Jan. 29, 2004

A Good Day for the Pollsters

The Accuracy of Pre-Election Tracking Polls in New Hampshire

Jan. 29, 2004

A Year of Contention at Home and Abroad

2003 Year-end Report

Jan. 18, 2004

All the Presidents’ Numbers

New York Times

Jan. 15, 2004

Additional Findings and Analyses

Defense, Economy Top Concerns Economic problems and concerns about foreign affairs, including terrorism and Iraq, are viewed as the top problems facing the country. In an open-ended format, 37% volunteer such defense and security concerns as the most important problem facing the country, with Iraq and terrorism mentioned most often. About as many (35%) cite […]

Jan. 15, 2004

Economy and Anti-Terrorism Top Public’s Policy Agenda

Introduction and Summary Americans view Howard Dean as more liberal than the other leading Democratic candidates and far more liberal than the way they see themselves. For his part, President Bush is seen as more conservative than the average person. Bush is somewhat further from the ideological self-perception of the average American than are several […]

Dec. 18, 2003

After Hussein’s Capture…

Summary of Findings The public holds more positive opinions of President Bush and the decision to go to war in Iraq in response to the capture of Saddam Hussein. Bush has made significant gains with the public, and more importantly with voters. In historical terms, the president’s job approval gain (from 50% in November to […]

Dec. 12, 2003

Profile: Battleground States in the 2004 Presidential Election

National Public Radio

Dec. 9, 2003

Poll Focuses on Democratic Primary Voters

National Public Radio

Dec. 8, 2003

Primary Preview: Surveys in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina

Summary of Findings Voter opinion is still fluid in the early Democratic primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and especially South Carolina. As with the candidates themselves, there are significant disagreements among likely primary voters in these pivotal states on such key issues as how to deal with the postwar situation in Iraq, gay marriage […]

Nov. 6, 2003

Divided Nation

NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

Nov. 5, 2003

Part 2: Early Voting Intentions

Despite GOP gains in party identification after Sept. 11, the electorate is evenly split over President Bush’s reelection. A year before the election, the divided electorate looks strikingly similar to the one reflected in exit polls from the 2000 election. Now, as then, Bush draws very strong support from men, whites, and those who regularly […]

Nov. 5, 2003

The 2004 Political Landscape

Over the past four years, the American electorate has been dealt a series of body blows, each capable of altering the political landscape. The voting system broke down in a presidential election. A booming economy faltered, punctuated by revelations of one of the worst business scandals in U.S. history. And the country endured a […]

Nov. 5, 2003

Divided 2004 Electorate

National Public Radio

Sep. 25, 2003

Once Again, Voters Say: It’s the Economy

Introduction and Summary President Bush is facing an electorate that is almost as focused on the economy as it was in the fall of 1991, when rising economic concern began to unravel his father’s reelection chances. In an open-ended format, nearly half (49%) of Americans volunteer the economy or jobs as the single issues they […]

Sep. 25, 2003

Additional Findings and Analyses

Bush’s Base Solid After falling steadily after Saddam Hussein’s regime was overthrown in Iraq, Bush’s ratings stabilized in August and have remained in the low-to-mid 50% range since then. The president continues to draw approval from his political base ­ white southerners, people who live in rural areas, white evangelicals, and especially conservative Republicans. Over […]

Aug. 7, 2003

Bush Approval Slips – Fix Economy, Say Voters

Introduction and Summary As President Bush shows increasing political vulnerability, the Democratic presidential field is beginning to come into focus. Bush’s overall approval rating has declined to pre-Iraq war levels and his lead in a match-up with a hypothetical Democrat has narrowed to five points (43%-38%). Nearly six-in-ten Americans (57%) now say the economy – […]

Jul. 24, 2003

II. Religion, Voting, and the Campaign

Most people (67%) say that their religious beliefs play at least an occasional role in helping them decide what to do in their lives. But far fewer (38%) say religion has the same influence on their voting decisions. Overall, 45% say they frequently find themselves using their religious beliefs to help make choices and decisions […]

Jul. 8, 2003

Americans More Critical of Bush’s Efforts at Home, More Anxious Over Situation in Iraq

Summary of Findings As presidential campaign activities start to pick up steam, President Bush is facing increasing public criticism of his efforts to deal with domestic issues and greater wariness of the military situation in Iraq. At the same time, his potential Democratic rivals show little early appeal and the Democratic party has lost significant […]

Jun. 12, 2003

66% Expect Bush Victory, But Democrats More Optimistic Than In ’91

Summary of Findings Most Americans believe President Bush will win reelection next fall, but Democrats are holding out hope for their party’s chances for success in 2004. Overall, two-thirds of registered voters (66%) think Bush will be reelected, compared with 22% who expect the Democratic candidate to prevail. In the fall of 1991, more than […]

Jan. 16, 2003

Public Wants Proof of Iraqi Weapons Programs

Summary of Findings A two-thirds majority of the public continues to express qualified support for the idea of using military force to end the rule of Saddam Hussein. But the Bush administration may face a major challenge in winning public support for the use of force if U.N. weapons inspections yield anything less than evidence […]