The Internet audience is not only growing, it is getting decidedly mainstream. Two years ago, when just 23% of Americans were going online, stories about technology were the top news draw. Today, with 41% of adults using the Internet, the weather is the most popular online news attraction.

Increasingly people without college training, those with modest incomes, and women are joining the ranks of Internet users, who not long ago were largely well-educated, affluent men. Moreover, newcomers to the Internet go online much more often for personal reasons than do more experienced online users.

As a consequence, Internet news interests are changing markedly. The popularity of general interest subjects online — from weather patterns to entertainment news — is growing much faster than that of political or international news. According to the Pew Research Center’s nationwide telephone survey of 3,184 adults, the percentage of Americans who go online to access local, entertainment and weather news has grown substantially since 1996. And, while more voters used the Internet for election news and information in 1998 than two years earlier, the percentage of the online public that sought out election information actually diminished.

At the same time, the rate of consumer purchasing on the Internet is skyrocketing. Even before the Christmas rush, 32% of Internet users had bought something online, a leap from just 8% in 1995. If consumers grow more confident about the security of online commerce, this number may climb higher: 61% of Internet users who have not yet made an online purchase cite credit card security as a reason.

Similar growth can be seen in the popularity of email, which continues to be the top Internet draw and shows the same broadening trend. Email is used exclusively for work much less than it was in 1995 (12% vs. 31%). Today, among those who use email, 88% do so for personal reasons either exclusively (41%) or for both personal and work communications (47%). Many email users say they communicate more often with friends and family now that this technology is available.

But with everyday use, some of the mystique of email is fading. Among those who use email at work, the percentage who think that email leads to more frank communication between upper and lower ranks in the workplace fell to 36% in the current survey from 69% in 1995.

The broadening of the Internet population also casts doubt on suggestions that online activities are associated with social isolationism and interpersonal distrust and that the Internet attracts malcontents. The survey, which included 1,993 Internet users, found them to be as engaged — as likely to have visited a friend or family member or called someone just to talk yesterday — as people who don’t go online. Frequent Internet users are just as trusting of other people and the government as the average American, even when factors like age, education and income are taken into account.

News Use Varies

The November 1998 survey that is the principal basis for this report confirms a dramatic growth in online news consumption over the past several years. But Center surveys also find considerable variation in online news reading habits from month-to-month. For instance, while the November survey found 37% of Internet users saying they went online at least once a week to get the news, an April 1998 poll found 55% and a subsequent December survey logged 64%. These fluctuations may reflect differences in the news environment from month-to-month, or they may indicate that “getting the news” online is a somewhat ambiguous activity that blends, in people’s thinking, news consumption with other information-gathering activities.

The comprehensive November survey also provides a mixed answer to the question of whether increasing use of the Internet as a news source is leading to decreasing use of traditional news outlets. Three-in-four Internet news consumers (75%) say they get more of their news from traditional outlets, while only 11% say they are now using print and broadcast outlets less.

Further, the online population is more likely to read a newspaper daily than the offline public. But this is not an apples-to-apples comparison because Internet users tend to be more interested in the news than non-users.

When the media habits of users and non-users are contrasted taking their interest in politics and other demographic differences into account, the survey finds heavy Internet news consumers watching relatively less television news than their offline counterparts but reading newspapers and listening to radio news just as often.

The survey finds other indications supporting the idea that using the Internet may have a more negative impact on news viewing than news reading. First, Internet users most often go online for the kind of information featured by television news, especially by cable. Updates on stock quotes and sports scores (38%), weather, movies and other local information (39%), and news headlines (29%) are among the most often used features of Internet news sites.

Second, new online users increasingly come from lower and middle socio-economic groups which are heavier than average television watchers. New users are also disproportionately drawn from younger generations, who have primarily relied on TV rather than newspapers for their news.

The survey indicates, however, that both print and broadcast news may be able to cross-fertilize their audience with Internet news users. Fully 41% of those who go online say they turn to the Internet to get more information on stories first seen in the traditional media. Relatively few (21%) say they read stories online instead of getting them in newspapers or on TV.

The websites of national broadcast news organizations are more popular than newspaper sites. In fact, the current survey finds proportionately fewer online visitors to newspaper-sponsored sites than in 1996. Reports of using the MSNBC website increased the most over this period.

Generally, online audiences say they turn to news websites for three reasons: to get information that is unavailable elsewhere, for convenience and for the ability to search for news on a particular topic. Audio and video supplements are secondary, as is the ability to express opinions about news topics. This is true for both heavy and light news users.

The Internet news audience finds the websites of various news organizations no more or less accurate than the information found in those organizations’ traditional news outlets. However, more broadly, 44% of online users think that an accurate picture of what is going on in the world is more often found on the Internet than in daily newspapers or on network news broadcasts.

Campaign ’98 and the Internet

Traffic in Web-based election news was higher in 1998 than in 1996 (11 million people vs. 7 million) because the number of people with online access increased, not because politics and elections have become hot topics on the Internet. As a percentage of users, there was less use of the Internet for political purposes in the 1998 midterm elections. Just 15% reported going online for information about the elections, down from 22% in 1996.

This may be in part because midterm elections engender less interest than presidential contests. But the survey also suggests that new Internet users, who have lower socio-economic profiles and less political interest than longtime users, were not as inclined to use the Internet for election information.

Most people who did use the World Wide Web for political purposes rated their visits to various news and election sites as somewhat useful, with media sites getting slightly higher ratings than government or campaign sites. Three-in-ten people who went to a political website were seeking information about a candidate’s record, making that the top motivation for election news seekers. Fully 34% say their vote on Election Day was influenced by information they found on the Internet.

Slightly more Republicans than Democrats or Independents used the Internet for election information. Generally, Americans online are more politically active, more conservative and less supportive of Clinton than the rest of the population. However, a detailed look at their attitudes suggests that the Internet population tends to be somewhat more conservative on economic issues, but more liberal on social questions.

Other Findings:

Few Internet users experience information overload — and most (63%) say they spend neither too much nor too little time online.

Nearly one-fifth of Internet users get customized news reports and an equal number receive emailed news. Slightly more regularly get news stories online instead of from newspapers and TV.

Trying to find something on the Internet is the top source of frustration for users, followed by the speed of Internet connections and the speed of searches. And these complaints aren’t limited to beginners — experienced users express more frustration than new users in each of these areas.

Americans are not overly concerned about computers crashing in the Year 2000. Only 13% worry a lot that computer systems will fail next year.

The remainder of the report is divided into five sections. Section I outlines basic patterns of Internet use. Section II deals with online news consumption. Section III looks at how Americans used the Internet for the 1998 elections. Section IV explores the attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of Internet users. And Section V looks at Americans’ attitudes toward the Internet and technology. These sections are followed by several descriptive tables, a detailed methodology, a technical appendix and the complete questionnaire.

In the wake of the congressional elections earlier this month, President Clinton’s job approval ratings inched upward, sentiment for impeachment remained low, and by almost a two-to-one margin Americans said that Clinton — not the Republican leaders in Congress — should now take the lead in solving the nation’s problems. This is a stark turnaround from four years ago, when Clinton’s popularity hit rock bottom and the public narrowly preferred Republican congressional leaders take the lead on the issues.

This upbeat picture for Clinton fits public satisfaction with the very closely watched results of the 1998 elections, which saw Democrats pick up five seats in the House of Representatives. Overall, 42% of Americans paid very close attention to the results — making it one of the top Washington political stories of the year and comparable even to the historic 1994 elections, when Republicans wrested control of the House from the Democrats for the first time in 40 years. Moreover, 79% of Americans describe themselves as satisfied with the outcome, a step up from the 70% who felt this way in 1994.

In assessing the elections and President Clinton, Democrats today are overwhelmingly united, notably more so than Republicans. More than 90% of Democrats say they are happy their party picked up seats in the House, compared to 76% of Republicans who are pleased their party retained power there. Fully 70% of Americans do not want Clinton impeached, including 92% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans. More broadly, Clinton’s job approval is 65%: 89% among Democrats; 37% among Republicans. These are the principal findings of a Pew Research Center telephone survey of 1,005 adults conducted Nov. 6-10. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

When it comes to solving the nation’s problems, 49% of Americans want Clinton out in front. Among Democrats, 77% say the President should take the lead, compared to 9% who say GOP congressional leaders. Republicans are more divided: 21% say Clinton should take the lead, just 50% say GOP leaders.

In the survey, which began on the night of Speaker Newt Gingrich’s sudden retirement announcement and continued for four days afterward, Republican congressional leaders suffered a drop in approval compared to last summer. Today, 41% of Americans approve of the GOP leaders’ job performance, down 7 percentage points from a peak in late August. Just 29% of the public trusts the Republicans to make the right decision on impeachment, compared to 44% who trust the Democrats. Again, Democrats have more faith in their party than Republicans do in theirs (79% vs. 63%).

More Americans are happy the Democrats gained seats in the House than are happy the Republicans kept control (56% vs. 47%). Republicans were almost as satisfied as Democrats with the outcome of the elections (75% vs. 81%).

Very few GOP voters were motivated by a desire to curtail Clinton’s authority. Only one-in-ten say their vote for a Republican was a vote to try to control President Clinton’s power. Two years ago, twice as many people (22%) cast anti-Clinton votes. Those who voted Democratic are more likely to say theirs was a vote to control the Republicans’ power (24%). Nonetheless, most Republican and Democratic voters say they were voting more for the candidate personally than for or against either political party (62% and 51%, respectively).

While voters expressed strong disapproval of GOP handling of the scandal, they also reported more optimism and economic security than in either of the last two elections. The credit for this clearly went to Clinton. Fully 56% of voters approved of his job performance, and they voted Democratic by a margin of 76%-22%.

The Credit Game. Voters who predicted that they would be financially better off a year from now were twice as numerous as in 1994, and they overwhelmingly voted Democratic across the country.
Republican Drift. Republicans did not run nearly as well as they did even two years ago among upper income voters and college graduates. They ran 11 percentage points behind their 1996 tally among affluent voters.

Gender gap helps Democrats more. Women gave much stronger support to Democrats than men gave to Republicans yesterday. That pivotal pattern was reversed in 1994, when women divided their votes and men overwhelming went GOP.
Moderates Went Democratic. Self-described moderates were more numerous this year than in 1994, and they overwhelmingly went Democratic.

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting significantly in favor of Democratic congressional candidates going into the final days of the 1998 midterm election campaign. For the first time this fall, the new survey shows likely voters equally divided between the two parties.¹ In three previous surveys since late August, generic support for GOP candidates was consistently greater than that for Democrats.

The general increase in support for Democrats coincides with a similar increase in President Clinton’s approval ratings, now at 65%. In the latest survey, likely voters are split between Democratic and Republican candidates 46%-44%, a significant change since mid-October when the GOP had a 48%-43% edge. Conducted October 28-31, the new survey of 1,714 registered voters (743 likely voters) began the same day that nationwide reports broke of a Republican advertising campaign drawing attention to the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal.

The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters may be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. Nearly one-in-five voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided, and the race is still even among likely voters who are committed to a choice at this time. The uncertainty of the election outcome is further underscored by two factors:

First, throughout the fall, the campaign has attracted less voter attention than it did in 1994, suggesting that voters may conclusively make up their minds later than they did four years ago or choose not to vote.

Secondly, the chances for reversal or acceleration of a trend is greatest when a shift occurs late in a campaign, as it apparently has this year.

Democrats have made gains since mid-October among many voter groups, but the change in their favor is most evident among non-whites, older voters and those on the East and West coasts. Voter interest is higher on both coasts than it was in mid-October.

As in previous Pew surveys this fall, voter turnout seems likely to be lower than four years ago. However, the survey indicates that compared to 1994, participation will be relatively greater among core Republicans and Democrats and lower among independent voters.

The percentage of people saying their vote for Congress will be a vote against Clinton slipped slightly to 17% from 23% in mid-October. At the same time, the percentage of voters with an unfavorable view of members who voted for congressional impeachment inquiry rose slightly to 54% from 49%.

As the President’s job approval rating has climbed, so has disapproval of GOP congressional leaders. Both of these factors are closely tied to generic support for congressional candidates of the respective parties. The survey finds increased support for reelection of incumbents compared to mid-October, but the view that most members deserve reelection remains significantly below what it was earlier in the year. However, voters express more satisfaction with incumbents — both their own and generally — than they did four years ago.

Education is the top issue for voters this year: 88% rank it as very important to the nation. The debate over how to use the budget surplus and efforts to ease the global economic crisis follow, with 76% ranking each as very important. Regulating health maintenance organizations is next at 68%. Majorities in both parties rank each of these issues as very important.

At the very bottom of the list is the investigation into the relationship between President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky: Just 18% of registered voters say the issue is very important. The congressional debate over impeachment is deemed more significant, with 35% saying it is very important to the nation. Supporters of Republican candidates are far more likely to say these issues are important than are either backers of Democrats or undecided voters.

The House of Representatives’ decision to hold impeachment hearings has not significantly eroded support for Republicans. Despite a public backlash against proceeding with the inquiry, Republican congressional candidates continue to hold a small lead over Democrats among likely voters nationwide. Further, the Pew Research Center’s latest survey includes an oversample of voters in the 105 most competitive districts, where it found Republican House candidates running ahead of Democrats by 48%-to-44%, a margin almost identical to the GOP’s 48%-to-43% advantage nationwide.

The current Republican edge is comparable to that obtained in three previous Pew surveys conducted since June. All of these polls, including the current one, found Republicans owing their lead to a disproportionate advantage among likely voters.¹ The parties are at parity when preferences are based on all registered voters.

There is no indication that the Republican turnout advantage has grown since Clinton’s admission of misleading the public about his relationship with Monica Lewinsky, the release of the Starr report or the broadcast of Clinton’s grand jury testimony. Moreover, the GOP’s likely turnout advantage is no greater than it was in mid-October 1994.² (The Republicans’ narrow victory in the popular vote that year was a first in recent decades and as a result led to a major turnover in Congress. A similar vote this year would lead to a status quo outcome since the GOP continues to hold a majority of House seats.)

These findings are based on a national survey of 1,532 registered voters conducted October 14-18, 1998. The study has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. For more information on the oversample in competitive House races, see the questionnaire section.

Several indicators of voter turnout, however, are slightly below what they were in 1994 at a comparable period, suggesting that turnout may be lower this year. Slightly fewer voters say they plan to vote, rate themselves 10 or 9 on a ten-point voting scale, say they always vote, and report they have given a lot of thought to the upcoming elections. Only 35% of the voting age population answered affirmatively to five turnout questions in 1998, compared to 41% who did so in October 1994.

The slippage in likely voters does not appear related to the escalation of the White House scandal. Turnout indicators were pointing downward as early as June, well before Clinton’s admission and serious talk of impeachment. In fact, the current survey provides little indication that voters see the congressional elections as a mandate on impeachment.

Most voters say that either state and local issues or a candidate’s experience and character will be most influential in how they vote. Less than half (42%) say their vote will be either for Clinton (19%) or against him (23%). Very few mention Clinton or the scandal as the most important problem facing the nation or as an issue they want candidates to discuss (4% and 3%, respectively).

However, when impeachment is raised as an issue, 40% of voters say a candidate’s likely position on it will be a factor, suggesting the issue could have more impact than is apparent today. Democrats more often say a candidate’s stand on impeachment would be a motivating factor than do either Republicans or Independents. In that regard, many Democrats (46%) say that their party’s congressional members should have been more loyal to the president. Republicans, on the other hand, are mostly satisfied that GOP members have acted appropriately (58%).

Following the vote to open an impeachment inquiry, the Pew Research Center survey found job approval ratings for Republican congressional leaders slipping along with support for reelecting incumbents. As most of this change occurred among loyal Democratic constituencies, it is having little impact on support for Democrats and Republicans on the generic ballot question.

At a time of low interest in the off-year elections and uncertainty about the consequences of likely impeachment hearings, four of five recent national polls found a GOP lead in voting intentions for the House of Representatives. Only Gallup found more support for Democratic candidates than Republicans in September. In the other national polls, the Republican lead varied from 3 percentage points (Pew Research Center and ABC News/Washington Post) to 12 percentage points (CBS News/New York Times).

Republicans typically turn out to vote at higher rates than do Democrats, and the Republican advantage in each of these polls emerges when the sample is narrowed to a base of likely voters. But there is no evidence to suggest that the GOP has a bigger edge based on turnout than it had in 1994, and no evidence to suggest that Democrats are any less likely to vote than they were before the Starr report was released.

Although Pew’s trend studies suggest that turnout will be relatively low this year,¹ the differential between the likelihood of Democrats and Republicans going to the polls is no greater than it was in 1994. In October 1994, Republicans outranked Democrats as likely voters by 10 percentage points. In September of this year, the difference is 8 percentage points.

The polls this year have found some fluctuation in voter preferences. At various times, both the Gallup and Pew surveys have shown larger Democratic leads than the most recent polls in voting intentions among registered voters. The lower numbers now may reflect the softening of President Clinton’s approval ratings, which are closely tied to congressional vote preferences.

Historically, the generic measure of partisan support has proven predictive of the popular vote, even in years like this when the number of open House seats (33) is low. For example, Gallup pre-election generic results in 1990 (29 open seats) and 1966 (24) mirrored the popular vote.²

Certain on Scandal

Americans have shown a great deal of conviction on the bottom line questions about the Clinton-Lewinsky affair. The public’s commitment to its point of view is reflected in three independent patterns in national opinion surveys:

• Various polling organizations use slightly different questions, yet get remarkably similar results.
• Responses to different questions within the same survey show most people are consistent in their thinking about what should happen to Clinton.
• When people are asked if they ever consider changing their views in order to end the controversy, most say no.

Three national surveys conducted the week of September 21, following the release of Clinton’s videotaped testimony, found remarkably similar divisions over whether Clinton should be impeached and removed from office. Although the question wording was slightly different in each poll, the results differed by less than 3 percentage points, showing just less than one third of Americans favoring impeachment and two-thirds opposed.

Questions on whether Clinton should resign also produced similar results across a number of survey organizations, again despite small variations in the way these questions were phrased. As many as seven national polls conducted in September found a majority of Americans saying Clinton should not resign from office. Most surveys found between 61% and 69% against resignation.

A September 17-18 Newsweek poll found the public far more narrowly divided: 46% said yes, 50% said no. However, the question wording differed substantially from other national surveys. The Newsweek question asked if Clinton should “consider” resigning over the Monica Lewinsky scandal, given “what he did to keep it secret.”

Internal Consistency

Not only is public opinion consistent across polling organizations, but the answers given to different scandal-related questions within the same survey also show that most people are consistently for or against Clinton. Three questions in a September 19-22 Pew Research Center poll asked respondents whether Clinton should resign and whether he should be impeached and removed from office under two possible conditions — if he lied under oath, and if he encouraged Monica Lewinsky to lie in her testimony.

Most respondents took consistent positions on all three questions: 44% of Americans said that Clinton should not resign and that they opposed impeachment under both circumstances; another 24% said Clinton should resign and consistently favored impeachment; just 31% offered mixed views on the questions. Democrats show striking consistency in their support of Clinton, with nearly two-thirds opposing impeachment and resignation. Republicans are divided, with only a slim plurality favoring both impeachment and resignation and an almost equal number holding mixed views.

No After Thoughts

Regardless of whether Americans think Clinton should resign or remain in office, those on both sides of the question have few doubts about their points of view. Among the 69% who think Clinton should stay in office, just 19% say they sometimes think it would be better if he resigned in order to end the controversy, while 80% do not. Similarly, among the 26% who think Clinton should resign, just 26% say they sometimes think it would be better for Congress to drop the whole matter, while the remaining 72% do not.

American voters divided their support for Republican and Democratic congressional candidates nearly equally in the weeks between President Clinton’s televised admission that he had an improper relationship with Monica Lewinsky and news of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr’s report to Congress on the matter.

But with two months to go until the midterm elections, GOP prospects are being bolstered by significant improvements in the party’s national image, while Democrats are on shakier ground. Support for Democratic Party candidates continues to be closely tied to Clinton’s approval ratings, which so far have remained impervious to strong personal dislike of him and renewed public interest in the scandal.

Public esteem for Congress is at a very high level, and approval of the Republican congressional leadership now consistently outdistances disapproval for the first time since the 1995 government shutdowns. Today, the GOP congressional leadership gets a 44%-to-37% job approval rating, and House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s favorability rating has risen to 41% from 30% over the past year.

Consequently, the Republican Party’s image is better than it has been in 18 months. Pew’s latest national survey finds 56% of the public holding a favorable opinion of the GOP, up from 50% in March and 47% in August 1997. The survey also shows improved evaluations of Republicans relative to Democrats on five of 11 issue questions. Importantly for the GOP, the margin seeing Democrats as better able to handle education and health care has narrowed considerably since the spring. More positive views of Republicans by older people are an integral part of their current standing.

Republicans hold a slight edge over the Democrats in the generic House ballot measure. Two Pew surveys over the past month have found somewhat more support for Republican candidates than Democrats among likely voters. In the latest national survey conducted August 27-September 8, the GOP holds a 48%-to-45% edge, almost identical to the 47%-to-43% margin in a August 21-24 survey. The current survey of 2,266 adults has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

The GOP has not widened its lead in popular support over the Democrats in part because of the strong correlation between Clinton’s job approval (61%) and voter backing of Democratic candidates. Today, there is a stronger relationship between opinion of Clinton’s job performance and congressional voting intentions than between opinion of the congressional leadership and voter sentiment.

Speculation that interest in voting among core Democrats would decline in response to the Lewinsky scandal is not supported by the survey findings. Democrats were as likely to express interest in casting ballots as they were prior to the President’s August 17 admission of an inappropriate relationship with the White House intern.

Through late August and early September, approval of Clinton’s job performance remained unaffected by his sagging personal image and the stock market’s flip flops. While there is strong public interest in news about the stock market and greater concern about foreign policy generally and Russia specifically, views about Clinton’s job performance and national conditions remain robust. The polling, which bracketed the stock market volatility, found no decline in economic confidence, no slide in satisfaction with the state of the nation and no dip in Clinton’s approval rating.

Impeachment Opposition

Americans overwhelmingly say that President Clinton should remain in office: 76% of the public today wants Clinton to complete his term. Moreover, a solid majority says (65%) that even if Clinton did lie under oath about his relationship with Lewinsky, he should not be impeached.

Most Americans (57%) also say that they would have an unfavorable opinion of Congress if it should begin impeachment hearings (31% very unfavorable, 26% mostly unfavorable). Of those people, 62% say Clinton’s actions were not serious enough to warrant impeachment; 27% say they do not want the country put through the process. Fully 90% say that even the support of their own representative for impeachment hearings would not change their view.

The public drew these conclusions in a period when they were relatively tuned in to the scandal: 36% were paying very close attention, up 10 percentage points since mid-August. Only 27% said they were not following the news closely or at all, down from 44% last month.

While Clinton’s job performance rating remains high at 61%, his personal connection to the American people shows a steady decline. Today, 64% of Americans say they do not like Clinton personally, up from 53% who felt this way in February soon after reports of the sex scandal broke.

Clinton’s overall support is underpinned by approval of his policies. Americans give Clinton credit for addressing the country’s major problems: 45% say he has made progress toward solving them and another 34% say he tried but failed. Fully 70% of the public likes his policies. But the number of people who say they like both Clinton and his policies slipped to 31% from 39% in early February.

As Congress heads home for the summer campaign season, both parties face tough sells for their election themes. Despite Democratic charges of a Republican-led do-nothing Congress, Americans see the 105th Congress as no different than others in recent memory. But the GOP will have to shore up its image on issues, as the public lines up with Democrats on the issue of health care reform.

The dominant perception of this Congress is that it has been more rancorous than usual: 51% of the public says members have been bickering and opposing one another more than usual. Asked about Congress’ productivity, only 15% of Americans say that it has accomplished less than most — 18% think it has accomplished more. Even among those who disapprove of the Republican leadership, 55% think that this Congress has been as active as previous ones.

These are the principal findings of a Pew Research Center telephone survey of 1,189 adults, conducted July 29-August 2, 1998. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

Public Wants Action on HMOs

Americans’ perception of an active Congress may reflect public support for several proposals to regulate health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and expand patient rights. Early this summer, the public ranked HMO regulation as very important to them personally and for the country.¹ This month, even when presented with arguments against new restrictions, most Americans back federal involvement.

Fully 53% of Americans support the creation of national standards for patients in HMOs and managed care plans; only 35% say that such regulation would “get the government too involved in health care.” Similarly, 53% of the public supports changing the law to allow patients to sue insurance companies that deny or delay medical benefits. Only 35% say that such changes would “increase the costs of insurance too much.”

Not surprisingly, the Democratic rank and file support both proposals: 65% favor national standards and 57% favor granting patients the right to sue their insurance companies.

Republicans are divided in their attitudes toward national standards (42% support vs. 44% oppose). A plurality favors legislation to allow lawsuits (46% vs. 40% oppose). Majorities of Independents support both proposals.

Americans’ preference for government regulation of managed care aligns them with the Democratic Party on this issue. A plurality of the public (39%) expresses more confidence in congressional Democrats “to do the right thing regarding the regulation of HMOs”; only 29% say the same of the Republicans on the Hill. The remainder are undecided.

A Back Seat for a Tax Cut

In another top issue on the congressional agenda — the allocation of a potential budget surplus — the public supports President Clinton’s call to use a surplus to stabilize Social Security and Medicare. A clear plurality (39%) choose this option over increased spending on domestic programs (29%), paying off the national debt (19%) or providing a tax cut (10%).

When the choice is simply between a tax cut and making the Social Security system financially sound, Americans overwhelmingly opt for shoring up the retirement program by a margin of more than three-to-one: 76% favor focusing on Social Security; 22% favor a tax cut. Even a 68% majority of Republicans prefer dealing with these entitlements over cutting taxes.

Like their elder counterparts, Generation Xers choose spending over taxes by a wide margin (65% vs. 33%, respectively). However, those between the ages of 18 and 29 are the least supportive of any age group. When given the option, they overwhelmingly select increased spending on domestic programs over stabilizing Social Security (48% vs. 19%, respectively).

Congressional Horse Race

Partisan preferences in congressional voting intentions have fluctuated throughout the year, with the two parties in a statistical dead heat as recently as June. Today, Democrats hold a 49%-to-42% advantage over Republicans among registered voters. The unsettled opinion on this question may reflect a lack of conviction and engagement. Just 13% of the public reports paying very close attention to news about the campaign.

Previous Pew Research Center surveys have shown greater indications of Republican strength. There is stronger support for incumbents this year than four years ago and an expected lower-than-usual turnout may also help GOP chances.²

Pre-election polling is tricky work. A number of unknown factors can stand in the way of accurate predictions — problems with identifying registered and likely voters, uncertainties about voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in candidate preference. But estimating voter preferences in biracial elections has been especially difficult. Pre-election surveys, even those taken just days before voters go to the polls, often substantially underestimate support for white candidates in races where the other candidate is African-American.

This phenomenon, which some pollsters call “racial slippage,” was a factor in at least four highly-competitive biracial contests during the 1980s and 1990. In three of the four elections, independent media polls consistently over-predicted the margin of victory for the black candidates. And in the Helms-Gantt 1990 Senate race, the polls under-predicted the margin of victory for the white candidate. The main cause of these errors seems to have been the difficulty of measuring support for the white candidates. Two separate polls of likely voters taken in the final week of the 1989 campaign for governor in Virginia, for example, showed Democrat L. Douglas Wilder leading by 9 to 11 percentage points. Days later, Wilder won the election by less than 7,000 votes — a margin of four-tenths of a percentage point.

Pollsters acknowledge that estimating voter preferences in biracial elections is especially difficult, in part because some white respondents may be reluctant to say they will not support a black candidate.¹

In this paper, we present another piece of the puzzle, based on insights that come from a unique survey experiment conducted by the Pew Research Center. Those who are reluctant to participate in telephone surveys — and therefore most likely to be missed in quick-turnaround polls that do not include callbacks and refusal conversions — are noticeably less sympathetic toward African-Americans. This suggests that pre-election surveys, which are bound by the time constraints of the election cycle, may underestimate support for white candidates in biracial elections in part because those who are less likely to participate in the polls are also more likely to oppose the black candidate.

Non-Response Bias in Survey Research

Survey non-response is widely recognized as a potential source of error that can reduce the accuracy of all types of polls. Most non-response in telephone surveys is attributable to two factors. First, some of the people (or households) in a sample are never reached, most likely because they are not at home or do not answer the telephone during the period when a poll is being conducted. Second, other people are reached but refuse to participate in the poll. All surveys are hampered by non-response. Even the National Elections Studies and the General Social Survey — academic surveys that are based on in-person interviewing — tend to have non-response rates of 25 to 35 percent, and non-response in telephone surveys can, by several estimates, be at least 10 percentage points higher (Brehm 1993, pp. 16-17).²

There are several ways to lower the non-response rates in surveys. Polls can be conducted over a longer time period, which provides more opportunities to place calls to hard-to-reach people. In addition, survey organizations can attempt refusal conversions by calling back people who initially declined to participate in a poll and trying to gain their cooperation. Both of these measures not only increase the cost of conducting a survey, but are especially difficult for polls conducted over the course of only a few days, as many pre-election polls are.³

Non-response can bias survey estimates if those who do not participate in a survey hold substantially different attitudes than those who do participate.⁴ Since those who are truly “non-respondents” are never interviewed, it is difficult to measure the extent to which the opinions of respondents and non-respondents actually differ. It is possible, however, to compare those who readily agreed to participate in a poll with those who at first refused — people who are most likely to be left out in surveys that do not have either the time or resources required to attempt refusal conversions. That is the approach taken here.

The following analysis is based on polling conducted in the Summer of 1997 by the Pew Research Center as part of a comparison of various survey methodologies. One component of the experiment was an extended refusal-conversion effort. All interview breakoffs and refusals were contacted again — and in many cases twice, if necessary — to attempt to complete the interview. In addition, many of those who refused to be interviewed after two calls were sent a conversion letter by priority mail before they were called a third time.

The results presented here offer new insights into a challenge that confronts all survey research — especially quickly-conducted pre-election polls that may not have either the time or financial resources required to gain the cooperation of those who at first refuse to participate in telephone surveys. We compare the attitudes of two groups of respondents: “amenable respondents” who agreed to participate in the poll the first time they were contacted, and “reluctant respondents” who initially refused to participate and cooperated only after one or more callbacks.⁵ Because the largest differences between the two groups emerge on racial attitudes, the following analysis is restricted to white respondents only.

Comparing Amenable and Reluctant Respondents

In most respects, amenable respondents and reluctant respondents are remarkably similar to one another.⁶ The group of reluctant respondents does not contain disproportionately more or less men, minorities, or younger people (see Table 1). There were also no notable differences in level of education between the two groups, and responses to three knowledge questions do not offer consistent evidence that reluctant respondents are significantly less informed about current events. A slightly greater number of amenable respondents knew that former Senator Bob Dole had recently loaned Newt Gingrich money to pay off the House Speaker’s ethics fines (39% among amenable respondents, compared to 32% among reluctant respondents). But two other knowledge questions — concerning majority control of the House of Representatives and identification of Microsoft CEO Bill Gates — did not reveal any statistically significant differences between the two groups.

Amenable and reluctant respondents did differ on one demographic measure: income. Nearly one-third (31%) of the reluctant respondents had family incomes of $50,000 or more, compared to 24 percent of amenable respondents.

Reluctant respondents do not appear to be more suspicious than amenable respondents in how they view other people. There are no significant differences between the proportion in each group who agree that people can be trusted, are likely to take advantage of others, or are likely to be helpful. Nor do amenable and reluctant respondents differ significantly in their views toward public opinion polls. Roughly two-thirds in each group said that polls work for — rather than against — the “best interests of the general public” (66% among amenable respondents compared to 65% among reluctant respondents), although as many in each group (65% and 68%, respectively) doubted that a random sample of 1,500 people can “accurately reflect the views” of the American public.

Critics of media polls have argued that surveys overstate support for Democratic candidates and underestimate conservative opinions — possibly because conservatives are more likely to refuse to participate in polls.⁷ But a number of measures give no indication that reluctant respondents are significantly more conservative than amenable respondents. Both groups of respondents include comparable percentages of Democrats and Republicans, and of self-described liberals and conservatives. Questions on a range of political values also revealed no differences between amenable and reluctant respondents.

Sharp Differences on Racial Attitudes

The two groups hold strikingly different views, however, on several race-related questions, with reluctant respondents significantly less sympathetic than amenable respondents toward African-Americans. Three of four questions measuring racial attitudes revealed statistically significant differences of nine percentage points or more between the two groups. Just 15% of reluctant respondents said they hold a “very favorable” opinion of blacks, for example, compared to 24% of amenable respondents. Similarly, fully 70% of reluctant respondents agreed with the statement that blacks who “can’t get ahead in this country are mostly responsible for their own condition,” while just 21% agreed that racial discrimination is the “main reason why many black people can’t get ahead”. This compares with a much narrower 54%­33% margin among amenable respondents.

The differences between amenable and reluctant respondents are equally large on a proposed national apology for slavery, an idea floated by President Clinton in the summer of 1997. Fully 68% of reluctant respondents said they opposed a national apology, compared to just 53% of amenable respondents.⁸

Race-of-interviewer effects seem to explain some — but not all — of the differences between amenable and reluctant respondents. Most of those who initially agreed to participate in the survey were called and interviewed by African-American interviewers (69%). In contrast, most of the reluctant respondents (66%), who were called back one or more times for a refusal conversion attempt, were called and ultimately interviewed by a non-black interviewer. Clearly, the way some white respondents answer questions about racial issues may vary, depending on the race of the person conducting the interview. Even in telephone surveys, white respondents have been found to be much less likely to reveal racially-biased attitudes when being interviewed by a black person (Cotter, Cohen, and Coulter 1982; Hatchett and Schuman 1975-76). Consequently, the differences in racial attitudes between amenable and reluctant respondents might reasonably be explained by the differences in the race of the interviewers between the two groups.

There are substantial race-of-interviewer effects on questions concerning racial issues, and these effects can be seen among both amenable and reluctant respondents. Amenable respondents who were interviewed by a non-black interviewer were more likely than those interviewed by a black interviewer to blame blacks for their own condition, and less likely to favor a national apology for slavery. Similarly, reluctant respondents who were interviewed by a non-black interviewer expressed less favorable views of blacks and were more strongly opposed to a slavery apology than those interviewed by a black interviewer.

Nonetheless, when comparing only those respondents who were interviewed by a non-black interviewer, thus controlling for any interviewer effects, reluctant respondents remain consistently less sympathetic toward blacks. The largest gap can be seen on the issue of a national apology for slavery. Reluctant respondents who were interviewed by a non-black interviewer opposed an apology by a margin of 74% to 21%, while amenable respondents interviewed by a non-black opposed it by a much more narrow 59% to 33% margin. Statistically significant gaps are also apparent on two other race measures. On favorability toward blacks, 12% of reluctant respondents characterize their opinion as “very favorable” compared to 23% of amenable respondents. Fully 72% of reluctant respondents say blacks are responsible for their own condition, compared to 61% of amenable respondents.

Remarkably, on this same measure, there is a significant difference in opinion even between respondents who were interviewed by black interviewers. Two-thirds (66%) of the reluctant respondents blame blacks for their own circumstances compared to 51% of amenable respondents.

In fact, the differences between amenable and reluctant respondents on race questions are statistically significant even when a number of attitudinal and methodological factors are taken into account. The evidence for this is in Table 2, which presents the results of two multiple regression equations. Respondents’ overall opinion toward blacks is the dependent variable in one equation, and their views concerning why “many black people can’t get ahead” is the dependent variable in the other.

Both equations include variables controlling for a range of differences across respondents. As noted above, the survey data used in this analysis were collected as part of a broader comparison of methodologies. The “amenable respondents” analyzed here come from the standard, five-day survey which used a systematic but non-random selection procedure within households, while roughly 40% of the “reluctant respondents” analyzed here come from the more rigorous survey, which used a random-selection procedure. Therefore, the estimations include a dichotomous variable controlling for whether respondents were polled as part of the standard or rigorous survey. In addition, another variable is included to account for any race-of-interviewer effects. The estimations include several other controls, including variables for sex, age, education, income, region (a dummy variable for respondents from Southern states), and a measure of political ideology. Finally, a dummy variable is included to estimate the differences between amenable and reluctant respondents.

Though the regression models have little predictive power, they provide further evidence for the main conclusions drawn here: as a group, reluctant respondents are significantly less sympathetic than amenable respondents toward blacks, even when political ideology, level of education, race of interviewer, and other factors are taken into account. On the question of why many blacks can’t get ahead, being a reluctant respondent is strongly and significantly (p < .01) related to seeing blacks themselves, rather than racial discrimination, as responsible for their current situation. This pattern is evident even when controlling for a number of other statistically significant predictors, including education, region, ideology, and race of interviewer. Similarly, reluctant respondents are on average less likely to hold a favorable opinion of blacks, although the results based on this question are somewhat weaker. In this estimation fewer variables are significantly related to favorability toward blacks, but the coefficient for those who initially refused to participate in the poll remains statistically significant (p < .01).

Conclusion

The sharp differences between amenable and reluctant respondents on race-related questions may offer new insights into the difficulties involved in pre-election polling in biracial elections. In a number of competitive biracial contests in recent decades, surveys conducted even a few days before voters went to the polls have substantially underestimated support for the white candidate. The results presented here suggest that this phenomenon, sometimes called “racial slippage”, may be due in part to the inability of quickly-conducted pre-election polls to reach reluctant respondents — people who are less likely to participate in polls and, just as important, much less sympathetic toward African-Americans. Significant differences between amenable and reluctant respondents are evident on three of four questions involving race relations, even when race-of-interviewer effects and a number of other attitudinal factors are taken into account.

Nonetheless, the evidence presented here is only suggestive. The surveys used for this analysis were not themselves pre-election polls — rather, they were conducted during the summer of 1997 as part of a broader comparison of survey methodologies. Consequently, there is no direct evidence that the differences between amenable and reluctant respondents on racial issues would translate into similar differences in the voting behavior of these two groups in biracial elections. At the same time, the significant gaps between amenable and reluctant respondents on race-related questions are consistent with the pattern of underestimating support for white candidates in biracial contests. This suggests non-response may be an especially important concern for pre-election polling in these biracial elections.

REFERENCES

• Brehm, John. 1993. The Phantom Respondents: Opinion Surveys and Political Representation. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
• Cotter, Patrick, Jeffrey Cohen, and Philip B. Coulter. 1982. Race-of-Interviewer Effects in Telephone Interviews. Public Opinion Quarterly 46:278-284.
• Crespi, Irving. 1988. Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

President Clinton’s lofty performance ratings are benefiting the Democratic Party, which is now in a stronger position with American voters than it has been for some time. In contrast, continuing negative perceptions of Republican congressional leaders are hamstringing the image of their party. By the biggest margin of the decade, the public sees the Democrats as the party better able to bring about changes the country needs. The Democrats enjoy a big advantage in public confidence over their Republican rivals on key national agenda items such as improving education, jobs, health care and the environment. Generic support for Democratic congressional candidates has also significantly increased over the past year.

A nationwide Pew Research Center poll conducted this past weekend found 52% of registered voters inclined to vote for Democratic congressional candidates, 40% for Republican candidates and 8% undecided. A comparable mid-1997 poll found a narrow 48% to 45% margin of support in the Democrats’ favor.

The new opinion survey also finds improved evaluations of Democrats relative to the Republicans since 1994 on seven of 11 issue questions. The GOP now gets a clearly greater vote of confidence on only three items: promoting morality and personal responsibility, making America competitive in the world economy and making wise decisions about foreign policy. Significantly, Americans are evenly divided over which party is better able to deal with taxes and reduce crime, two issues that have traditionally favored the GOP. (See box on page 2.)

Clinton’s high approval rating — 65% in this survey — accounts for some of his party’s new-found support. Fully 70% of those who approve of his job performance express probable support for Democratic House candidates next fall. Public opinion about Republican leaders at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue is far less positive. Just 43% of Americans approve of the job GOP congressional leaders are doing, and only 62% of those people say they will vote for Republican candidates in November.

Republican leaders are even more poorly regarded personally. House Speaker Newt Gingrich is rated favorably by 36% and unfavorably by 49%, which is nonetheless a distinct improvement over his 28% to 65% rating of a year ago. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott continues to be an unknown quantity to most Americans and his evaluations are mixed from those who know him: 16% favorable, 18% unfavorable. In contrast, Vice President Al Gore and Hillary Rodham Clinton are rated favorably by 59% and 65%, respectively.

But Strong Reelect Sentiment

A high level of expressed support for incumbents is the best sign in the survey for GOP chances of retaining control of the House. Fully 63% of registered voters say they would like to see their incumbent reelected. That percentage slipped to as low as 49% in 1994, just before voters gave control of the Congress to the Republicans for the first time in 40 years. As the election nears, the generic measure of party support is a better indicator of the likely outcome of the election than is support for incumbents.¹ But this strong early endorsement of incumbents reflects the ability of the GOP majority to go back to its districts and make a case for continuity with voters.

Gender and race continue to be the most important demographic correlates of support for congressional candidates. Generic support for the two parties is about even among whites, but runs seven-to-one for Democrats among African Americans. Women favor Democratic candidates by a 56% to 37% margin, while preferences are about even among men (47% to 45%). There are also some clear generational patterns in the Pew survey results. At one extreme seniors favor Democrats over Republicans 55% to 38%, while the margin narrows to 47% to 40% among Generation Xers. Middle aged people’s preferences fall between the two extremes.