The public, voters and non-voters alike, has a subdued reaction to the Republican Party’s midterm election victory. Four years ago, the response to the Democrats regaining full control of Congress was far more positive, as it was in 1994 when the GOP won a historic victory. Fewer people today say they are happy about the Republican victory, approve of the GOP’s plans for the future, and far fewer believe Republicans will be successful in getting their programs passed into law.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 4-7 among 1,255 adults, finds 48% saying they are happy that the Republican Party won control of the House while 34% are unhappy. Four years ago, 60% said they were happy the Democrats won full control of Congress, compared with just 24% who were unhappy. That mirrored the public’s reaction in December 1994 to the GOP winning control of Congress for the first time in 40 years (57% happy vs. 31% unhappy).

In the current survey, 52% of those who said they voted in the Nov. 2 election were happy with the outcome compared with 42% of non-voters. Still, more voters in 2006 – 60% – said they were happy with the Democrats’ victory.

The public has a mixed reaction to the Republican policies and plans for the future: 41% approve, while nearly as many (37%) disapprove. Approval is somewhat greater among voters (45%) than among non-voters (35%). But on balance, both the general public and voters express less positive views of the GOP’s policies than they did of the Democrats’ proposals after the 2006 election.

The public is skeptical that the GOP will be successful in getting its programs passed into law. About four-in-ten (43%) think they will be successful while 37% say they will be unsuccessful. Following the elections of 2006 and 1994, when the victorious parties gained majorities in both the House and Senate, far more people thought they would be successful in enacting their agenda (59% in 2006, 62% in 1994).

There is little optimism that, in the wake of the election, relations between the two parties will improve. Just 22% expect relations between Republicans and Democrats to get better in the coming year, 28% say they will get worse, while 48% say they will stay about the same as they are now. Two years ago, after the presidential election, 37% of voters expected partisan relations to improve and just 18% thought they would get worse.

Most Americans (55%) say that Republican leaders in Congress should work with Barack Obama, even if that disappoints some of their supporters. Even more (62%) want Obama to cooperate with GOP leaders, even if that disappoints some Democrats.

Independents want the two sides to work together – 57% say GOP leaders should cooperate with Obama while about as many (59%) say that the president should work with GOP leaders. But as many Democrats say Obama should stand up to Republican leaders (43%) as work with them (46%).

Republicans are even less interested in seeing their party’s congressional leaders work with Obama – and far fewer GOP voters want their party’s leaders to work with Obama than did so after the 2008 presidential election. Currently 66% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters want GOP leaders to stand up to Obama, up from 47% shortly after the presidential election two years ago.

On balance, more Americans say that Obama, rather than Republican congressional leaders, should take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. Nearly half (49%) say President Obama should take the lead, compared with 30% who say GOP leaders. Following the 2006 election, opinion on this measure was nearly reversed – 29% said President George W. Bush should take the lead, while 51% said Democratic congressional leaders.

At the same time, however, the public says that Republicans will have a better approach than Obama on taxes, the budget deficit, and jobs and economic growth. On Social Security and health care, neither side’s approach is favored, while Obama holds a modest advantage on foreign policy.

Cut Government But…

Americans express more conservative views about the role of government than they did just two years ago. However, when it comes to the major policy decisions that will arise in coming months, the public is closely divided.

Nearly as many approve (43%) as disapprove (47%) of the new health care law, and opinions are split over what Congress should do about the legislation. Four-in-ten (40%) favor repealing the health care law, but a larger proportion (52%) says that the law should be expanded (30%) or kept as it is (22%).

Opinion about what to do with the tax cuts passed during the Bush administration is divided three ways: 34% favor keeping all of the tax cuts; 30% say the tax cuts for the wealthy should be repealed while other reductions stay in place; and 28% say all the tax cuts should be repealed.

More people say that if they were setting priorities for the government, they would place a higher priority on reducing the federal budget deficit (50%) than on spending more to help the economy recover (43%). Those who cast a midterm ballot are more likely than nonvoters to see reducing the budget deficit as a higher priority (55% to 41%).

Substantial partisan gaps are evident in attitudes toward all of these issues. However, Republicans are more unified than Democrats in their views of what to do about health care legislation and tax cuts. Fully 77% of Republicans favor repealing the health care bill, while Democrats are split between expanding the measure (48%) and keeping it as it is (33%). And while 56% of Republicans favor keeping all the tax cuts, about as many Democrats favor repealing just the tax cuts for the wealthy (41%) as support getting rid of all the tax cuts (38%).

These attitudes reflect a continuing difference between Republicans and Democrats over the parties’ ideological directions. Over the past two years, Republican and Republican-leaning independents have consistently favored the GOP moving in a more conservative direction. Democrats and Democratic leaners have been just as consistent in their preference that their party move in a more moderate direction.

Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly favor the GOP moving in a more conservative direction: 71% express this view compared with just 40% of Republicans who have no opinion of the Tea Party or disagree with it.

Lower Grades for Campaign 2010

Voters express somewhat more negative views of the just-concluded campaign than they did of the 2006 midterm election. Fully 77% of voters say there was more negative campaigning or mud-slinging than in previous elections; 69% of voters expressed this view after the 2006 election.

Most voters (64%) say they learned enough to make an informed choice, but an even higher percentage said this in November 2006 (72%). And slightly fewer voters say there was more discussion of issues than did so after the 2006 election (35% today, 40% then).

Far more Republican voters (50%) say there was more discussion of issues than said that in 2006 (32%). By contrast, just 28% of Democratic voters said issues received m
ore attention – down from 50% who said this after the Democrats regained control of Congress in 2006.

Other Important Findings

• President Obama’s approval rating stands at 44%; an identical percentage disapproves of his job performance.

• Roughly a third of Democrats (34%) say they would like to see other Democratic candidates challenge Obama for the party’s nomination in 2012. In December 1994, far more Democrats (66%) supported a primary challenge to President Clinton.

• Just 16% of registered voters who attend religious services at least once a month say election information was available at their place of worship, down from 25% after the 2006 midterms.

• The GOP continues to be seen as a leaderless party: 51% say they don’t know who leads the Republican Party while 14% volunteer that no one does. More now see John Boehner as the leader of the GOP (10%) than did so in September (4%).

• There is no clear front-runner for the 2012 Republican nomination for president: Sarah Palin (15%), Mike Huckabee (15%), and Mitt Romney (13%) all receive about the same levels of support.

Both the public and the media focused most closely last week on the congressional elections as Tuesday’s midterm vote approached. Still, the public’s interest in election news did not increase in the final days of the campaign, despite heavy news coverage.

The latest News Interest Index survey, conducted among 1,003 adults from Oct. 28 to Nov. 1, the day before the midterm election, finds that 29% said they were following news about the congressional elections very closely; that is little changed from 30% a week earlier and 33% in mid-October.

The elections were the week’s most closely followed news story: 24% said they followed the elections more closely than any other story compared with 18% who cited news about the economy. However, coverage of the elections accounted for 42% of coverage, far outpacing any other story, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ).

Throughout the campaign season, Republicans have tracked election news more closely than Democrats. Last week, 40% of Republicans said they followed this news very closely, compared with 31% of Democrats and 22% of independents.

California Marijuana Proposition Registers

Going into Tuesday’s voting, three-quarters of the public had heard at least a little about the California ballot proposal that would have legalized the use of marijuana in the state. About a third (34%) said they heard a lot about the initiative, while 41% said they heard a little. About a quarter (24%) heard nothing at all.

Six-in-ten had heard at least a little about spending on campaigns by groups with funding from anonymous donors. About a quarter (27%) said they heard a lot about this, while 33% said they heard a little. Four-in-ten (40%) had heard nothing at all.

Two-in-ten (20%) said they had heard a lot before Election Day about potential problems with the accuracy of voter registration records and concerns about vote fraud or suppression. About a third (34%) had heard a little about this, while 45% said they had heard nothing at all.

Nearly half had heard at least a little about the rally on the National Mall held by Comedy Central hosts Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert (19% a lot, 28% a little), but a majority (52%) said they had heard nothing at all about this. In late August, 16% said they had heard a lot about another rally on the Mall held by conservative talk show host Glenn Beck; 26% had heard a little and 58% had heard nothing at all about that rally.

Among partisans, there was little difference in the percentages that had heard a lot about the California marijuana ballot initiative. About a third of Republicans (32%), Democrats (35%) and independents (34%) said they heard a lot about this story.

Democrats (29%), Republicans (24%) and independents (27%) were about equally likely to say they had heard a lot about news about spending on this year’s campaigns by groups with funding for anonymous donors.

More Republicans than Democrats or independents said they heard a lot about the possibility of voter fraud or voter suppression in this year’s elections. Three-in-ten Republicans (30%) said they heard a lot about this, compared with 19% of Democrats and 16% of independents.

On the other hand, Democrats were more likely to have heard a lot about the Stewart-Colbert event on the Mall than Republicans (24% vs. 14%). About two-in-ten independents (19%) say they heard a lot about last weekend’s rally.

Though young people generally follow news less closely than older age groups, those younger than 30 were as likely as older Americans last week to say they had heard a lot about the California ballot initiative and the Stewart-Colbert rally. Those in the Northeast were most likely to say they heard a lot about the Stewart-Colbert rally. Three-in-ten (30%) say this, compared with 14% each in the Midwest and in the South. A quarter of those in the West (25%) say they had heard a lot about the rally.

The Week’s News

Despite the long election year, the public often paid more attention to other major, long-running stories – such as the troubled economy or the Gulf oil spill.

About a quarter (24%) said the congressional election was the news they most closely followed last week; 18% say they followed news about the economy more closely than any other news story.

Still, a greater percentage (39%) said they followed news about the economy very closely than said the same about the midterm elections (29%). With ongoing concerns about the strength of the economic recovery, this has been the case for much of 2010.

About one-in-ten (12%) said they followed news about the World Series that pitted the San Francisco Giants against the Texas Rangers most closely. Fewer than two-in-ten (16%) said they followed the Major League Baseball championship very closely, matching the 16% that said they followed the 2009 series between the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies very closely.

One-in-ten (10%) said they followed developments in the government investigation into the causes of the Gulf oil spill more closely than any other news; 19% said they followed this news very closely. Reports that the companies working on the well had been aware of potential flaws in certain materials accounted for 3% of coverage.

Nearly three-in-ten (28%) said they followed news about recent terrorist plots in the U.S. and Europe very closely; 8% said they followed these reports more closely than other stories. News about explosives discovered on two flights from Yemen accounted for 5% of coverage, while news about the arrest of a man allegedly plotting to bomb Washington, D.C. Metro stations accounted for another 2%.

About one-in-ten (11%) said they very closely followed news about the tsunami and earthquake that hit Indonesia last week; 4% say this was the news they followed most closely. The natural disasters accounted for 1% of coverage.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center’s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media’s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected October 25-31, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected October 28 to November 1, from a nationally representative sample of 1,003 adults.

About the News Interest Index

The News Interest Index is a weekly survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press aimed at gauging the public’s interest in and reaction to major news events. This project has been undertaken in conjunction with the Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, an ongoing content analysis of the news. The News Coverage Index catalogues the news from top news organizations across five maj
or sectors of the media: newspapers, network television, cable television, radio and the internet. Each week (from Monday through Sunday) PEJ compiles this data to identify the top stories for the week. (For more information about the Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, go to www.journalism.org.) The News Interest Index survey collects data from Thursday through Sunday to gauge public interest in the most covered stories of the week. This week’s survey also included interviewing on Monday.

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults living in the continental United States, 18 years of age or older, from October 28-November 1 (672 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 331 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 134 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2009 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status based on extrapolations from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Pew Research Center’s final 2010 pre-election survey finds the Republican Party continuing to hold a solid lead in preferences for Tuesday’s midterm election. The poll, conducted Oct. 27-30 among 2,373 registered voters, including 1,809 voters considered the most likely to vote, shows that 48% of likely voters say they will vote for the Republican in their district, compared with 42% who favor the Democratic candidate.

These results suggest little trend in voter opinion nationwide and they track results of a Pew Research Center poll conducted two weeks ago. That survey found the GOP holding a 50% to 40% lead among likely voters. This is the third consecutive poll since September finding a significant Republican lead among likely voters.

The size and consistency of the probable Republican margin suggests that the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote nationwide to recapture control of the House of Representatives, barring a remarkable last-minute Democratic surge. A party’s share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins has been highly correlated in recent midterm elections.

In addition, the poll finds that the judgments of voters who are still uncertain or undecided do not favor either party. About as many likely voters say they lean toward a Republican candidate as toward a Democrat (3% each). And an analysis of undecided voters – 7% of all likely voters – shows no clear signs of their likelihood of favoring one party over the other by a significant margin.

Many of the patterns apparent throughout the 2010 campaign remain clearly evident in its final days. First, the Republicans enjoy a substantial engagement advantage. The GOP’s overall lead is only evident when the sample is narrowed to likely voters. Among all registered voters, preferences are about evenly divided – 44% Democrat, 43% Republican.

This represents one of the largest gaps in preferences between all voters and likely voters ever recorded in Pew Research Center surveys. As was the case earlier in the campaign, this is more a consequence of unusually high engagement among Republicans than disengagement among Democrats. Since September, a growing number of Democrats say they have given a lot of thought to the election, but they still lag Republicans by a wide margin. The current levels of Democratic engagement are fairly typical for a midterm election, though they are somewhat below what they were in 2006, when the party regained control of Congress.

Second, the engagement gap notwithstanding, the Republicans owe much of their lead to strong backing from independents and other non-partisan voters. As in previous polls, likely independent voters favor GOP candidates by a wide margin – currently, 45% to 32%. Shortly before the 2006 election, independents and backed Democratic candidates by a 42% to 35% margin.

Third, compared with 2006, the GOP has made gains among many segments of the electorate, but especially men, voters age 65 and older, and whites. The Democrats hold substantial leads only among African Americans, younger voters, those with low family incomes, union households and the religiously unaffiliated.

The job situation continues to be the dominant issue in 2010. Nearly four-in-ten likely voters (38%) say the job situation will be most important in their vote, compared with 24% who say health care will be most important and 19% who cite the deficit; just 7% of likely voters say either the situation in Afghanistan (4%) or terrorism (3%). The deficit and health care rival jobs as the top voting issue for Republicans; among Democratic and independent likely voters, far more say jobs will be most important than say any other issue.

The pre-election survey indicates that overall voter turnout is likely to be as high this year as in 2006 – when 40% of age eligible voters cast a ballot – and higher than in previous midterms. Reflecting the growing popularity of early voting, 25% of likely voters say they have already voted, up from 18% in the final survey four years ago. Among those who have already voted, 49% say they have voted for a Republican candidate, while 41% have voted for a Democrat.

GOP Turnout Advantage Remains Large

In the final weeks of the campaign, there are no signs that the large engagement gap favoring the Republican Party has narrowed. Republican voters continue to be far more likely than Democrats to say they have given a lot of thought to this year’s election (70% vs. 55%); more Republicans than Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s congressional election (61% vs. 41%); and Republicans are eight points more likely to say they are following campaign news “very closely” (39% vs. 31%).

These measures suggest that overall turnout is likely to be as high this year as in the 2006 midterm elections. Among registered voters, 59% say they have given a lot of thought to this election, comparable to the 61% who said this in the closing days of the 2006 campaign, and higher than the 52% and 49% who said this in 2002 and 1998, respectively. When it comes to campaign news, 34% are following very closely, again comparable with 2006 (33%) and substantially higher than in previous midterm elections.

Fully 70% of Republicans have given a lot of thought to this election, the highest figure recorded among either Republicans or Democrats over the past five midterm election cycles. And the differential between Republicans and Democrats is larger than ever previously recorded.

Because of this large engagement gap, the likely electorate is skewed toward voting blocs that favor the GOP. While 16% of all registered voters are under age 30, this age group makes up only 8% of likely voters due to their lower levels of interest and commitment to voting. Similarly, lower income Americans, who tend to favor the Democrats, make up a smaller share of the likely electorate due to their lower engagement levels. These patterns are not unusual; in most election cycles, turnout tends to be lower among a number of voting blocs that favor the Democratic Party. For a full profile of registered and likely voters in previous midterm election cycles, see page 13.

Issues and the Vote

The economy has dominated much of the campaign debate this fall, but it is not the only issue on the minds of voters. Asked to choose among a list of six issues, 38% of likely voters selected the job situation as the most important issue in their vote. Nearly a quarter (24%) selected health care, and 19% picked the deficit first. Immigration (at 6%), Afghanistan (4%) and terrorism (3%) trailed the top three.

Among Republicans, comparable percentages cite the job situation (30%), the deficit (27%) and health care (25%) as most important. Among Democrats, jobs clearly tops the list (at 47%), but health care is cited by 28% as most important to their vote.

Health care is cited by a 53% majority of voters when given the opportunity to cite two issues. The job situation remains the most frequently cited issue (at 62%). The deficit is mentioned by 37% of voters as one of the top two issues.

Voters who cite the job situation as a top issue tilt toward the Democratic candidate for Congress (49% Democratic, 42% Republican). Those who cite health care are nearly evenly divided in their vote preference (47% Republican, 46% Democrat). But those who cite the deficit as one of the top two issues are voting Republican by more than two-to-one (63% Republican, 29% Democrat).

The relatively small percentage of likely voters who cite immigration and terrorism as top issues also tip heavily in a Republican direction (65%-28% Republican among those citing immigration, 55%-37% among those citing terrorism). Voters who see the situation in Afghanistan as a top issue are voting Democratic by a 64% to 25% margin.

National Factors Loom Large for Voters

In what has turned out to be a nationalized election, about six-in-ten voters (62%) say that which party controls Congress will be a factor in their votes this year. More than half (54%) see their vote as a referendum on Barack Obama – but those people are divided; 28% see it as a vote against Obama, while 26% see it as a vote for the president. And a plurality (35%) say that national issues – as opposed to local concerns or a candidate’s character and experience – will make the biggest difference in how they vote. These numbers have changed only slightly in recent months.

The 62% who say that party control of Congress will be a factor in their votes nearly matches the 61% of registered voters who said this in 2006. Just before the 2002 midterms, about half (48%) said party control would be a factor. This year, 71% of those planning to vote Republican say party control will play a role in their votes, while 64% of those planning to vote Democratic say the same.

More than a third of voters (35%) say national issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote; 28% say local issues will and 24% say a candidate’s character and experience will. Those numbers are comparable to 2006, another highly nationalized election when control of Congress was in play. In 1994, however, a 38% plurality said local and state issues were the biggest factors, 30% said a candidate’s character and experience were and just 22% named national issues as the biggest factor.

Currently, 44% of those who plan to vote Republican say national issues will be the biggest factor, compared with 30% of those who plan to vote Democratic. A plurality of independents (35%) also say this. In 2006, 38% of those planning to vote Democratic said national issues would be the biggest factor; 32% of those who planned to vote Republican said the same.

While just more than half say they see their votes as a statement about Obama (26% for, 28% against), about four-in-ten (42%) say the president will not be much of a factor in their votes.

More than half of those planning to vote Democratic (52%) say they view their vote as a vote for the president, while 56% of those planning to vote Republican see their vote as a vote against Obama.

In 2006, during Bush’s second term, about two-thirds of those planning to vote Democratic (65%) said their vote was a vote against the president; just 44% of those planning to vote Republican said their vote was a vote in support of Bush.

Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Runs High

As has been the case throughout the 2010 campaign, voters express high levels of anti-incumbent sentiment. Nearly a third (32%) say they would not like to see their own member of Congress reelected, and 51% say they would not like to see most members reelected. On both measures, levels of anti-incumbent sentiment are as high as in any midterm election cycle dating to 1994.

Opposition to incumbents runs particularly high among Republican voters. Three-quarters of Republicans (75%) do not want most members reelected and 40% do not want their own member returned to office. Far smaller percentages of Democratic voters say they do not want to see most members (25%) or their own member (19%) reelected. Independent voters track closer to Republicans with 58% preferring that most members are not reelected and 38% saying they would not like their own representative to retain their seat.

Voter Outreach

On the eve of the election, most voters say they have been contacted by candidates or political groups this season. About eight-in-ten (79%) report having received printed mail from candidates or political groups and six-in-ten (60%) say they have received pre-recorded telephone calls about the elections. Smaller percentages report having been contacted by a live person talking about the elections either over the telephone (31%) or in person at home (19%). About a quarter say they have received email (27%) and 5% say they have received a text message from political groups or candidates. In addition to direct contacts, majorities say they have seen or heard a lot of ads on behalf of both Republicans (57%) and Democrats (53%).

Campaign outreach has intensified over the last few weeks, as more voters report getting mail, and receiving both pre-recorded and live calls than they did two weeks ago. And compared with this point in the 2006 election, more voters are reporting contact over email (27% today, up from 14% then), in person (19%, up from 15%) and over the phone. In 2006, 50% reported receiving phone calls; today, 65% report receiving either an automated (60%) or a live call (31%).

In the last few weeks of the campaign, outreach has intensified for Republicans, Democrats and independents, but Republicans are more likely than other voters to report having received printed mail or pre-recorded telephone calls. While seven-in-ten Republicans (70%) say they have received robocalls about the election, that compares to substantially smaller majorities of both Democrats (56%) and independents (57%). And although 77% of Democrats and 78% of independents say they have received printed mail, 83% of Republicans have done so. There are no significant partisan differences in other forms of direct campaign contact.

Early Voting Increases

Roughly one-in-four (25%) likely voters say they have already voted. This is up from 18% in 2006.

Reflecting the variation in voting rules in different states, early voting intentions vary by region. As was the case in 2006, far more voters (45%) in the West than in other regions have already cast their ballots. A quarter (25%) of voters living in the South have already voted. Only 18% in the Midwest and 6% of in the Northeast have already cast their ballot.

There also are differences in early voting by age. Roughly a third (35%) of voters 65 and older have already voted, compared with 25% of those ages 50 to 64 and only 17% of voters under 50. In 2006, voters over 50 also were more likely to vote early.

There are no differences in early voting by gender or party. But nearly a quarter (24%) of non-Hispanic whites have already voted, compared with 15% of African Americans.

Two years ahead of the next presidential election, the public is divided over whether Barack Obama should run for a second term as president. About half (47%) say they would like to see Obama run again in 2012, while 42% say they would not. This is better than the outlook for Ronald Reagan in August 1982; at that point, just 36% of the public said they wanted to see Reagan – who subsequently went on to win his second term by an 18-point margin – run for reelection.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted October 21-24 among 1,006 adults, finds that the 47% who currently say they would like Obama to run again is comparable to public opinion about Bill Clinton on a similar question following the 1994 midterm elections (44% thought Clinton should seek the 1996 Democratic nomination, 47% did not).

Opinions about whether Obama should run again reflect his overall approval rating. In the most recent Pew Research Center survey, 46% approved of Obama’s job performance. This was also the case for Clinton in December 1994, shortly after that year’s midterm elections (41% approval).

As is the case with Obama, Reagan’s first two years in office were coupled with tough economic times and sliding approval ratings. Reagan’s approval ratings closely tracked economic indicators. According to Gallup polling, Reagan’s approval rating stood at 42% in August 1982 and bottomed out at 35% in the beginning of 1983. Opinions about Reagan’s political future at this time reflected this: In February 1983, as in August 1982, far more said that Reagan should not run for reelection (57%) than said he should (35%).

Views of Obama Second Term More Partisan than in Past Years

Support for the president running for reelection is associated with partisanship, but partisan divisions over Obama running again are greater than they were for Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush or Bill Clinton during their second year in office.

In August 1982, 65% of Republicans wanted to see Reagan run again, compared with 19% of Democrats – a 46-point gap. Similarly, following the 1990 midterm elections, 72% of Republicans said they wanted to see Bush run again in 1992, compared to 38% of Democrats –a 34-point gap. In 1994, there was a 34-point partisan gap over Clinton’s possible reelection bid (61% of Democrats vs. 27% of Republicans). Today, by comparison, there is a 71-point partisan gap over whether Obama should run again in 2012; more than eight-in-ten Democrats (83%) would like to see him run, compared with just 12% of Republicans.

On balance, more independents say Obama should not run (47%) than say he should (37%). This balance of opinion is similar to independents’ opinions of a possible second term for Reagan in 1982 (47% did not want to see him run, 34% did).

VOTERS SPLIT OVER POSSIBLE IMPACT OF POWER SHIFT IN CONGRESS

Voters are evenly divided over whether the country would be better off if Republicans win control of Congress on Nov. 2 or if Democrats hold on to their majorities, even as Republicans hold a wide lead in congressional voting intentions.

Among registered voters, about a third (32%) say it would be better for the country if Republicans win control of Congress; an identical percentage (32%) says it would be better if Democrats maintain control. Still, 30% say it would make no difference, according to latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted October 21-24 among 1,006 adults.

Those numbers change only slightly among likely voters: 38% say it would be better for the nation if the GOP wins control, 34% say it would be better of Democrats maintain their majorities and 23% say it would make no difference.

A separate Pew Research survey released last week showed a 10-point edge for Republicans (50% to 40%) when likely voters were asked whether they plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress. Although 61% of voters said which party controls Congress would be a factor in their vote – as many as said that in the 2006 campaign – 36% said party control would not be a factor.

Republicans and Democrats overwhelmingly say the country will be better off if their party controls Congress (73% of Republicans say this, as do 67% of Democrats). About four-in-ten independents (42%), however, say it would make no difference. More independents say Republican control would be better for the country than Democratic control (32% vs. 16%).

Mixed Views of Possible GOP Agenda

Voters also are divided on many of the proposals that have been floated by Republicans in the campaign and could become part of their agenda if they win control of one or both chambers of Congress.

Three possible GOP proposals – allowing more offshore energy drilling in U.S. waters (55% approve), changing Social Security to allow private accounts for younger works (51%) and repealing health care legislation – attract more support than opposition.

Voters are evenly divided over a possible constitutional amendment so that U.S. children of illegal immigrants would not automatically be U.S. citizens (46% approve vs. 46% disapprove). And about as many disapprove (48%) as approve (43%) of a possible freeze on all government spending, except for spending on national security.

More voters disapprove than approve of two other possible Republican proposals – 52% disapprove of passing laws that impose greater restrictions on abortion and the same percentage (52%) disapproves of permanently extending tax cuts for those with incomes over $250,000. And there is more opposition (52%) than support (42%) for the prospect of major investigations of the Obama administration. A Gallup survey in October 2006, before Democrats took control of Congress, found that 51% approved of major investigations of the Bush administration while 47% disapproved of this.

While Republican voters overwhelmingly approve of all of the possible GOP initiatives, there is particularly widespread support for repealing health care legislation (81% approve) and allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling (77%). Democratic voters disapprove of most these proposals by wide margins; however, only about half of Democrats disapprove of allowing more offshore oil and gas drilling (52% disapprove) and changing Social Security to allow private accounts for younger workers (48%). Independent voters’ views mirror those of all voters.

As the midterm elections approach, there is every indication that voter turnout will be as high as in 2006, but unlike four years ago, Republicans – not Democrats – are now more engaged and enthusiastic about casting a ballot. The prospects for a GOP turnout advantage on Election Day are almost as favorable in the new Pew Research Center survey as they have been in all previous polls throughout the campaign.

The new survey does show some signs of the Democrats awakening. A growing number of Democratic voters say they have given a lot of thought to the coming elections and more say they have been closely following campaign news. However, Republican engagement continues at record levels, dwarfing even improved Democratic showings on these indicators.

Consequently, a considerably greater percentage of Republicans than Democrats still fall into the likely voter category. Moreover, the new survey shows that Democrats have lost ground among all voters: Currently, 46% of registered voters favor the Republican candidate in their district or lean Republican, while 42% favor the Democratic candidate or lean Democratic. In early September, 44% backed the Republican while 47% supported the Democratic candidate.

When the current survey is narrowed to those most likely to vote, the GOP holds a double-digit advantage – 50% to 40%. In early September, Republicans held a seven-point lead among likely voters (50% to 43%).

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 13-18 among 1,797 registered voters, including 1,354 likely voters, finds more ominous signs for Democrats. First, the growing popularity of early voting means that Democrats have less time to make up ground. The survey finds that about a quarter (27%) of voters nationally, including 52% of voters in the West, say they plan to vote before Election Day or have already voted. Republicans (29%) and Democrats (28%) are equally likely to say they plan to vote early or have already voted. At a comparable point in the 2006 midterm, 18% said they would be early voters.

Second, while the parties’ voter mobilization efforts are well underway at this stage of the campaign, there is no indication that Democrats are making more headway on these efforts than are Republicans.

Overall, voter outreach by the candidates and political groups now outpaces levels seen in October 2006. Currently, 59% say they have been reached by phone (either through a pre-recorded or live call) by candidates or political groups; four years ago, 41% said they had been reached over the phone. About a quarter of voters (26%) report receiving email from candidates or political groups; 16% said they had been contacted by email in October 2006. Nearly one-in-five (18%) say they have been visited at home by someone talking about the elections, which is up slightly from 2006 (14%).

In the new survey, 67% of Republicans say they have received live or recorded calls, compared with 54% of Democrats. In 2006, somewhat more Democrats (45%) than Republicans (37%) said they had been reached by phone. Republicans and Democrats are about equally likely to have been reached by email or through a personal visit at their home.

Campaign Ads Pervasive

Nearly nine-in-ten voters (88%) say they have seen or heard campaign commercials, and a majority (56%) say they have seen a lot of ads. In competitive House districts across the country, fully 67% say they have seen or heard a lot of campaign commercials.

And the tone of the campaign – on both sides – is negative. By greater than two-to-one (58% to 26%), voters say Republican candidates in their state have spent more time attacking Democrats than explaining what they would do if elected. Voters offer a similar assessment of Democratic candidates: 56% say they spend more of their time attacking Republicans, 26% say they have been explaining their proposals.

Voters are divided as to whether it is important to know who paid for campaign ads – 49% say it is important while 50% say it does not matter much. And for the most part, they say they have no difficulty determining who is paying for campaign ads. More than half (55%) say it easy to tell who paid for the ads while 32% say it is difficult.

The survey finds that levels of voter participation in the midterm campaign are on par with 2006. However, significantly more Republicans report contributing money to candidates than did so four years ago (18% vs. 11%). And more conservative Republicans (21%) say they have donated to a candidate this year than gave to any of the presidential candidates in 2008 (13%).

Overall, Democrats are about as likely to say they have donated money to a candidate as did so in 2006 (15% now, 13% then). But far fewer liberal Democrats say they have donated than gave to a presidential candidate in 2008 (20% now vs. 34% then).

Only about one-in-ten voters (11%) say they have attended a campaign event this year. But that figure rises to 17% among voters who say they agree with the Tea Party. Tea Party supporters are more likely than either Republicans (12%) or Democrats (9%) to say they have attended an event. And nearly three-in-ten (28%) of those who agree with the Tea Party say they have visited a candidate’s website or followed a candidate online, compared with 19% of registered voters generally.

Campaign Engagement

In the new survey, 55% of voters say they have given a lot of thought to the election, which is about the same as in October 2006 (54%), but much higher than levels in the three previous midterms.

Compared with 2006, more Republican voters report giving a lot of thought to the election (64% now vs. 50% then). The reverse is true among Democrats: 49% now say they are giving a lot of thought to the election, compared with 59% at about this point in the 2006 campaign. At the high end of the engagement spectrum are those who agree with the Tea Party movement, 80% of whom have given a lot of thought to the coming election.

Only a third (33%) of voters under age 30 have given a lot of thought to the campaign, which is comparable to 2006 and significantly less than among voters 30 and older (59%). This is the typical pattern for young people in midterms, and very much unlike their high level of engagement in the 2008 presidential campaign.

Reactions to Victory…or Defeat

While there are substantial differences between Republican and Democratic voters in overall engagement and enthusiasm at this point, both groups offer remarkably similar reactions to the possibility of their party winning – or losing – this November. When asked to describe in a word how they will feel if the Republican Party wins a majority in the House after the elections are over, Republican voters say they will feel hopeful, happy, relieved, and good. For the most part, these are the same kinds of words that Democrats volunteer to describe how they will feel if their party keeps its majority after the elections are over. One noticeable difference is that more Republicans than Democrats say the word hopeful best captures their feeling if their party has a majority after Election Day.

Reactions to defeat are also similar across party lines. By far, disappointed is the most common reaction each side expresses to the possibility of not winning a House majority this fall. A number of voters – on both sides – also say they will feel sad or bad. The words disgusted and depressed come up more frequently among Republican voters than among Democratic voters. Relatively few voters on either side express extreme reactions, such as devastated, scared or fearful. And, while it has been a common catchphrase in this election cycle, virtually no voters – Republican or Democratic – used the word angry to describe their reaction to the possibility that the other party will have the majority when this election is over.

Other Important Findings

•The Republicans’ advantage in 2010 is largely being driven by a swing in preferences among independent voters. Currently, likely independent voters favor the Republican candidate by 19 points (49% Republican vs. 30% Democrat). In November 2006, Democrats held a seven-point lead among likely independent voters.

•Anti-incumbent sentiment has remained high all year, and is substantially greater than in 2006, 2002 and 1998 and on par with levels in 1994.

•President Obama’s approval ratings among the public remain unchanged from early September; currently, 46% approve, while 45% disapprove. About as many voters say they think of their vote as a vote against Obama as a vote for him (30% vs. 27%). Four years ago, President Bush was more of a negative factor; just 20% said they were voting for him and 37% against him.

•Republicans hold a 12-point edge among likely voters in the most competitive districts in the nation, and have a bigger lead in safe Republican districts (27 points) than Democrats have in safe Democratic districts (10 points).

•Some signs of growing campaign interest among Democrats is consistent with the pattern in past midterm elections. Democratic engagement has increased as Election Day approached in every midterm since 1994, except in 2006 when Republican engagement surged in the campaign’s closing weeks.

In the upcoming midterm elections, two factors have emerged as major potential negatives for candidates: Fully 46% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported government loans to banks during the financial crisis two years ago, while nearly as many (42%) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate backed by Sarah Palin.

Far smaller percentages say they would be more likely to vote for candidates who had supported the major loans to financial institutions (13%) or had Palin campaign for them (15%). These evaluations have changed little since August.

By contrast, bringing home federal dollars continues to be viewed as a potential asset for a congressional candidate. About half (53%) say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who has a record of bringing government projects and money to their districts. Just 11% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who brought home federal money and projects.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted September 30-October 3 among 1,002 adults, finds further indications of anti-incumbent sentiment in this election year. About a quarter (26%) say they would be less likely to vote for an incumbent running for reelection while only about half as many (12%) say they would be more likely to support an incumbent; still, about half (53%) say this would make no difference in their vote either way.

The public continues to express more mixed views of other candidate traits and characteristics. About a third (32%) say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who is a supporter of the Tea Party movement, while 21% say they would be more likely to vote for such a candidate. And a third (33%) say they would be less likely, rather than more likely (24%), to favor a candidate for whom Barack Obama campaigns.

Americans are split over whether they are more likely to vote for candidates who supported the health care law enacted earlier this year; 35% say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation, while 36% say they would be more likely.

And the survey finds there is limited benefit to being a candidate who has never held elective office. About two-in-ten (21%) say this would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, 27% say less likely and nearly half (47%) say it would make no difference.

Divisions over Campaign Appearances by Obama, Palin

Just as in August, Republicans, Democrats and independents differ considerably about the impact of campaign appearances by Sarah Palin or Barack Obama – as well as a candidate’s affiliation with the Tea Party movement.

Nearly four-in-ten Republicans (38%) say campaign support from Palin would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, but 45% say it would make no difference. Just 12% say this would make them less likely to support a candidate.

Two-thirds of Democrats (67%) say a Palin appearance would make them less likely to vote for a candidate, up from 58% in August. By about four-to-one, more independents say Palin’s support would make them less likely to vote for a candidate than say it would make them more likely to do so (43% less likely, 11% more likely); 44% of independents say it would make no difference.

About half of Democrats (49%) say Obama’s campaign help would make them more likely to vote for a congressional candidate while just 10% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate (40% say it would make no difference). By contrast, Republicans view an Obama campaign stop as a considerable liability: 72% of Republicans say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate if Barack Obama campaigns on his or her behalf. This is up from 57% in early August.

Among independents, 44% say that Obama campaigning for a candidate would make no difference to their vote; 32% say it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate while just 20% say that it would make them more likely to support that candidate.

Support for the Tea Party is, on balance, viewed more positively by Republicans and more negatively by Democrats, while independents are divided. About four-in-ten Republicans (42%) say a candidate’s support for the Tea Party movement would make them more likely to vote for that candidate; just 9% say the Tea Party affiliation would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (39% say it would make no difference). Among conservative Republicans, a 54% majority say they are more likely to vote for a Tea Party supporter.

More than half of Democrats (54%) say Tea Party affiliation would make them less likely to vote for a candidate with just 8% saying it would make them more likely to do so. A plurality of independents (43%) say Tea Party support would make no difference in their vote, while 22% say this would make them more likely to vote for a candidate and 29% say it would make them less likely to do so.

Continuing Divides Over Contentious Votes

While partisans differ considerably in how they view the impact of a candidate’s support for the health care overhaul on their votes this fall, independents are more divided. Among Republicans, 72% say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supported the health care law enacted earlier this year; 15% say this will make no difference and 9% say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation. Two-thirds of Democrats (67%), meanwhile, say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the legislation, just 11% say less likely and 20% say this will make no difference. Among independents, about three-in-ten (29%) say they are more likely to vote for a candidate who supported the health care bill, while 37% say they are less likely to support that candidate, 31% say this issue will make no difference in their vote.

Majorities of Republicans (64%) and independents (52%) say they are less likely to vote for candidates who supported the major government loans made to banks in response to the 2008 financial crisis. Among Democrats, 31% say they are less likely to vote for candidates who supported the bank bailouts, while 21% say they are more likely to support these candidates; 44% say this will make no difference.

Impact of Incumbency, New Faces

Both Republicans and independents are divided about whether being new to electoral politics is an advantage or a disadvantage to congressional candidates this year; 26% of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for someone who has never held elective office, while about the same number (29%) say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who has never held elective office; 41% say this would not make a difference in their vote. Independents are similarly split (25% more likely, 21% less likely, 49% no difference).

While the plurality of Democrats (47%) say relative inexperience with electoral politics would not make a difference in their vote, by a ratio of more than two-to-one Democrats see relative newness as a hindrance rather than a help to candidates (35% less likely, 15% more likely).

Looking at the impact of incumbency, 37% of Republicans and 30% of independents say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who is an incumbent seeking re-election. Just 13% of Democrats agree. More than six-in-ten Democrats (63%) say incumbency will make no difference in their vote, compared with 44% of Republicans and 52% of independents.

Few Republicans (10%), Democrats (17%) or independents (11%) say they are more likely to vote
for a candidate because of incumbency.

More Continue to Say Earmarks a Benefit

By ratios of at least two-to-one, more Republicans, Democrats and independents say they are more likely, rather than less likely to vote for a candidate with a record of bringing government projects and money to their districts. About two-thirds of Democrats (68%) say they are more likely to vote for candidates with records of earmarking; 42% of Republicans and 51% of independents say the same. Relatively small numbers of each group say this would make them less likely to vote for a candidate (19% of Republicans, 14% of independents and 3% of Democrats.)

MOST SEE WASHINGTON DOMINATED BY PARTISAN CONFLICT

One month before the midterm elections, Americans offer harsh judgments on Republicans and Democrats in Washington with roughly three-quarters saying partisans have been bickering more than usual and approval ratings for leaders of both parties in Congress matching long-time lows.

The latest Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, sponsored by SHRM, conducted September 30-October 3 among 1,002 adults, finds that 77% say that Republicans and Democrats in Washington have been bickering and opposing one another more than usual. Just 8% say they have been working together more.

The percentage saying Republicans and Democrats have been bickering more than usual tops the 72% that said this in October 1995, when partisan fighting over the federal budget eventually lead to government shutdown. At that point, 21% said the parties were working together.

The public’s perceptions have worsened significantly since early last year. In January 2009, when asked about the prospect for bipartisanship in the coming year, fully 50% said they expected Republicans and Democrats to work together more while 39% said they expected increased partisan bickering. But by April 2009, the public was already gloomy about the state of partisan relations: just 25% said the parties were working together more than usual, while 53% said they were bickering and opposing one another more. Since then, assessments have worsened. Only about a third as many people now see the two parties cooperating as did so then.

There is widespread partisan agreement that Republicans and Democrats in Washington have been fighting more than usual. Currently, nearly equal percentages of Republicans (80%), Democrats (80%) and independents (78%) say that partisans in Washington are bickering and opposing one another more than usual.

Lower Ratings for Leaders of Both Parties in Congress

Job approval ratings for both Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress are down slightly from mid-summer. Though Republicans may be poised for major gains in the House and Senate in the midterm elections, just 24% of the public approves of the job being done by the party’s leaders in Congress.

That is down from 33% in July, and equals a low measured at about the same time last year. Disapproval stands at 60%, matching the number from one year ago. Shortly after Barack Obama took office in 2009, approval of Republican leaders stood at 34%.

Job performance ratings for Democratic leaders also have slipped since the start of the Obama administration (from 48% approval in February 2009 to 30% currently). In July, that rating stood at 35%. Still, going into the campaign’s final weeks Democrats’ approval ratings are modestly higher than the ratings for Republican leaders.

About six-in-ten Democrats (62%) and Republicans (57%) say they approve of their own party’s leaders, while few independents approve of either group. There is little change since July in the percentage of Republicans who approve of their leaders (60% then), but fewer Democrats than in July approve of their party’s leaders in Congress (74% in July vs. 62% now).

Currently, just 19% of independents say they approve of Republican leaders’ performance and 21% say they approve of Democratic leaders’ performance. In July, 26% of independents approved of the GOP leaders and 25% approved of Democratic leaders.

Nine-in-ten Republicans say they disapprove of the job being done by Democratic leaders in Congress, while 82% of Democrats disapprove of the job being done by GOP leaders. Among independents, 64% give a negative performance rating to the GOP leaders, while 60% disapprove of the job being done by Democratic leaders.

Views of Congressional Accomplishments

Public views of Congress’ accomplishments have changed little since June. Today, 36% say Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses, 37% say it has accomplished about as much and 20% say it has accomplished more.

The 36% of Americans who now say Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses is comparable to the proportions in both October 1994 (36%) and October 2006 (39%), when assessments of congressional accomplishments were relatively negative. However, the percentage of Americans who now say Congress has accomplished more than other recent Congresses (20%) is also relatively high compared to other past midterm cycles. Significantly more now say Congress has accomplished more than previous Congresses than did so in the fall of 1994 (10%), 2002 (11%) or 2006 (6%); in 1998, 24% said this.

Views of Congressional accomplishments differ considerably by party. A majority of Republicans (54%) say Congress has accomplished less than usual, 31% say its accomplishments are on par with other recent years, while just 9% say this Congress has accomplished more than most. By contrast, Democrats are more divided: 37% say Congress has accomplished about the same amount compared to other recent
Congresses, 33% say it has accomplished more than most, and just 24% say it has accomplished less than most.

In 2006, when Republicans controlled Congress, partisan assessments were the reverse; Democrats were substantially more likely than Republicans to say Congress had accomplished less than usual.

Republicans and Democrats also differ in their reasons for saying that Congress has accomplished less than usual. By about two-to-one, Republicans who think Congress has accomplished less say this is more because they think Congress has done the wrong things than because it has not done enough (36% vs. 15%). By contrast, most Democrats who say this Congress has accomplished less than usual say it is more because it has not done enough (18%) rather than because it has done the wrong things (5%).

Independents are about equally likely to say that Congress has accomplished less than usual (38%) as to say congressional accomplishments are about the same as usual (40%); 18% say Congress has accomplished more than usual. Those who say Congress has accomplished less are divided in their assessment of why (19% of independents say it is because Congress has done the wrong things, 16% say it is because Congress has not done enough).