Like Mitt Romney, Barack Obama was not the highlight of his party’s convention. Among those who watched at least a little coverage of the Democratic convention, 29% say the highlight was Bill Clinton’s speech, while 16% name Obama’s speech as the highlight. About as many (15%) say that first lady Michelle Obama’s speech was the highlight of the convention.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 7-9, 2012 among 1,012 adults nationwide, finds that while Obama’s speech was not the highlight of the convention, it is evaluated more positively than Romney’s convention address. Six-in-ten (60%) of those who watched at least a little convention coverage rate Obama’s speech as excellent or good; that compares with 53% of GOP convention watchers who rated Romney’s speech positively.

However, Obama’s speech was not viewed nearly as positively as his address at the convention four years ago: 73% said that speech was excellent or good. In 2008, 42% of convention watchers rated Obama’s speech as excellent, compared with 29% who rate it that highly today.

While Obama’s speech was overshadowed by Clinton’s, Romney shared the spotlight with actor Clint Eastwood. About as many said Eastwood’s speech was the highlight of the GOP convention as mentioned Romney’s speech. (For more, see “RNC Highlights: Romney Shares Top Billing with Eastwood,” Sept. 5, 2012.)

Views of Obama: Before and After

Overall views of Obama, like opinions about Romney, have improved modestly in the wake of his party’s convention. In the new survey, 26% say their opinion of Obama has become more favorable in the past few days, while 20% say their opinion has become less favorable. Nearly half (48%) say their view of Obama has not changed.

In a survey conducted in late August, prior to the Charlotte convention, 16% said their opinion of Obama had become more favorable recently while 22% said it had become less favorable; 56% said it had not changed.

Recent opinions of Romney showed a similar positive shift after the GOP convention: The percentage saying they had come to have a more favorable view of Romney increased by seven points, from 18% before the Republican convention to 25% after it.

Overall, more Americans say they watched all or most of the Democratic convention than the Republican convention (22% vs. 17%); A third (33%) say they watched none of the coverage of the Democratic convention, compared with 40% who watched none of the coverage of the GOP convention.

Interest in this year’s Democratic convention is on par with interest in the party’s convention four years ago. In the 2008 post-convention survey, 22% said they watched all or most of the convention, the same percentage as in the current survey.

Among those who watched at least a little of the convention coverage, 60% rated Obama’s speech as excellent (29%) or good (31%), compared with 53% who viewed Romney’s speech as either excellent (21%) or good (32%).

Women, younger people and independents viewed Obama’s acceptance more positively than Romney’s. Among women who watched at least a little convention coverage, 62% said Obama’s speech was excellent or good, while 50% said the same about Romney’s speech. Fully 63% of those younger than 50 rated Obama’s speech positively, compared with 43% who said Romney’s speech was excellent or good.

And while partisans overwhelmingly view the speech of their nominee positively, more independents expressed positive opinions about Obama’s speech than Romney’s (57% vs. 46%).

Obama Overshadowed

Four years ago, Obama’s speech was the clear highlight of the Democratic party convention. Nearly four-in-ten (38%) of those who watched at least a little convention coverage said his speech was the highlight; Hillary Clinton’s speech was a distant second at 16%.

This year, however, Obama’s speech was overshadowed by Bill Clinton’s address: 29% say Clinton’s speech was the highlight, nearly twice the percentage citing Obama’s speech (16%).

More Democrats mentioned Clinton’s speech as the highlight than cited Obama’s address (36% vs. 24%). Independents also are more likely to say that Clinton’s speech was the convention highlight (29% vs. 15%).

As the country awaits the formal transfer of presidential power, Bill Clinton has never looked better to the American public, while his successor George W. Bush is receiving initial reviews that are more mixed, though still positive. The president leaves office with 61% of the public approving of the way he is handling the job, combined with a surprisingly lofty 64% favorability rating (up from 48% in May 2000). The favorability rating, a mixture of personal and performance evaluations, is all the more impressive because such judgments have never been Clinton’s strong suit. Unlike other recent presidents, Clinton’s ratings have often run below his job approval scores.

As historians and scholars render their judgments of Clinton’s legacy, the public is weighing in with a nuanced verdict. By a 60%-27% margin, people feel that, in the long run, Clinton’s accomplishments in office will outweigh his failures, even though 67% think he will be remembered for impeachment and the scandals, not for what he achieved. At the same time, evaluations of Hillary Clinton are on the upswing as she leaves the White House to become New York’s junior senator.

Opinions of President-elect Bush are notably less effusive, which may be at least partly attributable to the election’s contentious conclusion. A 50% plurality approves of the job he has done in explaining his policies and plans for the future. This contrasts to 62% who expressed that view of Clinton in a Pew Research Center survey in January 1993, and 65% who approved of George Bush Sr.’s policy explanations in a Gallup Poll twelve years ago.

Partisan hostility explains Bush’s lower ratings as only 29% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic approve of the job the president-elect has done in communicating his plans. In contrast, Republicans and independents who lean to the GOP were far more positive toward Clinton in 1993, when 43% approved of his initial policy presentations.

Bush gets somewhat higher grades for his cabinet selections (58% approval).[1.  The survey was fielded before Linda Chavez withdrew her name as Bush's nominee for Secretary of Labor.] While these ratings are lower than Clinton’s, they are comparable to his father’s and better than the ratings Ronald Reagan’s cabinet received in 1981. Further, the Pew survey, which was conducted among a national sample of 1,258 adults Jan. 3-7, found that relatively few people (21%) believe his cabinet picks and other high-level appointments are too conservative; half think they are about right ideologically. The selection of Colin Powell may have a lot to do with this, as 33% were able to identify the retired general as a member of the new cabinet — a much higher number than could recall the name of any Clinton nominee in 1993.

By a 56% to 29% margin, Americans think it is a good thing that many of Bush’s top advisors worked in his father’s administration. In that regard only 12% think that Dick Cheney is playing too large a role in the new administration. Even at this early stage, 31% think Cheney will be a successful vice president — a somewhat higher number than those who think Bush will be a successful president.

Flagging economic optimism may be one of the first problems confronting the new administration. There has been a significant increase in the number of Americans who expect to be worse off financially over the course of the year: 27% express that view now, compared to about 10% in January 1999. In fact, the economic expectations voiced in the current survey are the least positive on this measure since 1992, when Clinton was campaigning for office on a promise to jump-start the economy. Similarly, public interest in stories about the economy and financial conditions is as high as it has been since 1994, when many people still believed the economy was in a recession.

Not surprisingly, the state of the economy has gained importance in the eyes of the public. More than eight-in-ten (81%) rate keeping the economy strong as the leading priority for the president and Congress. While partisan divisions persist in the wake of the election, Republicans, Democrats and independents agree that maintaining strong economic growth should be Washington’s first order of business.

Partisan tensions are apparent in public perceptions of which groups will thrive and which ones will lose ground in the Bush years. Majorities think that business corporations, the military and Christian conservatives will gain in influence, while pluralities think feminists, poor people, environmentalists, and union leaders will wane in influence. Already, Bush himself is seen as tilting to the right; by 48%-37%, the public thinks the new president is listening more to the conservatives than the moderates in his party.

Priorities for ’01

Perhaps not surprisingly, given the public’s growing financial concerns, keeping the economy strong has overtaken education as the public’s leading policy priority. Improving education, which led the list of priorities last year, is now second.

As Bush prepares to begin his presidency, there are notable areas of bipartisan agreement, although vast differences continue to divide the parties. Aside from the economy, Republicans, Democrats and independents all rate improving education, reducing crime, and securing Social Security and Medicare very highly. In addition, a strong consensus has emerged in favor of a middle-class tax cut, with better than six-in-ten in each group calling tax cuts a top priority.

But Republicans and Democrats are far apart on the importance of a wide range of issues, including protecting the environment, gun control, health care, strengthening the military and improving the nation’s moral climate. Almost three-quarters of Democrats and nearly as many independents (68%) rate the environment as a top priority; less than half of Republicans (45%) agree. Democrats are also far more likely than Republicans to regard providing insurance for the uninsured and toughening gun control laws as major priorities.

Conversely, Republicans attach greater importance to building up the military and dealing with the nation’s moral breakdown. Better than six-in-ten Republicans see those issues as leading priorities, compared to fewer than half of Democrats and independents. Republicans are also more likely than Democrats to view missile defense as a top priority; still, only about half (49%) of Republicans see this as very important.

There also is a gender gap over the nation’s priorities, although men and women alike place the economy and education at the top of the list. Women are far more likely to rate insuring the uninsured (68% vs. 53% of men), improving the job situation (65% vs. 53%) and helping the poor and needy (69% vs. 58%) as top priorities. Strengthening the armed forces ranks as more important for men than it does for women (53%-42%).

Foreword

In 1987, we embarked on an ambitious project to better understand the nature of American politics. We identified a broad range of beliefs and values that underlie common political labels and that ultimately drive political action. A voter typology emerged from this effort which classifies the electorate into distinct groupings, defined by their political, social, economic, and religious beliefs. Five years ago, we updated our study, finding a dramatically changed political landscape.

Today, we release version 3.0. Once again, we have found evidence of critical shifts in the electorate since 1994. The strong economy of the late 1990s has produced greater financial security and higher levels of satisfaction with the state of the nation. Reflecting this new public optimism, distrust of government and elected officials is down, and Americans express more tolerance for outsiders and a greater willingness to help the poor.

Our new study is based on three comprehensive surveys of nearly 5,000 Americans nationwide. This voter typology provides new insights into the nature of the electorate, the parties, and American politics as we approach the 2000 elections.

As with each new voter typology, we are able to measure long-term changes in the electorate by drawing on more than ten years of the Center’s comprehensive surveys of the American public. Since 1996, this work has been generously supported by the Pew Charitable Trusts. Times Mirror sponsored our work between 1987 and 1995. We are grateful for the support that has made these extensive studies possible.

Andrew Kohut
Director
Pew Research Center for The People & The Press

Retro-Politics

The new politics of the American people looks more like the old politics than anything the Center has observed in its 12 years of surveying the underlying political, social and economic attitudes of the electorate. The mood, party divisions and fault lines of the public are more traditional than what we found in 1987 at the end of the Reagan era or in 1994 on the eve of “the Gingrich revolution,” when the benchmark studies in this series were conducted. The current polling, based on nearly 5,000 interviews with national samples of the voting age population, identifies the following back-to-the-future trends.

The middle of the electorate is not dominated by angry, economically stressed voters whose allegiances are up for grabs, as we found in 1994. Rather the most important swing constituency is among the least angry, most moderate and most financially content segment of the voting public.

The Republican Party is no longer principally bifurcated between laissez faire economic conservatives on the one hand and populist social conservatives on the other, as we first described it in 1987. A clear well-defined, moderate wing of the party emerges.

Indeed, centrism, so characteristic of post-war American politics, is back. More moderation is not only apparent among Independents, but also evident on the right and on the left. Fewer Americans are highly critical of government. Political cynicism, while extensive, has lost some of its edge, and clearly voters are less interested in outsiders and political newcomers than they were earlier in the decade.

Democratic chances to retain control of the White House are once again threatened from within by social conservatives, who have rejected their party’s standard-bearer to some extent in every Democratic defeat since 1968. In this cycle, the issue for them is not principally ideological, but rather a hangover from the scandals of the Clinton administration.

Thanks to the Gingrich legacy, once again the Democratic Party has more adherents than the GOP. The Democrats have an even bigger image advantage over the Republicans owing to public hostility over impeachment. However, as has been the case in the past, these advantages may mean much more to congressional politics than to which party wins the presidency.

The Center’s political typology, which sorts voters into homogeneous groups based on political beliefs, party affiliation and voter participation, found striking parallels on both ends of the political spectrum. The new voter groupings on the right and the left are characterized by significant political centrism, as well as populism, at the expense of ideological consistency.

Many Americans continue to use the liberal and conservative labels, but only two segments of the electorate express coherent ideological points of view — Staunch Conservatives are consistently conservative on economic, social and international issues, while on balance, Liberal Democrats take the opposite position on each dimension.

Moderate Republicans and New Democrats are about as numerous as Conservatives and Liberals and hold much more centrist views. Moderate Republicans are less critical of government, more interventionist, more environmentalist, more tolerant, and less pro-business than Staunch Conservatives. They are also less loyal to the GOP. Although 98% Republican, 44% of them approve of Bill Clinton’s job performance.

New Democrats have less compassion than others in their party for the disadvantaged and are less critical of business. Yet like most Democrats, they express support for government and are more socially tolerant than the conservative wing of the Democratic Party. Reflecting their moderate views, fully half would consider voting for George W. Bush.

Populist Republicans and their Democratic counterpart, Socially Conservative Democrats, have mixed ideological values and have also contributed significantly to the crossover support for Clinton and now Bush, respectively. Populist Republicans are highly religious and socially conservative. But they have more moderate opinions about government and less favorable opinions of business corporations than Staunch Conservatives. Nearly one-third approve of Clinton’s job performance, and barely half give a good grade to the GOP’s congressional leadership.

On the Democratic side, Social Conservatives hold similar opinions about freedom of expression, homosexuality and immigrants. However, they have much stronger ties to unions, are more financially satisfied and show a penchant for partisan defection. Like their Reagan Democrat predecessors, 55% say there is at least some chance they would vote for Bush, and 29% backed him over Al Gore when this poll was first taken.

While the defections of Populist Republicans or Democrats might prove decisive in a close election, the most votes up for grabs are in the middle of the electorate. The two politically independent groups, one upbeat in its views and the other downbeat, contain many former Ross Perot voters who look at the political scene differently than most Democrats and Republicans.

New Prosperity Independents are moderate, young to middle-aged voters whose affluence, Internet savvy and stock market investments lead them to strongly endorse the status quo. But while 55% of this group, which strongly favors both handgun control and a capital gains reduction, approve of Clinton, just 24% are inclined to vote for Gore.

Disaffecteds, who are at the opposite end of the socioeconomic spectrum and are alienated and cynical rather than confident and upbeat, hold many similar political views. But, they are less important as voters because of their limited participation. In contrast, the Partisan Poor, who are also financially stressed, vote much more regularly. This most racially mixed bloc looks to government for solutions to its problems and remains strongly loyal to the Democratic Party. This is the only voting bloc in the country that wishes Clinton could run for a third term.

Americans’ Attitudes Mellow

The moderating trend in these political groupings reflects changes in underlying attitudes that the Center has monitored since 1987.¹ The current national survey finds somewhat less political cynicism and fewer people highly critical of government than in the past, and especially in comparison to 1994 when the Center developed its last version of the typology. For example, fewer Americans now think they don’t have any say in what the government does, and a smaller percentage believe that things run by the government are usually inefficient and wasteful.

At the same time, the polling shows more compassion toward the poor and less hostility toward immigrants. A greater percentage in this survey than in the recent past think the government should do more to help needy people, and fewer express strong support for tightening our borders to further restrict immigration. Both of these trends may reflect the increased economic satisfaction and diminished financial pressure registered in this year’s survey. Gains in economic contentment have been greatest among upper income groups, while people in the lowest income category report less financial pressure but no more financial satisfaction than in the mid-1990s. Unexpectedly, despite these trends, Americans report no greater satisfaction with their wages than in the recent past. In fact, middle-income people are less satisfied than they were in 1994.

A diminished appetite for political change is apparent, along with the moderating political attitudes we observed. The percentage of respondents who say that Washington needs new faces is lower than in the mid-1990s: Today 49% want new faces, down from 60% in 1994. The percentage saying it’s time for current leaders to step aside has fallen somewhat as well (73% today vs. 79% in 1994). However, the survey also found less interest in national affairs and Washington politics than did previous polls in this series.

No Big Issue, But a Moral Undertone

As in other surveys, no overarching issue emerges as the electorate’s number one priority. If there is one theme in public concerns, however, it is a worry about the nation’s moral health. This is voiced in a variety of ways by one-third of respondents in open-ended questioning. Respondents mention family values, teen violence, crime, and other moral shortcomings. But, when these same people are asked about priorities, moral concerns get highest priority only from Staunch Conservatives and Populist Republicans. Improving education is the top priority of the pivotal New Prosperity Independents as well as Liberal Democrats, while the more conservative Democratic groups place more emphasis on dealing with entitlements.

Surprisingly, Republican groups are more divided on the specific policy questions than are Democrats. Staunch Conservatives express opposition to a minimum wage hike, HMO reform and gun control, whereas Populists and Moderates back these proposals. Foreign policy issues also divide the GOP. Fully 69% of Staunch Conservatives oppose American involvement in Bosnia and Kosovo, while 69% of Moderates back it and Populists lean against it. Democrats are divided on abortion. Socially Conservative Democrats and the Partisan Poor strongly favor parental consent; Liberal Democrats are evenly divided on this issue.

“Bush Coalition” Familiar

Bush’s patterns of support are reminiscent of winning GOP coalitions in the recent past. The Texas governor’s candidacy has very strong backing from all three core GOP groups: Staunch Conservatives, Populists and Moderates. He also gets the support of Independent voters at both ends of the economic spectrum. Affluent New Prosperity Independents strongly support him, and even Disaffected Independents lean to Bush.

Like Ronald Reagan before him and his father in 1988, George W. also has considerable appeal to the conservative wing of the Democratic Party — especially the Social Conservatives. Liberal Democrats and the Partisan Poor give Gore the most early support, but their enthusiasm is more muted than that shown by core Republicans for Bush. This survey finds that Clinton fatigue is more of a factor in the potential defections of Social Conservatives than for other Democratic groups. However Gore’s own leadership image is relatively weak among most Democrats, and very weak among Independents.

Former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley tested as well against Bush as Gore did when this poll was taken, even though many voters may still know little about him. Bradley has more appeal to Independent voters, especially affluent New Prosperity Independents, and he has more crossover appeal to Republicans.

Bush is the prohibitive favorite for the nomination among all GOP groups, and a majority in every typology group except Liberal Democrats and the Partisan Poor would at least consider voting for the Texas governor next November. In contrast, it is mostly Staunch Conservatives, Moderate Republicans and New Prosperity Independents who would consider voting for Steve Forbes. John McCain appeals to two groups who agree on little else, Staunch Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Among voters who have heard of him, Gary Bauer gets the most consideration from Populist Republicans, but even among this receptive group relatively few know of him.

The Reform Party’s Patrick Buchanan and Minnesota Governor Jesse Ventura are known to more than 80% of voters, but less than 30% say there is some chance they would cast a ballot for either of them. The former pundit and speech writer has somewhat greater appeal among Staunch Conservatives, while Independent Disaffecteds are a little more drawn to the former pro wrestler. However, both are more appealing to young voters than older people.

The poll finds voters looking for the same personal qualities in a president as they did four years ago: good judgment in a crisis, high ethical standards and compassion. But more now say that a president should serve as a role model to help keep families together and improve the nation’s moral health. These opinions are shared for the most part by all voter groups, but Republicans, especially Staunch Conservatives and Populist Republicans, place more emphasis than Democrats on the president as a role model. Only Staunch Conservatives give short shrift to compassion in a president.

Democratic Edge in Congressional Elections

Although Democrats are potentially less unified than Republicans with regard to presidential voting intentions, they seem more inclined to get behind their party’s congressional candidates than do Republican groups. For example, Moderate Republicans and Populist Republicans do not match Staunch Conservatives in their support for their party’s congressional candidates.

This contributes to the Democratic Party’s 49% to 43% lead in the congressional ballot test in this survey. However, the GOP’s losses in adherents and image weakness in recent years contribute as well. Collations of national Pew Research Center surveys of more than 10,000 respondents per year over the decade find affiliation with the GOP at 27% in 1998 and 1999, down from 30% in 1994 and 32% in 1995. Democratic affiliation has increased only marginally during that period. However, more Americans hold a favorable opinion of the party than did in 1994 (59% vs. 50%) while many fewer have a positive opinion of the GOP over that same period (53% vs. 67%). Although the Republican Party’s favorability ratings have rebounded somewhat from backlash against it for pushing impeachment, voters continue to express more confidence in the Democrats on most issues, save morality and taxes.

These trends notwithstanding, since 1990 increased majorities of both Republicans and Democrats say that they sometimes vote for the other party.

Other Findings:

The survey contains one cautionary note about George W. Bush’s strong showing in the polls, when it finds that 70% of all voters questioned think that he will be elected president in November. This is nearly identical to the percentage who felt that way about his father in the fall of 1991!

Support for a third party has been up and down in Center surveys, and the new polling finds a 54% majority saying that the country needs a third major political party.

The falloff in Republican Party affiliation is most dramatic among young Americans. Young men have migrated toward the Democratic Party while young women have become more independent.

HMO reform has become a bipartisan issue. Republican support has increased 14 percentage points in the last year, from 36% in 1998 to the current 50%. Support among Independents has increased from 44% to 65% this year. Among Democrats, the percentage has gone from 63% to 73%.

These are the results of three nationwide Pew Research Center surveys conducted over the last four months. The main typology survey of 3,973 adults was conducted July 14 – September 9, 1999, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Additionally, a sample of 1,411 adults who were interviewed for the main survey were re-interviewed during a second poll conducted October 7 – 11, 1999. Finally, the results for the Center’s longstanding political values measures are based on a survey of 985 adults conducted September 28 – October 10, 1999.

A split sample experiment by the Pew Research Center tested the impact of this phrase. Half of an April 15-18, 1999 sample divided evenly (47% favor and 48% opposed) when asked about sending ground troops “if air strikes do not stop Serbian attacks there.” When the other half sample was asked the same question reinforced with the phrase “to try to end the conflict,” it found a 51%-42% majority favoring the proposal.

Differences are even more dramatic when the public is asked about the use of ground troops as “peacekeepers,” rather than peace makers. A Los Angeles Times poll found 68% of the public favoring the use of ground troops once peace is achieved.

When Americans are asked about the ongoing air campaign — a real rather than hypothetical issue — there is generally majority support, with some growth in support during the first few weeks of the air campaign. Majorities have consistently supported the air strikes, compared to the 29% to 56% variation in support for ground troops.

Early Ads and The Clinton Comeback

Issue advertising that began 17 months before the 1996 presidential election is said to have revolutionized modern campaigning. But the ads did not upend the 1996 contest. An analysis of presidential approval ratings before and after the ad campaign in targeted and non-targeted states reveals little evidence that the ads had much impact on public opinion.

According to news accounts of the 1996 presidential campaign, the Clinton campaign committee and the Democratic National Committee funded an early television advertising campaign designed to promote the Democratic legislative agenda and enhance President Clinton’s reelection prospects. The issue advertising began in late June 1995 and continued up to Election Day in 1996.(1) The ads were targeted in states considered key in the 1996 presidential campaign.(2)

During the year prior to the issue advertising, public approval of Clinton in both targeted and non-targeted states averaged 44%. In the year following the start of the issue advertising, Clinton’s job approval was slightly higher in targeted states, with an average of 52% compared to 48% in non-targeted states — a four percentage point improvement with the issue advertising.

The trend toward higher job approval in targeted states, however, was evident prior to the start of the advertising — by four points in April 1995 and five points in June 1995. Moreover, in polls conducted during the ad campaign, the president’s job approval rating increased by 10 percentage points in targeted states (from 46% to 56%) and 11 percentage points in non-targeted states (40% to 51%).

Endnotes

1. John King, Associated Press, June 23, 1995; Dick Morris, The Guardian, January 15, 1997

2. Annenberg Public Policy Center, Issue Advocacy Advertising During the 1996 Campaign. Heavily targeted states include Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Personal image problems and fallout from Clinton administration scandals are contributing to Al Gore’s declining favorability ratings and his poor showing in early horse race polls. As the vice president has inched closer to the Democratic presidential nomination, his favorability ratings have fallen and he has slipped further behind GOP frontrunner George W. Bush in the horse race polls.

While general election polls taken at this point in the cycle are more often wrong than right (see page 5), Gore’s problems may be more enduring. Fewer Americans volunteer positive descriptions of Gore than did so just two years ago, and his favorability ratings are well below the 1987 ratings of Vice President Bush, who trailed the likely Democratic nominee at that time.

The patterns of response to questions about Gore may be more troublesome than the weak numbers themselves. Analysis of the latest Pew Research Center survey shows that attitudes toward Gore are more closely linked to Bill Clinton’s mixed personal ratings than to his strong job approval. The opposite pattern was observed for Bush and Reagan 12 years ago. The survey also finds that three-quarters of Americans say they are tired of the problems of the current administration — an attitude more closely tied to voter choice than are views of Gore’s likability or his sympathy for the problems of ordinary Americans.

Moreover, Gore’s support among women — especially the Independent women who played an important role in both of Clinton’s victories — is dramatically below Clinton’s in 1996.

These are the principal findings of a March 24-30, 1999 Pew Research Center survey of 1,786 adults.

Gore’s Favorability Dips

For the first time since the September 1997 allegations of wrongdoing in Gore’s fund raising activities, his favorability ratings slipped below 50% this month. Today, 47% of the public holds a favorable opinion of Gore; 43% say their view is unfavorable. This is down significantly from December 1998, when 58% viewed Gore favorably and 33% unfavorably.

The falloff in favorability is especially dramatic among Republican-oriented groups: men, the college-educated and those with incomes over $75,000 a year. This partisan pattern suggests that opinion about Gore is becoming more politicized as he is perceived more as a candidate than a vice president, but Gore is also losing support among Independents and those aged 50-64.

Most Democrats continue to hold favorable opinions of Gore (71%), although Clinton receives higher favorability ratings from his own party members (85%).

When asked to give their impression of Gore in a single word or phrase, fewer Americans now describe the vice president in positive terms than did so in recent years. In 1996, 32% described Gore positively compared to only 19% today. This month, the top response was “boring.” Nearly a quarter (23%) use other mocking words such as wimp, wooden or stiff. This represents an increase from 1997, when 16% used words that poked fun at the vice president. One-in-five (22%) describe Gore in neutral terms. Relatively few (15%) use more cutting negative words.

Gore Lags Despite Clinton Ratings

Gore continues to trail Republican Bush in a hypothetical match-up for the 2000 presidential election. In this poll, the Texas governor leads Gore by 54%-41%, a wider margin than in January, when Bush’s support was 50% and Gore’s 44%. Gore leads only among non-whites, senior citizens and urban dwellers. Bush runs strongest among white men, those making over $50,000, white evangelicals, and Independents.

In a Gore-Bush match-up, Clinton’s mixed favorability ratings are a stronger predictor of support for Gore than is Clinton’s job approval. In the spring of 1987, the relative importance of presidential job approval and favorability ratings differed. In a horse race poll pairing George Bush and Gary Hart, Reagan’s job approval ratings were more of a driving force than personal ratings of Reagan in predicting support for Bush. It is important to note that as Reagan’s approval ratings rebounded somewhat over the course of the 1988 campaign, support for Bush grew.

While Gore does benefit from Clinton’s robust job approval ratings, he is clearly being hurt by weariness with problems of the Clinton administration. An overwhelming majority (74%) of Americans agree with the statement, “I am tired of all the problems associated with the Clinton administration.” This view is held by 77% of Independents and 64% of Democrats. Among those who express fatigue, 60% say they would vote for Bush over Gore in a two-way 2000 match-up; only 35% pick Gore.¹

Most Americans like Gore better than Clinton, although the margin is not overwhelming. Half (52%) agree with the statement, “I like Al Gore better as a person than Bill Clinton.” One-third (35%) disagree.

While Americans may like Gore better than Clinton, they don’t see the vice president as more caring. Only 34% of the public agrees with the statement, “Al Gore cares more than Bill Clinton about people like me.” A narrow majority (50%) disagree.

Despite Clinton’s strong 62% job approval rating, few Americans wish he could run for a third term. Only 29% of the public would like to see four more years of Clinton; 69% would not.

Gore and Gender

The gender gap that helped fuel Clinton’s reelection in 1996 is helping Gore only at the margins this year. Women prefer Bush over Gore by a margin of 52%-42%. Men opt for Bush by an even wider 57%-40% margin. In January of 1996, Clinton led Dole among women by nearly 20 percentage points and ran slightly ahead among men.

Gore has an edge among women in his personal favorability rating. Half (50%) of women rate him favorably, compared to 44% of men. Men are more likely than women to give Gore an unfavorable rating — 49% vs. 38%, respectively. Nonetheless, in the horse race, Gore lags behind Bush among some key groups of women: whites, those aged 50-64, high-income women, and Independents.

The American people had a mixed reaction to events in Washington last week. They continue to support Bill Clinton and all but ignore his Senate impeachment trial, which 88% describe as providing little that is new or interesting. But by a 52%-34% margin they also reject Clinton’s surprise proposal to put some Social Security funds into the stock market.

If Social Security funds do go into the stock market, the public would prefer the Republican approach of allowing workers to invest their own contributions. A 52% majority thinks this would work better than having Social Security funds invested in the stock market by an independent government board. But this is about the only good news for the GOP in the Pew Research Center’s latest public opinion survey, conducted daily January 19-25, 1999 to gauge reaction to the State of the Union address and Senate impeachment trial.

Political support for the president has remained strong, the Senate trial notwithstanding. Clinton’s approval rating rose to 66% following his State of the Union Address, which was graded an A or B by 70% of those who saw the speech, despite reservations about elements of Clinton’s Social Security proposal. Fully 63% of the public thinks Clinton should not be removed from office. And most (67%) say that they don’t expect the Senate to vote him out. Even among Republicans, only 18% believe the Senate will oust Clinton.

A majority of Americans (53%) do not think the Senate should call witnesses to testify in the impeachment trial. Not surprisingly, rank and file Republicans are much more supportive than are Democrats (63% vs. 21%). Independents are more closely split on the issue (41% favor and 51% oppose).

History, But Ho Hum

Perceptions of too much partisanship along with firm public convictions about Clinton himself have led most Americans to tune out the trial. On average about 17% of Americans said they watched or listened to the live coverage on each day during the study period. The exception was Tuesday, January 19, the first day of the White House lawyers’ presentation, when fully 31% followed the live proceedings.

Most Americans found little of interest in the news about the proceedings each day, but as many as one in five said that they were annoyed or angered by something they had heard in the news about the trial. Relatively few (24%) said they had discussed the impeachment with family or friends.

When asked why they are not following the trial more closely, almost half (47%) say that they haven’t paid more attention because the trial will have no impact on their assessment of Clinton.

A substantial minority (41%) also say the partisan nature of the trial is a reason for tuning it out. Almost as many (36%) cite the improbability of Clinton’s actual conviction. Inattention to politics in general and the insignificance of removal for conditions in the country were less often given as reasons for neglecting news of the trial.

Fix Social Security

While most Americans are skittish about investing Social Security funds in the stock market, support for using the federal budget surplus to help stabilize Social Security and Medicare has risen substantially in the past year. Half (50%) now favor using the surplus to reform the entitlement programs, rather than for a tax cut, other domestic programs, or to help pay off the national debt. Last January, just 32% said Social Security and Medicare should get the surplus funds first, while as many (33%) favored spending the money on other domestic programs.

But the public rejects Clinton’s State of the Union proposal to invest some Social Security funds in the stock market by a 52%-34% margin. What’s more, the resistance to the proposal is bi-partisan: while Republicans oppose the idea 59%-29%, Democrats also reject it, 51%-33%. Opposition is also high among senior citizens and Americans who are nearing retirement age.

President Clinton’s impeachment trial has neither engaged the attention of the American public nor changed its mind about the continuance of his presidency. The public gives Clinton high marks for his job performance, expresses satisfaction with the state of the nation and registers even more contentment with their own lives than just two years ago. Most also say that Clinton’s upcoming State of the Union address is at least as important as past speeches: 51% as important, 27% more important.

Fewer than one-third of Americans are paying very close attention to the Senate proceedings and just 15% say they have watched all or a lot of the live coverage of the trial. Fully 69% say that the trial has not changed their opinion about whether the president should be removed from office or resign. A steady two-thirds of the public wants Clinton to remain in office. Just one-in-three say Clinton should be removed from office, and, in a separate question, even fewer say he should resign.

The public judges the Senate trial much the way it did the House proceedings. An overwhelming 76% say the Senate is mostly bickering, compared to 19% who say they are working together. When asked to compare the Senate and House proceedings, a 43% plurality see the level of partisanship as the same.

As in December, none of the major actors in the proceedings is given favorable marks. Congressional Republicans are given much lower ratings for their handling of the investigation (32% approve) than are Democrats (44% approve) or Bill Clinton (45% approve). The media too is rated poorly (35% approve). The one exception is Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist who gets a 50% approval ratings, but this may reflect his stature more than an appraisal of his performance. (Only 19% of Pew respondents named him as presiding over the trial, compared to 48% who identified Larry Flynt as the publisher paying for information about marital infidelity by members of Congress.)

A 55% majority of Americans think the president will get a fair trial. Despite the lack of interest in the Senate proceedings so far, the public is divided over whether parts of the trial should be conducted in closed session: 52% say the trial should be entirely open, 43% say it’s okay to close parts. Fewer Democrats than Republicans or Independents think the trial will be fair. All three groups are divided as to whether it should be entirely open.

High Marks for Clinton and the Nation

A full year of the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal has had little negative impact on how Americans judge the country or the president’s job performance and overall record. In fact, more people are satisfied (53%) with the way things are going in the country than was true in early 1998 before the scandal broke (46%). Further, as many Americans say Clinton’s accomplishments will outweigh his failures as said that about Ronald Reagan at a comparable time in his second term (50%-34% Clinton; 52%-38% Reagan).

The politics of presidential impeachment color Americans’ view of how things are going in the country today. Just 41% of those who think Clinton should be removed from office are satisfied with the state of the nation, compared to 60% of those who do not think Clinton should be removed.

Perhaps underpinning this view of the president and the country, Americans express high levels of satisfaction with various aspects of their own lives and continued optimism about their financial futures. Today, 45% of the public says they are very satisfied with their standard of living, up substantially from 35% in late 1996. Similarly, 37% say they are very satisfied with their household income, up from 27% in 1996. Americans are even happier about their family lives (71% are very satisfied) and with their housing situations (61%).

The increase in economic satisfaction over the past two years has been somewhat greater among those who are more affluent. And while African-Americans express lower satisfaction than whites with many aspects of their lives, the number of blacks who say that they are happy with their standard of living is up substantially from two years ago. Today, 42% of blacks say they are very satisfied, compared to just 19% in 1996.

Overall, the public continues to express reservations about education in America today, although parents are much more satisfied than non-parents. Some 46% of parents are very satisfied with their children’s education, compared to just 15% of non-parents who are very satisfied with the education children are getting.

Priorities

As the 106th Congress takes office, the public agenda remains much the same as it was prior to the 1998 elections, with at least 70% of Americans emphasizing education, Social Security and crime as top priorities. This is no different from January 1998, when these same three issues led the list of the public’s concerns. What is different in 1999 is the emergence of health care reform as a major issue: 69% list it as a top priority, up from 62% last year and 56% in 1997.

Furthermore, as the country continues to enjoy economic prosperity, Americans are less concerned about employment issues than they were in past years. Only 50% of the public lists jobs as a top priority, a drop of 4 percentage points since 1998 and 16 percentage points since 1997. Among 15 domestic and economic issues, the public places the least emphasis on reducing the federal debt, reforming campaign finance and cutting the capital gains tax.

In general, both Republicans and Democrats rank the same issues — education, crime, Social Security and health care — as top priorities, but they give relatively different rankings to each. Health care reform takes lead post for Democrats (84%), but fifth place (56%) among Republicans. Conversely, while 64% of Republicans list dealing with moral breakdown as a top priority (ranking it 3rd), only 44% of Democrats agree. Morality does not make the list of top ten Democratic priorities. This is also true of Independents, only 43% of whom rank it as a top priority

There are significant gaps between the priorities of blacks and whites, with the greatest divide on employment. Fully 85% of blacks rank improving jobs as a top priority, compared to only 45% of whites. African-Americans are much more likely than whites to emphasize reforming health care (91% vs. 66%), helping the poor (70% vs. 55%), dealing with the problems of families with children (75% vs. 55%), protecting Medicare (78% vs. 59%), and reducing racial tensions (64% vs. 46%).

Not surprisingly, senior citizens rank shoring up the Social Security (89%) and Medicare (81%) systems above all other items. Americans under age 30 place a lower priority on these two issues: 56% give Social Security a top ranking; 47% place Medicare this high. Conversely, young adults are much more likely than those 65 years and older to rank dealing with the problems of the poor (61% vs. 44%) and the environment (60% vs. 47%) as top priorities.

Women outnumber men in their emphasis on crime (79% vs. 61%), Medicare (67% vs. 57%), the environment (57% vs. 46%) and racial tensions (56% vs. 41%).

Democrats with Agenda Edge

On the public’s top priority items, the Democratic Party now enjoys a huge advantage over the Republicans. When it comes to improving education, protecting Social Security and regulating managed health care plans, the Democrats outrank the Republicans as the party with the best ideas by margins as great as 21 percentage points. The Democrats also have a clear edge on the classic GOP issue of tax cuts.

The only issue on the which Republicans hold a significant advantage is improving morality in this country: 37% of Americans say Republicans have the best ideas in this area, compared to 29% who give Democrats the edge.

Consistent with the GOP’s relatively low ratings on issues, just 44% of Americans hold a favorable view of the Republican Party, compared to 50% who hold an unfavorable view. The percentage of people holding an unfavorable view is larger than at any point since 1992, and the percentage holding a very negative view, now 23%, has doubled in the past five months. Ratings for Democrats, meanwhile, have been more consistent in recent months; 55% of the public now holds a favorable view of the party and 38% holds an unfavorable view.

Today, just 38% of Americans approve of the job the GOP congressional leaders are doing. This number is virtually unchanged from November and December, 1998 and is in line with the average rating of 40% over the last four years. That said, the percent of Americans who disapprove of the job the Republican leaders are doing is down slightly: 50% now vs. 56% in a late December poll taken immediately after the House vote to impeach President Clinton.

The overall favorability ratings for Congress remain mixed: 48% of Americans have a favorable view, 45% unfavorable. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott also receives mixed marks: 27% have a favorable opinion of him, 30% unfavorable.

Looking Ahead to 2000

Potential presidential hopeful Elizabeth Dole gets high marks from the public. Fully two-thirds of Americans (66%) have a favorable opinion of the former Red Cross President; only 20% express an unfavorable view. Mrs. Dole is well liked by women and men and gets more favorable reviews from college-educated Americans and those with higher incomes. Her appeal is not limited to Republicans: 56% of Democrats view her favorably, as do 68% of Independents.

Like Texas Governor George W. Bush, Dole stands up well in hypothetical match-ups against Vice President Al Gore for the 2000 presidential race: 47% of registered voters say they would vote for Dole, 43% favor Gore. At this point, Bush bests Gore 50% to 44%. In both cases, Independents favor Republicans Dole and Bush over Gore.

At this point in time, Dole does not seem to benefit from a gender gap. Women are no more likely to vote for Dole than they are to vote for Bush. Gender actually works to Bush’s advantage, as he enjoys a 12 percentage point lead among men when paired against Gore, compared to Dole’s smaller 7 percentage point lead among men.

Most Americans don’t think a woman president would be all that different from a man. When asked whether a women president would be better than a man at improving honesty and ethics in Washington, a 61% majority said there would be no difference. On the question of getting things done in Washington, 62% said there would be no difference between a woman and a man.

While women are more likely than men to say a female president would be better at improving honesty and ethics in Washington, a majority of women agree with men that gender really makes no difference. Women are no more inclined than men to say a female in the White House would do a better job getting things done in Washington (18% and 16%, respectively). Again, a majority of women and men say gender wouldn’t make a difference.

News Interest Index

Cold winter weather and clashes between U.S. and Iraqi warplanes top the news interest index so far this month, with 37% of the public paying very close attention to each story. Not surprisingly, interest in the winter storms spiked in the Midwest, where 60% of adults closely followed news of the snow and cold that paralyzed much of the region.

Despite the fanfare surrounding the bipartisan Senate agreement to proceed to the trial of President Clinton and the opening arguments by the House managers, interest in the story floated back down to 27% after briefly climbing to 34% immediately after the House vote to impeach Clinton. Interest is higher than average among Clinton’s chief critics: 33% of Republicans are paying very close attention to the Senate trial, compared to 27% of Democrats and 23% of Independents. Similarly, Clinton’s chief backers are particularly attuned: 33% of non-whites compared to 26% of whites are paying very close attention to the story.

The ups and downs in the U. S. stock market drew the very close attention of 24% of the public. Those with vested interests in the market paid particularly close attention: 39% of those with family incomes over $50,000 but only 15% of those with incomes under $30,000 paid very close attention to the story.

News of Chicago Bulls star Michael Jordan’s decision to retire garnered the very close attention of just 18% of the public. Though only marginal differences are seen across gender, generational or educational lines, non-whites were far more interested in the story than were whites: 35% of minorities paid very close attention to Jordan’s retirement announcement vs. 16% of whites. The story was especially popular with men under age 30, 27% of whom paid very close attention.

It may have been only the second impeachment in history, but it was a non-starter to the American public. Not only did the President’s approval ratings go up following the House’s decision, but only 34% of Americans paid very close attention to the proceedings. More people followed news about the attack on Iraq (44%) than the debate and historic vote this past weekend. In fact, the impeachment vote was not even among the top ten news interest stories of 1998.

The 805 adults who were re-interviewed December 19-21 were strongly supportive of Bill Clinton.* His job approval rating rose from 61% to 71%, and there was no significant increase from the original survey in the number who want to see him removed from office (31% vs. 29%). Only 30% say they would like to see Clinton resign in favor of Al Gore. [*NOTE: The original survey was conducted largely after the Judiciary Committee's vote on articles of impeachment (Dec 9-13,1998).]

Two thirds of Pew’s respondents (67%) think most members of Congress who voted for impeachment did so for political reasons, and only 25% think members did so because they thought Clinton’s actions warranted removal from office. The public is divided over Representative Bob Livingston’s decision to step down because of past marital infidelity. Some 46% say it was a good idea, 43% a bad one. A majority of Democrats oppose Livingston’s decision (52%), while most Republicans believe it was a good idea (56%).

By a 56% to 35% margin the public thinks media coverage of the impeachment debate was fair and objective. But of those who disagree, most think the media favored a Republican point of view.

President Clinton’s approval ratings increased significantly among political Independents and Republicans after his impeachment. This boost in ratings may represent a show of sympathy for the President rather than an increase in base support. This is particularly true among Republicans: while 41% now approve of the job the President is doing, 64% still believe he should be removed from office.

Public support for the continuance of the Clinton presidency is unchanged by the deliberations and decisions of the House Judiciary Committee, but Americans appear unrattled by news of the President’s possible impeachment.

Majorities say that their opinions about whether Bill Clinton should be removed from office were not swayed either by the hearings or by the Committee votes in favor of four articles of impeachment. By a wide margin, people continue to feel that based on what they know now, Clinton should not be impeached and removed from office (67%-29%).

However, the nationwide survey of 1,201 adults, conducted December 9-13 as the House Judiciary Committee cast historic votes for impeachment, found Americans in remarkably good spirits. Most of Pew’s respondents said that 1998 has been a good year for them (72% ), a good year for their community (78%), a good year for their state (74%), and even a good year for the country (59%). Further, there is little indication that the prospect of impeachment is dampening public optimism: 59% of Americans think 1999 will be an even better year for them.

At 61%, public approval of Clinton’s job performance is in line with this rosy view of things. However, opinion is not all positive for him. A 53% majority of Americans disapprove of the way he has handled the investigation. Moreover, there is little indication that Clinton’s talk to the nation last Friday gained him much public sympathy. In fact, respondents interviewed after his statement were marginally more critical than those interviewed before it (55% vs. 50%).

The President is not alone in getting a bad public review. All of the key players in the investigation are judged poorly by the American people. By a margin of 59%-33%, the public disapproves of Republicans in Congress for their handling of the inquiry. Chairman Henry Hyde also gets a negative rating: 37% approve, 43% disapprove. Democrats were judged only somewhat better: 44% approve, 46% disapprove.

Looking forward, the GOP can expect even more public condemnation should they impeach Bill Clinton: 33% of Pew’s respondents said they would have a worse opinion of Republicans in Congress, if they take this step, compared to 13% who said they would have a better opinion of them. Tellingly, only 27% of rank-and-file Republicans would have a better opinion of their party should they impeach the President, while 42% of Democrats and Independents would have a worse view of the GOP.

Also, looking ahead, the public thinks that similar scandals could best be avoided by making sure that a president’s private life remains private, rather than by electing a president with high moral character. Here partisanship makes a big difference as Republicans put an emphasis on a president of high moral character by a 64%-31% margin, while Democrats (14%-83%) and Independents (34%-60%) opt for more personal privacy for the country’s chief executive.

Moderate Attention Paid

Despite extensive media coverage of the impeachment debate and votes in the House Judiciary Committee, the public showed no more interest in the story this past weekend than it did all year. Just 32% of the country reported following the story very closely during the final Committee debate. This is consistent with the interest in the story throughout 1998. In fact, 64% of the public believes the media is giving too much attention to the story.

The muted interest is consistent with the low priority Americans place on impeachment. Just 28% of the public believes impeaching and removing President Clinton from office is very important to the nation. By contrast, three times as many Americans say that making Social Security financially sound is very important to the nation (87%).

Two-thirds of the public maintains that Congress is paying too much attention to the issue (65%), and they see politics motivating both Clinton’s critics and his defenders. By a margin of 71%-18%, the public says Republicans are pursuing impeachment for political reasons rather than because what Clinton did was serious enough to end his presidency.

Democrats are seen with only slightly less jaundiced eyes: By 61%-26%, Americans say Democrats too are motivated by politics rather than the belief that Clinton’s actions are not that serious.