How Serious Is Polling’s Cell-Only Problem?
According to government statistics released last month, nearly 13% of U.S. households cannot now be reached by the typical telephone survey because they have only a cell phone and no landline telephone, and the share of Americans who are cell-only is increasing rapidly. To monitor this problem, the Pew Research Center conducted four studies in […]
What’s Missing from National RDD Surveys? The Impact of the Growing Cell-Only Population
Cell-Only Voters Not Very Different: Fewer Registered, More First-time Voters
Are National Polls Reliable Predictors of Midterm Elections?
The Cell Phone Challenge to Survey Research
Summary of Findings A growing number of Americans rely solely on a cell phone for their telephone service, and many more are considering giving up their landline phones. This trend presents a challenge to public opinion polling, which typically relies on a random sample of the population of landline subscribers. A new study of the […]
Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative
Summary of Findings Faced with a growing number of unsolicited telephone calls and armed with increasingly sophisticated technology for screening their calls, more Americans are refusing to participate in telephone polls than was the case just six years ago. Yet a survey research experiment to gauge the effects of respondent cooperation on survey quality indicates […]
Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey
Public Opinion Quarterly 70: 759-779 (2006) – This article provides more extensive analysis of data from the study reported in Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative.
Screening Likely Voters: A Survey Experiment
Introduction and Summary Traditionally, pollsters trying to accurately assess voter intentions have struggled with a basic problem — figuring out who actually is going to show up to vote. In the 2000 election campaign, sharp fluctuations in the Gallup Organization’s daily tracking poll were blamed by some on difficulties in nailing down likely voters. Similar […]
Consequences of Reducing Nonresponses in a National Telephone Survey
Online Polling Offer Mixed Results
The potential for conducting public opinion surveys online is a hot topic today. With the Internet’s tremendous growth, an online poll can now compile literally tens of thousands of opinions quickly and at a fraction of the cost of traditional telephone surveys. Already many commercial websites invite people to voice their views on a range […]
Conservative Opinions Not Underestimated, But Racial Hostility Missed
Introduction and Summary A unique survey research experiment finds that public opinion polls, as they are typically conducted, do not understate conservative opinions or support for the Republican Party. Conservative critics of the polls have charged that these surveys are politically biased. A methodological study by the Pew Research Center finds little evidence of this, […]