Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.

Clearly, both campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the nine battleground states: Fully 78% of registered voters in those states say they have received something in the mail from one or more of the presidential candidates, while 60% have gotten pre-recorded calls about the campaign. Nationwide, 49% have received mail from the candidates and 42% have gotten campaign robocalls.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 24-28 among 1,678 registered voters, including 1,495 likely voters, finds that about a third of all voters (32%) say they have been contacted by the Obama campaign (11%) or both campaigns (21%), while about as many (31%) say they have been contacted by the Romney campaign (10%) or both (21%). The survey was conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the U.S.

Similarly, among voters in the nine battleground states, nearly identical percentages say they have been contacted by both campaigns (51% by Obama or both, 52% by Romney or both.)

There are only modest differences in reported campaign contacts between Obama and Romney voters in the nine battleground states. Large majorities of both Obama voters and Romney voters say they have received mail from the candidates and pre-recorded campaign calls. And identical percentages of both groups say they have received personal phone calls from someone about the campaign (40% each).

However, Obama voters in the battleground states are more likely than Romney voters to say that they have received emails or text messages about the campaign (43% vs. 30%) or have been visited at home by someone talking about the campaign (25% vs. 14%).

More than six-in-ten (63%) Obama voters in battleground states say they have been contacted by either the Obama campaign (25%) or both campaigns (38%). About as many Romney voters (62%) in these states say they have been contacted by either the Romney campaign (21%) or both campaigns.

Early Voting 2008-2012

Both campaigns have made efforts to increase early voting, particularly in the battleground states. Overall, about a quarter of registered voters (26%) who have been contacted by either the Obama campaign, the Romney campaign, or both, say they have been encouraged to vote before Election Day. Among voters in the battleground states who have been contacted by the campaigns, 36% have been encouraged to vote early.

The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.

In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.

Campaign Activism

The poll finds that Romney’s supporters are more likely than supporters of Obama to say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. But on other measures of campaign activism there is little difference between supporters of the two candidates.

One-in-five Obama voters (20%), and about the same percentage of Romney voters (18%), say they have followed a candidate’s updates on Twitter or Facebook. A somewhat greater share of Obama voters than Romney voters say they have contributed any money to the presidential candidates (23% of Obama voters, 15% of Romney voters).

There are age differences in the percentages of voters who follow the candidates on social networks. About a quarter (26%) of voters younger than 30 follow candidate updates on Twitter or Facebook. That compares with 24% of voters 30-to-49, 15% of those 50-to-64 and 8% of those 65 and older.

Robo-Calls: Most Don’t Listen

Far more voters in battleground states receive pre-recorded calls about the campaign than do voters in less contested states. But their reactions are similar: 64% of voters in battleground states who get such calls do not listen to them. Similar percentages of voters in red states (72%) and blue states (71%) hang up on robocalls.

Among those who do not listen to robocalls, overwhelming percentages in all states, including 77% in battleground states, treat them as a minor annoyance. Just one-in-five voters in battleground states, and similar percentages in red and blue states, who hang up on robocalls say such calls make them angry.

Politics from the Pulpit

While many regular churchgoers say they have been encouraged to vote by their clergy, relatively few say church leaders are discussing the candidates directly or favoring one candidate over the other. Black Protestants are far more likely than white Protestants or Catholics to say they are hearing about the candidates and the importance of voting, and the messages they are hearing overwhelmingly favor Barack Obama.

Among those who attend religious services at least once or twice a month, about half (52%) say their clergy have spoken out about the importance of voting over the past few months. Just one-in-five (19%) say their clergy have spoken about the candidates themselves, according to the survey, conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life and the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Nearly eight-in-ten (79%) black Protestant churchgoers say their clergy have spoken out about the importance of voting, compared with about half of white evangelical Protestant (52%) and white Catholic (46%) churchgoers. Only about a third (32%) of white mainline Protestants who attend services say their clergy have discussed the importance of voting.

Black Protestants are twice as likely as churchgoers overall to be hearing about the candidates at church. Among regular churchgoers, four-in-ten (40%) black Protestants say their clergy have spoken directly about the candidates, compared with 17% of white Catholics, 12% of white evangelicals and just 5% of white mainline Protestants.

Most regular churchgoers say the messages they are hearing in church are neutral when it comes to the 2012 election – whether or not they mention the candidates directly. Only about three-in-ten say what they are hearing at church is more supportive of one candidate or the other. Among those who feel their clergy’s messages favor a candidate, roughly equal numbers say the messages support Obama (15%) as Romney (14%).

What people are hearing varies greatly by race. Nearly half (45%) of black Protestant churchgoers say the messages they hear at church favor a candidate, and every one of those says the message favors Obama. Fewer white churchgoers say they are hearing things that favor a candidate, but among those who are, the messages are far more favorable to Romney than Obama. In particular, white evangelical churchgoers say their clergy have tended to be more supportive of Romney (26%) than Obama (5%). Among white Catholic churchgoers, 21% say their clergy’s messages have been more supportive of Romney, compared with 4% who say the messages have been more supportive of Obama.

Overall, few voters are hearing messages at church that conflict with their own voting preferences. Among churchgoers who favor Obama, 32% say what they are hearing at church is supportive of Obama, compared with just 5% who say the messages from their clergy are more supportive of Romney. Similarly, among Romney voters who attend services at least monthly, more are hearing messages favorable to Romney (24%) than Obama (1%).

Clergy Discussion of the Issues

Three-quarters of those who say they attend religious services at least monthly (74%) say their clergy have recently spoken out about hunger and poverty. Roughly one-third say their clergy have spoken out about abortion (37%) and homosexuality (33%). One-fifth of those who attend religious services at least monthly have heard their clergy speak out about government policies they believe restrict religious liberty (21%), and 16% say their clergy have addressed immigration.

Large majorities of churchgoers in all major religious groups say their clergy have spoken out about hunger and poverty, including 83% of white Catholics, 74% of black Protestants, 73% of white mainline Protestants and 69% of white evangelicals.

Catholics report having heard about abortion from the pulpit at higher rates than other groups; 62% of Catholics say their clergy have discussed abortion, compared with 36% of white evangelical Protestants, 29% of black Protestants and 19% of white mainline Protestants. Three-in-ten Catholics (32%) also say their clergy have spoken out about religious liberty; fewer Protestants (18%) say their clergy have discussed this issue.

Four-in-ten white evangelicals say their clergy have spoken out recently about homosexuality, and 37% of black Protestants say the same. By comparison, fewer white mainline Protestants (24%) and white Catholics (20%) say their clergy have addressed this issue.

Campaign News Interest

In a separate survey, conducted Oct. 25-28, 2012, 52% say they are following news about the campaign very closely, which is little changed from last week (48%).

During the same week four years ago (Oct. 24-27, 2008), 44% tracked election news very closely, down from 61% a week earlier. Interest in campaign news subsequently rebounded. During the weekend before the 2008 election (Oct. 31-Nov. 3, 2008), 57% followed news about the election very closely.

October News Interest

The news interest survey finds that the election and the nation’s economy were the public’s top stories in October.

The current survey finds relatively modest interest in Hurricane Sandy; 28% tracked news about the hurricane very closely. The survey was conducted before the hurricane hit the East Coast on Oct. 29.

When asked an open-ended question about the effect of increased outside spending on the election, a plurality (48%) expresses no opinion. About equal percentages indicate the effect will be neutral (27%) or negative (24%). Just 2% give a positive response about the effect of more outside political spending.

Those who have heard a lot about this issue –which includes nearly equal shares of Republicans and Democrats – nearly half (47%) say increased outside election spending say it will have a negative effect, while 35% say it will have a neutral effect. Among those who have heard little or nothing about increased outside spending, most (59%) have no opinion; 24% say the impact will neutral and 16% say it will be negative.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted July 26-29, 2012 among 1,010 adults, finds that few people thing either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is gaining an advantage as a result of increased election spending by outside groups. About half (51%) say neither candidate will benefit more than the other, 16% say Romney will benefit more than Obama, while about as many (15%) say Obama will benefit more than Romney.

There are only modest partisan differences in views of whether Obama or Romney will benefit more from increased spending by outside groups. A majority of Republicans (55%) and a plurality of Democrats (42%) say neither candidate will benefit more than the other.

Among those who have heard a lot about increased campaign spending by outside groups, 34% say Romney will benefit more than Obama, while 16% say Obama will benefit more.

Super PACs Not Widely Known

Reflecting the public’s low level of awareness about campaign finance and this year’s election, just 40% can correctly identify a “super PAC” as a group that is able to accept unlimited political donations. Nearly half (46%) don’t know what the term refers to, while 14% give incorrect responses.

Partisan differences in knowledge of the term are modest. Seven-in-ten (70%) of those who have heard a lot about increased campaign spending by outside groups correctly identify a Super-PAC. That compared with just 30% of those who have heard less about the issue.

And on both issues, Romney is faring far worse against Obama than did John McCain, who made national security a centerpiece of his campaign.

From Romney’s perspective, it might not seem to be much of a problem running behind Obama on foreign policy. Opinion polls consistently find that foreign policy and national security are far overshadowed by the economy among the nation’s top problems. And it is not as if McCain’s strengths on these issues led him to victory four years ago.

In Pew Research’s March survey, just 7% volunteered any foreign issue – including the war in Afghanistan– as the most important problem facing the nation. In 2004, 41% cited a foreign policy concern as the top national problem and in July 2008, as the economic crisis was deepening, 25% did so.

Yet all presidential challengers need to show that they can handle the duties of commander-in-chief. And in June, Romney trailed Obama by 13 points (50% to 37%) as the candidate better described by the phrase “would use good judgment in a crisis.” The question does not specifically ask about a foreign crisis, although many voters undoubtedly think of it in this context.

In July 2008, McCain led Obama by nine points as the candidate more likely to use good judgment in a crisis. But he subsequently lost that advantage in late September, amid a domestic crisis – the Wall Street financial meltdown.

Obama’s Trip in ’08

In traveling abroad to burnish his foreign policy credentials for voters at home, Romney is taking a page from Obama’s playbook. Obama embarked on his own tour of Europe and the Middle East four years ago this week.

Obama’s trip attracted big crowds and enormous press coverage. During his week-long tour, 51% of all election news coverage was devoted to his trip, making it one of the most heavily covered events in the 2008 campaign. And 62% of the public said they heard about Obama’s trip; at that point in the campaign, the only development that attracted more interest was when Obama captured the Democratic nomination in June.

However, the trip may have done more to raise Obama’s profile than to change opinions about him. Just 15% said they learned a lot about his approach to foreign policy from news coverage of the trip; another 33% said they learned something about his foreign policy views. And in early August, Obama held a slight lead over McCain (46% to 43%), as he had in July prior to his trip (47% to 42%).

Republicans and Democrats find little to agree on these days, but they have some similar reactions to the 2012 presidential campaign. Nearly identical percentages of Republicans and Democrats say the election will be exhausting. On the positive side, there also is widespread partisan agreement that the campaign will be informative.

The national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted June 7-17 among 2,013 adults, finds that just 49% expect the election to be exciting. Nearly six-in-ten Democrats (59%) say the election will be exciting, compared with 51% of Republicans and just 41% of independents.

The expectation that the election will be exhausting is in line with perceptions of the campaign so far. Most Americans say the campaign has been too long and dull (56% each), while 53% say it has been too negative. At the same time, an overwhelming majority (79%) views the presidential campaign as important.

Comparable percentages of Republicans, Democrats and independents say that the campaign has been too long and too negative. And more than eight-in-ten Republicans (85%) and Democrats (83%) say the campaign is important, as do 77% of independents.

However, there are partisan differences in views of campaign 2012. Notably, fewer Republicans than Democrats say the campaign is interesting. Republicans are less likely to say the campaign is interesting – and more likely to view it as dull – than they were in late March, before Mitt Romney effectively wrapped up the GOP nomination.

Currently, 33% of Republicans say the presidential campaign is interesting down from 52% in late March (March 22-25). The share of Republicans describing this year’s campaign as dull has spiked from 42% to 60% since then. By contrast, Democrats are finding the campaign increasingly interesting as the general election gets underway. Currently, 45% say it is interesting, up from 36% in March.

While fewer Republicans than Democrats currently say the campaign has been interesting, GOP voters are more engaged than Democratic voters in the 2012 campaign. For instance, more Republicans are giving quite a lot of thought to the election and more say it really matters who wins. (For more see “GOP Holds Early Turnout Edge, But Little Enthusiasm for Romney,” June 21, 2012.)

Views of Campaigns: Present and Past

The public has long expressed the view that presidential campaigns are too long. In surveys conducted over the past three campaigns, asked at different stages in race, no fewer than 50% have said campaigns were too long.

Large majorities have consistently said that presidential campaigns are important. Currently, 79% say the presidential campaign is important; in June 2004, an identical percentage expressed this view. In February 2008, an even higher percentage (90%) said the presidential campaign was important.

The 2008 campaign was viewed more positively in several respects. In surveys conducted between February and October of that election year, majorities consistently said it was informative, compared with just 40% who say that about the 2012 campaign today. The share who described the 2012 campaign as interesting stood at 59% in June 2008 and rose to 71% by mid-October of that year. Just 34% see this year’s campaign as interesting.

But 2008 was the exception on many of these measures. Opinions about the 2012 presidential campaign today are fairly similar to the public’s views in June 2004. At that time, 79% said the campaign was important (the same percentage as today), 52% said it was too long (59% today) and just 33% said it was interesting (34% today).

Romney Viewed as More Personally Critical

More voters say that both presidential candidates have been too personally critical of each other than did so at this point in the 2008 campaign.

Currently, 43% of registered voters say Mitt Romney has been too personally critical of Barack Obama, while 49% say he has not. Three-in-ten voters (30%) say Obama has been too critical of Romney, while about twice as many (61%) disagree.

In June 2008, just 26% of voters said John McCain was too personally critical of Obama, while even fewer (19%) said Obama was too critical of McCain.

Perceptions today are similar to the last time an incumbent was running for reelection. In June 2004, 44% of voters said John Kerry was too personally critical of George W. Bush, about the same as the percentage saying that about Romney today. And 33% said the Bush was being too critical of Kerry, similar to the 30% that say that about Obama today.

Campaign Ads Seen as Mix of Positive, Negative

With more than four months to go until Election Day, most voters (64%) say they have already seen or heard commercials about Romney and/or Obama. But just 16% say they have seen a lot of campaign ads at this early point in the race.

Voters in the closely contested battleground states are more likely than those in relatively safe Republican or Democratic states to have seen presidential campaign ads. Still, only about quarter (24%) of the voters in those states have seen a lot of ads, compared with 12% of voters in Republican and Democratic states.

Most (60%) who have seen or heard presidential campaign commercials this year say they have been a mix of positive and negative ads. Another 30% say the ads they have seen have been mostly negative, while just 7% say they have been mostly positive. This is comparable in both battleground and non-battleground states.

As campaign advertisements funded by Super PACs dominate the airwaves in the lead-up to the South Carolina primaries this Saturday, 54% of registered voters say they have heard about the 2010 Supreme Court decision that allows corporations and individuals to spend as much money as they want on political advertising as long as it is not coordinated with candidate campaigns.

Fully 65% of those who are aware of the new rules on independent expenditures say they are having a negative effect on the 2012 presidential campaign. And among those who have heard a lot about these new campaign finance rules, 78% say the effect has been negative.

There is no substantial partisan divide in awareness and opinions of the new campaign spending rules. Roughly half of Republicans, Democrats and independents alike have heard about the court decision allowing unlimited independent expenditures. And among those who have heard about it, comparably wide majorities in each group say it is having a negative effect on the campaign this year.

Men are more likely than women to say they have heard at least a little about the Supreme Court decision and its effects, and awareness is also higher among college graduates. There is little difference in awareness across age or region of the country. Among those who have heard about the decision, majorities of all groups see the impact on the 2012 presidential campaign as negative.

]]> http://www.people-press.org/2012/01/17/super-pacs-having-negative-impact-say-voters-aware-of-citizens-united-ruling/feed/ 0 http://www.people-press.org/2012/01/13/few-gop-voters-would-be-swayed-by-endorsements/ http://www.people-press.org/2012/01/13/few-gop-voters-would-be-swayed-by-endorsements/#comments Fri, 13 Jan 2012 12:00:50 +0000 Pew Research Center for the People and the Press http://www.people-press.org/?p=20037569 Political endorsements by prominent Republicans would provide little help for GOP candidates in the primaries and might be more of a liability than a benefit in a general election campaign.

Most Republican and Republican-leaning voters say that candidate endorsements by leading GOP figures, including George W. Bush, Sarah Palin and John McCain, would make no difference in their vote, according to a survey conducted Jan. 5-8 among 1,000 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post. The same is true for endorsements by the governor of their state, their local newspaper, and their minister priest or rabbi.

Bush’s endorsement would have a potentially positive impact among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, as would Palin’s. Nearly three-in-ten (28%) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate Bush supported, 11% would be less likely and 59% say Bush’s backing would make no difference. Nearly a quarter (23%) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate supported by Palin, 15% say they would be less likely to vote for that candidate; 61% say a Palin endorsement would make no difference.

Yet among all voters, endorsements by Bush and Palin – as well as other prominent Republicans – would be seen more negatively than positively. Roughly a quarter (26%) of all registered voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate supported by Bush, 14% say they would be more likely and 58% say it would make no difference. While 28% of all voters would view a Palin endorsement negatively, only 11% would view it positively and 60% say it would not matter.

McCain endorsed Mitt Romney in New Hampshire on Jan. 4, before that state’s primary. Among GOP voters nationally, McCain’s endorsement is a wash – about as many say they would be more likely (19%) as less likely (17%) to vote for a candidate supported by McCain; 63% say McCain’s endorsement would make no difference. Among all voters, the balance of opinion regarding a McCain endorsement is negative: 23% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate McCain supported, 13% less likely, and 63% say it would make no difference.

Trump, Bachmann, Cain

An endorsement by Donald Trump would draw a mixed reaction among Republican and Republican-leaning voters: 20% say they would be less likely to support a candidate backed by Trump, 13% more likely and 64% say it would make no difference.

Among all voters, however, more than three times as many would view a Trump endorsement negatively than positively (28% vs. 8%). That is little changed from 2007.

Michele Bachmann is the only GOP figure whose endorsement would be viewed more negatively than positively by Republican and Republican-leaning voters: 18% would be less likely to vote for a candidate Bachmann supported, 10% more likely; 70% say Bachmann’s endorsement would make no difference.

Cain’s endorsement, like Trump’s, would get a mixed reaction among Republicans (17% more likely, 15% less likely). Among all voters, 21% would view Cain’s support for a candidate negatively while just 8% would view it positively.

In views of other endorsements, as many voters say they would be more likely as less likely to vote for a candidate supported by their state’s governor (16% each); that also is the case for an endorsement by their local newspaper (13% more, 12% less).

However, about twice as many say they would be more likely than less likely to vote for a candidate supported by their minister, priest or rabbi (19% vs. 9%). Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 22% view such an endorsement positively while just 6% view it negatively. Yet among Republican voters, as well as among all voters, most say that support for a candidate by their minister would have no effect on their vote (70% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, 69% of all voters).

About the Survey

The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted January 5-8, 2012 among a national sample of 1,000 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (600 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 400 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 184 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see:  http://www.people-press.org/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

 

]]> http://www.people-press.org/2012/01/13/few-gop-voters-would-be-swayed-by-endorsements/feed/ 0 http://www.people-press.org/2010/11/11/mixed-reactions-to-republican-midterm-win/ http://www.people-press.org/2010/11/11/mixed-reactions-to-republican-midterm-win/#comments Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:24:54 +0000 Pew Research Center for the People and the Press http://people-press.organization/?p=675 Overview

The public, voters and non-voters alike, has a subdued reaction to the Republican Party’s midterm election victory. Four years ago, the response to the Democrats regaining full control of Congress was far more positive, as it was in 1994 when the GOP won a historic victory. Fewer people today say they are happy about the Republican victory, approve of the GOP’s plans for the future, and far fewer believe Republicans will be successful in getting their programs passed into law.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 4-7 among 1,255 adults, finds 48% saying they are happy that the Republican Party won control of the House while 34% are unhappy. Four years ago, 60% said they were happy the Democrats won full control of Congress, compared with just 24% who were unhappy. That mirrored the public’s reaction in December 1994 to the GOP winning control of Congress for the first time in 40 years (57% happy vs. 31% unhappy).

In the current survey, 52% of those who said they voted in the Nov. 2 election were happy with the outcome compared with 42% of non-voters. Still, more voters in 2006 – 60% – said they were happy with the Democrats’ victory.

The public has a mixed reaction to the Republican policies and plans for the future: 41% approve, while nearly as many (37%) disapprove. Approval is somewhat greater among voters (45%) than among non-voters (35%). But on balance, both the general public and voters express less positive views of the GOP’s policies than they did of the Democrats’ proposals after the 2006 election.

The public is skeptical that the GOP will be successful in getting its programs passed into law. About four-in-ten (43%) think they will be successful while 37% say they will be unsuccessful. Following the elections of 2006 and 1994, when the victorious parties gained majorities in both the House and Senate, far more people thought they would be successful in enacting their agenda (59% in 2006, 62% in 1994).

There is little optimism that, in the wake of the election, relations between the two parties will improve. Just 22% expect relations between Republicans and Democrats to get better in the coming year, 28% say they will get worse, while 48% say they will stay about the same as they are now. Two years ago, after the presidential election, 37% of voters expected partisan relations to improve and just 18% thought they would get worse.

Most Americans (55%) say that Republican leaders in Congress should work with Barack Obama, even if that disappoints some of their supporters. Even more (62%) want Obama to cooperate with GOP leaders, even if that disappoints some Democrats.

Independents want the two sides to work together – 57% say GOP leaders should cooperate with Obama while about as many (59%) say that the president should work with GOP leaders. But as many Democrats say Obama should stand up to Republican leaders (43%) as work with them (46%).

Republicans are even less interested in seeing their party’s congressional leaders work with Obama – and far fewer GOP voters want their party’s leaders to work with Obama than did so after the 2008 presidential election. Currently 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters want GOP leaders to stand up to Obama, up from 47% shortly after the presidential election two years ago.

On balance, more Americans say that Obama, rather than Republican congressional leaders, should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. Nearly half (49%) say President Obama should take the lead, compared with 30% who say GOP leaders. Following the 2006 election, opinion on this measure was nearly reversed – 29% said President George W. Bush should take the lead, while 51% said Democratic congressional leaders.

At the same time, however, the public says that Republicans will have a better approach than Obama on taxes, the budget deficit, and jobs and economic growth. On Social Security and health care, neither side’s approach is favored, while Obama holds a modest advantage on foreign policy.

Cut Government But…

Americans express more conservative views about the role of government than they did just two years ago. However, when it comes to the major policy decisions that will arise in coming months, the public is closely divided.

Nearly as many approve (43%) as disapprove (47%) of the new health care law, and opinions are split over what Congress should do about the legislation. Four-in-ten (40%) favor repealing the health care law, but a larger proportion (52%) says that the law should be expanded (30%) or kept as it is (22%).

Opinion about what to do with the tax cuts passed during the Bush administration is divided three ways: 34% favor keeping all of the tax cuts; 30% say the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed while other reductions stay in place; and 28% say all the tax cuts should be repealed.

More people say that if they were setting priorities for the government, they would place a higher priority on reducing the federal budget deficit (50%) than on spending more to help the economy recover (43%). Those who cast a midterm ballot are more likely than nonvoters to see reducing the budget deficit as a higher priority (55% to 41%).

Substantial partisan gaps are evident in attitudes toward all of these issues. However, Republicans are more unified than Democrats in their views of what to do about health care legislation and tax cuts. Fully 77% of Republicans favor repealing the health care bill, while Democrats are split between expanding the measure (48%) and keeping it as it is (33%). And while 56% of Republicans favor keeping all the tax cuts, about as many Democrats favor repealing just the tax cuts for the wealthy (41%) as support getting rid of all the tax cuts (38%).

These attitudes reflect a continuing difference between Republicans and Democrats over the parties’ ideological directions. Over the past two years, Republican and Republican-leaning independents have consistently favored the GOP moving in a more conservative direction. Democrats and Democratic leaners have been just as consistent in their preference that their party move in a more moderate direction.

Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly favor the GOP moving in a more conservative direction: 71% express this view compared with just 40% of Republicans who have no opinion of the Tea Party or disagree with it.

Lower Grades for Campaign 2010

Voters express somewhat more negative views of the just-concluded campaign than they did of the 2006 midterm election. Fully 77% of voters say there was more negative campaigning or mud-slinging than in previous elections; 69% of voters expressed this view after the 2006 election.

Most voters (64%) say they learned enough to make an informed choice, but an even higher percentage said this in November 2006 (72%). And slightly fewer voters say there was more discussion of issues than did so after the 2006 election (35% today, 40% then).

Far more Republican voters (50%) say there was more discussion of issues than said that in 2006 (32%). By contrast, just 28% of Democratic voters said issues received m
ore attention – down from 50% who said this after the Democrats regained control of Congress in 2006.

Other Important Findings

• President Obama’s approval rating stands at 44%; an identical percentage disapproves of his job performance.

• Roughly a third of Democrats (34%) say they would like to see other Democratic candidates challenge Obama for the party’s nomination in 2012. In December 1994, far more Democrats (66%) supported a primary challenge to President Clinton.

• Just 16% of registered voters who attend religious services at least once a month say election information was available at their place of worship, down from 25% after the 2006 midterms.

• The GOP continues to be seen as a leaderless party: 51% say they don’t know who leads the Republican Party while 14% volunteer that no one does. More now see John Boehner as the leader of the GOP (10%) than did so in September (4%).

• There is no clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president: Sarah Palin (15%), Mike Huckabee (15%), and Mitt Romney (13%) all receive about the same levels of support.

Pew Research Center’s final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday’s midterm election. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50% to 40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

In addition, the poll finds that the judgments of voters who are still uncertain or undecided do not favor either party. About as many likely voters say they lean toward a Republican candidate as toward a Democrat (3% each). And an analysis of undecided voters – 7% of all likely voters – shows no clear signs of their likelihood of favoring one party over the other by a significant margin.

Many of the patterns apparent throughout the 2010 campaign remain clearly evident in its final days. First, the Republicans enjoy a substantial engagement advantage. The GOP’s overall lead is only evident when the sample is narrowed to likely voters. Among all registered voters, preferences are about evenly divided – 44% Democrat, 43% Republican.

This represents one of the largest gaps in preferences between all voters and likely voters ever recorded in Pew Research Center surveys. As was the case earlier in the campaign, this is more a consequence of unusually high engagement among Republicans than disengagement among Democrats. Since September, a growing number of Democrats say they have given a lot of thought to the election, but they still lag Republicans by a wide margin. The current levels of Democratic engagement are fairly typical for a midterm election, though they are somewhat below what they were in 2006, when the party regained control of Congress.

Second, the engagement gap notwithstanding, the Republicans owe much of their lead to strong backing from independents and other non-partisan voters. As in previous polls, likely independent voters favor GOP candidates by a wide margin – currently, 45% to 32%. Shortly before the 2006 election, independents and backed Democratic candidates by a 42% to 35% margin.

Third, compared with 2006, the GOP has made gains among many segments of the electorate, but especially men, voters age 65 and older, and whites. The Democrats hold substantial leads only among African Americans, younger voters, those with low family incomes, union households and the religiously unaffiliated.

The job situation continues to be the dominant issue in 2010. Nearly four-in-ten likely voters (38%) say the job situation will be most important in their vote, compared with 24% who say health care will be most important and 19% who cite the deficit; just 7% of likely voters say either the situation in Afghanistan (4%) or terrorism (3%). The deficit and health care rival jobs as the top voting issue for Republicans; among Democratic and independent likely voters, far more say jobs will be most important than say any other issue.

The pre-election survey indicates that overall voter turnout is likely to be as high this year as in 2006 – when 40% of age eligible voters cast a ballot – and higher than in previous midterms. Reflecting the growing popularity of early voting, 25% of likely voters say they have already voted, up from 18% in the final survey four years ago. Among those who have already voted, 49% say they have voted for a Republican candidate, while 41% have voted for a Democrat.

GOP Turnout Advantage Remains Large

In the final weeks of the campaign, there are no signs that the large engagement gap favoring the Republican Party has narrowed. Republican voters continue to be far more likely than Democrats to say they have given a lot of thought to this year’s election (70% vs. 55%); more Republicans than Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s congressional election (61% vs. 41%); and Republicans are eight points more likely to say they are following campaign news “very closely” (39% vs. 31%).

These measures suggest that overall turnout is likely to be as high this year as in the 2006 midterm elections. Among registered voters, 59% say they have given a lot of thought to this election, comparable to the 61% who said this in the closing days of the 2006 campaign, and higher than the 52% and 49% who said this in 2002 and 1998, respectively. When it comes to campaign news, 34% are following very closely, again comparable with 2006 (33%) and substantially higher than in previous midterm elections.

Fully 70% of Republicans have given a lot of thought to this election, the highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles. And the differential between Republicans and Democrats is larger than ever previously recorded.

Because of this large engagement gap, the likely electorate is skewed toward voting blocs that favor the GOP. While 16% of all registered voters are under age 30, this age group makes up only 8% of likely voters due to their lower levels of interest and commitment to voting. Similarly, lower income Americans, who tend to favor the Democrats, make up a smaller share of the likely electorate due to their lower engagement levels. These patterns are not unusual; in most election cycles, turnout tends to be lower among a number of voting blocs that favor the Democratic Party. For a full profile of registered and likely voters in previous midterm election cycles, see page 13.

Issues and the Vote

The economy has dominated much of the campaign debate this fall, but it is not the only issue on the minds of voters. Asked to choose among a list of six issues, 38% of likely voters selected the job situation as the most important issue in their vote. Nearly a quarter (24%) selected health care, and 19% picked the deficit first. Immigration (at 6%), Afghanistan (4%) and terrorism (3%) trailed the top three.

Among Republicans, comparable percentages cite the job situation (30%), the deficit (27%) and health care (25%) as most important. Among Democrats, jobs clearly tops the list (at 47%), but health care is cited by 28% as most important to their vote.

Health care is cited by a 53% majority of voters when given the opportunity to cite two issues. The job situation remains the most frequently cited issue (at 62%). The deficit is mentioned by 37% of voters as one of the top two issues.

Voters who cite the job situation as a top issue tilt toward the Democratic candidate for Congress (49% Democratic, 42% Republican). Those who cite health care are nearly evenly divided in their vote preference (47% Republican, 46% Democrat). But those who cite the deficit as one of the top two issues are voting Republican by more than two-to-one (63% Republican, 29% Democrat).

The relatively small percentage of likely voters who cite immigration and terrorism as top issues also tip heavily in a Republican direction (65%-28% Republican among those citing immigration, 55%-37% among those citing terrorism). Voters who see the situation in Afghanistan as a top issue are voting Democratic by a 64% to 25% margin.

National Factors Loom Large for Voters

In what has turned out to be a nationalized election, about six-in-ten voters (62%) say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in their votes this year. More than half (54%) see their vote as a referendum on Barack Obama – but those people are divided; 28% see it as a vote against Obama, while 26% see it as a vote for the president. And a plurality (35%) say that national issues – as opposed to local concerns or a candidate’s character and experience – will make the biggest difference in how they vote. These numbers have changed only slightly in recent months.

The 62% who say that party control of Congress will be a factor in their votes nearly matches the 61% of registered voters who said this in 2006. Just before the 2002 midterms, about half (48%) said party control would be a factor. This year, 71% of those planning to vote Republican say party control will play a role in their votes, while 64% of those planning to vote Democratic say the same.

More than a third of voters (35%) say national issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote; 28% say local issues will and 24% say a candidate’s character and experience will. Those numbers are comparable to 2006, another highly nationalized election when control of Congress was in play. In 1994, however, a 38% plurality said local and state issues were the biggest factors, 30% said a candidate’s character and experience were and just 22% named national issues as the biggest factor.

Currently, 44% of those who plan to vote Republican say national issues will be the biggest factor, compared with 30% of those who plan to vote Democratic. A plurality of independents (35%) also say this. In 2006, 38% of those planning to vote Democratic said national issues would be the biggest factor; 32% of those who planned to vote Republican said the same.

While just more than half say they see their votes as a statement about Obama (26% for, 28% against), about four-in-ten (42%) say the president will not be much of a factor in their votes.

More than half of those planning to vote Democratic (52%) say they view their vote as a vote for the president, while 56% of those planning to vote Republican see their vote as a vote against Obama.

In 2006, during Bush’s second term, about two-thirds of those planning to vote Democratic (65%) said their vote was a vote against the president; just 44% of those planning to vote Republican said their vote was a vote in support of Bush.

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Runs High

As has been the case throughout the 2010 campaign, voters express high levels of anti-incumbent sentiment. Nearly a third (32%) say they would not like to see their own member of Congress reelected, and 51% say they would not like to see most members reelected. On both measures, levels of anti-incumbent sentiment are as high as in any midterm election cycle dating to 1994.

Opposition to incumbents runs particularly high among Republican voters. Three-quarters of Republicans (75%) do not want most members reelected and 40% do not want their own member returned to office. Far smaller percentages of Democratic voters say they do not want to see most members (25%) or their own member (19%) reelected. Independent voters track closer to Republicans with 58% preferring that most members are not reelected and 38% saying they would not like their own representative to retain their seat.

Voter Outreach

On the eve of the election, most voters say they have been contacted by candidates or political groups this season. About eight-in-ten (79%) report having received printed mail from candidates or political groups and six-in-ten (60%) say they have received pre-recorded telephone calls about the elections. Smaller percentages report having been contacted by a live person talking about the elections either over the telephone (31%) or in person at home (19%). About a quarter say they have received email (27%) and 5% say they have received a text message from political groups or candidates. In addition to direct contacts, majorities say they have seen or heard a lot of ads on behalf of both Republicans (57%) and Democrats (53%).

Campaign outreach has intensified over the last few weeks, as more voters report getting mail, and receiving both pre-recorded and live calls than they did two weeks ago. And compared with this point in the 2006 election, more voters are reporting contact over email (27% today, up from 14% then), in person (19%, up from 15%) and over the phone. In 2006, 50% reported receiving phone calls; today, 65% report receiving either an automated (60%) or a live call (31%).

In the last few weeks of the campaign, outreach has intensified for Republicans, Democrats and independents, but Republicans are more likely than other voters to report having received printed mail or pre-recorded telephone calls. While seven-in-ten Republicans (70%) say they have received robocalls about the election, that compares to substantially smaller majorities of both Democrats (56%) and independents (57%). And although 77% of Democrats and 78% of independents say they have received printed mail, 83% of Republicans have done so. There are no significant partisan differences in other forms of direct campaign contact.

Early Voting Increases

Roughly one-in-four (25%) likely voters say they have already voted. This is up from 18% in 2006.

Reflecting the variation in voting rules in different states, early voting intentions vary by region. As was the case in 2006, far more voters (45%) in the West than in other regions have already cast their ballots. A quarter (25%) of voters living in the South have already voted. Only 18% in the Midwest and 6% of in the Northeast have already cast their ballot.

There also are differences in early voting by age. Roughly a third (35%) of voters 65 and older have already voted, compared with 25% of those ages 50 to 64 and only 17% of voters under 50. In 2006, voters over 50 also were more likely to vote early.

There are no differences in early voting by gender or party. But nearly a quarter (24%) of non-Hispanic whites have already voted, compared with 15% of African Americans.

As the midterm elections approach, there is every indication that voter turnout will be as high as in 2006, but unlike four years ago, Republicans – not Democrats – are now more engaged and enthusiastic about casting a ballot. The prospects for a GOP turnout advantage on Election Day are almost as favorable in the new Pew Research Center survey as they have been in all previous polls throughout the campaign.

The new survey does show some signs of the Democrats awakening. A growing number of Democratic voters say they have given a lot of thought to the coming elections and more say they have been closely following campaign news. However, Republican engagement continues at record levels, dwarfing even improved Democratic showings on these indicators.

Consequently, a considerably greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats still fall into the likely voter category. Moreover, the new survey shows that Democrats have lost ground among all voters: Currently, 46% of registered voters favor the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 42% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. In early September, 44% backed the Republican while 47% supported the Democratic candidate.

When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%. In early September, Republicans held a seven-point lead among likely voters (50% to 43%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 13-18 among 1,797 registered voters, including 1,354 likely voters, finds more ominous signs for Democrats. First, the growing popularity of early voting means that Democrats have less time to make up ground. The survey finds that about a quarter (27%) of voters nationally, including 52% of voters in the West, say they plan to vote before Election Day or have already voted. Republicans (29%) and Democrats (28%) are equally likely to say they plan to vote early or have already voted. At a comparable point in the 2006 midterm, 18% said they would be early voters.

Second, while the parties’ voter mobilization efforts are well underway at this stage of the campaign, there is no indication that Democrats are making more headway on these efforts than are Republicans.

Overall, voter outreach by the candidates and political groups now outpaces levels seen in October 2006. Currently, 59% say they have been reached by phone (either through a pre-recorded or live call) by candidates or political groups; four years ago, 41% said they had been reached over the phone. About a quarter of voters (26%) report receiving email from candidates or political groups; 16% said they had been contacted by email in October 2006. Nearly one-in-five (18%) say they have been visited at home by someone talking about the elections, which is up slightly from 2006 (14%).

In the new survey, 67% of Republicans say they have received live or recorded calls, compared with 54% of Democrats. In 2006, somewhat more Democrats (45%) than Republicans (37%) said they had been reached by phone. Republicans and Democrats are about equally likely to have been reached by email or through a personal visit at their home.

Campaign Ads Pervasive

Nearly nine-in-ten voters (88%) say they have seen or heard campaign commercials, and a majority (56%) say they have seen a lot of ads. In competitive House districts across the country, fully 67% say they have seen or heard a lot of campaign commercials.

And the tone of the campaign – on both sides – is negative. By greater than two-to-one (58% to 26%), voters say Republican candidates in their state have spent more time attacking Democrats than explaining what they would do if elected. Voters offer a similar assessment of Democratic candidates: 56% say they spend more of their time attacking Republicans, 26% say they have been explaining their proposals.

Voters are divided as to whether it is important to know who paid for campaign ads – 49% say it is important while 50% say it does not matter much. And for the most part, they say they have no difficulty determining who is paying for campaign ads. More than half (55%) say it easy to tell who paid for the ads while 32% say it is difficult.

The survey finds that levels of voter participation in the midterm campaign are on par with 2006. However, significantly more Republicans report contributing money to candidates than did so four years ago (18% vs. 11%). And more conservative Republicans (21%) say they have donated to a candidate this year than gave to any of the presidential candidates in 2008 (13%).

Overall, Democrats are about as likely to say they have donated money to a candidate as did so in 2006 (15% now, 13% then). But far fewer liberal Democrats say they have donated than gave to a presidential candidate in 2008 (20% now vs. 34% then).

Only about one-in-ten voters (11%) say they have attended a campaign event this year. But that figure rises to 17% among voters who say they agree with the Tea Party. Tea Party supporters are more likely than either Republicans (12%) or Democrats (9%) to say they have attended an event. And nearly three-in-ten (28%) of those who agree with the Tea Party say they have visited a candidate’s website or followed a candidate online, compared with 19% of registered voters generally.

Campaign Engagement

In the new survey, 55% of voters say they have given a lot of thought to the election, which is about the same as in October 2006 (54%), but much higher than levels in the three previous midterms.

Compared with 2006, more Republican voters report giving a lot of thought to the election (64% now vs. 50% then). The reverse is true among Democrats: 49% now say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with 59% at about this point in the 2006 campaign. At the high end of the engagement spectrum are those who agree with the Tea Party movement, 80% of whom have given a lot of thought to the coming election.

Only a third (33%) of voters under age 30 have given a lot of thought to the campaign, which is comparable to 2006 and significantly less than among voters 30 and older (59%). This is the typical pattern for young people in midterms, and very much unlike their high level of engagement in the 2008 presidential campaign.

Reactions to Victory…or Defeat

While there are substantial differences between Republican and Democratic voters in overall engagement and enthusiasm at this point, both groups offer remarkably similar reactions to the possibility of their party winning – or losing – this November. When asked to describe in a word how they will feel if the Republican Party wins a majority in the House after the elections are over, Republican voters say they will feel hopeful, happy, relieved, and good. For the most part, these are the same kinds of words that Democrats volunteer to describe how they will feel if their party keeps its majority after the elections are over. One noticeable difference is that more Republicans than Democrats say the word hopeful best captures their feeling if their party has a majority after Election Day.

Reactions to defeat are also similar across party lines. By far, disappointed is the most common reaction each side expresses to the possibility of not winning a House majority this fall. A number of voters – on both sides – also say they will feel sad or bad. The words disgusted and depressed come up more frequently among Republican voters than among Democratic voters. Relatively few voters on either side express extreme reactions, such as devastated, scared or fearful. And, while it has been a common catchphrase in this election cycle, virtually no voters – Republican or Democratic – used the word angry to describe their reaction to the possibility that the other party will have the majority when this election is over.

Other Important Findings

•The Republicans’ advantage in 2010 is largely being driven by a swing in preferences among independent voters. Currently, likely independent voters favor the Republican candidate by 19 points (49% Republican vs. 30% Democrat). In November 2006, Democrats held a seven-point lead among likely independent voters.

•Anti-incumbent sentiment has remained high all year, and is substantially greater than in 2006, 2002 and 1998 and on par with levels in 1994.

•President Obama’s approval ratings among the public remain unchanged from early September; currently, 46% approve, while 45% disapprove. About as many voters say they think of their vote as a vote against Obama as a vote for him (30% vs. 27%). Four years ago, President Bush was more of a negative factor; just 20% said they were voting for him and 37% against him.

•Republicans hold a 12-point edge among likely voters in the most competitive districts in the nation, and have a bigger lead in safe Republican districts (27 points) than Democrats have in safe Democratic districts (10 points).

•Some signs of growing campaign interest among Democrats is consistent with the pattern in past midterm elections. Democratic engagement has increased as Election Day approached in every midterm since 1994, except in 2006 when Republican engagement surged in the campaign’s closing weeks.

In the upcoming midterm elections, two factors have emerged as major potential negatives for candidates: Fully 46% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported government loans to banks during the financial crisis two years ago, while nearly as many (42%) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate backed by Sarah Palin.

Far smaller percentages say they would be more likely to vote for candidates who had supported the major loans to financial institutions (13%) or had Palin campaign for them (15%). These evaluations have changed little since August.

By contrast, bringing home federal dollars continues to be viewed as a potential asset for a congressional candidate. About half (53%) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who has a record of bringing government projects and money to their districts. Just 11% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who brought home federal money and projects.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted September 30-October 3 among 1,002 adults, finds further indications of anti-incumbent sentiment in this election year. About a quarter (26%) say they would be less likely to vote for an incumbent running for reelection while only about half as many (12%) say they would be more likely to support an incumbent; still, about half (53%) say this would make no difference in their vote either way.

The public continues to express more mixed views of other candidate traits and characteristics. About a third (32%) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who is a supporter of the Tea Party movement, while 21% say they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate. And a third (33%) say they would be less likely, rather than more likely (24%), to favor a candidate for whom Barack Obama campaigns.

Americans are split over whether they are more likely to vote for candidates who supported the health care law enacted earlier this year; 35% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation, while 36% say they would be more likely.

And the survey finds there is limited benefit to being a candidate who has never held elective office. About two-in-ten (21%) say this would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 27% say less likely and nearly half (47%) say it would make no difference.

Divisions over Campaign Appearances by Obama, Palin

Just as in August, Republicans, Democrats and independents differ considerably about the impact of campaign appearances by Sarah Palin or Barack Obama – as well as a candidate’s affiliation with the Tea Party movement.

Nearly four-in-ten Republicans (38%) say campaign support from Palin would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, but 45% say it would make no difference. Just 12% say this would make them less likely to support a candidate.

Two-thirds of Democrats (67%) say a Palin appearance would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, up from 58% in August. By about four-to-one, more independents say Palin’s support would make them less likely to vote for a candidate than say it would make them more likely to do so (43% less likely, 11% more likely); 44% of independents say it would make no difference.

About half of Democrats (49%) say Obama’s campaign help would make them more likely to vote for a congressional candidate while just 10% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate (40% say it would make no difference). By contrast, Republicans view an Obama campaign stop as a considerable liability: 72% of Republicans say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate if Barack Obama campaigns on his or her behalf. This is up from 57% in early August.

Among independents, 44% say that Obama campaigning for a candidate would make no difference to their vote; 32% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate while just 20% say that it would make them more likely to support that candidate.

Support for the Tea Party is, on balance, viewed more positively by Republicans and more negatively by Democrats, while independents are divided. About four-in-ten Republicans (42%) say a candidate’s support for the Tea Party movement would make them more likely to vote for that candidate; just 9% say the Tea Party affiliation would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (39% say it would make no difference). Among conservative Republicans, a 54% majority say they are more likely to vote for a Tea Party supporter.

More than half of Democrats (54%) say Tea Party affiliation would make them less likely to vote for a candidate with just 8% saying it would make them more likely to do so. A plurality of independents (43%) say Tea Party support would make no difference in their vote, while 22% say this would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 29% say it would make them less likely to do so.

Continuing Divides Over Contentious Votes

While partisans differ considerably in how they view the impact of a candidate’s support for the health care overhaul on their votes this fall, independents are more divided. Among Republicans, 72% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the health care law enacted earlier this year; 15% say this will make no difference and 9% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation. Two-thirds of Democrats (67%), meanwhile, say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation, just 11% say less likely and 20% say this will make no difference. Among independents, about three-in-ten (29%) say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the health care bill, while 37% say they are less likely to support that candidate, 31% say this issue will make no difference in their vote.

Majorities of Republicans (64%) and independents (52%) say they are less likely to vote for candidates who supported the major government loans made to banks in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Among Democrats, 31% say they are less likely to vote for candidates who supported the bank bailouts, while 21% say they are more likely to support these candidates; 44% say this will make no difference.

Impact of Incumbency, New Faces

Both Republicans and independents are divided about whether being new to electoral politics is an advantage or a disadvantage to congressional candidates this year; 26% of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for someone who has never held elective office, while about the same number (29%) say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who has never held elective office; 41% say this would not make a difference in their vote. Independents are similarly split (25% more likely, 21% less likely, 49% no difference).

While the plurality of Democrats (47%) say relative inexperience with electoral politics would not make a difference in their vote, by a ratio of more than two-to-one Democrats see relative newness as a hindrance rather than a help to candidates (35% less likely, 15% more likely).

Looking at the impact of incumbency, 37% of Republicans and 30% of independents say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who is an incumbent seeking re-election. Just 13% of Democrats agree. More than six-in-ten Democrats (63%) say incumbency will make no difference in their vote, compared with 44% of Republicans and 52% of independents.

Few Republicans (10%), Democrats (17%) or independents (11%) say they are more likely to vote
for a candidate because of incumbency.

More Continue to Say Earmarks a Benefit

By ratios of at least two-to-one, more Republicans, Democrats and independents say they are more likely, rather than less likely to vote for a candidate with a record of bringing government projects and money to their districts. About two-thirds of Democrats (68%) say they are more likely to vote for candidates with records of earmarking; 42% of Republicans and 51% of independents say the same. Relatively small numbers of each group say this would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (19% of Republicans, 14% of independents and 3% of Democrats.)

MOST SEE WASHINGTON DOMINATED BY PARTISAN CONFLICT

One month before the midterm elections, Americans offer harsh judgments on Republicans and Democrats in Washington with roughly three-quarters saying partisans have been bickering more than usual and approval ratings for leaders of both parties in Congress matching long-time lows.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted September 30-October 3 among 1,002 adults, finds that 77% say that Republicans and Democrats in Washington have been bickering and opposing one another more than usual. Just 8% say they have been working together more.

The percentage saying Republicans and Democrats have been bickering more than usual tops the 72% that said this in October 1995, when partisan fighting over the federal budget eventually lead to government shutdown. At that point, 21% said the parties were working together.

The public’s perceptions have worsened significantly since early last year. In January 2009, when asked about the prospect for bipartisanship in the coming year, fully 50% said they expected Republicans and Democrats to work together more while 39% said they expected increased partisan bickering. But by April 2009, the public was already gloomy about the state of partisan relations: just 25% said the parties were working together more than usual, while 53% said they were bickering and opposing one another more. Since then, assessments have worsened. Only about a third as many people now see the two parties cooperating as did so then.

There is widespread partisan agreement that Republicans and Democrats in Washington have been fighting more than usual. Currently, nearly equal percentages of Republicans (80%), Democrats (80%) and independents (78%) say that partisans in Washington are bickering and opposing one another more than usual.

Lower Ratings for Leaders of Both Parties in Congress

Job approval ratings for both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress are down slightly from mid-summer. Though Republicans may be poised for major gains in the House and Senate in the midterm elections, just 24% of the public approves of the job being done by the party’s leaders in Congress.

That is down from 33% in July, and equals a low measured at about the same time last year. Disapproval stands at 60%, matching the number from one year ago. Shortly after Barack Obama took office in 2009, approval of Republican leaders stood at 34%.

Job performance ratings for Democratic leaders also have slipped since the start of the Obama administration (from 48% approval in February 2009 to 30% currently). In July, that rating stood at 35%. Still, going into the campaign’s final weeks Democrats’ approval ratings are modestly higher than the ratings for Republican leaders.

About six-in-ten Democrats (62%) and Republicans (57%) say they approve of their own party’s leaders, while few independents approve of either group. There is little change since July in the percentage of Republicans who approve of their leaders (60% then), but fewer Democrats than in July approve of their party’s leaders in Congress (74% in July vs. 62% now).

Currently, just 19% of independents say they approve of Republican leaders’ performance and 21% say they approve of Democratic leaders’ performance. In July, 26% of independents approved of the GOP leaders and 25% approved of Democratic leaders.

Nine-in-ten Republicans say they disapprove of the job being done by Democratic leaders in Congress, while 82% of Democrats disapprove of the job being done by GOP leaders. Among independents, 64% give a negative performance rating to the GOP leaders, while 60% disapprove of the job being done by Democratic leaders.

Views of Congressional Accomplishments

Public views of Congress’ accomplishments have changed little since June. Today, 36% say Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses, 37% say it has accomplished about as much and 20% say it has accomplished more.

The 36% of Americans who now say Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses is comparable to the proportions in both October 1994 (36%) and October 2006 (39%), when assessments of congressional accomplishments were relatively negative. However, the percentage of Americans who now say Congress has accomplished more than other recent Congresses (20%) is also relatively high compared to other past midterm cycles. Significantly more now say Congress has accomplished more than previous Congresses than did so in the fall of 1994 (10%), 2002 (11%) or 2006 (6%); in 1998, 24% said this.

Views of Congressional accomplishments differ considerably by party. A majority of Republicans (54%) say Congress has accomplished less than usual, 31% say its accomplishments are on par with other recent years, while just 9% say this Congress has accomplished more than most. By contrast, Democrats are more divided: 37% say Congress has accomplished about the same amount compared to other recent
Congresses, 33% say it has accomplished more than most, and just 24% say it has accomplished less than most.

In 2006, when Republicans controlled Congress, partisan assessments were the reverse; Democrats were substantially more likely than Republicans to say Congress had accomplished less than usual.

Republicans and Democrats also differ in their reasons for saying that Congress has accomplished less than usual. By about two-to-one, Republicans who think Congress has accomplished less say this is more because they think Congress has done the wrong things than because it has not done enough (36% vs. 15%). By contrast, most Democrats who say this Congress has accomplished less than usual say it is more because it has not done enough (18%) rather than because it has done the wrong things (5%).

Independents are about equally likely to say that Congress has accomplished less than usual (38%) as to say congressional accomplishments are about the same as usual (40%); 18% say Congress has accomplished more than usual. Those who say Congress has accomplished less are divided in their assessment of why (19% of independents say it is because Congress has done the wrong things, 16% say it is because Congress has not done enough).