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09.16.04

Kerry Support Rebounds, Race Again Even

Introduction and Summary Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush’s edge over his Democratic rival [...]

08.12.04

Public Faults Bush on Economy – 55% Say Jobs are Scarce

Summary of Findings With three months to go until the presidential election, the American public remains largely dissatisfied with economic conditions and with President Bush’s stewardship of the economy. Two-thirds rate the national economy as “only fair” or “poor,” while just one-third judge it to be “excellent” or “good.” Accordingly, Bush gets low ratings for [...]

07.21.04

Democratic Party Image Improvement

Summary of Findings Sen. John Kerry enters the Democratic convention next week bolstered by a number of favorable trends in public opinion, although he remains locked in a statistical tie for voter support with President George W. Bush. His party is dominant on key domestic issues and at least competitive with the Republicans on every [...]

05.12.04

Iraq Prison Scandal Hits Home, But Most Reject Troop Pullout

Summary of Findings Public satisfaction with national conditions has fallen to 33%, its lowest level in eight years, in the wake of revelations of prisoner abuse committed by U.S. soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. President Bush’s overall job approval rating also has dropped into negative territory: 44% approve of his job performance, while [...]

02.19.04

Democratic Primary Campaign Impresses Voters

Introduction and Summary So far, the presidential primary campaign has been very good for the Democratic Party. Public interest in the race has been relatively high. Nearly half of Americans (45%) have a positive overall impression of the Democratic field, up from 31% just a month ago. And while a slim majority of the public [...]

11.16.00

Campaign 2000 Highly Rated

Introduction and Summary Even with an uncertain conclusion, Campaign 2000 gets better grades from the public than most recent presidential contests. Fully 83% of voters say they learned enough from the campaign to make an informed choice — a larger percentage than expressed that view in surveys conducted in the days following the three previous [...]

11.01.00

Bush Gains on Personal Qualities

Introduction and Summary With less than a week to go before the presidential election, George W. Bush’s advantage with the voters on personal qualities is now trumping Al Gore’s edge on the issues. A steadily growing plurality has come to see the GOP candidate as more likable, more honest, more able to get things done, [...]

10.25.00

Voter Opinions Stalled

Introduction and Summary With two weeks to go until Election Day, voters still can’t choose between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The perceived strengths and weaknesses of both candidates continue to drive voter indecision. People have a better opinion of the Texas governor personally than they had in September, prior to the debates. At [...]

10.10.00

Presidential Debate Clouds Voters’ Choice

Introduction and Summary Al Gore’s personality may be costing him votes. Although a plurality of voters believe he won the first presidential debate, he has lost his small September lead over George W. Bush. As the race has narrowed, an increasing number of voters who oppose the vice president say they dislike his personality. On [...]

07.27.00

Voters Unmoved By Media Characterizations of Bush and Gore

Introduction and Summary American voters, who continue to divide their support equally between Al Gore and George W. Bush, have not been strongly influenced by the way the American news media have covered the personal character of the presidential candidates. As the conventions approach there is ample opportunity for the campaigns to make powerful appeals [...]

07.13.00

Voter Turnout May Slip Again

Introduction and Summary Americans are more satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates this year than in 1996 and 1992, and they are, if anything, less critical of the way the campaigns are being conducted and covered by the news media than they were at comparable points in those elections. Yet voters are more disengaged [...]

03.23.00

Bush Pays Price for Primary Victory

Introduction and Summary The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2000, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. Al Gore was clearly helped, and George W. Bush was just as clearly hurt. The vice president [...]

02.17.00

McCain Appeals To Pivotal Older Voters and Independents

Introduction and Summary The outcome of the New Hampshire primary has changed candidate support patterns that last year seemed all but cast in stone. Al Gore has drawn into a statistical dead-heat with George W. Bush in a general-election ballot test, largely because core Democrats are rallying behind the vice president. At the same time, [...]

02.02.00

Bush Faces Stature Gap, Bradley a Gender Gap

Notes from the New Hampshire Exit Polls

12.10.99

Independents Drive New Hampshire Poll Shifts

Also: The Civilian-Military Gap Flap

10.18.99

Candidate Qualities May Trump Issues in 2000

Introduction and Summary Even though Americans say that issues matter most, candidates’ personal qualities may be decisive in a campaign without dominant issues. Voters make fine distinctions, however, about what they want to know about candidates personally. Americans strongly reject press inquiry into most avenues of candidates’ private lives, yet at the same time place [...]

09.15.99

Too Much Money, Too Much Media Say Voters

Introduction and Summary Americans are showing signs of disaffection with a presidential campaign that is just beginning. The public thinks the press and large campaign contributors are having too much influence on who gets nominated, and a 60% majority thinks voters themselves have too little say. The latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted on the [...]

06.17.98

Don’t Blame Us

Introduction and Summary Political consultants have clear consciences: Most do not think campaign practices that suppress turnout, use scare tactics and take facts out of context are unethical. They are nearly unanimous — 97% — in the belief that negative advertising is not wrong, and few blame themselves for public disillusionment with the political process. [...]

09.13.96

Solid Clinton Lead, Small Gain for Congressional Democrats

Introduction and Summary As the fall campaign begins, Bill Clinton holds a solid lead over challengers Bob Dole and Ross Perot. But the race for control of Congress remains close. While the Democrats have gained some ground on the GOP over the course of the summer, American voters have a more positive view of incumbents [...]

03.14.96

Polls Trounce Pundits In Forecasting Primaries

Also: Wither The Perot Voter; Polling On The Buchanan Message; And You Think The Republican Party is Divided

02.29.96

Class Collisions in Response to Buchanan, Nationwide

Introduction and Summary Pat Buchanan’s populist appeals have broadened and strengthened his base as a GOP primary candidate, but at the expense of potential support from key groups that typically vote Republican in presidential elections. A 52% majority of college graduates and 53% of those who earn $75,000 a year or more are displeased with [...]

09.17.92

Clinton Maintains Lead as Bush Campaign Struggles

Report Summary Bill Clinton is in as solid a position with American voters as was George Bush four years ago at this time. The Arkansas Governor’s 53% to 38% lead over President Bush has stabilized and his support is as firm as Bush’s was in September of 1988.

07.11.92

Clinton Bounce Begins

Report Summary On the eve of the Democratic Convention, Governor Bill Clinton has taken a giant step toward improving his personal image. A Times Mirror poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening of this week finds 59% of the voting age public having a favorable impression of the Democratic candidate VS. 34% unfavorable. This is [...]

04.03.92

Electability: Bush, Clinton & Congress

Report Summary The American political landscape is marked by what appears to be the early stages of a massive voter rebellion against their presidential choices and their check kiting Congressmen. Times Mirror’s latest survey finds that discontent with Congress as an institution is coming home to affect individual incumbent members of Congress. Thirty-nine percent of [...]

01.30.92

The Governor & The Press

Report Summary The American public is divided on the issue of whether marital infidelity is something voters should consider when judging a candidate for the presidency. At the same time, a 52% majority of Americans who know of the charges against Clinton say that if they were heading a news organization they would report them. [...]

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