Voters were much less pleased with the presidential campaign this year than in 1992. The American electorate was less satisfied with its choice of candidates than in the two previous presidential elections and much more unhappy with the campaign process, particularly compared to 1992. The candidates, the debates, the press, the parties and the poll takers all got lower ratings in the Center’s quadrennial post-election survey. But voters were particularly hard on themselves. Just 39% of respondents felt “the voters” deserved a grade of A or B, down from 61% in 1992 and 49% in 1988.

On a positive note voters felt that they learned enough to make an informed choice between candidates and fewer judged 1996 a mudslinging campaign than 1992. But these favorable developments were offset by complaints that issues were less discussed than four years ago and by greater displeasure with the candidates themselves than in the two previous presidential elections.

The poll of 1,012 respondents conducted Thursday – Sunday, Nov. 7-10, found voters of two minds about the split decision they rendered on election day. A two-thirds majority (65%) was happy that the GOP continued control of the Congress, but only a thin majority (53%) was pleased that Bill Clinton won reelection. In part this is because Republicans and Dole supporters were comparatively more unhappy about Clinton’s win than were Democrats about the outcome of the Congressional elections. Nearly four-in- ten Clinton voters (39%) were pleased to see the GOP maintain control. Even 38% of those who voted for the Democrat from their Congressional district applauded the overall GOP victory. In contrast, only 22% of Republicans and half as many Dole voters (11%) said they are happy Clinton won reelection.

Only about half of all voters (51%) said they were satisfied with the Presidential candidates this year, down from 61% who said they were satisfied in 1992 and 62% in 1988. (See table.) Fully 77% of Clinton voters felt satisfied with the candidates, but two- thirds of Dole voters and 78% of Perot voters were dissatisfied with the candidates. Clinton voters in 1996 were less satisfied with their candidate than Clinton voters in 1992, 77% vs. 86%, while Dole voters were only marginally less satisfied than were Bush voters in 1992.

Asked to grade each election participant on a scale of A to F, voters gave the highest marks to Clinton and his party. He was the only election participant given A or B by a majority of voters (58%). By comparison, only a third of voters graded Dole A or B (34%), and only 27% gave the same high grades to Perot. Similarly, the Democratic party received substantially more A’s and B’s than the Republican party.

While voters were displeased with their own performance, they were even harder on the paid performers in the national elections: the press, pollsters, consultants and talk show hosts. About a third of voters gave the press, consultants and talk show hosts an A or a B (29%, 30% and 28%, respectively). Some 18% gave the press a failing grade. Significantly, almost all groups of election participants received a lower grade now than in 1992. The press lost 8% points in these top grade categories; pollsters and consultants dropped 13% and 14% points, respectively; and talk show hosts fell 21% points. Among all voters, Clinton and his party received lower grades this time around, while grades for Dole as the Republican candidate and for his party were virtually unchanged. Among supporters of the candidates, Dole received an A or B from 52% of his supporters, compared to 58% of Bush supporters in 1992; more than 85% of Clinton supporters gave their candidate a top grade (A or B) in both years.

Voters were not only less happy with the cast of characters in the election but also with its issue content. Fully 65% said there was less discussion of issues this year than previously. In contrast, in 1992 a 59% majority said there had been more discussion of issues in that campaign than previously.

The 1996 debates did not help many voters make up their minds, perhaps because of the perceived lack of issue content. While 1992 was a banner year for the Presidential debates — a large majority of voters (70%) found them helpful in making up their minds — only 41% of this year’s voters said the debates were helpful. This complaint is partially driven by Perot voters, only 21% of whom felt that the 1996 debates without their Reform Party candidate were helpful (compared to 84% in 1992). But Dole voters were also much less likely than ’92 Bush voters to find the debates helpful (only 32% of Dole supporters said the debates were helpful, compared to 59% of Bush voters). And even Clinton supporters found the debates less worthwhile this year than in 1992.

Bill Clinton’s lead over Bob Dole and Ross Perot remains as wide and deep at the end of the final week of the campaign as it has been for the past two months, despite the growing controversy about Democratic campaign finance irregularities. The Pew Research Center’s final survey of 1,211 likely voters, taken October 31 through November 3, finds 49% supporting Clinton, 36% Dole, 8% Perot, 1% other candidates, with 6% undecided. When the undecided voters are allocated, the Center’s best estimate of the probable outcome of the election is 52% for Clinton, 38% for Dole, 9% for Perot, and 1% for other candidates.

Voters favor Democratic candidates over Republicans for the House of Representatives by a much narrower margin: 48% of likely voters say they are inclined to back a Democratic candidate in their district, 44% a Republican candidate, with 8% undecided. These figures are virtually unchanged from those obtained in a comparable nationwide survey conducted two weeks ago.

However, like previous surveys, the current poll continues to indicate that most voters (60%) think their incumbent deserves reelection and voters feel that local rather than national issues are influencing their congressional voting intentions. Both findings would cut against a change in party control of Congress. These findings, along with the fact that the generic measure of party support for the House is a less accurate predictor of the popular vote in presidential years than in off years, make it impossible to conclude based on this survey that the Democrats will wrest control of the Congress from the GOP.

The outcome of the presidential election looks more certain. Clinton’s strong support compares favorably with that of other winning presidential candidates in the final Gallup Polls 1960- 1988. (See trend table) The number of voters who say they might switch to another candidate has fallen for all three contenders over the past month as the electorate firms up its choice. Just 8% of voters say they might change their minds and vote for Dole. Perot’s support is marginally higher in the current poll than in the Center’s mid- October survey (8% vs. 6%), but only another 7% of voters say they might reconsider and support him. The Reform Party candidate is only getting the support of 29% of those who say they voted for him in 1992.

Potential damage from recent disclosures of campaign finance irregularities appears to be less than anticipated. Only half of voters say they have been closely following the news about charges of improper campaign contributions to the Democrats by Indonesian business interests (23% very closely, 33% fairly closely). And merely 7%of Clinton backers say the charges have raised serous doubts in their minds about voting for him.

More broadly, Dole has failed to rally his own Republican Party to his cause in numbers comparable to past GOP standard bearers. Of those self-identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican, 75% say they support him compared to 85% of Democrats and Democrat-leaners supporting Clinton. Other voting blocs traditionally inclined toward the GOP are also showing lukewarm backing for Dole, including white men (39% vs. 41% for Clinton), Evangelical Protestants, and affluent voters.

In contrast, Clinton is benefiting from an unusually high level of loyalty from key Democratic groups, including women (56% vs. 29% for Dole), lower income voters, members of minority groups, and labor union members . On balance, the President is carrying many groups not often found in the Democratic columns in presidential elections, including whites, suburbanites, and middle class Americans. And he has won over swing voters, including Independents (45% vs. 25% for Dole), and white Catholics (53% vs. 29% for Dole).

Nationally, GOP candidates for Congress are getting much more loyalty from party members than Dole – 90% vs 80%. Similarly, GOP candidates are running much stronger than Dole among affluent voters, Independents, and white males. Democrats for Congress are getting more backing from labor than they enjoyed in 1994. In the current poll voters from labor households are supporting Democrats over Republicans by a 60% to 28% margin compared to only 55% to 36% in 1994.

The campaign is closing with Americans expressing record low interest compared to recent elections. Only 34% say they have been following news about the election very closely, compared to 55% in October, 1992 and 43% in October, 1988. Similarly, 67% of registered voters say they have thought quite a lot about the Tuesday elections, compared to 77% in 1992 and 73% in 1988. The Pew Research Center estimates that only about 50% of age eligible voters will cast a ballot next Tuesday.

Bill Clinton’s current favorability rating, at 57%, is about average for a major party candidate. But Dole’s, at 43%, is lower than Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis’ 48% when he lost in 1988, and on a par with President George Bush’s 42% when he lost in 1992. Clinton has had the good fortune of running against the two lowest rated presidential candidates in the past forty years.

Dole’s poor showing appears to reflect in part the unpopularity of the Republican 104th Congress. Dole’s favorability ratings dropped between 1994, before the GOP took control of Congress, and the end of 1995. His ratings fell further after he became the putative GOP nominee in early spring, perhaps because voters came to see him as not understanding the problems of average Americans and as not likable personally.

Bush received only 38% of the popular vote in his bid for reelection. Democrat George McGovern and Republican Barry Goldwater also received only about 40% of the vote when they lost, but each rated considerably higher in personal favorability (53% and 51%, respectively). The candidates with the highest favorability won the elections with two exceptions: Richard Nixon had a higher rating than John F. Kennedy (74% vs. 64%) when he lost in 1960, and Jimmy Carter rated higher than Ronald Reagan (62% vs. 58%) when he lost in 1980.

The following table of these ratings also shows that the combined favorability standings of the two major candidates have been lower during the last three presidential campaigns than in all previous elections for which data is available. It may be that voters feel freer today than in past generations to criticize personally and hold in disfavor a man running for the presidency of the United States. Whatever the reason, the last candidate to reach 60% favorability was Reagan in 1984, and the last one to reach 70% was Carter in 1976. These figures are consistent with declining public confidence in institutions in the post-Watergate, post-Vietnam era.

After two presidential debates and six weeks of the general campaign Bill Clinton’s lead over Bob Dole is as large as it was in early September. The course of the race has changed little with the passing of each important campaign milestone. The only observable consequence of the debates is that the percentage of voters who say they might switch to Bob Dole is lower than it was just prior to the first debate (11% vs. 16%). The Pew voter typology, which divides the electorate by core values, finds Dole unable to forge a coalition of staunch conservatives, moderates and populists.

The unchanged standings also reflect the breadth of the Clinton coalition. The President is getting strong support from the left, right and center of his own party and has won over working class Independents who had big doubts about him as recently as a year ago.

In stark contrast, Dole has not only failed to attract Independents, but he has been unable to rally key Republican segments. His support is weak among economically squeezed populist conservatives. He has also turned off moderate economic conservatives, with whom Bill Clinton has made inroads. Dole only gets overwhelming support from Republicans who are both economically and socially conservative.

The Pew Research Center’s voter classification system (typology) categorizes voters based on their political values, party affiliation, and political participation into ten groups — four Democratic, three Independent and three Republican. In the summer of 1994 when voter support was about equally divided between Clinton (39%) and Dole (36%), and when Perot had a larger following (20%), moderate Democratic groups were not enthusiastic about the President.[1. The typology is described in an appendix to this report (see “About the Typology”).

But in the current survey, right-of-center Democrats give Clinton a strong vote of confidence. Fully 86% of moderate New Democrats say they would vote for Clinton if the election were being held today, as do 74% of older, socially conservative New Dealers. More liberal groups are even more enthusiastic. Nine out of ten voters among the liberal Seculars and among the disadvantaged Partisan Poor favor Clinton.

A profile of left of center groups in this election follows.

• New Democrats(moderate on economic issues, strong environmentalists) Clinton has gained 25 % points with this group since 1994. Opinions of Dole have turned sharply negative (62% unfavorable now vs. 34% in 1994). Clinton is not seen as weak on personal character. His record and presidential attributes impress this group.
• New Dealers (older, unionist, socially conservative) Clinton’s support is weakest and hostility to him strongest (23% unfavorable) here among all Democratic groups. But New Dealers have also turned against Dole (80% unfavorable, vs. 43% in 1994). The character issue dogs Clinton with this group, but he wins points on Medicare (by 57% to 5%, they prefer his position over Dole’s). A key attraction for many is that Clinton sidetracked GOP Congressional efforts. New Dealers, who often defected to Ronald Reagan, are the Democratic group least satisfied with the quality of the presidential candidates this year. One in three (30%) would prefer a GOP Congress if Clinton is re-elected.
• Seculars (tolerant, progressive, low religious practice) These affluent liberals are most likely to cite party (perhaps a surrogate for ideology) as their main reason for backing Clinton. Worried that health care, education and other social issues are being overlooked, Seculars prefer Clinton over Dole on Medicare by a margin of 65% to 4%. Three-quarters (74%) think Dole’s tax cut would be the wrong thing for the country. The group is most likely to express anti-incumbent sentiment in the race for Congress.
• Partisan Poor (disadvantaged, pro-social welfare) This reliably Democratic group now supports Clinton at the same level as it does Democratic Congressional candidates (90%). It cares little about the character issue. Instead, like New Dealers, it is more likely to prefer Clinton because he stymied GOP
• Congressional efforts. Economically anxious and concerned about the safety net, this group prefers Clinton’s position on Medicare over Dole’s, 73% to 6%.

Fractious Republicans

There is much less unity among Republican groups. Only two in three populists (Moralists) are backing Dole. The former Senate Majority leader has actually lost a lot of ground among Libertarians since 1994, and is trailing Clinton among them. However, hardcore conservatives, who intensely dislike the President, are solidly behind Dole.

Enterprisers (affluent economic and social conservatives) This is one of two groups in which Dole has gained ground since 1994. Although strongly anti-Clinton (61% very unfavorable opinion), even this classic GOP group lacks enthusiasm for the GOP presidential nominee: nearly half (44%) say they are voting for Dole mainly because they don’t like his opponents. Enterprisers are the only group in the electorate with a majority (61%) believing the Dole tax cut is good for the country.

Moralists (social conservatives, critical of big business and big government) The most economically anxious group among Republicans, Moralists are not convinced they will be better off with Dole in the White House. They don’t think a 15% tax cut would be good for the country. They believe labor unions and business corporations have too much influence on who becomes President (57% and 62%, respectively). One-in-three (33%) have very unfavorable views of the President.

Libertarians (socially tolerant, conservatives) These moderates are unimpressed by Dole and his tax proposal. In fact, more of them have a favorable opinion of Clinton than Dole (53% vs. 35%), and more believe a 15% tax cut would be the wrong rather than the right thing for the country (50% vs. 40%). Moral appeals and Clinton’s character problems have little impact on Libertarians. Two-thirds (67%) say Clinton’s record is what matters most, while only 16% think character is most important. Among Republican groups Libertarians feel most strongly that churches have too much influence on who gets elected President.

Independents

While party unity and the lack of it are big factors in the race, the President’s success in wooing the working class Independents represents the biggest percentage turn around since 1994. Perhaps with an assist from GOP Congressional leader Newt Gingrich, he has succeeded with the waitress moms and double shift dads who have no firm anchor in either party. Clinton has also held his own with the most distrustful and alienated voter group, the Embittered, whose natural tendency is to vote against incumbents.

New Economy Independents (middle income, weak party ties, female, mixed liberal/conservative values)

These voters are far more likely to have favorable views of Clinton than Dole now (63% vs. 26%), whereas two years ago the two men were rated about evenly (Clinton 58%, Dole 54%). Economic anxiety remains high among them. They worry about the social safety net; by a margin of 47% to 11%, they prefer Clinton’s approach to Medicare over Dole’s. They want to hear more from the candidates about social issues, including education and health care. In their view, Clinton’s presidential character (i.e. performance in office) outweighs concerns about his personal character. They give Clinton a big edge over Dole as the candidate who would use good judgment in a crisis (58% vs. 22%), is a strong leader (53% vs. 26%), cares about people like me (50% vs. 19%) and shares my values (49% vs. 28%).

The Embittered (cynical, distrustful, low income) A majority of this group holds an unfavorable opinion of both presidential candidates. It is the only non- Republican group in which Dole appears to have gained any ground since 1994. Attacks on Clinton’s character have taken a toll on Clinton’s image in this group, which is economically pressured and supports Dole’s 15 % tax cut proposal.

Bill Clinton continues to hold a commanding lead over Bob Dole and Ross Perot, but it is not because voters are delighted with his record, or because the electorate is euphoric about economic conditions, or because people expect better things to come. American voters are modest in their enthusiasm for Bill Clinton, except in comparison to his Republican and Reform party rivals.

Dole, for his part, has made little progress in September. The President is drowning him out in the news media, and voters are coming to judge Dole’s campaign approach as too negative.

A Pew Research Center nationwide survey of 1,517 registered voters on average gave Clinton a grade of C for his performance as president. Further, the electorate which largely expects a Clinton victory in November is not optimistic about progress on major national problems over the next four years.

Americans rate their personal financial condition somewhat better than they did two years ago, and much better than they did four years ago, but a large percentage still say they do not earn enough to lead the kind of life to which they aspire (55%), and rate their economic situation negatively (44%). And most Americans continue to think that the American economy is “off track”… except if Bob Dole says so.

When a random half of the respondents in the Pew survey was asked if they thought the American economy was off track, many more said yes than no, 58% vs. 36%. But when the other half sample was asked if they agreed with “Bob Dole’s charge that the American economy is off track”, only 49% said yes, 43% said no.

This survey experiment reflects Dole’s inability to capitalize upon lingering economic discontent and other Clinton vulnerabilities. The trend in voting intentions is the bottom line sign of the Dole campaign’s ineffectiveness. Clinton’s lead over Dole and Perot (51% to 35% and 7%, respectively) among all registered voters is similar to our findings in early September. The margin is somewhat smaller among likely voters (50% vs. 38% and 6%, respectively), but there are few signs that Dole has made progress in changing people’s minds.

The proportion of voters who say they have definitely decided not to vote for Dole remains ominously high (44%) and the proportion who say there is a chance they might vote for Dole is almost as modest as it was for Bush four years ago (16% vs. 12%). Dislike of Clinton continues to be the dominant motive for supporting the former Senate Majority Leader.

Voters say they are hearing more about Clinton (47%) than Dole (31%) in the news media these days. Moreover, a 53% majority think the Republican candidate has been too critical of his opponent. Only 21% think Clinton has been too critical of Dole.

Dole’s campaign objectives of rallying Republicans and narrowing the gender gap remain mostly unfulfilled. Fewer than 80% of Republicans and 70% of Independents who lean Republican say they intend to vote for their party’s standard bearer and he continues to trail the President by 22 percentage points among women. Similarly, Dole has been unable to narrow the Clinton margin among many of the dominant population groups that have supported Republican presidential candidates in recent elections — upper middle income voters, whites, and suburbanites.

Dole’s failure to have an impact may be related to rising public confidence in the economy, but the survey finds large percentages of voters who remain financially pressured and/or displeased with their wages despite the favorable trend. More than half (55%) rate their own financial situation excellent or good, (up from 49% in 1994 and 42% in 1992). However, 44% say they are in only fair (34%) or poor (10%) shape. Dole runs further behind Clinton among voters unhappy with their finances. Even financially pressured Republicans are less inclined to vote for Bob Dole than are their fellow party members who are better off. In contrast, money woes among Democrats do not discourage voting for Clinton.

Unable to make economic discontent work for him, Dole also has not been able to fully exploit voter misgivings about Clinton’s performance. Close to half the electorate (47%) grades the President A or B, but just as many rate his four years in office less positively: 32% grade him C and 20% give him a D or F. Those who give Clinton A’s or B’s largely say they will vote for him, while most who give him a D or F are inclined to vote for Dole. However, among those who give Clinton a C grade, Dole leads the president by only a relatively narrow 46% to 35% margin.

Looking forward, voter expectations about the future are correspondingly modest. Most do not see the country making a great deal of progress in dealing with its big problems over the next four years. Fewer than one in three see progress on reducing the budget deficit, curtailing drug abuse and improving jobs. Somewhat greater percentages expect progress on health care reform and improving education. Those who expect Clinton to win re-election (79% of all voters) are less optimistic in many areas than those who think Dole will prevail in November.

This is not to say that voters see no difference between the positions of the candidates. Majorities think Clinton and Dole differ on the economy, tax policy, moral questions, and the role of government. Fewer see major differences on foreign policy, and the tobacco issue. Interestingly, Clinton supporters see fewer policy differences between the candidates than do Dole’s backers, except on the economy and tobacco.

Congress Close

While the presidential race seems wide open, Congressional voting intentions continue to divide closely. Among all registered voters, 49% are inclined to vote for a Democrat in their district and 43% for a Republican (with 8% undecided or saying they will vote for a candidate of another party) . A Pew survey earlier in the month found a similar 51% to 43% margin on these races. Also, as in the earlier survey, when results are based upon likely voters the race tightens to a virtual draw: 48% for the Democratic candidate, 46% for the Republican. [NOTE: The likely voter base assumes a turnout level comparable to the level of participation in 1988.]

Several factors should be considered, in addition to turnout, in weighing the significance of the Democratic lead. Anti- incumbency sentiment is less prevalent now than two years ago (17% vs. 29%) and voters say they will be thinking about local issues to a greater extent than they did in 1994 (38% vs. 27%). Both factors may help the GOP. Cutting in the opposite direction, more people say there is an excellent or good chance they will vote a straight Democratic ticket (36%) than say they will vote a straight Republican ticket (25%).

These cross currents, along with the Center’s finding that generic measures are less accurate in presidential years, suggest that the outcome of the struggle for control of the House may be unforeseeable until election day. More evident are the clear demographic splits in Congressional voting intentions. The GOP leads among men, affluent voters, whites, especially white evangelical Protestants, and white Southerners. There is more support for Democratic candidates among women, voters 50 years of age and older, Easterners and Midwesterners, city dwellers, white Catholics and poorer people. The swing categories, where voting intentions are even, consist mainly of voters under 50, suburbanites, and middle income voters. ¹

Minds Made Up?

As the campaign moved into its final month, fewer Americans intend to watch the televised debates between presidential candidates this year than in recent elections and few think the debates will be crucial to their decision on election day.

Only 30% of the public said the debates will matter to them, while fully 65% — two out of three respondents — said their minds were already made up. Men more often than women have their minds made up, as do older Americans, those with the least education, Democrats, likely voters, Dole supporters, and Clinton supporters. The debate matters most to young men (under 30), middle aged women (30 to 49), Independents, 1992 Perot voters, swing voters, and ticket splitters who say they will vote both for Clinton and a Republican Congressional candidate.

Unlike previous elections, only a minority of registered voters (43%) say they are “very likely” to watch the debates; this compares to 67% in 1992 and 55% in both 1988 and 1984. Among those highly likely to watch are the most and least educated and regular listeners to talk radio.

Of the 77% who said they are very or somewhat likely to watch the debates, almost twice as many said their minds were already made up (48%) as said the debates matter (27%). In this respect the figures parallel 1984 when a majority said they had already made up their minds (54%), twice as many as those who said the debate would matter (26%). [Comparable survey data for 1992 and 1988 is not available.] [NOTE: CBS/New York Times poll.]

As the fall campaign begins, Bill Clinton holds a solid lead over challengers Bob Dole and Ross Perot. But the race for control of Congress remains close. While the Democrats have gained some ground on the GOP over the course of the summer, American voters have a more positive view of incumbents than they did two years ago and the Congressional vote seems more dependent on local matters than in 1994.

At the top of the ticket, Clinton’s lead is impressive. Not only do more voters now back him than did in mid-summer, but a greater proportion say they would be casting a vote for Clinton rather than against Dole and Perot, if the election were being held today.

The latest Pew Research Center survey finds 52% of a national sample of registered voters saying they would vote for Clinton, compared to 34% for Dole and 8% for Ross Perot. Six weeks ago, prior to the political conventions, Clinton led by a significantly smaller margin (44% vs. 34% and 16%, respectively). In the current survey, half of Clinton backers say they support him strongly and most say they are voting for him, not against his opponents.

In contrast to Clinton, the net effect of the conventions has been to weaken Dole’s position. While half the GOP candidate’s backers say they strongly support him, much of his backing is based on opposition to Clinton and Perot. More ominously, the proportion of voters saying that they have decided definitely not to vote for the former Senate majority leader has risen from 40% in late July to 47% in the current poll. Four years ago, a Center survey found about as many voters (44%) saying they had definitely decided not to vote for George Bush who then trailed Clinton by 15%. By way of comparison, no fewer than 78% of respondents in the new survey have firmly decided against voting for Ross Perot.

Despite a short-lived post convention bounce, Dole has not rallied the expected numbers of Republicans to his side. Only 81% of Republicans and 59% of Independents who lean Republican back him. Clinton gets 90% of Democrats and 79% of Independents who lean Democratic.

Dole has gained no ground either with regard to his personal image or perceived abilities relative to Clinton. As was the case prior to the conventions, Clinton is picked over Dole as personally likable and connecting well with ordinary people by margins of 3 to 1 or better. The President is chosen over his challenger by nearly 2 to 1 for having new ideas and caring about people. Clinton is also graded better than Dole for using good judgement in a crisis, sharing the voter’s values and for being a strong leader. Dole barely rates better than Clinton on character dimensions. A slim plurality of respondents (7 percentage points) choose Dole over Clinton for being honest and truthful, and about equal percentages select the two candidates for keeping promises.

Generally, the President has a lesser advantage on abilities than on personal characteristics. But he wins over Dole by significant pluralities on seven out of eight performance dimensions. The exception is that Dole is credited as potentially better able to cut taxes (by a 42% to 34% margin). Essentially the same proportion favors Clinton as Dole for balancing the budget (41% and 38%, respectively). By a 57% to 29% margin, voters have more confidence in Clinton to improve education, which is typically a Democratic strength, but they also favor him over Dole for protecting and strengthening families (50% to 36%), normally a GOP strong point.

Compared to late July, Clinton enjoys a slightly wider margin over Dole for improving economic conditions (49% to 35%), reflecting voters’ views about abortion (46% to 28%), and making wise decisions about foreign policy (44% to 39%). Despite Dole’s attacks on Clinton following the release of a government report indicating increased drug use among teens, voters think that the President is better able to deal with the drug problem than his opponent (44% to 32%).

Republican Defectors

Underscoring Dole’s problem with defections from the GOP, significant percentages of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican have more faith in Clinton than in their party’s standard bearer to improve education and to better represent their views on abortion. The desertion pattern is even more striking on the personal dimension. By margins of almost 2 to 1, Independents who lean Republican think that Clinton is more likeable than Dole and connects better with ordinary people.

Clinton’s gains in support since mid-summer have been greatest among Independents. His lead among Independents who lean Democratic has increased, while at the same time he has retained his pre-convention margin among Independents who lean Republican.

Demographically, the President also polls much better than six weeks ago among younger voters, whites, and middle and lower income groups. He also gained support among white evangelical Protestants over this period, but Dole continues to lead among this largely Republican, socially conservative group. Clinton has a comfortable lead among white Catholics and a smaller yet significant one among white mainline Protestants.

Dole support has increased since late July only among one sizeable demographic group — white Southern men. Clinton, in contrast, has gained support among white men outside the South and among white women in all parts of the country in the past six weeks.

Democratic Gains

As Clinton’s lead has increased, support for his party’s Congressional candidates also has grown somewhat. Voters in the Pew Research Center sample were inclined to vote for Democrats over Republicans in House races by a margin of 51% to 43%, up from 47% to 46% in late July. But a number of crosscurrents undercut that small lead. In particular, the poll found much more support for incumbents than two years ago. Fully 62% of respondents said they would like to see their own incumbent Congressional representative reelected compared to 49% in early October 1994. Similarly, while that same 1994 survey found a strong majority of 56% to 28% against the reelection of most members, voters in the current survey divided 43% to 43% on this question.

Voters are also more inclined than two years ago to say that local issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote in their district (42% vs. 27%). In the current survey, only 18% said that national issues would have the largest bearing on their choice. Most respondents (51%) said Clinton would not be a factor in their vote for Congress. Of those who said he would be a factor, votes for his party’s candidate slightly out weighed votes against (24% vs. 18%). Two years ago that margin was reversed (17% for to 23% against ).

An Eye On Newt

Newt Gingrich may be more of a factor than Clinton in the battle for Congress. Fully 57% of respondents said he would be a consideration in their vote. More than half of them (36%) said they would be voting against the speaker, compared to 21% who said they will be voting for him. Gingrich in this way threatens to be a greater negative for the GOP than Clinton would be a positive value for the Democrats. For example, both Clinton and Gingrich are cited as positive factors by 44% of respondents who will vote for the Democratic and Republican Congressional candidates, respectively; but fully 62% of those backing Democrats said they were voting against the Speaker and only 37% of those voting for Republicans said they were voting against the President.

Gingrich’s unpopularity may be diluted to some extent by support for the idea that the Presidency and the Congress should not be in the hands of the same party. Many believe that if Clinton should win, it would be better if the GOP controls Congress. Republicans put a higher priority on keeping control of the legislature than do Democrats (86% vs. 77%), with Independents tending to favor GOP rather than Democratic control (46% vs. 42%).

Flagging Interest

Given the closeness of the Congressional race and conflicting voter attitudes, turn out may be a decisive factor. And it may well work to the GOP’s advantage. Measures of interest in the campaign and turnout indicators are significantly lower than they were four years and even eight years ago. Only 48% of respondents said they have given a lot of thought to the presidential election, compared to 63% in September 1992 and 57% in September 1988. In the new poll, just 24% said they were paying close attention to campaign news compared to 42% in September 1992.

Analysis suggests that lower turnout would help both Dole and perhaps more meaningfully, Republican Congressional candidates. Support levels are shown below for all registered voters, for likely voters if turnout is comparable to 1992, and for likely voters if turnout is comparable to 1988.

One-Worders For Kemp and Gore

One word descriptions of the vice presidential candidates indicate that the public sees both men, incumbent Al Gore and challenger Jack Kemp, in mostly positive terms. Gore was most often called “intelligent;” Kemp’s list led with “football.” In second place for both men was “good.” In comparison, the public in August offered a mix of positive and negative words for Clinton, led by “good” and “wishy-washy.” Dole was most often described in terms of his age, “old,” then “good.”

An overwhelming majority of Americans (73%) think the presidential campaign is dull so far. Almost as many (71%) believe that President Clinton will defeat expected Republican challenger Bob Dole next November. The former Senate majority leader is widely criticized for the job he is doing as he attempts to convince people to vote for him. On average the public grades his campaign D+. The President is given only a slightly better grade of C.

The lackluster contest may take its toll on turnout in November. This is in contrast to the results of surveys taken last fall and earlier this year which suggested possibly higher levels of participation based on increased voter interest at those times. Not so in the current poll. Compared to four years ago, fewer voters have given a lot of thought to the election, fewer say they are interested and fewer say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Only 47% of voters say they have given the election a lot of thought, compared to 55% who said that in June of 1992. In addition, 55% in 1992 said they were more interested in the campaign than they were four years previously, versus 42% who said that this year. Perhaps as a consequence, the proportion of respondents who said they were absolutely certain to vote in the election fell from 75% in June 1992 to 69% currently.

Just about the only bad news in the poll for the Clinton camp is that voting turnout intentions are off more among Democrats than among Republicans. While enthusiasm for the election campaign is down “across the board,” it is sharply lower among Democrats and Independents who lean to the Democratic party.

Although there is a strong consensus that the election is uninteresting, there is no public agreement as to why. Of the 73% who say the campaign so far is dull, 25% blame the nature of the campaign, 20% the quality of the candidates and 16% fault media coverage. Dole supporters blame the media somewhat more often than others, and the news media is getting lower performance grades than earlier in the campaign when the public was more interested in campaign developments.

Reflecting their more habitual interest in politics, the largely Republican voters supporting Dole are as interested in the campaign as Bush voters were in 1992. But Clinton and Perot supporters are much less interested than they were four years ago.

Clinton’s Stable Lead

Although 71% of Americans think Bill Clinton will defeat Dole, he leads his challenger by a more modest 53% to 42% margin among registered voters. The current Clinton lead is quite comparable to results obtained in the five previous nationwide surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center since January. When respondents were offered a choice that includes possible Reform party candidate Ross Perot, Clinton again led Dole by 10% points — 44% chose Clinton, 34% Dole and 16% Perot.

But, party voting intentions for the House of Representatives have narrowed. In the current survey, 47% of registered voters said that if the election were being held today, they would be inclined to vote for a Democratic candidate and 46% would be disposed toward a Republican. In June and March, the Democrats led on this measure by 50% to 44% and 49% to 44%, respectively. This month’s survey finds 92% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans saying they would vote for their party’s candidate for the House. However, only 83% of Republicans say they would back Bob Dole against Bill Clinton, who gets 93% of the Democratic vote.

Americans from different parts of the country have judged Bill Clinton and the GOP leadership quite differently over the course of the past 9 months, a time when the President’s star has risen and the Republicans have faltered. During this period, the Center interviewed nearly 11,000 people and found about half (49%) expressing approval of Bill Clinton and little more than a third (36%) approving of the GOP congressional leadership. When these responses are broken down to the state and subregion level, the following political landscape emerges.

Dole Territory
Reactions to the President and the Republican leaders have not matched the national pattern in much of the South, the Mountain states and in some parts of the Midwest. Clinton approval ratings have been below 50% and the GOP Congressional leadership has received relatively better ratings here. Such states and regions account for 191 electoral votes. In Texas, Virginia, and North Carolina, for example, the President’s approval ratings have been in the low 40′s.

Disposed to Clinton
Many more electoral votes (262) can be found in Northeastern, industrial Midwestern, and Pacific states where Clinton’s ratings have been above 50% and GOP ratings have been about 36% or less over the past 9 months. But a number of these states (accounting for 140 electoral votes) do not have strong Democratic voting histories, and/or have popular Republican Governors. Most notably, Clinton’s ratings have averaged just above the 50% mark in the major industrial states such as Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan and in the key Sun Belt states, California and Florida. In New Jersey and in the small New England states, Clinton’s ratings are not particularly strong, but that is offset by the GOP leadership’s abysmal ratings.

Solid Clinton
In contrast, in the many fewer traditional Democratic states, New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts, for example, the President’s approval ratings approach 60%, while only half as many approve of the Republican leadership.

Swing States
Another category of states and subregions rate the President and the GOP leadership close to the national average. These areas account for 78 electoral votes and include important swing states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia.

These data suggest that a modest improvement in Bob Dole’s national standings could make this a much tighter race in the electoral college. Even though the May round of national surveys found Clinton’s support levels in the mid-50′s while Dole barely managed to reach the 40% mark, there are at least two important reasons to think that the race may tighten.

First, because leads in presidential races usually narrow. Consistent leads have only been apparent in races that have pitted popular incumbents against less popular challengers (’56, ’64, ’72 and ’84). The Clinton/Dole race does not fit that pattern. Despite his current advantage, Clinton continues to get an unfavorable rating from as much as 40% of the public. The slightly less popular Bob Dole is rated unfavorably by 44%.

Secondly, Dole will almost certainly get more support than he is now getting from Republicans and Independents who lean Republican. Just 79% of Republicans say they will vote for him — well below their usual 90%+ loyalty level and below the 90% of Democrats now supporting Clinton.

Tax Cuts and Deficit Reduction … In What Context?

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll and the CBS/NYT poll come to different conclusions this month about whether the public believes taxes can be cut and the deficit reduced at the same time. By a 55% to 39% margin the Gallup respondents say yes. The CBS/NYT sample divides 46% yes, 46% no.

Question wordings are comparable, but the context of the interrogations are quite different. This is the first question in the series for CBS/NYT. But Gallup poses the question after first asking respondents if they favor a tax cut, and then asks would they still favor it if it meant no deficit reduction. With this line of questioning some of Gallup’s interviewees may have felt invested in the idea of a tax cut when then asked about the possibility of cutting taxes while balancing the budget.

Context and small wording differences can drive results when the public is asked to give expert opinion about complicated issues. In January CBS/NYT had found a 34% yes, 56% no response to this very same question. But unlike the current poll, the issue was raised after three other questions about the budget deficit.

Chance Error and Horse Race Leads

Using the “spread” to report horse race poll results is a common, but often confusing practice. It leads to an exaggerated sense of voter volatility, and it makes the margin of chance error even more mysterious to the statistically challenged. As a case in point, a late April Pew Research Center survey found Clinton leading Dole by 14% points, while a similarly timed CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found the President leading by 21% points. This sounds like a big difference, one that’s statistically significant, and an indication that voter attitudes are fluctuating widely. None of these things is true.

Pew had Clinton over Dole 54% to 40% among 1,277 registered voters, while CNN/USA Today/Gallup reported a margin of 58% to 37% among 827 registered voters. There is not a statistically significant difference in levels of candidate support between these two polls, given the sample sizes. While each poll has a margin of chance error of +/- 3 or 4 percentage points for its results, a difference of at least 5% points is required in comparing these poll results. (Each survey has an independent margin of chance error that has to be taken into account in a comparison of poll findings.)

And the “spread” has a chance error of almost double that for both within survey and between survey comparisons, because it is not based on a single percentage but on a margin of difference between percentages.

Four out of the six nationwide surveys conducted in early to mid-April show that Clinton’s lead over Dole is greater than it was a few months ago. Clinton s support varies within a narrow 57% to 53% range, while Dole’s support levels come in at a comparably narrow 43% to 37% range. Consistent poll findings usually are indicative of consensus. Strongly held opinions are less affected by the small methodological differences between polling organizations.

In April of 1992 Bush had a consistent lead in the polls, but it was only 7-8% points. Four years earlier, Dukakis led Bush in some polls, while other surveys in April 1988 had it even. In 1980 Carter’s lead over Reagan in April was far smaller than it had been in January. In 1984, Reagan’s margin over Mondale in the Gallup, CBS/NYT and USA Today polls had grown to a comfortable size by late April.
Bill Clinton’s Asymmetrical Lead

Clinton has a lopsided lead among two groups. He holds a big margin over Bob Dole among nonwhites and among white women living outside of the South. Dole has a lead, or the race is quite close, among all other gender/regional groups.

With only 83% of Republicans now supporting Bob Dole, it is reasonable to expect party members to get behind their standard bearer over the course of the campaign. Many will be drawn from the ranks of white women in the South and white men outside of the South. Republicans outnumber Democrats among both groups.

Whose Values?

The importance of “values” is one of the litanies of this campaign. But it is very hard to pin down just what voters mean by “values” and who is helped and who is hurt by this issue. A case in point is found in differing poll results. When the Pew Research Center asked its sample which candidate is better described by the phrase “shares my values,” a 47% to 37% plurality picked Clinton over Dole. However, when the CBS/NYT poll asked whether each candidate “shares the moral values most Americans try to live by,” a larger percentage thought the phrase applied to Dole (70%) than Clinton (59%).

Lowered Expectations

A 56% majority of voters think that Clinton’s decisions have been influenced by special interest groups, and nearly as many think that about Dole (49%), according to a recent CBS/NYT poll. So it is not surprising that an LAT poll finds that few voters think that fundamental change in the way government is run will occur if Dole (44%) or Clinton is elected (43%).

Criticism of the GOP legislative agenda and the President’s improved standing in the polls now threaten prospects for continued Republican control of the House. Generic support for GOP Congressional candidates has significantly eroded over the past six months. While things are looking up for the Democrats, there may be worrisome parallels to 1992 in Bill Clinton’s current (53% to 41%) lead over Bob Dole. It is almost identical in size and character to George Bush’s lead over Clinton four years ago at this time. Now, as then, members of the challenger’s party have yet to rally around their candidate, and the challenger’s personal strengths are not apparent in voter preferences.

A nationwide Pew Research Center poll of 1116 voters conducted this past weekend found 49% inclined to vote for Democratic Congressional candidates, 44% for Republican candidates and 7% undecided. While this lead is of marginal statistical significance, support for Republican candidates has declined in three successive nationwide surveys. Growing support for Democratic candidates among women, older voters and middle to lower income groups accounts for much of the change observed in Congressional voting intentions.

These same groups have contributed substantially to Clinton’s personal comeback. And the fortunes of Congressional Democrats are very much tied to Bill Clinton’s standing in the Presidential race. Fully 80% of those who support Clinton against Dole say they would vote for a Democratic House candidate, if the election were being held today. A slightly larger percentage of Dole supporters (83%) say they would vote Republican.

The President is on an upswing with the public. His approval ratings are at a three year high in our survey series. There are even some signs that people are less critical of the “way things are going in the country.” The percentage satisfied with conditions rose to 28% in the current survey, from the 23% level where it has been for most of Clinton’s term.

While Clinton is doing better, there is little indication that voters have given Dole as good a look as they will in the coming months. Republicans, uncharacteristically, are less supportive of their party’s candidate (83%) than are Democrats (91%). The poll results also indicate that most of the challenger’s current support is anti-Clinton, rather than pro-Dole. This was exactly the profile of Clinton’s support four years ago at this time, when he trailed Bush by about the same margin as Dole now trails him. But four years ago, challenger Clinton was a largely unknown Governor, not the Senate Majority leader.

Reflecting the public’s lack of focus on Dole, it does not find him more attractive than the President in his supposedly strong areas, or even on any of Clinton’s personal weak points. By a modest margin the Pew sample picked Dole over Clinton for being “honest and truthful” and “keeping his promises.” But respondents were evenly divided as to which candidate is best described by the phrase “can get things done,” and more of them selected Clinton for “sharing my values.” In contrast, Clinton was chosen over Dole by a wide margin for “caring about people like me,” “having new ideas” and being “personally likable.” Even 44% of Dole’s supporters picked Clinton as more likeable than Dole.

But if Dole has yet to capitalize on his strengths, he is not being hurt by his presumed chief weakness, his age. Only 26% of voters say that they are concerned that the veteran Kansas Senator may be too old to serve as President. Interestingly, voters from Dole’s generation are much more dubious on this score. Fully 41% of those 65 years and older are concerned about Dole’s age. People worried about Dole’s age most often question his stamina (42%) and his understanding of the younger generations (41%). Few worry that the Republican candidate has old fashioned ideas. Seniors who worry about Dole’s age were more concerned about the physical demands of the job than about his being out of touch with younger people.

The “None of the Above” Voter

The Pew Center survey found substantial early support for possible third party candidate Ross Perot and even more of a voter base for an “unnamed independent candidate” when matched against Clinton and Dole. At this stage, Perot seems to take away as many votes from Clinton as from Dole. However, a stronger independent candidate would hurt Dole more than Clinton, the survey indicates. Perot polls 16%, compared to 44% for Clinton and 35% for Dole in a three-way race. An unnamed independent attracts the support of 20%, with Dole slipping to 30% and Clinton maintaining the support of 45% of respondents.

Perot’s current backers are quite different in character from his 1992 supporters. In fact, only 54% of those who voted for him four years ago would back him if he were on the ballot now. The new Perot voters are less affluent and have less of a Republican pedigree than those who cast a ballot for him in ’92. As a group they are more critical of both Clinton and the GOP leadership than the public at large. The new Perot voters are more dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country. They are especially critical of the political system, displeased with economic conditions, and anxious about the future.

Governance Not Politics

More Americans want President Clinton to take the lead in solving national problems today than was the case in late 1994, just after the GOP’s midterm win. But by and large the public wants a bipartisan approach. Few Democrats (36%) want the President to challenge the GOP leadership more, and similarly few Republicans want Dole to take a tougher stand with the White House. Accordingly the public is prepared to credit the President and the Congress about equally if progress is made on important issues. It is also disposed to blame both about equally if no progress is made.

Call in the Government?

At least six-in-ten voters give high priority to Washington agenda items such as balancing the budget (72%), welfare reform (70%), assuring the portability of health insurance (66%) and tax reform (59%). Fewer (46%) rate immigration law reform as a high priority and much fewer (23%) feel that way about limiting awards in lawsuits that involve defective products. Republicans give higher priority to balancing the budget and immigration, while Democrats are more interested in health insurance reform.

Although the public gives high priority to largely Republican agenda items, it favors a classic Democratic approach to dealing with peoples’ financial anxieties. By a margin of 54% to 43%, Pew’s respondents favored an approach that included such things as a minimum wage hike, government job training programs and incentives for corporations to treat their employees better, rather than an approach that cuts taxes, reduces regulations and cuts government. Even one-third of Republicans preferred the more “progressive” approach.