Sep. 25, 2003

Additional Findings and Analyses

Bush’s Base Solid After falling steadily after Saddam Hussein’s regime was overthrown in Iraq, Bush’s ratings stabilized in August and have remained in the low-to-mid 50% range since then. The president continues to draw approval from his political base ­ white southerners, people who live in rural areas, white evangelicals, and especially conservative Republicans. Over […]

Aug. 7, 2003

Bush Approval Slips – Fix Economy, Say Voters

Introduction and Summary As President Bush shows increasing political vulnerability, the Democratic presidential field is beginning to come into focus. Bush’s overall approval rating has declined to pre-Iraq war levels and his lead in a match-up with a hypothetical Democrat has narrowed to five points (43%-38%). Nearly six-in-ten Americans (57%) now say the economy – […]

Oct. 10, 2002

Other Important Findings and Analyses

Congressional Race Remains Tight As has been the case for the past year, neither political party has a clear advantage in the upcoming battle for control of the House. Voters are evenly divided, with 44% favoring the Republican candidate in their district, and 46% favoring the Democrat. And when the population is limited to likely […]

Jan. 29, 2002

Bush’s Support Solid as Agenda Begins to Shift

President Bush will have the attention and the good will of the American public to an extraordinary extent when he steps to the podium to deliver his State of the Union address. Tuesday’s speech will be the most eagerly anticipated in years – our mid-January survey found 54% calling it more important than past efforts, […]

Nov. 5, 2000

Slight Bush Margin Holding with Days To Go

Introduction and Summary George W. Bush continues to hold a slim edge over Al Gore in the final days of Campaign 2000. A Pew Research Center poll of 1,307 likely voters conducted November 1-4 finds 46% favoring Bush, 43% Gore, with 3% for Ralph Nader and 1% for Pat Buchanan. These results are almost identical […]

Nov. 1, 2000

Bush Gains on Personal Qualities

Introduction and Summary With less than a week to go before the presidential election, George W. Bush’s advantage with the voters on personal qualities is now trumping Al Gore’s edge on the issues. A steadily growing plurality has come to see the GOP candidate as more likable, more honest, more able to get things done, […]

Oct. 10, 2000

Presidential Debate Clouds Voters’ Choice

Introduction and Summary Al Gore’s personality may be costing him votes. Although a plurality of voters believe he won the first presidential debate, he has lost his small September lead over George W. Bush. As the race has narrowed, an increasing number of voters who oppose the vice president say they dislike his personality. On […]

Jul. 27, 2000

Other Important Findings and Analyses

Might-Miss TV? Just one-in-ten Americans (13%) plan to watch all or most of the television coverage of the GOP convention, while another 28% say they’ll watch some of it. Older Americans are both more interested in the convention and more apt to watch the television coverage. But even among Republicans, there is scant interest in […]

Jul. 13, 2000

I. The Campaign: A Wide-Open Race

The Public’s Mood Mellows Satisfaction with the state of the nation is down slightly over the past 12 months, though still high relative to the early 1990s. In the current survey, 47% of citizens say they are satisfied with the way things are going in the country, down from recent highs of 56% in August […]

May. 11, 2000

Other Important Findings and Analyses

Bush Bounces Back In the presidential race, key voting groups continue to shift back and forth between Bush and Gore, as the public is clearly having difficulty making up its mind about this contest. Some of the gains Gore made in the immediate aftermath of the primary season have since been reversed. Senior citizens rallied […]

Mar. 23, 2000

Bush Pays Price for Primary Victory

Introduction and Summary The presidential primary season may prove to be a decisive factor in Campaign 2000, not only for who won, but for the way the winners emerged from the process in the eyes of the voters. Al Gore was clearly helped, and George W. Bush was just as clearly hurt. The vice president […]

Feb. 17, 2000

McCain Appeals To Pivotal Older Voters and Independents

Introduction and Summary The outcome of the New Hampshire primary has changed candidate support patterns that last year seemed all but cast in stone. Al Gore has drawn into a statistical dead-heat with George W. Bush in a general-election ballot test, largely because core Democrats are rallying behind the vice president. At the same time, […]

Dec. 16, 1999

Campaign Incidents Have Little Punch

Introduction and Summary The rhetoric and events of the presidential campaign so far are having little impact on the attitudes of voters nationwide. Voter preferences are being shaped more by general impressions of the candidates than by what they are saying or by what is happening to them along the campaign trail. While many Americans […]

Dec. 16, 1999

Other Important Findings and Analyses

The Public Remains Disconnected In spite of the accelerated pace of the 2000 presidential campaign, only 16% of the public is following news about candidates very closely. Interest in the campaign has not meaningfully increased since July, despite competitive contests for both parties’ nominations. Even fewer Americans closely followed the recent GOP candidate debates. Less […]

Dec. 10, 1999

Independents Drive New Hampshire Poll Shifts

Also: The Civilian-Military Gap Flap

Nov. 11, 1999

Section 4: The 2000 Elections

The campaign for the 2000 elections presents both parties with substantial political challenges. In the presidential race, the two Democratic candidates continue to lag behind GOP frontrunner George W. Bush. Vice President Al Gore, in particular, is struggling with an image problem — while most Americans see him as trustworthy, likable and caring, only one-third […]

Nov. 11, 1999

Retro-Politics

Foreword and Overview Foreword In 1987, we embarked on an ambitious project to better understand the nature of American politics. We identified a broad range of beliefs and values that underlie common political labels and that ultimately drive political action. A voter typology emerged from this effort which classifies the electorate into distinct groupings, defined […]

Oct. 18, 1999

Candidate Qualities May Trump Issues in 2000

Introduction and Summary Even though Americans say that issues matter most, candidates’ personal qualities may be decisive in a campaign without dominant issues. Voters make fine distinctions, however, about what they want to know about candidates personally. Americans strongly reject press inquiry into most avenues of candidates’ private lives, yet at the same time place […]

Sep. 15, 1999

Too Much Money, Too Much Media Say Voters

Introduction and Summary Americans are showing signs of disaffection with a presidential campaign that is just beginning. The public thinks the press and large campaign contributors are having too much influence on who gets nominated, and a 60% majority thinks voters themselves have too little say. The latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted on the […]

Jul. 22, 1999

Other Important Findings and Analyses

The Voters’ Agenda The public appears ready to extend the congressional debate concerning the regulation of health maintenance organizations (HMOs) to the presidential campaign. When asked to name the one issue they most want to hear the presidential candidates discuss, nearly one-in-five people mention issues related to health care. An additional 14% cite Social Security; […]