Dec. 3, 2007

Democratic Primary Preview: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

Summary of Findings Democrats enter the presidential primary campaign upbeat about their candidates and united in their views on major issues. Sen. Hillary Clinton is the clear frontrunner in New Hampshire and South Carolina, where she holds 19-point and 14-point leads, respectively. However in Iowa she is in a statistical tie with Barack Obama. Clinton […]

Nov. 19, 2007

Tracking the Traders

In recent months, the U.S. stock market has seen record highs coupled with dramatic sell-offs, its volatility fueled by the sub-prime mortgage and credit crisis, the weak dollar, and oil prices heading toward $100 per barrel. At the same time, the public has grown increasingly worried about the state of the U.S. economy. Yet these […]

Oct. 31, 2007

A Year Ahead, Republicans Face Tough Political Terrain

Introduction and Summary A year before the 2008 presidential election, most major national opinion trends decidedly favor the Democrats. Discontent with the state of the nation is markedly greater than it was four years ago. President Bush’s approval rating has fallen from 50% to 30% over this period. And the Democrats’ advantage over the Republicans […]

Oct. 31, 2007

Section 1: The Nomination Races

Rudy Giuliani continues to hold a substantial lead in the GOP primary race. Among Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters, 31% currently favor Giuliani, with John McCain (18%) and Fred Thompson (17%) in a virtual tie for second place. Thompson’s support has dropped five points from a month ago, mostly as a result of decreasing enthusiasm […]

Oct. 31, 2007

Section 2: The General Election

While the Democratic Party maintains a substantial advantage over the GOP in party identification, Clinton holds a more modest 51%-43% lead over Giuliani among registered voters in an early general election test. Clinton runs particularly well among those demographic groups that typically vote Democratic by wide margins — minorities, the poor and less educated people. […]

Aug. 2, 2007

A Summer of Discontent with Washington

Summary of Findings As official Washington winds down for its summer holiday, all three branches of government are coming under fire from the American public. Just 29% approve of the way President Bush is handling his job, and only slightly more, 33%, approve of the job performance of the Democratic leaders of Congress. Even the […]

Aug. 2, 2007

Section 4: The 2008 Presidential Campaign

Candidate Consideration Little Changed Despite the intensity of the current campaign, the proportion of registered voters who say they given “a lot” of thought to the candidates has increased only modestly in recent months. Currently, 34% say they have given a lot of thought to the presidential field, up just one-point from June and only […]

Jun. 20, 2007

Bloomberg Well Known, But of Limited Appeal for Now

Michael Bloomberg has created some excitement in the political world about a possible run for the presidency by dropping his Republican affiliation. But a recent nationwide Pew voter survey found that while the New York mayor is relatively well known, his appeal is very modest at this point. Read full analysis at Pewresearch.org

Jun. 4, 2007

Thompson Demonstrates Broad Potential Appeal

Summary of Findings Former Sen. Fred Thompson has broad potential appeal among Republican voters even before his expected entrance into the presidential race. Thompson is not nearly as well known as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or the other leading GOP candidates. But 37% of the Republican and Republican-leaning voters who have heard […]

Apr. 26, 2007

Both Sides Reject Compromise in Iraq Funding Fight

Summary of Findings With battle lines drawn over legislation funding the Iraq war, the public is showing little appetite for compromise. Overall, a solid majority of Americans (59%) continue to say they want their representative to support a bill calling for a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq by August 2008, while just a third want […]

Mar. 29, 2007

Democrats Fail to Impress in First 100 Days

Summary of Findings As the Democratic-led Congress approaches the 100-day mark, pluralities of Americans approve of the way that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are handling their leadership roles. However, the public gives Democrats mixed reviews for delivering on their campaign promises and for their policies and proposals. Slightly more […]

Nov. 5, 2006

Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign’s Final Days

Summary of Findings A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% […]

Sep. 14, 2006

Democrats Hold Solid Lead; Strong Anti-Incumbent, Anti-Bush Mood

Summary of Findings As the congressional midterm campaign begins in earnest, the mood of the electorate is sharply drawn. Voters are disappointed with Congress and disapproving of President Bush. Anti-incumbent sentiment, while a bit lower than a few months ago, is far more extensive than in the previous two midterms and remains close to 1994 […]

Sep. 6, 2005

Political Division Multipliers

President Bush’s margin last year over Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, 2.4 percentage points, was the smallest of any victorious presidential incumbent in history. He won a very close election. But in most of the country, the 2004 race wasn’t even close to being close. A Pew Research Center analysis shows that in the majority […]

May. 10, 2005

Part 5: Politics and the Typology

The political polarization evident in last fall’s presidential election is clearly reflected in the Pew typology. The two most heavily Republican groups ­ Enterprisers and Social Conservatives, who together account for 23% of registered voters ­ supported Bush by margins of 20-1 or more. The strongest Democratic groups ­ Liberals and Disadvantaged Democrats, who together […]

Apr. 6, 2005

The Dean Activists: Their Profile and Prospects

Introduction Although former Vermont governor Howard Dean failed to win the Democratic presidential nomination, his campaign left a strong imprint on the political world. It assembled a network of over a half-million active supporters and contributors, raised over $20 million in mostly small donations online, and demonstrated the power of the internet as a networking […]

Apr. 6, 2005

I. Dean Activists and the Democrats

Given their numbers, their highly visible role in the 2004 campaign, and their generally strong commitment to political activity, the attitudes of Dean activists toward the Democratic Party will help shape the party’s future direction. The Dean activists are highly critical of the Democratic Party in a number of areas. But they are not ready […]

Apr. 6, 2005

II. On the Campaign Trail

Why Dean? The war in Iraq was by far the most important issue that attracted Dean activists to the campaign. Two-thirds (66%) picked the war as one of the two most important issues in their decision to support Dean, far outpacing health care (at 34%). About a quarter (24%) cited fiscal responsibility as the most […]

Apr. 6, 2005

III. The Activists, the Media and the Internet

Heavy News Consumers Among the most distinguishing characteristics of Dean activists is their intense interest in the news. Not only are they far more avid consumers of news than the general public but the sources they consult follow a substantially different pattern. Like many Americans, Dean activists pick the daily newspaper as their single most […]

Apr. 6, 2005

IV. The Dean Activists

Different Kind of Democrat Dean activists are a distinctive group within their own party. As a group, they are much more racially homogenous than the general public or Democrats. More than nine-in-ten Dean activists (92%) are white and just 1% are African American. By comparison, the public is 79% white, as are about two-thirds of […]