May. 29, 2008

McCain’s Negatives Mostly Political, Obama’s More Personal

As the end of the primary season draws near, Barack Obama is the clear favorite of Democratic voters for their party’s presidential nomination. He currently holds a wide 54% to 41% lead over Hillary Clinton. But when the Illinois Democrat is tested against John McCain in a general election matchup, he now runs about […]

May. 29, 2008

Section 1: The General Election

General election matchups find John McCain trailing the Democratic candidates. Obama holds a slight 47%-44% over McCain, which is narrower than his six-point advantage in both April and March. Clinton currently has a 48%-44% lead over McCain, which is largely unchanged from April and March. Looking ahead to the fall election, a critical question is […]

May. 29, 2008

Section 3: The Democratic Primary

On the eve of the final Democratic primaries, Barack Obama has opened a 13-point lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters nationwide. This represents a substantial shift from a month ago, when Clinton had pulled within two points of Obama in the wake of her victory in the Pennsylvania primary. Obama now leads […]

May. 29, 2008

Section 4: Race and Gender in the Democratic Primary

While race and gender have been the focus of a good deal of discussion through the course of the 2008 Democratic primary campaign, most voters believe that neither was a significant factor in the success or failure of the Obama and Clinton candidacies. And among those who believe race and gender were factors, somewhat more […]

May. 1, 2008

Section 2: Primary Contest Tightens

Clinton has whittled away Obama’s advantage in the race for the Democratic nomination in part because of her growing strength among white voters, especially white men. Clinton now leads Obama among white male Democratic voters by 11 points (53% to 42%). In March, she trailed Obama among white Democratic men, 36% to 52%. Clinton also […]

May. 1, 2008

Section 3: The General Election

While the dynamics of the Democratic primary contest continue to fluctuate, voter preferences in general election matchups between either Obama or Clinton and McCain remain stable. Among registered voters nationwide, Barack Obama holds a six-point edge over McCain (50% to 44%) while Clinton leads McCain by a comparable margin (49% to 45%). Neither race has […]

Mar. 27, 2008

Section 4: The General Election

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hold roughly comparable leads in head-to-head matchups with John McCain. Obama edges McCain by a 49% to 43% margin among registered voters nationwide; Clinton holds an almost identical 49% to 44% edge. Obama and Clinton held similar leads over McCain in late February. Yet there are positive signs for […]

Mar. 27, 2008

Section 2: The Democratic Primary

Barack Obama maintains a 49%-39% lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, despite heavy media coverage in the past week of Obama’s controversial former pastor. Obama’s advantage over Clinton is now about the same as it was before his losses in the March 4 primaries in Ohio and Texas (49%-40%). Age, race and […]

Feb. 28, 2008

Section 1: General Election Patterns of Support

Obama and Clinton both hold modest leads over McCain in a general election matchup; Obama has a 50% to 43% lead and Clinton holds a 50% to 45% edge. But Clinton draws more universal support among Democrats (89%) than does Obama (81%). Conversely, Obama leads McCain slightly among independents (49% to 43%), while McCain edges […]

Feb. 28, 2008

Section 3: The Primary Contests

Barack Obama has taken a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton among Democratic voters nationwide. Currently, 49% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters say he would be their first choice for the nomination, while 40% name Clinton as their first choice. This is a reversal of the eight-point lead Clinton held just three weeks ago. Far […]

Feb. 28, 2008

Obama Has The Lead, But Potential Problems Too

Summary of Findings Barack Obama is riding high as the March 4 primaries approach. Obama has moved out to a broad-based advantage over Hillary Clinton in the national Democratic primary contest and holds a 50%-43% lead over John McCain in a general election matchup. However, the survey results point to several potential hazards for Obama. […]

Feb. 11, 2008

Young Voters in 2008 Presidential Primaries

A great deal of attention on Super Tuesday was focused on young voters, especially in the Democratic contests. Pew polling over the past few years has shown that young voters are trending Democratic and constitute an important constituency for the party. Currently, a clear majority of registered voters ages 18-29 say they are Democrats or […]

Feb. 8, 2008

Patterns of Distinction

In terms of the numbers, Super Tuesday was as much a national election as it was the sum of individual contests in 24 states. While significant variations emerged in voting patterns from state to state, similarities outweighed differences. In both political parties, distinct patterns shaped the outcomes from coast to coast, and they provide some […]

Feb. 3, 2008

McCain’s Support Soars, Democratic Race Tightens

Summary of Findings Barack Obama and John McCain have made significant gains in support as the field of candidates has narrowed in both parties. John McCain now leads 42%-22% over Mitt Romney among Republican voters nationally. Support for McCain is up 13 points since mid-January, and he currently draws about twice as much support as […]

Jan. 28, 2008

The South Carolina Democratic Primary in Black and White

The results in Saturday’s Democratic primary in South Carolina offer important evidence — if not yet answers — to three big questions in this campaign: Can Barack Obama solidify all segments of the black vote behind him? Can he be competitive among white voters, especially in the South? And can we trust pre-election polls in […]

Jan. 25, 2008

Raising McCain

Nearly lost in the blizzard of recent poll reports were the findings of a Gallup survey that the current Republican frontrunner, John McCain, might well give each of the two Democratic frontrunners a run for their money. When Gallup asked 1,598 likely voters whom they’d back if the presidential election were held today, respondents chose […]

Jan. 18, 2008

Mind the Gender Gap

A lot of attention has been paid to the women’s vote in the first two Democratic nominating contests. In the Iowa caucuses, Barack Obama won a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton among female voters. But in New Hampshire women rallied to the former first lady giving her a huge 46 percent to 34 percent margin, […]

Jan. 16, 2008

In GOP Primaries: Three Victors, Three Constituencies

Summary of Findings The Republican nomination contest is being increasingly shaped by ideology and religion as it moves toward the Super Tuesday states on Feb. 5. John McCain has moved out to a solid lead nationally, increasing his support among Republican and GOP-leaning voters from 22% in late December to 29% currently. Mike Huckabee, at […]

Jan. 2, 2008

McCain and Huckabee Catch Up to Giuliani Nationwide

Summary of Findings On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Rudy Giuliani’s once solid lead in nationwide polling of Republican voters has vanished. The latest nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds about equal levels of support for John McCain (22%), Rudy Giuliani (20%), and Mike Huckabee (17%). […]

Dec. 4, 2007

GOP Race Unsettled in Politically Diverse Early States

Summary of Findings Republican voter sentiment in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is highly fluid. Compared with Democratic voters, likely Republican voters in these three politically disparate states express less enthusiasm about their field of presidential candidates, and many Republicans voice only modest support for their choices. Mike Huckabee runs even with Mitt Romney […]