October 31, 2010

GOP Likely to Recapture Control of House

About the Survey

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted October 27-30, 2010 among a national sample of 3,005 adults 18 years of age or older living in the continental United States (2,005 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,000 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 439 who had no landline telephone). Interviewing was conducted by Princeton Data Source and
ABT SRBI Inc. under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see: http://www.people-press.org/methodology/

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2009 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2009 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample and adjusts for household size within the landline sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Likely Voter Scale

Likely voter estimates are based on a 7-item turnout scale that includes the following questions: thought, precinct, q9, oftvote, plan1, scale10 and pvote08a. Those who say they have already voted are automatically counted as likely voters. More details about the Pew Research Center’s methodology for estimating likelihood to vote are available at: http://www.people-press.org/methodology/files/UnderstandingLikelyVoters.pdf