65 and older are members of the Silent generation (ages 66 to 83). They came of age in the Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy years. Silents favored the Democrats at times during the 1990s, but in recent elections have strongly supported the Republicans. While they aligned more with the Democrats in the 1990s, they have become much more Republican in recent years. The Silent generation “replaced” the Greatest generation, who were more reliable Democratic voters when they constituted the bulk of the senior vote.

Silents increasingly call themselves conservative and they hold the most consistently conservative views about government, social issues and America’s place in the world. Unlike other generations that in recent years have become more supportive of smaller government, they have held conservative views about government for years.

Today, an overwhelming majority of Silents are either angry or frustrated with government. They are the generation that is most strongly disapproving of Barack Obama, for whom a majority did not vote. Silents also are the most politically energized generation, as they demonstrated in the 2010 midterms.

More often than the younger generations, Silents take the American exceptionalist view that the United States is the greatest nation in the world. But fewer older people than young people think that “America’s best days are ahead of us.”

The political discontent of the Silent generation is not economically based. A greater proportion of Silents than younger people say they are financially satisfied, and Silents are less likely to say they often do not have enough money to make ends meet.

Race is a factor in their political attitudes. Silents are the whitest of the generations and are the least accepting of the new face of America. Compared with younger generations, relatively few Silents see racial intermarriage and the growing population of immigrants as changes for the better.

As was the case in 2008, racial attitudes are associated with views of Obama and voting intentions. And while there is racial intolerance in all generations, it is more prevalent among older than younger age groups.

While Silent generation voters say they are solidly behind Obama’s Republican challengers, there are some signs of potential opportunity for the Democrats. Silents cite Social Security as often as they name jobs as their top voting issue. And while seniors tend to favor the Republican Party on most issues, they are as likely to favor the Democrats as Republicans on Social Security.

Young People

Millennials, who are 18 to 30, have voted more Democratic than older voters in the last four national elections. They came of age in the Clinton and Bush eras, and hold liberal attitudes on most social and governmental issues, as well as America’s approach to foreign policy.

Just as members of the Silent generation are long-term backers of smaller government, Millennials, at least so far, hold “baked in” support for a more activist government.

Millennials have come of age professing an allegiance to the Democratic Party and profoundly little identification with the GOP. Today, half of Millennials (50%) think of themselves as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents while just 36% affiliate with or lean toward the GOP.

Although they back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in matchups against both Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, just 49% approve of his job performance, down 24 points since February 2009.

Millennials are a racially and ethnically diverse generation. Only 59% of Millennials are white non-Hispanic. They are well acquainted with changing face of America and overwhelmingly think these changes are good for the country.

The racial gap also helps explain the greater liberalism of Millennials when compared with older generations. The racial factor, however, mutes rather than explains away the ideological and partisan gaps between Millennials and older voters. For example, while 57% of all Millennials favor a bigger government with more services, just 44% of white Millennials do. But only about a quarter of whites in older generations (27%) support an activist government.

Similarly, while 61% of all Millennials back Obama in a matchup against Romney, only 49% of white Millennials do. But this compares to 37% of older whites who back the president.

For more on Millennials, see Millennials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change, Feb. 24, 2010.

Middle-Aged Americans

Baby Boomers (ages 47 to 65) are the largest generation. They came of age under presidents Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan.
Boomers had very little allegiance to the GOP during the 1960s and 70s, but were increasingly drawn to the Republican Party starting in the 1980s. Since then, they have tilted to the Democratic Party.

Historically, there has been an age gap within the Baby Boom generation. Older Boomers, who cast their first ballots in the Nixon elections of 1968 and 1972, have voted more Democratic than have younger Boomers who came of age under Ford, Carter and Reagan. In 2008, for example, Obama performed better among older Boomers (currently 56 to 65) than younger Boomers (47 to 55).

Boomers supported Republican candidates in 2010. Currently, they are almost as disillusioned with Obama as are Silents, yet are divided in a matchup between Obama and Romney.

In recent years, more Boomers have come to call themselves conservatives. A majority of Boomers now favors a smaller government that provides fewer services. When they were in their 20s and 3os, Boomers were more supportive of big government. Today, almost as many Boomers as Silents say they are angry with government.

Boomers’ current attitudes bear little imprint from coming of age in an era of great social change. On most social issues, their opinions generally fall between the Silents and the younger age cohorts. And many Boomers express reservations about the changing face of America.

Like younger generations, many Boomers say they are dissatisfied with their financial situation and their anxieties about retirement have increased. In a survey conducted last year, a majority of Boomers (54%) said they were in worse shape financially than they were before the recession. Today, 38% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years.

Like other generations, Boomers oppose cutting entitlement benefits in order to reduce the budget deficit. They are also part of a multi-generational majority that supports reducing Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors with higher incomes. However, unlike Silents, Boomers oppose raising the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare.

Generation X, ages 31 to 46, is the in-between generation. They represent the dividing line on many issues between young and old, but they are not as Democratic and liberal as the younger Millennial generation.

Gen Xers mostly came of age politically in the Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton years. In the 1990s, they divided their loyalties between the parties. In 2000, they split their votes between George W. Bush and Al Gore; they narrowly supported Bush in 2004 and favored Obama by clear margin in 2008.

Gen Xers are less supportive of larger government than they once were. And along with other generations, their views of Obama have become more negative. Gen Xers supported GOP candidates by a small margin in 2010. Currently, as many Gen Xers favor Romney as Obama.

On a range of social issues Gen Xers take a more liberal position than do older voters. Gen Xers are more likely than both Boomers and Silents to favor gay marriage and marijuana legalization, and Gen Xers are far more comfortable with the social diversity of 21st century America.

As with Millennials and Boomers, jobs are the number one voting issue for Gen Xers. And they are increasingly anxious over their financial futures. Fully 46% say they are not confident that they will have enough income and assets to last through their retirement years – the highest percentage in any generation.

Entitlements: Agreement on Principles, Not Policies

The poll finds a fair amount generational agreement on entitlement issues. Majorities across generations say that the federal government does too little for older people. And there is broad agreement that it is more important to maintain current retirement benefits than to reduce the budget deficit, though that view is more widely shared among older than younger generations.

But wide generation gaps exist with respect to a number of proposed reforms to the retirement programs. Silents are lukewarm toward allowing younger workers to invest their Social Security taxes in private accounts and using their Medicare benefits to purchase private insurance. Millennials, in particular, enthusiastically embrace these proposed changes.

Moreover, Silents are more supportive than are younger generations of gradually raising the retirement age for receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits. Roughly half of Silents favor raising the retirement age for these programs; no more than four-in-ten in younger generations agree.

Generational Voting in Red and Blue

One way to look at the political leanings of generations is to sort people by the political environment when they became politically engaged. For example, not so long ago, voters 65 and older were predominantly members of the Greatest generation, most of whom came of age during FDR’s presidency and were fairly reliable supporters of Democrats even into their later years.

As recently as 2004, members of the Greatest generation supported John Kerry by a greater margin than did all voters in that election.

As the Greatest generation has mostly passed from the scene, members of the Silent generation – most of whom came of age politically during the Truman and Eisenhower presidencies – have come to make up an increasing share of voters 65 and older. They have long voted less Democratic than the Greatest generation; in both 2008 and 2010, both Truman- and Eisenhower-era Silents voted more Republican than average.

The Baby Boom is a long generation, spanning many presidencies. The oldest, who turned 18 when LBJ was president, have mostly voted with the national electorate in recent years, though they voted more Republican than average in 2008. Those Boomers who came of age when Nixon was president retained a Democratic leaning, although they have voted with the overall electorate since 2006. The youngest Boomers, who mostly came of age in the Ford and Carter years, have been one of the most reliable Republican voting groups.

Internal divisions within Generation X are even more notable. The older portion of Generation X who came of age during the Reagan and George H.W. Bush presidencies, have voted more Republican than the electorate. In contrast, younger Xers, who became active politically during the Clinton administration, have mostly voted more Democratic than average. Millennials largely came of age during George W. Bush’s presidency and have consistently voted more Democratic by large margins.

Best President in Your Lifetime?

When asked which president has done the best job in their lifetime, more respondents name Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan than any other presidents. Sizeable numbers in each of the four generational groups, including majorities of Millennials and Gen Xers, cite Clinton as either their first or second choice as the best president. Reagan matches Clinton in mentions among Baby Boomers and members of the Silent generation.

Despite the fact that many of them were quite young during Clinton’s years in office, nearly half (48%) of Millennials say Bill Clinton did the best job of any president in their lifetime. Another 12% cite him as second best. Fewer Millennials (37%) cite Obama as best or second-best. Relatively few (22%) say that George W. Bush was a favorite.

A majority of Xers also named Clinton as best (38%) or second-best (18%), while 43% cite Reagan (34% as best, 9% as second-best). Just 23% of Xers say that Obama is the best or second best president of their lifetimes; 18% cite George H. W. Bush and 14% cite George W. Bush.

Baby Boomers divide their loyalties about evenly between Clinton and Reagan, with 45% citing Reagan in either first (33%) or second (12%) place. About as many name Clinton as the best president (27%) or second-best (15%). About a quarter of Boomers (26%) cite John F. Kennedy.

Only among the Silent generation do presidents in office before Kennedy receive a significant number of mentions. But even among this older group, Clinton and Reagan are essentially tied for the top positions. Reagan is cited by 36% and Clinton by 35% as best or second-best. Kennedy is mentioned by 29%, Dwight D. Eisenhower by 17%, and Harry S Truman and Franklin D. Roosevelt are named by 11% and 12%, respectively.

Overview

The public offers a mixed reaction to a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage: 41% oppose such a change, 36% favor it, and nearly a quarter (23%) have no opinion either way. Despite this even division of opinion overall, there is broad, and strong, opposition to the proposal among older Americans, and those who are paying a lot of attention to the issue.

Those ages 50 and older oppose this proposal, which is part of Rep. Paul Ryan’s deficit reduction plan, by a 51% to 29% margin. And this opposition is intense: 42% strongly oppose this kind of change, while only 19% strongly favor it. The same is true among people who say they have heard a lot about this proposal – fully 56% are opposed while 33% are in favor, and strong opposition among this group outweighs strong support by two-to-one (50% vs. 25%).

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted May 25-30 among 1,509 adults, finds only modest partisan differences in views of the Medicare proposal. Democrats are slightly more likely to oppose this kind of change than are Republicans (46% vs. 39%), while an identical 35% in both parties are in favor. The ambivalence toward this proposal among Republicans holds across ideological lines. Even among conservative Republicans as many oppose (38%) as favor (34%) this proposal. And among people who say they agree with the Tea Party just 44% support this change, while 36% are opposed.

When it comes to dealing with Medicare, the Democrats have a 44% to 34% edge over the Republicans as the party who can do the best job. Even though this proposed change receives mixed reactions within each party base, most remain loyal to their party on the issue generally. For example, while just 35% of Republicans favor this particular proposal, 70% believe the GOP can do the better job of dealing with Medicare overall. A comparable 75% of Democrats say their party is best suited to handle Medicare, far higher than the 46% who oppose this particular issue. Independents are divided in their assessment, with 40% preferring the Democratic Party, and 33% the Republican Party, on the issue of Medicare.

Attention to the debate over Medicare is limited so far. Just one-in-five Americans (20%) say they have heard a lot about a proposal to change Medicare into a program that would give future participants a credit toward purchasing private health insurance coverage; half (50%) have heard a little about it, and 28% have heard nothing at all. Awareness is particularly low among younger Americans – fully 41% of adults under 30, and 34% of those ages 30-49, have heard nothing at all about this proposal. And politically, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they have heard a lot about this proposal (26% vs. 16%).

The lack of awareness goes a long way toward explaining some of the contradictory views many Americans hold on this issue. In particular, people under age 30 are the only major demographic group in which significantly more say they favor (46%) than oppose (28%) this proposed change. Yet this same cohort is far more likely to say the Democratic Party (49%) not the Republican Party (34%) can do a better job on this issue.

While there is little partisan difference overall in reactions to this proposed Medicare change, there is a distinct partisan divide among the very attentive. Democrats who have heard a lot about the proposal are far more likely to oppose it (69% vs. 38% of Democrats who have heard little or nothing). Similarly, independents who have heard a lot about this proposal are significantly more likely to oppose it than those who have not (51% vs. 37%). However, Republicans who have heard a lot about the proposal, if anything, are more likely to support it.

Read full analysis at Pewresearch.org

Increased public support for the social safety net, signs of growing public concern about income inequality, and a diminished appetite for assertive national security policies have improved the political landscape for the Democrats as the 2008 presidential campaign gets underway.

At the same time, many of the key trends that nurtured the Republican resurgence in the mid-1990s have moderated, according to Pew’s longitudinal measures of the public’s basic political, social and economic values. The proportion of Americans who support traditional social values has edged downward since 1994, while the proportion of Americans expressing strong personal religious commitment also has declined modestly.

Even more striking than the changes in some core political and social values is the dramatic shift in party identification that has occurred during the past five years. In 2002, the country was equally divided along partisan lines: 43% identified with the Republican Party or leaned to the GOP, while an identical proportion said they were Democrats. Today, half of the public (50%) either identifies as a Democrat or says they lean to the Democratic Party, compared with 35% who align with the GOP.

Yet the Democrats’ growing advantage in party identification is tempered by the fact that the Democratic Party’s overall standing with the public is no better than it was when President Bush was first inaugurated in 2001. Instead, it is the Republican Party that has rapidly lost public support, particularly among political independents. Faced with an unpopular president who is waging an increasingly unpopular war, the proportion of Americans who hold a favorable view of the Republican Party stands at 41%, down 15 points since January 2001. But during that same period, the proportion expressing a positive view of Democrats has declined by six points, to 54%.

The study of the public’s political values and attitudes by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press — the most recent in a series of such reports dating back to 1987 — finds a pattern of rising support since the mid-1990s for government action to help disadvantaged Americans. More Americans believe that the government has a responsibility to take care of people who cannot take care of themselves, and that it should help more needy people even if it means going deeper into debt.

These attitudes have undergone a major change since 1994, when the Republicans won control of Congress. In particular, 54% say the government should help more needy people, even if it adds to the nation’s debt, up from just 41% in 1994. All party groups are now more supportive of government aid to the poor, though Republicans remain much less supportive than Democrats or independents if it means adding to the deficit.

Despite these favorable shifts in support for more government help for the poor, 69% agree that “poor people have become too dependent on government assistance programs.” Still, the number in agreement has been declining over the past decade.

More broadly, the poll finds that money worries are rising. More than four-in-ten (44%) say they “don’t have enough money to make ends meet,” up from 35% in 2002. While a majority continues to say they are “pretty well satisfied” with their personal financial situation, that number is lower than it has been in more than a decade.

In addition, an increasing number of Americans subscribe to the sentiment “today it’s really true that the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer.” Currently, 73% concur with that sentiment, up from 65% five years ago. Growing concerns about income inequality are most apparent among affluent Americans; large percentages of lower-income people have long held this opinion.

The new survey also shows that the deep partisan fissure in values and core attitudes revealed in Pew’s previous survey in 2003 has narrowed slightly. But Republicans and Democrats remain far apart in their fundamental attitudes toward government, national security, social values, and even in evaluations of personal finances. Three-in-four (74%) Republicans with annual incomes of less than $50,000 say they are “pretty well satisfied” with their financial conditions compared with 40% of Democrats and 39% of independents with similar incomes.

Even as Americans express greater commitment to solving domestic problems, they voice more hesitancy about global engagement. They also are less disposed than five years ago to favor a strong military as the best way to ensure peace.

In 2002, less than a year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, more than six-in-ten agreed with the statement, “The best way to ensure peace is through military strength.” Today, about half express similar confidence in military power.

The latest values survey, conducted Dec. 12, 2006-Jan. 9, 2007, finds a reversal of increased religiosity observed in the mid-1990s. While most Americans remain religious in both belief and practice, the percentage expressing strong religious beliefs has edged down since the 1990s. And the survey finds an increase in the relatively small percentage of the public that can be categorized as secular.

In Pew surveys since the beginning of 2006, 12% identified themselves as unaffiliated with a religious tradition. That compares with 8% in the Pew values survey in 1987. This change appears to be generational in nature, with each new generation displaying lower levels of religious commitment than the preceding one.

In addition, political differences in levels of religious commitment are larger now than in years past. Republicans are at least as religious as they were 10 or 20 years ago, based on the numbers expressing belief in God, citing prayer as important, and other measures. By contrast, Democrats express lower levels of commitment than in the late 1980s and 1990s.

At the same time, the survey records further declines in traditional social attitudes. The poll finds greater public acceptance of homosexuality and less desire for women to play traditional roles in society. Both represent a continuation of trends that have been apparent over the past 20 years, and have occurred mostly among older people. The younger generations have changed the least, as they have consistently expressed more accepting points of view over the past 20 years.

Divides on some once-contentious issues also appear to be closing. In 1995, 58% said they favored affirmative action programs designed to help blacks, women, and other minorities get better jobs. That percentage has risen steadily since, and stands at 70% in the current poll. Gains in support for affirmative action have occurred to almost the same extent among Republicans (+8), Democrats (+10), and Independents (+14).

Changes nationally in the beliefs of Americans on social, political and religious values tell a revealing but incomplete story. The proportion of voters who hold certain politically relevant core beliefs varies widely from state to state, further complicating an already complicated 2008 election campaign. For example, politically conservative, white evangelical Christians make up 10% of all Republicans and Republican leaners in New Hampshire — currently the first state to hold its presidential primaries in 2008 — but 39% of all GOP partisans in South Carolina where primary voters go to the polls several days later. On the Democratic s
ide, the proportion of Democrats who say they are politically liberal ranges from 38% in California to 25% in South Carolina. (See pages 10-11 for a fuller ideological profiling of key primary states)

Among other key findings from the wide-ranging survey:

• The public expresses highly favorable views of many leading corporations. Johnson & Johnson and Google have the most positive images of 23 corporations tested. At the bottom of the list: Halliburton, which is viewed favorably by fewer than half of those familiar enough with the company to give it a rating.
• Views of many corporations vary significantly among Democrats along class lines. Two-thirds of working-class Democrats have a favorable view of Wal-Mart compared with 45% of professional-class Democrats.
• Americans are worried more that businesses rather than government are snooping into their lives. About three-in-four (74%) say they are concerned that business corporations are collecting too much personal information while 58% express the same concern about the government.
• The public is losing confidence in itself. A dwindling majority (57%) say they have a good deal of confidence in the wisdom of the American people when it comes to making political decisions. Similarly, the proportion who agrees that Americans “can always find a way to solve our problems” has dropped 16 points in the past five years.
• Americans feel increasingly estranged from their government. Barely a third (34%) agree with the statement, “most elected officials care what people like me think,” nearly matching the 20-year low of 33% recorded in 1994 and a 10-point drop since 2002.
• Young people continue to hold a more favorable view of government than do other Americans. At the same time, young adults express the least interest in voting and other forms of political participation.
• Interpersonal racial attitudes continue to moderate. More than eight-in-ten (83%) agree that “it’s all right for blacks and whites to date,” up six percentage points since 2003 and 13 points from a Pew survey conducted 10 years ago.
• Republicans are increasingly divided over the cultural impact of immigrants. Nearly seven-in-ten (68%) conservative Republicans say immigrants threaten American customs, compared with 43% of GOP moderates and liberals. Democrats have long been divided along ideological lines, but the GOP previously had not been.

Roadmap to the Report

Section 1, which begins on p. 7, describes the striking shift in party identification over the past five years, the public’s views of both parties, and the ideological profile of the early presidential primary states. Section 2, which details the public’s views of the government safety net, success and empowerment, and personal finances, begins on p. 12. Section 3 (p. 19) covers public attitudes toward foreign policy and national security. Section 4 (p. 30) covers opinions about religion and social issues. Section 5 (p. 39) describes changing attitudes toward race and race relations. Section 6 (p. 45) discusses the public’s complex views about government and political participation. Opinions about business, and ratings for individual corporations, are covered in Section 7, which begins on p. 52. Section 8 covers public views about civil liberties, the environment, and science.

Public acceptance of homosexuality has increased in a number of ways in recent years, though it remains a deeply divisive issue. Half of Americans (51%) continue to oppose legalizing gay marriage, but this number has declined significantly from 63% in February 2004, when opposition spiked following the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision and remained high throughout the 2004 election season. Opposition to gay marriage has fallen across the board, with substantial declines even among Republicans.

These are among the results of the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 1,405 adults from March 8-12. The poll also finds less opposition to gays serving openly in the military and a greater public willingness to allow gays to adopt children. A 60% majority now favors allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military, up from 52% in 1994, and 46% support gay adoption, up from 38% in 1999.

Despite the fact that gay marriage initiatives are on the ballot in seven states this year, the atmosphere surrounding the issue of gay marriage has cooled off, and public intensity has dissipated compared with two years ago. “Strong” opposition to gay marriage, which surged in 2004, has ebbed to a new low. This is particularly the case among seniors, Catholics and non-evangelical Protestants. Among people age 65 and over, for example, strong opposition to gay marriage jumped from 36% in 2003 to 58% in 2004, but has fallen to 33% today. White evangelical Protestants are the only major group in which a majority still strongly opposes gay marriage, but even here the intensity of feeling has receded somewhat.

On another social issue, the survey also finds that by a 58%-to-34% margin most Americans would oppose a national version of South Dakota’s new law banning abortion in all cases unless the mother’s life is endangered. However, supporters of such a law place a much higher priority on the issue, and are more politically active than opponents. The South Dakota law has not yet become a galvanizing issue for supporters of abortion rights. Even those who express strong opposition to abortion restrictions don’t see abortion as a critical issue facing the country, while those who strongly support abortion restrictions do. As a result, proponents of a national law modeled after South Dakota’s are twice as likely to have donated money, written letters, or participated in activities related to the cause over the past year as are those who would oppose such a change.

The gap in intensity of feelings about the abortion issue is greatest among younger Americans. Young people who take a generally pro-life position are the most likely to say it is a critical issue for the country, and are twice as likely as young people who favor abortion access to have taken action over the past year to advocate their position.

The survey also finds the public continuing to express mixed views of Medicare’s new prescription drug program. On the positive side, most (54%) who have enrolled or looked into the program say the process is easy, not difficult. But just 39% of those already enrolled or currently enrolling believe the program will end up saving them money; 18% think it will cost them more and for the rest it appears to be a wash. More generally, while a slim majority of Americans approves of the program, and more say it will be good for seniors than say it will be bad, it is the seniors themselves, as well as those age 50-64, who are the most likely to disapprove. In addition, as many as one-in-three who are eligible for the Medicare prescription drug program say they do not intend to enroll.

Even as health care rides high as a top national issue, the public’s personal health care concerns are not substantially greater today than in the early 1990s. Personal anxiety is highest about the possible costs of a major illness or long-term care toward the end of life, as well as the loss of insurance or benefits from job changes or employer cutbacks. Routine medical costs, including prescriptions, are less of a concern, though 44% say the cost of prescription drugs is a major problem for their family. Drug costs are of no greater concern among seniors than among younger Americans.

On the issue of the government’s policy of holding suspected terrorists at Guantanamo Bay without formal charges or trial, the public is divided (44% favor, 43% oppose). There is a substantial partisan divide, with most Republicans (63%) supporting the policy, and most Democrats (57%) opposed.

Opposition to Gay Marriage Declines

After peaking during the 2004 election, opposition to allowing gays and lesbians to marry has faded in recent years. Currently, 51% oppose legalizing gay marriage, down from a recent high of 63% just two years ago in February of 2004. The percent who favor allowing gay marriage has increased from a low of 29% in August of that year to 39% today.

These figures are in keeping with the long-term trend toward acceptance of gay marriage seen in surveys leading up to the 2004 race. In June of 1996 just 27% favored legalizing gay marriage, a figure which rose to 35% in March of 2001 and 38% in the summer of 2003. This growing support fell away during the debates surrounding gay marriage that were sparked largely by the Massachusetts Supreme Court decision in February 2004, a resurgence in opposition that lasted throughout the rest of the election year.

The turnaround over the past two years is particularly distinct in the change among those who say they “strongly oppose” legalizing gay marriage. Just 28% take this position today, down from 42% in February of 2004, and the decline has been sharpest among seniors, Republicans and more moderate religious groups. Fully 58% of Americans age 65 and older strongly opposed gay marriage in 2004; only 33% are strongly opposed now. Two years ago 59% of Republicans strongly opposed gay marriage, while just 41% take this position today. And both white Catholics and non-evangelical Protestants are half as likely to strongly oppose gay marriage today as they were in 2004. Opposition remains strongest among white evangelical Protestants, 56% of whom strongly oppose legalizing gay marriage, down from 65% two years ago.

In all of these cases, current attitudes are in line with both the balance of opinion and intensity of opinion in the summer of 2003, before the issue gained widespread public attention. While the issue of gay marriage is not currently high on the public’s agenda, there are seven states which have gay marriage amendments on the ballot this fall.

Public Divided over Gay Adoption

The balance of public opinion on the issue of gay adoption has shifted significantly over the past seven years. In 1999, most Americans (57%) opposed allowing gays and lesbians to adopt children, while just 38% were in favor. Today, the public is divided about evenly ­ the percent who favor allowing gay adoption has grown to 46% while 48% are opposed.

The partisan gap over this issue, however, has grown substantially during this time period, as Democrats and independents have become more supportive of allowing gay adoptions while Republicans remain mostly opposed. Currently, 55% of Democrats favor letting gays and lesbians adopt children, as do 52% of independents, while just 30% of Republicans take this view.

There is a dramatic difference of opinion over gay adoption within both party coa
litions as well. By nearly four-to-one (77% to 20%) most conservative Republicans oppose allowing gay adoption, while moderate and liberal Republicans are divided almost evenly (48% oppose, 43% favor). Similarly, there is a general consensus among liberal Democrats that gay adoption should be allowed (76% vs. 19% who are opposed) while conservative and moderate Democrats are split evenly (46% favor, 49% oppose).

White evangelical Protestants remain strongly opposed to allowing gay marriage: 75% say this is unacceptable while 22% approve, virtually unchanged from 1999. Meanwhile, the balance of opinion among Catholics has shifted notably ­ currently 55% favor allowing gays and lesbians to adopt while 37% are opposed. Seven years ago, 50% of Catholics opposed this idea, while 45% were in favor.

When age is taken into account, younger people remain the most open to the idea of gay adoption ­ most people under age 30 favor allowing gay adoption (by a margin of 58% to 38%) while most people 65 and older are opposed (by a 62% to 32% margin). Those between 30 and 64 are divided almost evenly.

Two-to-One Support for Allowing Gays in the Military

The public supports a policy of allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military by a margin of 60% to 32%. This represents significantly broader support for this inclusive policy than in 1994, when 52% favored allowing gays to serve openly and 45% were opposed.

Support has grown in most segments of society, particularly among young people ­ those under age 30 favor an open policy by three-to-one (72% to 23%). But the balance of opinion has shifted in favor of allowing open service across all age groups.

Regionally, the South has seen the biggest change in opinion on this issue. In 1994 the South was the only region in which a majority of residents (55%) opposed allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly. Today, just 35% in the South take this position, while 58% support open service.

Republicans are divided on the issue ­ 46% favor allowing gays to serve openly and 46% are opposed. A majority of conservative Republicans oppose such a policy, while moderate and liberal Republicans favor it by a wide margin (62%-29%). Democrats of all ideological groups tend to favor allowing gays in the military, though liberal Democrats are nearly universal in their support (85%-9%). Independents also favor the policy by a 66%-to-30% margin.

South Dakota’s Abortion Ban

News about South Dakota’s new law banning all abortions unless the mother’s life is in danger drew the very close attention of just one-in-five Americans (21%) ­ fully a quarter (26%) say they didn’t follow it closely at all.

In terms of public attention, the story ranked far below news from Iraq (43% followed very closely), the ports deal (41%), post-Katrina rebuilding (36%) and Vice President Cheney’s hunting accident (31%). Both pro-life and pro-choice Americans were equally uninterested in the story, though on both sides of the issue those who feel strongly about abortion paid closer attention.

By a 58% to 34% margin, most Americans oppose the idea of extending South Dakota’s near total ban on abortion nationwide. Public reactions to the law follow a pattern similar to that on other questions about abortion: No gender gap emerges, and only a slight difference of opinion is seen across age groups, with seniors more supportive of further restrictions on abortion than those under age 65. College graduates, as well as residents of the Northeast and West express more opposition to such a restriction on access to abortions than do either those without a college degree or people residing in the Midwest and South. However, across all of these groups, majorities say they would oppose extending this law beyond South Dakota.

Republicans Divided over Abortion Ban

Ideology and religion are the factors most closely associated with views on this issue. Just over half of Republicans (51%) favor expanding a law like South Dakota’s to the nation, but this masks a severe division of opinion within the party ­ conservative Republicans favor this idea by two- to-one (65% to 31%) while moderate and liberal Republicans oppose it by about the same margin (61% to 30%). There is also a divide among Democrats, but not nearly as sizeable ­ 34% of conservative and moderate Democrats favor this kind of abortion ban at the national level compared with just 12% of liberal Democrats, with majorities in both groups opposing the idea.

White evangelical Protestants are the only major religious group to favor a broad abortion ban like South Dakota’s ­ 59% favor this becoming a national law while 36% are opposed. The balance of opinion among other Protestants, Catholics and seculars is against this type of proposal.

Abortion Issue More Important to Opponents

Americans differ not only over how the issue of abortion should be legislated, but how important an issue it is for the country. Just over a quarter (28%) of Americans consider abortion to be a critical issue facing the country, and another 38% say it is one among many important issues. Nearly a third, however, (32%) say abortion is not that important compared to other issues.

On both sides, those with strong views are more likely to say abortion is a critical issue, but there is a sizable intensity gap with those taking a pro-life position rating the issue as far more important. For example, one in three (34%) supporters of extending the South Dakota ban to the rest of the nation say abortion is a critical issue for the country, compared with 25% of those who would oppose extending the ban.

The intensity gap is even starker when strong supporters and opponents of restricting abortion are compared. When asked whether they favor or oppose making it more difficult for a woman to get an abortion, 15% of Americans strongly favor making it more difficult while 24% strongly oppose such a move. While fewer in number, these strong abortion opponents rate the issue as far more important. Nearly half (48%) of those who strongly favor making it more difficult to get an abortion say it is a critical issue for the country. This compares to just 29% of people who strongly oppose making abortion more difficult. Just as starkly, 31% of strong supporters of a woman’s right to choose say the issue is “not that important compared to other issues.” Only 13% of strong abortion opponents say the same.

Intensity Gap among Young, Women

Younger people are among those most likely to consider abortion a critical issue. Fully 35% of those under 30 say it is critical, compared with 26% of people age 30 and over. This disparity is strongest on the pro-life side of the debate ­ 45% of young abortion opponents rate it as a critical issue, far more than among older abortion foes. As a result, the intensity gap between supporters and opponents of abortion rights is most extreme among younger people. Young people who take a generally pro-life position are 14-points more likely to rate it as a critical issue than young people who do not want to see abortion restricted further (45% vs. 31%). This same difference in the importance given to the abortion issue can be seen among older Americans groups as well, though the gap is less extreme.

Women who favor further restrictions on abortion also stand out for the emphasis they place on the issue. Fully 38% of women who want more limits on abortion access say it is a critical issue for the country, compared
with just 25% of women who oppose greater restrictions.

Abortion Opponents Also More Vocal

More than one-in-ten (13%) Americans say they have expressed their views on abortion in the past year through activities such as donating money to groups, participating in marches or rallies, or writing letters to the news media or their representatives. Those seeking to restrict abortions are the most likely to be performing these activities, reflecting the critical importance they place on the issue.

Those who support the South Dakota ban becoming a national law are twice as likely to have actively expressed their views than are those who oppose it. Similarly, over a quarter (27%) of those who strongly favor abortion restrictions say they engage in this level of activism. This compares to just 16% of Americans who strongly oppose making abortion access more difficult.

Pro-Life Women Most Active

Women seeking more restrictions on abortion stand out as one of the groups most engaged in the debate. More than one-in-five (21%) pro-life women report actively expressing their views on abortion through donations, activities or letter writing in the past year. Only 13% of women who oppose abortion restrictions have taken similar steps. On both sides of the issue, men are less likely to have done anything to express their views.

The pro-choice movement has done a better job of activating older supporters than it has among the young. Just 8% of young people who oppose broader abortion restrictions have taken action to express their opinion, compared with 17% of those age 65 and over who share their views. This results in a sizeable activism gap among younger generations. In both the 18-29 and 30-49 age ranges, abortion rights opponents are twice as likely as their more pro-choice counterparts to have taken part in group activities, made donations, or written letters.

Medicare Rx: Good, but Some Concerns

Public views on Medicare’s new prescription drug program remain largely unchanged from December, when the enrollment process was just getting underway. Currently, 51% approve of the new Medicare coverage of prescription drugs for seniors, while 32% disapprove. The program continues to receive far more backing from younger people than their elders. People under age 30 support the program by nearly three-to-one (64% approve, 22% disapprove), while among people age 50 and older about as many disapprove as approve.

People who are eligible for the program hold roughly the same views as those who are not. Just over half (53%) of those who have either enrolled or started looking into their options approve of the program, while 37% disapprove.

While more approve than disapprove of the new Medicare drug program, people volunteer criticism more frequently than praise when asked to describe their first impression of the program in their own words. The two specific problems cited most frequently are that the new program is complicated (mentioned by 18% of Americans) and that it will be costly for both seniors and the government (7%). Other negative comments are more general, such as that it’s “a mess,” it is “chaos” or that “it stinks.” Overall, by more than two-to-one (48% vs. 18%) people are more likely to cite negative than positive aspects of the program when offering their top-of-the-mind impressions.

Seniors (ages 65 and older), regardless of their enrollment status, hold similar impressions of the prescription drug program as does the general public. In particular, they are no more likely to criticize it for being confusing or costly. While there are more negative assessments from seniors, they tend to be general statements such as that the system is “a mess.”

The public’s sense of who is helped and hurt by the new program has not shifted significantly from December. On balance, more say the program will be good for seniors (50%) than bad for seniors (33%). However, it is drug companies that are seen as the clear winners. There is somewhat more pessimism about the costliness of the program today ­ 48% believe it will end up being bad for the federal budget deficit, up from 42% in December.

Experiences with Medicare Enrollment

Most seniors (87%) say they are eligible for the new Medicare prescription drug program. Among all eligible, about half (52%) say they have taken steps to enroll in the program. Another 13% haven’t looked into it yet and a third say they don’t plan to enroll at all. People’s experiences with the enrollment process vary greatly. In particular, those who have already finished enrolling tend to be satisfied with both the process itself and the likelihood that it will help them. By comparison, people who have looked into it but haven’t formally enrolled yet appear to be more skeptical that they will end up doing well under the new plan, though the number of respondents in this category is quite small (N=66).

So Far, Most Say Process is Easy

By a 54% to 38% margin, more people who have enrolled or looked into enrolling say the process is easy, not difficult. But there is a big difference of opinion between these two groups. Those who have already finished found the process to be easy by two-to-one (64% to 32%) while those still investigating their options tend to say the process is difficult (50%) or not easy (35%). This gap is not necessarily surprising ­ if the process was difficult it would take a person longer to finish, while those for whom it was easy are already done.

Among those who are not eligible for the program, one in five have helped a close friend or family member in the enrollment process. These helpers tend to find the process to be more difficult. This could be for a variety of reasons, such as that the seniors who are facing the most difficult enrollment choices may be the most likely to have asked for help.

A third of people enrolling in Medicare’s prescription drug program (35%) say they have gotten help during the enrollment process ­ 27% specifically said they got help from friends or family, while another 8% volunteered that the help came from other sources.

Choosing Coverage Options

When asked how many coverage options they had to choose from, one-in-five who are enrolled or enrolling couldn’t say, and another 14% said they only had one option to choose from. Among those who could recall their choices, the median number of plan options enrollees report having available to them is three, meaning half say they had three or fewer choices, while the other half had three or more.

Affordability was far and away the most frequently mentioned concern for people in choosing a drug plan under Medicare. Asked to describe, in their own words, the main thing they were looking for in a plan, 63% of enrollees, whether already enrolled or still in the process, cited costs, including concerns about co-pays, deductibles and premiums. One-in-four enrollees specifically mentioned looking at the coverage provided by the plans, what drugs are covered and finding a plan that fits their own medical needs.

People who helped someone else to enroll also report costs as the biggest factor affecting their friend’s or family member’s choice, though drug coverage is mentioned somewhat more often by this group. Relatively few in either group
say they prioritized such factors as convenience, simplicity, the company’s reputation or service in terms of personal help or assistance when choosing a drug plan.

About a quarter (24%) of people enrolling in the prescription drug program say that either they or someone helping them has used the Medicare website to help them learn about their options. This includes 40% of enrollees who themselves are internet users, and 17% of those who do not use the internet and may in this case have gotten help from friends or family.

People who are helping someone else to enroll are more likely to have turned to Medicare’s website (37% report using it). As these helpers are younger, their internet use is significantly higher in general.

Solving the Enrollment Puzzle

Overall, 43% of Americans who are enrolled or enrolling say they are very confident they have picked or will be able to choose the prescription drug plan that best fits their needs. Those who have already finished the process of enrolling are the most confident ­ 57% say they are very confident and another 22% somewhat confident. Those still learning about their options are less optimistic that they will solve the puzzle ­ just 18% feel very confident they will be able to locate the plan that best fits their needs, 43% are somewhat confident, and more than a third are either not too confident (19%) or not at all confident (17%).

Those who have already finished are also the most optimistic about the program’s effect on their own prescription drug costs. Nearly half (48%) say the new program will save them money over what they paid before, while 18% believe it will cost them more. Those still investigating their options take a more mixed view ­ only 21% think they will end up ahead, while 18% feel it will end up costing them more. How many prescriptions a person currently has is unrelated to expectations about cost savings ­ those who report having five or more regular prescriptions themselves are no more or less likely to foresee savings from the program than do those with fewer prescriptions.

Costs, Not Availability, Are Biggest Medical Problem

Just over half of Americans report that the possibility of paying for the costs of long-term care in a nursing home is a major problem for them and their family, and just as many see paying for the costs of a major illness as a major problem. These top the list of personal medical problems Americans point to as having a major impact on their lives. About half also cite the possibility of losing insurance if they lose or change jobs as a major problem, and the same number worry a lot that their employer might cut back on health care benefits or make them pay a larger share of the costs.

Some concerns are less widespread than they were in the early 1990s both before and during the period in which Bill Clinton’s health care reform proposal was being debated. Long- term costs of nursing home or elderly care were a much greater concern in the 1990s than they are today, and in 1993 more Americans said the costs of a major illness was a major problem for them.

Other concerns have shifted in a less uniform way. Currently, 51% say the possibility of employer benefit cuts is a major problem for them and their family. This is up from 42% in the summer of 1994, and about even with the 53% who saw this as a major problem in April of 1993.

Access to health care is less widely viewed as a major problem. About one-in-four (26%) rate the quality of hospital care in their community as a major problem in their lives ­ this too is up from 15% in 1994 but about even with the 23% who rated this as a major problem in 1993. The availability of medical care is a major problem for 25% of Americans.

Public Divided over Guantanamo Policy

Americans are divided evenly over whether they favor (44%) or oppose (43%) the government’s policy of holding suspected terrorists at Guantanamo Bay without formal charges or trial. Not surprisingly, there is a sizeable party divide on this issue, with 63% of Republicans supporting the policy and 57% of Democrats opposed. Unlike many issues related to Iraq and foreign policy where independents align more closely with Democrats, on this question independents are divided evenly, with 44% in favor and 45% opposed.

Aside from politics, the most substantial differences of opinion over Guantanamo Bay fall along racial and gender lines. Blacks oppose the Guantanamo policy by two-to-one (61%-30%) while whites lean in favor by a 47%-to-41% margin. Men also favor the policy by a 52%-to-40% margin, while women are more likely to oppose it (46%) than to be in favor (37%). Women are also twice as likely as men not to have made up their minds either way.

There are no substantial differences of opinion across generations, education levels, or religious backgrounds, other than that non-religious seculars are the least supportive among major religious groups (aside from black Protestants). There is somewhat more opposition to the Guantanamo policy in the Northeast, reflecting the presence of more Democrats in that region.