Popular Vote A Tossup: Bush 49%, Gore 47%, Nader 4%
Introduction and Summary
The Pew Research Center’s final pre-election poll of 1,301 likely voters, conducted Nov. 2-5, finds 45% backing George W. Bush, 43% for Al Gore, 4% for Ralph Nader, less than 1% supporting Pat Buchanan, and 8% undecided. The Bush margin is well within sampling error, and narrowed slightly over the course of the field period.
An analysis of undecided voters suggest that those in that category who do vote will divide fairly evenly between the two major party candidates. When undecided voters are allocated, the Center’s best estimate of the probable outcome of the popular vote is Bush 49%, Gore 47%, Nader 4% and less than 1% Buchanan. But the contest is so close that we cannot confidently predict the winner of the popular vote.