October 28, 2008

McCain Support Continues Downward Spiral

Obama Leads by 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted

About the Survey

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,500 adults, 18 years of age or older, from October 23-26, 2008 (1,125 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 375 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 127 who had no landline telephone). Both the landline and cell phone samples were provided by Survey Sampling International.

The combined landline and cell phone sample are weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, and population density to parameters from the March 2007 Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The sample is also weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2007 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the fact that respondents with both landline and cell phones have a greater probability of being included in the sample.

The following table shows the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

Group Sample Size Plus or minus…
Total sample 1,500 3.0 percentage points
Registered voter sample 1,325 3.0 percentage points
Likely voter sample 1198 3.5 percentage points
Republican registered voter sample 361 6.0 percentage points
Democratic registered voter sample 490 5.0 percentage points
Independent registered voter sample 411 5.5 percentage points
Certain McCain voters 449 5.5 percentage points
Certain Obama voters 594 4.5 percentage points
Swing voters 153 9.0 percentage points

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.