Why the Polls Don’t Add Up
by Andrew Kohut in The New York Times
Candidate Support 
03.29.04
Bush Support Steady in Wake of Clarke Criticisms
Summary of Findings A week’s worth of criticism of his pre-Sept. 11 record on terrorism has had little impact on President Bush’s support among voters. He is now running even with Sen. John Kerry in a head-to-head match-up among registered voters (47% Kerry- 46% Bush) after trailing Kerry by 52%-43% in mid-March. Voter opinions have [...]
03.03.04
Three-in-Ten Voters Open to Persuasion
Summary of Findings Heading into an eight-month marathon to Election Day, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry already command strong support from their respective parties and will now try to win over those in the middle: the estimated three-in-ten voters who have not yet fully committed to either candidate. Overall, 38% of voters support [...]
02.19.04
Democratic Primary Campaign Impresses Voters
Introduction and Summary So far, the presidential primary campaign has been very good for the Democratic Party. Public interest in the race has been relatively high. Nearly half of Americans (45%) have a positive overall impression of the Democratic field, up from 31% just a month ago. And while a slim majority of the public [...]
01.15.04
Economy and Anti-Terrorism Top Public’s Policy Agenda
Introduction and Summary Americans view Howard Dean as more liberal than the other leading Democratic candidates and far more liberal than the way they see themselves. For his part, President Bush is seen as more conservative than the average person. Bush is somewhat further from the ideological self-perception of the average American than are several [...]
12.08.03
Primary Preview: Surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina
Summary of Findings Voter opinion is still fluid in the early Democratic primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and especially South Carolina. As with the candidates themselves, there are significant disagreements among likely primary voters in these pivotal states on such key issues as how to deal with the postwar situation in Iraq, gay marriage [...]
11.05.03
The 2004 Political Landscape
Over the past four years, the American electorate has been dealt a series of body blows, each capable of altering the political landscape. The voting system broke down in a presidential election. A booming economy faltered, punctuated by revelations of one of the worst business scandals in U.S. history. And the country endured a [...]
09.25.03
Once Again, Voters Say: It’s the Economy
Introduction and Summary President Bush is facing an electorate that is almost as focused on the economy as it was in the fall of 1991, when rising economic concern began to unravel his father’s reelection chances. In an open-ended format, nearly half (49%) of Americans volunteer the economy or jobs as the single issues they [...]
06.12.03
66% Expect Bush Victory, But Democrats More Optimistic Than In ’91
Summary of Findings Most Americans believe President Bush will win reelection next fall, but Democrats are holding out hope for their party’s chances for success in 2004. Overall, two-thirds of registered voters (66%) think Bush will be reelected, compared with 22% who expect the Democratic candidate to prevail. In the fall of 1991, more than [...]
12.01.00
Many Question Bush Or Gore As Legitimate Winner
Introduction and Summary No matter who wins the presidency, George W. Bush or Al Gore, many Americans think that the victor will come to office because of the way the voting was conducted or counted rather than because he legitimately won the election in Florida. Ironically, this view has become more prevalent regarding a potential [...]
11.14.00
Voters Side with Bush for Now
Introduction and Summary By the weekend, George W. Bush was further ahead of Al Gore in the battle for public opinion than he was in the vote recount in Florida. A strong majority of voters, including many Gore supporters, think he will have legitimately won the presidency if he prevails in the Florida recount. And [...]
11.06.00
Popular Vote A Tossup: Bush 49%, Gore 47%, Nader 4%
Introduction and Summary The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,301 likely voters, conducted Nov. 2-5, finds 45% backing George W. Bush, 43% for Al Gore, 4% for Ralph Nader, less than 1% supporting Pat Buchanan, and 8% undecided. The Bush margin is well within sampling error, and narrowed slightly over the course of [...]
11.05.00
Slight Bush Margin Holding with Days To Go
Introduction and Summary George W. Bush continues to hold a slim edge over Al Gore in the final days of Campaign 2000. A Pew Research Center poll of 1,307 likely voters conducted November 1-4 finds 46% favoring Bush, 43% Gore, with 3% for Ralph Nader and 1% for Pat Buchanan. These results are almost identical [...]
11.01.00
Bush Gains on Personal Qualities
Introduction and Summary With less than a week to go before the presidential election, George W. Bush’s advantage with the voters on personal qualities is now trumping Al Gore’s edge on the issues. A steadily growing plurality has come to see the GOP candidate as more likable, more honest, more able to get things done, [...]
10.30.00
Attentive Swing Voters Lean Toward Gore; Inattentive Voters Are Split
As the presidential campaign moves into the home stretch, two distinctly different groups of swing voters may well determine the outcome. Attentive swing voters — those who have followed the campaign relatively closely and are just as likely to vote as those who have made up their minds — currently favor Al Gore and strongly [...]
10.25.00
Voter Opinions Stalled
Introduction and Summary With two weeks to go until Election Day, voters still can’t choose between Al Gore and George W. Bush. The perceived strengths and weaknesses of both candidates continue to drive voter indecision. People have a better opinion of the Texas governor personally than they had in September, prior to the debates. At [...]
10.10.00
Presidential Debate Clouds Voters’ Choice
Introduction and Summary Al Gore’s personality may be costing him votes. Although a plurality of voters believe he won the first presidential debate, he has lost his small September lead over George W. Bush. As the race has narrowed, an increasing number of voters who oppose the vice president say they dislike his personality. On [...]
07.27.00
Voters Unmoved By Media Characterizations of Bush and Gore
Introduction and Summary American voters, who continue to divide their support equally between Al Gore and George W. Bush, have not been strongly influenced by the way the American news media have covered the personal character of the presidential candidates. As the conventions approach there is ample opportunity for the campaigns to make powerful appeals [...]
07.14.00
Another Bush Lead Vanishes?
Poll-watchers hoping to learn now how the presidential election will turn out this fall are going to be disappointed. While Texas Gov. George W. Bush has often held the lead over Vice President Al Gore since the end of primary season, Bush’s advantage has been fleeting. More often than not, it is here one day [...]
07.13.00
Voter Turnout May Slip Again
Introduction and Summary Americans are more satisfied with their choice of presidential candidates this year than in 1996 and 1992, and they are, if anything, less critical of the way the campaigns are being conducted and covered by the news media than they were at comparable points in those elections. Yet voters are more disengaged [...]
06.16.00
Is Gore Like Bush…or is Bush Like Kennedy?
Political analysts looking for historical parallels can’t decide whether the 2000 presidential race looks more like a rerun of 1988 or 1960. Will Vice President Al Gore take a page from Vice President George Bush’s play book, when he overcame a big deficit in the early polls and soundly defeated Michael Dukakis? At a comparable [...]
05.11.00
Voter Preferences Vacillate
Introduction and Summary George W. Bush has repaired some of the damage he endured during the Republican primaries, and is now running dead-even with Al Gore. Since mid-March, Bush has regained substantial support among men and recovered modestly among independents. More voters now than six weeks ago support the Texas governor because of his stand [...]
04.14.00
So Who’s Ahead?
Voters are having a hard time making up their minds about the presidential candidates and it is showing up in the divergent results of the horse race polls. Unlike four years ago, at this point in the campaign the national polls provide little insight as to who will win the White House in November. The [...]
03.23.00
Bush Pays Price for Primary Victory
Introduction and Summary The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2000, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. Al Gore was clearly helped, and George W. Bush was just as clearly hurt. The vice president [...]
03.01.00
The Religious Landscape in Upcoming GOP Primary States
The religious profile of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party suggests that Senator John McCain’s attack on certain Christian Right leaders may cloud his chances to succeed in Southern states, as well as certain Midwestern and Western states where white evangelicals(1) make up the largest religious bloc of voters. This group comprises [...]
02.17.00
McCain Appeals To Pivotal Older Voters and Independents
Introduction and Summary The outcome of the New Hampshire primary has changed candidate support patterns that last year seemed all but cast in stone. Al Gore has drawn into a statistical dead-heat with George W. Bush in a general-election ballot test, largely because core Democrats are rallying behind the vice president. At the same time, [...]
