Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid
The sizeable lead Barack Obama held over a generic Republican opponent in polls conducted earlier this year has vanished as his support among independent voters has fallen off.Currently, 41% of registered voters say they would like to see Barack Obama reelected, while 40% say they would prefer to see a Republican candidate win in […]
When Private Lives Become Public
For more on how a candidate’s marital and family life affects voters’ views, click here. Generally, the issues matter most in voters’ judgments about presidential candidates, but personality, character and values are not far behind. This is especially the case in the primaries where differences between candidates of the same party tend to be modest. […]
The Bounce Effect
How Reliable Are the Early Presidential Polls?
The flurry of candidate announcements in an open race has spurred media attention to the 2008 presidential contest even earlier in the electoral cycle than usual. But followers of early poll readings on the relative viability of declared candidates should bear in mind some caveats. Early frontrunners for the Republican nomination in most of the […]
Can You Trust What Polls Say about Obama’s Electoral Prospects?
The strong showing of Democrat Barack Obama in early trial heat polls for the 2008 presidential election raises anew the question of whether the American public is ready to support an African American candidate for president. Recent polling points to two significant shifts on this question. Read the full analysis at PewResearch.org
Is Gore Like Bush…or is Bush Like Kennedy?
Political analysts looking for historical parallels can’t decide whether the 2000 presidential race looks more like a rerun of 1988 or 1960. Will Vice President Al Gore take a page from Vice President George Bush’s play book, when he overcame a big deficit in the early polls and soundly defeated Michael Dukakis? At a comparable […]
Generic Congressional Measures Less Accurate In Presidential Years
The polling lesson of 1994 was learned first by the Gallup Poll in the 1950’s… that a generic measure of partisan support for House races in a nationwide poll can do a good job of estimating the popular vote for the Congressional election. Consequently, it is an excellent basis for predicting the number of seats […]
Ignore The Horse Race, Pay Attention To The Trend
Also: Poll Apart On Powell; John Paul Who?