May Either Man Win
With each twist and turn in this extraordinary election saga, commentators have marveled at the public’s patience with the uncertainty and wondered when it would run out. The simple fact is that most Americans have been tolerant and temperate for the same reason that the election was so close in the first place. George W. […]
Attentive Swing Voters Lean Toward Gore; Inattentive Voters Are Split
As the presidential campaign moves into the home stretch, two distinctly different groups of swing voters may well determine the outcome. Attentive swing voters — those who have followed the campaign relatively closely and are just as likely to vote as those who have made up their minds — currently favor Al Gore and strongly […]
The Empty Center of Campaign 2000
If you are expecting to soon find out what the election will turn on now that the debates are over, you’re going to be disappointed. In fact, you may be puzzled about the whys of the outcome even after we know the winner of campaign 2000. This is a very different kind of election. Not […]
Another Bush Lead Vanishes?
Poll-watchers hoping to learn now how the presidential election will turn out this fall are going to be disappointed. While Texas Gov. George W. Bush has often held the lead over Vice President Al Gore since the end of primary season, Bush’s advantage has been fleeting. More often than not, it is here one day […]
Is Gore Like Bush…or is Bush Like Kennedy?
Political analysts looking for historical parallels can’t decide whether the 2000 presidential race looks more like a rerun of 1988 or 1960. Will Vice President Al Gore take a page from Vice President George Bush’s play book, when he overcame a big deficit in the early polls and soundly defeated Michael Dukakis? At a comparable […]
Gore, Bush and Guns
As a million moms get set to march on behalf of gun control this weekend, it’s not clear how this issue will play in voter decisions in the fall. The conventional wisdom has held for a long time that while proponents of more restrictions on firearms outnumber opponents, it’s intensity that counts at the ballot […]
The Public Affairs Gender Gap
In addition to regularly tracking news interest, the Pew Research Center has periodically tested the public’s knowledge of news and current events by including “information” questions on many of its surveys. These information questions are designed to provide insight into how extensively major news stories are understood and absorbed by the public. They cover a […]
So Who’s Ahead?
Voters are having a hard time making up their minds about the presidential candidates and it is showing up in the divergent results of the horse race polls. Unlike four years ago, at this point in the campaign the national polls provide little insight as to who will win the White House in November. The […]
The Two Strains of Swing Voters
With all eyes now firmly focused on a general election match-up between Al Gore and George W. Bush, the big question is which way independents will go — particularly those independents who have been supporting John McCain. While McCain’s popularity has focused more attention on this crucial bloc, independents are the swing voters in every […]
What ’McCain Voter’?
For Al Gore and George W. Bush, the McCain vote has become the holy grail of the presidential race, the swing vote each man thinks he needs to put him over the top. But this line of reasoning has one big problem: there is no “McCain vote” — the exit data from the primaries show […]
The Religious Landscape in Upcoming GOP Primary States
The religious profile of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party suggests that Senator John McCain’s attack on certain Christian Right leaders may cloud his chances to succeed in Southern states, as well as certain Midwestern and Western states where white evangelicals(1) make up the largest religious bloc of voters. This group comprises […]
A Gender War at the Ballot Box
Usually, the differences between Republican and Democratic voters in the primaries are socioeconomic. Republicans, it can safely be said, are generally richer and better educated. But that was not the big difference in the New Hampshire primary. The parties split principally along gender lines: men flocked to the Republican primary, while women chose to vote […]
Bush Faces Stature Gap, Bradley a Gender Gap
Notes from the New Hampshire Exit Polls
Bradley Deficit Daunting; Bush Closer
The New Hampshire Polls