Oct. 26, 2006

Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts

Summary of Findings With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, the Democrats not only continue to maintain a double-digit advantage nationally, but also lead by the same margin in the competitive districts that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives. Nationally, the Democrats hold a 49%-38% lead among registered […]

Oct. 18, 2006

Evangelicals and the GOP: An Update

White evangelical Protestants have become one of the most important parts of the Republican Party’s electoral base, making up over one-third of those who identify with the GOP and vote for its candidates. The party’s political fortunes depend, in large part, on retaining the solid support of the evangelical community. But evangelicals, like other voters, […]

Oct. 5, 2006

Iraq Looms Large in Nationalized Election

Summary of Findings Iraq has become the central issue of the midterm elections. There is more dismay about how the U.S. military effort in Iraq is going than at any point since the war began more than three years ago. And the war is the dominant concern among the majority of voters who say they […]

Sep. 14, 2006

Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

Summary of Findings As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 […]

Jun. 27, 2006

Democrats More Eager to Vote, But Unhappy with Party

Summary of Findings With less than five months to go before Election Day, Democrats hold two distinct advantages in the midterm campaign that they have not enjoyed for some time. First, Americans continue to say they favor the Democratic candidate in their district, by a 51% to 39% margin. Second, the level of enthusiasm about […]

May. 2, 2006

Will White Evangelicals Desert the GOP?

President Bush’s job approval rating has fallen, and his personal favorability is down significantly as well, leading many Republicans to worry about the impact a weakened president will have on his party’s showing in the fall mid-term elections. Even among one of the president’s most supportive constituencies, white evangelical Protestants, Mr. Bush has suffered declines. […]

Apr. 20, 2006

Public Disillusionment with Congress at Record Levels

Summary of Findings The American public is angry with Congress, and this is bad news for the Republican Party. The belief that this Congress has accomplished less than its predecessors is markedly higher than at any point in the past nine years, and by a wide margin Republican leaders are blamed for this. Many more […]

Feb. 13, 2006

Midterm Match-Up: Partisan Tide vs. Safe Seats

At the start of this midterm election year, two heavyweight political trends are poised for a head-on collision. One is fueled by the low standing in the polls that the president and his party currently register, a position that invariably spells trouble for the “in party” in congressional elections. The other is driven by the […]

Feb. 9, 2006

Bush a Drag on Republican Midterm Prospects

Summary of Findings Nine months before the midterm elections, the Democrats hold a sizable lead in the congressional horse race and an advantage on most major issues. Democrats lead by 50%-41% among registered voters in the test ballot, which is little changed from last September (52%-40%). While retaining a huge advantage on traditional party strengths […]

Sep. 6, 2005

Political Division Multipliers

President Bush’s margin last year over Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, 2.4 percentage points, was the smallest of any victorious presidential incumbent in history. He won a very close election. But in most of the country, the 2004 race wasn’t even close to being close. A Pew Research Center analysis shows that in the majority […]

Apr. 6, 2005

The Dean Activists: Their Profile and Prospects

Introduction Although former Vermont governor Howard Dean failed to win the Democratic presidential nomination, his campaign left a strong imprint on the political world. It assembled a network of over a half-million active supporters and contributors, raised over $20 million in mostly small donations online, and demonstrated the power of the internet as a networking […]

Dec. 20, 2004

Public Opinion Little Changed by Presidential Election

Summary of Findings Six weeks after President Bush’s victory, the divisions that were so apparent in the election show no signs of narrowing. The public remains split over the president’s job performance, the situation in Iraq, and the state of the national economy. But Bush voters are upbeat on all three questions ­ 92% approve […]

Dec. 6, 2004

Religion and the Presidential Vote

Bush’s Gains Broad-Based

Nov. 23, 2004

Pre-Election Polls Largely Accurate

Lessons From Campaign ’04

Nov. 11, 2004

Voters Liked Campaign 2004, But Too Much ’Mud-Slinging’

Summary of Findings Campaign 2004 receives generally favorable marks from the voters. An overwhelming 86% say they learned enough about the candidates to make an informed choice, while two-thirds express satisfaction with the choice of candidates. However, voters also believe this campaign was more negative than previous contests ­ 72% say there was more mud-slinging […]

Oct. 31, 2004

Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

Summary of Findings President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided. […]

Oct. 27, 2004

Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured

Summary of Findings With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were […]

Oct. 26, 2004

Candidates Battle Over First-Time Voters, Mothers

A Closer Look at Key Groups

Oct. 24, 2004

Voters Impressed with Campaign

Summary of Findings Voters express increasingly positive opinions of the 2004 presidential campaign. Virtually all voters ­ 96% ­ believe the campaign is important, while a growing number also view the campaign as interesting. Fully two-thirds of voters (66%) describe the campaign as interesting, up from 50% in early September and just 35% in June. […]

Oct. 21, 2004

Polls Apart

by Andrew Kohut in the New York Times