Jul. 16, 2004

Horse Race Polls Not More Variable This Year

Lead Changes Contribute to Erroneous Perception

Jul. 8, 2004

Voters More Engaged, But Campaign Gets Lukewarm Ratings

Summary of Findings The presidential election is capturing the public’s attention much more now than it did at this point four and eight years ago. Nearly half of Americans (47%) say they are more interested in politics than they were four years ago, up from 38% who expressed that view in June 2000. Public attention […]

Jun. 24, 2004

Swing Vote Smaller Than Usual, But Still Sizable

Summary of Findings There are considerably fewer swing voters now than at this point in the previous three presidential campaigns. But the swing vote, while smaller in relative terms, is still substantial and certainly large enough for a presidential candidate to win a big victory. Pew’s most recent survey, conducted June 3-13, finds 21% of […]

Jun. 17, 2004

Public Support for War Resilient

Summary of Findings Americans are paying markedly less attention to Iraq than in the last two months. At the same time, their opinions about the war have become more positive. The number of Americans who think the U.S. military effort is going well has jumped from 46% in May to 57%, despite ongoing violence in […]

May. 12, 2004

Iraq Prison Scandal Hits Home, But Most Reject Troop Pullout

Summary of Findings Public satisfaction with national conditions has fallen to 33%, its lowest level in eight years, in the wake of revelations of prisoner abuse committed by U.S. soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. President Bush’s overall job approval rating also has dropped into negative territory: 44% approve of his job performance, while […]

May. 12, 2004

Why the Polls Don’t Add Up

by Andrew Kohut in The New York Times

Mar. 29, 2004

Bush Support Steady in Wake of Clarke Criticisms

Summary of Findings A week’s worth of criticism of his pre-Sept. 11 record on terrorism has had little impact on President Bush’s support among voters. He is now running even with Sen. John Kerry in a head-to-head match-up among registered voters (47% Kerry- 46% Bush) after trailing Kerry by 52%-43% in mid-March. Voter opinions have […]

Mar. 25, 2004

Far More Voters Believe Election Outcome Matters

Summary of Findings The long general election campaign begins with voters paying much more attention than usual and a decidedly greater number of Americans thinking that it matters who wins in the fall than felt that way four years ago. However, roughly half of Americans already say the campaign is too long, “boring” and “too […]

Mar. 3, 2004

Three-in-Ten Voters Open to Persuasion

Summary of Findings Heading into an eight-month marathon to Election Day, President Bush and Sen. John Kerry already command strong support from their respective parties and will now try to win over those in the middle: ­ the estimated three-in-ten voters who have not yet fully committed to either candidate. Overall, 38% of voters support […]

Feb. 19, 2004

Democratic Primary Campaign Impresses Voters

Introduction and Summary So far, the presidential primary campaign has been very good for the Democratic Party. Public interest in the race has been relatively high. Nearly half of Americans (45%) have a positive overall impression of the Democratic field, up from 31% just a month ago. And while a slim majority of the public […]

Jan. 29, 2004

A Good Day for the Pollsters

The Accuracy of Pre-Election Tracking Polls in New Hampshire

Jan. 29, 2004

A Year of Contention at Home and Abroad

2003 Year-end Report

Jan. 28, 2004

Kerry’s Broad Base, Dean’s High Negatives

Notes From the New Hampshire Exit Polls

Jan. 18, 2004

All the Presidents’ Numbers

New York Times

Jan. 15, 2004

Economy and Anti-Terrorism Top Public’s Policy Agenda

Introduction and Summary Americans view Howard Dean as more liberal than the other leading Democratic candidates and far more liberal than the way they see themselves. For his part, President Bush is seen as more conservative than the average person. Bush is somewhat further from the ideological self-perception of the average American than are several […]

Jan. 11, 2004

Cable and Internet Loom Large in Fragmented Political News Universe

Summary of Findings The 2004 presidential campaign is continuing the long-term shift in how the public gets its election news. Television news remains dominant, but there has been further erosion in the audience for broadcast TV news. The Internet, a relatively minor source for campaign news in 2000, is now on par with such traditional […]