Sep. 18, 1996

Generic Congressional Measures Less Accurate In Presidential Years

The polling lesson of 1994 was learned first by the Gallup Poll in the 1950′s… that a generic measure of partisan support for House races in a nationwide poll can do a good job of estimating the popular vote for the Congressional election. Consequently, it is an excellent basis for predicting the number of seats […]

Jun. 5, 1996

Bill Clinton’s Big Lead and The Electoral College

Also: Tax Cuts and Deficit Reduction … In What Context?; Chance Error and Horse Race Leads

Apr. 26, 1996

Bill Clinton’s Solid Lead

Bill Clinton’s lead in the polls is impressive compared to other early front runners in recent presidential elections. His margin over Bob Dole is large, consistent and trending upward. Only Ronald Reagan in 1984 enjoyed all of these advantages. Four out of the six nationwide surveys conducted in early to mid-April show that Clinton’s lead […]

Mar. 14, 1996

Polls Trounce Pundits In Forecasting Primaries

Also: Wither The Perot Voter; Polling On The Buchanan Message; And You Think The Republican Party is Divided

Feb. 13, 1996

Volatility Still to Come in New Hampshire

Also: The Big Poll That Didn’t

Jan. 11, 1996

Chance Error and Bill Clinton’s Political Fortunes

The big difference this week between the CNN/USA/Gallup poll and ABC/WP poll is the first major polling disparity of the ’96 campaign. Gallup’s results indicate that support for the President has tumbled sharply, while the GOP leadership is viewed more favorably than a month ago. In sharp contrast, the ABC/WP poll found no trend away […]

Jan. 3, 1996

The Iowa Echo, And Playing For Second In New Hampshire

Also: Centrism, No Passing Fancy; Small Changes In Question Wording Department

Oct. 30, 1995

Ignore The Horse Race, Pay Attention To The Trend

Also: Poll Apart On Powell; John Paul Who?

Dec. 13, 1994

Trade and the Public

Summary Polls consistently show the American public to be two-minded about trade.  But common wisdom is reversed on this issue.  Instead of being ideologically conservative and operationally liberal, the public is ideologically liberal about international trade — in favor of free trade in principal — and operationally conservative.  It complains that some jobs and products […]