As George W. Bush prepares to leave the White House, the United States is in many ways dramatically different from when he took the oath of office in 2001. His first few months as president were largely unremarkable, despite the contentious 2000 election. But the horrific terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 greatly altered the course forward.

The attacks transformed American public opinion and fundamentally reshaped Bush’s image. His job approval rating reached 86% by late September. The public expressed broad willingness to use military force to combat terrorism. But then controversies over the build-up to war in Iraq and other Bush policies started to take their toll – at home and abroad.

U.S. forces quickly ousted Saddam Hussein in 2003, but could not create a lasting peace. As the fighting dragged on, Bush won re-election by a narrow margin. In his second term, he failed in his bid to build support for a partial privatization of Social Security. American deaths continued in Iraq, the government bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached directly into the White House.

Soon, economic troubles started to mount, and in 2008, the economy went into a dangerous free fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets. The president’s approval ratings slid over time to historic lows. His approval last hit 50% as he started his second term. It stood at just 24% in early December.

Not surprisingly, the public’s verdict on the Bush presidency is overwhelmingly negative. In a December 2008 Pew Research Center survey, just 11% said Bush will be remembered as an outstanding or above average president – by far the lowest positive end-of-term rating for any of the past four presidents. Yet Bush’s impact on public opinion over the past eight years is seen in ways that go well beyond his personal unpopularity.

He helped shape the post-9/11 climate of opinion that was broadly accepting of a muscular approach to U.S. national security. And even after much of the public came to oppose the war in Iraq, there continued to be considerable support for the Bush doctrine of preemptive military action. In spite of the public’s shock over pictures of abuse of detainees at the U.S.-run Abu Ghraib prison, nearly half of Americans consistently said that the torture of terrorists to gain key information was at least sometimes justified.

In the final year of his presidency, even as his approval rating steadily declined to historic lows, most Americans continued to say Bush’s anti-terror policies deserve at least a fair amount of credit for preventing more terror attacks.

In his first term, Bush scored several early legislative successes on domestic issues – such as the No Child Left Behind education reform, two rounds of tax cuts and the launch of a significant Medicare drug plan.

But after those successes, the instances when Bush was able to mobilize – and maintain – public support for his agenda were rare. Even in the realm of national security, the public increasingly rejected the idea that a large military presence overseas would reduce the threat of terror at home.

Public backing for what was to have been Bush’s signature second-term achievement – reforming the Social Security system – withered within months of his reelection. His immigration reform proposal faced opposition within his own party, even though it was an issue – like Social Security – where Americans recognized major change was needed.

What might have damaged Bush’s legacy most was his administration’s mixed record of competent governance. Between Iraq, the government’s flawed relief effort in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and more minor missteps over the Dubai ports issue and other matters, the government “brand” deteriorated badly during the Bush years. In late April 2008, just 37% expressed a favorable view of the federal government, about half of the percentage of five years earlier (73%).

Final Judgments

In a Pew survey conducted Dec. 3-7 among 1,489 adults, the American public paints a harshly negative picture of Bush’s tenure. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say his administration will be remembered more for its failures than its accomplishments, and a plurality (34%) says Bush will go down in history as a poor president. Fully 68% say they disapprove of Bush’s performance and most of those – 53% of the public – say they disapprove strongly. That is the highest rate of strong disapproval measured by Pew surveys in Bush’s eight years in office.

As his second term ends, only 13% say Bush has made progress toward solving the major issues facing the country; 37% say he has made those problems worse and 34% say he has tried but failed in his efforts. Another 11% say he has not addressed the major problems facing the country.

More than three times as many people say Bush will go down in history as a poor president (34%) than said the same of Bill Clinton at the end of his presidency (11%). About a quarter (24%) say Bush will be seen as below average and close to three-in-ten (28%) say he will be seen as average. Just 11% say he will go down in history as above average or outstanding.

Not surprisingly, the most critical assessments come from Democrats. More than half (53%) say Bush will go down in history as a poor president, while 25% say he will be remembered as below average. More than four-in-ten Republicans (44%) say he will be remembered as an average president; 21% say below average and 6% say poor. Two-in-ten say he will be remembered as above average, while 7% say outstanding.

Americans by a wide margin (64% to 24%) also say that in the long run the failures of the Bush administration will outweigh its accomplishments. The assessment of Clinton in 2001, despite controversy over how he had conducted himself in office, was virtually a mirror image. Six-in-ten said the accomplishments would outweigh the failures, and 27% said the failures would outweigh the accomplishments.

Just over half (52%) of Republicans say the Bush administration will be best known for its accomplishments. That number is significantly smaller for independents (20%) and Democrats (8%). When Clinton was leaving office, his own party (77%) and independents (60%) were much more convinced he would be remembered for his accomplishments.

Second Term Approval Slide

Between the start of his second term and December 2008, Bush’s approval rating dropped from 50% to 24%, a level that rivals the historic lows recorded by Gallup for Harry S Truman as he left office in 1952. Declines came across demographic and political groups, though significant divides still exist among those with differing political ideologies.

Approval among moderate and liberal Republicans saw one of the sharpest drops – from 82% to 50%. Conservative Republican approval dropped from 94% to 66%. Independent approval started at below half in 2005 – 47% – but dropped to 18% by December 2008. The change among Democratic groups, already highly critical of Bush, proved less dramatic. Approval among conservative and moderate Democrats dropped from 22% t
o 8%, while approval among liberal Democrats dropped from 7% to 2%.

Bush’s approval dropped significantly among all education levels. In terms of age groups, the largest decline came among the youngest voters – those age 18-29. Within that group, approval dropped from 50% to 19%. The oldest group – age 65 and up – experienced a smaller decline, dropping from 47% to 26%.

A Legacy of War

When people are asked what they think Bush will be most remembered for after he leaves office, the most frequent responses volunteered are tied to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism. More than half (51%) of responses mention facets of the Global War on Terror, with close to three-in-ten (29%) specifically mentioning Iraq.

About 17% include specific negative assessments of Bush and his performance. Small percentages within that group refer to his competence (2%), his negative impact on the country (2%) or label him the “worst president” (2%). Another 13% refer to the impact of the Sept. 11 terror attacks, with 9% mentioning the attacks specifically and 3% noting that Bush had kept the country safe from major attack since that day. Another 12% mentions economic issues, including 7% who refer to the economy specifically, 4% who mention the current crisis and 3% referring to the recession. Another 4% offer positive assessments of Bush’s performance in office.

Meanwhile, concerns about Bush’s effectiveness are also seen in the one-word answers people give to describe their impressions of the president. In mid-2005, positive one-word descriptions outnumbered negative ones, but in more recent lists, the responses have been more negative. The most frequently mentioned description in the latest survey was “incompetent,” just as it was in February 2007 and March 2006. Many of the terms offered by respondents in the December 2008 survey are negative, though the second most frequently mentioned description was honest. Good and honorable also make the list.

The Global Outlook

On the foreign stage, a solid majority of Americans say the country is significantly less respected than in the past – and many of those people see that as a major problem. Many Americans are eager to turn inward to deal with this nation’s problems: fully 60% said in September 2008 that domestic policy should be the primary focus of the new president. And a greater percentage than before the Iraq war now say the best way to reduce the threat of terror is to reduce America’s military presence overseas, not increase it.

Meanwhile, a 2008 survey by the Pew Global Attitudes Project showed that majorities in 19 of the 24 nations – including several strong U.S. allies – had little confidence in Bush as he neared the end of his presidency. A 2007 survey of 45 nations found anti-American sentiment extensive as well as increasing disapproval for key elements of U.S. foreign policy.

And the image of the U.S. in the Muslim world remained abysmal. Iraq, the war on terrorism and American support for Israel continued to generate animosity in the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere. In many nations considered central to the war on terror, the general public deeply distrusted the United States. Even in countries like Kuwait that have long been considered relatively pro-American, the U.S. image had declined.

Among the few bright spots for Bush in the Global Attitudes surveys were the African nations that had benefited from administration programs to boost economic growth and reduce the spread of AIDS. In 2008, majorities in Tanzania and Nigeria expressed confidence in the president.

Still, Bush has had some success at home building support for tough tactics – including harsh interrogation policies for foreign detainees and government monitoring of phone calls or e-mails without warrants – to gather information about possible terrorists and stop potential attacks. On balance, more Americans say they worry that anti-terror policies have not gone far enough in protecting the United States than say they feel the anti-terror policies have “gone too far in restricting civil liberties.”

The Political Legacy

When Bush took office, Republicans controlled both Congress and the White House. But voter party preferences shifted significantly during Bush’s second term as missteps, bad news and scandals took their toll on Bush and GOP congressional leaders. In the 2006 midterm elections, more independents and moderates aligned themselves with the party out of power and Democrats took control of the House and the Senate.

In 2008, Bush was barely seen during the presidential campaign. Both Barack Obama and John McCain persistently criticized his administration, vowing to bring “change” to Washington. Obama’s significant win and additional Democratic gains in Congress signaled a continuing decline of the Republican Party under Bush.

In surveys conducted in the fall of 2008, 51% of all voters said they thought of themselves as Democrats or leaned toward the Democratic Party. That was up five points from 46% during the same period in 2004. Meanwhile, the number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party fell from 45% to 41%.

The greatest gains came among younger voters. Only among voters age 65 and older did the percentage identifying with the Democratic Party decrease – from 49% in 2004 to 47% in 2008. The percentage of voters age 18 to 29 identifying with the Democratic Party increased from 48% in the fall of 2004 to 61% in the fall of 2008. Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly two-to-one (61% to 32%) in this age group, up from only a seven-point advantage in 2004.

A week after the election, voters are feeling good about themselves, the presidential campaign and Barack Obama. Looking ahead, they have high expectations for the Obama administration, with two-thirds predicting that he will have a successful first term.

The quadrennial post-election survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds greater satisfaction with the choice of presidential candidates than after any election in the past 20 years. In addition, Obama gets by far the highest grades for any winning candidate in that period. The survey was conducted Nov. 6-9 among 1,500 voters reached by both landline and cell phone who were originally interviewed in mid-October.

Fully 75% of voters in the re-contact survey give Obama a letter grade of A or B for the way he conducted himself during the campaign, with 45% awarding Obama an A.
Voters also gave Bill Clinton high grades following his 1992 victory (64% A or B; 26% A). But Obama’s grades far surpass Clinton’s.

Voters applaud their own work on Nov. 4: 64% give themselves grades of A or B. Four years ago, 60% of voters gave themselves grades of A or B. The campaign itself also is highly rated: fully 85% say they learned enough about the candidates and the issues to make an informed choice. And nearly six-in-ten (57%) say there was more discussion of the issues compared with past elections; that is the highest percentage expressing this view since 1992 (59%).

The belief that Obama will have a successful first term is nearly universal among his own supporters (92%). Nearly four-in-ten of those who voted for McCain (39%) also believe that Obama will have a successful first term, while slightly more (45%) say he will be unsuccessful. After the 2004 election, far fewer supporters of John Kerry (26%) said they anticipated that Bush would have a successful second term.

A majority of all voters (52%) say that Obama’s election will lead to better race relations in the United States; 35% say the election will not affect race relations, while 9% say Obama’s election will make race relations worse. Fully three-quarters of African Americans expect race relations to improve as a result of Obama’s election. White voters, however, are evenly divided with about as many saying they expect race relations either to stay the same or get worse (47%) as say they will get better (49%).

Roughly three-quarters (74%) of all voters – including a solid majority of Republicans (56%) – say that GOP leaders should work with Obama to accomplish things, even it means disappointing some supporters; a comparable percentage (77%) says that Democratic leaders should work cooperatively with their Republican counterparts, even if it means disappointing their party’s supporters.

Notably, most voters (60%) say that Obama should appoint Republicans to serve in important positions in his administration; very few (4%) oppose an appointment from the opposing party, while 35% say it does not matter. As expected, support for an appointment of a member of the opposing party is widespread among Republicans (71%), but a narrow majority of Democrats (51%) also favor Obama choosing a Republican for a key administration post.

Despite the support for bipartisanship among members of both parties, the proportion of voters who say they expect relations between Republicans and Democrats to improve has increased only modestly. Fewer than four-in-ten (37%) say they expect relations between Republicans and Democrats to get better in the coming year, up from 29% following the 2006 midterm elections which resulted in divided government. Nearly all of the increased belief in improved relations has come among Democrats; slightly fewer Republicans believe that relations between the parties will get better than did so two years ago.

After a hard-fought election campaign, most Republican and Republican-leaning voters (63%) describe Obama as “inspiring.” Almost four-in-ten GOP voters (38%) say Obama makes them feel “hopeful,” and 36% say he makes them feel “proud.” In March, just 22% of registered voters who were Republicans or leaned toward the GOP said Obama made them feel proud. However, a large majority of Republican voters (72%) say the term “risky” describes the president elect.

As Republicans contemplate the party’s future, they are expressing support for a more conservative approach from GOP leaders. Six-in-ten Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they would like to see Republican leaders in Washington move in a more conservative direction; just 35% say they favor the party’s leaders pursuing a more moderate approach.

In part, this reflects the fundamentally conservative balance within the GOP electorate. Roughly two-thirds (68%) of Republican and Republican-leaning voters identify themselves as conservative, and three-quarters of these voters think the party should turn further to the right. While a majority of the moderates and liberals within the party advocate a centrist approach, they make up fewer than a third (31%) of Republican voters overall.

Democrats, by contrast, favor their leaders moving in a more moderate, rather than a more liberal, direction in the coming years. A 57% majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say the party’s leaders should move in a more moderate direction; just 33% say the party should pursue a more liberal course. A majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaners describe themselves as moderate or conservative ideologically, and 70% of these voters favor the party pursuing a more moderate agenda.

About a third of Democratic voters overall describe themselves as liberal, and most want the party to move further to the left. Nonetheless, while 56% of liberal Democrats favor the party moving in a more liberal direction, 34% say the party should move to the center. By contrast, conservative Republicans are far more unified in saying that their party’s leaders should turn to the right (74%), rather than the center (21%).

Election Reactions

Nearly six-in-ten voters (58%) say they are happy that Barack Obama was elected president. These opinions – as well as overall reactions to the election – are divided along partisan lines. Nearly all Democratic voters are happy that their party’s candidate won, while 75% of Republicans express unhappiness. Among independent voters, a majority says they are happy about Obama’s win (57%) and about a third (32%) says they are unhappy.

When voters are asked for a single word that describes their reaction to Obama’s victory, Obama supporters mentioned their joy over his triumph, with words like “happy,” “excited,” and “ecstatic” frequently used. A substantial number of Obama voters also mentioned the words “hope” or “hopeful” to characterize their reaction to the election.

McCain’s supporters generally expressed disappointment over the election outcome, although many said that they had anticipated his defeat. Indeed, more McCain voters said they were “not surprised” or used the word “expected,” than said they were surprised or shocked by the election result. Some McCain supporters also used the words “hope” and “hopeful” to describe their reaction to the election, while others expressed fear or apprehension.

Barack Obama holds a significant lead over John McCain in the final days of Campaign 2008. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 2,587 likely voters, conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, finds 49% supporting or leaning to Obama, compared with 42% for McCain; minor party candidates draw 2%, and 7% are undecided.

The survey finds indications that turnout may well be significantly higher than in 2004, when voting participation reached its highest point in nearly four decades. The new poll projects increased rates of voting among young people and African Americans, who strongly favor Obama. But it also finds signs of greater likely turnout across the board.

In the campaign’s final week, McCain is getting the boost that Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,995 registered voters to those most likely to vote. Among all registered voters, Obama leads by 50% to 39%. His lead had been 16 points among registered voters (52% to 36%) in Pew’s previous survey, conducted Oct. 23-26.

Pew’s final survey indicates that the remaining undecided vote breaks slightly in McCain’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Obama holds a 52% to 46% advantage, with 1% each going to Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 3,402 adults who were interviewed on landline and cell phones, finds that since mid-October, McCain has made gains among young voters, although they still favor Obama by a wide margin (by 61% to 36% among those ages 18 to 29). The Republican candidate has also made gains among political independents and middle-income voters. Obama still maintains a modest lead among independents, while middle-income voters are now evenly divided.

Obama holds a wide lead over John McCain among those who say they have already voted (32% of all likely voters) or say they plan to vote before Election Day (7%). However, it is not quite as large as it was a week ago. More significant, the race is about even among voters who plan to vote on Election Day: 46% support McCain while 45% favor Obama.

Both candidates hold sizable leads among their core constituent groups, including winning about nine-in-ten votes among their own partisans (90% of Democrats are voting for Obama, 89% of Republicans for McCain). Obama has strong support among blacks (89%-5%), Hispanics (62%-31%), young voters (61% to 36%), and lower-income voters (64%-29%). McCain has a large lead among white evangelical Protestants (71%-21%) and narrower advantages among whites (49%-42%) and married voters (50%-42%).

Significantly, Obama matches McCain or holds a narrow advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted Republican, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Aside from Obama’s six-point edge among independents (45%-39%), he is nearly even with McCain among white non-Hispanic Catholics (47% McCain, 45% Obama), suburban voters (47%-43%), and white women (47%-44%). For detailed demographic tables, including a profile of the likely electorate,see complete report PDF.

Notably, a much greater share of Obama supporters continue to say they are supporting him strongly, compared with McCain supporters. Among likely voters, 36% favor Obama strongly, while 13% say they support him only moderately. Only about a quarter of likely voters support McCain strongly (24%), compared with 18% who favor him only moderately. In most recent elections where there has been an imbalance in intensity of support, the candidate with the greater share of strong support has gone on to victory.

Campaign Contacts

With Election Day approaching, many more voters say they have been contacted by the campaigns – primarily through mailings and pre-recorded telephone calls – than said so in mid-October. That is especially true for those in the battleground states. Nationwide, six-in-ten voters say that have received mail from the campaigns, up 14 points from the survey conducted Oct. 16-19. In the contested battleground states, 76% now say they have received campaign mailings, also up 14 points from mid-October.

Campaign mail remains the most common form of direct contact, but an increasing number of voters also say they are receiving pre-recorded telephone calls or “robo-calls.” Nationally, the proportion of voters saying they have received robo-calls is up 10 points since mid-October (from 37% to 47%). In the battleground states, nearly six-in-ten (59%) now say they have received a pre-recorded campaign call, compared with 52% in mid-October.

Among voters who have received robo-calls, nearly two-thirds (65%) say they usually hang up on such calls; just 30% say they usually listen. Nonetheless, voters who hang up on campaign robo-calls tend to treat them as only a minor annoyance. Half of all voters who receive robo-calls say they are a minor annoyance, while just 13% say the calls make them angry. Independent voters are more likely than Democrats or Republicans to say they hang up on robo-calls, and are about as likely as Democrats to say these calls make them angry.

Among all registered voters, 27% say they have received a personal call about the campaign and 14% say they have been visited at home by someone talking about the campaign. Meanwhile, in the battleground states, more than a third of voters (36%) say they have received a personal call about the campaign, while nearly a quarter (23%) say they have been visited at home by someone talking about the campaign.

McCain Voters Get More Robo-Calls

Nationwide, slightly more McCain supporters say they have received campaign mail than Obama supporters (63% vs. 57%).

In addition, more McCain supporters than Obama supporters (54% vs. 41%) say they have received pre-recorded calls. Meanwhile, more Obama supporters than McCain supporters say they have been visited at home (18% vs. 10%) by someone talking about the campaign. Identical percentages of both candidates’ supporters (27% each) say they have received a personal call about the campaign.

Twice as many Obama voters as McCain supporters (16% vs. 8%) say they have attended a campaign event. However, equal percentages of Obama and McCain supporters (18%) say they have donated money to any of the presidential candidates during the campaign. In mid-October, slightly more Obama supporters (19%) than McCain supporters (12%) said they donated to a candidate.

Email Less Common than Snail Mail

Overall, 28% of voters say they have received emails from the campaigns or political organizations. That is slightly less than half the percentage of voters who report receiving mail about one or more of the candidates (60%).

Not surprisingly, more younger voters than older voters say they have received emails from the campaigns or political organizations. Still, somewhat more voters age 18 to 29 say they have received mail about one or more of the candidates than say they have received emails about the candidates or campaigns from groups or political organizations (33%).