Another Bush Lead Vanishes?
Poll-watchers hoping to learn now how the presidential election will turn out this fall are going to be disappointed. While Texas Gov. George W. Bush has often held the lead over Vice President Al Gore since the end of primary season, Bush’s advantage has been fleeting. More often than not, it is here one day […]
Is Gore Like Bush…or is Bush Like Kennedy?
Political analysts looking for historical parallels can’t decide whether the 2000 presidential race looks more like a rerun of 1988 or 1960. Will Vice President Al Gore take a page from Vice President George Bush’s play book, when he overcame a big deficit in the early polls and soundly defeated Michael Dukakis? At a comparable […]
Gore, Bush and Guns
As a million moms get set to march on behalf of gun control this weekend, it’s not clear how this issue will play in voter decisions in the fall. The conventional wisdom has held for a long time that while proponents of more restrictions on firearms outnumber opponents, it’s intensity that counts at the ballot […]
The Public Affairs Gender Gap
In addition to regularly tracking news interest, the Pew Research Center has periodically tested the public’s knowledge of news and current events by including “information” questions on many of its surveys. These information questions are designed to provide insight into how extensively major news stories are understood and absorbed by the public. They cover a […]
So Who’s Ahead?
Voters are having a hard time making up their minds about the presidential candidates and it is showing up in the divergent results of the horse race polls. Unlike four years ago, at this point in the campaign the national polls provide little insight as to who will win the White House in November. The […]
The Two Strains of Swing Voters
With all eyes now firmly focused on a general election match-up between Al Gore and George W. Bush, the big question is which way independents will go — particularly those independents who have been supporting John McCain. While McCain’s popularity has focused more attention on this crucial bloc, independents are the swing voters in every […]
What ’McCain Voter’?
For Al Gore and George W. Bush, the McCain vote has become the holy grail of the presidential race, the swing vote each man thinks he needs to put him over the top. But this line of reasoning has one big problem: there is no “McCain vote” — the exit data from the primaries show […]
The Religious Landscape in Upcoming GOP Primary States
The religious profile of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party suggests that Senator John McCain’s attack on certain Christian Right leaders may cloud his chances to succeed in Southern states, as well as certain Midwestern and Western states where white evangelicals(1) make up the largest religious bloc of voters. This group comprises […]
A Gender War at the Ballot Box
Usually, the differences between Republican and Democratic voters in the primaries are socioeconomic. Republicans, it can safely be said, are generally richer and better educated. But that was not the big difference in the New Hampshire primary. The parties split principally along gender lines: men flocked to the Republican primary, while women chose to vote […]
Bush Faces Stature Gap, Bradley a Gender Gap
Notes from the New Hampshire Exit Polls
Bradley Deficit Daunting; Bush Closer
The New Hampshire Polls
Independents Drive New Hampshire Poll Shifts
Also: The Civilian-Military Gap Flap
Also: Early Issue Advertising
Does an early lead in the polls usually hold up?
A stream of candidate announcements and polls showing Texas Governor George W. Bush leading Vice President Al Gore have spurred interest in the 2000 presidential contest. But with the nominating conventions still more than 16 months away, what do these early polls mean for would-be nominees? A look back at nearly 40 years of early […]
Online Polling Offer Mixed Results
The potential for conducting public opinion surveys online is a hot topic today. With the Internet’s tremendous growth, an online poll can now compile literally tens of thousands of opinions quickly and at a fraction of the cost of traditional telephone surveys. Already many commercial websites invite people to voice their views on a range […]
Good Times Trump Clinton Troubles
The Clinton-Lewinsky scandal was not a direct factor in the election outcome: As many people voted for Clinton as against him, according to exit polls. But a perception of Republican preoccupation with the inquiry — epitomized by scandal ads targeted against Democrats in key House races last week — may have fueled the late Democratic […]
The Generic House Ballot and Committed Views on Clinton
Several September polls show Republicans with more support than Democrats among likely voters in House races nationwide. But Pew Research Center trend studies find no clear evidence that the White House sex scandal has Democratic voters any more dispirited about voting this fall than they were earlier in the year or in 1994, the last […]
Post Cold War Attitudes Toward the Use of Force
Introduction By the summer of 1941, the Germans had defeated the French, driven the British army into the sea and were attempting to bomb London into submission. The Gallup Poll took the extraordinary effort of conducting a poll in each of the then 48 states asking: “If you were asked to vote today on […]
Dole Appeal Nearly Record Low
As the 1996 election campaign draws to an end, Bob Dole rates as one of the least appealing major party presidential candidates of almost four decades, according to an analysis of favorability ratings by Larry Hugick, director of political surveys at Princeton Survey Research Associates. He ranks 19th out of 20 candidates since 1960. Bill […]
Generic Congressional Measures Less Accurate In Presidential Years
The polling lesson of 1994 was learned first by the Gallup Poll in the 1950′s… that a generic measure of partisan support for House races in a nationwide poll can do a good job of estimating the popular vote for the Congressional election. Consequently, it is an excellent basis for predicting the number of seats […]