Dec. 6, 2004

Religion and the Presidential Vote

Bush’s Gains Broad-Based

Nov. 11, 2004

Voters Liked Campaign 2004, But Too Much ’Mud-Slinging’

Summary of Findings Campaign 2004 receives generally favorable marks from the voters. An overwhelming 86% say they learned enough about the candidates to make an informed choice, while two-thirds express satisfaction with the choice of candidates. However, voters also believe this campaign was more negative than previous contests ­ 72% say there was more mud-slinging […]

Oct. 31, 2004

Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

Summary of Findings President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided. […]

Oct. 26, 2004

Candidates Battle Over First-Time Voters, Mothers

A Closer Look at Key Groups

Oct. 20, 2004

Race Tightens Again, Kerry’s Image Improves

Summary of Findings As the campaign heads into its final stages, the presidential race is again extremely close. The latest Pew Research Center survey of 1,307 registered voters, conducted Oct. 15-19, finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry tied at 45%-45% among registered voters, and 47%-47% among likely voters.(1) These findings represent a […]

Oct. 4, 2004

Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images

Summary of Findings By two-to-one, voters who watched the first presidential debate believe that John Kerry prevailed. But the widely viewed Sept. 30 showdown did not result in a sea change in opinions of the candidates. As a consequence, George W. Bush continues to have a much stronger personal image than his Democratic challenger, while […]

Sep. 30, 2004

Young People More Engaged, More Uncertain

Debates More Important to Young Voters

Sep. 28, 2004

Bush Margin Widens Again, Despite Vulnerabilities

Summary of Findings George W. Bush has reopened a significant lead over challenger John Kerry over the past week, even as voters express less confidence in the president on Iraq and he continues to trail Kerry on the economy. Two successive nationwide surveys of nearly 1,000 registered voters each show Bush’s margin over Kerry growing […]

Sep. 16, 2004

Section 1: Candidate Support

John Kerry’s gains in recent days have helped to bring him back into contention for the support of key voting blocs and to restore his lead among groups that had favored him when the race was deadlocked throughout the summer. But President Bush continues to enjoy a strong advantage among his base supporters. Significantly, the […]

Sep. 16, 2004

Kerry Support Rebounds, Race Again Even

Introduction and Summary Voter opinion in the presidential race has seesawed dramatically in the first two weeks of September. Following a successful nominating convention, George W. Bush broke open a deadlocked contest and jumped out to a big lead over John Kerry. However, polling this past week finds that Bush’s edge over his Democratic rival […]

Aug. 12, 2004

Public Faults Bush on Economy – 55% Say Jobs are Scarce

Summary of Findings With three months to go until the presidential election, the American public remains largely dissatisfied with economic conditions and with President Bush’s stewardship of the economy. Two-thirds rate the national economy as “only fair” or “poor,” while just one-third judge it to be “excellent” or “good.” Accordingly, Bush gets low ratings for […]

Jul. 23, 2004

Bush Holds Modest Advantage Among Veterans

Despite Sen. John Kerry’s military background and his campaign’s concerted efforts to court veterans, he runs no better among this group than Al Gore did four years ago. Based on surveys conducted March, May, June and July, men who have served in the armed forces favor Bush over Kerry by a 49% to 40% margin. […]

May. 12, 2004

Iraq Prison Scandal Hits Home, But Most Reject Troop Pullout

Summary of Findings Public satisfaction with national conditions has fallen to 33%, its lowest level in eight years, in the wake of revelations of prisoner abuse committed by U.S. soldiers at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq. President Bush’s overall job approval rating also has dropped into negative territory: 44% approve of his job performance, while […]

May. 12, 2004

Why the Polls Don’t Add Up

by Andrew Kohut in The New York Times

Mar. 29, 2004

Bush Support Steady in Wake of Clarke Criticisms

Summary of Findings A week’s worth of criticism of his pre-Sept. 11 record on terrorism has had little impact on President Bush’s support among voters. He is now running even with Sen. John Kerry in a head-to-head match-up among registered voters (47% Kerry- 46% Bush) after trailing Kerry by 52%-43% in mid-March. Voter opinions have […]

Jan. 15, 2004

Additional Findings and Analyses

Defense, Economy Top Concerns Economic problems and concerns about foreign affairs, including terrorism and Iraq, are viewed as the top problems facing the country. In an open-ended format, 37% volunteer such defense and security concerns as the most important problem facing the country, with Iraq and terrorism mentioned most often. About as many (35%) cite […]

Dec. 18, 2003

After Hussein’s Capture…

Summary of Findings The public holds more positive opinions of President Bush and the decision to go to war in Iraq in response to the capture of Saddam Hussein. Bush has made significant gains with the public, and more importantly with voters. In historical terms, the president’s job approval gain (from 50% in November to […]

Dec. 8, 2003

Primary Preview: Surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina

Summary of Findings Voter opinion is still fluid in the early Democratic primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and especially South Carolina. As with the candidates themselves, there are significant disagreements among likely primary voters in these pivotal states on such key issues as how to deal with the postwar situation in Iraq, gay marriage […]

Nov. 5, 2003

Part 2: Early Voting Intentions

Despite GOP gains in party identification after Sept. 11, the electorate is evenly split over President Bush’s reelection. A year before the election, the divided electorate looks strikingly similar to the one reflected in exit polls from the 2000 election. Now, as then, Bush draws very strong support from men, whites, and those who regularly […]

Nov. 5, 2003

The 2004 Political Landscape

Over the past four years, the American electorate has been dealt a series of body blows, each capable of altering the political landscape. The voting system broke down in a presidential election. A booming economy faltered, punctuated by revelations of one of the worst business scandals in U.S. history. And the country endured a […]