But in most of the country, the 2004 race wasn’t even close to being close. A Pew Research Center analysis shows that in the majority of the nation’s 3,153 counties, the election was a landslide — with either Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry winning by a margin of at least 20 percentage points.

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Although former Vermont governor Howard Dean failed to win the Democratic presidential nomination, his campaign left a strong imprint on the political world. It assembled a network of over a half-million active supporters and contributors, raised over $20 million in mostly small donations online, and demonstrated the power of the internet as a networking and mobilizing tool in politics.

Who are the internet activists ­ the people widely known as “Deaniacs” ­ who joined the Dean campaign as it slowly grew from asterisk status in early 2003 polls to the frontrunner position at the beginning of 2004? A new Pew survey provides the first detailed look at the cyber-soldiers of this pioneering campaign. An internet survey with a random sample of 11,568 activists drawn from the online database of those who had contributed money or otherwise worked on behalf of Gov. Dean provides insight into who they are, why they joined, how they reacted to Dean’s loss and President Bush’s reelection, and what they think about the future of the Democratic Party.¹

The survey was conducted in two waves: one before the election (Sept. 13-Oct. 12), and a second after the election (Nov.18-Dec. 14).

As expected, a key rallying point for Dean activists was their shared opposition to the war in Iraq. Two-thirds cited the war as the most important factor in their decision to join the campaign. The perceptions that Dean was willing to speak unpopular truths and would change the direction of country were also strong unifying factors. However, the study’s findings belie the popular image of Dean activists as largely young and drawn from college campuses. Instead, the group’s overall age distribution is fairly close to that of Democrats in the general public.

But Dean activists are far wealthier, better educated, more secular and much less ethnically diverse than other Democrats. A disproportionate number of Dean activists are white, well-educated Baby Boomers ­ fully a third are college graduates between the ages of 45 and 64, compared with just 9% of Democrats in the general public. But the image of younger Deaniacs as political newcomers has been borne out. For more than four-in-ten (42%) Dean activists ­ and two-thirds of those under age 30 ­ the Dean campaign represented their first foray into active presidential politics. And among those who were political veterans, a sizable number (36%) said they were more engaged this time than in previous campaigns.

The survey also finds that Dean’s supporters were not discouraged by his campaign’s demise or Kerry’s general election loss, but instead constitute an engaged group of citizens who intend to remain active in the Democratic Party and exert significant influence over its future direction. After Dean dropped out of the race, most worked hard on behalf of Kerry (66% donated money to Kerry) and virtually all of them (97%) voted for him. Half (51%) say that Bush’s reelection motivates them to be even more politically active in the future.

In many respects, Dean activists resemble other political activists on the left and right. They are more interested and engaged in politics, more ideological, and better educated than the average citizen or their fellow partisans. But they are distinctive in one key respect: As befits a campaign that largely established its identity on the internet, the Dean activists are highly internet-savvy; more than three-quarters (77%) said they go online several times per day and 83% have been using the internet for more than five years.²

Compared with Democrats in the general public, the Dean activists are much more liberal across a range of issues, more dissatisfied with President Bush and with the direction of the country. Their liberalism stands out even when compared with delegates to the 2004 Democratic convention, who themselves were significantly more liberal than rank-and-file Democrats. Roughly eight-in-ten Dean activists (82%) describe themselves as liberal, compared with 41% of the convention delegates and 27% of national Democrats.

The activists are critical of the Democratic Party in a number of respects. Most do not think the party has done well in standing up for its traditional constituencies or for liberal positions. Two-thirds (67%) want the party to change to better reflect liberal and progressive values. By contrast, a majority of members of the Democratic National Committee (52%) said in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey in February 2005 that they want the party to move in a moderate direction.

Most activists say a new third party would be a good thing, but voice little enthusiasm for actually abandoning the Democratic Party. The activists are divided about how progressive and liberal causes can best be advanced: 38% think the Democratic Party is best able to do this, but an equal number say privately funded advocacy groups are best (36%). Just 13% think a new political party is preferable. And most believe George Soros and other wealthy liberal philanthropists helped the party and progressive causes in general.

Dean activists were motivated by an intense disapproval of President Bush’s job performance (96% strongly disapproved) and by strong opinions on the issues, especially the war in Iraq. They also support gay marriage by more than ten-to-one (91%-8%); half of national Democrats (50%) oppose gay marriage. The activists were attracted to Howard Dean in large part because they believed that he would stand up to Bush and give voice to views widely considered unpopular. Many also believed that he was the best candidate to bring about change inside the Democratic Party.

The war in Iraq was not the only important issue in the activists’ decision to support Dean. One third (34%) said health care was important, and about one-fourth (24%) cited fiscal responsibility; both were issues Dean had championed as governor of Vermont.

Although nearly all Dean activists believe that the decision to invade Iraq was wrong, they are divided on the question of what to do now. Compared with national Democrats, the Dean supporters are actually more supportive of keeping troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized (44% said this, compared with 33% of Democrats in August 2004).

On other questions related to national security, there are far fewer hawks among the Dean activists than among Democrats nationally. Only about one-in-five Dean activists (19%) say military force is often or sometimes justified against countries that may seriously threaten the U.S. but have not yet attacked, compared with 44% of all Democrats. Just 21% of the activists (and 20% of Democrats nationally) would entirely rule out such preemptive military action.

In addition, the activists are much more supportive of giving strong consideration to the interests of U.S. allies than are Democrats generally. More than three-quarters of Dean activists (78%) say U.S. foreign policy should strongly take into account allied interests. A plurality of Democrats (49%) agree, with 38% backing a policy based mostly on U.S. national interests.

While the Dean campaign drew an amalgam of 1960s liberals and 21st century progressives, there are intriguing generational differences on the war and social issues. Those under age 30 tend to be much more supportive of gay rights, with 71% strongly favoring legalizing gay marriage (compared with 46% among those 50 and older). They also are much more apt to mention gay and lesbian issues as a key reason they joined the campaign (21% vs. 4%).

On military matters, the older activists who came of age in the 1960s are significantly less supportive of keeping troops in Iraq (34%, vs. 61% among the younger group), and less likely to say that the use of pre-
emptive military force is sometimes justifiable (13% vs. 31%).

Other Findings

Dean activists are heavy news consumers and rely on a wide array of sources ­ the web, newspapers, radio and, to a lesser extent, TV. Nearly as many say they regularly get news from the network and cable news websites as from the news broadcasts themselves. And 58% say they regularly listen to NPR, compared with just 16% of the general public.

The Dean campaign formed the basis for an extensive ­ and enduring ­ social network. Fully 71% of the activists say they met someone in person or online through the campaign, and 45% still keep in touch with a campaign contact. But most activists say they were drawn to the campaign because of politics and the issues, and not mainly by the prospect of forming relationships with people who shared their values.

The activists remain committed to the Democratic Party, even if some are reluctant supporters. They are clearly dissatisfied with party leaders: 80% of the activists say Democratic leaders supported the war in Iraq because they were afraid to stand up to the president.

Nine-in-ten Dean activists blame Dean’s loss in the primaries on “negative news coverage.” Many also pointed to perceptions that Dean was not electable (73%). While a third blamed Dean’s campaign performance, just 19% pointed to Dean’s policy stances as a reason he lost.

The activists overwhelmingly think of themselves as progressives (90%) and most describe themselves as patriots (80%). More than half (55%) call themselves fiscal conservatives.

Guide to the Report

The first section of this report, which begins on p. 7, covers the attitudes of Dean activists toward the Democratic Party and the future of progressive politics. Section II, which starts on p. 12, covers the activists’ feelings about the Dean campaign. Section III, which provides a detailed look at the activists’ internet activities and news consumption, begins on p. 20. And Section IV (p. 26) looks more closely at the activists’ political values and attitudes. A description of the study’s methodology begins on p. 31.

Six weeks after President Bush’s victory, the divisions that were so apparent in the election show no signs of narrowing. The public remains split over the president’s job performance, the situation in Iraq, and the state of the national economy. But Bush voters are upbeat on all three questions ­ 92% approve of the president’s job performance; 79% say the war effort is going well; and 58% give thumbs up on the economy. Those who voted for John Kerry are dramatically more negative, while those who did not vote fall between the two extremes.

While partisans continue to see the world through different lenses, the public appears less engaged with national and international news than it did prior to the election. In particular, the percentage following news about Iraq very closely has fallen to 34%, well below levels of engagement recorded over the last 12 months. Further, just 16% reported paying very close attention to the debate over revamping the nation’s intelligence system, while 10% focused closely on the contested election in Ukraine.

Recent stories about sports ­ revelations of steroid use in major league baseball and a brawl between NBA players and fans ­ as well as Scott Peterson’s murder conviction all drew more interest than reports on intelligence reform or the Ukraine crisis. Interest in the sports scandals and the Peterson case was on par with similar stories in the past.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 1-16 among 2,000 Americans, finds a continuing decline in public perceptions of the situation in Iraq. Just half see the military effort in Iraq going very or fairly well, while nearly as many (46%) say things are not going well. A year ago, following the capture of Saddam Hussein, 75% said things were going well in Iraq, while just 22% saw the situation in negative terms. Public perceptions of the situation in Iraq were this low only for a short period following the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and the highly publicized murders of U.S. civilian contractors in Fallujah last April.

Interest in the situation in Iraq also has declined. In October, before the election, 42% of Americans said they were tracking the situation in Iraq very closely; in the current survey, that number has dropped to 34%, with attention down among both Democrats and Republicans.

Americans continue to be divided over whether taking military action in Iraq was the right or wrong decision. Despite the more negative perceptions of progress in Iraq, however, a 56% majority continues to say that the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized. That number has stayed fairly steady all year.

The president’s job approval rating has risen slightly since the election ­ currently 48% approve of his performance, up from 44% in mid-October. Overall presidential approval also has remained fairly stable over the past 10 months. But intensity of feelings about the president have increased slightly over the past year, mostly among those who disagree with him. The proportion who say they “very strongly” disapprove of the president’s job performance has risen from 30% to 35% from last November.

Only about four-in-ten Americans (39%) express satisfaction with national conditions, while 54% are dissatisfied. Satisfaction with the state of the nation has been below 40% since last January, hitting a low for the year at 33% in May. More than eight-in-ten Kerry voters (85%) say they are dissatisfied with the state of the nation, while just 10% are satisfied. Bush voters are overwhelmingly satisfied (71%), but a sizable minority (22%) have a negative view of national conditions. By 53%-40%, more non-voters say they are dissatisfied with the state of the nation.

While public interest is dipping, most Americans show at least some basic knowledge of what is happening in Iraq. Asked whether Iraq is scheduled to hold its first elections this winter, sometime in the spring or later this summer, fully 57% answered correctly that the elections will take place in winter (late January). And 43% of Americans were able to name Condoleezza Rice as Bush’s selection to replace Colin Powell as the next Secretary of State.

News Interest Index

Though attention to news from Iraq has decreased substantially, it tops this month’s list of major news items and, in a review of stories over the past year, Iraq news ranks second only to news about high gasoline prices in terms of the year’s most closely followed stories.

Just under a quarter of Americans (24%) closely followed the fistfight between players and fans at an NBA game and about the same number (22%) tracked reports on steroid use by some major leaguers very closely. One-in-five (215) say they very closely followed news about Scott Peterson’s conviction for the murder of his wife Laci. Both sports stories were followed much more closely by men than by women, while women payed more attention to the outcome of the Peterson trial.

Two major foreign news stories ­ the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and controversy over the results of the recent election in Ukraine were followed very closely by just 18% and 10%, respectively. Education is a major factor in interest in foreign news ­ 29% of Americans who have some post-graduate education closely followed news about Arafat’s death, almost twice the rate of those with no college education. Even so, just 19% of the post-graduate group followed the Ukraine election controversy very closely, though this again is roughly double the interest expressed by those with less education. By contrast, the Peterson verdict drew greater interest among those without a college education (25% very closely) than by those with post-graduate education (6%).

Gas Prices Top Story in ’04

News reports on high gasoline prices typically draw broad public attention, and that proved the case again this year. In October, 64% of Americans followed reports on gas prices very closely, making it the year’s top story in terms of public interest.

The situation in Iraq, which dominated the news last year, was the second-rated story in 2004 (54% very closely in May). But several specific developments in Iraq ­ including the failure to find weapons of mass destruction (37% very closely), and the prison abuse scandal (34% very closely) ­ also drew significant attention.

The series of hurricanes that struck the U.S. in late summer attracted strong interest from about half of Americans (52%). About the same number (48%) closely followed the massacre of scores of Russian schoolchildren by Chechen rebels, making it the top international story aside from the war in Iraq. The shortage of flu vaccines garnered very close attention from 44%, and four-in-ten followed reports about Ronald Reagan’s death and memorial services very closely.

Election News a Big Draw

Public interest in news about the 2004 election campaign was much higher than in 2000 or 1996. The percent following election news very closely rose from 14% in January to 46% in mid-October, two weeks before election day. When the analysis is limited to registered voters, fully 54% were following election news very closely by mid-October, up from 40% at a comparable point in the 2000 campaign, and just 34% in the days leading up to election day 1996. In recent years, only the 1992 election garnered as much public attention as the 2004 race.

Voters who say they attend church at least once a week backed Bush at the same high rates as in 2000. But he made inroads among those who seldom if ever attend religious services, although John Kerry maintained a sizable advantage among these voters.

Trends in the religious vote in this election defied the conventional wisdom in other ways as well. Bush’s support among white evangelical Protestants, already quite substantial, increased markedly from its 2000 level. However, there is no evidence that evangelicals comprised a larger share of the vote this year.

Moreover, while Bush drew more support from evangelicals, he increased his share of the vote among other religious denominations as well. Bush fared better among Jews and Catholics ­ especially Catholics who do not attend church frequently ­ than he did in 2000.

Bush Gained Among Evangelicals

According to the National Election Pool exit poll, Bush received 78% of the vote among white evangelicals, up 10% from 2000, according to Pew’s final pre-election poll that year. (The 2004 exit poll cannot be directly compared with the exit poll in 2000, which did not include a measure of evangelical identification).

Although voter turnout was up generally in 2004, there is no indication that white evangelicals boosted their level of participation more than other groups in the population. According to a comparison of exit polls and Pew surveys in 2000 and 2004, white evangelicals constituted the same percentage of the electorate in both years: 23%. Overall, there was remarkable stability from 2000 to 2004 in the religious composition of the electorate. The size of other religious groups, and the balance of frequent churchgoers and those who attend infrequently was nearly identical in the two election years.

Still, the election underscored the importance of white evangelical voters to the GOP. In 2004, they constituted 36% of Bush voters. By comparison, African-Americans ­ the most loyal of Democratic constituencies ­ constituted only about one-fifth (21%) of Kerry’s voters.

But Others As Well

President Bush increased his share of the Catholic vote by five percentage points (52% in 2004, vs. 47% in 2000). His gain among white, non-Hispanic Catholics was four points (52% to 56%).

But the similar size of Bush’s gains among Catholics and his gains among other groups suggest that the impact of conservative bishops who spoke out against John Kerry was relatively limited. During the campaign, several Roman Catholic bishops vowed to deny Communion to lawmakers who support abortion rights. But voter support for Bush increased slightly less (three points) among Catholics who are regular churchgoers, and thus who might be more apt to hear about and be influenced by the bishops’ appeal, than among those who attend less frequently (up seven points). Indeed, a Pew poll in August found widespread disapproval of the bishops’ action among Catholics, with 72% of Catholics saying that it was inappropriate.

Bush also registered a larger-than-average gain among Jews, winning 25% of the vote ­ up from 19% in 2000. In the key swing state of Florida, he received 20% of the Jewish vote, up from 12% four years ago.

Kerry registered significant gains relative to Al Gore’s performance among two groups: seculars and those who do not identify with the major Christian or Jewish traditions. Kerry received 74% of the vote among those who identify themselves as something other than Christian or Jewish, up by 12 points from Gore’s total in 2000. And 67% of seculars voted for Kerry, compared with 61% who voted for Gore. Bush’s share among the seculars was about the same in 2000 and 2004, but in 2000 7% of seculars voted for Nader. This year only 1% did so.

Conservative Turnout Rises

The electorate of 2004 was more Republican and conservative than the electorate of 2000, with Republicans matching Democrats 37%-37% this year (compared with 39% Democrat, 35% Republican in 2000), and the percentage of self-identified conservatives rising four points (from 30% to 34%).

Conservative gains were about the same among less frequent churchgoers (up 2%) as among those who attend church at least once a week (up 1%). Similarly, turnout among Republicans who do not attend church weekly was up at least as much as among those who go less often.

Evangelicals Trend More RepublicanThe rising political clout of evangelical Christians is not the result of growth in their numbers but rather their increasing cohesiveness as a key element of the Republican Party. The percentage of the population who are white evangelicals has changed very little (19% in 1987; 23% now) and what growth there was occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

However, in 1987, white evangelical Protestants were divided in their partisan attachments, with 34% identifying as Republicans and 29% as Democrats. Today, Republicans outnumber Democrats within this group by more than two-to-one (48%-23%).

This shift toward Republican identification among white evangelicals came in two stages. In the late 1980s, white evangelicals in the South were still mostly wedded to the Democratic Party while evangelicals outside the South were more aligned with the GOP. But over the course of the next decade or so, the GOP made gains among white Southerners generally ­ and evangelicals in particular ­ virtually eliminating this regional disparity.

The second stage began in 2000, coinciding with Bush’s election. Since then, there has been rapid growth in Republican identification among both Southern and non-Southern evangelicals. Nationwide, Republican identification among white evangelicals increased from 39% in 1999 to 48% today. In 2004, white evangelicals made up 23% of the population, and 37% of the Republican Party.

Bush Voters: Faith Matters, Leadership Matters More

Bush voters placed much more emphasis on a candidate’s religious faith than did Kerry supporters. Among those who voted for Bush, 14% cited a candidate’s “strong religious faith” as the single most important quality in their vote; just 1% of Kerry supporters cited that as a major factor in their vote.

Nonetheless, significantly more of Bush’s supporters mentioned leadership (29%) and a clear stance on the issues (27%) as the candidate qualities that mattered most. In addition, a candidate’s honesty was mentioned about as often as personal faith as a major factor for Bush’s supporters.

For Kerry supporters, by contrast, the desire for change trumped all other candidate qualities. Nearly half (47%) cited that as the most important factor; far fewer cited a candidate’s empathy (14%) and intelligence (13%) as the qualities that mattered most in their vote.

About the Analysis:

The data for this analysis are drawn from the 2000 VNS and 2004 NEP Exit Polls with one important exception. While the 2004 NEP Exit Poll included a measure of evangelical identification (“Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?” [Yes, No]), the 2000 VNS Exit Poll did not include this question. As a result, trends are drawn from the Pew Research Center’s November 2000 election weekend survey of 1,677 likely voters conducted November 1-5, 2000, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Results of the 2004 Pew Research Center election weekend survey of likely voters are consistent with the 2004 NEP exit poll figures shown here for both the number of the evangelical Christian voting and the proportion voting for George W. Bush.

Follow the Data. The campaign showed the dangers of making a priori judgments about voter opinion. This concern arose, most notably, with the practice of weighting polling data to meet predetermined parameters of party identification. Until recently, this approach has been mostly used by partisan pollsters but it also has been adopted by some media polling organizations.

As we noted in an earlier commentary, weighting results on the basis of party in the same manner that pollsters weight data to meet demographic parameters is misguided for a number of reasons (see “Party Affiliation: What It Is and What It Isn’t,” Sept. 23, 2004). It represents a fundamental misreading of party identification, which is an attitude that changes over time and not a demographic characteristic.

The election exit poll underscored the problems inherent in weighting by party. According to the exit poll, the electorate had equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats (37% each). That represents a change from the past three presidential elections, when Democrats held a slight edge in party identification. Consequently, pre-election surveys that adjusted the partisan composition of likely voters to the exit poll results from 2000 would have misrepresented the partisan make-up of the actual electorate.

Follow the Data (Part II). Among the staples of conventional wisdom in this campaign was that, in an incumbent election, voters who are undecided in the late stages of the race break overwhelmingly against the incumbent. Historically, this so-called ‘incumbent rule’ has proven to be predictive.

But this year’s exit poll showed that Kerry had only a modest advantage among the late deciders. Among those who decided in the final three days before the election, Kerry led by 53%-44%. That was a far cry from what many analysts and pundits had predicted. Pew’s analysis of undecided voters for its final pre-election estimate which was based on statistical modeling and follow-up questioning of the undecideds predicted they would break about evenly with a small advantage for Kerry.

This proved more reliable than history in gauging their intentions. There is no doubt, however, that predicting the vote among the undecideds and estimating the final outcome are among the most formidable challenges confronting pollsters.

Cross-Pressured Voters Are Hard to Read. The national polls were fairly stable during the summer, with most showing the race about even or Kerry with a slight to modest lead. But in the wake of the GOP’s successful convention in late August, voter opinion was less stable and much harder to track. Similarly, the polls fluctuated after the three presidential debates; most polls showed Bush with a lead, though they differed over its size.

Much of the movement in the polls came among cross-pressured swing voters. These voters, who still comprised about 14% of the electorate in Pew’s final pre-election survey, were not happy with the president yet still could not comfortably support Kerry. And they wreaked havoc with the polls, as Pew Research Center Director Andrew Kohut observed in the New York Times (Oct. 21, 2004):

“The round of national surveys taken after the third presidential debate indicates that the polls are not going to give us a clear picture of who will win the election until the final days of the campaign, if then. This is not because polling no longer works it’s because voter opinion is highly unstable.”

This turned out to be the case. Pew and Gallup had similar pre-election results before making their final estimates Pew showed Bush with a three-point lead among likely voters (48%-45%), while Gallup had Bush up by two points (49%-47%). The CBS News/New York Times survey also showed Bush with a slight 49%-47% advantage.

Although the three polls ended up in pretty much the same place, they all got there differently. The Pew survey showed Bush gaining some ground since mid-October, while Gallup showed Kerry gaining over the same period. The CBS News/New York Times survey showed voter opinion as more stable. Consequently, one could draw very different conclusions about the direction of the race by looking at these polls over the last few weeks of the campaign.

State Polls: Helpful But… The number of horse race polls has been rising for the past several elections, and this year brought an increasing number of polls in the battleground states. Facing a difficult political terrain by definition, all of these states were closely divided the state surveys had varying degrees of success.

In Michigan, for instance, most of the final week polls showed Kerry with a slight advantage. Of the six polls conducted between Oct. 25 and Nov. 1, the website RealClear Politics found that, on average, they showed Kerry with a 3.5% lead; Kerry won Michigan 51%-48%.

By contrast, the polls did not fare nearly as well in Florida, which Bush won by a fairly comfortable margin (52%-47%). Four polls conducted in the campaign’s final weeks had Bush ahead anywhere from a point to as many as eight points; three others showed Kerry leading, with Fox News showing Kerry with a five-point advantage. The main shortcoming of the state polls is that typically they have small samples. But even some that had sizable samples missed the mark in Florida. The highly diverse make-up of the Florida electorate may present special challenges to polling.

Cell Phones: Not a Major Problem Yet. Throughout the campaign, pollsters were frequently asked about the potential bias created by the fact that cell phones are not reached in telephone surveys. A growing number of people, especially young people, are believed to be relying solely on cell phones for phone service.

The exit polls indicated that approximately 7% of all voters are cell phone-only; this group skews heavily toward younger voters, with about half of them (48%) falling under age 30. But although cell-only voters were somewhat more Democratic than the electorate as a whole, the difference was relatively small. Cell-only voters went for Kerry by a margin of 54% to 45%, compared with Bush’s 51%-48% advantage among all voters. This difference, and the relatively small size of the cell-only group, was not large enough to create an error in pre-election poll estimates.

Moreover, young voters with and without cell phones were virtually identical politically, suggesting that young people reachable by conventional land-line service remain representative of their cell-only counterparts. About one-in-five (19%) voters under 30 years of age indicated they relied solely on cell phone service. These voters favored Kerry by 58%-41%, close to the advantage he had among the rest of this age cohort (56%-43%).

Campaign 2004 receives generally favorable marks from the voters. An overwhelming 86% say they learned enough about the candidates to make an informed choice, while two-thirds express satisfaction with the choice of candidates. However, voters also believe this campaign was more negative than previous contests ­ 72% say there was more mud-slinging in this campaign compared with past elections, up from just 34% who said that four years ago.

The Pew Research Center’s quadrennial post-election survey, conducted among 1,209 voters who were originally interviewed in October, finds that a third of all voters say they are very satisfied with their choice of candidates ­ the highest percentage expressing that view in post-election surveys dating to 1988. That reflects extraordinary enthusiasm among Republicans, 63% of whom express a high degree of satisfaction with the candidates. As a point of comparison, in 1996 just 34% of Democrats said they were very satisfied with the candidates after Bill Clinton’s easy reelection victory.

For their part, supporters of Sen. John Kerry are struggling with a range of emotions following their candidate’s defeat. The dominant reaction to Bush’s reelection among Kerry’s supporters is disappointment (82%), but about a third (35%) say they feel angry over the election outcome. Liberals, in particular, express intense feelings as a result of the election. Roughly half of Kerry’s liberal supporters say they feel angry (53%) or depressed (47%) because of Bush’s victory.

In contrast, large majorities of Bush voters say they feel reassured, relieved and safer as a consequence of the president’s reelection. However, while 72% of Bush’s conservative supporters say they feel a sense of excitement as a result of Bush’s win, just 48% of moderate and liberal Republicans share that sentiment.

Most voters (61%) believe that Bush’s second term will be successful. While this opinion is nearly universal among Republicans, most independents (58%) and a sizable minority of Democrats (30%) also thinks that Bush’s second term will be a success. However, by 52%-42%, Democrats favor the party’s leaders standing up to the GOP, rather than working with Republicans if that means disappointing some Democratic groups.

The survey findings parallel exit poll results showing that moral values is a top-tier issue for voters. But the relative importance of moral values depends greatly on how the question is framed. The post-election survey finds that, when moral values is pitted against issues like Iraq and terrorism, a plurality (27%) cites moral values as most important to their vote. But when a separate group of voters was asked to name ­ in their own words ­ the most important factor in their vote, significantly fewer (14%) mentioned moral values. Regardless of how the question is asked, the survey shows that moral values is the most frequently cited issue for Bush voters, but is seldom mentioned by Kerry voters.

In addition, those who cite moral values as a major factor offer varying interpretations of the concept. More than four-in-ten (44%) of those who chose moral values as the most important factor in their vote from the list of issues say the term relates to specific concerns over social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. However, others did not cite specific policy issues, and instead pointed to factors like the candidates’ personal qualities or made general allusions to religion and values.

The survey shows that both parties were successful in reaching their voters, which led to a substantial rise in turnout this year. Fully 64% of all voters say they were contacted by the Bush and Kerry campaigns or other groups by phone, in person, or by email. More than half (55%) were contacted by telephone, significantly more than in 2000 (42%). In the end, neither side gained the upper hand in reaching voters ­ as many say they were contacted by Kerry and his supporters as by Bush and his supporters.

With little fanfare, the Internet has broken through as a major source of campaign news in 2004. Overall, 41% voters say they got at least some of their news about the 2004 election online. Further, 21% relied on the Internet for most of their election news ­ nearly double the number in 2000 (11%).

Bush, Kerry Voters Agree ­ Campaign More Negative

Throughout the campaign, voters consistently said they thought the election was informative, and this remains the case today. More than eight-in-ten voters (86%) say they learned enough about the candidates and the issues to make an informed choice. That is about the same as in 2000 (83%) and far higher than in prior campaigns.

But there also has been a dramatic increase in perceptions that the campaign was excessively negative. Fully 72% say there was more mud-slinging or negative campaigning in this election compared with previous campaigns. That is more than double the percentage who expressed this opinion in the post-election survey four years ago (34%).

While the electorate is deeply divided on many issues, the sense that the campaign was more negative is shared by comparable numbers of Kerry voters (74%) and Bush voters (70%). This perception is widely shared across the demographic spectrum.

Grading the Campaign

When voters are asked to grade various players in the campaign, they award the highest grades to themselves. More than six-in-ten (64%) give “the voters” a grade of A or B for the job they did this year, up slightly from 60% in 2000. A 56% majority gives Bush an A or B, while 47% grade Kerry at A or B. Bush’s grade is about the same as the mark Clinton received following his reelection in 1996. Kerry’s grade is relatively high for a losing candidate.

Just 37% give the Democratic Party and A or B. That represents a sharp decline from 2000 (49%), although it is important to note that the post-election survey in 2000 was conducted before the election result was known. The Democratic Party’s rating is about the same as it was in 1988, after Michael Dukakis’s loss to George Bush Sr. (34% A or B).

Roughly half of voters (48%) give campaign consultants a grade of A or B, a modest increase from 2000 (43%). Pollsters have a much better image now than during the overtime election of four years ago, when there was considerable frustration with erroneous calls on election night. Currently, 45% give pollsters a grade of A or B, compared with 34% in 2000.

Talk show hosts and the press continue to receive relatively low grades. Fewer than four-in-ten (37%) give talk show hosts a grade of A or B, while just a third award those marks to the press.

Reactions to Election Outcome

Overall, a majority of voters (53%) are happy that George W. Bush was reelected, a proportion that tracks closely with voters’ choice for president. In 1996, an identical percentage said they were happy over Clinton’s reelection.

Understandably, attitudes toward the election result are highly polarized ­ 94% of Republicans say they are happy with Bush’s win, while 86% of Democrats are unhappy. Voters are similarly split in their reactions to the Republicans maintaining control over Congress.

Nine-in-ten Bush voters say they are “relieved” at the election outcome, while about as many say they are “reassured” and that they feel “safer.” A smaller majority of Bush voters say they are “excited” over Bush’s victory (64%).

While disappointment is the leading reaction among Kerry voters to the outcome, about three-quarters of those voters (74%) say they are “worried.” Roughly a third of Kerry voters say they are “angry” (35%) and somewhat fewer say they are “depressed” (29%).

Intense Reactions Among Conservatives, Liberals

Voters at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum express the most intense reactions to the election. Among Bush voters, more than nine-in-ten conservatives say they feel relieved, reassured and safer. And many more conservatives than moderates or liberals say they feel excited because of Bush’s victory.

Among Kerry voters, nearly twice as many liberals as moderates or conservatives say they feel angry as a consequence of the election. And while 47% of liberals say they are depressed by Bush’s win, just 21% of moderate and conservative Kerry supporters agree.

Looking Ahead

About six-in-ten voters (61%) expect Bush to have a successful second term as president, compared with 29% who believe his second term will be unsuccessful. This is on par with expectations for Clinton’s second term in 1996.

Nearly all Republicans foresee a successful second term for Bush (93%). Most independents (58%) also take a positive view of Bush’s prospects. Democrats are less upbeat: 30% predict a successful second term for the president, while 55% do not.

A narrow majority of Democrats (52%) think the party’s leaders should stand up to the Republicans on issues that are important to Democratic supporters; 42% think Democratic leaders should try to work with Republican leaders even if it means disappointing some groups of Democratic supporters.

Liberal Democrats, by two-to-one (62%-31%), want the party’s leaders to stand up to the GOP, while conservative and moderate Democrats are divided over the issue. About half of conservative and moderate Democrats (48%) say party leaders should take a stand against Republicans, while about as many (47%) favor a more cooperative approach.

Voters and the Issues

Since the election, there has been considerable debate over the relative importance of moral values to voters. More than one-in-five (22%) of those questioned by the National Election Pool on behalf of the Associated Press and the major networks cited moral values as the most important issue in their vote, from a list of seven items on the exit poll questionnaire. In Pew’s post-election survey, half of the respondents were presented with the same list of issues as on the exit poll ­ and asked to choose which was most important ­ while half were asked an open-ended version of the question.

Among those offered the seven-item list, a plurality of 27% selected moral values, followed by 22% who chose Iraq and 21% who selected the economy and jobs. Terrorism was chosen by 14%; education and health care were chosen by 4% each and taxes by 3% (see chart on pg. 2).

The responses were significantly different among those who were not offered a fixed list of choices. The war in Iraq was mentioned as the single most important issue by a similar number (25%), but the economy and jobs were mentioned by only 12%; and only 9% mentioned terrorism. Notably, just 9% used the terms “moral values,” “morals,” or “values.” Specific social issues ­ including abortion, gay marriage, and stem cell research ­ were volunteered by 3%, while another 2% cited the candidates’ morals.

Regardless of how the question is asked, the poll shows that Bush and Kerry voters are far apart in their issue priorities. In both the open and closed formats, moral values are the most important issue to Bush voters ­ 44% selected it from the seven-item list, while 27% volunteered moral values or a related topic in the open format. In both forms of the question, terrorism and homeland security are the next most important issue for Bush voters. No Bush voters in the open-ended format mentioned education, and virtually none mentioned health care.

For Kerry voters, the format makes a difference in the relative ordering of the issues, though in both versions Iraq and economy eclipse other issues in importance. When presented with a list of seven items, about equal numbers of Kerry voters chose economy/jobs (36%) and Iraq (34%). In the open-ended format, nearly twice as many volunteered the war in Iraq (39%) as mentioned an economic issue (21%). Just 2% of Kerry voters volunteer any topic related to moral values, and even fewer mention terrorism as most important to their vote.

Defining Moral Values

The survey asked voters who were given the list of issues to describe, in their own words, “what comes to mind when you think about ‘moral values’?” Among voters who chose moral values as most important from the list of seven issues, about half gave a response that mentioned a specific issue. More than four-in-ten (44%) defined the phrase specifically in terms of social issues, including abortion (28%) homosexuality and gay marriage (29%), or stem cell research (4%). A few other issues also were mentioned, including poverty, economic inequality, and the like.

But the definition of moral values is not limited to policy references. Nearly a quarter of respondents (23%) who cited moral values as important explained their thinking in terms of the personal characteristics of the candidates, including honesty and integrity (cited by 9%). Almost one-in-five (18%) explicitly mentioned religion, Christianity, God, or the Bible. Another 17% answered in terms of traditional values, using such language as “family values,” “right and wrong,” or “the way people live their lives.”

People who did not choose moral values from the list of issues were also asked what the term meant to them. The pattern of responses was quite different from those who said moral values were an important consideration. Fewer mentioned a specific issue, candidate quality, or general religious theme; more answered in general terms, and 12% explicitly protested the imposition of others’ values on them, said the idea was being used as a “wedge” against Democrats, or otherwise expressed a negative reaction to the phrase.

Campaign Contact

Nearly two-in-three voters (64%) report being contacted either over the phone, by email, or in person by candidates, campaigns or other groups urging them to vote in a particular way in the election. A majority (55%) report receiving campaign phone calls, compared with 42% following the 2000 election. Far fewer report being contacted in person or by email (14% each). These alternative contact strategies ­ particularly email ­ were slightly more widespread among Kerry supporters than Bush supporters.

Campaign contacts were intensive in the key battleground states. About three-quarters of voters in battleground states (76%) were contacted by the campaigns in one form or another, compared with 55% in red states and 59% in blue states.

As many as 15% of voters report contributing money in support of one of the presidential candidates this year, and nearly one-in-ten (9%) say they personally volunteered to help one of the presidential campaigns.

Contribution rates were about even among both Bush and Kerry supporters, but Kerry’s backers volunteered time on behalf of the campaign at a slightly higher rate (11% of Kerry supporters, 7% of Bush supporters).

Not surprisingly, younger voters were far less likely to make campaign contributions than older voters. Overall, just 7% of voters under age 30 contributed money to a campaign, compared with 12% of those age 30-49 and 20% of voters age 50 and over.

Bush Voters Decide Early

Nearly four-in-ten voters (38%) say they made up their minds about how to vote a year ago, even before the Democratic primaries had gotten underway. This represents nearly twice as many early deciders as during the open presidential election of four years ago.

As the incumbent, Bush was able to lock in much of his support early. A majority of the people who ultimately voted for Bush this year (52%) knew he would be their choice a year ago, compared with 28% of Kerry’s voters. In 1996, when Bill Clinton was running for reelection, a majority of his supporters also had decided before the end of 1995 that he would be their choice. Fewer than one-in-ten voters report making up their minds in the final week before election day, down from 14% four years ago and as many as 25% in 1992.

Many Vote Early, Some Faced Long Lines

One-in-five voters say they cast their ballots before Nov. 2. These early voters showed no clear preference in the presidential campaign, dividing their support about evenly between Bush and Kerry.

Most of those who voted on Election Day say they either did not have to wait in line at all (42%), or waited for less than 15 minutes (13%). Another 11% reported lines of 15-to-29 minutes, and 10% say they waited up to an hour to vote. Nearly one-in-ten Election Day voters (8%) say they waited for over an hour to vote. Despite changes in voting procedures in many parts of the country, just 4% of voters reported having any problems or difficulties voting, whether by mail or on Election Day.

The vast majority of voters say they are very confident that their vote was accurately counted in the election, but voters express less confidence in the accuracy of the overall vote count nationwide. While 68% are very confident their own vote was counted accurately, just 48% express the same level of confidence that the votes across the country were accurately counted.

Fox News Moves Ahead

Television remains the dominant source of campaign news, and Fox News has emerged as the leading TV outlet for election news. Overall, 21% of voters say they got most of their news on the election from Fox, compared with 15% who relied mostly on CNN, and 13% on NBC News.

The Internet continues to grow in importance as a source for election news. The proportion who cite the Internet as one of their main sources of campaign news has risen exponentially: from 3% in 1996, to 11% in 2000, and 21% today. And the number who say they got any news online during the election this year has risen from 10% in 1996, to 30% in 2000, to 41% today.

Six-in-ten voters under age 30 report using the Internet as a news source at some point during the campaign, while 40% of those under-30 voters cite it is as a main source of campaign news. By comparison, 48% of those age 30-49, 38% of those age 50-64, and just 15% of voters age 65 and older reported any use of the Internet for campaign news.

More See Press as Unfair ­ to Both Candidates

Voters are increasingly troubled by what they see as the media’s unfair treatment of the candidates. While a majority (56%) view press coverage of Bush’s campaign as fair, four-in-ten think it was unfair, up from 30% four years ago.

Significantly more voters (65%) believe the press was fair in its coverage of the Kerry campaign. However, a growing minority also views this coverage as unfair ­ 31% say that now, compared with 24% who faulted press coverage of Al Gore’s campaign four years ago.

Huge Election Night Audience

Fully 84% of voters say they followed the returns on election night, and more than half of those who did so (51%) stayed up until after midnight. Among those who tracked the results, 97% watched on television, while 19% followed returns on the Internet. As with campaign news in general, younger voters were most likely to use the Internet ­ nearly a third of voters under age 30 report following election returns online, but most did so in addition to watching returns on TV.

Overall, news organizations receive relatively favorable reviews for their election night coverage. While just 17% who followed the returns say the coverage on election night was excellent, most (52%) say they did a good job. Three-in-ten say the coverage was only fair (22%) or poor (8%). Comparable numbers of Bush and Kerry supporters rated the coverage favorably.

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided.

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to those most likely to vote. (Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush are in a virtual tie: 46% Kerry, 45% Bush).

Pew’s final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry’s favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew’s final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin. The poll, taken over a four-day period, found the recent video tape from Osama bin Laden had no clear impact on voter preferences. Interviews conducted after the tape was released on Oct. 29 generally resembled the polling conducted on the two previous days.

The potential still exists for changes in voter opinion and, equally important, in the composition of the electorate on Nov. 2. While 6% of likely voters are undecided, another 8% still leave open the possibility of changing their vote.

In that regard, neither campaign has a clear advantage in reaching potential supporters. The survey confirms the extent to which the campaigns are concentrating their efforts in the battleground states. Six-in-ten voters in these contested states say they have been personally contacted ­ either face-to-face or by telephone ­ by one or both of the campaigns.

Patterns of Support Among Likely Voters

Bush holds a solid 52%-43% lead among men, but unlike four years ago, women divide their support fairly evenly ­ 48% support Kerry, while 44% back Bush. Married women and mothers slightly favor the president over Kerry; unmarried women decidedly support the Democratic challenger (see table pg. 4).

Kerry outpolls Bush among likely voters with a postgraduate education, while college graduates divide fairly evenly. Bush is favored by a majority of those who have attended college but have not earned a degree.

Among religious groups, Bush continues to have an overwhelming advantage among white evangelical Protestants, and he also leads among white mainline Protestants. The race is a toss-up among white Catholics. Regionally, Bush wins strong backing in the South and Midwest. Kerry enjoys majority support among voters in the East and West.

Each candidate garners the support of about 90% of their partisans. Kerry holds a slight 48%-44% margin among independent voters. Bush continues to hold a significant advantage among male veterans.

Voter choices are more correlated with views of the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism than with opinions about the state of the national economy.

Early Voters

With 23 states now offering voters the opportunity to vote early ­ up from just 13 states four years ago ­ significant numbers say they have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day. Overall, 16% of likely voters say they voted early, and another 8% expect to cast ballots before Nov. 2; 76% say they will vote on Election Day. Nearly three-in-ten voters in western states (27%), where early voting has long been permitted, have already voted.

Both parties have aggressively encouraged early voting and the poll indicates that their efforts have largely balanced each other out. Among those who say they have already cast a ballot, Kerry received 48% and Bush 47%. Those who say they still plan to vote early divide 49% for Bush and 46% for Kerry.

Bush Victory Expected, But More Are Uncertain

By a wide margin, (48%-27%), more registered voters say Bush, rather than Kerry, is most likely to win Tuesday’s election. But there is decidedly more uncertainty on this score than at the beginning of the month, or even a few weeks ago. Currently, a quarter of voters decline to project an election outcome, up from 12% in early October.

Registered voters continue to view this election as very significant. More than eight-in-ten voters (84%) call the election outcome especially important, compared with 67% in the days prior to the 2000 election and just 61% at a comparable point in 1996.

As in previous polls, Bush’s supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.

With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were undecided or said they could change their vote ­ finds that about half (52%) have moved off the fence, while nearly as many (48%) still are not certain of how they will vote.

Overall, Kerry has made more substantial gains among these swing voters in the past month than has Bush. Today, 40% say they are either certain to vote for Kerry or are leaning toward him (up from just 28% who leaned in Kerry’s direction a month ago). Bush’s support among this group of swing voters stands at 38%, up only slightly from 34% in September.

Those who have decided on their vote in the past month mention the debates as a crucial factor in their decision more than any other events or issues, especially those who have committed to Kerry (45% among those who cited a reason).

The remaining swing voters identified in the call-back survey are a diverse group, but they take common positions on several issues. About three-quarters (76%) say they agree with Bush on some important issues and with Kerry on others. Consequently, a 45% plurality believes that either Bush or Kerry would make a good president. As expected, most uncommitted voters (78%) say it has been hard to decide whom to vote for.

Committed voters who have made up their minds since September largely agree that it is a difficult choice and that both candidates have some strong issues. And more of those who recently committed to Kerry say the decision has been a hard one (61%) than those who committed to Bush (38%). However, the recently decided supporters of both candidates have come to the view that only one candidate would make a good president. More than six-in-ten newly committed voters (63%) disagree with the idea that either Bush or Kerry would make a good president.

The poll, which called back respondents initially interviewed Sept. 8-26, finds that even at this late stage in the campaign, half of remaining swing voters say they do not know enough about Bush and Kerry. That compares with about a third of those who have committed to a candidate since September (34%). Moreover, only about half of the remaining swing voters (53%) believe it really matters who wins the election, compared with 71% of recently decided voters.

For months, a defining characteristic of swing voters has been that, unlike committed voters, they have favorable opinions of both candidates. That generally remains the case even for swing voters who have recently made up their minds; 56% have a positive view of Kerry, while 47% have a favorable opinion of Bush. The remaining swing voters also have generally favorable impressions of both candidates. But much smaller percentages express unfavorable opinions of Bush and Kerry, suggesting that remaining swing voters still do not have clearly defined impressions of the two men.

Still, the events of the past four weeks did more to polish Kerry’s image than Bush’s among those who were uncommitted in September. Of the swing voters who expressed an unfavorable view of Kerry then, most (58%) continue to express a negative opinion of him, but nearly four-in-ten (38%) now have a favorable opinion of Kerry. By contrast, there has been less movement among those who held an unfavorable opinion of Bush; just 13% have changed their minds and now have a positive opinion of Bush. Both candidates are now viewed negatively by some who liked them last month, but the shift has been about the same for each candidate (21% for Kerry, 24% for Bush).

The cross-pressures that are making it difficult for the remaining swing voters to commit are reflected in their attitudes toward issues. Three-in-ten (29%) say the economy is most important to their vote, which places them closer to certain Kerry voters than Bush supporters. At the same time, they give terrorism much higher priority than do committed Kerry voters.

Iraq Key to Movement Toward Kerry

On the issue of Iraq, swing voters also fall between Kerry and Bush voters. A plurality of the remaining swing voters (46%) believes it was the right decision to go to war in Iraq. Newly committed Kerry voters overwhelmingly reject the decision to go to war (76%), while 66% of those who have recently decided to vote for Bush say the war was the right decision.

When swing voters were asked if they have learned anything over the past month that made them think differently about the candidates, 17% of those who have moved toward Kerry mention Iraq compared with just 9% of those who have moved toward Bush. In addition, more swing voters who have moved toward Kerry say Iraq is the most important issue in their vote (21% vs. 11% among those moving to Bush).

Who Moved and Where?

Much of the movement of swing voters since September reflects partisans returning home. Among those who shifted toward Bush, 71% consider themselves Republicans or Republican-leaning; among those who shifted toward John Kerry, 76% are Democrats or Democratic-leaning.

The presidential debates helped to give Kerry an advantage among swing voters who have shifted their views over the past month. Most swing voters watched at least some of the debates, and by more than three-to-one (44%-13%) say that Kerry did the better job in the debates. Among those who have recently committed to Kerry fully 74% said he did better.

Moreover, when swing voters were asked if they had seen, read, or heard anything over the past month that had made them think differently about the candidates, 30% of those who mentioned something cited the presidential debates. Among those who moved toward Kerry, 39% cited the debates; only 22% of those who moved toward Bush did so.

Who’s Left

The follow-up survey of swing voters gives a relatively clear picture of how the events of the past month have affected those who have now made a choice. But there are no indications of what the remaining swing voters are likely to do.

At least some of those yet to commit to a candidate may simply not vote. Roughly the same percentage of remaining swing voters as recently committed voters say they plan to vote (90% vs. 92%). But fewer remaining swing voters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, and those who are still in the swing category are less likely to say they have thought “quite a lot” about the election (64% vs. 77% of recently decided voters).

Of the 48% of the original swing group that remains on the fence, 16% are “soft” Bush voters (favor Bush but say they could still change their mind); 13% are soft Kerry voters; and 19% are undecided. As a group, they are evenly divided in terms of underlying partisan loyalty (37% are Republican or lean Republican; 37% are Democrat or lean Democrat). Slightly more say the war in Iraq was the right decision (46%) than say it was wrong (36%). Demographically, the remaining swing voters look very much like the rest of the electorate.

National polls show that the overall swing vote is still large enough to provide either candidate with a decisive victory. The most recent Pew Research Center national survey, conducted Oct. 15-19, shows that 18% of registered voters still are undecided or may change their vote. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, 15% are in the swing vote category.

Little Wavering Among Committed

The Pew Research Center also called back 482 voters who in September said they had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (241 certain Bush voters, the same
number of committed Kerry voters).

Overwhelming majorities of these voters remain set in their voting decisions: 95% of certain voters are still firmly behind the president, while about the same number of committed Kerry supporters (94%) say they are certain to vote for him.

A small number of voters who were certain of their choice in September now say they are only leaning or might change their minds (2% for Bush, 3% for Kerry), but hardly anyone who was certain in September now fully intends to vote for the other candidate; just five out of 482 certain Bush or Kerry voters switched sides since September.

In the latest Pew Research Center national survey of 1,307 registered voters, which finds the horse race in a dead heat (45%-45%), those who say they will be voting for the first time ­ who comprise 11% of registered voters ­ lean to Sen. John Kerry (47%-42%). Mothers, another closely-watched group, favor Kerry by a similar margin (49%-43%).

The survey shows that male veterans, in the spotlight this year with the debate over the candidates’ Vietnam-era service, favor President Bush by a substantial margin (54%-35%).

Bush continues to run well among religiously observant voters, as he did in 2000. Those who attend church at least weekly favor him by 53%-38%. Bush also leads among gun owners ­ who constitute 42% of registered voters ­ by 16 points (54%-38%).

During the presidential debates, Bush frequently touted the benefits of economic plan for small business owners. This group ­ comprising 17% of registered voters ­ supports the president by a wide margin (56%-37%). Active stock traders, a group that has received far less attention this year than in 2000, also favor Bush (50%-42%).

Kerry is doing especially well among voters that have experienced financial strain over the past year. Those who have been unable to afford health care in the past 12 months ­ a quarter of the registered electorate ­ favor him by more than two-to-one (62%-29%). Similarly, those who say they or someone in their household have been without a job in the past 12 months ­ a group comprising 35% of voters ­ back Kerry (57%-32%).

Fully half of all registered voters say they have a friend, relative or colleague who is gay. Kerry also leads in this group by eight points (50%-42%).

Voters express increasingly positive opinions of the 2004 presidential campaign. Virtually all voters ­ 96% ­ believe the campaign is important, while a growing number also view the campaign as interesting. Fully two-thirds of voters (66%) describe the campaign as interesting, up from 50% in early September and just 35% in June.

Moreover, increasing numbers of voters also perceive the campaign as informative and easy to follow. Nearly three-quarters (73%) say the election has been informative, up from 63% last month. By seven-to-one (84%-12%), voters say the race has been easy to follow, rather than hard to follow.

The generally favorable assessments of the campaign do not extend to the news media’s coverage of the race. A narrow majority (54%) rates the coverage as good or excellent, up a bit from the 47% who gave campaign coverage a positive rating in June. But larger numbers of voters than four years ago think that coverage has been unfair to both campaigns. Further, as in recent presidential campaigns, many voters believe that journalists hope the Democratic nominee will win, and that they often let their own political preferences influence the way they cover the news.

Half of voters (50%) say most newspaper and TV reporters would prefer to see John Kerry win the election, compared with just 22% who think that most journalists are pulling for George Bush. That is comparable to findings at about this stage in previous campaigns; in October 2000, 47% of voters felt that journalists wanted to see Al Gore win. In addition, a majority of voters (58%) continue to think that members of the news media often let their own political preferences influence their reporting.

While most voters rate the press coverage of the Bush and Kerry campaigns as fair, an increasing number view the coverage of both campaigns as unfair. Nearly four-in-ten voters (37%) think news coverage of Bush’s campaign has been unfair, compared with 25% in October 2000. Similarly, 27% think coverage of Kerry’s campaign is unfair, nearly double the number who said that about news coverage of Gore’s campaign four years ago (15%).

The latest Pew Research Center survey of 1,307 registered voters, conducted Oct. 15-19, shows that there also is a pervasive belief that news organizations wield too much influence on the election’s outcome. Nearly six-in-ten (62%) say news organizations have too much influence in determining the election’s outcome; only about half that number (32%) feel that the media’s influence is appropriate.

Swing Voters Unhappy With Choices

A solid majority of voters (66%) say they are very or fairly satisfied with their choice of candidates this year, but swing voters are less enthusiastic over the choices. Just 35% of swing voters say they are satisfied with the field of presidential candidates. By contrast, 77% of committed Bush voters, and nearly as many certain Kerry voters (69%), express satisfaction with the candidates.

Similarly, swing voters give both candidates the same middling grades for their persuasive abilities. Roughly four-in-ten swing voters (39%) give Bush a grade of A or B for convincing them to vote for him; about the same number (38%) give Kerry a grade of A or B. Committed Bush and Kerry voters give their own candidates high marks, while giving low marks to the opponent.

For the most part, however, swing voters express the same generally positive opinions of the campaign as voters who have already committed to a candidate. But far more swing voters than committed voters view the campaign as dull. Only about half of swing voters (51%) believe the campaign is interesting while almost as many (42%) think it is dull. By wide margins, certain Bush and Kerry voters find the campaign interesting.

More See Campaign Coverage as Unfair

Overall, 37% of voters believe press coverage of Bush has been unfair, up from 25% at about this stage four years ago. Far more Republicans than Democrats say Bush coverage has been unfair, but the perception that the press has not been fair to Bush has increased across the board, particularly among independents. Fully 40% of independent voters view coverage of Bush’s campaign as unfair, about twice the number who expressed that view in October 2000 (19%).

Somewhat fewer voters (27%) think news organizations have been unfair to Kerry’s campaign than say that about Bush. But that is nearly double the number who thought Al Gore’s campaign was not treated fairly in October 2000 (15%). As is the case with assessments of coverage of Bush, the perception that the press has not treated the Democratic nominee fairly has grown among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

News Audiences Differ Over Coverage

Opinions of campaign news coverage have long been divided along partisan lines, with Republicans generally expressing a more critical view of the coverage. With the increasing politicization of news audiences ­ as seen in several recent Pew Research Center surveys ­ attitudes toward the coverage also differ markedly depending on where voters get their news.

While a narrow majority of all voters (54%) have a positive view of campaign coverage, voters who get most of their election news from the Fox News Channel are more critical of the coverage than are voters who rely on other sources for news about the election. Fewer than half of voters who get most of their election news from Fox (46%) rate the overall media coverage as good or excellent; that compares with 64% of voters who go to CNN for election news and comparable proportions of those who rely on network news (63%), newspapers (61%) or local TV (58%).

In addition, about seven-in-ten voters who get most of their election news from Fox (72%) say news organizations have too much influence over which candidate becomes president. Smaller majorities of voters who turn to other sources for election news believe that news organizations have too much influence over the election outcome.

Different Sources, Different Choices

Earlier this month, Pew found that the voting intentions of the election news audience were deeply divided according to where voters got their news. The current survey shows that gap remains substantial, with a large majority of the Fox News audience supporting President Bush and a comparable share of the CNN audience favoring Sen. Kerry.

Seven-in-ten voters who get most of their election news from Fox News support Bush, while just 21% back Kerry. By contrast, voters who get most of their election news from CNN favor Kerry over Bush, by 67%-26%.

Other news audiences are more closely divided. Kerry has a modest advantage among voters who mostly rely on network news and newspapers. Voters who get most of their election news from local TV are split, with 46% supporting Kerry and 42% Bush.