Sep. 19, 2012

Section 1: The Obama-Romney Matchup

The current preferences among voter groups are strikingly similar to those seen on Election Day four years ago. Barack Obama generally leads Mitt Romney among the same groups that favored him in 2008, and he trails among the groups that supported Republican John McCain. Obama’s greatest support is found among African American registered voters, who […]

Jun. 21, 2012

Section 2: Assessing Obama and Romney’s Support

  All indications suggest that the 2012 vote will be a very close one. Barack Obama has never trailed Romney in head-to-head matchups with Romney over the past nine months. Obama currently holds a four-point advantage (50% to 46%) among all registered voters, which is not statistically significant. And if the higher engagement and interest […]

Apr. 17, 2012

Section 1: General Election Preferences

As the general election campaign gets underway, Obama’s slim 49% to 45% edge over Mitt Romney is based on his continued support among women, college graduates, blacks, Latinos and lower-income voters. Obama leads Romney by 13 points among women, which is identical to his victory margin over McCain among women four years ago, according to […]

Apr. 17, 2012

With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows

With voters continuing to focus on economic issues, Barack Obama holds a slim 49% to 45% advantage over Mitt Romney in the latest Pew Research Center survey of nearly 2,400 registered voters nationwide. Obama’s lead has narrowed since last month, when he had a 12-point advantage, though it is comparable to margins from earlier […]

Oct. 28, 2008

McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they […]

Oct. 23, 2008

Section 4: First-Time Voters, Early Voters and Engagement

One-in-ten voters say that 2008 is the first year in which they will have voted. This includes 3% who say they voted for the first time this primary season, and another 7% who say the general election will be their first vote. This election cycle is the first time voting for nearly four-in-ten (38%) voters […]

Oct. 21, 2008

Section 1: The Obama-McCain Matchup

Barack Obama leads John McCain not only in overall support but also in the intensity of his support. A sizable plurality of 45% says they are voting for Obama and that there is no chance they will vote for McCain. McCain’s “certain” support is much smaller: just 32% are certain to vote for him. Similarly, […]

Oct. 21, 2008

Section 3: Issues and Priorities

Obama Improves on Key Issues Barack Obama has improved his standing at least slightly since mid-September over John McCain on virtually every domestic and foreign policy issue. When voters were asked which candidate would do the best job handling various concerns, Obama boosted his advantage on domestic issues and cut into McCain’s lead elsewhere. For […]

Oct. 15, 2008

Section 4: The Candidates and the Crisis

With two well-received debate performances behind him and the public focused on the economy, Barack Obama holds a solid 10-point lead (50% to 40%) over John McCain, one of his largest advantages in Pew polls this year. Among those most likely to vote on Nov. 4, Obama’s lead is seven points (49% to 42%). Just […]

Sep. 24, 2008

Section 2: Views of Iraq and Afghanistan

Over the past three months, public perceptions of the war in Iraq have improved dramatically. In the current survey, nearly six-in-ten (58%) say the war is going very (19%) or fairly (39%) well, while fewer than four-in-ten (37%) say things in Iraq are not going well. In June, just 44% said they thought the war […]

Sep. 18, 2008

Section 1: The Obama-McCain Matchup

In spite of the huge television audiences for both political conventions and the strongly positive initial public reaction to the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice presidential nominee, the electorate in September divides along most of the same demographic lines as it did prior to the conventions – and very much along the […]

Aug. 13, 2008

Presidential Race Draws Even

With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew’s latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a […]

Jul. 10, 2008

Likely Rise in Voter Turnout Bodes Well for Democrats

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall – perhaps much higher than in previous elections – as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start […]

Jul. 10, 2008

Section 3: The Obama-McCain Matchup

In the national matchup among registered voters, Obama leads McCain by eight points, 48% to 40%, which is slightly larger than Obama’s lead in late May (47% to 44%). Obama is doing about as well among most demographic groups as Kerry and Gore were doing at this stage four and eight years ago, respectively. The […]

Oct. 26, 2006

Democrats Hold Double-Digit Lead in Competitive Districts

Summary of Findings With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, the Democrats not only continue to maintain a double-digit advantage nationally, but also lead by the same margin in the competitive districts that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives. Nationally, the Democrats hold a 49%-38% lead among registered […]

Oct. 27, 2004

Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured

Summary of Findings With less than a week to go before the election, many swing voters have yet to commit to a candidate, but over the past month there has been some movement among this group toward Sen. John Kerry. A Pew Research Center follow-up survey with 519 swing voters ­ who in September were […]

Oct. 24, 2004

Voters Impressed with Campaign

Summary of Findings Voters express increasingly positive opinions of the 2004 presidential campaign. Virtually all voters ­ 96% ­ believe the campaign is important, while a growing number also view the campaign as interesting. Fully two-thirds of voters (66%) describe the campaign as interesting, up from 50% in early September and just 35% in June. […]

Oct. 21, 2004

Polls Apart

by Andrew Kohut in the New York Times

Oct. 4, 2004

Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images

Summary of Findings By two-to-one, voters who watched the first presidential debate believe that John Kerry prevailed. But the widely viewed Sept. 30 showdown did not result in a sea change in opinions of the candidates. As a consequence, George W. Bush continues to have a much stronger personal image than his Democratic challenger, while […]

Sep. 16, 2004

Section 1: Candidate Support

John Kerry’s gains in recent days have helped to bring him back into contention for the support of key voting blocs and to restore his lead among groups that had favored him when the race was deadlocked throughout the summer. But President Bush continues to enjoy a strong advantage among his base supporters. Significantly, the […]