Aug. 25, 2008

Obama’s Challenge

Aug. 21, 2008

More Americans Question Religion’s Role In Politics

Some Americans are having a change of heart about mixing religion and politics. A new survey finds a narrow majority of the public saying that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. For a decade, majorities of Americans […]

Aug. 13, 2008

Presidential Race Draws Even

With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew’s latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a […]

Jul. 29, 2008

The Power of the Protest Vote

Jul. 17, 2008

Should Women Worry Obama?

Jul. 17, 2008

Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update

Jul. 10, 2008

Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall – perhaps much higher than in previous elections – as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start […]

May. 29, 2008

McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal

As the end of the primary season draws near, Barack Obama is the clear favorite of Democratic voters for their party’s presidential nomination. He currently holds a wide 54% to 41% lead over Hillary Clinton. But when the Illinois Democrat is tested against John McCain in a general election matchup, he now runs about […]

May. 14, 2008

Opinion of Oprah More Politicized, Gore’s Ratings Improve

Summary of Findings Long one of America’s best-known and best-liked media figures, Oprah Winfrey saw her popularity slip after her endorsement of Barack Obama last year. A new survey shows that her image has not recovered, and opinions about the talk show host have become increasingly divided along partisan political lines. Currently, 68% of Americans […]

May. 1, 2008

Obama’s Image Slips, His Lead Over Clinton Disappears

Summary of Findings Democratic voters are not as positive about Barack Obama as they were a month ago. Somewhat smaller percentages of Democrats describe Obama in favorable terms, and he has lost his lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. Nationally, Democratic voters are about evenly divided between Obama and Clinton; […]

Apr. 17, 2008

No Clear Advantage

One of the more surprising twists in a surprising year is that despite the obvious Republican disadvantages in this election cycle, John McCain is matching up pretty well against Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in tests being conducted by national polls. Electability is an issue for Democrats, and one that both Senators Obama and Clinton […]

Mar. 27, 2008

Obama Weathers the Wright Storm, Clinton Faces Credibility Problem.

Summary of Findings The videos of Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s controversial sermons and Barack Obama’s subsequent speech on race and politics have attracted more public attention than any events thus far in the 2008 presidential campaign. A majority of the public (51%) said they heard “a lot” about the videos, and an even larger percentage (54%) […]

Feb. 28, 2008

Obama Has The Lead, But Potential Problems Too

Summary of Findings Barack Obama is riding high as the March 4 primaries approach. Obama has moved out to a broad-based advantage over Hillary Clinton in the national Democratic primary contest and holds a 50%-43% lead over John McCain in a general election matchup. However, the survey results point to several potential hazards for Obama. […]

Feb. 11, 2008

Young Voters in 2008 Presidential Primaries

A great deal of attention on Super Tuesday was focused on young voters, especially in the Democratic contests. Pew polling over the past few years has shown that young voters are trending Democratic and constitute an important constituency for the party. Currently, a clear majority of registered voters ages 18-29 say they are Democrats or […]

Feb. 8, 2008

Patterns of Distinction

In terms of the numbers, Super Tuesday was as much a national election as it was the sum of individual contests in 24 states. While significant variations emerged in voting patterns from state to state, similarities outweighed differences. In both political parties, distinct patterns shaped the outcomes from coast to coast, and they provide some […]

Feb. 3, 2008

McCain’s Support Soars, Democratic Race Tightens

Summary of Findings Barack Obama and John McCain have made significant gains in support as the field of candidates has narrowed in both parties. John McCain now leads 42%-22% over Mitt Romney among Republican voters nationally. Support for McCain is up 13 points since mid-January, and he currently draws about twice as much support as […]

Feb. 1, 2008

A Look at the Numbers

So far, the 2008 primaries and caucuses have been anything but predictable – comebacks, fallbacks, not to mention surprised pollsters. But a closer look reveals some common themes that have emerged, despite a still-forming consensus about nominees. read the full article at nytimes.com

Jan. 31, 2008

The Impact Of “Cell-Onlys” On Public Opinion Polling

Summary of Findings The proportion of Americans who rely solely on a cell phone for their telephone service continues to grow, as does the share who still have a landline phone but do most of their calling on their cell phone. With these changes, there is an increased concern that polls conducted only on landline […]

Jan. 28, 2008

The South Carolina Democratic Primary in Black and White

The results in Saturday’s Democratic primary in South Carolina offer important evidence — if not yet answers — to three big questions in this campaign: Can Barack Obama solidify all segments of the black vote behind him? Can he be competitive among white voters, especially in the South? And can we trust pre-election polls in […]

Jan. 25, 2008

Raising McCain

Nearly lost in the blizzard of recent poll reports were the findings of a Gallup survey that the current Republican frontrunner, John McCain, might well give each of the two Democratic frontrunners a run for their money. When Gallup asked 1,598 likely voters whom they’d back if the presidential election were held today, respondents chose […]