Oct. 26, 2006

Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different

Oct. 26, 2006

Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different: Fewer Registered, More First-time Voters

Oct. 26, 2006

Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?

May. 15, 2006

The Cell Phone Challenge to Survey Research

Summary of Findings A growing number of Americans rely solely on a cell phone for their telephone service, and many more are considering giving up their landline phones. This trend presents a challenge to public opinion polling, which typically relies on a random sample of the population of landline subscribers. A new study of the […]

Nov. 23, 2004

Pre-Election Polls Largely Accurate

Lessons From Campaign ’04

Apr. 20, 2004

Additional Findings and Analyses

Samples Mirror Public Profile The profile of people interviewed in the standard survey conducted by Pew mirrors most demographic characteristics of the American public. Despite the growing difficulties in obtaining a high rate of response, well-designed telephone polls reach a representative cross-section of the public in terms of race, age, marital status, and even key […]

Apr. 20, 2004

Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative

Summary of Findings Faced with a growing number of unsolicited telephone calls and armed with increasingly sophisticated technology for screening their calls, more Americans are refusing to participate in telephone polls than was the case just six years ago. Yet a survey research experiment to gauge the effects of respondent cooperation on survey quality indicates […]

Apr. 20, 2004

Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey

Public Opinion Quarterly 70: 759-779 (2006) – This article provides more extensive analysis of data from the study reported in Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative.

Oct. 1, 2002

Why The Generic Ballot Test?

Throughout the election season, the Pew Research Center and other major polling organizations report a measure that political insiders sometimes call “the generic ballot.” This measure is the percentage of voters in national surveys who say they intend to vote for either the Republican or the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in […]

Sep. 29, 2002

Simply Put, The Public’s View Can’t Be Put Simply

by Andrew Kohut in The Washington Post

May. 18, 2001

Screening Likely Voters: A Survey Experiment

Introduction and Summary Traditionally, pollsters trying to accurately assess voter intentions have struggled with a basic problem — figuring out who actually is going to show up to vote. In the 2000 election campaign, sharp fluctuations in the Gallup Organization’s daily tracking poll were blamed by some on difficulties in nailing down likely voters. Similar […]

Mar. 4, 1999

Does an early lead in the polls usually hold up?

A stream of candidate announcements and polls showing Texas Governor George W. Bush leading Vice President Al Gore have spurred interest in the 2000 presidential contest. But with the nominating conventions still more than 16 months away, what do these early polls mean for would-be nominees? A look back at nearly 40 years of early […]

Jan. 27, 1999

Consequences of Reducing Nonresponses in a National Telephone Survey

Jan. 27, 1999

Online Polling Offer Mixed Results

The potential for conducting public opinion surveys online is a hot topic today. With the Internet’s tremendous growth, an online poll can now compile literally tens of thousands of opinions quickly and at a fraction of the cost of traditional telephone surveys. Already many commercial websites invite people to voice their views on a range […]

May. 16, 1998

Possible Consequences of Non-Response for Pre-Election Surveys

Survey Findings Pre-election polling is tricky work. A number of unknown factors can stand in the way of accurate predictions — problems with identifying registered and likely voters, uncertainties about voter turnout, and last-minute shifts in candidate preference. But estimating voter preferences in biracial elections has been especially difficult. Pre-election surveys, even those taken just […]

Sep. 18, 1996

Generic Congressional Measures Less Accurate In Presidential Years

The polling lesson of 1994 was learned first by the Gallup Poll in the 1950′s… that a generic measure of partisan support for House races in a nationwide poll can do a good job of estimating the popular vote for the Congressional election. Consequently, it is an excellent basis for predicting the number of seats […]

Mar. 14, 1996

Polls Trounce Pundits In Forecasting Primaries

Also: Wither The Perot Voter; Polling On The Buchanan Message; And You Think The Republican Party is Divided

Jan. 11, 1996

Chance Error and Bill Clinton’s Political Fortunes

The big difference this week between the CNN/USA/Gallup poll and ABC/WP poll is the first major polling disparity of the ’96 campaign. Gallup’s results indicate that support for the President has tumbled sharply, while the GOP leadership is viewed more favorably than a month ago. In sharp contrast, the ABC/WP poll found no trend away […]

Oct. 30, 1995

Ignore The Horse Race, Pay Attention To The Trend

Also: Poll Apart On Powell; John Paul Who?