2004 Publications

Public Opinion Little Changed by Presidential Election

Familiar Divides, Post-Election Disengagement

Religion and the Presidential Vote

Bush's Gains Broad-Based

Pre-Election Polls Largely Accurate

Lessons From Campaign '04

Voters Liked Campaign 2004, But Too Much ‘Mud-Slinging’

Moral Values: How Important?

Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

No Impact Detected from bin Laden Tape

Swing Voters Slow to Decide, Still Cross-Pressured

Follow-up Interviews Find

Candidates Battle Over First-Time Voters, Mothers

A Closer Look at Key Groups

Voters Impressed with Campaign

But News Coverage Gets Lukewarm Ratings

Polls Apart

by Andrew Kohut, President, Pew Research Center
Special to the New York Times

Race Tightens Again, Kerry’s Image Improves

Democrats, Blacks Less Confident in Accurate Vote Count

Debate Coverage Viewed Favorably

News Audiences Differ on Horse Race

Kerry Wins Debate, But Little Change in Candidate Images

Bush 49%-Kerry 44% Among Likely Voters

Young People More Engaged, More Uncertain

Debates More Important to Young Voters

Bush Margin Widens Again, Despite Vulnerabilities

When Presidential Debates Matter

Pew Research Center Commentary

Party Affiliation: What it is and What it Isn’t

Iraq Support Steady in Face of Higher Casualties

Most Say Al Qaeda Is Weaker Than Before 9/11

Kerry Support Rebounds, Race Again Even

Strong Interest in Debates

Views of Islam Remain Sharply Divided

Plurality Sees Islam as More Likely to Encourage Violence

GOP the Religion-Friendly Party

But Stem Cell Issue May Help Democrats

Foreign Policy Attitudes Now Driven by 9/11 and Iraq

Eroding Respect for America Seen as Major Problem

Public Faults Bush on Economy – 55% Say Jobs are Scarce

Kerry Makes Gains on Issues, Bush Maintains Leadership Image Advantage

Democrats Gain Edge in Party Identification

Bush Holds Modest Advantage Among Veterans

Democratic Party Image Improvement

Democrats More Confident, Kerry Faring Better in Battleground States

9/11 Commission has Bipartisan Support

Horse Race Polls Not More Variable This Year

Lead Changes Contribute to Erroneous Perception

Reading the Polls on Gay Marriage and the Constitution

Pew Research Center Pollwatch

More News Is Not Necessarily Good News

by Andrew Kohut, Director
Special to the New York Times

Voters More Engaged, But Campaign Gets Lukewarm Ratings

Choice of President Matters More in 2004

Swing Vote Smaller Than Usual, But Still Sizable

Compared to '92, '96, '00

Public Support for War Resilient

Bush's Standing Improves

News Audiences Increasingly Politicized

Choice of President Matters More in 2004

Bottom-Line Pressures Now Hurting Coverage, Say Journalists

Press Going Too Easy on Bush

Global Gender Gaps

By Nicole Speulda and Mary McIntosh

Iraq Prison Scandal Hits Home, But Most Reject Troop Pullout

Why the Polls Don’t Add Up

by Andrew Kohut, Director
Special to the New York Times

Bush Ratings Rise Even as Iraq Concerns Continue

Vietnam Parallel Rejected

Abortion a More Powerful Issue for Women

Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative

Even as response rates to telephone surveys continue to decline, this study finds that carefully conducted polls continue to obtain representative samples of the public and provide accurate data about the American public.

Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey

Public Opinion Quarterly 70: 759-779 (2006)
This article provides more extensive analysis of data from the study reported in Polls Face Growing Resistance, But Still Representative.

Public Support for War is Steady, But Bush Job Ratings Slip

After Falluja

Belief that Jews were Responsible for Christ’s Death Increases

Prevalent Among Young People, Minorities and 'Passion of Christ' Viewers

Bush Support Steady in Wake of Clarke Criticisms

Kerry Issue Advantage Ebbs As Voter Opinion Fluctuates

Far More Voters Believe Election Outcome Matters

But Many Already Wary Of Negative Tone

A Year After Iraq War

Mistrust of America in Europe Ever Higher, Muslim Anger Persists

Three-in-Ten Voters Open to Persuasion

Swing Voters Criticize Bush on Economy, Support Him on Iraq

The C-SPAN Audience

After 25 Years…

Gay Marriage a Voting Issue, But Mostly for Opponents

Constitutional Amendment Rates as Low Priority

A Global Generation Gap

Adapting to a New World

Democratic Primary Campaign Impresses Voters

Bush Personal Image Tumbles

Democratic Candidates Face Southern Voters

Southern Democrats More Culturally Conservative, Not So Different Otherwise

A Good Day for the Pollsters

The Accuracy of Pre-Election Tracking Polls in New Hampshire

A Year of Contention at Home and Abroad

2003 Year-end Report

Kerry’s Broad Base, Dean’s High Negatives

Notes From the New Hampshire Exit Polls

Iraq Support Stable, Bush Not Seen as Unilateralist

41% Worry U.S. Will Leave Iraq Too Soon

All the Presidents’ Numbers

New York Times

Economy and Anti-Terrorism Top Public’s Policy Agenda

Dean Seen as More Liberal than Other Leading Candidates

Americans and Canadians

The North American Not-so-odd Couple

Cable and Internet Loom Large in Fragmented Political News Universe

Perceptions of Partisan Bias Seen as Growing, Especially by Democrats