Developments in the Trayvon Martin murder case and news about the candidates for president topped the public’s news interest last week, with about as many saying they followed news about the economy most closely.

Roughly two-in-ten (22%) say their top story was developments in the legal case against George Zimmerman, the community watch volunteer charged with second degree murder in the death of the Florida teenager. About as many (18%) say they followed election news most closely. Another 17% say their top story was news about the condition of the economy, according to the latest weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted April 26-29 among 1,000 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.

Looking at a separate measure, the percentage of Americans that say they very closely followed news about the economy (34%) or the elections (29%) has changed little in recent weeks. On the other hand, the percentage that says they followed news about the Trayvon Martin case very closely has slipped from 35% in mid-April to 27% two weeks ago to 24% in the latest survey.

The Trayvon Martin story also has received less coverage recently. Last week, developments in the case accounted for 3% of the newshole, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). Coverage was greater at the start of the week as Zimmerman was released from jail after posting bail, but fell off as the week unfolded. Two weeks ago, the case accounted for 7% of coverage. One week before that, the week charges were brought against Zimmerman, the Martin shooting accounted for 17% of coverage.

The presidential election topped coverage last week, making up 20% of the newshole, according to PEJ. News about the economy accounted for 8%.

Other stories attracted less public attention. Fewer than one-in-ten (6% each) say their top story was the issue of immigration or developments in the scandal involving Secret Service agents allegedly hiring prostitutes while on assignment in Colombia. Just 2% say their top story was the trial for former Sen. John Edwards on charges of conspiring to illegally send campaign donations to his mistress.

About two-in-ten (21%) say they very closely followed developments in the immigration debate, which last week included a Supreme Court hearing on Arizona’s immigration law, and 17% very closely followed developments in the Secret Service scandal. Just 9% say they very closely followed news about Edwards’ trial.

The immigration debate accounted for 6% of coverage, while developments in the Secret Service scandal accounted for 4%. Edwards’ trial accounted for 4% of the newshole.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center’s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media’s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected April 23-29, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected April 26-29, 2012, from a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults.

Public assessments of the Supreme Court have reached a quarter-century low. Unlike evaluations over much of the past decade, there is very little partisan divide. The court receives relatively low favorable ratings from Republicans, Democrats and independents alike.

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted April 4-15, 2012 among 1,514 adults nationwide, finds 52% offering a favorable opinion of the Supreme Court, down from 58% in 2010 and the previous low of 57%, in 2005 and 2007. About three-in-ten (29%) say they have an unfavorable view, which approaches the high reached in 2005 (30%).

Declining Ratings across Party Lines

There are virtually no partisan differences in views of the Supreme Court: 56% of Republicans, and 52% of both Democrats and independents rate the Supreme Court favorably. And the decline in court ratings has occurred across party lines over the past three years. In April 2009, soon after Barack Obama took office, 70% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, and 64% of independents held a favorable opinion of the court.

Republican ratings fell steeply between 2009 and 2010, with the appointments of Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan to the court. Democratic ratings remained relatively high through 2010, but have fallen steeply since.

The weak ratings for the court across party lines stands in contrast to most previous polls, in which those in the president’s party have viewed the Supreme Court more favorably than those in the opposite party. Most recently, throughout George W. Bush’s administration, Republicans felt much more favorably toward the Supreme Court than did Democrats. In July 2007, 73% of Republicans rated the court favorably, compared with 49% of Democrats. This divide began even before Bush took office, triggered by the Supreme Court’s Bush v. Gore ruling. In early January 2001, 80% of Republicans viewed the court favorably, compared with 62% of Democrats.

The Court and Health Care

The survey was conducted after the Supreme Court’s hearings on the 2010 health care law. It finds that the law’s supporters and opponents express similar views of the court.

Overall, the public remains deeply divided over the health care law: 41% say they approve of it, while 49% disapprove. Among the bill’s supporters, 52% have a favorable view of the Supreme Court, while 34% view it unfavorably. Among the bill’s opponents, the balance is only slightly less negative; 55% favorable, 28% unfavorable.

However, a survey conducted last month found that while most Americans said the health care hearings did not change their views of the court, Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to say their opinions of the court had become less favorable.

The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post, conducted March 29-April 1, 2012 among 1,000 adults, found that 32% of Democrats said their opinion of the court had become less favorable as a result of the hearings on the health care law; just 16% of independents and 14% of Republicans said their views of the court had become less favorable.

Just a third of Americans have a favorable opinion of the federal government, the lowest positive rating in 15 years. Yet opinions about state and local governments remain favorable, on balance. As a result, the gap between favorable ratings of the federal government and state and local governments is wider than ever.

Ten years ago, roughly two-thirds of Americans offered favorable assessments of all three levels of government: federal, state and local. But in the latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, conducted April 4-15, 2012 among 1,514 adults nationwide, the favorable rating for the federal government has fallen to just 33%; nearly twice as many (62%) have an unfavorable view.

By contrast, ratings of state governments remain in positive territory, with 52% offering a favorable and 42% an unfavorable opinion of their state government. And local governments are viewed even more positively. By roughly two-to-one (61% to 31%) most Americans offer a favorable assessment of their local government.

Although favorability ratings for state governments declined between 2008 and 2009 as the financial crisis hit, they have remained steady over the past four years. Consequently, the gap between ratings of state governments and the federal government has grown.

While the balance of opinion toward state governments is favorable, majorities say their state government is not careful with people’s money (56%), is too divided along party lines (53%) and is generally inefficient (51%). But much larger percentages fault the federal government’s performance in those areas. Moreover, while more say their state government is mostly honest rather than mostly corrupt (by 49% to 37%), a majority (54%) says the federal government is mostly corrupt.

Falling Ratings for the Federal Government

The overall decline in favorability toward the federal government in Washington is consistent with other views of government. Recent Pew Research Center studies have shown overall public trust in government at or near all-time lows (See these reports from 2011 and 2010.). And a survey conducted in January 2012 found ratings of Congress have also reached historic lows.

In the current survey, 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of the federal government in Washington, compared with 27% of independents and just 20% of Republicans. This contrasts with partisan views of the federal government when George W. Bush was president. As recently as 2008, Republicans held a more favorable opinion of the federal government in Washington (53%) than did Democrats (29%).

Since Barack Obama’s first year in office, public assessments of the federal government have dropped nine-points, with most of the change among Democrats and independents. In 2009, 61% of Democrats and 35% of independents had favorable opinions of the federal government in Washington, those figures stand at 51% and 27%, respectively, today. Republicans’ views, already low in 2009, have shown less change.

Republicans More Satisfied with State Governments

While Republicans offer an overwhelmingly negative assessment of the federal government in Washington, they take a far more positive view of state governments than do either Democrats or independents.

Among Republicans, more have a favorable than unfavorable view of their state government, by a 62% to 34% margin. Democrats (50% favorable, 45% unfavorable) and independents (49%, 44%) are divided.

The higher ratings among Republicans overall are driven by the strong satisfaction Republicans feel in the 21 states that have Republican leaders at the helm. Fully 70% of Republicans and Republican leaners in these states give their state government a favorable rating. Republicans states are those that have Republican governors and Republican majorities in both state legislative chambers; among the largest are Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas (see appendix at the end of this report for a full list of states).

By contrast, in the 11 states with unified Democratic control (the largest being California, Illinois, Washington and Massachusetts), just 33% of Republicans and Republican leaners offer a favorable rating.

Democrats’ views of their state governments are less correlated with the political makeup of the government. In the 11 states with Democratic governors and Democratic legislative majorities, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners rate their state government favorably; in states with Republican governors and Republican legislative majorities, 43% feel favorably toward their state government.

Views of State Governments

State governments receive more positive ratings than the federal government across a range of performance-related traits. In a separate survey, conducted April 19-22 among 1,004 adults, more people describe their state government as mostly honest (49%) rather than mostly corrupt (37%). Evaluations of the federal government run in the opposite direction: 54% say it is mostly corrupt, while just 31% say it is mostly honest. More say state governments address people’s needs (42%) than say the same about the federal government (30%). State governments are also seen as more efficient (38%) than the federal government (24%).

Partisanship is seen as a bigger problem at the federal level than at the state level. Three-quarters (75%) say the federal government is too divided along party lines, with just 20% saying the federal government can usually work together to get things done. State governments get substantially less negative ratings; 53% say their state government is too divided along party lines, while 36% say it usually works together to get things done.

Just one-in-three (33%) say their state government is careful with people’s money, but that is nearly double the 17% who say the federal government is careful with people’s money.

Appendix: Party of Governors and State Legislatures

Republican governors and Republican majorities in both state House and Senate:
AL, AZ, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, LA, ME, MI, MS, ND, OH, OK, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY

Democratic governors and Democratic majorities in both state House and Senate:
AR, CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, VT, WA, WV

Mixed party control of governorship, state House, state Senate. This includes states with a nonpartisan legislature (NE), states with no majority (ties) in one or more chambers (AK, OR, WI), and states with independent governors (RI). Wisconsin results reflect outcome of recent recall elections.
AK, CO, IA, KY, MN, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, RI, VA, WI

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures, March 19, 2012.

Opinions about a pair of contentious social issues, gun control and gay marriage, have changed substantially since previous presidential campaigns. On gun control, Americans have become more conservative; on gay marriage, they have become more liberal.

Currently, 49% of Americans say it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns, while 45% say it is more important to control gun ownership. Opinion has been divided since early 2009, shortly after Barack Obama’s election. From 1993 through 2008, majorities had said it was more important to control gun ownership than to protect gun rights.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted April 4-15, 2012, also finds that the public is divided over gay marriage:  47% favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally, while 43% are opposed. In 2008, 39% favored and 51% opposed gay marriage, based on an average of polls conducted that year. In 2004, just 31% supported gay marriage, while nearly twice as many (60%) were opposed.

Moreover, for the first time in a Pew Research Center survey there is as much strong support as strong opposition to gay marriage. In the current survey, 22% say they strongly support allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally; an identical percentage (22%) strongly opposes gay marriage. In 2008, there was about twice as much strong opposition to as strong support for gay marriage (30% vs. 14%).

In 2004, when the issue was widely thought to have increased turnout among socially conservative voters in several key states, 36% strongly opposed gay marriage while just 11% strongly favored it. (For more, see Andrew Kohut’s piece in the New York Times on the changing politics of gay marriage, “The Electorate Changes and Politics Follow,” April 16, 2012.)

The new survey also finds continued majority support for legal abortion: 53% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in all (23%) or most cases (31%); 39% say that abortion should be illegal in all (16%) or most cases (23%).

That is little changed from recent years. In 2009, the percentage favoring legal abortion in all or most cases fell below 50% for the first time since 2001. Since then, however, support for legal abortion has rebounded and is generally in line with trends dating to 1995.

As in recent campaigns, voters rate social issues – including gun control, abortion, birth control and gay marriage – as far less important than the economy or jobs. About half of registered voters (47%) say gun control will be very important to their vote for president this fall; even fewer rate abortion (39%), birth control (34%) and gay marriage (28%) as very important. By wide margins, the economy (86% very important) and jobs (84%) are the top voting issues.

Republican voters are more likely than Democrats to view abortion and gay marriage as very important. About half of Republicans (51%) rate abortion as very important to their vote, compared with 40% of Democrats. In addition, 36% of Republicans say that gay marriage is very important; 27% of Democrats agree. However, the percentage of Republicans rating gay marriage as very important has declined by 13 points since 2004. Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to say that birth control will be very important to their votes (47% vs. 31%). (For more, see “With Voters Focused on Economy, Obama Lead Narrows”, April 17, 2012.)

Race, Gender Differences over Gun Rights

In the current survey, 57% of whites say it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns; just 37% say it is more important to control gun ownership. This is little changed from surveys conducted since April 2009. From 1993 through 2008, however, majorities of whites consistently said that controlling gun ownership was more important than protecting gun rights.

African Americans are far less likely than whites to rate the protection of gun rights as more important than gun control. In the current survey, 35% say it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns, while 60% say gun rights are more important.

But the percentage of blacks saying that protecting gun rights is more important has climbed by 13 points, from 22%, since last October. The share of blacks prioritizing gun control has fallen 11 points, from 71% then to 60% today.

There long have been gender differences in opinions about gun control, but both men and women have become more supportive of gun rights. In the current survey, 60% of men say it is more important to protect gun rights, up from 46% in April 2008. Just 39% of women say it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns. But that percentage also is higher than it was four years ago (30%).

Partisan differences in opinions about gun control have widened in recent years. Before 2009, no more than about six-in-ten Republicans prioritized gun rights over gun control. In six surveys since April 2009, between 65% and 72% (in the current survey) of Republicans have said it is more important to protect gun rights.

Independents also have become more supportive of gun rights. Currently, 55% say it is more important to protect the rights of Americans to own guns; 40% say it is more important to control gun ownership. That is little changed from surveys conducted since 2009. In prior surveys, majorities of independents said it was more important to control gun ownership than to protect gun rights.

Democrats’ opinions have shown far less change over time. In the current survey, 67% of Democrats say it is more important to control gun ownership, compared with just 27% who say it is more important to protect gun rights.

Decreasing Opposition to Gay Marriage

In the last two presidential campaigns, there was far more opposition than support for gay marriage. But today, opinions are divided and there is as much strong support as strong opposition to gay marriage (22% each). (For a visual display of changes in attitudes toward gay marriage across various groups since 2001, see “Graphics Slideshow: Changing Attitudes on Gay Marriage,” Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life).

Since 2004, there has been a broad-based decline in opposition – including strong opposition –to gay marriage. In 2004, Americans younger than 30 were divided (48% opposed, 45% favored). Today, young people favor gay marriage by more than two-to-one (65% to 30%). Opposition has declined by the same percentage – 18 points – among those 65 and older; still, a majority (56%) of this group continues to oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. Strong opposition has declined 18 points since 2004 among those 65 and older (from 46% to 28%) and 14 points among those younger than 30 (from 28% to 14%).

In the current survey, majorities of Democrats (59%) and independents (52%) favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. In 2008, Democrats favored gay marriage by 50% to 42%, while independents were divided (44% favored, 45% opposed). In 2004, pluralities of both groups (50% of Democrats, 53% of independents) opposed gay marriage. Republicans continue to oppose gay marriage by a wide margin (68% to 23%), but Republican opposition has declined by 10 points – and strong opposition by 14 points – since 2004.

White evangelical Protestants remain overwhelmingly opposed to gay marriage, and opinion among this group has shown relatively little change since 2004. In the current survey, 78% of white evangelicals oppose gay marriage, with 56% strongly opposed.

Whites, Blacks and Gay Marriage

In 2008, there were sizable differences in opinions about gay marriage among whites and blacks. While whites opposed gay marriage by a modest 51% to 41% margin, blacks opposed gay marriage by more than two-to-one (63% to 26%).

But the gap has narrowed. Since 2008, the proportion of African Americans favoring gay marriage has increased from 26% to 39%, while opposition has fallen from 63% to 49%.

Support for gay marriage also has increased among whites, though far less dramatically (from 41% in 2008 to 47% in the current survey).

Abortion Views Little Changed

In contrast with opinions about gun control and gay marriage, public attitudes regarding abortion have changed relatively little in recent years. In surveys conducted in 2011 and 2012, 53% say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases; 41% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Opinion was more evenly divided in 2009 and 2010 (48% legal in all most cases vs. 44% illegal in all most cases). But opinions since the start of last year are almost identical to those from surveys conducted in 2007 and 2008 (54% legal vs. 40% illegal). This analysis combines surveys in each two-year period (2007-2008, 2009-2010, 2011-2012), which enables analysis of the views of small demographic groups.

Unlike opinions about gay marriage, opinions about abortion differ only modestly across age groups. Narrow majorities of those younger than 30 (53%), 30 to 49 (54%) and 50 to 64 (55%) say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Nearly half of those 65 and older (48%) also support legal abortion.

There are only small differences in opinions about abortion between men and women: 55% of women and 51% of men say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. By contrast, opinions differ substantially by education: 61% of college graduates support legal abortion compared with 46% of those with a high school education or less.

As in the past, there are wide partisan, ideological and religious differences over abortion. Conservative Republicans oppose legal abortion by about two-to-one (65% to 31%). Majorities across other political and ideological groups, including 55% of moderate and liberal Republicans, favor legal abortion.

Among religious groups, majorities of white evangelical Protestants (64%) and Hispanic Catholics (54%) oppose legal abortion. Support for legal abortion is highest among Jews (86%) and the religiously unaffiliated (72%). There continue to be wide differences in views based on religious attendance, regardless of affiliation: Fully 72% of those who say they seldom or never attend religious services support legal abortion; that compares with fewer than half as many of those who attend weekly or more (34%).

With a Florida judge clearing the way for George Zimmerman to get out of jail on bail, developments in the case against the man charged in the killing of Trayvon Martin topped Americans’ news interest last week.

About a quarter of the public (26%) says they followed developments in the case more closely than any other news, according to the latest weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted April 19-22 among 1,004 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The controversy over the shooting of Martin, an unarmed African American teenager, has now been the public’s top story for five straight weeks.

Coverage, though, dropped to 7% of the newshole from 17% the previous week, when Zimmerman was arrested and charged with second degree murder, according to a separate analysis by the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ). The 2012 presidential campaign received the most coverage last week, accounting for 17% of the newshole.

Attentiveness to Washington Scandals

The second-ranking story in terms of coverage was the scandal about Secret Service agents allegedly hiring prostitutes in Cartagena, Colombia, while preparing for a visit by President Obama. That story accounted for 9% of all news coverage.

About one-in-ten (9%) say they followed news about the emerging scandal more closely than any other news, ranking it behind developments in the Trayvon Martin case (26% most closely), the economy (15%) and the presidential campaign (13%) among the week’s top stories.

Even fewer (5%) say they most closely followed news about a scandal involving excessive spending at the General Services Administration (GSA) in Washington. That story also accounted for less coverage, making up 3% of the newshole.

Looking at a separate measure, 23% say they followed news about the Secret Service scandal very closely, more than the 18% that say they followed news about the expensive conference held by the GSA in Las Vegas. The GSA investigation so far has led to the resignation of the agency’s top official and the firing of several others. Four-in-ten (40%) say they did not follow developments in the GSA story at all closely, compared with just 24% who say this about the Secret Service story.

While partisans are about equally likely to say they followed news about the Secret Service investigation very closely, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they followed the GSA story very closely (23% vs. 15%). About two-in-ten independents (18%) say this as well.

News about photographs of American soldiers posing with the corpses of dead Afghan insurgents received somewhat less public attention; 14% say they followed this news very closely, while news about the photographs was the top story for 3%. Overall coverage of the situation in Afghanistan made up 7% of the newshole last week. About half of that (4% of all coverage) focusing on the controversy over the photographs.

About a third of the public (35%) say they followed news about the economy very closely, a level of interest that has fluctuated only slightly for much of the year. And 29% say they very closely followed news about the candidates for president, a level of interest consistent with most weeks this year.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center’s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media’s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected April 16-22, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected April 19-22, 2012, from a nationally representative sample of 1,004 adults.

]]> http://www.people-press.org/2012/04/24/news-about-trayvon-martin-case-still-top-story/feed/ 0 http://www.people-press.org/2012/04/18/most-swing-voters-favor-afghan-troop-withdrawal/?src=rss_main http://www.people-press.org/2012/04/18/most-swing-voters-favor-afghan-troop-withdrawal/#comments Wed, 18 Apr 2012 16:28:01 +0000 Pew Research Center for the People and the Press http://www.people-press.org/?p=20040667 Overview

Public support for maintaining U.S. forces in Afghanistan has reached a new low. And as the general election campaign begins, swing voters, by nearly two-to-one, favor removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan as soon as possible.

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of voters who say they are certain to support Barack Obama in the general election favor a rapid U.S. troop withdrawal. But support for a troop pullout is nearly as extensive (59%) among swing voters — those who are either undecided in their general election preferences, lean toward a candidate or say they may still change their minds. Swing voters make up nearly a quarter (23%) of all registered voters.

Voters who express certainty about voting for Mitt Romney in the fall are divided over what to do about U.S. troops in Afghanistan: 48% favor removing them as soon as possible, while 46% support maintaining U.S. forces there until the situation has stabilized.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted April 4-15, 2012 among 1,494 adults, including 1,164 registered voters, finds that public support for keeping troops in Afghanistan has reached a new low.

Just 32% of the public now says that the U.S. should keep troops in Afghanistan until the situation there has stabilized, while 60% favor removing the troops as soon as possible. In May 2011, the public was evenly divided over removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan (48% remove troops vs. 47% keep troops there).

Support for keeping U.S. forces in Afghanistan has declined over the past year among Republicans, Democrats and independents. For the first time in a Pew Research Center survey, as many Republicans (48%) favor removing U.S. forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible as support keeping the troops there until the situation is stabilized (45%).

As recently as a month ago, a majority of Republicans (53%) said they favored staying in Afghanistan until the situation stabilized, while 41% favored a troop withdrawal.

Currently, 66% of Democrats and 62% of independents say the U.S. should remove troops as soon as possible, while about three-in-ten (29%) in each group favors keeping forces in Afghanistan.

The proportion of independents who favor a troop pullout has increased 11 points since last May (from 51%) immediately after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Over this period, the percentage of Democrats favoring a troop withdrawal has increased 16 points (from 50% in May)

Growing support for a troop pullout comes as public assessments of the war effort have reached their lowest point since the fall of 2009. Currently, just 38% say the military effort is going very or fairly well, while almost half (49%) say that it is going not too or not at all well. Just a month ago, about half (51%) said that things were going very or fairly well there.

Among partisans, just four-in-ten Democrats (41%) and Republicans (40%) offer positive assessments of the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan, while about half offer negative assessments. Last month, majorities of Democrats (56%) and Republicans (52%) said the military effort was going well.

The Trayvon Martin killing continued to top the public’s news interest last week as prosecutors in Florida filed a second-degree murder charge against George Zimmerman, the neighborhood watch volunteer who shot the African American 17-year-old.

About a third of the public (32%) says they followed news about the charges against Zimmerman more closely than any other news last week, according to the latest weekly News Interest Index survey, conducted April 12-15, 2012, among 1,002 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The controversy over the shooting has been the most closely followed story for four straight weeks.

With the presidential contest shifting toward the fight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, news about the 2012 campaign topped coverage last week, making up 22% of the newshole. Still, as prosecutors launched the legal case against Zimmerman, coverage of developments in the Trayvon Martin case was up sharply from one week earlier. Last week, the Trayvon Martin story accounted for 17% of coverage, up from 7% one week earlier, according to the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ).

Though the deadly encounter between Martin and Zimmerman occurred on Feb. 26, the controversy did not become a major national story for several more weeks. As has been case since mid-March, African Americans are paying much closer attention to this story than whites are.  Almost seven-in-ten non-Hispanic blacks (69%) say this was their top story, while 63% say they followed this news very closely.  About a quarter (27%) of non-Hispanic whites say this was their top story, while 30% say they followed the Zimmerman news very closely.

For whites, about as many followed the Zimmerman story most closely (27%) as followed news about the 2012 campaign that closely (22%). The murder charge against Zimmerman was clearly the top story for Democrats and independents. Among Republicans, about as many say their top story was the elections (30%) as say it was the developments in Florida (23%).

Overall, 19% of the public says the 2012 campaign was their top story, as Rick Santorum dropped out of the GOP race and partisans fought over a Democratic consultant’s comments about Ann Romney. Republicans (30%) are twice as likely as Democrats or independents (15%) to say campaign news was the story they followed most closely. About a third of the public (32%) followed election stories very closely, including 43% of Republicans, 36% of Democrats and 23% of independents.

The economy was the top story for 16% of the public, and 39% followed news on this topic very closely. The economy made up 6% of the newshole.

Other topics were of less interest to the public.  Just 22% very closely followed news about North Korea’s failed attempt to launch a rocket carrying a satellite; this was the top story for 7% of the public and comprised 5% of coverage.

International efforts to stop political violence in Syria, which led to a tense cease-fire between government troops and rebels, was followed very closely by 14% and was the top story for 3% of Americans. This story made up 4% of the newshole.

Few people closely followed news about the U.S. Justice Department suing Apple and several book publishers for allegedly fixing the price of electronic books. Just 7% of the public followed this story very closely. It was the top story for 1%.  According to PEJ, the lawsuit accounted for 3% of coverage.

These findings are based on the most recent installment of the weekly News Interest Index, an ongoing project of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. The index, building on the Center’s longstanding research into public attentiveness to major news stories, examines news interest as it relates to the news media’s coverage. The weekly survey is conducted in conjunction with The Project for Excellence in Journalism’s News Coverage Index, which monitors the news reported by major newspaper, television, radio and online news outlets on an ongoing basis. In the most recent week, data relating to news coverage were collected April 9-15, and survey data measuring public interest in the top news stories of the week were collected April 12-15, 2012, from a nationally representative sample of 1,002 adults.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and nativity and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Some of the analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted April 12-15, 2012, among a national sample of 1,002 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (601 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 401 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 198 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see:  http://people-press.org/methodology/.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race, Hispanic origin and region to parameters from the March 2011 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey and population density to parameters from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status, based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Sample sizes and sampling errors for other subgroups are available upon request.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

The federal budget deficit is now viewed as more important than in the past. Nearly three-quarters of voters (74%) say the deficit will be very important, compared with 69% in 2010 and 2008, and just 55% in 2004.

By contrast, terrorism is viewed as much less important than during those campaigns. Currently, 59% say that terrorism will be very important to their vote, down from 71% in 2010 and 68% in 2008.

Immigration also has lost ground as a voting issue. Currently, 42% of voters rate immigration as very important, down 16 points since August 2010. Fewer voters also rate Afghanistan as very important today (46%) than did so during the midterm campaign two years ago (59% in August 2010).

As in recent campaigns, social issues rank relatively low in importance. About four-in-ten (39%) say that abortion will be very important to their vote, 34% rate birth control as very important, and just 28% say the same about gay marriage – the lowest percentage for any issue.

Dueling Partisan Agendas

Overwhelming percentages of Republicans, Democrats and independents rate the economy and jobs as very important voting issues. However, there are substantial partisan differences over the importance of other issues – including the environment, the federal budget deficit, education, Medicare and birth control.

Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) say that the environment will be very important to their vote this fall. Just 43% of independents and 26% of Republicans rate the environment as very important. The environment ranks near the top of the Democrats’ agenda; for Republicans, it ranks last among 18 issues tested.

Democratic voters also are more likely than Republicans to view education (by 23 points), birth control (16 points), Medicare (15 points) and health care (10 points) as very important issues.

By contrast, the federal budget deficit is viewed as very important by larger percentages of Republican (86%) and independent voters (76%), than Democrats (63%). Republicans also are more likely than Democrats to rate taxes (by 14 points) and abortion (11 points) as very important. There also is a modest gap over the economy, with 92% of GOP voters and 83% of Democrats rating it as very important.

The partisan differences in views of the importance of issues among voters are comparable to the gaps found among the general public in the Pew Research Center’s annual policy priorities survey, conducted in January.

Shifting Voter Concerns

In August 2004, just 36% of Republican voters rated the budget deficit as a very important issue to their vote. Among 11 issues tested, it ranked at the bottom, along with the environment (38%).

The percentage of GOP voters saying the deficit is very important increased 25 points between August 2004 and May 2008 – and has risen another 25 points since then (to 86%). In the current survey, only the economy ranks higher among Republican voters (92% very important).

The deficit rose in importance among Democrats from 2004 to 2008, before falling in 2010. Currently, 63% of Democrats say the budget deficit will be very important to their vote, which is largely unchanged from 2010 (62%), but down from 2008 (80%).

Immigration and gay marriage have slipped as voting priorities among Republican voters. About half of Republican voters (47%) say the issue of immigration will be very important to their vote; in 2010, 64% rated immigration as very important and in 2008 63% did so. Immigration also has fallen in importance among independents. Only about four-in-ten (37%) independent voters now view the issue as very important, down 23 points from August 2010.
The percentage 0f GOP voters viewing gay marriage as very important has fallen 13 points, from 49% to 36%, since August 2004. There has been far less change in opinions among Democrats and independents, who have consistently rated this lower in importance than have Republicans.

Terrorism also has declined in importance as a voting issue, though in this case the change has occurred among Republicans, Democrats and independents. As recently as August 2010, 79% of Republicans and 71% of independents said the issue of terrorism would be very important to their vote in that fall’s midterm election. Today, 66% of Republicans and 52% of independents rate terrorism as very important. Democrats also view terrorism as somewhat less important than in previous campaigns (60% today, 68% in 2010).

Gender Gap in Issue Importance

There are several issues, including education, birth control, health care and abortion, that rate as more important for women than men. Nearly eight-in-ten women (79%) say that education will be very important to their vote this fall, compared with 65% of men.

Birth control ranks relatively low in importance among both female and male voters. Still, more women than men say birth control will be very important to their vote (40% vs. 27%). Among voters younger than 50, nearly twice as many women (46%) as men (25%) rate this as very important.

Women also are more likely than men to view health care (by 11 points), abortion (10 points), the environment (nine points) and Medicare (nine points) as very important voting issues.

Energy is the only issue that more men than women voters view as very important (66% vs. 58%). On most issues, including the economy, jobs, foreign policy and terrorism, there are no significant gender differences.

Young voters backed Obama over McCain by a 66% to 32% margin in 2008, and continue to support him over Romney by 61% to 33%. However, whites under 30 are now divided (48% Obama, 46% Romney). In 2008, they supported Obama over McCain by 10 points, (54% to 44%).

Fully 95% of blacks back Obama for reelection – identical to the black vote for Obama in 2008. Hispanic registered voters back Obama by a 67% to 27% margin. The Hispanic vote was 67% Obama, 31% McCain four years ago. These figures also are consistent with a Pew Hispanic Center survey of 557 Latino registered voters in December, in which 68% backed Obama and 23% Romney despite widespread dissatisfaction with Obama’s immigration policies. (For more see “As Deportations Rise to Record Levels, Most Latinos Oppose Obama’s Policy,” Dec. 28, 2011.)

Obama has lost support among several groups: Obama carried the independent vote by a margin of 52% to 44% in 2008. Today, 42% of independents favor him, while 48% back Romney. Obama also is faring worse among lower-income voters and those with less education than he did in 2008.

Obama trails Romney by a wide margin among white voters (54% Romney, 39% Obama), though that is little changed from 2008. But Obama has lost ground among certain groups of white voters. In 2008, whites with household incomes under $50,000 favored McCain over Obama by a slim 51% to 47% margin. Today, lower-income whites favor Romney over Obama by a 16-point margin (54% to 38%).

By contrast, Obama is running about the same as he did in 2008 among whites with higher incomes and college degrees. He trails Romney by 12 points among whites with family incomes of $50,000 or more and runs about even among white college graduates.

There is a greater gap between white men and white women today, not because white women have moved toward Obama, but because white men have moved away from him. White men gave McCain a 16-point edge four years ago (57% McCain vs. 41% Obama). This has widened to a 26-point lead for Romney today, 60% to 34%.

White independent voters, who favored McCain slightly in 2008 (49% McCain vs. 47% Obama), are leaning more Republican this year. About half of white independent voters (53%) support Romney, while just 37% favor Obama; 10% are undecided.

2012 Campaign Dynamics

Obama’s lead over Romney has narrowed since last month, when he had a 12-point advantage, though it is comparable to margins from earlier this year. While Obama’s advantage has declined since March, there is little to suggest a specific problem or campaign event as having a critical effect.

While there have been debates over issues related to gender, the rise and fall in Obama’s support has largely crossed gender lines, with a fairly consistent gender gap over time. For example, since March, Obama’s support among both men and women has slipped five percentage points.

Independent voters remain up for grabs. In the current survey, 48% favor Romney while 42% back Obama. A month ago, it was 47% Obama, 44% Romney.

Swing Voters

With more than six months to go until the election, many independents have yet to commit to either Obama or Romney. While 90% of independents express a preference, only 66% say they are certain about how they will vote.

More specifically, of the 48% of independents who favor Romney, some say they only lean toward him (5%) or say there is still a chance they might vote for Obama this year (6%).  Similarly, of the 42% who favor Obama, some either just lean toward him (3%) or say there is still a chance they might vote for Romney (10%). Added together with the 10% of independents who have no preference between the two, fully a third (33%) of independents are still uncommitted or “swing” voters.

This is a significantly smaller swing vote than was the case at the end of the primary season four years ago. In June 2008, 33% of all registered voters, and fully 46% of independent voters, remained uncommitted. Today, just 23% of voters, and 33% of independent voters, are swing voters.

This is not uncommon when an incumbent is up for reelection and voters feel they have a clearer sense of the options before them. In June 2004, just 21% of registered voters were swing voters, including only 28% of independents.

Obama Approval Little Changed

Currently, 46% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president while about as many (45%) disapprove. In March, 50% approved of Obama’s job performance; 41% disapproved. In February, 47% approved and 43% disapproved.

Obama continues to draw overwhelming support from Democrats (85% approve). Just 11% of Republicans approve of the way he is handling his job as president, while 85% disapprove. More independents disapprove (50%) than approve (40%) of Obama’s job performance. That represents a change from March and February, when Obama’s job rating among independents was almost evenly divided. In March, 45% of independents approved of Obama’s job performance, while 42% disapproved.