October 21, 1998

GOP Congressional Lead Not Undercut by Backlash

Methodology

About This Survey

Results for the survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,532 registered voters, 18 years of age or older, during the period October 14-18, 1998. For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For results based on either Form 1 (N=768) or Form 2 (N=764), the sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points. For results based on likely voters (N=789), the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. For results based on registered voters in comptetitive House districts (N=669), the sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

This survey was designed to purposely oversample telephone numbers in 105 congressional districts in which there are competitive races for U.S. House seats in the 1998 elections. Competitive districts were identified using the rankings of three political publications, Congressional Quarterly’s “CQ OnPolitics”, Campaigns and Elections magazine’s “The Political Oddsmaker”, and The Cook Political Report. The remainder of the sample was drawn from telephone numbers in all other congressional districts in the continental United States. However, the final sample was adjusted so that competitive and non-competitive districts are represented in proportion to their actual distribution in the United States.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Survey Methodology in Detail

The sample for this survey is a random digit sample of telephone numbers selected from telephone exchanges in the continental United States. The random digit aspect of the sample is used to avoid “listing” bias and provides representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including not-yet- listed). The design of the sample ensures this representation by random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of their area code, telephone exchange, and bank number.

The telephone exchanges were selected to purposely oversample telephone numbers in 105 congressional districts in which there are competitive races for U.S. House seats in the 1998 elections. Competitive districts were identified using the rankings of three political publications, Congressional Quarterly’s “CQ OnPolitics”, Campaigns and Elections magazine’s “The Political Oddsmaker”, and The Cook Political Report. The remainder of the sample was drawn from telephone numbers in all other congressional districts in the continental United States. However, the final sample was adjusted so that competitive and non-competitive districts are represented in proportion to their actual distribution in the United States.

Within each strata, the first eight digits of the sampled telephone numbers (area code, telephone exchange, bank number) were selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that county’s share of telephone numbers in the U.S. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. A working bank is defined as 100 contiguous telephone numbers containing three or more residential listings.

The sample was released for interviewing in replicates. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. The use of replicates also insures that the regional distribution of numbers called is appropriate. Again, this works to increase the representativeness of the sample.

At least five attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of making a contact with a potential respondent. All interview breakoffs and refusals were re-contacted at least once in order to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. In each contacted household, interviewers asked to speak with the “youngest male 18 or older who is at home.” If there is no eligible man at home, interviewers asked to speak with “the oldest woman 18 or older who is at home.” This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender.

Non-response in telephone interview surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population, and these subgroups are likely to vary also on questions of substantive interest. In order to compensate for these known biases, the sample data are weighted in analysis.

The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most recently available Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (March 1996). This analysis produced population parameters for the demographic characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample characteristics to construct sample weights. In addition, the sample was adjusted to compensate for the oversampling of competitive House districts (see above). The analysis only included households in the continental United States that contain a telephone.

The weights are derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters.