Just two years earlier, in 2009, a clear majority (54%) opposed gay marriage while just 37% favored it. In 1996, when Pew Research first asked about letting gay couples marry legally, almost two-thirds of the public (65%) opposed the idea, and just 27% favored it.

There continue to be substantial generational, partisan and racial differences over gay marriage. Since the 1990s, however, support has increased across most demographic and political groups.

The shift in opinion has been driven in no small part by generational change. Millennials (born after 1980) are the most in favor of gay marriage (64% favor), followed by Gen Xers, born between 1965 and 1980 (46%). There is less support among Baby Boomers (37%), born 1946 to 1964, and members of the Silent Generation (32%), born 1928 to 1945.

A majority of Democrats (57%) favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally, as do 51% of independents. By comparison, just 23% of Republicans favor same-sex marriage while 71% are opposed. In recent years, support for gay marriage has risen sharply among Democrats and independents, while Republicans’ views have shown far less change.

Both whites and blacks have become more likely to favor marriage rights for gays in recent years, but the increase in support has been larger among whites. In 2011, 46% off whites and 36% of blacks said they favored allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally.

(For more on attitudes of religious groups toward gay marriage, see “Religion and Attitudes toward Same-Sex Marriage,”Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, Feb. 7, 2012.)

Most Say Homosexuality Should Be Accepted

Since the 1990s, there also has been an increase in the percentage of Americans saying that homosexuality should be accepted by society. In March 2011, 58% said that homosexuality should be accepted by society, while a third (33%) said it should be discouraged.

In 1994 and 1995, when the Pew Research Center first began asking about this topic, opinion was about evenly divided. But by 2000, slightly more said homosexuality should be accepted by society than said it should be discouraged (50% vs. 41%).

In 2006, 51% said homosexuality should be accepted, while 38% said it should be discouraged. In 2011, support for societal acceptance of homosexuality again increased, to 58%.

In a Pew Research Center survey conducted in early October, 57% of lower-income Republican and Republican-leaning voters said the government does too little for poor people. Just 18% said it does too much.

By contrast, higher-income Republicans took the opposite view; by roughly two-to-one (44% to 21%) Republicans with incomes of $75,000 or more said the government does too much, not too little, for poor people.

This is not to say that lower-income Republicans have a better view of the federal government generally. They are just as distrustful of government and angry at government these days as are higher-income Republicans. But in a December 2011 poll, lower-income Republicans expressed a decidedly different view about the fairness of the economic system than did those with higher incomes. Republicans and GOP leaners with family incomes of less than $30,000 were much more likely than those with incomes of $75,000 or more to say the economic system unfairly favors the wealthy, that Wall Street does more harm than good, and that a few rich people and corporations have too much power.

While they differ from higher-income Republicans, lower-income Republicans also differ from Democrats on many of these issues. For example, in October, 72% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters said the government doesn’t do enough for poor people, compared with the slimmer 57% majority of lower-income Republicans.

But while Americans are hearing more and more about class conflict, there is little indication that they are increasingly divided along these lines. People don’t necessarily want to take money from the wealthy; they just want a better chance to get rich themselves. They care about policies that give everyone a fair shot — a distinction that candidates in both parties should understand as they head into the 2012 campaigns.

An awareness of economic inequality is not new. Pew surveys going back to 1987 have found an average of 75 percent of the American public thinking that the “rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer.” As far back as 1941, 60 percent of respondents told the Gallup poll that there was too much power in the hands of a few rich people and large corporations in the United States.

Read the full article.

Romney Gets 1% of “True Conservative” Voters.  A quarter of Iowa caucus voters said the most important candidate quality was that they be a “true conservative.” Among these voters, just 1% supported Romney; 37% backed Paul and 36% supported Santorum.

Number of Late Deciders Spikes. Nearly half of Iowa caucus voters (46%) said they decided their vote on the day of the caucuses or in the days leading up to them. Four years ago, 30% said they decided on the day of the voting or in the three days before. Santorum won about a third of the votes from late deciders, more than any other candidate.

The Issue Divides. Just 13% said that abortion was the most important issue in choosing a candidate; these voters overwhelmingly backed Santorum. Far more Iowa caucus voters rated the economy (42%) and budget deficit (34%) as most important: The former group supported Romney, while deficit hawks supported Paul.

More Independents. Independents comprised nearly a quarter (23%) of GOP caucus voters, up from 13% four years ago. As was the case in 2008, roughly six-in-ten caucus voters were white evangelicals.

Republicans Split Their Votes. Three-quarters of caucus voters were Republicans and they split their votes almost evenly between Santorum (29%) and Romney (27%). Paul drew a sizable plurality (43%) among self-described independents.

Tea Party vs. Non-Tea Party. Santorum led Romney by 11 points among Tea Party Republicans (and by 19 points among strong GOP supporters of the movement). By contrast, Romney led Santorum by a wide margin (39% to 21%) among non-Tea Party Republicans.

In late 2007, the economic recession was gaining strength and the public’s view of the economy had grown more negative. Only about a quarter (27%) were satisfied with national conditions, not much higher than the current measure of 17%.

In some ways, however, the economic picture looked much brighter. Roughly four-in-ten (41%) said jobs were plentiful in their local community, nearly three times the number from earlier this year (14%). The unemployment rate was 5%, an enviable figure in today’s climate.

Still, the public sensed that the economy was about to take a turn for the worse. In January 2008, 26% said, presciently as it turned out, that the economy would be worse in a year, compared with 20% who said the economy would be better. In a Pew Research Center survey released last week, more said the economy will be better than worse a year from today (28% vs. 18%).

Four years ago, George Bush’s presidency was beginning its final lap. In December 2007, just 31% approved of the way he was handling his job as president; Bush’s approval rating was to sink even lower over the course of the next year, hitting an all-time low of 22% in October 2008. While Barack Obama has lost a large measure of public support over the past three years, his current job rating stands at 46%.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were still major public concerns. In January 2008, 34% cited the economy as the top national problem, while 27% cited the two wars. Today, as the last U.S. troops leave Iraq and thousands of troops remain in Afghanistan, only 4% mention these conflicts as top national problems, while 55% cite the economy.

Politics: Remember Rudy

In November 2007, Rudy Giuliani sat atop the national polls. But Pew Research’s survey of three early primary states found that Giuliani led in none – an ominous sign for the former New York City mayor. He later dropped out of the race without a single primary victory.

In recent polls, Newt Gingrich has been the GOP frontrunner – the fifth Republican candidate to hold that designation this year. But likely Republican primary voters have not ruled out voting for Mitt Romney and support for both Gingrich and Romney is fairly soft – raising the possibility of more turns ahead.

In late 2007, Republican voters were less engaged with the GOP presidential race than they are today. But they expressed a more positive view of the Republican field.

Currently, 52% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say they are giving a lot of thought to the candidates, up from 42% four years ago.

Four years ago, 56% of Republican voters viewed the presidential field as excellent or good, well below the rating Democrats gave their presidential candidates (67% excellent or good). However, just 48% of GOP voters express positive views of the current field.

In 2007, the Democrats were gaining ground in party identification. Based on yearly averages, they held a seven-point advantage over the GOP (35% to 28%), which would increase in 2008 and 2009. Since then the Democrats have lost ground. The percent affiliated with the GOP is comparable to 2007. The number of independents continues to be at or near record levels.

A positive sign for the Republicans is that they have cut into the Democrats’ advantage in “leaned” party identification. This year, 47% say they identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic while 44% identify or lean to the GOP. In 2007, the Democrats held an 11-point lead in leaned party identification.

As in late 2007, the parties share power in Washington. In 2007, the Democrats held majorities in both the House and Senate. Today, Congress itself is divided – the GOP gained control of the House last fall while the Democrats held the Senate, with a narrower majority.

More Frustration with Washington

The public’s trust in government rose dramatically following the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But it declined during the remainder of the Bush presidency, following the war in Iraq, the flawed government response to Hurricane Katrina and other events. By 2007, just 31% said they could trust the government in Washington to do the right thing always or most of the time.

The public’s trust in government has declined even further during Obama’s presidency. In October of this year, just 20% said they could trust the government always or most of the time.

And while views of Congress typically are more negative than positive, there is now record discontent with Congress. Just 20% say they would like to see most members of Congress reelected – 16 points lower than in early 2008 and the lowest percentage ever in a Pew Research Center survey.

A Preview of Pain to Come

The hard economic data from late 2007 provided a preview of the hard times that were coming. The fourth quarter growth in GDP, while positive, was a paltry 1.7%. GDP growth would turn negative the following year, declining by 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The growth rate for the third quarter of this year was hardly robust (2.0%), but much better.

The nation’s debt has grown more than 60% since fiscal year 2007 – from nearly $9 trillion to close to $15 trillion today. The unemployment rate, while a bit lower than earlier this year, is nearly four percentage points higher than it was in December 2007.

There has been a dramatic rise in the number of people facing long-term unemployment. Fully 43% of the unemployed have been out of work for more than 26 weeks; in December 2007, just 17.4% of the unemployed had been out of work that long.

The Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends project has found that long-term unemployment not only takes a severe financial toll, but also can strain personal relationships and erode self-confidence.

The economic downturn has been devastating for many homeowners. The average home price is substantially lower than it was four years ago. Yet these are better times for home buyers: the interest rate for 30-year mortgages is more than two percentage points lower than in late 2007, before the housing crash.

This marks quite a change from the last presidential campaign, when then 72-year-old John McCain faced persistent questions about his age and health. And in 1996, there was widespread concern over 73-year-old Bob Dole’s age. Ronald Reagan confronted perhaps the toughest questions about his age, mostly during his reelection campaign in 1984, but also in 1980. Reagan turned 69 a few weeks before that year’s New Hampshire primary.

McCain’s age, in particular, was on the mind of voters during the 2008 campaign. In February 2008, after McCain won a series of pivotal GOP primaries, voters were asked which single word best described him: “Old” was by far the top response, outnumbering mentions of “honest,” “experienced” and “patriot.” At that time, roughly a third of voters said McCain was too old to be president, which was comparable to the percentage expressing that opinion about Dole in 1996.

Certainly, McCain’s health problems may have contributed to concerns about his age. He had survived three bouts with malignant melanoma, the deadliest form of skin cancer. And McCain still visibly struggled with the serious injuries he had suffered as a POW in Vietnam nearly 40 years earlier.

By all appearances, Gingrich is healthy and vigorous. But there are other reasons why age may end up being less of an issue for the soon-to-be septuagenarian. For one thing, he would not be breaking any age barriers. In 1984, Reagan had to overcome the stigma of being the oldest presidential candidate in the nation’s history. Dole and McCain had the unwelcome distinction of being the oldest to run for a first term. Gingrich’s age also does not particularly distinguish him from current GOP candidates. At 64, Mitt Romney is only four years younger than Gingrich; at 76, Ron Paul is eight years older.

Moreover, the population itself is aging. The fastest-growing segment of the population over the past decade, according to the latest Census, is people age 45 to 62. The next fastest growing segment? Those 62 and older.

The Republican base also is getting older. A 2009 analysis of party identification trends by the Pew Research Center found that the percentage of all Republicans who are 50 and older increased by 10 points – from 36% to 46% – between 1990 and 2009; the percentage of Democrats 50 and older held steady over this period (44% in 2009).

In its most recent political typology, released in May of this year, Pew Research identified a group of Staunch Conservatives, who are highly politically engaged and thus are likely to play a key role in the upcoming GOP primaries. And with 61% of this group 50 and older – making it by far the oldest of the nine typology groups – they would be unlikely to view Gingrich’s age negatively.

Even in a general election against Barack Obama, who will turn 51 in August, it is hard to imagine Gingrich’s age making much difference. Certainly, to young adults, Gingrich might seem old in comparison to Obama. A 2009 report by the Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends Project found that more than half of those under 30 say the average person becomes old even before turning 60. But that view is not shared by older age groups: For those in their 30s and 40s the mean age at which someone becomes “old” is 69. It is even higher –in the early 70s – for those in their 50s or older.

Gingrich is not likely to capture a majority of the youth vote, whether they perceive him as old or not. Younger age groups have voted substantially more Democratic than other age groups in every election since 2004 – when they supported 60-year-old John Kerry over 58-year-old George W. Bush. But if Gingrich wins the nomination, older voters, who will be more in play next November, are likely to view his age as nothing more than a number.

A new Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project survey finds that just 50 per cent of Russians approve of multi-party politics and half consider it a misfortune that the Soviet Union no longer exists. By a margin of 57 to 32 per cent, Russians believe that having a “strong leader” is more important than a democratic government.

This is the conviction that, for more than a decade, fuelled the popularity of Vladimir Putin, but is now beginning to pall. His “look-at-me” style appeared when the economy was on the rise but a combination of inflation and stagnant living standards is prompting many Russian voters once again to signal their unhappiness with the status quo. This search for leaders who will deliver economically holds an important lesson for the Middle East where the democratic tide still swells despite panicked opposition from some and the efforts of others to regulate its tempo.

Writing in the Financial Times, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Pew Research Center President Andrew Kohut assess Russia’s struggles in trying to make the transition to a more open society and what principles for nurturing democracy it suggests for the countries in the Middle East swept up by this year’s Arab Spring.

See the full article (registration required) and also the Pew Global Attitudes Project’s latest report, Confidence in Democracy and Capitalism Wanes in Former Soviet Union.

In the latest Pew Research Center survey, conducted Nov. 9-14, more Americans say they disagree (27%) than agree (20%) with the Tea Party movement.  A year ago, in the wake of the sweeping GOP gains in the midterm elections, the balance of opinion was just the opposite: 27% agreed and 22% disagreed with the Tea Party. At both points, more than half offered no opinion.

Throughout the 2010 election cycle, agreement with the Tea Party far outweighed disagreement in the 60 House districts represented by members of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus. But as is the case nationwide, support has decreased significantly over the past year; now about as many people living in Tea Party districts disagree (23%) as agree (25%) with the Tea Party.

GOP Loses Favorability Advantage in Tea Party Districts

The Republican Party’s image also has declined substantially among people who live in Tea Party districts. Currently, 41% say they have a favorable opinion of the GOP, while 48% say they have an unfavorable view. As recently as March of this year, GOP favorability was 14 points higher (55%) in these districts, with just 39% offering an unfavorable opinion

Among the public, 36% now say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, down from 42% in March.

By comparison, opinions of the Democratic Party have shifted less – from 50% favorable last summer to 48% in March and 46% in October. The party’s image has remained in negative territory among those living in Tea Party districts throughout this period– currently about four-in-ten (39%) say they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while 50% offer an unfavorable view.

But the steep decline in GOP favorability in Tea Party districts means that these constituencies now view the Republican Party about as negatively as the Democratic Party. As recently as March, GOP favorability exceeded Democratic Party favorability by 15 points (55% vs. 40%). Today, both parties receive about the same rating from people in Tea Party districts (41% favorable for the GOP, 39% for the Democratic Party).

About the Analysis

In this analysis, Tea Party districts are those currently held by the 60 Republicans who identify themselves as members of The Tea Party Caucus in the House of Representatives. This includes 17 freshmen Republicans elected in 2010, as well as 43 incumbents reelected in 2010. The data matches respondents to their Congressional district as closely as possible according to their ZIP code; in cases where a ZIP code includes two districts, the respondent is counted in the district that represents the majority of that ZIP code. There is some error in this matching process. In general, roughly 15% of survey respondents live in these 60 districts. Sample sizes in these districts range between 178 and 462 with an average of 287 in each survey (margin of error approximately plus or minus 7.0%)

The American public is beginning to take notice of the “Occupy movement.” The Pew Research Center’s polling this week finds a growing number of people paying attention to news about the movement. And the Gallup Poll found that among the minority of its respondents who are paying very close attention to the story, there is significantly more approval than disapproval of the Occupy movement’s goals.

This may well be an indicator of how a broader slice of the public comes to view the movement, given the climate of opinion about the issues being raised. Three themes in the data suggest that the public may respond positively to the goals of the Occupy movement, but not necessarily its tactics.

First, fundamental views about economic inequality are long standing. Over the past two decades we have found a very large majority of respondents agreeing with the statement that “this is a country in which the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.” And, since the late 1980s, a growing number of citizens have begun to see the U.S. as a nation divided into two groups: the “haves” and the “have nots.”

Secondly, the public has come to see government policies as catering to the rich and powerful. A forthcoming Pew Research Center report will show large majorities saying that while the government does not do enough for both the middle class and poor people, two in three think it does too much for the wealthy. Unlike the Republican Party, President Obama is not seen by most as catering to the rich. However, just 29 percent of respondents think the president is doing more to help the “have nots” than to help the “haves.”

The third factor is of course the economic climate. Anxiety about economic conditions, and jobs in particular, puts the whole question of fairness front and center for the average American. The public expressed strong disapproval of bank bailouts and auto bailouts, as well as coming to the aid of home owners who took on mortgages they could not afford.

Little wonder that even in an anti-government era, a large majority approved of the financial regulation legislation of 2009. And today the public looks at Wall Street and questions its contribution. Nearly half of Americans (47 percent) say that Wall Street hurts the U.S. economy more than it helps, while 38 percent say it helps more than hurts. (The other 15 percent offer no opinion.)

Peace Through Strength

Among all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 40% agree with the Tea Party movement. For more on the demographics of GOP Tea Party supporters see “Obama Loses Ground in 2012 Reelection Bid,” July 28, 2011.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who agree with the Tea Party are far more likely than other Republicans or Democrats to support the Reagan-era principle of “peace through strength.” And there is broad support among Tea Party Republicans, as well as non-Tea Party Republicans, for maintaining defense spending at current levels. By contrast, far more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want to cut back defense spending.

Yet a majority of Tea Party Republicans and Republican leaners (55%) also approve of reducing military commitments overseas to reduce the budget deficit and the size of the nation’s debt. On this issue, their opinions differ little from Republicans and leaners who do not agree with the Tea Party movement (58%). Among Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, 74% approve of cutting back on military commitments to reduce the national debt.

Middle East: Strong Support for Israel, Criticism of Obama

U.S. policy in the Middle East recently emerged as a campaign issue, with Texas Gov. Rick Perry criticizing Barack Obama’s handling of the Israel-Palestinian dispute.

In late May, Republicans and GOP leaners who agree with the Tea Party movement overwhelmingly sympathized more with Israel than the Palestinians. Fully 79% sympathized more with Israel, compared with 54% of non-Tea Party Republicans and 41% of Democrats and Democratic leaners.

The differences were even starker in views of Obama’s handling of this issue: 68% of Tea Party Republicans said Obama favors the Palestinians too much, compared with just 23% of non-Tea Party Republicans and 8% of Democrats.

There has been greater partisan agreement in opinions about the political changes that are affecting many countries in the Middle East. In early March, amid pro-democracy protests in several Middle Eastern countries and shortly after Hosni Mubarak stepped down as Egypt’s president, 52% of the public said it was more important to have stable governments in the Middle East, even if there were less democracy; 37% said democratic governments are more important even if there were less stability.

Majorities of Tea Party Republicans (56%) and non-Tea Party Republicans (61%) said stable governments were more important, even if it meant less stability. Democrats and Democratic leaners were more divided: 46% said stable governments were more important, even if it meant less democracy, while 45% said democracy was more important, even it meant less stability.

Free Trade Agreements, China

Like the general public, Republican and Republican-leaning supporters of the Tea Party movement are divided over the impact of free trade agreements: 43% say free trade agreements have been a good thing for the U.S. while 44% see them as a bad thing. Republicans who do not agree with the Tea Party also are divided; a narrow majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (53%) say trade agreements have had a positive impact.

Tea Party Republicans are much more supportive of taking a harder line with China in economic policy than are other Republicans or Democrats. Two-thirds (66%) say it is more important to get tougher with China on economic issues; just 30% say it is more important to build a stronger relationship with China on these issues. About four-in-ten non-Tea Party Republicans (42%) and 32% of Democrats and Democratic leaners  prioritize getting tougher with China.

Illegal Immigration

Most Americans support stricter enforcement of immigration laws and tighter border security. But among Tea Party Republicans support for tougher immigration measures is virtually universal – 98% favor stronger enforcement of immigration laws.

Nearly as many (94%) favor Arizona’s tough immigration law, which is tied up in court. The law requires police to verify the legal status of someone they have already stopped or arrested if they suspect that the person is in the country illegally.
Nearly six-in-ten Tea Party Republicans (58%) favor changing the constitution to bar citizenship for children born in the United States to illegal immigrants. Majorities of Democrats (67%) and non-Tea Party Republicans (55%) oppose changing the constitution for this purpose.

The public generally supports a two-fold approach to illegal immigration: a 42% plurality says the priority should be both better border security and stronger enforcement of immigration laws and creating a way for illegal immigrants who are already here to become citizens if they meet certain requirements. Nearly half of Democrats (48%) and non-Tea Party Republicans (46%) say that better border security and finding a way for people here illegally should be given equal priority.

But a substantial majority of Tea Party Republicans (67%) say better border security and stronger enforcement of existing laws should be the primary priority; just 23% favor a dual focus, with equal priority given to tougher security measures and a path to citizenship.

Afghanistan: Support for Troop Presence, Doubts about the Future

In June, shortly before President Obama announced his timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, a majority of Tea Party Republicans (55%) favored maintaining U.S. troops in the country until the situation has stabilized.

Still, 42% supported withdrawing U.S. forces as soon as possible – double the percentage that did so just a year earlier (21%). For more, see “Record Number Favors Removing U.S. Troops from Afghanistan,” June, 21, 2011.

Across the political spectrum, there was little optimism that Afghanistan can maintain a stable government after most U.S. troops leave the country.

Just 30% of Tea Party Republicans said it is likely that Afghanistan can maintain a stable government after most U.S. forces exit, as did 39% of Democrats and 44% of non-Tea Party Republicans.

After Obama’s announcement, the Pew Research Center and The Washington Post conducted a survey about the pace of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. A plurality of Americans (44%) said Obama was handling the withdrawal of combat troops from Afghanistan about right, while 29% said he was not removing them quickly enough, and 14% thought he was removing them too quickly.

The survey had no measure of Tea Party support, but Republicans generally were divided over Obama’s plan for drawing down U.S. forces: 32% said Obama was not removing the troops quickly enough, 28% said he was removing them too quickly, and 25% said he was handling this about right.

For more

Much of the data in this report came from Pew Research’s political typology, which sorts Americans into cohesive groups based on values, political beliefs, and party affiliation. For more, see “Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology” May 4, 2011.

Data also came from the following other reports: “Obama Draws More Confidence than GOP Leaders on Deficit,” Sept. 26, 2011; “Views of Middle East Unchanged by Recent Events,” June 10, 2011; “Record Number Favors Removing U.S. Troops from Afghanistan,” June 21, 2011; “More Blame Wars than Domestic Spending or Tax Cuts for Nation’s Debt,” June 7, 2011; “Public Favors Tougher Border Controls and Path to Citizenship,” Feb. 24, 2011.